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Crowds gather in Times Square to celebrate the surrender of Japan, V-J Day, New York City, New York, USA, U.S. Army Signal Corps, August 15, 1945
Hard Numbers: 80th anniversary of V-J day, Trump wants a stake in Intel, ICE eyes detention expansion, South Korean producers win “Baby Shark” lawsuit
80: Today marks the 80th anniversary of Victory over Japan Day, or “V-J Day”, the day that Imperial Japan surrendered to the Allied forces, bringing an end to World War Two. We’ve previously covered how Japan and the US’ relationship have since evolved.
7%: Intel shares rose by 7% on Thursday after reports emerged that the White House was considering purchasing an ownership stake in the US-based chipmaker. The reports highlight Trump’s increasing willingness to intervene in private chip companies, with Nvidia and AMD agreeing to hand the White House 15% of their Chinese revenues earlier this week.
107,000: US President Donald Trump has reportedly ordered a major expansion of ICE’s detention facilities – raising the number of beds by over 41,000 to 107,000. While the Department of Homeland Security has not confirmed details, the project is being funded by Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill passed in congress last month.
6: Fear not, the hit children’s song “Baby Shark” is here to stay. After a grueling six-year legal battle, South Korea’s Supreme Court ruled against US composer Jonathan Wright, who filed a lawsuit accusing the producers of the song of plagiarism. You can listen to Wright’s version here and decide for yourself.
US President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba participate in a news conference at the White House in Washington, D.C., USA, on February 7, 2025.
Enemies to allies: The US and Japan 80 years after Hiroshima
Eighty years ago this week, the US dropped atomic bombs on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, killing more than 200,000 people, mostly civilians. It was the first and, so far, only use of nuclear weapons in war.
In Japan, remembrance ceremonies honor the victims and amplify the calls for peace from the hibakusha, the Japanese term for the 100,000 remaining survivors of the attacks.
In the US, by contrast, there is no official federal government commemoration. Former President Barack Obama remains the only sitting US leader to visit the Hiroshima Peace Memorial Ceremony. President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance declined invitations to attend this year’s ceremony. The US public has mixed views on the bombings – 35% of Americans believe they were justified in order to bring a swift end to the Pacific phase of World War II, 31% say they were not, and the rest are unsure.
But after the war, the US and Japan moved, slowly and often uneasily, towards one of the strongest bilateral partnerships in the world. After Japan’s surrender in 1945, the US occupied the country, rewriting its constitution, demilitarizing its forces, and rebuilding its economy to keep it from falling under Soviet influence. The Cold War transformed former enemies into partners: Japan hosted US military bases, while Washington extended security guarantees under the 1951 US-Japan Security Treaty.
In recent years, that alliance has taken on renewed urgency. Faced with the increasing assertiveness of its longtime regional rival China, Tokyo has begun to edge away from strict pacifism toward what Eurasia Group’s Japan Director David Boling calls “a more realistic approach to defense.” In 2022, Japan announced a $287.1 billion re-militarization strategy over five years, doubling its defence budget to about 2% of GDP. In 2025, it passed a record-breaking $55 billion defense budget, and aims to eventually double its annual military spending, which would make it the world’s third biggest military spender after the United States and China.
For the US, Japan is not just a crucial counterweight to Beijing’s military ambitions, says Boling, it is an “unsinkable aircraft carrier” in the Pacific and a trusted diplomatic bridge to Southeast Asia, where many countries are wary of being forced to choose sides and are more receptive to messaging from Tokyo than Washington.
And yet there are also fresh tensions in the relationship, as Trump has questioned the value of a US-Japan alliance in which the US is the overwhelming military power, and has targeted Japan with higher tariffs in order to rebalance their trade relationship.
Still, as Boling points out, divergences of opinion are only likely to go so far while both countries share a common concern:
“If the United States is going to have a successful approach to China on national security and on trade,” he says, “it needs Japan in its corner.”
