Some say Donald Trump is a clear favorite for re-election next year, while others insist that unless the Democrats nominate Leon Trotsky to take him on, he'll probably lose. A new CNN poll released this week found that 54% of respondents say Trump will win a second term.
There's persuasive evidence on both sides of this debate. Consider…
Will Congressman Justin Amash's call for impeachment change anything?
I don't think it fundamentally changes anything. It gives Democrats a little cover to say there's bipartisan support for impeachment but not a lot of Republicans are going to jump on that train.
Can Joe Biden win in the industrial Midwest?
He absolutely can. He's got a lot of blue collar support. Trump's trade war is hurting him across the industrial Midwest. So Biden's a real threat to Trump there, if he gets the nomination.
Will abortion be a big issue in 2020?
Well now it will, with the restrictive law in Alabama and elsewhere. That's going to galvanize the women's vote. Probably get some evangelicals even more excited for Trump. So yes, big issue 2020.
Final question today is - The Rant. And my rant is on President Trump tweeting today about how all of Wall Street wanted to do business with him but he just liked Deutsche Bank better than the rest. Simply not true. Banks across Wall Street stopped doing business with Trump because he was too much of a risk. And they just didn't want his business. So surprise, surprise, Trump is tweeting things that aren't accurate.
How much will the China trade war hurt American citizens?
It's already hurting them a lot, particularly farmers. It's going to hurt more now that China is retaliating again. And if we go to 25% tariffs on everything China exports to the United States, that's much higher consumer prices, bad for consumers, bad for markets, going to hurt.
Does all the impeachment talk help Donald Trump's re-election effort?
I don't think so at this point. I certainly don't think it drives swing voters to him. I think if it drags on forever and Democrats don't make a decision, then it could be beneficial to Trump, but right now I don't see it helping him motivate his hardcore base - but they're already motivated.
Is breaking up Facebook becoming a litmus test for Democrats?
I don't know about quite breaking it up, but certainly talking about the possibility and more broadly about the power of Facebook and other big tech giants is definitely important for all Democratic candidates.
Will Don Jr. testify before the Senate?
He certainly doesn't want to, his father doesn't want him to. Plenty of Republican senators say don't do it. I don't know how he ultimately avoids it but he's going to try to delay it. His lawyers will try to delay it so it could take some time.
Can trump stop Robert Mueller from testifying on Capitol Hill?
No, he can't stop it. He could try to slow it down with legal challenges, maybe even invoke executive privilege, but he cannot stop it.
What's up with all of Trump's tweets about China over the weekend?
I'm told by an administration official that Trump is trying to force China's hand to get a deal done by Friday, it could backfire. The Chinese do not like these kind of tactics.
Can Jared Kushner get his immigration plan through Capitol Hill?
No, there's people lining up on left and right already opposing it. Immigration had proved incredibly challenging over the last decade to get anything done. And Jared Kushner is not going to be the one who solves that.
Is Mayor Pete Buttigieg a moderate Democrat?
Well it's tough to slot him into any particular category but he's definitely more moderate than Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren. He's also for 'Medicare for All' and fixing the environment. But he does care about debt and deficits and the long term impact on his generation.
And go deeper on topics like cybersecurity and artificial intelligence Microsoft On The Issues.
What do Spain's election tell us about populism in Europe?
It says that populism is continuing to grow. The VOX party on the far right for the first time breaks through 10%. They are in Parliament, they've got 24 seats, and like so many other countries across Europe that's something that is continuing to grow. Their popularity is mostly in the south, where all of those North African immigrants are coming in.
