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US President Donald Trump and Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán shake hands as they pose for a photo, at a world leaders' summit on ending the Gaza war, amid a US-brokered prisoner-hostage swap and ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, on October 13, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Orbán seeks Russian oil carveout from Trump, Nigerien uranium to pass through risky area, Israel hits southern Lebanon
MAGA’s European hero comes to Washington – with a mission
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán will visit the White House today to try to convince US President Donald Trump to allow him to continue purchasing Russian oil despite new US sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil firms. Oil refineries in China and India – the largest two buyers of Russian oil – are already exploring alternatives. But Orbán is hoping he can leverage his personal and ideological connection to Trump to gain a carveout. Landlocked Hungary relies on Russian pipelines for nearly 90% of its oil, though other non-Russian import routes via the Balkans are also possible. With the opposition surging ahead of next April’s election, there’s a lot on the line for Orbán. Will Trump give his mate a favor, or put his foot down?
Will Nigerien uranium reach Russia?
French officials believe Russian nuclear giant Rosatom struck a $170-million deal with the ruling military junta in Niger to purchase 1,000 tons of uranium from a mine formerly run by a French firm. The reported deal is the latest sign of Russia’s growing influence in the region, at the expense of the former colonial power, France. The greater concern with this purchase, though, could be that the uranium will have to pass through areas of Burkina Faso that are controlled by jihadist groups. Islamist militants are gaining momentum in West Africa – they have the Malian capital surrounded – sparking concern among governments in the region.
Israel attacks southern Lebanon
Israel temporarily breached its ceasefire deal with Lebanon on Thursday, issuing evacuation orders before bombing buildings in southern Lebanon it claimed were a part of Hezbollah’s military infrastructure. One person was killed and three were injured, per media reports. The Israeli military said the strikes were due to Hezbollah rebuilding its military capabilities, despite the Lebanese government agreeing to disarm the group. Fears are rising in Lebanon that Israel may resume major airstrikes if Hezbollah doesn’t give up its weapons soon, but Lebanon's government worries about inflaming local tensions if they push Hezbollah too aggressively.
Hard Numbers: Typhoon rips through the Philippines, Europe wants more rail, Israel returns bodies to Gaza, Canada’s Carney unveils first budget
85: A typhoon ripped through the Philippines on Tuesday, killing at least 85 people and forcing roughly 400,000 people to flee their homes – many of which are now flooded. The typhoon is set to continue through other parts of Southeast Asia, including Vietnam, Laos, and Thailand.
€345 billion: Europe may be tightening its internal borders, but it’s still pushing its trains: The European Union on Wednesday laid out a €345-billion ($396-billion) plan to slash train times between major European cities over the next 10-15 years. Under the plan, there will be trains that run at 200 kilometers per hour (roughly 125 mph) between each major EU city.
15: Israel returned the bodies of 15 Palestinians to Gaza on Wednesday, as part of ongoing exchanges required by last month’s ceasefire deal. Israeli authorities have now returned 285 bodies since the deal was signed, though it is not clear how many more they are holding. Hamas still holds the remains of seven Israeli hostages.
CA$78 billion: Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney unveiled his first budget on Tuesday, which includes new infrastructure spending, funds for the military, and major immigration cuts. However, the budget shows a deficit of $78 billion, the second-largest in the country’s history.
A Palestinian Hamas militant keeps guard as Red Cross personnel head towards an area within the so-called “yellow line” to which Israeli troops withdrew under the ceasefire, as Hamas says it continues to search for the bodies of deceased hostages seized during the October 7, 2023, attack on Israel, in Gaza City, on November 2, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Hamas returns three more hostage bodies, Tanzanian prez win reelection after quashing opposition, Another earthquake strikes Afghanistan, & More
3: On Sunday, Hamas handed the Israeli military the remains of three more hostages held in Gaza. The militant group said it had found them that same day in some of its tunnels beneath southern Gaza. Israel confirmed that the bodies belong to three deceased hostages, meaning there are now eight unreturned bodies left in Gaza. Returning all the bodies is a key condition for the fragile Hamas-Israel ceasefire.
98%: Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan was declared the winner on Saturday of the East African country’s election with 98% of the vote. Several opposition leaders were barred from running and detained, and the government shut down the internet in the run up to the election in a bid to quash unrest.
6.3: A 6.3-magnitude earthquake struck northern Afghanistan early Monday morning, killing at least 20 people and leaving hundreds injured. The quake also caused a power outage across the country, including in the capital Kabul, as electricity lines running from Tajikistan and Uzbekistan were damaged. It’s the second major earthquake to hit Afghanistan in the last few months.
