Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Canada’s political parties are united in offering plans to hit back against Donald Trump
Albertan Keith Gardner has been a member of the New Democratic Party his entire adult life. He’s the provincial riding association president for Lethbridge West, and he has worked on previous federal campaigns for the NDP. But in this year’s federal election, which takes place Monday, April 28, he’s voting for Mark Carney and the Liberal Party — and the reason is Donald Trump.
“There’s a kind of existential moment going on,” Gardner says. “I think the Trump piece elevates the stakes of the election.”
The election has been dominated by concerns like Gardner’s. Trump has shaped voter intentions, party strategies, and policy platforms. The two parties most likely to win, the Liberals and Conservatives, broadly agree on what needs to be done. Each supports reciprocal tariffs, reducing internal trade barriers, using government procurement to buy Canadian, and building infrastructure. They are also promising support for workers affected by Trump’s tariffs and Canadian counter-tariffs. While the parties’ methods differ — to varying degrees — the message is clear: Canada must protect its economy from its largest trading partner.
Canada looks inward — and plans to build
The Liberal Party’s platform mentions Trump eight times. Carney argues that Trump’s economic program is restructuring the global trade system, a move that threatens to hit Canada hard since the US-Canada trade relationship is worth roughly $1 trillion a year.
The Liberals are promising to reduce internal trade barriers, lowering costs by “up to 15%,” and build an internal trade corridor so goods, services, and workers can move freely and easily. To do so, they’ll undertake “nation-building projects,” including ports, airports, highways, and high-speed rail in Ontario and Quebec. They’ll also “build out” Canada’s east-west electricity grid.
Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party mention Trump six times in their platform. Their plan aims to “rebuild [Canada’s] economy and open new markets so we can reduce our reliance on the US and stand up to Trump from a position of strength.” The crux of the platform rests on fast-tracking approvals for infrastructure, including rail, roads, and power transmission lines — projects they say Canada can’t build now because of regulations.
The Conservatives are also all-in on pipelines, vowing to repeal the Trudeau-era Bill C-69, which requires impact assessment reviews for major projects. The Tories call it the “No More Development” law, claiming it “makes it impossible to build the mines, pipelines, and other major energy infrastructure Canada needs.” Carney supports the law. In contrast to the Liberals, the Conservatives are pledging to eliminate the emissions cap on oil and gas production and double oil production in Newfoundland and Labrador.
Looking outward … a bit
Foreign trade is getting less attention than internal trade, but the front-runners have some plans for boosting external commerce. The Conservatives will pursue a free trade and mobility agreement, CANZUK, with the United Kingdom, Australia, and New Zealand. They would also push to export “cleaner” Canadian resources under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, which allows countries to transfer carbon credits across borders.
While the Conservatives look to CANZUK, the Liberals are talking about new deals with MERCOSUR in South America and ASEAN in Asia. The Liberals would launch a CA$25 billion export credit facility to help foreign buyers finance Canadian goods. They would also fund efforts to make better use of existing trade, including Canada’s free trade deal with Europe and its deal with trans-Pacific states. The latter captures Australia and New Zealand but is a more limited deal than what the Conservatives are promising.
Weathering the Trump storm
After Trump leveled tariffs on Canadian goods, Canada hit back with reciprocal tariffs. The Liberals promise that “every dollar” from those duties will be used to protect workers and businesses. They’re speeding up and easing access to employment insurance – which, as the governing party, they started to do pre-election. They’re also looking to launch a CA$2 billion fund for the country’s auto sector for worker upskilling, shoring up the domestic supply chain, and protecting industry jobs from layoffs. Their plan includes an “All-in-Canada network” for making car parts, reducing the frequency with which components must cross the border.
