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Former Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan speaks to Reuters during an interview in Lahore, Pakistan, in March 2023.

REUTERS/Akhtar Soomro

Hard Numbers: Imran Khan faces new sentence, Russia gets economic upgrade, Philippines and Vietnam join hands in South China Sea, Germany makes big Bitcoin seizure

10: Pakistan’s former Prime Minister Imran Khan and former Foreign Minister ShahMahmood Qureshi were sentenced Tuesday to 10 years in prison for leaking state secrets. While Khan is already serving a three-year term on corruption charges, this is Qureshi’s first conviction. The new ruling comes just a week before general elections on Feb. 8. Khan’s political party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, called it “a sham case” and plans to challenge the decision in a higher court.

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Vietnam's Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh meets with Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong at the Istana in Singapore February 9, 2023.

REUTERS/Edgar Su

Friendshoring and the curious case of Vietnam

Post-Davos, another of the big trends we will be watching this year is the expansion of the “friendshoring” phenomenon that has seen a significant rise in the political proximity of trade (and a shift away from geopolitical rivals).

Trade between the US and China is still rising in absolute terms, but Beijing’s share of exports to the US has fallen 7.2% since 2017. Other countries like Mexico and Canada are hoping to pick up some scraps, based on trade agreements and being nestled next to the US border. Canadian Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland was in Davos making a pitch for new investment, based on Canada’s critical mineral resources and clean energy supply (not to mention, $88 billion in investment subsidies to compete with the US Inflation Reduction Act).

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Former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger has died at age 100.

Jonathan Ernst/Reuters

Negotiating with Henry Kissinger and his legacy

I was writing my column today about the Israel-Hamas cease-fire when I heard the news that Henry Kissinger had died at the age of 100. For a media company like ours, which focuses on geopolitics, Kissinger is one of the most defining, controversial, and complicated figures of the last century.

It is hard to find anyone who has worked seriously on politics or studied foreign affairs who has not had an encounter with or held a view of Henry Kissinger. Statesman. War criminal. Genius. Failure. You name it, the allegations have been thrown at him. Kissinger embodied the possibilities and the perils of power. You will hear the debate over his legacy play out – as it has been playing out for decades – in the days and weeks to come. But the first thing you have to know about him is this: Everything and every moment with Kissinger was a negotiation. Including his legacy.

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In blow to China, US secures closer partnership with Vietnam

On his way back from the G20 meeting in India, US President Joe Biden will stop off in Vietnam on Sept. 10 to seal an agreement to deepen US ties with the Southeast Asian country. The two former enemies will upgrade their bilateral relationship from a “comprehensive partnership” to a “comprehensive strategic partnership,” the highest level in Vietnam’s diplomatic hierarchy. This new top-tier diplomatic status places the US on par with China, Russia, India, and South Korea.

The change may pave the way for weapons sales and closer maritime cooperation. But possibly even more important at a time of intense US-China competition is the symbolism of Vietnam, a Chinese neighbor and fellow communist country, moving closer to the US. We asked Eurasia Group expert Peter Mumford to explain the motivations behind the deal for both sides.

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The geopolitics of "Barbie"
The Geopolitics of "Barbie" | Quick Take | GZERO Media

The geopolitics of "Barbie"

Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi everybody. Ian Bremmer here, and a special update, Quick take, I know you need to hear about this. The geopolitics of "Barbie".

"Barbie" is coming out. No, not in that way. Next week in the United States and the United Kingdom, massive launch. You've seen the dreamhouse, you've seen the buses, you've seen the excitement, and now you've seen the geopolitical backlash. It was not what you were expecting. I certainly don't remember there ever being a political science Barbie. Uh, there is a campaign manager Barbie that they made. That's, that's pretty much the opposite when you think about it. And there's also a Chief Sustainability Officer Barbie, that was of course, made of plastic naturally. But never a geopolitical analyst Barbie. Well, maybe that was a mistake, turns out there's a problem.

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Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro

Hard Numbers: Colombia ceasefire, Barbie ban, Libyan crude concerns, Holland vs. Smartphones

6: The Colombian government and the ELN, the last remaining major guerrilla group in the country, said Thursday they would halt hostilities ahead of a historic six-month ceasefire meant to take effect in August. Colombia’s embattled President Gustavo Petro, a former guerrilla who was elected last year as the country’s first left-wing leader, has pledged to secure “Total Peace” in a country still wracked by violence despite the 2016 peace deal signed with the FARC, the largest guerrilla group of all.
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European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen delivers a speech at the 2023 World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

BENOIT DOPPAGNE/Belga/Sipa USA via Reuters Connect

What We’re Watching: EU's green subsidies, Vietnam’s leader canned, Bolivia's psychic cat hunter

To push back against IRA, EU plans its own green subsidies

It’s no secret the European Union has been unhappy with what it sees as unfair trade practices coming from Washington and Beijing. US President Joe Biden’s passage of the $369 billion Inflation Reduction Act, for example, offers consumer tax credits as well as incentives to US producers of green tech products that Europeans fear will put the continent’s manufacturers at an unfair advantage — perhaps even pushing them to relocate stateside. No wonder, then, that speculation has been rife over the possibility of the EU introducing its own subsidies in response. On Tuesday, European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen told a Davos audience that the 27-member bloc will propose a Net-Zero Industry Act to mobilize EU support for green industries. Details will be hammered out at a summit in early February, but with the US investment so high, the EU’s commitment is expected to be big. The bigger questions are whether all these subsidies will be sustainable in the long term and if they will translate into lower prices that encourage EU consumers to buy more electric vehicles made in the bloc.

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Former United States President Donald Trump and Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro at Mar-a-Lago in 2020.

Reuters

What We’re Watching: Bolsonaro skipping town, Putin’s New Year’s gift, Vietnam’s growth, a bit of Xi & Putin face time

Bolsonaro takes off, Lula takes charge

On Sunday, left-wing former president Luiz "Lula” Inacio da Silva will once again be sworn in as Brazil’s president, a post he last held from 2003 to 2010. Hundreds of dignitaries will attend the ceremony in Brasilia, save for one very important person: Brazil’s outgoing President Jair Bolsonaro. The right-wing incumbent will be spending New Year’s Eve in Florida with someone who loves him — former US President Donald Trump. What signal does this send? Bolsonaro has suggested that the bitterly fought election against his nemesis Lula was unfair, and he has done little to stop his supporters from protesting to that effect, sometimes violently. Will his decision to skip the festivities quell concerns about a possible January 6 event in Brazil, or will his supporters read his decision to watch from Mar-a-Lago as a signal that the entire inauguration is illegitimate, fueling more anger as Lula takes power? Ever since the election, Bolsonaro and his team have been in close touch with Trump about next steps. On Sunday, we’ll be watching Lula, of course, but we’ll also be watching Bolsonaro’s supporters watching him watching Trump.

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