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An Iranian newspaper with a cover photo of US President Donald Trump and US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, is seen in Tehran, Iran, on May 11, 2025.

Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS

What We’re Watching: US and Iran near mini-deal, Europe election extravaganza, Diss tracks at Eurovision

US and Iran edge toward “mini-deal” on nukes

US President Donald Trump said Thursday that the US and Iran have “sort of” agreed on terms for a nuclear deal, one day after a top Iranian adviser said Tehran is willing to eliminate weapons-grade uranium, limit enrichment, and allow international inspections — if sanctions are lifted immediately. But dismantling their nuclear program or ability to enrich uranium, as per the Iran nuclear deal negotiated in 2015, is off the table.

“While a full-scale deal like the [2015 deal] appears unlikely, both sides are showing interest in a limited ‘mini-deal’ that reduces tensions and creates more space for diplomacy,” says Eurasia Group Iran expert Gregory Brew. “A win for Trump and for his new friends in the Gulf.”

Election extravaganza: Big weekend for Europe

There will be a trio of elections on the continent this Sunday. Here’s a quick roundup of who’s voting and where.

Poland: The first round of the presidential election takes place this weekend, pitting Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, a centrist, against the right-wing Law and Justice leader Karol Nawrocki. The election will be a harbinger of Poland’s alignment with the European Union at a vital time for the bloc. Polls have Trzaskowski ahead, but well short of 50%, which means there will likely be a runoff between the two front-runners on June 1.

Portugal: The Iberian nation is holding its third election in as many years, leaving some of the electorate fed up with its stagnant government. Polls suggest the situation isn’t about to get better: Prime Minister Luis Montenegro’s center-right Democratic Alliance is ahead but doesn’t have enough support to gain a working majority.

Romania: Of all the elections this weekend, it’s the one in Bucharest that is garnering the most attention, after the Romanian Constitutional Court barred nationalist candidate Călin Georgescu from running over allegations of Russian meddling. George Simion has filled Georgescu’s shoes and will seek to triumph over the pro-EU candidate Nicusor Dan. With polls tied, the race is on a knife-edge.

At Eurovision 2025: Glitter, geopolitics, and a sauna diss track

Europe’s glitter-soaked, pyrotechnic-powered music competition fever dream — otherwise known as the Eurovision Song Contest — takes place Saturday at 9 p.m. CET (3 p.m. ET). It’s part talent show, part geopolitical popularity contest, and fully unhinged fun.

Unlike in the past two years, politics is taking a relative back seat this time around. However, there are two diss tracks. Sweden’s “Bara Bada Bastu” — the odds-on favorite — roasts Finland’s love of saunas, while Estonia’s viral “Espresso Macchiato” mocks Italian language and American work culture. Mamma mia!
Annie Gugliotta

The Graphic Truth: What’s behind American inflation?

US inflation rates have finally started to relax over the past 12 months: Prices rose at an annual rate of 2.3% in April, within touching distance of the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. This chart shows what product categories fed the inflation surge in 2022 — and its subsequent slowdown.

The recent drop in inflation rates is in large part thanks to plateauing transport costs, which spiked in 2021 and 2022 amid global supply-chain issues and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, housing costs have continued to rise at a fairly steady pace, a symptom of the current US property crunch.

Data center servers and components containing the newest artificial intelligence chips from Nvidia are seen on display at the company's GTC software developer conference in San Jose, California, USA, on March 19, 2025.

REUTERS/Stephen Nellis/File Photo

HARD NUMBERS: US lawmakers call for chip trackers, Elon’s PAC gets sued, Manitoba burns, Honda drains its Canadian battery investment, Rubber ducks migrate

8: Where do US advanced microchips go? US lawmakers want to know. A bipartisan group of eight congresspeople has introduced a bill requiring tracking technology on any export-bound artificial intelligence chips. The proposal, similar to a Senate bill introduced last week, is meant to stop cutting-edge American AI tech from going to China.

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US President Donald Trump is welcomed by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on May 13, 2025.

REUTERS/Brian Snyder

Dollar diplomacy: Finance is the focus as Trump heads to the Gulf

In his first diplomatic overseas trip since returning to office, Donald Trump is embarking on a four-day tour through a trio of Gulf states with the goal of bringing home over $1 trillion in deals and investment pledges – and a free $400 million plane for good measure.

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People shout slogans in front of the portrait of Sirri Sureyya Onder, a prominent pro-Kurdish party lawmaker and key figure in Turkey’s tentative process to end the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party’s (PKK) insurgency who died on Saturday at age 62, during his funeral in Istanbul, Turkey, on May 4, 2025.

REUTERS/Dilara Senkaya

Hard Numbers: Kurds in Turkey formally disband, Burkina Faso’s military murders civilians, White Afrikaners land in US, UK tries to curtail immigration, Top Argentina Court discovers Nazi docs

41: The revolution will not be finalized, as the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), a militant rebel group in Turkey, formally disbanded after a 41-year insurgency against the Turkish government. The original goal was to create an independent Kurdish state, but the group’s weakened position in Iraq and Syria forced it to declare a ceasefire in March, before ultimately dissolving. Turkey hasn’t fully secured peace, yet: it must now establish how to disarm the rebel group.

