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REUTERS/Mohamed Abd El Ghany.

Have the US and Canada managed a soft landing?

Speaking of things looking up. An economic outlook report from Deloitte Canada suggests the country will avoid a recession and begin to recover in the second half of 2024 – assuming the US economy keeps humming along, the Bank of Canada starts cutting interest rates soon, and newcomers keep arriving.
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Rwandan President Paul Kagame attends the lighting ceremony of the Rwandan genocide flame of hope, known as the "Kwibuka" (Remembering), to commemorate the 1994 Genocide at the Kigali Genocide Memorial Center in Kigali, Rwanda April 7, 2023

REUTERS/Jean Bizimana

Hard Numbers: Rwanda’s Kagame will run again, the EU takes on Uber, water contamination threat in Libya, US Fed keeps cool

4: Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame, who has been in power since 2000, announced that he’ll run for a fourth term in next year’s election.

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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell looks on at the Jackson Lake Lodge in Jackson Hole

Reuters

What’s the Fed’s next move?

Tomorrow morning, the man with the power to move markets will be center stage. It’s that time again – for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to address the Fed’s annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyo. Last year, his words warned of looming interest rate hikes, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 1,000 points. So is it time to buckle up?
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Trader Warren Meyers watches the Fed Rate announcement on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange

REUTERS

Breather for the Fed?

For background, the Fed has been bumping up rates since March 2022, when pandemic-related stimulus and supply chain kinks were driving annual price growth towards 9%, a 40-year high.

But these days things are looking rosier. The latest data show annual price growth in May was just 4%, almost a full point below April’s clip. It’s the 11th consecutive month that inflation has fallen.

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Fed chair Jerome Powell leaves after a news conference in Washington, DC.

REUTERS/Evelyn Hockstein

The Fed's last rate hike of 2023?

On Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve will announce whether it'll further raise interest rates to tamp down inflation, which has eased in recent months yet remained at 5% in March, well above the 2% level that economists like. It's likely that the Fed will go for another 0.25 percentage point hike — taking interest rates to between 5% and 5.25%, the highest level in 16 years.

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Larry Summers explains the banking crisis
Larry Summers explains the banking crisis | GZERO World

Larry Summers explains the banking crisis

On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer and former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers discuss a range of topics, including the global banking system, the impact of AI on the labor market, and a controversial solution for rebuilding Ukraine.

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A Canadian soldier holds a flag as they wait for the arrival of PM Justin Trudeau along with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg in Adazi, Latvia.

REUTERS/Ints Kalnins

What We’re Watching: NATO (still) wants Canada to pay up, critical mineral gold rush, a tale of two banks

Canada is a NATO laggard – but it’s far from alone

The aging defense league is finding a new raison d’etre battling Russian aggression in Ukraine. But Canada still falls short of the 2% GDP military spending goal that NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg recently said is set “not as a ceiling but a floor, a minimum, that we should all meet.”

A recent NATO report estimates that Canada’s share of defense spending declined against its GDP to 1.27% in 2022, down from 1.32% in 2021 and well shy of the 2% target. Several members spend less than the target, but Canada falls toward the mid-to-bottom of that list.

In 2022, the US topped the list at 3.47% of GDP. The US routinely nudges Canada to spend more on defense. Last month, its ambassador to Canada said he was “hopeful” the country would hit the NATO target.

Canada has no plan to reach the 2% target, and its latest budget is still light on defense spending. But the government does tout that it has the sixth-largest NATO defense budget and is a top contributor to the alliance’s common fund. Canada also spent billions on new fighter jets and is making investments in northern and continental defense. NATO doesn’t penalize states that don’t hit the 2% target – and it’s hard to imagine Canada getting thrown out of the club, so all it can do is name and shame in the hope that Canada starts to pull its weight.

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The next economic crisis Larry Summers is worried about
The next economic crisis | Larry Summers | GZERO World

The next economic crisis Larry Summers is worried about

On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer and former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers discuss the policy response to the recent banking crisis involving Silicon Valley Bank and the Biden administration's actions.

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