Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Graphic Truth: Japan’s Rice Price Explosion
One of the major factors that pushed Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba to resign over the weekend was inflation. Although Japan’s headline figure of 3% may not seem all that high, the country had grown accustomed to rates at or below 1% between 2012 and 2022. What’s more, the headline figure masks soaring prices for a major staple Japanese food: rice. The cause? Extreme heat in 2023 and an earthquake last year spurred major supply shortages. Here’s a fine-grain look at rice price trends over the past year.
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba adjusts his glasses during a press conference as he announces his resignation, in Tokyo, Japan, on September 7, 2025.
Who will be Japan’s next leader?
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s resignation announcement on Sunday triggered the country’s second leadership battle in less than a year, plunging his center-right Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) deeper into a political crisis.
The party has held power for most of the last 70 years, but recently lost majorities in both houses of the National Diet and suffered a historic defeat in Tokyo’s city council elections. This string of defeats, combined with a stagnant economy and higher inflation, spelt the end for Ishiba.
The LDP must now select a new party leader, who is likely to replace Ishiba as prime minister. That process is likely to unfold in October, though it could come sooner given the urgency of the situation.
To better understand how the leader of Japan, the world’s fourth largest economy, got into this mess after less than a year in power, and who is most likely to replace him, GZERO spoke to one of the top experts on Japanese politics: Eurasia Group’s Japan Director David Boling.
GZERO: Why did Ishiba resign?
Boling: “Three strikes, you’re out,” is probably the most compelling argument against Ishiba. He basically was the leader of the party, and they had three elections where they lost. After that upper house election in July, there was a pretty hard push by a lot of conservatives to call for a special election. Ishiba has a three-year term that started last September, when he was elected. It is unprecedented for the LDP to call for basically a midterm intraparty election. Ishiba was able to stall that for a while, but the momentum started to come back strong.
Last week, they had set up a vote on Monday for whether to have a leadership election, and Ishiba saw the writing on the wall over the weekend. Instead of seeing how this special election would turn out, he could tell that he didn’t have the votes.
Who are the favorites to replace him, and what are their stances?
The two favorites to replace him are well known – they came in right behind Ishiba in the party leadership vote last September.
The person who finished second behind Ishiba was Sanae Takaichi. She is conservative, nationalistic, and a proponent of “Abenomics,” which is loose monetary and fiscal policy. But she’s probably best known for her nationalistic views. She’s a hawk. [She would also be Japan’s first female prime minister.] The person who placed third is Shinjiro Koizumi, a well known name in Japan because his father was prime minister. He’s young, charismatic, and popular. Since they are both members of the LDP, both candidates are broadly pro-US alliance, and right of center. I would put Koizumi as more moderate, and Takaichi as more conservative.
Last thing: what’s the biggest thing to watch out for going forward, once the new leader is determined?
Last October, the LDP and its junior coalition partner Komeito lost their lower house majority, so they now have to work with one of the opposition parties to have enough votes to elect the new LDP leader as prime minister again. I think that it is very likely that whoever is the LDP president will become the next Japanese prime minister, but there will have to be some sort of deal worked out with the opposition parties to have enough votes to approve that person as the next prime minister. The LDP-Komeito coalition may have to make concessions on items for the annual budget, agreeing to spending or taxing provisions favored by the opposition. So that will be the next big watch point.
Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner arrives at 10 Downing Street for a weekly Cabinet meeting in London, United Kingdom, on Sept. 2, 2025.
Hard Numbers: UK’s deputy PM resigns, US jobs market stagnates, Another earthquake hits Afghanistan, & More
£40,000: Deputy UK Prime Minister Angela Rayner has resigned from her role after it emerged that she legally avoided £40,000 ($54,000) in stamp duty – the tax incurred on buying a house – when she purchased a second home. Rayner also quit her roles as housing secretary and deputy Labour Party leader, which has prompted a major reshuffle: Foreign Secretary David Lammy replaces Rayner as deputy PM, and also becomes justice secretary. Home Secretary Yvette Cooper replaces Lammy at the helm of the Foreign Office.
