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Iranian policemen monitor an area near a residential complex that is damaged in Israeli attacks in Tehran, Iran, on June 13, 2025.
The world on edge: Israel bombs Iran
Israel bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities Thursday night, causing “significant damage” at the country’s main enrichment plant, killing leading Iranian military figures and nuclear scientists, and sparking fears that the Middle East is on the verge of a wider war.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Friday morning the operation hasn’t ended, with strikes continuing into the afternoon.
The United States denied any involvement in the attacks, even though previous reports have suggested that Israeli Defense Forces couldn’t destroy Tehran’s nuclear facilities without Washington’s help. US President Donald Trump nonetheless used the opportunity to press Iran into making a deal – the US and Iran were supposed to hold talks in Oman on Sunday, but it’s now unclear whether Iranian officials will attend.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei pledged a “harsh” response, but their ability to respond has been hindered by Israeli strikes on Iran’s long-range missile facilities and air defenses. The IDF reported on Friday morning that Iran launched 100 drones into Israel, but there were no reports of significant damage.
The strikes mark a seminal moment for Netanyahu. The Israeli leader has long threatened bombing Iran, as he sees this as the only effective method of preventing Tehran from acquiring a nuclear weapon – he doesn’t believe the US nuclear talks can achieve this. Netanyahu never followed through with this threat when former US President Barack Obama was negotiating a nuclear deal with Tehran a decade ago. This time is different: Netanyahu believes Iran is weak – many of their allies in the Middle East are either severely diminished or in exile – so he took his chance.
The strikes went much further than last year’s exchanges, in which Israel bombed the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Syria and Iran responded with a volley of 300 drones and missiles at Israel, which inflicted little visible damage.
Israel’s strikes yesterday didn’t come totally out of the blue. US and European officials warned earlier in the week that Israel was preparing a strike. Washington also evacuated nonessential staff from its embassy in Baghdad, as well as family members of military personnel at its Middle East bases, amid concerns about a widening conflict.
Where does it go from here? We asked Eurasia Group’s Middle East expert Firas Maksad to shed some light on a complex and dangerous situation. The conversation was edited for length and clarity.
Q: How will Iran respond, and what can it do now that some of its military capabilities have been damaged?
- Maksad: “It has to respond forcefully, if only to save face with a domestic audience, which is important for regime stability, but also to have leverage if there is any return to negotiations further down the road. However, its ability to reach Israel and effect significant damage is fairly limited. Its other options – including closure of the Straits of Hormuz, impacting oil prices or attacks against American basing facilities or even energy facilities in the GCC – those are all options that can backfire and provide the United States with enough pretext and reason to join the war.”
Q: Who, if anyone, can help Iran respond?
- Maksad: “Iran will naturally look towards its proxy network in the region in pursuit of its forward defense strategy, essentially having Hezbollah, but also the Houthis and the militias in Iraq, to come to its aid in a response. However, [the ability of these groups to respond] has been greatly diminished as a result of the past 18 months or so of war.”
Q: Will Israel attack more?
- Maksad: “The Israelis have said that this is only the beginning, the opening salvo of a long and sustained military campaign. I believe that to be the case. They can, in fact, inflict significant damage against Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. However, that will require multiple waves of strikes for days and weeks to come, and so I suspect that this will be with us for quite some time.”
Q: Are there any hopes left for a US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Maksad: “Diplomacy is dead for the foreseeable future. It is very unlikely that the Iranian government will return to the negotiating table without at least having attempted a retaliatory strike first, for the purposes of saving face and gathering leverage. This will require some time, particularly as these Israeli strikes are ongoing, and so it is very unlikely, despite President Trump's call for Iran to come back to diplomacy, that the diplomatic off ramp will be Iran’s preferred path forward for weeks to come.”
We also asked Eurasia Group’s Director of Analysis Marc Gustafson whether the United States could be dragged into a regional war.
- Gustafson: “Trump will try to avoid getting involved. Not just because it is risky for the US military, but also because his campaign promise has been to get the US out of foreign wars. This message resonates with his base. That said, the US could get pulled into the conflict. [For example,] if Iran starts attacking US bases within range of Iran’s short-range missiles, Trump will be under considerable pressure to respond militarily.”
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk reacts after a vote of confidence for his center-left coalition government, in Warsaw, Poland, June 11, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Polish PM’s gamble pays off, UK sanctions Israeli government ministers, Taiwan indicts Chinese “spies”, and more
33: Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk survived a no-confidence measure on Wednesday by a margin of 33 votes in the 460 seat legislature. Tusk had called the vote himself in a bid to reinforce his mandate after an ally of his lost the presidential election to a rightwing challenger late last month.
4: Taiwanese prosecutors indicted four former members of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party over allegations of spying for China. One of the alleged suspects worked as an assistant to former Foreign Minister Joseph Wu, who is now the secretary-general of Taiwan’s National Security Council.
0.1%: The US’ annual inflation index rose by 0.1 points from 2.3% last month—an early indication that Trump’s tariffs are having only a modest impact on consumer prices so far.
5: Five western countries – Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Norway, and the UK – imposed sanctions on two of Israel’s far-right ministers on Tuesday, accusing Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich of “inciting extremist violence” in the West Bank and denying essential aid to Palestinians in Gaza. Israel’s foreign minister Gideon Saar pledged a response to the “outrageous” move.
40%: US National Institutes of Health Director Dr. Jay Bhattacharyadefended his agency during a Senate hearing on Tuesday after the Trump administration proposed a 40% budget cut to it. Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) slammed the proposed cuts, which would lower the NIH’s total budget to $27.5 billion for the next fiscal year.
1,200: Russia and Ukraine began a major prisoner swap earlier this week, with each side expected to hand over at least 1,200 prisoners. However, prospects for a ceasefire remain distant: Kyiv and Moscow have exchanged ferocious aerial assaults in recent days.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu followed by National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir walk inside the Israeli parliament, the Knesset, in Jerusalem March 27, 2025.
Netanyahu’s coalition is crumbling
Israel’s ruling coalition is facing its most serious crisis yet. Two of the country’s ultra-Orthodox parties — United Torah Judaism and Shas — announced they are quitting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government over proposed changes to long-standing rules that exempt ultra-Orthodox students from Israel’s military draft. The split is likely to collapse the coalition. The centrist opposition Yesh Atid party has already filed a motion to dissolve the Knesset, Israel’s legislature. A vote on that, set for June 11, is likely to succeed, triggering a general election by November.
The withdrawal of the two parties came in response to a bill introduced by a member of Netanyahu’s Likud party that would curtail military exemptions. The ultra-Orthodox community has largely been exempted from military service since Israel’s founding, but that arrangement is under growing strain as the Gaza war stretches Israel’s manpower, forcing repeated reserve call-ups that have generated increasing public anger at this exemption.
“This issue — ultra-Orthodox conscription — is part of a divide that’s governed Israel for 70 years. It’s not new, but it’s symbolic of the larger cultural war,” says Middle East Institute Scholar Dr. Ilan Peleg.
But this was just the straw that broke the camel’s back. Netanyahu’s coalition has been becoming increasingly fractured as polarization and government dissatisfaction has risen in the country. The prime minister is personally motivated to remain in charge to preserve his legal immunity amid ongoing corruption trials. To do so, he has relied on two key groups to stay in power: ultra-nationalists who want to escalate the war in Gaza beyond what much of the Israeli public is willing to tolerate, and ultra-Orthodox parties who insist on maintaining exemptions from military service — a stance that has generated resentment among some non-Orthodox Israelis, who bear the brunt of the war effort.
With the ultra-Orthodox unlikely to return without a clear legislative fix — and none is forthcoming — the odds of a government collapse are high.
This upheaval raises big questions.
The first is Iran. “The threat posed by Iran’s nuclear program is one of the few unifying issues among Israelis,” says Eurasia Group’s Middle East Director Firas Maksad. “A successful raid that delays Iran’s ability to acquire a nuclear weapon could strengthen Netanyahu’s domestic position.”
But a dramatic move against Iran, without strong US backing — particularly from President Donald Trump, who currently favors diplomacy — would carry major risks.
“Even if it’s possible technically to do it, maybe desired by Israelis,” Peleg explains, “the American veto would be a major factor on the negative side.”
The second is Gaza. Early elections would raise pressure on Netanyahu to secure more hostage releases from Gaza and strike a temporary ceasefire — with growing war fatigue and frustration over hostages likely to weaken Likud at the polls.
If the government collapses and elections are held, the increasingly unpopular Netanyahu could lose his grip on power. He would be challenged by former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, whose newly-registered right-wing party is currently leading in the polls.
Netanyahu, a skilled politician who has held the premiership in several stints since the 1990s, has come back from more than one prediction of his demise. Will this time be different?
Maksad says that while it’s “not impossible that [Netanyahu] could manage to return the premiership… It would be an uphill battle.”
US President Donald Trump meets with China's President Xi Jinping at the start of their bilateral meeting at the G20 leaders summit in Osaka, Japan, on June 29, 2019.
What We’re Watching: Trump-Xi phone call, Netanyahu’s coalition cracks apart, & More
Trump speaks with Xi
US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping spoke Thursday for the first time since the former returned to office, as a recent pause in their trade war looked set to fall apart. Both sides recently stepped back from mutual triple-digit tariffs, but Beijing has drawn fire from Trump for restricting the export of rare earths minerals used by the US auto and tech industries. No breakthroughs were announced but Trump described the call as “very positive” and said a summit is in the works.
Netanyahu’s coalition set for divorce
In what could spell the end for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, two ultra-Orthodox parties that form part of the governing coalition are reportedly set to back the Knesset’s dissolution, in protest against a potential new law that would fine religious university students who skip military service. The dissolution vote will take place on June 11. If United Torah Judaism and Shas, the two dissenting parties, join the opposition in voting to dissolve the government, there will be elections again in Israel.
US institutes new travel ban
Trump on Wednesday barred foreign nationals from 12 countries from entering the United States – including Afghanistan and Haiti – and placed partial restrictions on seven others. The ban is set to take effect on Monday 12:01 EST. The US president linked the new restrictions to Sunday’s terror attack in Colorado against a group of people who were marching in solidarity for the Israeli hostages in Gaza. Trump implemented a similar travel ban during his first term, one that the Supreme Court upheld in 2018.Graphic Truth: Another US ceasefire proposal for Gaza
It’s been two weeks since Israel launched its latest offensive in Gaza, one that is set to expand further. Attacks on the enclave in this period have regularly killed dozens, per Hamas-run health ministries, with reports over the weekend of deaths at an aid site. Some of Israel’s allies are even turning on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
The offensive does appear to have weakened Hamas – the Israeli military said it killedMuhammad Sinwar, the militant group’s Gaza leader, during airstrikes in May. US special envoy Steve Witkoff wants to seize on this opening, and has sent a ceasefire offer to Hamas – one that includes an exchange of hostages for prisoners. This Graphic Truth lays out the key terms of the deal. Hamas has countered: it said it’s willing to release the hostages, but wants a permanent ceasefire.
US President Donald Trump talks to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a meeting where Trump announced nuclear talks with Iran, in Washington, D.C., USA, on April 7, 2025.
Bibi and Trump beef over Iran plan
Ten years ago, a US president tried to clinch a nuclear deal with Iran while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu threatened to bomb Tehran’s uranium facilities.
Donald Trump now faces the same issue as his old nemesis Barack Obama: the incumbent president wants a deal with Iran, while the Israeli PM wants to bomb it.
But there’s a key difference this time: unlike in 2015, Netanyahu’s government relies on support from far-right figures who are extremely hawkish on Iran. What’s more, Iran is more vulnerable now – Israel has pummeled Tehran’s key proxies Hamas and Hezbollah (just yesterday Israel killed Hamas’ Gaza leader Mohammad Sinwar (Yahya’s brother), plus the pro-Iran Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad fell late last year. This time around, Netanyahu’s threats to bomb Iran might be more than just posturing.
Didn’t Trump dismantle the last deal? Yes indeed! Trump exited the Obama-era Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018. Under this plan, Iran had to demolish large parts of its nuclear program, and allow regular inspections of its facilities, in exchange for relief from crippling US and international sanctions on its energy exports and banks. The agreement did, however, allow Iran to continue enriching uranium at low levels until 2030, beyond which the limits were gone.
What’s happened since Trump ditched that deal? Maybe you’ll have guessed it: Iran, whose official position is that its nuclear ambitions are purely for energy, has enriched its uranium up to 60% purity after the US reinstalled the sanctions. Experts warn it is now less than a year away from producing a nuclear bomb.
Enough about the past – give me the update. Much like a decade ago, Bibi is none too happy about the prospect of an US-Iran nuclear deal, as it would strengthen a regime that he’d rather see fall – he views it as an existential threat to Israel.
“Attacking Iran and eliminating the threat of its nuclear program is something that has broad support in the Israeli security establishment and would cement Netanyahu’s status as one of Israel’s great leaders — if he can pull it off,” says Eurasia Group’s Iran expert Greg Brew.
Trump, by contrast, believes Tehran’s weak position makes it the perfect time to cut a deal – the US president said Wednesday that he told Netanyahu not to bomb Iran.
“I told him this would be inappropriate to do right now because we’re very close to a solution,” Trump said, adding that the two sides could reach an agreement in the next two weeks. In reality, per Brew, “a full deal is a long way off.”
But what if Israel strikes Iran? Would the US back them? Safe to say that Trump would be rather miffed if Israel proceeds with its attack plans – his reportedly feisty phone call with Netanyahu on Sunday attests to this. However, Bibi requires US support if he wants to destroy Iran’s nuclear program, so there’s a limit to what he can unilaterally achieve.
If an Israeli attack – with or without US support – prompted an Iranian response, the White House would feel pressure to back its ally, just as it did so when Tehran sent bombs into Israel last year. And if the US gets involved, it would all but kill any hopes of a deal.
American attitudes toward Israel have changed, too. There is something else that has changed since the US and Iran last negotiated a nuclear deal: Americans are much less supportive of Israel. As of March, 46% said they were more sympathetic to Israel amid their war with the Palestinians, the lowest rate in 25 years of polling, and down 16 points from a decade ago. Though the drop in support is sharpest among Democrats, a few hard-right influencers (looking at you, Tucker Carlson) have also questioned America’s support for Israel.
“There’s an outside chance that Trump doesn’t help Bibi but leaves Israel to defend itself against Iranian attack,” says Brew. “This is an immensely risky proposition for Bibi, and one of the reasons why he’s unlikely to attack Iran without first nailing down Trump’s support.”
EU pressures Israel over Gaza, Romania surprises, Poland vote ahead
In this episode of Europe In 60 Seconds, former prime minister of Sweden Carl Bildt checks in from Dayton, Ohio, with sharp insights on two key developments: The EU’s decision to review its association agreement with Israel amid mounting criticism of Israeli actions in Gaza and the West Bank, and a surprise turn in Romania’s presidential race where a centrist victory defied populist expectations.
Plus, all eyes turn to Poland for a critical second-round election on June 1. What’s at stake for Europe’s political future?
Trump’s call with Putin fails to deliver Ukraine ceasefire
Ian's takeaways:
On Trump’s Ukraine policy: “Absent a ceasefire, there is no breakthrough deal between Trump and Putin. None of that’s going to happen.”
On Western backlash over Gaza: “At the end of the day, unless Trump is going to squeeze Israel hard and say, 'Suspend intelligence and aid,' the way he did with the Ukrainians, I have a hard time seeing the Israelis in any way backing down from what is at this point an completely unconscionable military intervention and ethnic cleansing across the board in Gaza."
On tech power vs. government: “In the US digital space, it’s the tech CEOs who hold the power and the government isn’t ready for what’s coming.”