We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Ian Explains: Why big tech will rule the world
Who runs the world? It used to be an easy question to answer, but the next global super power isn’t who you think it is—not the US, not China. In fact, it’s not a country at all ... It’s technology.
On Ian Explains, Ian Bremmer breaks down the three global orders of the current geopolitical landscape.
First is the global security order, where the US is the undisputed leader. It’s the only country that can send soldiers, sailors, and military hardware to every corner of the world. Next there’s the global economic world order, which has no single leader. The US and China are too economically interdependent to couple from each other; the European Union is the world’s largest common market; Japan is a global economic power; India’s economy is growing rapidly … You get the idea.
The third global order isn’t quite here yet but it will bring unprecedented changes to our everyday lives: the digital order. As new artificial intelligence tools like ChatGPT and Midjourney hit the market, techn firms control increasingly large data sets about massive swaths of the world’s population—what we think, what we feel, how we use the internet. And social media companies can impact elections with a simple tweak of an algorithm.
Who will hold these companies to account as they release new, more advanced tools? What will they do with the massive amounts of data they collect on us and our environment? Most importantly, how will technology companies use their power?
For more on the power of Big Tech and advances in AI technology, watch the upcoming episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer on US public television and at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld.
Can we trust AI to tell the truth?
Is it possible to create artificial intelligence that doesn't lie?
On GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, cognitive scientist, psychologist, and author Gary Marcus sat down to unpack some of the major recent advances–and limitations–in the field of generative AI. Despite large language model tools like ChatGPT doing impressive things like writing movie scripts or college essays in a matter of seconds, there’s still a lot that artificial intelligence can’t do: namely, it has a pretty hard time telling the truth.
So how close are we to creating AI that doesn’t hallucinate? According to Marcus, that reality is still pretty far away. So much money and research has gone into the current AI bonanza, Marcus thinks it will be difficult to for developers to stop and switch course unless there’s a strong financial incentive, like Chat Search, to do it. He also believes computer scientists shouldn’t be so quick to dismiss what’s known as “good old fashioned AI,” which are systems that translate symbols into logic based on a limited set of facts and don't make things up the way neural networks do.
Until there is a real breakthrough or new synthesis in the field, Marcus thinks we’re a long way from truthful AI, and incremental updates to the current large language models will continue to generate false information. “I will go on the record now in saying GPT-5 will [continue to hallucinate],” Marcus says, “If it’s just a bigger version trained on more data, it will continue to hallucinate. And the same with GPT-6.”
Watch the full interview on GZERO World, in a new episode premiering on September 8, 2023 on US public television.
Watch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
Global Stage: Global issues at the intersection of technology, politics, and society
GZERO Media and Microsoft have joined forces to launch Global Stage, a partnership to present conversations about critical global issues at the intersection of technology, politics, and society.
On location from prestigious events including Davos, Munich, the UN General Assembly, COP, and more, Global Stage takes you to the frontlines of monumental global gatherings, where pivotal dialogues unravel at the crossroads of technology, politics, and society. Watch our live discussions tackling the world's most urgent challenges, featuring respected leaders and experts from both the public and private sectors who illuminate topics from cybersecurity, AI, and climate change to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Stay engaged throughout the year with thought-provoking livestreams, in-depth interviews, compelling podcasts, and more. Welcome to the Global Stage.
What is a techno-prudential approach to AI governance?
Can the world learn how to govern artificial intelligence before it’s too late?
According to Ian Bremmer, founder and president of GZERO Media and Eurasia Group, AI’s power paradox is that it’s both too powerful to easily govern, but too beneficial to outright ban. In a new video series on AI, Bremmer introduces the idea of “techno-prudentialism.” A mouthful of a word that will almost certainly come to define the way AI is governed, regulated, and controlled.
Techno-prudentialism is the idea that we need to identify and limit risks to global stability posed by AI without choking off innovation and the opportunities that come with it. It’s a tricky tightrope to walk, but it’s similar to how global finance is governed, known as macro-prudentialism. Despite conflict between, say, the US, China, and Europe, they all work together within institutions like the Bank of International Settlements, the IMF, and the Financial Stability Board to keep markets functioning. The do it because global finance is too important to allow it to break.