The Conservatives will maintain “existing government supports” for the auto industry while removing sales tax on vehicles made in Canada for as long as the Trump tariffs are in effect. They’re promising a “Keep Canadians Working Fund” that uses reciprocal tariff money to support workers affected by the duties. The party says it will also “drastically” reduce the number of temporary foreign workers the country admits and ensure Canadian workers get a first crack at jobs, which could strengthen domestic wages for citizens and permanent residents.
Can the parties get it done, and will it be enough?
It’s easy to make promises during an election. It’s harder to deliver on them. Graeme Thompson, a senior analyst with Eurasia Group's global macro-geopolitics practice, says that some promises are easier to deliver on than others.
“I think internal trade is a low-hanging fruit if you can get the provinces aligned, which it seems like they are,” he says. “There is no question that non-tariff barriers within Canada are an impediment to domestic trade.”
But even if the government does deliver on that, the shadow of the US will continue to loom large.
“The problem is that in absolute terms, internal trade is minute compared to the value gained from trade with the United States,” Thompson says. “So, a hit to the Canadian economy because of tariffs could only very partially be recouped by domestic efficiencies in terms of trade.”
He says recouping losses by boosting external trade with non-US countries is easier said than done. Canada has other trade agreements, but Canadian businesses are still attracted to the US market, which is large, rich, next door, and culturally familiar.
“Until that changes, it’s going to be hard for Canada to diversify its trade by governmental efforts.” Thompson’s waiting to see if industry follows the government’s lead. “Until then, it’s just talk.”
For all that talk, whichever party wins next week will be expected to deliver. Gardner hopes that will be the Liberals, kept in check by the NDP. Looking south, he says, “One of the things I think we can do is we can have a federal government that clearly stands up, that preserves the things about Canadian society that we have achieved together, protects our notions of person and peacekeeping, protects public health care, protects all these things that frankly the NDP helped create and instill into Canadian political culture.”
It could be the Liberals who win, or it could be the Conservatives. But, either way, the message from voters during the election has been clear: They want a government that takes a firm stance against Trump’s threats.
The $Trump meme coin together with Bitcoin and crypto coins, seen in this photo illustration.
HARD NUMBERS: Trumpcoin takes flight, Canada’s deficits are here to stay, Snowbirds flee Florida, US slashes red tape for energy and mining
50: The value of $TRUMP surged by more than 50% on Wednesday after the cryptocurrency’s issuer said President Donald Trump would have dinner with the top 220 holders of the meme coin next month. The top 25 holders of $TRUMP would get a special pre-dinner reception and VIP tour of the White House.
62.3 and 31.4: No matter which of Canada’s largest parties wins the upcoming election, you can be sure of one thing: Deficits are here to stay. The Liberals’ spending plans foresee a deficit of $62.3 billion this year, falling to about $48 billion by the end of the decade. The Conservatives see a deficit of $31.4 billion this year, falling to $14 billion over the same time frame.
25: The number of people locking in mortgage rates to buy second homes in the Tampa area of Florida fell 25% in the first quarter of this year. Experts say the drop is due largely to evaporating interest from Canadian “snowbirds” put off by the Trump administration’s attacks on Canada and its tighter security restrictions on foreigners.
28: It’s about to get easier to drill, baby, drill. The US Department of the Interior has implemented an emergency measure that caps approval times for energy and mining projects on federal lands at 28 days. Permitting for projects of this kind can normally take months or even years. Solar and wind projects are, notably, excluded from the new rules.
What Canada’s main parties are running on in upcoming election
Canada’s 45th general election is less than two weeks away, and the nation faces a fraught political climate fueled by President Donald Trump’s tariffs and annexation threats towards the country. The election's outcome could have far-reaching impacts on Canada’s future and position in a fragmenting world. In an exclusive interview, GZERO’s Tasha Kheiriddin sits down with Eurasia Group‘s senior advisor John Baird and Vice Chairman Gerald Butts to unpack what’s at stake in Canada’s election, including key political players and the strategies behind their campaigns.
