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United States North? Surely, you’re joking
Donald Trump was just joking when he told Prime Minister Justin Trudeau that if Canada’s economy can’t function in the face of US tariffs, it should just become the 51st state. At least that’s what Canadian politicians on the government side are rushing to clarify.
Trump made the comment over dinner with Trudeau at Mar-a-Lago after the Canadian PM went stateside in the hopes of establishing a smooth – or smoother – working relationship with the incoming president.
Canada is desperate to avoid the 25% across-the-board tariffs Trump has promised to introduce. The tariffs would hit Canada – and the US – hard, particularly if Trudeau decides to retaliate, which he almost surely will. Cross-border trade between the two countries is worth roughly $1 trillion a year.
On LinkedIn, former Trudeau principal secretary and current Eurasia Group Vice Chairman Gerald Butts noted that this wasn’t the first time Trump had made the 51st state joke.
“Trump used this ‘51st State’ line with Trudeau a lot during his first term. He’s doing it to rattle Canadian cages,” Butts posted before offering a bit of advice.
“When someone is trying to get you to freak out, don’t. #protip”
Good advice.
Canada sues Google over ad tech – and it’s not alone
Canada wants Google to split two of its ad tech tools and pay an administrative penalty “equal to three times the value of the benefit derived from Google’s anti-competitive practices, or if that amount cannot be reasonably determined, 3% of Google’s worldwide gross revenues.” So, potentially a decent chunk of cash.
Google is facing suits all over the place right now as countries struggle to reign in the company.
In 2021, the US launched a suit against Google alleging it was subverting competition in the online ad space. That suit, similar to the Canadian case, is ongoing. The US is also looking to break up Google, demanding it sell off its Chrome browser after a judge ruled in a separate case that the company has a monopoly on internet searches.
The European Union is also fighting Google over its ad practices, leaving the company encircled, but nowhere near defeated as cases, appeals, and deal-making will drag on for months or years.Hard Numbers: US mail to Canada stops, Border apprehensions fall, Foreign students face Canadian exits, Climbing team missing
55,000: Santa’s sleigh may struggle to go north this year. A strike by some 55,000 Canada Post employees has led the US Postal Service to alert customers that it will not be able to deliver to Canadian addresses for the foreseeable future. Just ahead of the holiday season, the service stoppage is likely to cause headaches to cross-border families trying to exchange gifts.
700: The US border patrol said its agents on the Canadian border had apprehended about 700 migrants crossing illegally into the US in November, down from 1,300 in October. Crossings are down on the southern border too, with 47,000 apprehensions in November, the lowest figure since July 2020.
766,000: Some 766,000 foreigners in Canada hold student permits that are set to expire by the end of 2025. While some permits will be renewed, many of the foreign students will likely have to leave Canada amid the country’s rising economic and housing concerns. The most affected country? India, whose young people make up the majority of foreign pupils in the Great White North.
3: Three climbers, two Americans and one Canadian, went missing on Monday while attempting to scale New Zealand’s highest peak, Mount Cook (also known as Aoraki). Bad weather has stymied search efforts, and New Zealand authorities say they have “grave concerns.”Liberals face two showdowns to Trump-proof Canada
As if Justin Trudeau isn’t dealing with enough. His Liberal Party is down in the polls and struggling amid a House of Commons shutdown led by the Conservatives. Now it has to manage an incoming Trump administration intent on extracting as much as it can from Canada.
After nearly 10 years in power, the Liberals are politically weak, and they’re staring down another potential parliamentary showdown over what to do about Donald Trump. Last time, it was overTrump’s 2018 tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum imports. This time, it’s likely to be about the president-elect's latest tariff threat and border security politics.
What the tariff man wants vs. Canada’s choices
Trumprecentlyannounced an intended tariff policy that made Canadian leaders blanch: 25% across the board — levies that would cripple Canada’s economy. The tariff hike wasn’t a surprise, considering Trump campaigned on it, but the 25% rate was a shock, and the inclusion of Canada disabused optimistic Canadians of any hope that a long, close trade and security relationship between the countries would mean preferential treatment.
