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Is American capitalism still capitalism?
Ian explains why “free market capitalism” looks very different today than in decades past. Recent news that the US government is taking a 10% equity stake in Intel is just one example of Washington moving toward a more state-driven economic model.
While government subsidies for strategic industries like semiconductors may make sense, Ian warns that other industrial policies, like trying to re-shore large-scale manufacturing, risk being backward looking. Ian also argues that much of what passes for capitalism in the US is really oligarchy: corporations using lobbying to secure entrenched advantages and offloading the costs of their business models onto the public.
Meanwhile, China has thrived with state capitalism for 50 years, and the US is increasingly trying to compete by playing the same game. But Ian raises concerns that America’s short political cycles and policy whiplash make it poorly suited for long-term state-led planning, and that the benefits often flow disproportionately to the wealthy.
The bottom line: Ian believes the US needs more capitalism, not less, but it has to be, “capitalism that runs in a competitive environment, where no one gets to capture the political process, and where losses are seen as responsibilities of corporations, just as profits are.”
Are Trump's tariffs the end of the free trade era?
For the last 80 years, America has been a leading advocate of free trade. It built (and benefited from) the rules of the global economic system. But as the Trump administration imposes record tariffs on allies and renegotiates trade agreements around the world, it’s no longer playing by the rules it created. Instead, it's becoming the most protectionist advanced industrial economy in the world. What happens when globalization's biggest backer becomes its biggest critic?
On GZERO World, CNN’s Fareed Zakaria joins Ian Bremmer to discuss President Trump’s tariffs, the rise of protectionism, and US retreat from global leadership, an ideology Zakaria calls the “beating heart” of MAGA. Big economies like China and the EU that rely on trade to maintain growth are increasingly trying to go around the US to make trade deals of their own. But America still has the largest economy in the world. President Trump's trade policies could send shockwaves through the global economic system America has spent generations building. The US has imposed high tariffs on many of its biggest trading partners, and so far, economy appears surprisingly resilient. But is this just the calm before a very big storm?
“The US was the beating heart of the free trade movement, the country that forced all the other countries in the world to open their markets,” Zakaria says, “If you shelter your best companies behind 15, 20% tariff walls, they're just not going to be as competitive.”
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube.Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔). GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
The new global trade wars, with Fareed Zakaria
President Trump’s policies swiftly rewriting the rules of global trade. As the United States imposes tariffs on allies and adversaries alike, do we risk losing our edge? On the GZERO World Podcast, CNN’s Fareed Zakaria joins Ian Bremmer to discuss what happens when globalization’s biggest champion becomes its biggest critic. For the past 80 years, the United States has been the beating heart of the free trade movement, the country that forced all the other countries in the world to open their markets. But now, Washington is tearing up the economic playbook—levying historic tariffs and recasting the world as a high-stakes, winner-take-all, zero-sum game.
Zakaria says we are living through an age of backlash to 30 years of globalization and that the next 10 years will be a period of “slowbalization,” where we'll see a much slower pace of growth and a much more political economy. Bremmer and Zakaria break down America’s retreat from global leadership, shifting power dynamics between the US and China, European pressure to become more self-sufficient, and whether the Trump administration’s economic gamble is worth the risk.
“The United States has gone from the leading advocate of free trade to being the most protectionist advanced industrial country in the world,” Zakaria warns, “We’ve always invited competition from the world’s best. If we move to something else, I think we lose that edge.”
Trump's tariffs are already changing global trade
The Trump administration is imposing tariffs on allies and adversaries alike—15% on the EU, 50% on Brazil, 25% on India. America has become the main driver of global economic uncertainty and increasingly seen as an unreliable trade partner. So what can countries do? They adapt. If they can’t trade through Washington, they’ll try trading around it.
On Ian Explains, Ian Bremmer breaks down the new global trade map as allies negotiate their own alliances in ways that make them less vulnerable to US chaos. The biggest power play is coming from the EU, which is pitching itself as a steadfast trade partner—reinforcing ties with the UK, Latin America, and Asia, and even floating the idea of an EU-led alternative to the WTO. The US economy is still the largest in the world, it won’t be excluded from global trade entirely. But global supply chains are sticky, and new trade relationships could long outlast Trump’s presidency. As America walks away from 80 years of economic leadership, does it risk being left behind?
