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U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump smiles during the Suffolk County Republican Committee fundraising reception in Patchogue, New York April 14, 2016.
Hard Numbers: Embarrassing politicians, European antisemitism, Lasers vs. drones, Inflationary surprise, Bear attacks, Rouen spire blaze
63: A new poll from Pew Research finds that 63% of voters describe bothJoeBiden and DonaldTrump as “embarrassing.” Some supporters – 37% of Biden supporters and 33% of Trump supporters – say their own candidate is embarrassing.
75: A new survey from the EU’s Fundamental Rights Agency has found a surge in antisemitism in Europe. In particular,75% of the Jewish Europeans interviewed said they felt they were held responsible for the Israeli government’s actions in Gaza because they are Jewish.
1.50: South Korea’s government announced Thursday it will deploy a laser weapons system to intercept North Korean drones, which have created recent headaches for the country’s security. The lasers in question will reportedly cost about$1.50 per shot.
3: US inflation in June eased more than economists expected, extending a recent slowdown in price increases and feeding speculation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this fall. The consumer-price index rose3% year on year.
219: The first four months of this year saw a record219 bear attacks in Japan. Six of them were fatal. In response, Japan’s government reportedly plans to revise poaching laws to lift some restrictions that ban hunters from shooting bears.
70: The spire of a famous Gothic cathedral in the French city of Rouen caught fire on Thursday. Thankfully, about70 firefighters were able to contain the blaze. This spire appeared in a number of paintings by impressionist Claude Monet, and between 1876 and 1880 the church was the world’s tallest building.
China’s foreign ministry on Thursday warned NATO not to bring “chaos” into Asia and accused the alliance of seeking security at the expense of other countries after it labeled Beijing a “decisive enabler” of Russia’s war on Ukraine.
China tells NATO to butt out
China’s foreign ministry on Thursday warned NATO not to bring “chaos” into Asia and accused the alliance of seeking security at the expense of other countries after it labeled Beijing a “decisive enabler” of Russia’s war on Ukraine. The foreign ministry’s comments come amid increasing cooperation between NATO and US allies in the Pacific, particularly Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines.
Washington and its allies accuse China of helping Russia skirt arms controls by shipping so-called “dual use” goods that can be applied in both civilian and military contexts. In turn, China gets access to heavily discounted Russian oil and gas — a desirable asset at any time, but advantageous for China’s economy at a moment when it appears particularly shaky.
At home, however, Beijing has signaled not to expect “strong medicine” to boost the economy at next week’s upcoming Third Party Plenum, scheduled for July 15-18 behind closed doors.
These meetings are closely watched because past leaders have used them to deliver big news. Deng Xiaoping announced the earth-shaking “Opening and Reform” policy, for example, at the 1978 session.
Xi Jinping isn’t expected to announce any major policy shifts, according to experts at Eurasia Group. So we’ll be watching for language intended to boost consumer confidence battered by the roiling debt crisis, but little by way of decisive policy.Japan's Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa and Philippine's Defence Minister Gilberto Teodoro shake hands after signing the reciprocal access agreement, at the Malacanang Palace in Manila, Philippines, July 8, 2024.
Can Japan afford to muscle up?
Japan and the Philippines signed a new defense pact on Monday, allowing the mutual deployment of forces to each other’s territory for training – part of a larger mutual effort to stave off China. But while Tokyo’s diplomats are sealing deals with much-needed allies, its defense officials are stressing that a weak yen threatens to eat up their budgets.
Before the Filipino deal, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida reached similar defense agreements with Australia and the UK, and he has established historically warmer ties with South Korea, improving political and military cooperation. He is also trying to double defense spending by 2027, which would make Japan the world’s third-largest military spender. So why is Tokyo slashing orders for new airplanes and warning of more cuts?
A group of people thought to be migrants arrive in Dungeness, Kent, after being rescued in the Channel by the RNLI following following a small boat incident.
