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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky meets with US Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine, on November 20, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Kyiv gets a nugget US peace plan, Election day in Guinea-Bissau, Two men from Queens meet at the White House
A nugget for Kyiv in the US plan for ending the war
The United States’ 28-point plan for ending the war in Ukraine appears to contain many items from Russia’s wish list, but it has emerged that it also has something for Kyiv: a security guarantee akin to NATO’s Article 5, which says that an attack on one member state is an attack on all. The US and its European allies would be part of this guarantee. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who faces domestic pressure over a corruption scandal, said on Thursday he’s willing to engage with the plan – although he did draft a statement with European leaders that disavowed parts of the proposal. The Kremlin said it hasn’t formally received the plan.
This West African incumbent may struggle to win reelection
Guinea-Bissau, a West African country of two million people that plays a central role in global cocaine trade, is holding the first round of its presidential election this Sunday. One-term incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embalo faces fierce competition from opposition leader Fernando Dias, who has centered his campaign on security and keeping soldiers out of politics – a rather tough challenge in a country that has had several military coups. The issue hasn’t gone away, either: there was reportedly a coup attempt this year. Most incumbents have won reelection on the continent this year, often amid reports of vote-rigging. Will it be different in Guinea-Bissau?
Two men from Queens walk into the Oval Office
New York City mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani is heading to the White House today to meet with Donald Trump, setting the tone for the relationship between the leader of the US’s biggest city and the US president – and there’s plenty that could go wrong. While they both hail from Queens, they represent movements on vastly different sides of the political spectrum. If things go south, Trump holds a more powerful hand: he has threatened to cut off funding for the city, flood its streets with ICE agents, and send in the national guard. While Mamdani may hesitate to provoke the president, he’ll lose his base if he’s seen as cowing to the president.
Argentine President Javier Milei speaks during the America Business Forum at the Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida, USA, on November 6, 2025.
Hard Numbers: US banks’ Argentina bailout plan falls through, Trump threatens Dem lawmakers, India is latest heist site, Saudi investment fund is stretched, & More
$20 billion: Argentine President Javier Milei had a fantastic midterm election last month, but the celebration might be coming to an abrupt end: A group of US banks shelved its $20-billion bailout plan for the South American nation, favoring instead a short-term loan package.
6: A group of six US Democratic lawmakers published a video telling military and intelligence officials that they must disobey illegal orders. The move irked President Donald Trump, who suggested that the move constituted, “SEDITIOUS BEHAVIOR, punishable by DEATH!”
70 million: The Louvre wasn’t the only site of a successful heist in broad daylight this fall, as a group of men posing as Indian central bank officials robbed a vehicle that held 70 million rupees ($800,000) in the southern state of Karnataka on Wednesday afternoon, per police. Law enforcement is still searching for the culprits.
41: Relentless rains and flooding in central Vietnam have killed at least 41 people, left nine missing, submerged over 52,000 homes, and cut power to half a million households. Hard-hit cities like Hoi An and Nha Trang face evacuations, landslides, and infrastructure collapse as typhoons grow increasingly frequent.
10.5: The former leader of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party was sentenced to ten-and-a-half years in prison this morning for accepting pro-Russian bribes. Nathan Gill was paid thousands of pounds to deliver TV interviews in favor of an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Reform UK has taken a more dovish position on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine than other parties in the United Kingdom.
$1 trillion: During his White House visit this week, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman pledged to increase his investment in US firms to nearly $1 trillion. There’s just one problem: Riyadh’s Public Investment Fund is running low on cash, according to a New York Times report.
Senior Nazi figures – Hermann Goering (1893-1946), Rudolf Hess (1894-1987), Joachim von Ribentrop (1893-1946), and Wilhelm Keitel (1882-1946) – stand trial in Nuremberg, Germany, 1945-46.
Hard Numbers: 80 years since the Nuremberg trials, Gazan ceasefire holds despite strikes, US and India inch closer to detente, Epstein files out before Christmas
80: Exactly 80 years ago today, the Nuremberg trials began. One scholar who knows a thing or two about the subject says it’s a reminder that international law – despite the punchline that it sometimes seems to be – can also make a real difference.
25: The Israeli military struck parts of Gaza yesterday, killing at least 25 people, per Hamas-linked local health officials. Israel said the attacks were in response to Hamas militants opening fire on its forces. There were another set of Israeli airstrikes on Wednesday that reportedly killed five. Both sides said they were still committed to keeping the ceasefire, though each side is struggling to move forward with the second phase of the ceasefire deal.
$93 million: In another sign that trade tensions between the world’s richest country and the world’s most populous country are easing, the US approved a $93-million deal to sell arms to India. The purchase also marks Delhi’s latest move away from buying Russian arms and toward purchasing US ones.
