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Hard Numbers: Slave labor gets free pass, China probes fried chicken blast, Fresh beef over origins of meat, Windfarms vs. farmlands, Record numbers at US-Canada border
0: Is Canada complying with its obligation, under the revamped NAFTA accords, to stop importing goods that are made with forced labor? A Politico report earlier this week suggested Canadian border services officials were starting to detain shipments from Western China, where Beijing is accused of using slave labor among the Uighur population. But the Globe and Mail reports that zero imports have so far been rejected. Of particular concern are exports of relatively inexpensive Chinese solar panels, which have helped businesses and homes wean themselves off fossil fuels without breaking the bank.
7: Speaking of China, authorities are probing the cause of a massive explosion on Thursday at a fried chicken restaurant near Beijing that left at least 7 people dead and 27 injured. The incident comes amid a big safety crackdown on restaurants following a fatal gas explosion at a barbecue restaurant last year. Crispy fact: Fried chicken is wildly popular in China – KFC was the first US fast food chain to open in China when the country opened up in 1978.
795,000: The US imports an average of about 795,000 head of cattle from Canada every year, but there’s a fresh beef this week over new meat labeling requirements in the US. The Biden administration on Monday issued new rules that permit sellers to label their products as “made in the USA” only when the animals were born, raised, slaughtered, and packaged within the 50 states. The Canadian meat industry says the new rules will depress Canadian exports and raise prices for American meat-lovers.
1: A study in Alberta has determined that even if renewable energy sources grew rapidly, they would still take up less than 1% of the sprawling province’s land two decades from now. The findings come amid a frothy local debate about the merits of giving precious farmland to cows, crops, or wind farms. The government recently imposed a moratorium on the use of any prime land for renewables until a consensus is reached.
7,000: Border patrol in the Swanton Sector, which touches the US states of New York, Vermont, and New Hampshire, arrested some 7,000 migrants trying to cross illegally into the United States last year, more than in the past 12 years combined. With so much attention on the US southern border, migrants (and human traffickers) are setting their sights up north. To put those 7,000 in perspective, in December alone, US border agents encountered 250,000 undocumented migrants entering from Mexico.Graphic Truth: US trade deficit with Canada & Mexico
The US trade deficit in goods with Canada and Mexico reached an all-time high in 2023 of over $220 billion — and despite what you may hear from certain former US presidents, that’s a good thing. Yes, more money than ever is leaving the US and going to the neighbors. And in exchange, American consumers get more stuff from their neighbors than ever before and for better prices than they can find at home.
Biden and Trudeau face headwinds … from Gaza
Last Thursday, after Joe Biden promised during his State of the Union to build a pier to deliver aid to Gaza, Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet shook the president’s hand, congratulated him on the speech, and urged him to push Israel to do more on “humanitarian stuff.”
Biden, caught on a hot mic, nodded in agreement and said he was pressing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. “I told him, Bibi, don’t repeat this, but we are going to have a come-to-Jesus meeting.”
The next day, in the multicultural Toronto suburb of Mississauga, Justin Trudeau's International Development Minister Ahmed Hussenannounced that Canada would resume funding the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees. Israel has alleged that 12 employees were involved in the Oct. 7 attack on Israel, leading most Western countries to withdraw aid.
Unhappy progressives
Both Biden and Trudeau are responding to pressure to shift their positions on the war in Gaza, which has rattled their electoral coalitions, posing serious challenges for them as they head toward elections in November in the United States and 2025 in Canada.
The White House is aware of the problem. Biden’s aides have had to take steps to avoid pro-Palestinian protests, booking him into smaller venues and holding back event details until the last minute to keep protesters from being able to disrupt him. That is making it hard for him to get his message about student loan relief out on university campuses.
The horrible death toll in Gaza, where thousands of civilians have been killed since October, has led to despair and anger among progressives, not just among people with roots in the Middle East, but among young people and people of color.
There has been a significant generational shift in public opinion. A December New York Times poll found 46% of 18-to-19-year-olds are more sympathetic to Palestinians, compared to 27% who are sympathetic to Israel.
“I tell people all the time, 50 years ago when we had a demonstration from the White House it would be 50 people, all of whom had an Arabic accent, and today it’s tens of thousands of people, and it's a group as diverse as America that's showing up,” says James J. Zogby, founder of the Arab American Institute.