FFM Mogami at the Yokosuka Naval Base on April 8, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Japan wins huge Oz carrier contract, Migrant boat sinks off Yemen, US to require bonds from visa-seekers, Taiwan arrests chip snoops
$6.5 billion: Japan won a $6.5 billion defense contract to build 11 new warships for Australia’s navy on Tuesday. The deal comes as Australia undertakes a major defense overhaul in order to counter China’s expanding presence in the Indo-Pacific.
68: At least 68 African migrants have died after a boat capsized off the coast of Yemen on Sunday. Yemen is a major transit route for migrants from the Horn of Africa – which includes Ethiopia, Somalia, Djibouti, and Eritrea – who go to the Gulf monarchies in search of work. The overall death toll is feared to be greater than 140.
15,000: The US is planning to require some visa applicants to pay bonds of up to $15,000, as President Donald Trump continues his crackdown on immigration. The State Department said the measure will target countries whose citizens overstay their visas most often: looking at you, Colombia, Mexico, Canada, Haiti, Venezuela, and Spain.
6: Taiwanese authorities have arrested six people suspected of stealing trade secrets from TSMC, the world’s most advanced semiconductor manufacturer. While their nationalities haven’t been made public yet, China’s Huawei and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) and the US’s Intel trail far behind TSMC, which supplies chips to Nvidia and Apple.
Trump pulls US out of UNESCO, again
In this episode of World in :60, Ian Bremmer breaks down Zelensky gutting anti-corruption agencies in Ukraine, the rise of Japan's 'Japanese First' Party, and Trump's UNESCO exit.
Is Zelensky putting EU support at risk by gutting Ukraine’s anti-corruption agencies? Not really, says Ian Bremmer: “EU support is considered increasingly existential given what is at risk with the fight agains Russia.”
In Japan, a rising nationalist party wants nuclear weapons and fewer immigrants. “They’re not MAGA, but they are anti-establishment.”
And Trump exits UNESCO, again. “It’s not just about UNESCO. It’s about whether the US is seen as reliable anymore.”
Graphic Truth: Japan’s ruling coalition loses majority
Japan’s ruling coalition lost control of the upper house in Sunday’s election, further weakening Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba amid growing domestic pressure and international challenges. To retain its majority, the Liberal Democratic Party and its partner Komeito needed to win 50 seats – they got only 47. This follows the LDP’s worst electoral showing in 15 years in last fall’s Lower House election. Rising inflation and opposition calls for tax cuts resonated with voters, while the far-right Sanseito party gained ground with a nationalist, anti-immigration platform. Despite the setback, Ishiba vowed to stay on, stressing the importance of upcoming US trade talks as Japan faces an August tariff deadline. For a refresher on why Shigeru was in such trouble to begin with, see here.
Japanese Prime Minister and the ruling Liberal Democratic Party leader Shigeru Ishiba is surrounded by security policemen as he meets with his supporters after he delivered a campaign speech for his party's candidate Masaaki Waki for the Upper House election in Yokohama, suburban Tokyo, Japan, on July 18, 2025.
Could a hard-right party swing Japan’s election?
Over the past decade, the world’s leading industrial democracies have become intensely polarized, particularly with the rise of anti-immigration populism in Europe and the United States. Japan, where the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has led governments for all but four of the past 70 years, has defied that trend. But with elections looming this weekend, opinion polls say that may be changing fast.
On Sunday, Japan faces elections for the Upper House of the National Diet, the country’s legislature (click here for a good primer on how Upper House elections work). Last fall, the LDP-led coalition government lost its majority in the Lower House, and it badly needs an electoral rebound to avoid a period of uncertainty the country hasn’t seen in decades.
That rebound isn’t looking likely. A poll from broadcaster NHK found that Prime Minister Ishiba Shiberu’s approval rating fell from 39% in June to just 31% this week. His party is faring even worse. Support for the LDP dropped from 31.6% in June to a startling 24% now. Recent surveys from the Yomiuri Shimbun and Nikkei flash similar warning signs.