30: After US President Donald Trump signed the bill last night, the Justice Department has 30 days to release all of the Epstein files. It remains to be seen whether the release will be comprehensive – the department can withhold documents related to ongoing investigations – but Attorney General Pam Bondi has said that she would “encourage maximum transparency.”
Could Trump have handled the Epstein issue any worse?
Could Trump have handled the Epstein files any worse? Ian Bremmer says the president came close, first opposing the release, then reversing course once it was clear he was losing Republican support in Congress.
“When they’re running you out of town, get in front of the crowd and make it look like you’re leading the parade,” Ian says of Trump’s Sunday-night flip.
Now Republicans can safely vote to release what’s legally permissible, while Trump’s DOJ delays disclosures by launching new investigations into Democrats named in the files.
It caps a rough stretch for Trump: election losses in multiple states, slipping poll numbers, and public feuds with longtime allies. But when it comes to the Epstein documents themselves, Ian is clear: they will likely contain embarrassing details for Trump, but he does not expect they will show illegal involvement, or the Biden administration would have already acted.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman reacts next to US President Donald Trump during the Saudi-U.S. Investment Forum, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on May 13, 2025.
The Saudi crown prince returns to Washington
For the first time in seven years, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman is returning to Washington, DC, this week. While crude oil has traditionally pulled the two countries close together, it is now the great power-chess game between the US and China that is making them join forces.
MBS, as the de-facto Saudi leader is known, and US President Donald Trump have much to discuss when it comes to peace in the Middle East. The chances of Saudi Arabia recognizing Israel by joining the Abraham Accords are slim. Nonetheless, defense agreements will be on the table, as Saudi Arabia seeks to bolster its protections in what has been a tumultuous year in the region.
The US-Saudi relationship has come full circle since the crown prince’s last visit in 2018. Since then, there was the killing of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi – reportedly sanctioned by the crown prince – at a Saudi consulate in Turkey, which created major tensions. Those were exacerbated after Riyadh got upset with Washington when it refused to respond to the 2019 Houthi attack on Saudi oil facilities. Then, during the 2020 campaign, Joe Biden suggested Saudi Arabia should be a “pariah.” Biden then sought to ease tensions in 2022, as he wanted Riyadh to pump more oil to alleviate high inflation rates. And now the AI race between the US and China has pushed Riyadh and Washington closer together.
“[Khashoggi’s death] hung like a pall over MBS reputation in the United States,” Hussein Ibish, a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Initiative in Washington, told GZERO. “Time has worn away the sting a little bit.”
The Middle East has also changed dramatically over the past seven years. Israel was locked in a brutal war with Hamas for the past two years, with a fragile ceasefire keeping the peace for now. More Arab nations are concerned about the conflict spilling over, too, especially after Israel bombed Qatar in a failed bid to kill Hamas leaders. Meanwhile, the influence of Saudi’s top enemy, Iran, has diminished, as its proxies in the region – the Assad regime in Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Hamas in Gaza – have all been hobbled or even removed.
“Iran is no longer the strategic threat that it was seven years ago,” Ibish said. “[But] there is still this need on the part of Saudi Arabia for American security guarantees.”
So what will Trump and bin Salman discuss? First and foremost for the crown prince will be defense. There are two aspects to this: firstly, Saudi wants a defense agreement akin to what the US signed with Qatar, ensuring that the US will defend the Gulf state in case of attack. Secondly, the Saudis want to buy F-35 planes from the US – Israel is the only Middle East country that has successfully negotiated and executed a purchase agreement of F-35s.
“The US public and US government and Trump have been a little bit more critical of Israel,” Alia Awadallah, who was a Pentagon official during Biden’s term in office, told GZERO, suggesting that the US may be willing to sell to a country other than Israel. “[Saudi Arabia] will be trying to assess whether it’s actually realistic to get that type of sale through both the White House, but also through Congress, which would have to approve it.”
The US is sure to bring up something that has layed tantalizingly out of reach: the Abraham Accords. Trump is reportedly still pressing MBS to recognize Israel and join the Accords, arguing that the peace he successfully brokered in Gaza should be enough to prompt Riyadh to do so. But the crown prince has repeatedly said that he wouldn’t do this until Israel recognizes a Palestinian state, so the chances of him signing the accords on this trip are close to null.
“At a minimum, this requires phase two of the Gaza ceasefire being implemented, and Israeli assurances regarding the Palestinian right of self determination,” said Eurasia Group’s Middle East Director Firas Maksad. “And we’re not there yet.”
If there’s no agreement on the Accords, there’s likely to be more on artificial intelligence. It is this area – rather than oil – that is pushing the two countries closer together, per Maksad. Trump’s visit to Riyadh in May was all about AI, with Saudi firms pledging billions of dollars in investments. In return, Riyadh wants access to items like Nvidia’s AI chips for its data centers. Meanwhile the US wants to see those incoming investments, while ensuring that Saudi secures rights to critical minerals in Africa, grants US access to them, and blocks China from getting them. This trip will be a chance to firm up these AI ties.
