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Iran's retaliation shows strategic weakness
In his latest Quick Take, Ian Bremmer unpacks Iran’s carefully calibrated retaliation against the United States after a major American strike on its nuclear program. Tehran launched missiles at a massive US base in Qatar, but warned Washington ahead of time, resulting in no casualties.
“It shows incredible weakness on the part of the Iranian government,” Ian notes, emphasizing the Islamic Republic’s desire to avoid provoking further US escalation.
Ian calls the moment “the biggest foreign policy win for President Trump” so far in his second term, as Iran appears increasingly isolated and risk averse. He also highlights how the regime's top leadership is in hiding, further hampering its ability to coordinate or negotiate.
While the immediate threat of escalation has eased, Ian still warns that “rogue actors” within Iran’s military still pose a risk. For now, though, oil prices are down and the region is holding its breath.
Russian President Vladimir Putin shakes hands with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi during a meeting at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, on June 23, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Iran meets with Putin, NATO gathers at the Hague, Venezuela targets black markets
US bombing of Iran creates Russian conundrum
Russian President Vladimir Putin welcomed Iran’s foreign minister on Monday, offering rhetorical support for Tehran – but it’s unclear what more the Kremlin is willing to do for its last major Middle Eastern ally right now. Putin has cultivated good ties with Iran, but also with Israel. At the same time, with Washington focused on Iran, Russia continued to hammer Kyiv with airstrikes over the weekend. Just days ago, Putin openly declared that the “whole of Ukraine is ours” – does he think the end goal is in sight?
NATO allies meet for an uncomfortable summit
Defense expenditure will be the top agenda item when leaders of 32 countries – all from Europe and North America – gather at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization summit tomorrow in the Hague, Netherlands. Ahead of the gathering, the group agreed to increase its defense-spending target from 2% to 5% of GDP, but granted an exception to Spain due to the prime minister’s political problems at home. Questions about the strength of the alliance are swirling: US President Donald Trump has sparred with his NATO allies for years now, and there’s no sign that the tensions will subside – his decision to bomb Iran undercut European efforts to foster a truce in the Middle East.
Venezuela cracks down on black markets – could it backfire?
The Venezuelan government has arrested dozens of people, including former top officials, in a crackdown on the country’s sprawling black market for dollars. Authorities blame off-the-books dollar traders for destabilizing the exchange rate, but experts say that the government’s economic mismanagement, coupled with US sanctions, means that black markets are the only way to satisfy popular demand for greenbacks. Stamping out those channels could, they warn, make things worse. Venezuela’s inflation rate has already surged past 200% this year.
US enters war with Iran: What comes next?
In his latest Quick Take, Ian Bremmer breaks down the US decision to formally join Israel in military strikes against Iran, marking a major escalation in the Middle East.
“The United States has formally entered the war in Iran,” Ian says, following a week of rising tensions and failed negotiations.
American forces launched targeted strikes on Iran’s underground Fordow nuclear facility and two other sites, a move Ian calls a “TikTok-style war,” quick, explosive, aimed at avoiding a long-term ground conflict, and something “Trump’s base can certainly get behind.”
Trump, who has positioned himself as a peace-focused president, “is now 0-3 on his big efforts at negotiations,” Ian notes, referencing failed talks with Russia, Israel, and now Iran.
Now the world waits to see how Iran responds. So far, the regime has shown restraint, but with its leadership weakened, deterrents degraded, and the threat of further strikes looming, retaliation is likely. Whether through proxy attacks or asymmetric escalation, Ian says Iran is now “more likely to act unhinged and less rational than what we’ve seen so far.”
A miniature statue of US President Donald Trump stands next to a model bunker-buster bomb, with the Iranian national flag in the background, in Kananaskis, Alberta, Canada, on June 19, 2025.
What We’re Watching: US’s Iran decision postponed, Court OK’s Trump’s use of the national guard in LA, Rwanda detains top opposition leader
Trump gives himself, and Iran, two weeks
US President Donald Trump said Thursday that he will decide whether to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities “in the next two weeks,” a move that re-opens the door to negotiations, but also gives the US more time to position military forces for an operation (and the expected retaliation). Speaking of negotiations, European leaders were reportedly set to meet with Iranian officials in Geneva today to explore a diplomatic solution to the crisis. Meanwhile the war itself rages on: Tehran struck a hospital in Be’er Sheva in southern Israel on Thursday, while Israeli forces bombed the unfinished nuclear power plant at Arak and struck industrial targets in Northern Iran. And Tehran is now rushing to export as much oil as possible as fears grow that the war could result in closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s biggest oil customer? China.
Court clears Trump’s control of California National Guard
A federal appeals court ruled Thursday that Trump acted legally when he took control of the California National Guard despite objections from the state’s governor. The decision overturns a lower court ruling from last week. Trump “federalized” the National Guard to quell protests and riots against his hardline immigration enforcement. The LA unrest has calmed – Mayor Karen Bass rescinded a curfew on Tuesday – but the court’s ruling sets a precedent Trump can point to in future protests against immigration or other aspects of federal policy.
Rwanda’s opposition leader arrested
Rwandan authorities arrested prominent opposition leader Victoire Ingabire on Thursday, alleging that she created a criminal organization and incited public unrest. Lawyers for Ingabire, who was jailed from 2012 to 2018, say the move is politically motivated. President Paul Kagame, who has ruled Rwanda for three decades since the 1994 Genocide, has won plaudits for resurrecting the economy and keeping the peace. But he brooks no dissent – last year he won the presidential election with 99% of the vote.
