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U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell attends a press conference following the issuance of the Federal Open Market Committee's statement on interest rate policy in Washington, D.C., U.S., June 18, 2025
Hard Numbers: Fed holds interest rates, Canada’s population stays flat, LNG plant to open in B.C., US nabs suspects in “largest jewelry heist”
4: The US Fed on Wednesday held interest rates steady for the fourth time in a row, awaiting more data on the economic impact of Donald Trump’s tariff policies. Trump himself this week blasted Fed Chair Jerome Powell as “a stupid person, frankly” for not resuming the rate cuts that began last fall.
0%: Canada recorded a population growth of 0% in the first quarter of 2025, the lowest mark since 2020. This is the sixth consecutive quarter where population growth has slowed, and it comes after the federal government voted to reduce immigration levels late last year.
14 million: Canada is set to produce liquified natural gas (LNG) for the first time this weekend when a coastal facility in British Columbia begins operating. While the $40-billion plant will initially operate at just one quarter of its capacity, it is expected to ultimately export 14 million metric tonnes of LNG every year. It is the first North American LNG plant with direct access to the Pacific, meaning it can serve the voracious appetite for LNG in Asia.
$100 million: Seven men were arrested in California for the “largest jewelry heist” in US history, after stealing $100 million dollars worth of gold, gems, and watches from an armored truck near San Francisco in 2022.
Ontario Premier Doug Ford speaks during a meeting of northeastern U.S. Governors and Canadian Premiers, in Boston, Massachusetts, U.S., June 16, 2025.
What we’re watching: The subnational US-Canada relationship, Golden Dome’s leaden weight, MAGA Iran crackup
Premiers meet with governors to shape US-Canada relations
While the national level drama played out between Donald Trump and Mark Carney at the G7 in Kananaskis, a lot of important US-Canada work was going on with far less fanfare in Boston, where five Canadian premiers met with governors and delegations from seven US states. The groups talked trade and tariffs, reflecting a Canadian strategy of working through deep state-level relationships to help manage the broader tensions with Trump and his policies.
The double-price Carney would pay for the Golden Dome
As he left the G7 meeting in Alberta, Donald Trump said the price tag for Canada’s participation in the US Golden Dome missile defense project would come in at a hefty US$71 billion. Trump expects Canada to join.“They want to be a part of it,” he said. But Canadians themselves aren’t so keen. A recent poll found that 63% of respondents do not want Canada to join the shield, meaning Prime Minister Mark Carney, who has expressed openness to the idea, is caught between placating Trump or siding with the skeptical majority of his constituents.
MAGA-splits over US intervention in Iran
As the world waits to see if the US will join Israel in attacking Iran – and potentially pressing for regime change – the MAGA-Republican coalition is divided. Hardcore America First voices like Marjorie Taylor Greene, Steve Bannon, and Tucker Carlson say no way, while most establishment Republicans and Democrats are still in favor. A new poll finds that while nearly two-thirds of Americans would view a nuclear-armed Iran as a threat to the US, a slim majority of Republicans want nothing to do with Israel’s current efforts to destroy Iran’s nuclear program militarily. Overall, 56% of those polled said they favor negotiations to rid Iran of nuclear weapons.
Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney and U.S. President Donald Trump leave after a family photo session during the G7 Summit, in Kananaskis, Alberta, Canada, June 16, 2025.
Was the G7 a success for host Canada? Let’s take a look!
The G7 meeting this week was always going to be a tricky one. Set against the backdrop of the picturesque mountains of the Kananaskis Range, the meeting also took place amid a much uglier global tableau of trade wars between the world’s largest economies, and ongoing actual wars between Russia and Ukraine, Israel and Hamas and, on the summit’s eve, Israel’s airstrikes on Iran.
All of that was in addition to other long standing agenda items like artificial intelligence, transnational crime, and climate change. And looming over the whole gathering like Mount Galatea itself: the fact that the G7 looks ever more like a G6+1 – with Donald Trump’s US at odds with most of the others on key issues.
So now that it’s over, was it a success for host country Canada and Prime Minister Mark Carney? The report card is mixed. Here are five takeaways that tell the story:
Lapel-level diplomacy: a pin-sized win
It was the lapel pin seen ‘round the world, to paraphrase former Canadian Conservative Party leader Erin O’Toole. Okay, seen ‘round Canada, at least. Arriving at the G7, Donald Trump sported a pin featuring the Canada and US flags intertwined. Although Trump was sporting a US flag pin above that, the chattering classes in Canada chose to read the hardware as a good sign that maybe the two countries are ready to go steady again after all. These days you take the wins you can get.
Trade deal pinky promise: medium-sized win with potential to upsize to large
Maybe the pin worked a little magic. After an hour-plus bilateral talk on Monday, Mark Carney announced that he and Trump had agreed to ink a trade deal within 30 days. Washington is reportedly still pressuring Canada over its dairy tariffs and digital services taxes. The president reaffirmed that he’s “a tariff person” with “a different concept” of trade from Carney, but also noted the prime minister's “more complex idea” was nonetheless “very good.”