The president-elect has said Canada would pay the high tariffs “until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country!” So Trump has laid out his ground rules, but responding to his demands will be tough.
For one thing, the US Drug Enforcement Agency says that while Canada’s border was a fentanyl threat a decade ago, it’s no longer a core part of the drug-poisoning crisis. Mexico poses a bigger threat — almost 500 times more fentanyl was seized by US Border Patrol coming from Mexico than Canada in 2023.
Still, border crossings are up. Encounters between irregular migrants and authorities along the US-Canadian border in 2023 account for just a fraction of the 1.5 million along the US-Mexico border, but the Canadian numbers are higher than ever. Along the northern land border — the world’s longest at 5,525 miles — border patrol reported 189,000 encounters last year, a 73% uptick from the year before — and nearly 600% higher than in 2021.
The Liberal government has promised to be “very visible” on border policy in response to Trump, adding more staff and equipment, including additional helicopters and drones to monitor the frontier. It is also pledging additional resources for the Royal Canadian Mounted Police aimed at curbing human smuggling across the border. They’ve also launched an online ad campaign — in 11 languages — to dissuade refugees from making asylum claims in Canada.
The Mounties, in turn, plan to send more police to the border if necessary, largely in response to Trump’s plan for mass deportations, which it expects will lead to a surge in illegal crossings. The exact number of pledged Mounties is unclear, though the increase could involve sending cadets to the border. The Canada Border Services Agency says it would need up to 3,000 more officers to manage its share of increased border activity.
Border security poses domestic challenges for Trudeau
Any new Canadian border security plan will cost money the government must come up with as part of its budget in early spring. Since the Liberals rely on support in a minority parliament, they require support from opposition parties to pass legislation.
At least one province isn’t waiting around for Trudeau. Alberta is working on its own border plan, which may include a special sheriff unit to patrol the crossing between it and Montana. But the bulk of any plan will come from Ottawa.
While he can’t implement policy, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre — whose side leads the Liberals by 20 points in the polls — can cajole and pile more political pressure on Trudeau. Poilievre’s podium sign during a recent speech read: “Fix the broken border,” and he’s calling for a plan to be presented to Parliament by the Liberals that includes more border patrols, stricter visa rules, a cap on how many asylum-seekers the country accepts, and more.
Trudeau met with opposition leaders on Tuesday to discuss border security and the tariff threat, but Poilievre has political reasons to keep calling it “Trudeau's broken border.” After all, the Conservatives, if their polling holds, are set to replace the Liberals, and the country is due to vote by October 2025.
To pass legislation in the meantime — including the crucial budget Trudeau needs to tighten border controls and keep Trump’s tariffs at bay — the Liberals must win the support of another party in the House of Commons, most likely the NDP, if anyone.
In theory, Poilievre might back a robust Liberal border plan, which Conservatives would claim as their own. But it may be more likely that they’ll reject whatever the Liberals come up with as insufficient and wait to present their own plan if they form a government after the next election.
The Conservatives won’t hand Trudeau a win, says Graeme Thompson, a senior analyst with Eurasia Group’s global macro-geopolitics practice, and will likely respond to the Liberals’ border plan with: “Great, but it’s too late and not enough.” So they’d “vote against it for being too spendthrift and for not doing enough on security and defense.”
That would leave Trudeau with two choices for a partner: the Bloc Quebecois, who are also set on defeating the Liberal government, or the New Democratic Party, who are taking things one day — and one vote — at a time. So far, on the border, the NDP is calling on the government to hire 1,100 new border agents and to expand the agency’s powers.
Thompson says the left-wing Bloc and NDP “might not be the most excited about okaying massive expenditures on border security.”
For the NDP to vote against the Liberals, they’d likely have “to find the budget insufficiently generous when it comes to economic and social supports for Canadians,” Thompson says. But if they simply say the Liberals have gone too far on border and defense spending? “Then suddenly you’re in a situation where the Liberals have lost both flanks, and that could be a trigger for an election,” he adds.
