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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu smiles as he prepares to testify in his trial on corruption charges at the district court in Tel Aviv on Dec. 10, 2024.
Israel strikes Syria, Netanyahu goes to court
Israel has launched over 350 airstrikes this week targeting naval bases, ships, ammunition depots, and weapon facilities across Syria, devastating the Syrian Army’s remaining capabilities, according to the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. Israel claims it has destroyed most of Syria’s strategic weapons stockpiles and says the strikes were designed to prevent weapons from falling “into the hands of extremists.”The UN has also raised alarms over the security of chemical weapons stockpiles that are currently unaccounted for.
“If this regime allows Iran to re-establish itself in Syria, or permits the transfer of Iranian weapons or any other weapons to Hezbollah, or if it attacks us … we will exact a heavy price,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned.
The IDF also confirmed that it seized a 155-square-mile buffer zone inside Syria to prevent attacks in the aftermath of Assad’s ouster. Qatar, Turkey, and Egypt have all condemned Israel’s actions while the US and UK support them, with UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy saying “there are legitimate security concerns for Israel, particularly in the context of a country that has housed ISIS, and al-Qaida.”
Back in Tel Aviv, Netanyahu took the stand on Tuesdayat his corruption trial. He’s facing charges of fraud, bribery, and breach of trust that will demand six hours a day of testimony, three days a week for several weeks, raising questions about Bibi’s ability to run the country. Netanyahu called the charges “an ocean of absurdness,” while protesters outside labeled him a “Crime Minister.” Verdicts are not expected before 2026 and could be appealed to the Supreme Court. If convicted, the 75-year-old Netanyahu could face several years in prison.
HTS leader Ahmed Al-Shara, aka Abu Muhammad Al-Golani, overlooks Damascus, Syria, after the overthrow of Bashar Assad on Dec. 8, 2024.
What’s next for Syria: HTS appoints PM, Kurds caught in the crossfire, Israel makes a move
HTS appoints PM for Syria’s transitional government
The Shura Council of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, has appointed Mohammed al-Bashir as interim prime minister of its proposed 18-month transitional government of Syria.
Who is Mohammed Bashir? Born in 1983 in a village in Jabal Zawiya, an area of Idlib province, Bashir graduated from Aleppo University in 2007 with a bachelor's in electrical engineering, and from Idlib University with a degree in Sharia and Law in 2021. He also worked as an engineer for a gas plant affiliated with the Syrian Gas Company. Bashir is proficient in English and has been conducting press conferences for the SSE for the past year, as well as speaking with the media during the recent HTS campaign. It is not known if he is a hardliner or more moderate in his views.
What were Bashir’s previous roles with HTS? Bashir served for a year as head of the HTS-linked Syrian Salvation Government, or SSG, in Idlib in northwestern Syria, as well as Minister of Development and Humanitarian Affairs for the SSG under his predecessor there, Ali Keda. Before that, he was the director of Islamic Education at the SSG’s Ministry of Awqaf for two and a half years. According to his SSG profile, in Idlib Bashir focused on modernizing government processes using technology, encouraging investment, strengthening the economy, and “meeting the humanitarian needs” of displaced persons.
Concern for the Kurds
Will Syria’s Kurdish minority face renewed persecution – and possibly lose its autonomy - under an HTS government? While many cheer the ouster of Bashar Assad, there is concern about how they will be treated under the new Turkish-backed regime.
Who are the Kurds? Syria’s 2.5 million Kurds, primarily Sunni Muslims, comprise about 15% of Syria’s population. A third live in the Taurus Mountains near Aleppo, another third along the Turkish border in the Jazirah, around 10% near Jarabulus northeast of Aleppo with the remainder residing on the outskirts of Damascus. The Kurds were nomadic until the end of the Ottoman Empire when their population was divided across several nation-states. The Syrian government began stripping the Kurds of their Syrian nationality in 1962 and has conducted a systematic campaign of ethnic cleansing designed to erase their culture and identity.
In neighboring Turkey, Kurds comprise about 18% of the population and have been severely oppressed by successive governments, including the current administration of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Armed resistance by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party has resulted in over 40,000 deaths since the 1980s.
What is the Kurds’ geopolitical significance? The US supported the Kurds – and relied on them – in its fight against the Islamic State in the 2010s, and according to senior government officials, will continue to do so under the new regime. However, since the defeat of ISIS in 2019, the diminished US presence left many Kurds at the mercy of Turkish troops. Now, Turkey has announced that it will be reopening its border with Syria, to facilitate the return of Syrian refugees. An estimated 3 million refugees are currently living in Turkey – and facilitating their return could also provide an opportunity for Erdogan to eliminate the Kurdish presence on the border.
Israel’s buffer raises Egypt’s ire
On Sunday, Israel seized Syrian land near the Golan Heights, citing security concerns as Assad’s forces vacate the area and the new HTS government takes shape. Israel claims that its 1974 Separation of Forces Agreement with Syria is no longer in force with Assad’s ouster, creating a power vacuum in the area. Israel has sent tanks over the border into the buffer zone with Syria, calling the move temporary, limited, and aimed at ensuring Israel’s security. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the move is necessary and that Israel “will not allow any hostile force to establish itself on our border.”