Hard Numbers: UK vote may scrap Rwanda plan, Orban visits Ukraine, India mulls marital rape, Bannon reports for prison, Beryl turns deadly, Fuji for a price
320 million: If, as widely expected, the Labour Party wins Thursday’s national elections in the UK and scraps the outgoing government’s controversial plan to send asylum-seekers to Rwanda, the British government will have spent more than £320 million that can’t be recovered. Labour has pledged instead to spend state funds to build a new Border Security Command that dismantles the people-smuggling gangs that help asylum-seekers cross the English Channel in small boats.
1:Viktor Orbán, Hungary’s prime minister and Europe’s most pro-Russian leader, made an unexpected visit to Kyiv for talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. This marks Orbán’s first trip to Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion began. The visit coincides with Hungary assuming the rotating EU presidency, which happened despite concerns from other European politicians over Hungary’s frequent clashes with Brussels. Discussions are expected to focus on peace possibilities and bilateral relations between Hungary and Ukraine.
36: India’s supreme court has promised to rule later this month on whether India’s much-anticipated new penal code will make it acrime for a man to rape his wife. For now, India is one of the world’s 36 countries that have not criminalized marital rape.
4: Former Donald Trump advisor Steve Bannon reported to prison on Monday. He’ll now serve afour-month sentence for contempt of Congress after defying a subpoena from the House committee that investigated the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol. Bannon, who has called himself a “political prisoner,” remains influential with pro-Trump conservatives.
5: Hurricane Beryl, a Category 5 storm with sustained winds of 165 mph, caused widespread destruction across the southeast Caribbean on Monday, killing at least two people. Beryl is the first Atlantic hurricane of the season.
12: Early Monday, Japan’s park rangers began a crackdown on the surge of visitors hoping to walk up the iconic Mount Fuji. Climbers will now have to pay 2,000 yen (about $12) to hit the trails, and the number of hikers will be limited to 4,000 a day to limit the overcrowding and litter that have drawn more complaints in recent years.
SUQIAN, CHINA - MARCH 4, 2024 - Illustration Mistral AI, March 4, 2024, Suqian, Jiangsu Province, China.
Hard Numbers: Mistral gets money, Amazon’s investments, Disco time!, Wary of AI news
6 billion: Europe has just one major player in the generative AI space: Mistral. The French startup raised a new $640 million funding round last week that boosts its overall value to $6 billion. While OpenAI, Anthropic, and other startups have largely proprietary or closed-source models, Mistral has focused on open-source models, marking a more open approach that might suit regulators in Brussels better.
230 million: On Thursday,Amazon pledged $230 million to invest in generative AI startups. That number includes $80 million for its second Amazon Web Services Generative AI Accelerator program, designed to incentivise AI startups to use Amazon’s cloud services.
5: Disco Corp., a Japanese semiconductor company, has seen its stock quintuple since 2022 on increased demand for chip packaging services. The profit margins are thinner for packaging compared with other facets of the chip industry, but increasingly in demand with ever-shrinking chip sizes.
52: Roughly half of Americans are okay with news written by AI. Some 52% of US respondents told surveyors at the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism that they’re uncomfortable with news largely written by AI. Even more respondents felt uncomfortable in the UK, with 63% shaking their heads at AI-written news. Trust in the media is at historic lows in the US, and ambivalence to whether it’s written by humans or machines may be the clearest sign yet.PA via Reuters The Princess of Wales attends Trooping the Colour, London.
Hard Numbers: Kate steps out, Wash your hands in Tokyo, Hajj heat proves deadly, Sudan’s towns being burned, LA wildfire scorches acres
75: King Charles III celebrated his 75th birthday (actually Nov. 14) with the traditional “Trooping of the Colours” ceremony and birthday parade on Saturday — but it was Kate Middleton, the Princess of Wales, who stole the show with her first public appearance in months. Both Kate and Charles have been dealing with cancer diagnoses, and the princess recently said she expects a few more months of treatment.
977: Japanese health authorities are raising the alarm over an alarming spike in patients with a “flesh-eating bacteria” that can kill within 48 hours if left untreated, with 977 cases reported between January and June. That’s as many as were reported in all of 2023, and with a mortality rate of around 30%, doctors are urging people to wash their hands carefully as the best first line of defense.
