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China and Japan under pressure from Trump's tariff threats
In this episode of Ian Bremmer’s World in :60, Ian breaks down the latest on US trade tensions, Iran’s nuclear program, and Trump’s meeting with Netanyahu.
On US tariffs, Ian says Japan and China face “radically different” situations.
As Iran cuts ties with nuclear inspectors, Ian says they’re “taking their program dark.”
On Trump’s recent meeting with Netanyahu, Ian says a Gaza ceasefire remains uncertain. Though Netanyahu nominated Trump for a Nobel Peace Prize, Ian points out, “That’s nice for Trump, but not a Gaza ceasefire.”
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Mayor of London Sadiq Khan leave the St Paul’s Cathedral, where a service of commemoration took place to mark the 20th anniversary of the deadly July 7, 2005, London bombings in which four suicide bombers targeted London's public transport system, in London, United Kingdom, on July 7, 2025.
Hard Numbers: UK marks London bombing anniversary, Japan suffers a thousand tremors, Paris’ main river reopens, & More
20: The United Kingdom today commemorates the 20th anniversary of the suicide bombings on London’s public transport services that killed 52 people and injured over 700 more. The four perpetrators were all UK citizens. Two had trained with al-Qaeda the previous year.
1,000: The Japanese government is warning of more earthquakes this July after 1,000 tremors rattled islands in the Kagoshima prefecture, including a 5.5-magnitude quake Saturday on the island of Kyushu. Authorities have stressed that none of this is related to the popular manga series, “The Future I Saw,” whose prediction of a catastrophic Japanese quake went so viral that it dented tourism – the number of visitors from Hong Kong fell 11% in May compared to the same month last year.
$4 million: Boston Consulting Group (BCG) staff reportedly did $4 million worth of work modeling the costs of relocating Palestinians from the Gaza strip, and supported the launch of the controversial US- and Israeli-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF). BCG has since disavowed its involvement and emphasized that the company “was not paid for any of this work.”
$1.5 billion: The River Seine in Paris reopened to the public this weekend, following a $1.5 billion clean-up project commissioned ahead of the Olympics last year. Swimming in the Seine has been banned for more than 100 years due to concerns over pollution and river traffic.
1: Suriname’s National Assembly elected Jennifer Geerlings-Simons, 71, as the country’s first female president on July 6. A doctor by profession, Geerlings-Simons has promised to meet the needs of young people and will oversee Suriname’s impending oil boom, which is set to start in 2028 with a major offshore project.
U.S. Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC) speaks to reporters between votes at the U.S. Capitol building in Washington, U.S., January 23, 2024.
What We’re Watching: Senate vote on Trump’s big bill, Thai PM in hot water, Japan's name-change game
Trump’s tax-and-spending bill faces razor-thin Senate vote
The US Senate will vote today on President Donald Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill”. The legislation would make many of Trump’s 2017 tax cuts permanent and would boost spending on the military and immigration enforcement, but its proposed cuts could also leave nearly 12 million people without health insurance by 2034. That, and a projected $3.3 trillion national debt increase over the next decade, has stoked opposition even within the Republican party. GOP Senators Rand Paul and Thom Tillis – who announced he won’t seek reelection – are already opposed, meaning Trump can afford only two more defections. Expect today to be a marathon of votes and revisions to the legislation.
Thailand’s PM in hot water over cross-border phone call
Thousands of protestors gathered in Bangkok yesterday, demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra over a leaked phone call in which she was heard obsequiously flattering Cambodia’s still-influential former leader Hun Sen. The call played poorly in the light of a recent border spat between the two countries. Paetongtarn defended the call as a negotiation tactic, but the streets say she’s compromising Thailand’s sovereignty. Thailand’s Constitutional Court will rule this week on a petition calling for her removal.
Japan’s name change game
A campaign is afoot in Japan to relax a law that effectively requires women to take their husband’s last names. Proponents of the change, which is supported by most Japanese, say it will increase gender equality, boost Japan’s alarmingly low birthrate, and avoid a situation in which, over time, everyone ends up with the most common last name: “Sato.” But the governing LDP’s hard-right wing is opposed, and with an upper house election in July, the party wants no trouble. For now, “Satos all the way down” looks like Japan’s destiny after all.
Graphic Truth: G7 vs BRICS, who has more economic clout?
The G7 countries – the US, UK, Canada, Germany, France, Italy and Japan – will convene this weekend in Kananaskis, a rural town in the mountains of Alberta, Canada. High on the meeting’s agenda are tariffs, artificial intelligence, and international security, with special focus on Russian sanctions and Israel’s recent attacks on Iran.