Trump was mostly contained: big win (accomplished the near-impossible)
Avoiding any big dustup with Trump was an important goal, and that seemed to go pretty well. Despite an opening harangue from Trump about why Russia should be back in the group – Moscow was booted over its 2014 annexation of Crimea – Carney did his best, buttering up the president at a joint presser, saying “The G7 is nothing without U.S. leadership.”
It’s true that Trump left early, but it was for a good reason – to address the Israel-Iran crisis – and with no animosity. That’s an improvement from the last time Trump left a Canadian G7 meeting, splitting from at Charlevoix, Quebec in 2018 with a tweet that then-prime minister Justin Trudeau was “Very dishonest & weak.” Carney has a very different – and much better – relationship with the US president. That by itself is a W.
Resetting relations with India: a win for some a capitulation for others
Mark Carney caught a lot of flack, including protests, for inviting Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the G7 meeting in the hopes of resetting Canada’s relationship with India. It was a bold move considering Canada’s intelligence agency warned just last Friday that India actively interferes in Canada’s political affairs and was involved in the 2023 murder of a Sikh Canadian in British Columbia. Nonetheless, the countries agreed to restore full diplomatic relations, including naming high commissioners, and talked about “opportunities to deepen engagement in areas such as technology, the digital transition, food security, and critical minerals.”
Working together as a group: low-hanging fruit, but little progress on the hard questions
The latter hours of the meeting produced several joint statements: members agreed on a series of measures to adopt and support artificial intelligence and quantum technologies. They also agreed to develop a critical minerals action plan, to adopt a wildfire charter, to counter migrant smuggling, and to condemn transnational repression.
But they couldn’t agree on a statement about Russia and Ukraine because of American efforts to soften the language, and had little to say on the Israel-Iran conflict beyond calling for de-escalation and re-affirming that the Iranian government mustn’t develop nuclear weapons.
Final verdict: beautiful setting, middling progress, no disasters. Overall, a qualified win for Carney, but only if he can keep the momentum up in areas that matter to Canadians.
Graphic Truth: G7 vs BRICS, who has more economic clout?
The G7 countries – the US, UK, Canada, Germany, France, Italy and Japan – will convene this weekend in Kananaskis, a rural town in the mountains of Alberta, Canada. High on the meeting’s agenda are tariffs, artificial intelligence, and international security, with special focus on Russian sanctions and Israel’s recent attacks on Iran.
While the G7 was originally formed as an informal grouping of the world’s wealthiest democracies, the BRICS – composed of Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa – have sought to challenge their dominance of the global agenda.
Here’s a look at how the share of the global economy held by G7 and BRICS nations has evolved over time.
California Governor Gavin Newsom speaks as he announces the Golden State Literacy Plan and deployment of literacy coaches statewide, at the Clinton Elementary School in Compton, California, USA, on June 5, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Newsom goes national, CDC reinstates DOGE’d employees, & More
8: California Governor Gavin Newsom posted an eight-minute video on social media Tuesday night in which he berated US President Donald Trump for sending federal troops into Los Angeles to support local police amid protests and riots against immigration enforcement. Newsom has been increasingly positioning himself as a national-level opponent of Trump.
450: The US Centers for Disease Control has reinstated 450 employees who were terminated in the recent rounds of DOGE-led layoffs, which cut 10,000 federal health workers. The reinstated employees work in a range of areas, including STD prevention, global health, environmental health, and lead poisoning prevention.
30 billion: Canada needs to invest at least $30 billion in its critical minerals industry by 2040 if it hopes to meet rising demand stoked by the green energy transition. Critical minerals such as lithium and copper are key components of electric vehicles, batteries, and solar panels. Industry leaders say permitting needs to be streamlined as well.
4: Formula 1 driver Max Verstappenwill attempt to win a record fourth consecutive Canadian Grand Prix when the race roars through the notoriously brake-heavy course on Montreal’s Île Notre-Dame this Sunday.Flags fly above the Peace Arch at a Canada-US border crossing in Blaine, Washington, USA, on April 2, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Canada-US deal takes shape, G7 kicks off in Kananaskis, Wildfires rage
Canada, US may be closer to a deal
Canadian and US officials may be approaching at least the framework of a deal covering trade and other issues, CBC reported Wednesday. Sources say that in exchange for tariff relief from the United States, Canada would agree to participate in Washington’s Golden Dome missile defense program and build infrastructure in the Arctic. But Canadian officials have cautioned there is as of yet no deal on the table.
The G7 summit: big guest list and big questions
The tarmac at Calgary International Airport will be clogged next week when leaders from around the world arrive for the G7 summit of the world’s advanced economy democracies at nearby Kananaskis. In addition to G7 leaders, the heads of Australia, Brazil, India, Mexico, and Ukraine will attend. The big question: Can seven of the world’s most influential countries agree on a strategy for key issues such as trade, the climate, and Ukraine when the most powerful one of all now has radically different views from the rest?
Wildfires pose health risks near and far
Another terrible wildfire season in the northern forest has forced tens of thousands of Canadians, many of them from isolated Indigenous communities, to be evacuated to cities as distant as Niagara Falls, where they are staying in university dorms and hotels. In addition to the terrible disruption for those residents, the fires are sending smoke and smog as far away as Milwaukee. Worryingly, there is reason to fear the resulting health hazards could be more severe than usual.
