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Did Ukraine blow up the Nord Stream pipelines?
Did Ukraine blow up Nord Stream pipelines? | Quick Take | GZERO Media

Did Ukraine blow up the Nord Stream pipelines?

Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi everyone. And have you seen the latest news on Nord Stream 1, 2? It has been months since that pipeline, those pipelines were destroyed, were sabotaged, and we haven't had any information on who's behind it. Been big questions. Why would the Russians blow up their own pipelines? I've been skeptical, and the investigations that the Europeans have been engaged in, no evidence whatsoever. There was this piece by Seymour Hersh that I looked into pretty closely, one anonymous source claiming the Americans and the Norwegians were behind it. That turned out to be not standing up on its facts on a whole bunch of pieces of ostensible evidence brought in the piece. But now we have a New York Times piece that's come out with direct sourcing from US senior officials, including intelligence officials, claim that there is evidence that a Ukrainian organization was behind the explosion.

Now, I want to say, first of all, that was my view over the last few months, is if anyone was likely behind it would probably be Ukraine. And the question is, would they have the capacity? Because the interest was certainly highest. They are the ones that desperately want to ensure that the Russians don't continue to have leverage to potentially drive a wedge around European support and get that gas flowing again from Russia into Germany and into Europe.

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Luisa Vieira

Lessons from the COVID lab-leak fiasco

The US Department of Energy made unlikely headlines over the weekend when The Wall Street Journal reported that new evidence had led the agency to conclude with “low confidence” that the COVID-19 virus probably escaped from a Chinese lab. The DOE’s findings match up with the FBI’s, which point to an accidental leak from the Wuhan Institute of Virology with “moderate confidence.”

This follows investigations by four other agencies plus the National Intelligence Council that concluded with low confidence that the virus spread naturally from animals to humans, possibly in a wet market in Wuhan. Other intelligence agencies, including the CIA, remain undecided, much like DOE was until recently.

The bottom line is we still don’t know how the pandemic got started. Both origin stories – natural transmission and laboratory leak – are scientifically plausible. The DOE’s report should lead us to update our beliefs slightly toward the lab-leak theory, but the score in the intelligence community is still 5-2 in favor of zoonotic transfer, and all but the FBI’s conclusions were reached with low confidence.

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The biggest threats to US national security, foreign and domestic
The Biggest Threats To US National Security, Foreign And Domestic | GZERO World

The biggest threats to US national security, foreign and domestic

Less than a month ago, the Biden administration finally dropped its long-anticipated National Security Strategy. The No. 1 external enemy is not Russia but rather China. It also emphasizes the homegrown threat of Americans willing to engage in political violence if their candidate loses at the ballot box.

On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer speaks to New York Times national security correspondent David Sanger about the key national security threats facing the United States right now.

Sanger believes the biggest threat to America's national security right now is an "insider threat" to the stability of the election system coming from Americans willing to engage in political violence. Taiwan's status as a semiconductor superpower may be staving off a Chinese invasion.

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Iran's morality police: not disbanded
Iran's Morality Police Not Disbanded | Quick Take | GZERO Media

Iran's morality police: not disbanded

Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi, everybody. Ian Bremmer here and a Quick Take to kick off your week. There's plenty to talk about around the world but I wanted to focus a little bit on Iran. We've had over two months of demonstrations across the entire country, grassroots, mostly young people, led by women in opposition to the morality police and the incredibly oppressive treatment that women in particular have in that country, not least of which, the forced wearing of the hijab under penalty of arrest.

Now, it's very interesting that over the course of the weekend, there was all sorts of headlines put out that the Iranian government announced that they were abolishing the morality police, and if that were true, it would be a big deal. Remember, Iran, for over two months, the only response to the demonstrations has been repression, and the supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, came out just a week ago and said that he would not listen to the voice of the people. He absolutely rejected that, and instead, what we've seen is more arrests and increasingly, we're seeing harsh sentences being put against those people that have been involved in demonstrations. In some cases, even the death sentence.

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China and US economic interdependence hasn't lessened
China & US Economic Interdependence Hasn't Lessened | World In :60 | GZERO Media

China and US economic interdependence hasn't lessened

Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week with a look at the China-US economic relationship, North Korea's missiles tests, and the New York Times' investigation of the US drone strike in Afghanistan.

China owns more than $1 trillion US debt, but how much leverage do they actually have?

I mean, the leverage is mutual and it comes from the enormous interdependence in the economic relationship of the United States and China. And it's about debt. And it's about trade. It's about tourism. It's about sort of mutual investment. Now. There is some decoupling happening in terms of labor, increasingly moving domestic in terms of the China five-year plan, dual circulation focusing more on domestic economy, and in terms of data systems breaking up, the internet of things, being Chinese or American, but not both. And indebtedness is part of that. But I don't see that unwinding anytime soon. And certainly, the Chinese knows if they're going to get rid of a whole bunch of American debt, they wouldn't be as diversified in global portfolio. Not as great, it's much riskier. And also, the price of those holdings, as they start selling them down would go down. So, I don't think there's a lot of leverage there, frankly. I think the leverage is interdependent.

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Don’t "give up" on all 73 million Americans who voted for Trump
Don’t "Give Up" on All 73 Million Americans Who Voted For Trump | The Red Pen | GZERO Media

Don’t "give up" on all 73 million Americans who voted for Trump

In an op-ed in the New York Times, author Wajahat Ali says he's giving up on reaching out to Trump supporters and thinks Ian Bremmer and others shouldn't bother trying. On this edition of The Red Pen, where we pick apart the argument in a major opinion piece, Ian and Eurasia Group's Jon Lieber explain what Ali got wrong - and right - and why it's important to see the 73 million Americans who voted for Trump with nuance.

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China Expelling Journalists | US-China Tensions Rise in Pandemic
China Expelling Journalists | US-China Tensions Rise in Pandemic | Amb. Cui Tiankai | GZERO World

China Expelling Journalists | US-China Tensions Rise in Pandemic

China's ambassador to the U.S., Cui Tiankai, discusses his nation's decision to expel reporters from major publications like The New York Times and Wall Street Journal, saying it was in retaliation for similar treatment of Chinese journalists in America. Ian Bremmer then asks him if the COVID-19 pandemic has only exacerbated already strained China/US relations.

Covering a Pandemic: COVID-19 and the Media
Covering a Pandemic: COVID-19 and the News Media | Ben Smith, NYT | GZERO World with Ian Bremmer

Covering a Pandemic: COVID-19 and the Media

In this week's episode, Ian Bremmer explores the media's handling of the coronavirus pandemic, and President Trump's treatment of journalists. With guest Ben Smith, media columnist at The New York Times and former head of Buzzfeed News, the show looks at global coverage of COVID-19, including misinformation campaigns and social media's role in society today. Later in the program, meet Danny Rogers of The Global Disinformation Index. His group is working hard to find harmful or misleading information online and alert major publishers and tech platforms.

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