“Although the headlines continue to be animated by the prospect of normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia… that is the wrong lens to be looking at things,” said Maksad. “This [US-Saudi] relationship is increasingly shaped by great power competitions, particularly US-China dynamics, rather than anything specific to the region and the Arab-Israeli conflict.”
U.S. President Donald Trump shakes hands with U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) after signing the funding bill to end the U.S. government shutdown, at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., November 12, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Epstein files on the US House floor, Ukraine hits Russia where it hurts, RSF consolidated its grip on Darfur
The US House set to vote to release Epstein files
The House of Representatives will vote next week to compel the Justice Department to release the Epstein files, after a trove of documents this week further linked President Donald Trump with the late sex offender. Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson have opposed the bill, but are braced for scores of their party to vote for the release – potentially over 100, according to Politico. Their defections signal that representatives fear being seen as implicated in a cover up could come back to bite them ahead of 2026 Midterm elections. Polling shows that 67% of Republicans agree that the administration should release all the documents. However, even if the bill does pass, it is unlikely to make it out of the GOP-controlled Senate, or get the White House signature it needs to become law.
For Ukraine, is offense the best form of defense?
Ukraine is on the verge of losing another town in the eastern part of the country, and at a great cost, raising questions over whether it should spend so much defending these areas. What’s more, Russia hit several residential towers in Kyiv last night. But Ukraine did have a response, using drones and cruise missiles to strike Russia’s Novorossiysk port, which sits on the Black Sea, and halt exports of 2% of the whole world’s oil supply. Fittingly, crude prices rose 2% as a result. With Ukraine struggling to hold onto towns out east, is a better option to halt Russia a continuation of strikes deep inside enemy territory?
World’s worst war is about to get even worse
Sudan’s horrific civil war is set for a fresh escalation as the paramilitary forces battling the army look to open a new front. The Rapid Support Forces, having consolidated power in the West and the South – where they are accused of recent mass killings and acts of genocide – are now eyeing an eastward push to the Kordofan region. Sudan’s civil war, now in its third year, has already displaced at least 13 million people, forcing some four million into neighboring countries. Estimates of the death toll run to 400,000. The US yesterday called for an arms embargo against the RSF, but the effect is unclear: a recent Washington-brokered ceasefire disintegrated within days.
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi answers a question at the Upper House's budget committee session at the National Diet in Tokyo, Japan, on November 12, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Japan’s PM organizes 3 a.m. meeting, Exam day for South Korea’s students, US government shutdown ends, & More
3: Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has taken her country’s difficult work culture to a new level, organizing a meeting last Friday at 3 o’clock – in the morning. Takaichi herself has a reputation as a workaholic, though it was still a surprise to see her leaving her residence just after 3 a.m. to convene a meeting that lasted three hours.
550,000: South Korea will come to a standstill today as 550,000 students, the most in seven years, will sit down to take the country’s infamously-long college entrance exam. For most students, the exam – which could determine their education and future job prospects – will last roughly eight hours. Blind students receive extra time, though, meaning they can spend up to 13 hours in the exam room. If you’re anything like us, that thought provokes cold chills.
43: The longest-ever US government shutdown is over after 43 days, after US President Donald Trump signed a continuing resolution last night that will fund the government until Jan. 30. Earlier on Wednesday evening, the House passed the bill, with six centrist Democrats crossing the aisle to vote for it – two Republicans voted against.
5: Trump became the fifth leader to announce that he won’t travel to South Africa next week for the G20 summit, joining Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, and Argentine President Javier Milei. US Vice President JD Vance will go in Trump’s stead.
10: France today mourns the 10th anniversary of the Bataclan attacks, when Islamic State-linked militants killed 132 people in a series of coordinated attacks in and around Paris. The country remains wary of threats from jihadist militants – the interior minister said authorities have foiled six terrorist plots this year.
What spies can teach us about persuasion
“They are the world’s best salespeople,” Hurewitz told GZERO. Spies master the hardest pitch imaginable: convincing someone to commit treason. And the skills they use—empathy, curiosity, and what he calls “the art of elicitation”—are just as valuable in boardrooms and negotiating tables today.
However, those abilities are also experiencing a societal recession as political polarization grows, and screens and devices threaten to erode the “soft skills” spies, and the rest of us, can use to get what we want.
Watch Hurewitz’s interview with GZERO’s Tony Maciulis for more on what world leaders can learn from spies, what he thinks of President Donald Trump's skills as a salesman, and how artificial intelligence is impacting the traditional world of espionage.