US President Donald Trump appears onstage during a visit at US Steel Corporation–Irvin Works in West Mifflin, Pennsylvania, USA, on May 30, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Trump doubles metal tariffs, Canada Liberals bid to secure the border, Wildfires spread
Trump doubles steel and aluminum duties
Days after a judge nixed Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, the US president signed an executive order doubling steel and aluminum duties to 50%. Trump hopes the tariffs will boost domestic steel and aluminum industries, but the higher duties are terrible news for Canada, which is the top exporter of both metals to the US. Canada’s US-bound exports of steel were already down before Trump doubled the tariffs. Now they’re set to drop further — and take jobs with them. Mark Carney must now decide if he’ll respond, and risk provoking Trump, or back down and betray the anti-Trump, “elbows up” rhetoric he ran on.
Liberals introduce border bill in new Parliament
On Tuesday, Public Safety Minister Gary Anandasangareeintroduced the Strong Borders Act, which aims to strengthen border security, combat the trafficking of fentanyl and guns, and tackle money laundering. Anandasangaree said the bill was “not exclusively about the United States,” but admitted it aimed to remedy certain “irritants for the US.” The law would give the government sweeping discretionary powers — to open mail, for instance — so it is expected to meet a measure of resistance in Parliament.
Canadian wildfires send toxic smoke south
Wildfires in Canada have burned 2.1 million hectares (5.2 million acres) of land so far this year, sending hazardous smoke into the Midwest and East Coast of the United States, and even as far as Europe. Experts say the wildfire season in Canada is off to an extraordinary, and dangerous, start, reminiscent of the 2023 season, which was the worst in the country’s history. The flames are putting at risk the health of millions on both sides of the border.U.S. President Donald Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney meet in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., May 6, 2025.
There’s at least one area where Canada can thank Trump
Canadians might not like to hear this, but given President Donald Trump’s tariffs and threats, there’s at least one area of economic policy where the country owes the US leader a strange sort of thanks.
For decades, Canada’s 13 provinces and territories have maintained trade barriers against each other, a bewildering arrangement of tariffs, quotas, and regulations that has boosted prices, reduced efficiency, and yielded some absurd stories: A New Brunswick man whose beer was confiscated as he crossed provincial lines after a trip to Quebec has taken his case all the way to the supreme court.
But in response to Trump’s economic warfare on Canada, Prime Minister Mark Carney has promised to eliminate interprovincial trade barriers by July 1, Canada Day, a date that is equal parts symbolic and, let’s say, ambitious. The hope is that the economic impact of Trump’s tariffs can be at least partially mitigated by dropping Canada’s internal trade barriers.
Since 2017, Canada has had a Canadian Free Trade Agreement, but it was far from comprehensive and full of exemptions. The federal government is now talking about “one Canadian economy,” not 13. There’s even a minister in charge of it, Dominic LeBlanc, who will work with Chrystia Freeland, who is responsible for internal trade.
The cost of internal trade barriers is disputed. Ontario says they sap CA$200 billion (US$146.4 billion) of GDP a year. Other observers aren’t so sure. What’s certain is that barriers have long existed in Canada for a variety of reasons, including local protectionism for key provincial industries, such as fisheries in Atlantic Canada and timber in British Columbia, and industry-specific regulations, like where fish or lumber can be processed.
Doing away with trade barriers isn’t just a matter of lowering duties, but also of streamlining and harmonizing regulations across provinces. It’s a big lift, especially when one province, Quebec, tends to insist on greater protection for, among other things, its culture and its dairy industry, citing its distinctness.
To make progress, Carney this week held a meeting with provincial and territorial leaders, which ended with a commitment to “rapidly” reach an agreement on consumer goods, shipping, and harmonizing credentials. A nurse registered in Ontario, for example, should be able to practice in Saskatchewan within a month of moving there.
Some provinces have already struck their own bilateral trade deals. Ontario introduced legislation in April to lower barriers. It has since penned agreements with Alberta, Prince Edward Island, and Saskatchewan. In April, New Brunswick and Newfoundland and Labrador signed their own free trade agreement. Quebec says it’s open to deals and has a bill similar to Ontario’s. Ditto Manitoba. Nova Scotia is undertaking similar work.
These agreements and bills look like progress, and they are. But experts warn the hard part lies ahead in implementing what trade expert Diya Jiang and Canada expert Daniel Béland note are the “complex and technical” elements involved in trade liberalization, including various provincial regulations that account for local geography and climate. Driving a truck through the mountains of BC is different than cruising through the plains of Manitoba, for example.
As economist Trevor Tombeputs it, “Serious action requires provincial action,” and while he notes we’re seeing some of that, “much will depend on provincial follow-through.” That’s to say, for instance, that a province will have to be willing to give up industry protections, like laws in Newfoundland and Labrador that mandate local fish processing.
Still, even with all the obstacles, Tombe concludes, “We might be entering a new era for internal trade in Canada.” And for that, Canada, unexpectedly, has Trump to thank.