Techno-prudentialism applies that idea to the AI space. Bremmer lays out the case for a collective, international effort in AI governance, emphasizing the need for global institutions to address the many ways AI could challenge geopolitical stability. As the balance of power shifts towards technology companies in a techno-polar world [HYPERLINK TO TECHNO-POLAR VIDEO], Bremmer envisions these institutions creating a framework that balances AI’s power and benefits, while preventing it from inciting political instability on a global scale.
Insights on AI governance and global stability
Ian Bremmer and Mustafa Suleyman, CEO and co-founder of Inflection AI, delve into the realm of AI governance and its vital role in shaping our rapidly evolving world. Just like the macro-prudential policies that govern global finance, society now find itself in need of techno-prudential policies to ensure that artificial intelligence (AI) flourishes without compromising global stability. AI presents multi-faceted challenges, including disinformation, technology proliferation, and the urgent need to strike a balance between innovation and risk management.
Podcast: Artificial intelligence new rules: Ian Bremmer and Mustafa Suleyman explain the AI power paradox
Listen: Dive into the world of artificial intelligence in our new GZERO World podcast episode. Ian Bremmer, founder of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media, teams up with Mustafa Suleyman, CEO of Inflection AI, to discuss their groundbreaking article titled, “The AI Power Paradox,” recently published in Foreign Affairs magazine. Uncover the explosive growth and potential risks of generative AI and explore Ian and Mustafa’s proposed 5 principles for effective AI governance. Join host Evan Solomon as he delves into the crucial conversation about regulating AI before it spirals out of control and without stifling innovation. Tune in for insights on technology, politics, and securing our global future.
- The geopolitics of AI ›
- How should artificial intelligence be governed? ›
- Making rules for AI … before it’s too late ›
- Governing AI Before It’s Too Late ›
- The AI power paradox: Rules for AI's power ›
- A vision for inclusive AI governance - GZERO Media ›
- Artificial intelligence: How soon will we see meaningful progress? - GZERO Media ›
China’s economy in trouble
China’s economy has averaged about 10% annual growth year over year for the past four decades. It’s undoubtedly the biggest economic success story of our lifetime, but how long can that last?
Shaun Rein, founder and managing director of the Shanghai-based China Market Research Group, sits down with Ian Bremmer on GZERO World to talk China's post-COVID recovery, Xi's crackdown on the private sector, and why the last year has turned him from a bull to a bear on China's economic outlook.
Annual GDP growth has been on a relative decline since 2010, barring a big jump coming out of the pandemic. Decades of infrastructure investment have left local governments drowning in debt. Almost three years of zero-COVID politics ground China’s economy to a halt. Youth unemployment is surging to record highs and expected to keep climbing.
At the same time, President Xi Jinping is moving China away from the pro-investment policies of his predecessors in favor of ideological and national security priorities. But public support for China’s Communist Party is starting to show cracks, especially among citizens in wealthy cities who experienced the brunt of China’s brutal zero-COVID policies.
Can communist ideology mixed with capitalist ambition sustain growth into the future? Is Xi setting up China for another 4 decades of economic success? And what do China’s citizens make of its return to socialist roots?
Watch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
Ian Explains: Why China’s era of high growth is over
Is China still on track to becoming the world’s largest economy? Ian Bremmer breaks down China’s great economic slowdown.
Between 1978 and 2017, China averaged almost 10% year-over-year GDP growth. Decades of pro-investment policies transformed China from a closed, centrally-planned economy to an economic powerhouse that could rival the US.
But President Xi Xinping has been moving China away from the pro-investment policies of his predecessors and back to its socialist roots. In recent years, the government has cracked down on everything from technology to finance to entertainment to foreign investment.
At the same time, 3 years of Zero-Covid policies sapped domestic spending and production. Decades of infrastructure investment have left local governments drowning in debt. China’s once-hot real estate market is in a massive slump. And youth unemployment is surging to record highs, threatening the very social pact that gives the Chinese Communist Party legitimacy in widespread support.
Can China’s communist ideology and capitalist ambition sustain growth into the future? Or does what goes up eventually have to come down?
For more on China’s lagging economy, watch the upcoming episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer on US public television and at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld.