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Taiwan's strategy for countering a Chinese invasion, with Bonny Lin of CSIS
On this week’s GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer sits down with Bonny Lin, director of the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, for a look at one of the most dangerous flashpoints in the world: the Taiwan Strait. China has been conducting drills around Taiwan for years, but since the current pro-independence president, William Lai, took office in 2024, Beijing has been staging near-daily military exercises near the island–larger, louder, and more aggressive than ever before.
Lai has pledged to boost defense spending, strengthen ties with the US, and reduce Taiwan’s economic dependence on China. But Lai faces serious political headwinds at home. His party lost its majority in parliament, and he’ll have to navigate a deeply divided government to get anything done. Meanwhile, Chinese President Xi Jinping says reunification with Taiwan is a national priority and has made it clear Beijing won’t hesitate to take the island by force if necessary. The stakes are global: A war in the Strait would reshape the world economy, drag in major powers, potentially triggering the deadliest military conflict in the Asia-Pacific since World War II. So how far can China push, and how long can Taiwan hold out, before a crisis becomes inevitable?
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How China would seize Taiwan without firing a shot
Chinese President Xi Jinping has made reunification with Taiwan a key pillar of his nationalist agenda. He’s ordered the People’s Liberation Army to be ready to seize Taiwan by 2027, and the PLA has been conducting near-daily military drills around the island–larger, louder, and more aggressive than ever before. On Ian Explains, Ian Bremmer breaks down how China could seize Taiwan without firing a single shot.
The rising tensions in the Taiwan Strait have policymakers and military analysts nervous China is preparing for an invasion. But is armed conflict with Taiwan in Beijing’s best interest? It would be deadly, costly, and likely to drag into the US and its allies. But short of an all-out invasion, China has plenty of options to force unification with Taiwan. It’s known as “gray zone” warfare—action that stays just below a threshold that would trigger an international response, which is ideal for Beijing: no missiles, no tanks, just a slow, suffocating squeeze.
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.