Michigan in the balance
In February’s Democratic presidential primary in Michigan, 13% of voters chose “uncommitted,” sparking similar protest movements in other states, a way for progressives to signal their unhappiness with Biden’s support for Israel in the Gaza war. But unlike the other states, Michigan, home to about 500,000 Arab Americans, is vital if Biden hopes to stay in the White House.
“Michigan had a huge impact because it is difficult to come up with a map where Democrats win the White House without Michigan in the mix, and the percentage of Arab voters in Michigan is high enough to make the difference,” says Zogby.
While the fear isn’t that these voters would flip sides for Donald Trump, the threat is real, says Clayton Allen, US director for the Eurasia Group. “Michigan is a great example where if you see the decline in Arab-American support hold through the election, that would be enough votes — if they would not show up to vote … — that would be enough to erase what had been his margin of victory in 2020.”
Nobody on Trudeau’s side
The situation in Canada is similar. Progressives are so frustrated with the Trudeau government’s position on the war that urban areas once considered safe for the Liberals may now be out of reach for the party.
Trudeau’s fence-sitting on the Gaza war has not endeared him to pro-Israel voters either.
“The Liberal Party has lost, largely, both communities, because they’ve tried to have it both ways,” says pollster Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Research.
“For electoral purposes, it’s not really great to have nobody on your side,” says one Liberal organizer.
The Liberals have been behind in the polls for so long that some would like to replace Trudeau before the election, but a leadership race while the war continues could be dominated by arguments over Gaza, potentially damaging the party.
The war is not causing similar problems for conservatives in either country, because their coalitions don’t include progressives who are angered by the bombing. They can sit back and watch as their progressive opponents struggle to keep their coalitions together.
Both Biden and Trudeau appear to be in no-win positions. They are angering their progressive bases but would anger other constituencies if they move too far the other way.
“Outside of that young progressive block, most US voters, in total, support US military backing of Israel,” says Allen. “So Biden does bear a risk if he skews too hard to the left. Everyone else can attack him for abandoning Israel. I think that's been one of the limiting factors. It's why we see Biden try to walk this tightrope.”
Both leaders would benefit from bringing the temperature down, which will only happen after the bombs stop falling on Gaza. Few outside Canada have much reason to be greatly concerned about Trudeau’s position, but the United States provides $3.8 billion in military aid to Israel every year, which gives Biden leverage over Netanyahu.
He may need to use it soon to give himself time to win back the progressives whose votes he needs to keep Trump out of the White House.
Atwood and Musk agree on Online Harms Act
Space capitalist Elon Musk and Canadian literary legend Margaret Atwood are in agreement …. on warning that Canadian legislation to bring order to cyberspace threatens freedom of speech, which suggests that Justin Trudeau may have to go back to the drawing board.
The Liberals unveiled the Online Harms Act last month, proposing a digital safety commission to target hate speech, child porn, and other dangerous content. Advocates like Facebook whistleblower Frances Haugen have called for governments to pass similar laws, and both the EU and the UK are doing so.
But the Trudeau government got a black eye from its last attempt to regulate cyberspace when Meta yanked Canadian news from its platforms rather than pay a so-called “link tax.”
So far, big American tech companies have not reacted as forcefully to this bill, but Atwood, Musk, and many experts have objected to the draconian laws around hate speech, which would include life prison sentences and the use of peace bonds for potential hate speech.
Given the precariousness of Trudeau’s government, the humiliating defeat of its last big online law, and the criticisms coming from even those predisposed to support the law, the government will likely have to accept amendments in the legislative process if it wants to get this passed.Scrambling for a plan for Haiti
American, Canadian, French, and Caribbean diplomats are in Jamaica this week trying to chart a security plan for Haiti, where a gang leader is poised to control the country’s streets, but so far Haitians can’t agree on a plan.
The Americans and Canadians brought their checkbooks, but neither were likely to send troops to establish order.
On Monday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken committed to spend $100 million more on a security force after the politics are worked out. On Tuesday, Haiti's unelected prime minister, Ariel Henry, agreed to step down, clearing the way for a new governing body.
Kenya, which is ready to send a police force to re-establish order, has said it will not do so unless there is a functioning government.
This has set the stage for wrangling over who will constitute that government, but on Wednesday, several key Haitian political figures said they would not participate, setting the stage for the violence to continue.