22,000: The US economy added just 22,000 jobs in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Further, the rise in nonfarm payroll employment for June and July combined was revised down 21,000. The stagnant labor market will put extra pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at a faster pace.
3: A 6.2-magnitude earthquake struck southeastern Afghanistan Thursday, the third quake to hit the country this week. At least 2,205 people have now died as a result. Rescue efforts remain hampered by landslides and rough terrain, with helicopters delivering aid. The Taliban has appealed for international aid as aftershocks continue to rattle the quake-prone region.
102: At 102, Kokichi Akuzawa became the oldest person to summit Mount Fuji, climbing with family and friends. Akuzawa broke his own record, having set the last one when he scaled Fuji at 96.
370: Rescue workers have now recovered 370 bodies from a remote mountain village in Darfur, per a local leader, after landslides battered this area of western Sudan on Sunday. Meanwhile, aid workers are using donkeys to deliver aid to those who are still living. Heavy rains and floods continue to batter the area.Crowds gather in Times Square to celebrate the surrender of Japan, V-J Day, New York City, New York, USA, U.S. Army Signal Corps, August 15, 1945
Hard Numbers: 80th anniversary of V-J day, Trump wants a stake in Intel, ICE eyes detention expansion, South Korean producers win “Baby Shark” lawsuit
80: Today marks the 80th anniversary of Victory over Japan Day, or “V-J Day”, the day that Imperial Japan surrendered to the Allied forces, bringing an end to World War Two. We’ve previously covered how Japan and the US’ relationship have since evolved.
7%: Intel shares rose by 7% on Thursday after reports emerged that the White House was considering purchasing an ownership stake in the US-based chipmaker. The reports highlight Trump’s increasing willingness to intervene in private chip companies, with Nvidia and AMD agreeing to hand the White House 15% of their Chinese revenues earlier this week.
107,000: US President Donald Trump has reportedly ordered a major expansion of ICE’s detention facilities – raising the number of beds by over 41,000 to 107,000. While the Department of Homeland Security has not confirmed details, the project is being funded by Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill passed in congress last month.
6: Fear not, the hit children’s song “Baby Shark” is here to stay. After a grueling six-year legal battle, South Korea’s Supreme Court ruled against US composer Jonathan Wright, who filed a lawsuit accusing the producers of the song of plagiarism. You can listen to Wright’s version here and decide for yourself.
US President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba participate in a news conference at the White House in Washington, D.C., USA, on February 7, 2025.
Enemies to allies: The US and Japan 80 years after Hiroshima
Eighty years ago this week, the US dropped atomic bombs on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, killing more than 200,000 people, mostly civilians. It was the first and, so far, only use of nuclear weapons in war.
In Japan, remembrance ceremonies honor the victims and amplify the calls for peace from the hibakusha, the Japanese term for the 100,000 remaining survivors of the attacks.
In the US, by contrast, there is no official federal government commemoration. Former President Barack Obama remains the only sitting US leader to visit the Hiroshima Peace Memorial Ceremony. President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance declined invitations to attend this year’s ceremony. The US public has mixed views on the bombings – 35% of Americans believe they were justified in order to bring a swift end to the Pacific phase of World War II, 31% say they were not, and the rest are unsure.
But after the war, the US and Japan moved, slowly and often uneasily, towards one of the strongest bilateral partnerships in the world. After Japan’s surrender in 1945, the US occupied the country, rewriting its constitution, demilitarizing its forces, and rebuilding its economy to keep it from falling under Soviet influence. The Cold War transformed former enemies into partners: Japan hosted US military bases, while Washington extended security guarantees under the 1951 US-Japan Security Treaty.