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US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer address the media after trade talks with China in Geneva, Switzerland, on May 11, 2025.

Keystone/EDA/Martial Trezzini/Handout via REUTERS

The US hits the reset button with China

Mother’s Day is a time to build bridges, apparently, as the United States and China both agreed to slash tariffs by 115 percentage points each for 90 days following talks in Geneva over the weekend. US tariffs on Chinese imports will plunge from 145% to 30%, while Chinese tariffs on US imports will sink from 125% to 10%.

What’s spurring a settlement? Both countries’ economies havetaken a hit ever since the two countries started a trade war around a month ago.

Will businesses buy the truce? At the height of the US-China trade war last month, Apple said they will shift iPhone production to India. We’ll be watching to see if there’s any plans to reverse course.

Bloodbath or breakthrough? Ukraine demands truce before talks

Peace talks between Ukraine and Russia are tentatively scheduled for May 15 in Istanbul, where Ukrainian President Vlodymyr Zelensky says he’ll be waiting to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin.

But Kyiv insists that an unconditional 30-day ceasefire take effect as of Monday – a condition Moscow has so far rejected.

What’s the White House view? US President Donald Trumpcalled on Ukraine to accept Russia’s offer to meet regardless of a truce, “to negotiate a possible end to the BLOODBATH.”

But does Russia really want peace? Iran is reportedly preparing to send Fath-360 missile launchers to Moscow, though Tehran denies this. If true, it casts doubt on Moscow's commitment to ending the conflict.

Speaking of the Middle East, Hamas said it would freeEdan Alexander, the last living American hostage, ahead of Trump’s visit to the region this week. It’s unclear what Hamas is getting in return.

Doubts loom over Kashmir truce

India and Pakistan announced a ceasefire in Kashmir on Saturday after the worst fighting in the disputed region in over two decades. The US claimed to have brokered the deal; however, India downplayed its role while Pakistan lauded Washington’s involvement.

But can it hold? The current truce is fragile: leaders from each side said they were keeping the peace, yet explosions were reported in the area. There may be peace for now, but all parties have their work cut out to maintain it.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer speaks on the phone to US President Donald Trump at a car factory in the West Midlands, United Kingdom, on May 8, 2025.

Alberto Pezzali/Pool via REUTERS

US-UK trade deal a victory for Starmer, with some caveats

When President Donald Trump announced a trade deal that will reduce US tariffs on UK cars and plane engines in return for greater access to the British market for American beef and chemicals, he singled out Prime Minister Keir Starmer for praise.

“The US and UK have been working for years to try and make a deal, and it never quite got there,” said Trump. “It did with this prime minister.”

The president’s comment twisted the knife into the UK Conservative Party, which tried — and failed — to achieve a trade deal with the Americans during its 14 years in power. It took Starmer, the Labour leader, to finally clinch the deal less than a year after entering office.

Starmer isn’t the only winner. Brexiteers cited the prospect of a US trade deal to further justify exiting the European Union. The deal caps a stellar week for Reform UK leader Nigel Farage, after his party made extraordinary strides in the local UK elections last Thursday.

There’s a caveat. The scope of the deal was somewhat limited, with many goods still subject to the 10% tariff — Trump said this rate was “pretty well set.” The UK tariff rate appears to have dropped, while the US one has risen, although the White House numbers can sometimes be off.

What’s Trump’s strategy? With this deal — the first the US has made since “Liberation Day” — it’s not clear whether the president’s main goal is protectionism or winning concessions from America’s allies.

The US did nab some wins from the pact, including access to UK meat markets, but they inked it with a country with which they already have a trade surplus. Trump thus achieved both of these goals, making it unclear where his priority lies.

US House Speaker Mike Johnson talks with reporters in the US Capitol on May 8, 2025.

Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call/Sipa USA

GOP retreats on Medicaid cuts

US House Speaker Mike Johnson is walking a tightrope on Medicaid — and wobbling.

After intense pushback from moderate Republicans, Johnson abandoned some of the GOP’s most aggressive proposals to cut federal funding for Medicaid, including a plan that would cap the federal government’s per capita grants to states for the program.

The background: A budget framework passed earlier this year commits Congress to slashing some $1.5 trillion in spending in order to fund the extension of President Donald Trump’s first term tax cuts without further ballooning the deficit.

Why the climbdown?The Congressional Budget Office estimates that 5.5 million Americans would lose coverage under the mooted cost cuts. More than 70 million Americans are currently enrolled in Medicaid, a program that is viewed positively by nearly 80% of the country, according to recent polls.

What’s the president’s position? Trump has said he will not touch entitlements, including social security and Medicaid, which further narrows the GOP’s realistic options.

The president has imposed a deadline of Memorial Day for a “big beautiful” budget bill. We’re watching to see how the Republicans close the gap, without turning off the tap.

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