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Is the global economy finally on the right track?
How’s the global economy doing… really? When it comes to the world’s post-COVID recovery, it’s a tale of two economies: the United States and everyone else. On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sits down with economist and author Dambisa Moyo for a hard look at the health of the world’s finances and the impact of geopolitical crises in Europe and the Middle East on trade flows and inflation.
Right now, US indicators are strong, but Germany and the UK are slipping into mild recessions, and China’s collapsing real estate sector, local government debt, and exodus of foreign investment is dragging the world’s second-largest economy into stagnation. Not to mention, Global South countries are holding record amounts of debt. So what does it all mean moving forward? Is the global economy still shaking off its post-Covid hangover or are some of these problems more entrenched?
“We need to be growing at 3% per year in order to double per capita incomes in a generation which is 25 years,” Moyo says, “Most of the global south is growing below that number, materially.”
Ian Bremmer and Dambisa Moyo unpack the confusing state of the global economy, China’s economic woes, and where they see the biggest potential for growth in developing economies during the next decade.
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
- China’s economy in trouble ›
- Ian Explains: Why China’s era of high growth is over ›
- Struggling for economic progress as global recession looms in 2023 ›
- Dambisa Moyo: Europe's energy transition needs more than a "band-aid solution" ›
- The unintended effect of US-China economic breakup ›
- What saved the global economy from another Great Depression? ›
- Global economy headed to a recession ›
- What geopolitics stories could still blow up the global economy? ›
The global economy: good news and bad news from economist Dambisa Moyo
Listen: In the latest episode of the GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer sits down with economist, author, and member of the UK parliament’s House of Lords Dambisa Moyo for a hard look at the health of the world’s finances, the impact of geopolitical crises in Europe and the Middle East on trade flows and inflation, and how China’s economic woes are impacting everyone else.
Right now, US indicators are strong, but Germany and the UK are slipping into mild recessions, and China’s collapsing real estate sector, local government debt, and exodus of foreign investment is dragging the world’s second-largest economy into stagnation. Not to mention, Global South countries hold record amounts of debt. So what does it all mean moving forward? Is the global economy still shaking off its post-Covid hangover or are some of these problems more entrenched?
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.
Ian Explains: Is the US economy good or bad?
What’s going on with the US economy? On Ian Explains, Ian Bremmer breaks down the confusing state of America’s financial health.
Trying to make sense of economic indicators right now can be an exercise in illogic: unemployment is down, but inflation is still stubbornly sticky. Interest rates are higher than they’ve been in two decades, but stock indexes are closing at record highs. Adding to confusion, the upcoming US presidential election means that the economy is front and center, but Democrats and Republicans have a partisan interest in making things seem worse or better than they actually are. So what’s really going on?
When you look at the world’s post-Covid recovery, America is an outlier. US GDP grew faster than any other advanced economy last year. Wages are rising faster than they have in years, inflation, while sticky, is nowhere near its 2022 highs, and unemployment has been under 4% for the longest stretch since the 1960s. So why do only 28% of US voters have a positive view of the economy right now? Some economists are calling this moment “vibe-cession,” warning the negative “vibes” could have a major impact on the presidential election in November.
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
Yuval Noah Harari on protecting the right to be stupid
Bestselling author and historian Yuval Noah Harari makes the case for mental self-care in an age where our minds are bombarded with an unprecedented influx of information. In a wide-ranging interview with Ian Bremmer, filmed before a live audience at the 92nd Street Y in New York City, Harari stresses the importance of a healthy ‘'information diet.'
"Our minds were shaped back in the Stone Age," Harari says. Smartphones and social media, designed by the today’s smartest minds, are engineered to 'hack our brains and manipulate our emotions. Harari warns, "Anybody who thinks they are strong enough to resist it is just fooling themselves."
As a public intellectual, Harari is acutely aware of the weight of his words. "We need to build a wall between the mind and the mouth," he tells Bremmer. "I also think that we need a part of preserving privacy is to preserve the right for stupidity."
Watch full episode: Yuval Noah Harari explains why the world isn't fair (but could be)
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week online and on US public television. Check local listings.
- Podcast: Tracking the rapid rise of human-enhancing biotech with Siddhartha Mukherjee ›
- Why is America punching below its weight on happiness? ›
- Is life better than ever for the human race? ›
- Podcast: The case for global optimism with Steven Pinker ›
- Why human beings are so easily fooled by AI, psychologist Steven Pinker explains ›
The New York migrant crisis up close
Since 2022, New York City has absorbed more than 170,000 migrants, mostly sent on buses by Texas officials from the US-Mexico border. Many of them are asylum-seekers who hail from South American countries facing political and economic upheaval, like Venezuela and El Salvador. But increasingly, people from Asia, western Africa, and the Caribbean have been making the difficult journey to the US via the southern border as well.
Unlike other so-called “sanctuary cities,” New York has a legal mandate, known as a consent decree, that requires the city to provide shelter to anyone who asks for it. But the already under-funded, under-resourced system is struggling to deal with the influx of so many people. Adding to the chaos, in October, the city changed its policy to require everyone in the shelter system to reapply for a bed every 30-60 days. For asylum seekers already trying to navigate byzantine legal and healthcare systems, the instability can have devastating consequences.