What is Egypt saying? In response, Egypt has denounced the move as an opportunistic land grab, accusing Israel of exploiting the situation “to occupy more Syrian territories” and calling on the UN Security Council to take “a firm position towards the Israeli aggression on Syria.”
Egypt considers Israel’s control over the Golan Heights, which it captured from Syria in the 1967 Six-Day War, an occupation. Israel annexed the Heights in 1981, a move that has only been recognized by the US.
Top rebel commander Abu Mohammed al-Golani greets the crowd at Ummayad Mosque in Damascus after Syrian rebels announced that they have ousted President Bashar Assad, on Dec. 8, 2024.
What Assad’s fall means for Syria, the Middle East, Moscow and Washington
Syria’s government has fallen, precipitating change across the region and beyond. How did things get here, and where could they go?
Syria under Assad
The Syrian civil war, sparked by the Arab Spring of 2011, began as protests against the dictatorship of Bashar Assad, who took over from his father after Hafez Assad died in 2000. Known as “the Butcher of Damascus,” Bashar Assad killed and imprisoned thousands of political opponents and minority populations withthe support of Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah. The conflict killed over500,000 Syrians and displaced half the country’s population of 26 million people, prompting a refugee exodus to neighboring Turkey as well as Europe, the USA, and Canada.
Over the weekend, Assad fled with his family and was granted asylum in Moscow.
New rebel leadership
In just two weeks, insurgents seized control of major Syrian cities including Aleppo, Homs, Hama, and the capital, Damascus, and officially toppled Assad’s regime on Saturday. The main rebel force, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, is led by Abu Mohammad al-Golani, a former al-Qaida militant whoin the last decade has transformed from radical jihadist to ostensible pragmatist. Skeptics question the authenticity of his change of heart, however, andHTS is still designated as a terrorist group by many countries, including the United States.
Regional impacts
Iran: The collapse of Assad’s regime deals a significant blow to Iran’s "Axis of Resistance,"severing a crucial conduit for arms to Hezbollah in Lebanon and diminishing Tehran's influence in the region. This leaves it more vulnerable to anydirect conflict with Israel.
Lebanon: US envoy Amos Hochstein believes the Syrian war’s outcomewill have a “massive impact” on Lebanon as it reduces Iran’s ability to send weapons to Hezbollah. Syria’s instability could also worsen Lebanon’s fragile economic state.
Israel: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahuattributed Assad’s fall to Israel’s “forceful action against Hezbollah and Iran.” Israel has nonethelessdeployed forces into the Golan Heights to protect its border andstruck military targets inside Syria to prevent weapons from falling into the hands of hostile forces including Hezbollah.
Turkey: Turkey has backed rebel forces throughout Syria’s 13-year war as part of its geopolitical rivalry with Iran, and the outcome is seen as a win for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Celebrations have erupted among Syrians in Turkey over Assad’s fall, and it is estimated that up to 50% of refugees theremay choose to return.
Superpower Stressors
Russia: Since the war began, Vladimir Putin has provided political support, military aid, and direct military intervention. This loss weakens Russia’s strategic position in the Middle East, including jeopardizing control over its Syrian air base in Hmeimim and naval air base in Tartus.
Russia’s military commitments in Ukraine are also blamed forweakening Moscow’s ability to support Assad’s regime. Following his ouster, US President-elect Donald Trumpcalled on Moscow for “an immediate ceasefire” in Ukraine.
The United States: The US has 900 troops in eastern Syria fighting against the re-establishment of the Islamic State and will remain there “to ensure [the group’s] enduring defeat, to ensure the secure detention of ISIS fighters and the repatriation of displaced persons,"according to Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East Daniel Shapiro. Under President Barack Obama, the US authorized thousands of airstrikes on Syria and Iraq starting in 2014 as part ofOperation Inherent Resolve, part of an international effort to destroy the Islamic State.
This time around, US President-elect Donald Trumpposted to Truth Social on Saturday that the US “SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO” with the conflict in Syria. But Washington doesn’t appear to be listening: On Sunday, the US launched dozens of precision airstrikes against ISIS camps and operatives based in Central Syria, according to US Central Command.
And at a press conference on Sunday, US President Joe Biden not only took credit for helping topple the Assad regime through its sanctions against Syria and support for Israel’s efforts against Hezbollah, but he said the US will support Syria's neighbors, ensure stability in eastern Syria, protect against the Islamic State, and engage in a UN-led process to transition from Assad to an independent, sovereign Syria with a new constitution.
However, Washington will also “remain vigilant,” Biden added, noting that while the rebel groups that took down Assad “are saying the right things now,” the US “will assess not just their words but their actions.”
President-elect Donald Trump attends a campaign event, in Allentown, Pennsylvania, U.S., October 29, 2024.