Such a border security showdown could lead to an early election, says Thompson, as the Liberals try to navigate competing demands from Trump and opposition parties at home.
Could a new government fare better?
Should the Conservatives replace the Liberals in 2025, the changing of the guard may give Canada a stronger negotiating position vis-à-vis Trump. Poilievre’s Conservatives, for example, could scrap Liberal policies such as the Online Streaming Act and the digital services tax that irk the US, giving them leverage in negotiations with Trump.
Meanwhile, Trudeau’s ability to navigate tense US-Canada relations could determine his political fate and Canada’s economic future.
Political K-drama, Lebanon ceasefire, Trudeau at Mar-a-Lago, and more: Your questions, answered
It’s beginning to look a lot like the holiday season here in New York — so in the Christmas spirit, I decided to answer your most pressing questions in a December edition of my mailbag series. Want to know what I think about Trump’s latest picks for his new administration? What’s next for the Middle East? Gladiator II vs. Wicked? Ask, and you shall receive.
Hoping to crack a few echo chambers at once, I put out a call for questions onX,Threads, andBluesky, and — as usual — you all delivered an avalanche of insightful and thought-provoking queries. I sorted through hundreds of questions, spanning everything from “Is America in decline?” to “What is Moose’s favorite toy?” to “What is the meaning of life?” I’ll leave the philosophizing to Plato but am excited to tackle the questions more political in nature — with a few personal ones thrown in for amusement.
So grab some hot cocoa as I dive into your first round of questions (some of which have been edited for clarity).
What the heck happened in South Korea?
On Tuesday, President Yoon Suk Yeol shocked the world by (briefly and unlawfully) declaring emergency martial law before reversing course some six hours later. Martial law means all activities by parliament and political parties become prohibited, the media gets placed under state control, and protests and demonstrations are banned. Yoon claimed the move was meant “to eradicate” a fifth column of North Korea-aligned opposition elements, despite there being no evidence of such a threat. The truth: Yoon had become deeply unpopular after being swept up in several corruption scandals (with one notably including his wife). When the opposition refused to pass his budget, he snapped. Today, Yoon awoke to a political hangover, realizing that his decision destroyed any remaining legacy he might have had. He'll be impeached in short order (with a motion already submitted), and new elections will likely favor the opposition. South Korea will remain a democracy thanks to its institutions holding strong against the immediate threat of illiberalism (unlike some other countries I know). I predict the country will be able to move past this blip swiftly, and I doubt the rest of the world will be talking much about it in the coming weeks.
Do you expect the recent ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah to last?
Despite reports of some fire from both sides, which is to be expected, I think there’s a good chance that the truce will hold. About 60,000 Israelis evacuated the northern part of the country near the Lebanon border after Hamas attacked on Oct. 7, 2023. So a positive sign to look for would be if the displaced Israelis start heading back home. Israeli forces have pummeled Hezbollah, decimating their capacity to expand the war. Plus, Israel wants to give Donald Trump a win, and the two-month ceasefire will become "permanent" just as he is inaugurated. Coincidence? I think not.
How do you feel about Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau flying down to Mar-a-Lago in response to Trump's tariff threats? A weak move? A smart play? Somewhere in-between?
The Canadians are stuck between a rock and a hard place. America’s northern neighbors rely heavily on economic and political cooperation with the United States, so this was Justin Trudeau’s only move. Provincial governors across the political spectrum are demanding cooperation with the Trump administration as a matter of utmost urgency. The primary issue for Trudeau: He won’t be in power for long and, accordingly, has very limited leverage.
Has the United States become a rogue nation?
I’d define a rogue state as one that actively wants to break the norms and rules of the international order — diplomatic, economic, and military. By that definition, while the United States has taken rogue actions (the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the treatment of prisoners in Guantanamo and Abu Ghraib, etc. etc.), on most issues, the US doesn’t belong in that bucket. However, the US is now far less committed to strengthening or even leading multilateral institutions. It has become more transactional, less oriented toward common values, and more interested in bilateral negotiations with a clearer power advantage than multilateralism. In that way, US foreign policy is becoming less “exceptionalist” and more akin to China’s — though with a stronger focus on national security leverage than China’s more principally commercial perspective.