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔). GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
U.S. President Donald Trump shakes hands with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, after an announcement of a trade deal between the U.S. and EU, in Turnberry, Scotland, Britain, July 27, 2025.
US and EU strike trade deal
It’s down the wire for countries trying to reach a trade deal with the US before Aug. 1, when President Donald Trump has threatened steep “reciprocal” tariffs. But on Sunday, the United States and the European Union reached a sweeping – and preliminary – agreement that sets new rules for the world’s largest bilateral trade relationship, avoiding a transatlantic trade war that many feared could rattle the global economy.
Trump announced the deal on Sunday after meeting with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at his Turnberry golf resort in Scotland, just days before 30% tariffs were set to take effect. “It’s the biggest of all the deals,” Trump said. Von der Leyen called the pact, which affects the world’s largest bilateral trade relationship, a win for “stability” and “predictability.”
Who agreed to what? The US will impose a 15% tariff on most imports from the EU — including automobiles, a major trading category. The rates had hovered in single digits before Trump took office. The 15% rate also applies to pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, which had not previously been subject to tariffs. European steel and aluminum will still be subject to a 50% tariff rate.
In return, the EU has agreed to purchase $750 billion in US energy exports, invest $600 billion in the American economy, and not place tariffs on the US. Brussels had prepared to retaliate with levies on up to $116.2 billion in American products if talks had collapsed.
Not everyone is happy. The euro fell against the dollar on Monday morning, reflecting, in part, concerns that the deal could hurt Europe’s export sector. French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou said that the bloc “resigned itself into submission” to the US, complaints echoed by far-right leaders in France and Germany. Critics also pointed out that the UK got a better deal from Trump, going home with just a 10% tariff.
But it is good news for transatlantic ties. The deal follows months of tense back-and-forth, and according to Eurasia Group’s Europe expert Mujtaba Rahman, “should contribute to a broader stabilization of the transatlantic relationship, certainly compared to where things sat earlier in the year.” In May, Trump threatened to impose 50% tariffs on nearly all EU goods, later reducing that to 30%.
“The EU and US have now struck deals on NATO and trade; the only real issue that remains outstanding is the question of Ukraine,” says Rahman.
What’s next: The final 15% figure mirrors a pact the US recently reached with Japan — and may now become Washington’s new baseline for deals with other trading partners like South Korea, Taiwan, and Switzerland, where the White House will now shift their focus before the Friday deadline.U.S. President Donald Trump speaks next to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell during a tour of the Federal Reserve Board building, which is currently undergoing renovations, in Washington, D.C., U.S., July 24, 2025.
Why is Trump threatening the Fed, and why does it matter?
On Thursday afternoon, just before golden hour, President Donald Trump threw a white hardhat over his flaxen coif and strode into the Federal Reserve building on Constitution Avenue.
The stated purpose of his visit to the world’s most influential central bank was almost comically mundane: he was there to inspect a building renovation project for cost overruns. Trump is, as he likes to remind people, a “builder,” so he knows an overpriced crown molding when he sees one. He says the $2.5-billion project, funded by Congress, is already more than $500 million over budget. The Fed disputes this number.
Sure enough, after a walking tour of the sites with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, the two men sparred about the costs of the buildings that are currently being rebuilt by the Fed – and at least one that is not being built because, as Powell gamely pointed out, it was already built five years ago.
But the hardhat haggling was pantomime for a more serious dispute.
For weeks now, Trump has been insulting and pressuring the “numbskull” Powell to lower interest rates, in hopes that doing so will give the US economy, “the hottest in the world,” a boost. The midterms are, after all, approaching.
But Powell isn’t budging. He argues that with Trump’s tariff threats still nudging up prices, lower rates could set inflation soaring all over again. The Fed’s legally-mandated job is to keep inflation low and growth humming – without presidential meddling.
More alarmingly, Trump has recently pondered removing Powell – whom he nominated as Fed chair eight years ago – before his term ends next spring. Doing so would be an unprecedented assault on the Fed’s independence. Under the law, a president can sack a Fed chair only for serious violations of the law or ethics.