While the G7 was originally formed as an informal grouping of the world’s wealthiest democracies, the BRICS – composed of Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa – have sought to challenge their dominance of the global agenda.
Here’s a look at how the share of the global economy held by G7 and BRICS nations has evolved over time.
US President Donald Trump is joined by Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick and Vice President JD Vance while announcing a trade agreement with the United Kingdom in the Oval Office on May 8, 2025.
Analyzing the US trade court’s ruling against Trump’s tariffs
On Wednesday evening, the US Court of International Trade came down with a seismic ruling: President Donald Trump could not impose his “reciprocal” tariffs, which include his 10% across-the-board levy and the extra duties he announced on “Liberation Day.”
What does that mean for the president’s trade agenda? For politics in Washington? And for businesses? We asked several of the best minds in the world from Eurasia group, and here’s what they had to say.
So, let’s start with the major questions for Trump: What is the impact of the ruling? What tariffs will remain in place? Will he fight back?
The ruling blocks Trump from using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to implement blanket tariffs, a reminder that the US political system still impose some restraints on the president, according to Eurasia Group’s Head of Research Jon Lieber.
- “Even though Trump continues to shatter Washington norms and is moving so fast the courts can barely keep up, there are still meaningful checks on his power that will be brought by the courts.”
The ruling does leave in place Trump’s other tariffs on specific sectors, like the ones on aluminum, auto parts, and steel, as well as the upcoming duties on pharmaceuticals. These sectoral tariffs are more complicated to implement, though, says Eurasia Group US analyst Noah Daponte-Smith.
- “Sectorals focus on specific sectors and require a full investigation beforehand. You can’t just declare them out of the blue.”
Trump will fight the court’s ruling – White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller has already decried it as “judicial coup.” A federal appeals court temporarily reinstated the tariffs on Thursday, pending the administration’s appeal. A big reason for Trump’s response is that there are many benefits to the president from introducing new tariffs via IEEPA, per Robert Kahn, Eurasia Group’s managing director of Global Macro.
- “He’s turned to it often because of the flexibility, the leverage it gives, [and the] ability to basically use it in a wide variety of circumstances.”
Even if the ruling is upheld, though, Lieber predicts that Trump “will likely find other, narrower and more administratively burdensome ways to implement tariffs.” All to say, Trump’s trade war isn’t done yet.
How will this ruling affect bilateral trade negotiations involving the US?
Several countries have tried negotiating a trade deal with the United States since Trump announced his “reciprocal” tariffs on April 2. The United Kingdom nabbed one earlier this month.
But the court’s ruling could cut Trump’s leverage.
An interesting case in point is Japan, which has held regular talks with the US over a trade deal in recent weeks. Tokyo’s extra leverage means it will be more cautious about what it offers to Washington, according to David Boling, Eurasia Group’s director for Japan and Asian trade.
- “Japan will be more careful about making any big concessions, until the legality of IEEPA is decided. Likewise, US negotiators are likely to move cautiously, waiting for the legal clouds to clear.”
South Korea is also negotiating with the United States over a trade deal, but the talks may become less urgent, per Eurasia Group regional expert Jeremy Chan.
- “I think it will marginally decrease the pressure on South Korea to get a deal, and the urgency over a July 8 timeline is also gone, … so we can expect somewhat slower deliberations but still continued interest on both sides to agree to something (likely after Japan).”
What does the court ruling mean for businesses?
Markets edged up in response to the court ruling, on expectations that it would reduce the chances of an economically disruptive trade war. Kahn, though, remains skeptical of the long-term benefits to businesses and markets, saying the ruling “adds an additional layer of uncertainty to [investment].”
- “I don’t think there’s a clear consensus yet on what happens [next]. I do think it’s important to emphasize that the president remains committed to his tariff agenda, and we have to assume that he will fall back on the other tools in his arsenal.”
Detainees stand behind a fence at the Bluebonnet Detention Facility, where Venezuelans at the center of a Supreme Court ruling on deportation are held, in Anson, Texas, U.S. April 22, 2025.
Hard Numbers: SCOTUS removes protections for Venezuelans, France to build overseas prison, Rice prices soak Japan’s PM, US borrowing costs rise
350,000: The US Supreme Court ruled on Monday that the Trump administration can end temporary deportation protections for nearly 350,000 Venezuelans, making them vulnerable to mass deportation.