Last year, Joe Biden’s government asked Canada to send troops to help stabilize Haiti, but Justin Trudeau declined, citing capacity issues and the mixed results of previous interventions. Canada is instead ready to send Mounties to act as trainers, but none of that can happen until Haitians agree.Clock ticks on TikTok
The US House voted to ban Chinese-owned video-sharing app TikTok on Wednesday, sending the bill to the Senate, where it faces an uncertain fate. Democratic Senate Leader Chuck Schumer has not committed to bringing it to a vote.
Republican and Democratic representatives — who voted 352 to 65 to pass the bill — argue that China could use TikTok’s algorithm to feed propaganda to Americans and collect intelligence about users. Intelligence experts have warned for years that Westerners should be skeptical of assurances that the company does not share intelligence with the Chinese government. TikTok says such concerns are ridiculous.
The bill would force Beijing-based ByteDance to sell the company to a buyer approved by the US government or have it removed from US phones in six months.
Biden has said he would sign the bill, but Donald Trump, who tried and failed to shut down TikTok, recently reversed himself and now opposes banning the app.
Also this week, Canada's Liberals acknowledged that they had ordered a national security review of the popular app last autumn without making it public.
Canada has not said whether it would follow Washington's lead if it is banned, but last year Ottawa banned TikTok from government devices. Tech analyst Carmi Levy told CTV that Canada would likely follow an American ban. “We can’t afford to be out of sync with them on issues of digital policy that are this important.”
In the meantime, the Canadian government says TikTok will be under "enhanced scrutiny," under the Investment Canada Act's new policy on foreign investments in digital media.
Team Canada, Part Deux
Justin Trudeau’s “Team Canada” ventured south this past week to remind Americans that their trade relationship with the Great White North is vital. The new effort was announced by Trudeau in January, signaling a determination to prepare for the outcome of this year’s presidential election. His government, you’ll recall, was criticized in 2016 for being unprepared for Donald Trump’s win. But the Team Canada approach to NAFTA renegotiation was widely seen as a success since it led to the USMCA in 2020, which will be reviewed by all the parties in 2026.
The indefatigable Innovation Minister François-Philippe Champagne was accompanied on his weeklong trip by Mary Ng, minister of international trade, and Kirsten Hillman, Canada’s ambassador to the US. They traveled to Michigan, Ohio, Georgia, and Washington, DC, meeting with politicians and talking about the importance of cross-border supply chains.
Americans are listening, Champagne said, “because it’s about jobs, millions of jobs.”
Still, the prospect of a renewed trade war with the United States remains worrying for Canada, and Trudeau’s team is no doubt hoping that Biden’s poll numbers continue inching north.HARD NUMBERS: Small towns get big say in immigration, Canada faces arms export lawsuit, Red Sea attacks push up shipping costs, Hotel California suit gets checked out
18: Over the next 18 months, Canada will expand and make permanent a pilot program that gives small towns a say in where immigrants can settle. The program has already resettled close to 5,000 foreigners in rural villages and small towns struggling with labor shortages.
21 million: The Canadian government is facing a lawsuit alleging that $21 million worth of Ottawa’s arms exports to Israel are illegal. The plaintiffs – the Canadian Lawyers for International Human Rights and a Ramallah-based non-profit called Al-Haq Law – allege that arms exports to Israel since Oct. 7 violate Canadian laws that prohibit the sale of weapons that could be used in human rights violations. Ottawa says all exports since Israel launched its assault on Gaza have been “non-lethal” equipment.
1,000: The cost of shipping goods from India or the Middle East to North America is about to go up. Global shipping giant Maersk has raised prices along those routes by $1,000 per container, a hike of around 20%. Houthi attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea have forced companies like Maersk to take much longer routes around the Cape of Good Hope, which adds at least 15 days to the journey.
3: Well, three lucky guys in New York won’t be “prisoners here of their own device,” or any other device, as it happens. Authorities have dropped charges against a trio of men accused of trying to sell a stolen notepad with handwritten lyrics to the famous Eagles tune “Hotel California.” The pad was swiped from the Eagles’ archives by a biographer in the 1970s and sold to one of three accused men for $50,000 in 2005. Prosecutors said a newly released cache of emails cast doubt on the fairness of the case and asked a judge to drop it.