If the current governing coalition of the LDP and junior partner Komeito loses its Upper House majority, Ishiba’s future as PM will immediately come into question as we see the possible opening of negotiations with opposition parties on joining the government. There’s even a small chance that enough of Japan’s long-fragmented opposition could join forces to form an opposition-led coalition government.
Where is the LDP's public support going? Even in Japan, xenophobic populism is having a political moment as the need for migrant labor in a country with an aging population trumps a longtime public preference for cultural homogeneity and the immigration restrictions that protect it.
Sanseito, a rising party of the right, is an explicitly “Japan First,” anti-globalist, anti-immigrant upstart that’s now capturing enough attention in tough economic times that it could win 10 or more seats on Sunday – the hard-right party currently only has two seats in the Upper House. Given that Sanseito looks to be drawing most of its support from voters who’ve historically backed the LDP, it might also cost the long-dominant party its majority in a close election.
Sanseito is likely benefitting from Japan’s current economic hardship – rising prices, especially for imported food and energy, and falling real wages, in particular – fueled in part by a historically weak yen. Even at a time of dollar weakness, the Japanese currency fell to 149 yen against the dollar earlier this week. All this comes at a time when US President Donald Trump is driving a hard bargain with Japan’s beleaguered government on trade terms.
In short, Japan is not a country prone to political turmoil, but the results this weekend could change that very quickly.
China and Japan under pressure from Trump's tariff threats
In this episode of Ian Bremmer’s World in :60, Ian breaks down the latest on US trade tensions, Iran’s nuclear program, and Trump’s meeting with Netanyahu.
On US tariffs, Ian says Japan and China face “radically different” situations.
As Iran cuts ties with nuclear inspectors, Ian says they’re “taking their program dark.”
On Trump’s recent meeting with Netanyahu, Ian says a Gaza ceasefire remains uncertain. Though Netanyahu nominated Trump for a Nobel Peace Prize, Ian points out, “That’s nice for Trump, but not a Gaza ceasefire.”
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Mayor of London Sadiq Khan leave the St Paul’s Cathedral, where a service of commemoration took place to mark the 20th anniversary of the deadly July 7, 2005, London bombings in which four suicide bombers targeted London's public transport system, in London, United Kingdom, on July 7, 2025.
Hard Numbers: UK marks London bombing anniversary, Japan suffers a thousand tremors, Paris’ main river reopens, & More
20: The United Kingdom today commemorates the 20th anniversary of the suicide bombings on London’s public transport services that killed 52 people and injured over 700 more. The four perpetrators were all UK citizens. Two had trained with al-Qaeda the previous year.
1,000: The Japanese government is warning of more earthquakes this July after 1,000 tremors rattled islands in the Kagoshima prefecture, including a 5.5-magnitude quake Saturday on the island of Kyushu. Authorities have stressed that none of this is related to the popular manga series, “The Future I Saw,” whose prediction of a catastrophic Japanese quake went so viral that it dented tourism – the number of visitors from Hong Kong fell 11% in May compared to the same month last year.
$4 million: Boston Consulting Group (BCG) staff reportedly did $4 million worth of work modeling the costs of relocating Palestinians from the Gaza strip, and supported the launch of the controversial US- and Israeli-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF). BCG has since disavowed its involvement and emphasized that the company “was not paid for any of this work.”
$1.5 billion: The River Seine in Paris reopened to the public this weekend, following a $1.5 billion clean-up project commissioned ahead of the Olympics last year. Swimming in the Seine has been banned for more than 100 years due to concerns over pollution and river traffic.
1: Suriname’s National Assembly elected Jennifer Geerlings-Simons, 71, as the country’s first female president on July 6. A doctor by profession, Geerlings-Simons has promised to meet the needs of young people and will oversee Suriname’s impending oil boom, which is set to start in 2028 with a major offshore project.