14: At least 14 Jordanian pilgrims have perished during the Hajj in Saudi Arabia, and at least another 17 are missing as an intense heatwave has made the annual religious event riskier than usual. Temperatures in Mecca are expected to reach 116 degrees Fahrenheit (47 C) on Monday.
50: New analysis by the Centre for Information Resilience of NASA satellite images shows that the parties in Sudan’s ongoing civil war have deliberately burned at least 50 villages, and possibly as many as 235, largely in the Darfur region. The Rapid Support Forces have been systematically targeting Black ethnicities in the region, particularly the Masalit people, and setting fire to villages as part of a strategy of ethnic cleansing.
10,000: Speaking of fires, a wildfire has blazed over 10,000 acres near Los Angeles, forcing the evacuation of 1,200 people from the Hungry Valley recreation area. The inferno was not contained at the time of writing, and authorities say hot, dry winds are hampering efforts to combat it.Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida arrives to attend the trilateral summit with his South Korean and Chinese counterparts in Seoul, South Korea.
China, Japan, and South Korea talk trade at trilateral summit
“The three nations agreed to expand practical cooperation in a way their people can feel its benefits,” Yoon said during a joint news conference, announcing 2025 and 2026 as the “years of cultural exchanges” among the three countries.
China typically sends its premier, not the president, to these meetings, which dictates a focus on economic rather than security issues, but the elephants were still in the room. Mere hours before the summit started, North Korea announced a plan to put a second spy satellite in orbit, drawing condemnation from Japan and South Korea. After the meeting, Seoul conducted an airstrike drill as a warning to Pyongyang.
During the talks, Li expressed uneasiness about Japan and South Korea’s expanding security cooperation with the United States, while Kishida cautioned Li about China’s belligerence in the South China Sea. According to David Boling, a Eurasia Group analyst, “China is Japan’s biggest security threat, yet China is also Japan’s biggest trading partner. Tokyo is working mightily to balance those competing priorities.”
But that won’t be easy. In the view of Jeremy Chan, an East Asia analyst with Eurasia Group Japan, “Common economic interests remain the ballast that holds trilateral cooperation together, but growing misalignment over regional security related to North Korea, Taiwan, and the South China Sea – as well as rising US-China competition – will prevent closer economic cooperation among the three countries.”
Meanwhile, just across the East China Sea, a US congressional delegation met Taiwan's new President Lai Ching-te on Monday, reaffirming Washington’s “strong support of this beautiful island.”Michael McCaul, head of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, condemned China's recent military drills and pledged to expedite Taiwan's delayed US weapons purchases, while China’s Foreign Ministry said it “firmly opposed” the visit and had lodged stern representations with Washington.
We’ll be watching to see whether the visit speeds those weapons systems to their destination – or provokes more military maneuvers from Beijing.
Sailboat statue La Vela, on the shoreline at Stresa, Lake Maggiore, Italian Lakes, Piedmont, Italy
Top question for G7: How to Trump-proof Ukraine aid
Ahead of this week’s G7 Finance Ministers’ Meeting in Stresa, Italy, leaders might be feeling a little stress-a’d themselves. With the US election still anyone’s game, the world’s great democracies are increasingly concerned a victory for Donald Trump could severely impact, or even cut off, aid to Ukraine.
With that in mind, they’ll be discussing plans to pass along the interest earned on some $350 billion in frozen Russian assets to fund Kyiv’s war effort — basically making Russia pay to fight itself. If all goes well this week, US officials say some $50 billion could be ready to disburse as soon as this summer. As the assets earn more interest, Ukraine gets more money, and no fiddling with Congress is needed. The European Union is already using a similar set up to fund weapons purchases for Ukraine.
If the details can be hammered out before the G7 Leaders’ Summit next month and implemented before the US election, Trump winning wouldn’t change the payouts to Ukraine. But there’s work to be done: The US, UK, and Canada are reportedly more gung-ho, while Japan, Germany, France, and Italy are still concerned about the long-term precedents their actions could set, possibly driving money from places like China and the Persian Gulf away.