That’s why grassroots organizers like Power Malu of Artists Athletes Activists, Adama Bah of Afrikana, and Ilze Thielmann of TeamTLC have been stepping up to fill a major gap in the city’s immigration system: greeting arrivals, pointing them towards resources, providing food and clothing. Most crucially, they're help people understand their rights and apply for asylum, so they can get work permits and find permanent housing.
Speaking from the front lines of this crisis, the organizers say the city isn't fully meeting the needs of the migrants coming here, despite spending $1.45 billion on migrant costs alone in 2023. "The illusion is that they're in these beautiful hotels and they're getting all of these services and it's not true," Malu says, "That's why you have organizations like ours that have stepped up and had to change from welcoming to now doing case management, social services, helping them with mental health therapy."
GZERO’s Alex Kliment spent time on the ground with newly-arrived asylum-seekers and the volunteers to better understand the reality on the ground, how this current crisis getting so much national attention is functioning day to day, and if the city could be doing more to help.
GZERO has reached out to City Hall for comment and will update with any response.
Learn more about the organizations mentioned in this report:
Catch this full episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer on public television beginning this Friday, March 15. Check local listings.
Yuval Noah Harari on the perils of viewing Israel-Palestine through the 'victimhood' context
In a wide-ranging conversation with Ian Bremmer, filmed live at the historic 92nd Street Y in NYC, bestselling author Yuval Noah Harari discusses the profound role narratives play in conflict resolution and identity politics. It’s through this framing that Harari and Ian address the latest conflict between Israel and Gaza. Victimhood, Harari posits, often comes with an element of truth, but it carries the danger of absolving individuals or nations of responsibility. "If you think about yourself primarily as a victim, it relieves you of all responsibility," he explains.
Bremmer also presses Harari on the notion of narratives, and particularly, how to distinguish between patriotism and nationalism. Harari describes patriotism as the love for a unique group and a willingness to do more for them, akin to how we treat our families. Nationalism, however, turns perilous when it crosses into supremacism — when love for one's group becomes an excuse to despise and discriminate against others. Harari asserts, "It becomes dangerous when we start saying this group of people, they are not just unique. They are superior."
Harari defends the possibility of simultaneously supporting the rights and dignities of both Israelis and Palestinians. Holding dual narratives of both people's aspirations to live dignified lives in their homelands is not only possible but necessary, according to Harari. "Just because you are in favor of the rights of Palestinians doesn't mean you have to be also in favor of destroying Israel completely," he states.
Watch full episode: Yuval Noah Harari explains why the world isn't fair (but could be)
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week online and on US public television. Check local listings.
A Russian victory would end the global order, says Yuval Noah Harari
The Ukraine war remains the most important geopolitical conflict in the world, says bestselling author and historian Yuval Noah Harari.
In a wide-ranging conversation with Ian Bremmer filmed live at the 92nd Street Y in New York City, Harari says that if Russia wins in Ukraine, the global order as we’ve known it for decades is over. "The most fundamental rule was that you cannot just invade and conquer another country just because you're stronger. This is exactly what Putin is trying to do in Ukraine."
The conversation also touches on the potential ripple effects of Russia's actions, suggesting that a successful annexation could embolden other nations to follow suit, destabilizing global peace. Harari even entertains the notion that we might be in the early stages of a third World War, unrecognized in the current moment, much like the early years of World War II were not immediately identified as such. "If he gets away with it, we'll see more and more Putins all over the world” Harari says. "There is a scenario that we are already living in the midst of the third World War and we just don't know it."
Watch full episode: Yuval Noah Harari explains why the world isn't fair (but could be)
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week online and on US public television. Check local listings.
Yuval Noah Harari: AI is a “social weapon of mass destruction” to humanity
In a wide-ranging conversation with Ian Bremmer, filmed live at the historic 92nd Street Y in NYC, bestselling author Yuval Noah Harari delves deep into the profound shifts AI is creating in geopolitical power dynamics, narrative control, and the future of humanity.
Highlighting AI's unparalleled capacity to make autonomous decisions and generate original content, Harari underscores the rapid pace at which humans are ceding control over both power and stories to machines. "AI is the first technology in history that can take power away from us,” Harari tells Bremmer.
The discussion also touches on AI's impact on democracy and personal relationships, with Harari emphasizing AI's infiltration into our conversations and its burgeoning ability to simulate intimacy. This, he warns, could "destroy trust between people and destroy the ability to have a conversation," thereby unraveling the fabric of democracy itself. Harari chillingly refers to this potential outcome as "a social weapon of mass destruction." And it’s scaring dictators as much as democratic leaders. “Dictators,” Harari reminds us, “they have problems too.”
Harari's insights into AI's impact on democracy, intimacy, and social cohesion offer a stark vision of the challenges and transformations lying ahead. "The most sophisticated information technology in history, and people can no longer talk with each other?"
Watch full episode: Yuval Noah Harari explains why the world isn't fair (but could be)
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week online and on US public television. Check local listings.
- Everybody wants to regulate AI ›
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- From CRISPR to cloning: The science of new humans ›