Butts, former principal secretary to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and a key Liberal strategist, says Carney is seeking a public mandate after taking over during Canada’s longest-running minority Parliament. Baird counters that Carney aims to ride early popularity and break from the Trudeau legacy.
Despite clear ideological divides, both Butts and Baird agree on one point: Canada needs a strong majority government. Baird warns that, “when you have such a small number of Members of Parliament, it’s like the tail wagging the dog,” expressing concern over the instability of minority rule. Butts echoes the sentiment, stating the country would be “far better served by a strong government of either political stripe.”
With Canadians heading to the polls, the world will be watching closely. The 2025 Canada election could determine not just the nation's economic path but its place on the global stage.
Watch full interview: Canadians head to the polls — and into the Trump vortex
Special interview: Canadians head to the polls — and into the Trump vortex
With just over a week until the Canadian election, GZERO’s Tasha Kheiriddin sat down with two senior advisors at Eurasia Group to get their take: Vice Chairman Gerald Butts, who is a former advisor to Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and John Baird, former Cabinet minister under Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper.
Here’s what they had to say:
Why is Canada in an election campaign? “The prime minister needed a mandate from the people, not just his party,” said Butts, referring to newly minted PM Mark Carney, who took over from Trudeau in March.
Baird was more blunt: “Carney wanted to separate himself from the NDP–Trudeau era.” Which he seems to be doing: Under his watch the Liberals have soared nearly 20 points in the polls and are currentlypredicted to form a government.
Who are the main players? Carney, the former governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, presents “a safe, fiscally responsible concept” in Butts’ view. His main rival, populist Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, brings “a fresh approach” according to Baird, who served with Poilievre in Parliament. He sees Poilievre as “best able to speak to US President Donald Trump and his administration.”
What’s really on the ballot? Themain issue is who can most effectively deal with Trump, whose tariffs and musings about making Canada the “51st state” have enraged Canadians. So far, voters givetop marks to Carney on that question. But whichever party wins, Butts and Baird agree that the next PM faces a hostile White House. “We’re starting from scratch,” warned Butts, citing the breakdown in what used to be one of the world’s closest bilateral relationships.
Minority or majority? Both men think that a minority government would be a bad outcome. “You don’t want to be checking in with a party leader with 8% in the polls before talking to the president of the United States,” said Butts, referring to Canada’s smaller parties, the NDP and Bloc Québécois. “It’s the tail wagging the dog,” added Baird.
Advice to the next PM for dealing with Trump? “Don’t get ‘Zelenskied’ — and be prepared,” they agreed. And to the victor go the spoils, even if that victor will take over at one of the most fraught moments in Canada’s history.
“The worst day in government,” Baird quipped, “is still better than the best day in opposition.”
Watch the full interview above.
Map of the US-Canada border.
The Captain Canuck effect: How a new nationalism is helping Canada
But that special relationship is now being tested by Donald Trump’s tariffs and his unprecedented threats to annex Canada by “economic force.”
As a result, nationalism is surging in Canada. And Canadians aren’t just booing the “Star Spangled Banner” at hockey matches, they’re avoiding US products, canceling travel plans, and ditching retirement homes. Even the 1970s comic-book character Captain Canuck is back!
Could this pushback, combined with Americans’ fears about the political climate at home, lead to new opportunities for Canada?
Canadians are already buying fewer American products. Instead, they are buying Canadian where possible. Sales of made-in-Canada goods were up 10% last month at Canadian grocers, and some local businesses in the country reported an overall sales jump of as much as 35%.
Meanwhile, US retailers are complaining about falling revenue from Canada, which buys about $350 billion a year in consumer products from American companies.
Canadians are canceling US travel plans. So far this year, the average number of travelers entering the US from Canada by car has dropped by nearly 15% — from 92,983 per day to 79,407 — compared to last year. In February, cross-border return car trips from Canada into the US fell 23%. In March, the Globe and Mail reported on some American tour operators reporting an 85% decline in bookings, and summer flight bookings to the US are down over 70%.