When you visited Mexico a bit more than a year ago, you concluded that the country was doing better than expected and shared a fairly optimistic outlook for the country’s future. Do you still hold that view?
I feel less optimistic than a year ago, for sure. The Mexican economy should be doing far better, given its level of integration with the United States (the strongest economy in the world) and its favorable positioning vis-a-vis derisking/decoupling from China. However, some market-unfriendly decisions during Claudia Sheinbaum’s presidential transition, particularly but not limited to judicial reform, have hurt Mexico’s investment climate. Plus, concerns that the bilateral relationship with the US will come under pressure from the incoming Trump administration adds to the looming economic uncertainty. Still, Sheinbaum’s orientation is much more technocratic — and her Cabinet overall is more professional — than her predecessor, and that will help.
Can you please make sense of what's now happening in Syria/Aleppo? Will the Assad regime collapse?
Basically, a Turkey-backed militant Islamist group called HTS managed to snag Aleppo, Syria’s second-biggest city, in a matter of days, catching everyone off guard. It’s a huge deal, basically flipping the script on who controls what in Syria. But why now, after the Syrian civil war had been frozen for years? Two words: G-Zero, baby. Assad’s regime is extremely dependent on Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah for its survival. But Israel recently wiped out Hezbollah in Lebanon and weakened Iran’s proxy network, leaving Assad seriously vulnerable. Plus, Russia is racing to grab as much ground as possible before a potential Trump-forced ceasefire in Ukraine. With Assad’s main backers distracted and resource-strained, it was the perfect opportunity for the rebels to make a move. But here’s the kicker: Assad isn’t going down. Iran and Russia are too invested in keeping him in power, so they'll absolutely jump in to save his bacon. Even countries that are happy to see Assad and Iran weakened, like Israel and Turkey, don’t want to deal with the chaos that his overthrow would leave behind. So, while this is a massive shake-up, don’t bet on Assad getting the boot just yet – he’s survived crazier situations, and he’s got some powerful friends helping him hang on.
How are things looking for Russia given the ruble, Syria, and Iran?
In terms of those specific perspectives, things might not be looking too good for Russia. Low oil prices, new sanctions, and government spending on the war effort propelled the Russian ruble to its lowest levels in over two years. Rebel advancement in Aleppo makes both Russia and Iran look weak and distracted. Plus, there’s been anastronomical number of Russian casualties in Ukraine as Putin’s invasion has dragged on.
But that’s not to say that things are looking bad for Russia in the long term. Russian forces have been gaining more and more territory in the Donbas; President-elect Trump aims to end the war as soon as possible; Volodymyr Zelensky is under an immense amount of domestic pressure to stop the bleeding; and the Europeans are increasingly split on continuing economic and military support for Kyiv. With no direct internal threat to Putin’s position, the Russian president is still sitting comfortably in Moscow … with large bits of Ukraine essentially his.
What got you interested or started in politics to begin with?
My first trip outside the United States really kicked off my interest in politics. Picture it: Soviet Union in 1986, the Cold War in full swing. It was such a transformative experience for a kid from the projects. My perception of Moscow, Leningrad, and the former Soviet republics was so different than what the news was telling me, which was fascinating and made me want to explore other parts of the world. I wanted to go everywhere, study hard, and learn as much as possible to understand the world better. I thought of that kid when I made my trip to Antarctica last year, completing my journey to all seven continents.
Who is the most well-known person on your cellphone contact list?
Besides Beyoncé? Just kidding — I don't know many Hollywood types, but I suspect the few I do are the most broadly well-known, not all the political leaders. So I would probably say it’s Ashton Kutcher, who is extremely interested in international relations, especially in China. Bet you didn’t expect that answer.
How will Trump 2.0 impact AI?
