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A Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force ship searching for two MSDF helicopters in waters east of Torishima Island in the Izu Island chain in the Pacific after they crashed.
Hard Numbers: Japanese helicopter crash, Violence spreads in Sudan, Biden resumes deportations to Haiti, Protests against mass tourism in Canary Islands
2: Two Japanese navy helicopters crashed over the weekend during nighttime training in the Pacific Ocean south of Tokyo, leaving one dead and seven missing. Officials believe it’s “highly likely” that the two choppers collided. The US pledged its support after the crash, offering to help with the search and rescue. Japan in recent years has boosted defense spending and strengthened military cooperation with the US amid concerns over China’s ambitions in the region.
800,000: Top UN officials on Friday warned that Sudan’s civil war was placing 800,000 people in the city of El Fasher in “extreme and immediate danger.” Fighting there could “unleash bloody intercommunal strife throughout Darfur,” says UN political affairs chief Rosemary DiCarlo. The war in Sudan, which just entered its second year, has displaced eight million people and left 25 million in desperate need of humanitarian assistance.
50: The US on Thursday restarted deportation flights to Haiti, which has been consumed by deadly gang violence, sending about 50 Haitians back to the Caribbean nation. The move was fervently decried by rights groups and faced pushback from some Democratic lawmakers in Washington. President Joe Biden has felt pressure to take a stronger approach to illegal immigration as Republicans zero in on the issue of border security amid an election year.
14 million: Tens of thousands of people in the Canary Islands took to the streets on Saturday to protest against mass tourism, which they say is putting too much strain on the Spanish archipelago and driving up housing costs while depleting resources. Last year, nearly 14 million people visited the Canary Islands, which is home to 2.2 million people. The protesters called for authorities to limit the number of visitors and place more restrictions on property purchases by foreigners, among other steps.
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., U.S. President Joe Biden and Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida are pictured ahead of their trilateral summit at the White House in Washington on April 11, 2024.
Manila gets a big boost, but does it matter to Beijing?
Washington and Tokyo promised Manila they would help secure its seas and upgrade its infrastructure at their trilateral summit in Washington on Thursday — all big gestures, but what do they look like from Beijing?
Political winds have shifted against China in the Philippines since President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. came to power in June 2022. His predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte, allegedly sealed a secret deal with China that is now at the center of a dangerous conflict in the South China Sea.
Duterte allegedly agreed not to send reconstruction supplies to a beached ship that Manila uses to control the disputed South Thomas Shoal. Marcos said Wednesday he was “horrified” by any deal that tells Manila what it can do on its own territory, but his attempts to resupply the hulk in March were intercepted by Chinese ships, resulting in injuries. If an incident like this turns deadly, it could spark a war that brings in America and Japan, hence the show of unity in Washington.
Beijing also sees the South Thomas Shoal as a sovereignty issue, and nothing Joe Biden or Fumio Kishida promised today is likely to change China’s tune. China’s Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning on Thursday reiterated warnings against violating Beijing’s claims in the South China Sea.
Japan Prime Minister Fumio Kishida poses with U.S President Joe Biden as they are on the way to state dinner in Washington DC, U.S, on April 10, 2024.
Biden and Kishida bromance is meant to make Xi sweat
The White House showered Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida with gifts and honors during his state visit starting Wednesday, but the friendly display is aimed just as much at Beijing as it is Tokyo.
Kishida and Biden announced an upgrade to the longstanding US-Japan defense agreement on Wednesday that will make Japan’s military more agile by appointing a local US command and organizing a joint military-industrial production committee. The two will hold a trilateral meeting with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. on Thursday to discuss further military cooperation.
“The US-Japan security alliance – even though it’s remarkably strong – is not well integrated and unified in a way where forces can rapidly respond,” says Eurasia Group Japan director David Boling, “The long-term goal is for a combined command, with deep force integration, that can respond lickety-split to emergency contingencies.”