That sharp drop could hit the US tourism sector hard – Canadian visits translate to roughly $20 billion a year – and it could cost the American economy over $4 billion this year alone. According to travel lobbying groups, Canadian tourism supports 140,000 US jobs.
Even some snowbirds — the 1 million or so Canadian retirees who spend the winter in warmer locations south of the border – are looking for new perches: Rebookings have declined for next year, and some regular visitors are even selling their US homes.
But the drop in US visits is not only about patriotism. There are also growing concerns about the safety of crossing the border as the US expands its use of existing powers to search travelers’ devices and detain people on suspicion of links to illegal activity.
Jamie Liew, a law professor at the University of Ottawa and a migration expert, says the US was always allowed to screen at the border, but the practice has now broadened.
“Before, the US was doing this by targeting certain racialized communities ... What’s different is that it’s now being applied in broad strokes and to a greater number of people no matter who you are.” This, she notes, makes the risk and concern “serious.”
Brain gain for Canada? Since Trump’s return to the White House, American interest in applying for Canadian citizenship has grown, based on increased traffic to websites that provide this information.
Some Canadian provinces and institutions hope to take advantage of these trends as they seek to reverse the long-maligned north-to-south “brain drain.”
And they may have a willing audience: American researchers and public intellectuals, concerned by the political environment or the Trump administration’s cuts in research funding, are looking to leave.
In a recent poll by Nature magazine, for example, 75% of the 1,608 science researchers surveyed said they would consider leaving the US in response to Trump disrupting the science community. One recruiter noted a 63% jump in immigration inquiries from US physicians since he returned to the Oval Office.
There have already been a few notable defections. In late March, Jason Stanley, a Yale University professor and fascism scholar who has sharply criticized the Trump administration, made headlines when he announced he was leaving the US to join the University of Toronto.
Asked by NPRabout his decision, Stanley highlighted the administration’s moves to shutter DEI initiatives and to cut funding for universities over perceptions of antisemitism:
“I have Black Jewish children, and the attacks on DEI are attacks on Black people. … And they’re creating mass popular anger against Jewish people by … setting us up and saying we’re the excuse for taking down democracy. Personally, I’m not going to risk my kids’ safety for a political point.”
Meanwhile, Jen Gunter, a renowned Canadian gynecologistborn in Winnipeg, is returning to Canada after decades in the US, citing “rank misogyny” and the political climate.
Some Canadian institutions are rolling out the red carpet. The University Health Network in Toronto wants to attract at least 100 young scientists from the US. Still, there are questions about whether the Canadian government is adequately funding the sciences: Last year fewer than 1 in 5 scientists were approved for Canadian federal research funding.
Hold your horses, Americans. Canada has begun to retreat from its pro-immigration stance amid a housing crisis.
“I don’t think a mass migration is possible,” says Liew. “It’s only possible for people who might have status in Canada already, such as temporary permanent residence, citizenship, or dual citizenship, for example.”
And while Canada may stand to gain from American migrants, Liew wonders about the costs of those moves, for both countries.
“We have a lot of different expertise and diverse skills within our own borders,” she says. “Why is it that those experts can’t stay in the United States to maybe resist or provide some expertise within their own communities, to educate people about what is actually happening in their government?”
Line graphs comparing inflation to wages in the US and Canada.
Graphic Truth: Canada is winning the real wage war
But north of the border, it’s been a different story in the last few years, as Canadian wages have started to outpace inflation — helped, in part, by Ottawa’s decision to reestablish a federal minimum wage and index it to price growth. That hourly wage currently stands at $17.75. The US federal minimum wage, meanwhile, has been stuck at $7.25 per hour since 2009, though some states have set wages higher than that.
With Canada’s unemployment at 6.7%, the country’s labor market is far from perfect, but the recent real-wage growth there is bound to make some of its southern neighbors envious. These charts take a look at the recent relationship between nominal wages and inflation in both the US and Canada.