In this episode of GZERO AI, Taylor Owen, host of the Machines Like Us podcast, reflects on the five broad worries of the implication of the US election on artificial intelligence.
I spent the past week in the UK and Europe talking to a ton of people in the tech and democracy community. And of course, everybody just wanted to talk about the implications of the US election. It's safe to say that there's some pretty grave concerns, so I thought I could spend a few minutes, a few more than I usually do in these videos outlining the nature and type of these concerns, particularly amongst those who are concerned about the conflation of power between national governments and tech companies. In short, I heard five broad worries.
First, that we're going to see an unprecedented confluence of tech power and political power. In short, the influence of US tech money is going to be turbocharged. This, of course, always existed, but the two are now far more fully joined. This means that the interests of a small number of companies will be one in the same as the interests of the US government. Musk's interests, Tesla, Starlink, Neuralink are sure to be front and center. But also companies like Peter Thiel's Palantir and Palmer Luckey's Anduril are likely to get massive new defense contracts. And the crypto investments of some of Silicon Valley's biggest VCs are sure to be boosted and supported.
The flip side of this concentrated power to some of Silicon Valley's more libertarian conservatives is that tech companies on the wrong side of this realignment might find trouble. Musk adding Microsoft to his OpenAI lawsuit is an early tell of this. It'll be interesting to see where Zuckerberg and Bezos land given Trump's animosity to both.
Second, for democratic countries outside of the US, we're going to see a severe erosion of digital governance sovereignty. Simply put, it's going to become tremendously hard for countries to govern digital technologies including online platforms, AI, biotech, and crypto in ways that aren't aligned with US interests. The main lever that the Trump administration has to pull in this regard are bilateral trade agreements. These are going to be the big international sticks that are likely to overwhelm tech policy enforcement and new tech policy itself.
In Canada, for example, our News Media Bargaining Code, our Online Streaming Act and our Digital Services Tax are all already under fire by US trade disputes. When the USMCA is likely reopened, expect for these all to be on the table, and for the Canadian government, whoever is in power to fold, putting our reliance on US trade policy over our digital policy agenda. The broader spillover effect of this trade pressure is that countries are unlikely to develop new digital policies over the time of the Trump term. And for those policies that aren't repealed, enforcement of existing laws are likely to be slowed down or halted entirely. Europe, for example, is very unlikely to enforce Digital Services Act provisions against X.
Third, we're likely to see the silencing of US researchers and civil society groups working in the tech and democracy space. This will be done ironically in the name of free speech. Early attacks from Jim Jordan against disinformation researchers at US universities are only going to be ramped up. Marc Andreessen and Musk have both called for researchers working on election interference and misinformation to be prosecuted. And Trump has called for the suspension of nonprofit status to universities that have housed this work.
Faced with this kind of existential threat, universities are very likely to abandon these scholars and their labs entirely. Civil society groups working on these same issues are going to be targeted and many are sure to close under this pressure. It's simply tragic that efforts to better understand how information flows through our digital media ecosystem will be rendered impossible right at the time when they're needed the most. At a time when the health and the integrity of our ecosystem is under attack. All in the name of protecting free speech. this is Kafka-esque to say the least.
Fourth, and in part as a result of all of the above, internationally, we may see new political space opened up for conversations about national communications infrastructure. For decades, the driving force in the media policy debate has been one of globalization and the adoption of largely US-based platforms. This argument has provided real headwind to those who, like in previous generations, urged for the development of national capacities and have protectionist media policy. But I wonder how long the status quo is tenable in a world where the richest person in the world owns a major social media platform and dominates global low-orbit broadband.
Does a country like Canada, for example, want to hand our media infrastructure over to a single individual? One who has shown careless disregard for the one media platform he already controls and shapes? Will other countries follow America's lead if Trump sells US broadcast licenses and targets American journalism? Will killing Section 230 as Trump has said to want to do, and the limits that that will place on platforms moderating even the worst online abuse, further hasten the enforcement of national digital borders?