In recent years, that alliance has taken on renewed urgency. Faced with the increasing assertiveness of its longtime regional rival China, Tokyo has begun to edge away from strict pacifism toward what Eurasia Group’s Japan Director David Boling calls “a more realistic approach to defense.” In 2022, Japan announced a $287.1 billion re-militarization strategy over five years, doubling its defence budget to about 2% of GDP. In 2025, it passed a record-breaking $55 billion defense budget, and aims to eventually double its annual military spending, which would make it the world’s third biggest military spender after the United States and China.
For the US, Japan is not just a crucial counterweight to Beijing’s military ambitions, says Boling, it is an “unsinkable aircraft carrier” in the Pacific and a trusted diplomatic bridge to Southeast Asia, where many countries are wary of being forced to choose sides and are more receptive to messaging from Tokyo than Washington.
And yet there are also fresh tensions in the relationship, as Trump has questioned the value of a US-Japan alliance in which the US is the overwhelming military power, and has targeted Japan with higher tariffs in order to rebalance their trade relationship.
Still, as Boling points out, divergences of opinion are only likely to go so far while both countries share a common concern:
“If the United States is going to have a successful approach to China on national security and on trade,” he says, “it needs Japan in its corner.”
FFM Mogami at the Yokosuka Naval Base on April 8, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Japan wins huge Oz carrier contract, Migrant boat sinks off Yemen, US to require bonds from visa-seekers, Taiwan arrests chip snoops
$6.5 billion: Japan won a $6.5 billion defense contract to build 11 new warships for Australia’s navy on Tuesday. The deal comes as Australia undertakes a major defense overhaul in order to counter China’s expanding presence in the Indo-Pacific.
68: At least 68 African migrants have died after a boat capsized off the coast of Yemen on Sunday. Yemen is a major transit route for migrants from the Horn of Africa – which includes Ethiopia, Somalia, Djibouti, and Eritrea – who go to the Gulf monarchies in search of work. The overall death toll is feared to be greater than 140.
15,000: The US is planning to require some visa applicants to pay bonds of up to $15,000, as President Donald Trump continues his crackdown on immigration. The State Department said the measure will target countries whose citizens overstay their visas most often: looking at you, Colombia, Mexico, Canada, Haiti, Venezuela, and Spain.
6: Taiwanese authorities have arrested six people suspected of stealing trade secrets from TSMC, the world’s most advanced semiconductor manufacturer. While their nationalities haven’t been made public yet, China’s Huawei and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) and the US’s Intel trail far behind TSMC, which supplies chips to Nvidia and Apple.
Trump pulls US out of UNESCO, again
In this episode of World in :60, Ian Bremmer breaks down Zelensky gutting anti-corruption agencies in Ukraine, the rise of Japan's 'Japanese First' Party, and Trump's UNESCO exit.
Is Zelensky putting EU support at risk by gutting Ukraine’s anti-corruption agencies? Not really, says Ian Bremmer: “EU support is considered increasingly existential given what is at risk with the fight agains Russia.”
In Japan, a rising nationalist party wants nuclear weapons and fewer immigrants. “They’re not MAGA, but they are anti-establishment.”
And Trump exits UNESCO, again. “It’s not just about UNESCO. It’s about whether the US is seen as reliable anymore.”
Graphic Truth: Japan’s ruling coalition loses majority
Japan’s ruling coalition lost control of the upper house in Sunday’s election, further weakening Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba amid growing domestic pressure and international challenges. To retain its majority, the Liberal Democratic Party and its partner Komeito needed to win 50 seats – they got only 47. This follows the LDP’s worst electoral showing in 15 years in last fall’s Lower House election. Rising inflation and opposition calls for tax cuts resonated with voters, while the far-right Sanseito party gained ground with a nationalist, anti-immigration platform. Despite the setback, Ishiba vowed to stay on, stressing the importance of upcoming US trade talks as Japan faces an August tariff deadline. For a refresher on why Shigeru was in such trouble to begin with, see here.