45 million: After a series of attacks on prison workers, France plans to build a new high-security prison in French Guiana, an overseas department of France which borders Brazil. The $45 million facility, meant to hold drug traffickers and radical Islamists, could open as soon as 2028, and will be located deep in the Amazon jungle.
27.4: With upper house elections approaching, Japan’s current government is facing its lowest approval ratings yet, as support for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s cabinet has fallen to 27.4%. Shigeru is blamed in part for soaring rice prices, which have doubled over the last year.
5.03: On Monday, US long-term borrowing costs edged up to 5.03%, the highest level since late 2023. The increase reflects the loss of the country’s triple-A credit rating, and concerns that Donald Trump’s major tax and budget bill will plunge the US government into even further debt.
Containers on a cargo ship are seen at an industrial port in Tokyo, Japan April 3, 2025.
Beijing tries to woo an uninterested Tokyo over joint tariff fight
Chinese Premiere Li Qiang sent Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba a letter asking that they “fight protectionism together,” according to local reports Tuesday, as both countries face potentially disastrous US tariffs.
“I don’t know what the equivalent in Japanese for ‘chutzpah’* is, but I think the Japanese bureaucrats will snicker a bit to themselves,” says David Boling, Eurasia Group’s director for Japan and Asian trade. “China has a tendency when relations with the US are not going well to suddenly become much more positive in their approach to Japan.”
China is Japan’s largest trading partner but a highly distrusted neighbor from a national security perspective. Japan launched trade talks with the United States last week, and Boling says Tokyo is determined to strike a deal.
“The United States is just too important as an ally and trading partner, and even if talks break down, they’re not going to look to China first,” he says.
What’s more, Ishiba faces a crucial election in the upper house of the Diet, Japan's legislature, in July, right around when the US tariff pause is due to expire. With his political life on the line, we’re watching for an agreement in principle to be sealed with the US soon.
*Chutzpah is 厚かましさ (astukamashi-sa), if you were curious.
Burkina Faso’s junta leader Captain Ibrahim Traore attends the first ordinary summit of heads of state and governments of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) in Niamey, Niger, on July 6, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Burkina Faso foils coup effort, Trump dents democracy rating, Spain to hit defense-spending target, Musk to reduce his DOGE hours, Migrants arrested while fleeing US, Japan rids foreign debt, Tourists killed in Kashmir
40%: Burkina Faso’s ruling military recently foiled an attempted coup aimed at removing junta leader Cap. Ibrahim Traoré, the country’s security minister said on Monday. The Sahel nation has had to deal with widespread insurgency in recent years, with rebel jihadist groups reportedly controlling around 40% of the country’s land mass.
55: US President Donald Trump made a dent in American democracy almost as soon as he won the 2024 election, according to a survey of 520 political experts. The Bright Line Watch benchmark gave US democracy a rating of 55 in February, down 12 points from where it was on the day of Trump’s election victory and 14 points from where it was in October 2024. It’s the country’s fastest drop since the survey began in 2017.
2%: Our globally minded readers will immediately recognize this figure as the proportion of gross domestic product that NATO member nations are encouraged to spend on defense. Under pressure from the Trump administration and its European allies to expand its military, Spain said Tuesday that it will finally hit that figure again this year, after falling short for over 30 years.
130: Elon Musk is DOGE-ing himself. The Tesla CEO says he will cut back his role in the government after his electric vehicle company reported a massive profit drop. Musk says he will spend just one to two days each week on DOGE following accusations that he has let his focus on Tesla slip. Regardless, temporary government employees like Musk are normally limited to working 130 days a year, which would expire at the end of May.
8: So much for the Great Escape: From January through April, US authorities arrested eight undocumented Dominican migrants in Puerto Rico who were trying to return to their home country. The arrests raise questions over the Trump administration’s stated goal of encouraging undocumented migrants to leave of their own accord.
$20 billion: Trump’s tariffs have Tokyo in a selling mood. Japanese investors said sayonara to more than $20 billion of foreign debt early this month. The selloff shows how Wall Street jitters can ripple across the Pacific. It’s not clear which foreign debt Japanese investors unloaded, though they are the largest holders of US Treasuries of any country worldwide, so their investment choices are observed hawkishly.
26: Outrage is rising after gunmen killed 26 tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir’s Pahalgam on Tuesday. Several other victims remain critically injured. The Resistance Front – believed to be an offshoot of Pakistan-based terrorist group Lashkar-e-Taiba – has claimed responsibility.