$9.6 billion: Humans’ attention spans are getting short. How short? Chinese media studios are rushing to create “mini-drama” series where each episode lasts two minutes or less. The industry is flourishing, and is forecast to reach $9.6 billion (CN¥68.6 billion) in size this year. This would exceed China’s traditional box office.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman chairs the inaugural session of the Shura Council in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on September 10, 2025.
Could Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords?
The vibes are good between the United States and Saudi Arabia right now.
Negotiations have advanced on a mutual defense pact, one that would involve military and intelligence cooperation. The two oil-producing nations agreed on scuttling a deal that would have introduced internationally-mandated emissions targets for shipping. There are discussions, even, of holding a National Football League game in Riyadh.
But how far can the two nations go together? Could Saudi Arabia go so far as to join the Abraham Accords, the US-brokered normalization of ties between Arab states and Israel?
As the ceasefire in Gaza holds – albeit tenuously – the United States is already eyeing its next Middle East mission: having Saudi Arabia join Bahrain, Morocco, and the UAE as a signatory of the Accords and normalizing ties with Israel. This would authorize business relations, tourism between the two countries, and enable official diplomatic links. Riyadh has never recognized the Jewish state, and until three years ago, it wouldn’t even let commercial Israeli planes fly over its airspace. But its ever-closer relationship with Washington, as well as its thawing ties with Israel, suggest joining the Accords may be a real possibility.
How did the US and Saudi get so close? Saudi Arabia has been a major US partner in the Middle East ever since the Kingdom was founded in 1932. The relationship has largely centered on oil, with US firms helping the Saudi government explore the fossil fuel in the 1930s. More recently, it has shifted toward defense equipment.
There have been some major points of tension along the way, most notably from the 1973 oil embargo, the 9/11 attacks – 15 of the 19 hijackers that day were from from Saudi – the 2015 US-brokered nuclear deal with the Kingdom’s main regional rival Iran, and, most recently, when Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi was murdered in 2018 at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. A US report later found that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (MBS) greenlit the hit. During the 2020 US presidential campaign, former President Joe Biden suggested that Saudi should be a “pariah” state.
When US President Donald Trump returned to office, though, the tensions between the two countries dissipated. Just like in his first term, the US leader’s first major foreign visit of his second term was to the Gulf state, where he was greeted with a sea of opulent displays from his Saudi counterparts – rather different from Biden’s awkward fist-bump with MBS in 2022. The Crown Prince is set to pay a visit to Washington next month, too, his first since 2018.
Can the US transfer this goodwill to Saudi-Israel relations? The Kingdom has long said that it won’t normalize relations with Israel until the Jewish state recognizes a Palestinian state, a move that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears unlikely to make.
Yet there are signs that the longstanding tensions between the two countries are easing. Just before the Israel-Hamas war began more than two years ago, MBS said his country was moving “closer” each day toward a deal with Israel. Though those negotiations stalled in the wake of Israel’s response to the Hamas attacks of Oct. 7, 2023, the two sides reportedly coordinated to fend off Iranian bombs that were sent toward Israel during the 12-day Israel-Iran war in June.
“The Crown Prince has made a strategic decision to move in the direction of recognizing Israel,” Hussein Ibish, a senior resident fellow at the Arab Gulf States Initiative in Washington, told GZERO.
What’s more, the Saudis stand to benefit from normalizing ties with Israel, much as the current signatories of the Abraham Accords have. They would gain access to Israeli tech and security products, open links to Israeli investors and technology companies, and boost its tourism by opening its country up to Israeli visitors. And this isn’t to mention a preferable security agreement with the United States, which would likely be part of any peace deal with Israel.
Not so fast. There remain several risks for the Saudis in joining the Abraham Accords, per Ibish. For one thing, the Kingdom is a larger and more politically-complex state than the current signatories, making it harder to bring the various internal factions on board for a controversial deal with Israel. Further, the war in Gaza has heightened the Saudi public’s skepticism of Israel. Finally, Riyadh would risk its position as a leader of both the Arab and Muslim world if it normalized ties with the Jewish state, due to widespread opposition to such a move among the Arab public.
“You’ve got Saudi Arabia keenly protecting those interests,” said Ibish. “They would be compromised to some extent by recognition [of Israel].”
With Israel refusing to consider a two-state solution with the Palestinians, Ibish believes it’s unlikely that Saudi Arabia will normalize ties with the Jewish state. Nonetheless, Trump remains hopeful.
“I think that they’re going to all go in very soon,” the US leader told Fox News on Friday. “Wouldn’t it be nice?”
Egypt's path to economic stability with Rania Al-Mashat
As a landmark Gaza ceasefire reshapes Middle East stability, what does it mean for Egypt’s growth outlook?