A Paul Simonconcert over ribeye must be a nice change of atmosphere for Kishida, who is unpopular and struggling to put a lid on party scandals at home. One of the few areas where he does relatively well with voters is foreign policy, and Kishida has continued the augmentation of Japan’s armed forces while bolstering relations with South Korea, Taiwan, and the Philippines — all potential conflict zones with China.
Tokyo’s relationship with Manila has seen the greatest strides forward, including a new agreement that could see Japanese troops deployed to the archipelago.
“On the Philippines, Japan has recognized that any contingency that escalates into a kinetic conflict is going to immediately implicate Japan,” says Eurasia Group senior analyst Jeremy Chan. After all, many of the US troops and ships that would support the Philippines (or Taiwan or South Korea) are stationed in Japan, making US bases there tempting targets for China.
We’re watching for Beijing’s reaction to Thursday’s trilateral.
FILE PHOTO - A Philippine flag flutters from BRP Sierra Madre, a dilapidated Philippine Navy ship that has been aground since 1999 and became a Philippine military detachment on the disputed Second Thomas Shoal, part of the Spratly Islands, in the South China Sea March 29, 2014.
Can the US and Philippines get Beijing to back off?
On Monday, 3,500 US and Filipino troops began what could become their largest-ever annual training exercises on the Philippine island of Luzon. This came a day after major multilateral naval drills in the South China Sea and just ahead of a trilateral US-Philippines-Japan summit in Washington on Thursday.
The message to China? Take the US-Philippines alliance seriously.
How we got here: China’s beef with the Philippines is over control of the South China Sea, which Beijing sees as its territory. Manila deliberately beached a ship on the disputed Second Thomas Shoal in 1999 and has based a small contingent of Marines in the hulk ever since.
But that shell is falling apart, and when Manila tried to send reconstruction supplies last month, Chinese Coast Guard ships blasted the supply vessel with water cannons, immobilizing it and injuring several aboard.
“China is going up to 9 out of 10 of what it can do short of an armed attack on a public vessel, which would likely trigger the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty obligations,” says Jeremy Chan, a senior analyst at the Eurasia Group.
Could it lead to war? Washington hopes displays of allied strength and unity will keep Beijing from crossing the line, but Beijing is equally determined to assert what it sees as sovereign rights.
“This is one of China’s absolute red lines,” says Chan. “The South China Sea is one of their core interests and part of party doctrine, just like Taiwan.”
Thursday’s trilateral will focus on joint efforts to deter China and will likely include announcements of upgraded US-Japan security ties.FILE PHOTO: Chinese Coast Guard vessels fire water cannons towards a Philippine resupply vessel Unaizah May 4 on its way to a resupply mission at Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea, March 5, 2024.
Is the South China Sea the next Sarajevo?
The US, Japan, Australia, and the Philippines banded together Sunday for their first joint naval exercises in the South China Sea to push back against Beijing’s aggression and territorial claims in the region. A recent op-ed published in the state-owned China Daily drew parallels between current tensions with the Philippines over the disputed maritime zone and the “Sarajevo gunshot” that preceded World War I. This view is echoed by China expert Gordon Chang, who told Fox News that “it’s more likely that the fight starts over the Philippines than it starts over Taiwan or Japan.”
Cue the cavalry: These drills, including anti-submarine warfare training, are designed to uphold the rule of law and freedom of navigation, according to a joint communique. China said it conducted its own military drills in the region in response. The drills come just ahead of a meeting between US President Joe Biden, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, and Filipino President Ferdinand Marcos on Wednesday, when the allies will discuss further cooperation in the South China Sea — with bigger ambitions on the horizon.
The AUKUS alliance is also flirting with the idea of inviting Japan to be a new partner in countering China's assertiveness. Japan would engage in “Pillar Two” of the Alliance, which commits members to jointly developing quantum computing, undersea, hypersonic, artificial intelligence, and cyber technology. (Pillar One, which will deliver nuclear-powered attack submarines to Australia, will not include Japan. Before JAUKUS is born, however, experts say Japan must enhance its cyber defenses and better protect sensitive information. We’ll be watching for an impending announcement at the summit on Wednesday.Commander Shingo Nashinoki, 50, and soldiers of the Japanese Ground Self-Defense Force's Amphibious Rapid Deployment Brigade (ARDB), Japan's first marine unit since World War Two, take part in a military drill as U.S. Marines observe, on the uninhabited Irisuna island close to Okinawa, Japan, November 15, 2023.