Disagreements over interest rate policy are not that. But an allegedly botched building renovation that has cost taxpayers hundreds of millions of dollars in cost overruns? Maybe it’s malfeasance enough. And while Trump said yesterday that firing Powell because of cost overruns would be a “a big move” that is “not necessary” right now, the visit sends a clear message: this is an issue that can be brought up again if Powell doesn’t, as Trump insists, “do the right thing.”
So what is “Fed independence”? And why is it a problem if it suffers?
To learn more I rang up one of the smartest global economy analysts out there – Rob Kahn, Managing Director of Global Macro at Eurasia Group. Our exchange has been edited for clarity and concision. Here goes.
Rob, why is central bank independence so important, and to whom?
When a central bank is subservient to the government, it will often make decisions to keep interest rates too low. And as a result you get too much money printed up and then more inflation.
There is a vast body of evidence that says that economies that have independent central banks do better. They tend to have lower inflation and higher growth. When everyone – financial markets, firms, households – can make longer-term investment and spending decisions based on stable accurate expectations about what the future will hold, they make better decisions and they have better outcomes.
Economies just perform better when individuals have reasonably stable expectations about what inflation's going to be this year, next year, five years from now.
If Trump forces Powell to cut rates, or replaces him with someone who does that, what might happen?
The first thing to remind people of is that the Fed doesn’t actually control all the interest rates in the economy. They control the so-called “federal funds rate,” which is the rate at which banks lend to each other. By doing that, they can influence all the other interest rates in the economy, but they don’t control them directly.
If the Fed were perceived to be cutting rates under pressure from Donald Trump, you might see that even though the Fed funds rate went down, other lenders would say, “Wow, in the longer term we’re going to have higher inflation, so we’re going to actually need higher interest rates ahead of that.” So even though the Fed rate goes down, the market rates for a lot of people could actually go up.
Why is Trump’s hardhat visit so alarming for people worried about Fed independence?
Well, if they can fire the Fed chair for overspending on a building project, then you know that any time a president has a disagreement with the Fed chair in the future, he can just come up with something and say, “oh, this is the real cause,” and fire him for that.
And that will effectively undermine the Fed’s independence. So Trump in a hard hat is really not about a renovation. This is really about whether the Fed can be independent in setting monetary policy. Don’t be fooled.
Where middle class growth and small business meet
Listen: Small businesses are more than just corner shops and local services. They’re a driving force of economic growth, making up 90% of all businesses globally. As the global middle class rapidly expands, new opportunities are emerging for entrepreneurs to launch and grow small businesses.
In the first episode of “Local to global: The power of small business”, host JJ Ramberg sits down with Shamina Singh, Founder and President of the Mastercard Center for Inclusive Growth, and Homi Kharas, Senior Fellow at Brookings Institution and Co-Founder of the World Data Lab. Together, they explore how the spending power of the global middle class is fueling small business growth from Taipei to Toronto and beyond.
The discussion also highlights how digital inclusion, access to finance, and cybersecurity are essential for small business success.
“Local to global: The power of small business” is a new podcast series from GZERO Media's Blue Circle Studios and Mastercard, where we'll look behind the curtain to explore the world of small businesses and why they’re positioned to play an even bigger role in the future of the global economy.
AI adoption starts in the C-suite
As artificial intelligence becomes a foundational force in global business, many companies are rushing to adopt it—but not all are ready. According to Caitlin Dean, Director and Deputy Head of Corporates at Eurasia Group, success with AI isn’t just about access to the latest tools. It depends on leadership that actually understands what those tools can do.
In this Global Stage conversation from the 2025 STI Forum at the United Nations, Dean explains that while some large tech firms are integrating AI at the core of their business models, most companies are still in the early stages—using turnkey solutions to boost productivity without a clear long-term strategy. That gap, she warns, is a leadership problem.
Dean argues that organizations need more than just engineers. They need business leaders who are AI-literate—strategists who understand the technology deeply enough to apply it in meaningful, forward-looking ways. Without that, companies risk falling behind, not just in innovation, but in relevance.
This conversation is presented by GZERO in partnership with Microsoft, from the 2025 STI Forum at the United Nations in New York. The Global Stage series convenes global leaders for critical conversations on the geopolitical and technological trends shaping our world.
See more at https://www.gzeromedia.com/global-stage/un-sti-forum/ai-trends-in-2025-that-drive-progress-on-global-goals