Egypt’s Minister of Planning, Economic Development, and International Cooperation, Rania Al-Mashat tells GZERO’s Tony Maciulis the deal is “a monumental moment” and durable. “There’s no development without stability and peace,” she says, citing urgent Gaza reconstruction.
Despite recent changes, Egypt achieved a 5% economic growth, fueled by strategic reforms and a robust tourism sector. Highlighting progress, Al-Mashat shared Egypt's success in attracting over $17 billion in private sector investment, focusing on key industries like ICT and manufacturing. She notes, “Our economy has been rebounding, recovering very steadily.”
This conversation is presented by GZERO in partnership with Microsoft.. The Global Stage series convenes global leaders for critical discussions on the geopolitical and technological trends shaping our world.
Released hostage Evyatar David, who was kidnapped during the deadly October 7, 2023 attack by Hamas and taken to Gaza, reacts upon arrival at the site of Rabin Medical Center-Beilinson Hospital, in Petah Tikva, Israel, on October 13, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Israeli hostages return home, China snaps back at Trump’s tariff threat, Madagascar’s president flees the country
The Israeli hostages are finally home – but what next for Gaza?
After two years in Hamas captivity, the last 20 living Israeli hostages – all of them men – have returned home from Gaza, sparking jubilant scenes both for the families and across the Jewish state. US President Donald Trump touted their return during a speech to the Knesset, declaring that Israel was “at peace.” As part of the deal, Israel released over 1,900 Palestinian prisoners. Though the ceasefire is holding in Gaza, there remains a huge amount of uncertainty over the fate of the enclave and its management, as thousands of Palestinians return home to destroyed neighborhoods. Hamas is reappearing on Gazan streets, and has been clashing with rival Palestinian clans in recent days – with dozens killed. Under Trump’s 20-point peace plan, Hamas will have no role in Gaza’s future, yet the US president said over the weekend that the militant group has “approval for a period of time” to run security there. But for how long?
China hits back following Trump’s tariff threat
There might be a ceasefire in Gaza, but the US-China trade war is heating up again, as Beijing pledged to hit back at Washington should Trump follow through with his Friday threat to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods. The US president is trying to bring the temperature down again, saying on social media yesterday that he doesn’t want to “hurt” China. He also appeared to retract his threat to cancel his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping later this month in South Korea. Markets swung wildly over the weekend and into Monday amid the latest war of words between the world’s two biggest superpowers.
Madagascar’s president flees the country
Madagascar’s President Andry Rajoelina fled the country on Monday, after the elite CAPSAT military unit joined the Gen-Z led protests that have raged across the country since September. CAPSAT further announced that they are taking over the army. The protests began over water and electricity shortages but have spiraled into grievances like corruption and quality of life. CAPSAT brought Rajoelina to power in a 2009 coup, but on Saturday announced that it would not shoot on the protesters and escorted them into the capital’s main square. The toppling of Madagascar’s government opens questions of who will lead the country next, and mirrors recent protests against ruling elites in countries like Nepal, Indonesia, and Morocco.
Trump brokers peace: Hostages freed and guns fall silent in Gaza
A landmark moment in the Middle East: All 20 remaining Israeli hostages held by Hamas have been released, and a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas has been signed—brokered by President Trump.
Ian Bremmer calls it “a big win” for the president. “He had leverage, and he used it,” Ian says. “It’s much better to say your president succeeded than failed—and this is a success.”
The deal, backed by Egypt, Turkey, and Gulf states, halts two years of fighting. But as Ian notes, “lasting peace will depend on reconstruction, governance, and whether both sides can hold to their word.”
Can Israel become a "super-Sparta?"
Israel is stronger than ever militarily—and more isolated than ever diplomatically.
As Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu doubles down on the war in Gaza and rejects outside pressure, longtime allies are starting to walk away. Japan, Italy, and France have announced arms embargoes. The EU is proposing partial trade sanctions. Even Netanyahu himself admits Israel is entering a “kind of isolation” that could last for years.
His solution? Turn Israel into a “super-Sparta”—a self-reliant, hyper-militarized economy capable of standing alone. In the latest edition of Ian Explains, Bremmer breaks down whether that’s a viable strategy or just political defiance. With Israel’s economy slowing to its weakest growth rate in decades, global investment pulling back, and international condemnation mounting, the costs are starting to show.
And while US support remains strong for now, Trump’s pivot to Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and Qatar signals that even Washington’s patience may have limits. Can Israel afford to go it alone? Or will the pressure—economic, political, and strategic—force a shift in course? The coming months may decide just how much isolation Israel can sustain.
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
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