A ''Buy Canadian Instead'' sign is displayed on top of bottles, hanging above another sign that reads "American Whiskey," at a B.C. Liquor Store in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.
Canadians take aim at US businesses
Even before Trump’s tariff announcement on Wednesday, Canadian consumers were engaged in a grassroots trade war aimed at hurting American companies.
The “Buy Canadian” movement — which emerged out of Canadian anger at Donald Trump’s trade provocations and annexation threats — is hitting a growing number of American consumer firms. Canadian governments have pulled American liquor, beer, and wine from the shelves, and Canadian consumers have been scorning US products, with retailers delivering the bad news to suppliers. Half of the businesses making efforts to highlight Canadian-made goods reported last month that they had already seen a 50% increase in demand for Canadian products.
The trade tensions have also hit American tourism operators as Canadian snowbirds shift to other sunny destinations, reducing cross-border bookings by 70% this spring and summer. Canadians represent the largest group of international visitors to the United States, so a continued decline could hit US businesses hard.
Canadians made about 20.2 million visits to the U.S. in 2024. A 10% reduction could cost $2 billion and 14,000 jobs, according to a US trade group. There is no reason to think this will end anytime soon. Canadians are increasingly concerned about how they will be treated, and the Trump administration doesn’t seem to mind.
“Canadians will no longer have to worry about the inconveniences of international travel when they become American citizens as residents of our cherished 51st state,” White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly told the Wall Street Journal.
Canadians will be hoping that pressure on US businesses will eventually make the White House change its tune.
U.S. President Donald Trump delivers remarks on tariffs in the Rose Garden at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., April 2, 2025.
Trump slaps tariffs on the world
During a speech in the White House Rose Garden on Wednesday, Donald Trump announced a 10% across-the-board tariff on US imports, with higher rates for countries that have a larger trade surplus with the United States – to the tune of 20% for the EU, 54% for China, and 46% for Vietnam, to name a few of the hardest-hit. Trump also confirmed that he’s imposing 25% levies on foreign-made cars and parts.
There are some exceptions: Neither Canada nor Mexico were singled out for “reciprocal” tariffs. While they are subject to automobile and steel tariffs, products compliant with the USMCA agreement – around 38% of imports from Canada and 50% from Mexico – will not be subject to any tariffs.
How are countries responding? The 10% tariffs will take effect on April 5, followed by the extra “reciprocal” duties on April 9. This timeline gives countries a chance to retaliate, and many have vowed to do so by imposing equally high tariffs on US imports. The EU said on Thursday that it would impose countermeasures if negotiations with the White House don’t go anywhere. China echoed the Europeans’ approach, threatening countermeasures if the US doesn’t pull back. Other countries were more muted, though: India said it would be “measured” in response, while Australia won’t counter at all.
The Trump administration is betting that some may choose to negotiate, either by lowering their own tariffs or increasing investments in the US. “My advice to every country right now is, do not retaliate,” warned Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Fox News. “If you retaliate, there will be escalation. If you don’t, this is the high watermark.”
Financial markets react. S&P and NASDAQ futures declined by 3.5% and 4.5%, respectively. Meanwhile, New York copper futures are experiencing the sharpest drop, plunging as much as 4%, while crude oil fell by over 3%.
Promises made, promises kept. From the blue-collar workers scattered throughout the Rose Garden crowd to the Teamsters union shoutout, the goal of the tariffs was clear: Trump wants to reshore manufacturing to the US. He also hopes that the revenue collected from tariffs will pay for the tax cuts making their way through Congress.
Trump is making a political gamble that the short-term pain from tariffs — price inflation and possibly even a recession — will be offset by economic benefits from tax cuts, deregulation, and expanded manufacturing. He’s betting that these benefits will arrive before the 2026 midterm elections. If he’s wrong, his party is likely to pay a heavy price at the ballot box.