Japanese troops in the Philippines?
Before an historic trilateral meeting on April 12 between US President Joe Biden, Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, and Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr, the Philippine ambassador to the US has said Tokyo and Manila are negotiating a “reciprocal access agreement” that would allow the Japanese and Philippine militaries to train and conduct joint exercises on each other’s territory. Given the ugly World War II history between the two countries, that would be a startling development.
Japan’s foreign ministry has cast doubt on the specifics of this plan. It’s true, said a spokesperson, that the “implementation of this agreement will enhance the interoperability of the Japanese and Philippine] troops, but it is not true that we are discussing deploying the Self-Defense Forces in the Philippines,” he added.
It’s not clear, however, whether a temporary placement of Japanese troops in the Philippines to take part in joint exercises with US forces stationed there would create the same controversy inside Japan, where pacifism remains a potent political force, as a more permanent rotation of Japanese forces there.
But it is clear that the US, Japan, and the Philippines want Beijing to recognize their concerns over assertive Chinese actions in the South China Sea.
Lots of foreign traveler are seen at Fushimi Inari-taisha Shrine in Kyoto City, Kyoto Prefecture on April 20, 2023. The number of tourists coming to Japan is increasing as the pandemic of new coronavirus COVID-19 has calmed down.
Hard Numbers: Foreign travel to Japan surges, Ethiopian diplomat expelled, Safari turns deadly, ABBA’s winning ‘Waterloo’
89: Japan’s weak yen is leading to a tourism surge, with foreign visitors jumping a whopping 89% in February — to 2.78 million people — compared to a year ago. Hotels, in turn, are fuller, and the day rates for stays are up roughly 25% since last year.
72: Ethiopia's ambassador has 72 hours to leave Somalia amid a spat over Ethiopian plans to build a naval base in the de facto autonomous region of Somaliland. Mogadishu is also closing two Ethiopian consulates and pulling its ambassador from Addis Ababa. Tensions between the two countries boiled over when Ethiopia offered possible recognition of Somaliland as part of the port deal, which Somalia sees as a move to annex part of Somalia to Ethiopia.
1: An 80-year-old American woman died while on a safari in Zambia this past weekend after a bull elephant charged at the vehicle she was in, flipping it. The tour company says the truck was blocked by the terrain and couldn’t get away from the agitated pachyderm. Last month, a similar attack took place in South Africa when a bull elephant lifted a 22-seat safari truck several times before letting it drop. There were no deaths reported in that incident.
50: It’s been 50 years to the day since ABBA won their first Eurovision song contest with “Waterloo.” Semifinal rounds for this year’s contest kick off next month, and, despite the competition's goal of staying apolitical, controversy over Israel's participation is already front and center.Smoke rises after what the Iranian media said was an Israeli strike on a building close to the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Syria April 1, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Aid group pauses Gaza operations, South Africa’s water crisis, Chinese manufacturing growth, New British Museum probe, Japan’s royal Insta debut
½: About half of Johannesburg’s 5.5 million residents have suffered water shortages, or even full outages, over the past several weeks. This is a major political problem for the African National Congress, which has led South Africa’s government since the end of apartheid in 1994 and now faces a national election next month.
6: Chinese manufacturing activity grew in March for the first time in six months. News of a possible economic upturn will be welcomed by many around the world because China’s weakness has been a major drag on global economic expectations in recent months.
11: A nonprofit information watchdog says the British Museum should return 11 sacred Ethiopian altar tablets looted by British soldiers following the Battle of Maqdala in 1868. Over more than 150 years in the museum’s collection, the wood and stone tablets have never been displayed publicly, and internal debates over their future have remained secret. For more on the debate about “Who Owns Art?”, see our recent GZERO Reports piece, which begins with an Egyptian obelisk in a snowstorm.