US President Donald Trump gestures after returning early from the G7 Leaders’ Summit in Canada, at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, USA, on June 17, 2025.
Will the US play a Trump card in Iran?
As he left the G7 summit early on Monday, US President Donald Trump declared that he wants to bring a “real end” to the Israel-Iran conflict, and urged citizens of Tehran to evacuate. Washington also moved to bolster its military options in the Middle East.
What is Trump after? Speculation continues to swirl about whether the US will risk getting involved more directly in the destruction of Iran’s nuclear facilities, or whether Trump is using Israel’s current pummeling of the Islamic Republic as leverage for a wider negotiated settlement to the nuclear issue and the Iran-Israel conflict. The president emphasized that he doesn’t seek a mere ceasefire, but rather something “much bigger.” (For more on Trump’s options, see here.)
Meanwhile in Tehran: Iran, suffering from Israel’s aerial bombardment, reportedly signaled that it wants to return to the negotiating table, but remained unwilling to make new concessions.Palestinians wounded in an Israeli strike near a humanitarian aid distribution centre are rushed to Nasser Hospital in Khan Yunis.
HARD NUMBERS: Gaza aid point killings rise, US states approve opioid settlement, and more
59: Israeli forces on Tuesday killed at least 59 Palestinians trying to access a food and aid distribution point in Gaza. This marks the deadliest day in a recent wave of shootings near the distribution points. More than 300 Palestinians have been killed in similar incidents since a private group backed by Israel and the US, called the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, launched aid distribution sites in Gaza.
7.4 billion: All 50 US states approved a $7.4 billion settlement with Purdue over the pharma giant’s role in the opioid crisis. $6.5 billion of that will come from the owners of Purdue, the Sackler family. Unlike past opioid settlements, this one allows individuals to keep suing the Sacklers in civil court for another 15 years.
70,000: Nearly 70,000 people have already applied for the “Trump Card,” a VIP visa program that offers US residency to foreigners willing to cough up $5 million for the privilege. The program was officially launched last week.
6: Recent clashes between police and supporters of former Bolivian president Evo Morales have left six people dead and hundreds injured, deepening a political crisis in the gas-rich Andean country ahead of this fall’s presidential election. The courts have banned Morales, who was ousted amid protests in 2019, from running for a fourth term.
Iran looks to negotiate ceasefire
As the Israel-Iran war intensifies, Iran is seeking an urgent ceasefire, facing overwhelming Israeli military air superiority.
"They have virtually no capacity to strike back,” says Ian Bremmer in today’s Quick Take. Iran has reportedly expended 20% of its ballistic missiles, with minimal damage inflicted, while Israel has crippled large parts of Iran’s military infrastructure and nuclear program.
The US also looms large, as Ian says, “Trump is basically saying, ‘We’re not entering the war, but we will if you don’t engage in negotiations.’” A US-backed strike on Iran’s Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant remains a real threat if talks stall.
Despite widespread global condemnation of Israeli strikes, even Iran’s allies like Russia are not stepping in militarily. “Regime survival is the priority now,” Ian warns, as internal dissent grows within Iran’s leadership. But with the risk of irrational escalation rising, Ian adds: “That’s the fog of war stuff … far more likely as this war is going on.”
Emergency personnel work at an impact site following a missile attack from Iran on Israel, in Tel Aviv, Israel, on June 16, 2025.
Iran-Israel battle escalates: What will Trump do?
The war between Israel and Iran continued to escalate over the weekend, with Israel hitting Iran’s energy facilities, while Tehran launched hundreds of missiles and drones at Tel Aviv and other metropolitan areas. Dozens of Israelis have been killed, while Iran has suffered over 200 fatalities.
What’s Israel’s goal here? Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants to destroy Iran’s nuclear programme – that much we know. One outside analyst suggested he wants something bigger than this, namely regime change. US President Donald Trump reportedly vetoed an Israeli plan to assassinate Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, highlighting Netanyahu’s aggressive posture.
What about Iran? Survival of the regime and the nuclear program are the goals. Tehran has limited capacity for counterstrikes – it only had 2,000 missiles capable of reaching Israel at the start of the war, per Israeli intelligence, and has already used hundreds of them. It doesn’t want to prompt the US to get involved – which may explain why it hasn’t closed the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil export chokepoint.
So what will the United States do? That’s the big question. Trump urged the two adversaries to make a deal in a social media post on Sunday. The US president’s online calls for peace haven’t always been heeded, though – looking at you, Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Assuming there’s no deal, the question becomes whether the US will help Israel to “finish the job” of destroying Iran’s nuclear facilities, which are buried deep underground. Most experts believe that only the US has the kind of bunker busting bombs that could penetrate deep enough to hit them.
Trump’s dilemma: He campaigned for president on a promise to end US involvement in foreign wars. Some hard-right elements of his own MAGA coalition oppose getting more involved. At the same time, a recent poll showed a slim majority of Americans, and a sizable majority of Republicans, support helping Israel to destroy Iran’s nuclear program. Trump must tread carefully: getting involved could risk a wider war, but staying on the sidelines could also spur Iran and Israel to continue escalation. Your call, Mr. President...