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India vs. Pakistan: Rising tensions in South Asia
Could tensions between India and Pakistan boil back over into military conflict? Last May, India launched a wave of missile attacks into Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir, claiming it was targeting terrorist infrastructure. After four days of dangerous escalation, both sides accepted a ceasefire, putting an end to the most serious military crisis in decades between the two rival nuclear states. On GZERO World, former Pakistani Foreign Minister Hina Khar joins Ian Bremmer to discuss Pakistan’s perspective and where the conflict stands now.
Khar argues India didn’t provide credible evidence to justify the attacks and that Pakistan’s response challenged the narrative of India’s conventional military superiority. She sees China as a stabilizing force in the region and says it’s important for Pakistan to maintain broader strategic relationships within southeast Asia and the West, including the United States. Though the conflict has cooled, nerves are still on edge in Delhi and Islamabad. Now, more than ever, Khar says, it’s crucial for Pakistan to continue to strengthen its military capabilities, including nuclear deterrence, to defend its sovereignty.
“The India-Pakistan region is home to one fifth of humanity, and to put them at stake because of political engineering happening in your own country is very callous,” Khar says, “The moment one nuclear state decides to attack another, you do not know how quickly you go up the escalation ladder.”
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Pakistan needs to stand up to India, says former Foreign Minister Hina Khar
After nearly eight decades of on-again-off-again conflict, India and Pakistan neared the brink of all-out war last spring. The intense, four-day conflict was an unsettling reminder of the dangers of military escalation between two nuclear-armed adversaries. Though the ceasefire was reached and both sides claimed victory, Delhi and Islamabad are still on edge and tensions remain high. On the GZERO World Podcast, former Pakistani Foreign Minister Hina Khar joins Ian Bremmer to discuss Pakistan’s response to India’s strikes, which she believes were unjustified, and why Pakistan needs to defend itself from further aggression.
One fifth of the world’s population lives on the Indian subcontinent, and Khar says putting them at stake because of a political conflict is dangerous because “you do not know how quickly you can go up the escalation ladder.” Bremmer and Khar also discuss the US role in mediating the conflict with India, Pakistan’s domestic and economic challenges, its strategic partnership with China, and the dangers for global security if the world abandons a rules-based international order.
“As someone who was representing this country as foreign minister, I used to wonder, why were we reduced to eating grass to become a nuclear power?” Khar says, “And now, that is the only thing providing deterrence and security against a country which feels it can attack us anytime, any day.”
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Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi enter a hall for a family photo before a plenary session of the BRICS 2024 Summit in Kazan, Russia, on October 23, 2024.
What happened to that Pakistan-India war?
It’s been 18 days since India and Pakistan announced a ceasefire which ended the clashes that had killed dozens on either side of the de facto border in Kashmir. But while the guns are silent, the two arch rivals are still locked in a war of words, with each dispatching officials abroad to shape the narrative.
What’s happened since the ceasefire? The physical fighting – which erupted after a terror attack in Indian-controlled Kashmir that New Delhi blamed on Pakistan – has mostly paused. There were reports of violence in the immediate aftermath of the announcement, but neither government was fazed – they each stood by the ceasefire.
Even so, India-Pakistan relations have dropped to a new nadir, punctuated by New Delhi’s refusal to reinstate the Indus Waters Treaty. The pact outlines how each country can use reserves from the Indus river – without it, Pakistan is at risk of losing access, in the long run, to virtually its only water source. Signed in 1960, the agreement has survived several rounds of conflicts between these warring neighbors – including ones worse than this latest flare up – yet there are no signs that it will be patched back together this time.
“Pakistan will not be given the water which is rightfully India’s,” Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said last week, dampening Pakistan’s hopes of maintaining unfiltered access to a river basin that waters 90% of its crops.
So why the foreign missions? Islamabad is highlighting the importance of its own security, adding that it wants to ensure long-term peace and renew the water treaty. It seeks to pile the blame on New Delhi.
Modi’s crew rebukes these claims, and reiterates its belief that the Pakistani government has boosted terrorist groups in the area – the Indian prime minister said on Tuesday that this terrorism has been a part of Pakistan’s strategy since the country’s inception.
Who are India and Pakistan making their cases to? India is flooding the zone (shoutout, Stephen Miller), sending parliamentary delegations to 33 countries, including a raft of European heavyweights like Germany and Russia. Pakistan is being a little more selective: Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif visited Turkey – a close ally – on Sunday, while his deputy was in China last week.
Pakistan’s Trump card. Given his disparaging comments about Pakistan during his first term, US President Donald Trump’s return to office wasn’t expected to be a boon for Islamabad. Yet he has changed his tune, striking a more diplomatic tone between the two South Asian nuclear powers when the US has previously sided more with India over China-backed Pakistan.
It also just so happens a Trump family-backed business inked a crypto deal with Pakistan. Maybe that was just a coincidence. Either way, India isn’t pleased – which may explain its decision to barnstorm across Europe in search of non-US support.
Could the fighting recommence? It’s not outside the realm of possibility, if the rhetoric is any indicator. Modi wasn’t exactly conciliatory during an address on Monday, when he told Pakistanis to “eat bread peacefully, or else my bullet is there.” Pakistan hardly seems to be backing down, either: army leader Asim Munir, an influential figure who emphasizes sectarian differences, just had his term extended from three to five years, in a move that suggests further skirmishes could ensue.
So why the big messaging offensive? Does someone just want the air miles? It’s not clear if the diplomatic press is meant to engage global powers in mediation, or if it’s to line up backers in anticipation of another bout of flighting. Either way, neither side seems keen for all-out war nor a long-lasting peace – it looks instead like they want the Goldilocks scenario between the two.
What is Trump after in his latest Gulf states tour?
On Ian Bremmer’s World in 60 Seconds: Ian dives into the Brazil-China relationship, India and Pakistan ceasefire, and Trump’s Gulf States tour.
Ian Bremmer's takeaways:
- On Brazil-China ties: “As the Chinese de-risk away from the United States, that is a significant benefit to Brazil.”
- On India-Pakistan tensions,: “The ceasefire will hold—for now—but the region is more dangerous than it was a few weeks ago.”
- On Trump’s Middle East visit: “He (Trump) wants this to be the most successful foreign trip he’s had as president.”
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and then-US President Donald Trump shake hands before a meeting at Hyderabad House in Delhi, India, on Feb. 25, 2020.
India hopes Trump will lean its way
Last month, the Trudeau government expelled Indian diplomats after revealing allegations of assassination plots that Canadian officials linked to the highest levels of the Indian government. India denies the allegations and complains bitterly about a lack of security cooperation in dealing with what it sees as threats from Canadian Sikhs who are seeking an independent homeland in India.
On Wednesday, Canadian police confirmed that last month they arrested a man India calls a terrorist on gun charges.
The hostility between Canadian Sikhs and Hindus turned violent in the suburban Toronto community of Brampton earlier this month, leading to an angry denunciation from Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. India is now hoping Modi’s friend Trump will put Trudeau in his place and resolve the impasse in India’s favor.
But there is an active US prosecution of an Indian intelligence official over a plot to kill Sikh activists in both Canada and the United States. Trump is unlikely to turn a blind eye to that, says Jamie Tronnes, executive director of the Center for North American Prosperity and Security.
“Anyone who is looking for a foothold to do foreign interference that involves violence on citizens of a country on that country’s soil should be deterred strongly by the United States, particularly under Trump,” she says. “He is strong on national security, and he is not going to tolerate murder-for-hire plots on American soil.”
On the other hand, Trump tends to be motivated by transactional concerns, and India has a lot of leverage in the global chess match between China and the United States.