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Will China's tech sector be held back?

Ian Bremmer's Quick Take:

Hi everybody, Ian Bremmer here, and a happy post-4th of July. Spending a couple of days in Nantucket, back to New York in relatively short order. But a Quick Take to kick off your shortened week.

And I thought I would talk a little bit about what's happening between the Chinese and the Americans on tech. In particular, I think it's quite important that the Chinese government and their regulatory authority on cyberspace, the Cyberspace Administration of China, the CAC, has been focusing a cybersecurity probe on Chinese companies that have recently listed in the United States. It started last Friday with Didi, which is the leader for Chinese ride hailing. So it's basically like Uber or Lyft in China, $4 billion IPO in New York just a couple of days before the Chinese government announced that they were going to engage in serious scrutiny and regulation of the company. Their stock value went down like 20% almost immediately on the back of that.

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Can China's communists rule for another 100 years?

Beijing is organizing a big celebration to commemorate the 100th birthday of the Chinese Communist Party, which has ruled the world's most populous country since 1949. Ahead of a much-hyped speech to be delivered to a large audience by leader Xi Jinping on Thursday in Beijing, the party has been conducting a wide-ranging campaign to raise public awareness of its 100-year history. Beijing has ordered officials across the country to make sure nothing mars this week's events.

We spoke to Neil Thomas, a China analyst at Eurasia Group, to better understand the importance of this anniversary for China's leadership.

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Meet the party that runs China

July 1st is the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party, which dominates politics in the world's most populous country. You have probably read, or will read this week, a barrage of media coverage about the CCP's history, how it has changed under General-Secretary Xi Jinping, or what are its future plans for China. But today — and with some help by Eurasia Group expert Neil Thomas — we'll answer more basic questions about the famously opaque party.

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The future of the Chinese Communist Party

Ian Bremmer's Quick Take:

Hi everybody. Ian Bremmer here. Happy Monday. Starting to bake in New York City in the summertime, but glad for it, given the alternatives.

And I thought I would talk a little bit about the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party. Big speech coming up from President Xi Jinping, a big historic plenary for the party. Already, a big meeting by Xi and a number of the senior leaders just a week ago at the new Museum of the Communist Party of China in Beijing, reaffirmation of loyalty oaths to the party. At a time when Communist party membership, which had been flattening over previous years, is now growing in a robust way. Again, you've got almost a 100 million members of the Communist party across China and it's hard to get in. Only about 10% of applicants actually are accepted. It is increasingly seen as a way to be successful in core state-owned enterprises, opportunity, political access, economic access, you name it. If you're a young elite and you want to make a difference in China, having a party membership card and being seen to be loyal and having behaviors that are befitting a Communist party member are increasingly important.

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China's uncertain future & its new three-child policy

Ian Bremmer's Quick Take:

Hi everybody. Happy post long weekend. I want to do a quick take today on China, because you will have seen that the two-child policy has now gone the way of the one child policy. It is now a three-child policy. The one child policy, when they got rid of it, didn't really move people towards faster childbearing, as education rates improve, as well improves ... demographic explosion is reduced. And it's very hard to turn that around with a pro natality policy. Very few countries around the world have been able to accomplish that. And China is clearly not one of them.

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China has a big population problem

The world's most populous country has a big new problem: not enough babies. New census data show that at some point later this decade, the number of people living in China will start to fall.

How will that affect China's bid to overtake the US as the world's largest economy? Are there political implications for President Xi Jinping? China's leaders have so far been slow to come to grips with the magnitude of the looming demographic threat. GZERO talked with China experts at Eurasia Group to discuss the challenges ahead.

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Taiwan’s outsize importance in manufacturing semiconductor chips

A big reason the Chinese leader is pushing harder than ever to annex Taiwan is actually quite small. The self-governing island has an outsize manufacturing capacity for semiconductors – the little chips that bind the electrical circuits we use in our daily lives. Cell phones, laptops, modern cars, and even airplanes all rely on these tiny computer wafers. Taiwanese chip manufacturer TSMC alone makes more than half of the chips outsourced by all foreign companies, which means your iPhone likely runs on Taiwanese-made semiconductors. What would happen to the world's semiconductor chips if China were to take control of Taiwan?

Watch the episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer: What could spark a US-China war?

Would China really invade Taiwan?

The cover story of The Economist declares that Taiwan is "The most dangerous place on Earth," because China might finally be ready to plan an invasion of the island. But are the consequences of such a move worth the many risks to China and its President Xi Jinping? Ian Bremmer breaks out the Red Pen to to explain why a US-China war over Taiwan is unlikely.

We are taking our red pen to a recent article from The Economist. The Economist, you ask, how could I? I love The Economist, I know, I know. But you'd lose respect if I give this piece a pass. In fact, it was the magazine's cover story this week, so I had no choice. The image and headline say it all. Here it is, Taiwan is now "the most dangerous place on earth" as US/China relations continue to sour in the opening months of President Biden's administration.

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