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The world hedges its bets on America
by ian bremmer

The world hedges its bets on America

Ever since Donald Trump returned to office last year, governments have been hedging bets on the future of American power and what it might mean for them.

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi at the National Diet in Tokyo on April 17, 2026.
What We're Watching

Japan loosens arms export restrictions, Hungary’s Magyar shows nationalist streak, Trump looks for new friends in Europe

Tokyo announced on Tuesday that it will remove restrictions on arms exports to countries with which it already has defense agreements, escalating its feud with Beijing.

QatarEnergy's liquefied natural gas production facilities in Ras Laffan Industrial City, Qatar, on March 2, 2026.
Analysis

Iran conflict brings energy boon for some, doom for others

The US-Israeli war with Iran has badly damaged oil & gas producers in the Gulf and consumers in the Indo-Pacific. But not all countries within those regions will feel the pain equally.

Sanae Takaichi announces running for presidential election of the LDP
What We're Watching

Japan critical minerals deal, Military take over in Madagascar, Argentina week in NYC

Australian mining giant Lynas will sell rare earths to Japan for 12 years in a major pact meant to chip away at China’s dominance of the global market.

​Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema reacts during the announcement of provisional results of the 2025 Gabonese presidential election by the Ministry of the Interior, at the headquaters of the Rassemblement des Batisseurs (RdB), in Libreville, Gabon, April 13, 2025.
Hard Numbers

Gabon suspends social media, Bulgaria to hold yet another election, Japan puts some money on the table, Philippine vice president declares presidential run

2.5 million: The population of Gabon who can no longer get onto certain social media platforms, like YouTube and TikTok, after the government suspended access on Tuesday.

​Bad Bunny performs during the Super Bowl halftime show at Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California, on Feb. 8, 2026.
Hard Numbers

Bad Bunny steals the show, Hong Kong democracy activist sentenced to 20 years in jail, Japanese markets split on Takaichi’s success, Socialist wins in Portugal

​Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, president of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), appeals for a candidate during a street speech of the House of Representatives Election Campaign in Shintomi Town, Miyazaki Prefecture on February 6, 2026. The Lower House election will feature voting and counting on February 8th.
What We're Watching

What We’re Watching: Big week for elections, US and China make trade deals, Suicide bombing in Pakistan

Japanese voters head to the polls on Sunday in a snap election for the national legislature’s lower house, called just three months into Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s tenure.

​U.S. President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi hold up signed documents regarding securing the supply of critical minerals and rare earths, at a bilateral meeting at Akasaka Palace in Tokyo, Japan, October 28, 2025.
What We're Watching

What We’re Watching: US critical minerals summit, Rafah crossing reopens, Border violence in Pakistan

Representatives from the European Union, United Kingdom, Japan, and others will meet in Washington this week to discuss a strategic alliance on critical minerals.

A teenager poses holding a mobile phone as a law banning social media for users under 16 in Australia takes effect, in Sydney, Australia, on December 10, 2025.
Hard Numbers

Hard Numbers: Australia tries to enforce social media ban, Japan’s opposition unites, Millions dodge Ukrainian draft, & More

US President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at the Federal Reserve Board building in Washington, D.C., USA, on July 24, 2025.
What We're Watching

What We’re Watching: Trump’s DOJ probes Fed’s Powell, Iran cracks down on protestors, Japan’s PM consider snap election