Fifth and finally, how things play out for AI is actually a bit of a mystery, but I'm sure will likely err on the side of unregulated markets. While Musk may have at once been a champion of AI regulation and had legitimate concerns about unchecked AGI, he now seems more concerned about the political bias of AI than about any sort of existential risk. As the head of a new government agency mandated to cut a third of the federal government budget, Musk is more likely to see AI as a cheap replacement for human labor than as a threat that needs a new agency to regulate.
In all of this, one thing is for certain, we really are in for a bumpy ride. For those that have been concerned about the relationship between political and tech power for well over a decade, our work has only just begun. I'm Taylor Owen and thanks for watching.
Hard Numbers: Trump talks tough tariffs, Opposition wins in Uruguay, DHL plane crashes in Lithuania, Israeli drone targeted journalists, Ireland asylum claims spike
25: President-elect Donald Trump took aim at Canada and Mexico via Truth Social on Monday, posting about his plan to charge the countries — currently America’s No. 1 & No. 2 trading partners, — a whopping 25% tariff on all products entering the US. The tariff would be enacted on Jan. 20, 2025, Trump said, and would “remain in effect until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country!” He then posted that he would charge China, where the precursor chemicals to fentanyl are made, “an additional 10% tariff, above any additional Tariffs, on all of their many products coming into the United States of America.”
49: Uruguay’s left-wing opposition leader Yamandú Orsiwon the small South American country’s presidential election with 49% of the vote in a neck-and-neck runoff contest on Sunday. It was yet another rebuke of an incumbent party — the theme of many global elections this year — but not to worry: Uruguay is remarkably stable, and Orsi is a moderate with no radical plans.
1: One crew member died on Monday when a DHL cargo flight crashed during its attempted landing in Vilnius, Lithuania, with surveillance video showing a huge ball of flames as the plane went down. Lithuanian officials said they could not rule out whether Russia played a role in the crash, following months of suspicions over Moscow’s possible role in other cases of sabotage against the German shipping giant. Germany, meanwhile, is sending investigators to Vilnius to aid with the probe.
3: Human Rights Watch has determined that an Israeli drone strike that killed three journalists in Lebanon last month was most likely a deliberate attack on civilians, which is a war crime. More than 3,500 people in Lebanon have died amid Israel’s invasion, and more than 1 million have been displaced from their homes in the 5.3-million-strong country.
300: Asylum applications in Ireland have spiked 300% so far this year – with a fourfold increase from Nigeria – compared to last. The rise has been driven by tougher immigration stances in the UK, including a quixotic plan to house asylum-seekers in Rwanda. The uptick is becoming a political issue in Ireland, with voters increasingly concerned by the impact of increased migration on scarce housing.US ambassador incoming
Donald Trump on Wednesday tapped former Michigan congressman and Netherlands ambassadorPete Hoekstra to be US ambassador to Canada.
In a statement on the pick, Trump noted his campaign won Michigan “sizably” and gave a nod to Hoekstra’s contributions. He touched on free trade, stating that his administration “overhauled the disastrous NAFTA agreement” and created a “level playing field” in trade with Canada and Mexico – a potentially positive sign that Trump thinks the replacement USMCA is a good deal.
The mention of free trade in Trump’s statement will catch attention in Canada, where the government is keeping a close eye on the incoming president’s promise to levy across-the-board tariffs – which Canada deeply prefers to avoid. Trump says Hoekstra will help him “once again put AMERICA FIRST,” but it’s not clear what that will mean for one his country’s largest trading partners.
Former US ambassador to Canada Bruce Heyman told GZERO that Hoekstra is an experienced ambassador who knows both Trump and Congress — and an insider who Canada will need to get the “straight scoop” and “lay of the land” in Washington.
Heyman points out that Hoekstra’s border-state origins means he understands the US-Canada relationship, which is good news given the need to navigate coming changes. Moreover, Heyman said that the early naming of an ambassador to Canada “shows the importance of the relationship” between the two countries.
In the coming months, that relationship may be put to the test and Canada will likely welcome any help or advantage it can get.