Trump threatens military intervention in the Middle East over Israeli hostages
On Monday, President-elect Donald Trumpposted on social media that “if the [Israeli] hostages are not released prior to January 20, 2025, the date that I proudly assume Office as President of the United States, there will be ALL HELL TO PAY in the Middle East.”
Quite a threat to issue to an entire region, particularly given Americans’ skepticism of foreign involvement in overseas conflicts. But it’s a low-probability, high-risk sort of scenario, given that Trump did not specify who he would attack or how.
Meanwhile, at least 97 hostages or their remains are still in Gaza, and the Israeli military believes at least 35 of that group are dead. Hamas is also believed to be holding two corpses of Israeli soldiers killed a decade ago, and two living Israelis captured in 2014 and 2015.
While Trump’s threat is unlikely to lead to imminent hostage releases, we’ll be watching for any movement.
Rebel factions successfully seized control of the city of Aleppo, Syria, on November 30, 2024, after intense clashes and fierce battles with Assad regime forces.
Syrian rebels reignite war, make advances in Aleppo
Anti-government forces opposed to Syrian President Bashar Assad launched a shock attack on the largest city, Aleppo, on Saturday. Amid the ongoing fighting, rebels have seized the city’s airport and military academy and struck the entrance of Aleppo University Hospital,killing 12 civilians and injuring 23 others. Led by the Salafi jihadi group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham — a terrorist organization with past ties to al-Qaida, now often but not always backed by Turkey – insurgents claim to control territory across Hama, Idlib, and Aleppo provinces. They are demanding that US-aligned Kurdish forces retreat from neighborhoods they hold in Aleppo.
Assad has ordered his forces to counterattack and met with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Damascus on Sunday. Russia also expressed support for its ally and claimed its forces in Syria had engaged with the rebels.
Why now? Israel’s destruction of Hezbollah in Lebanon seems to have helped tip the balance, according to Eurasia Group expert Emre Peker.
“HTS has been observing the shifting regional dynamics and agitating to take advantage of Assad’s relative weakness for months. With Russia preoccupied with Ukraine and Iran and its proxies effectively targeted by Israel, HTS felt the time was ripe to strike,” he said.
Peker elaborated that Ankara will back the rebels as long as their offensive also serves Turkish interests, whileRussia has lent what military support it can to Assad. “Erdogan will not want to oust Assad, rather to weaken him to both normalize Turkey-Syria relations and pave the way for a settlement to the 13-year-old Syrian civil war,” he said.
What about the US? The conflict creates a dilemma for Washington which under President Barack Obama supported rebel groups fighting Assad’s brutal dictatorship, but HTS’s fundamentalist roots are cause for concern. Asli Aydintasbas, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution, noted the quandary: “Should [the US] be cheering the opposition taking over Syria’s second-largest city Aleppo, or should they actually worry about the city falling under Islamist rule?”
So far,the Biden administration has distanced itself from the offensive, calling for de-escalation and a political solution – but we’re watching how long Washington can stay on the sidelines if the conflict escalates.
FILE PHOTO: Israel's Defence Minister Moshe Yaalon gives a statement to the press at the Kirya Army base in Tel Aviv, Israel May 20, 2016.
Former Israeli defense minister accuses government of war crimes; UNWRA pauses aid
Former Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon on Sunday accused Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government of committing war crimes and ethnic cleansing in Gaza. Yaalon, who served under Netanyahu from 2013-16, but has criticized him ever since, claimed that far-right members of the cabinet aim to displace Palestinians in northern Gaza to re-establish Jewish settlements. He alsotold the Reshet Bet radio station that IDF commanders reached out to him “expressing fear about what’s happening there.”
Yaalon’s statements were quickly condemned by Netanyahu allies as “slanderous lies.” But they come at a sensitive time, following the International Criminal Court’s recentissuing of arrest warrants for Netanyahu and former defense chief Yoav Gallant for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza. Gallant called Yaalon’s statements “a lie that aids our enemy and harms Israel,”and said the Israeli military “acted according to the highest standards that can be applied in the complex and difficult war that was imposed on us.”
UNWRA suspends aid. Meanwhile, the United Nations Relief and Works Agencysuspended humanitarian aid deliveries to Gaza on Sunday after armed gangs seized food supplies twice in recent weeks. “This difficult decision comes at a time when hunger is rapidly deepening,”said UNWRA Commissioner-General Philippe Lazzarini, calling on Israel to ensure the safety of aid workers and supplies and criticizing its “restrictive policies.” In response, Israeli officials denied hindering humanitarian relief andblamed delays on the UN.US President Joe Biden delivers remarks in the Rose Garden of the White House in Washington after Israel and Lebanon accepted a ceasefire deal on Nov. 26, 2024.
Israel agrees to Lebanon ceasefire, Biden confirms
The Israeli Security Cabinet has approved a ceasefire for Lebanon, President Joe Bidenannounced on Tuesday, welcoming the opportunity to start reestablishing peace in the Middle East. “Under the deal reached today, effective at 4 a.m. tomorrow local time, the fighting across the Lebanese-Israeli border will end,” Biden said.
While earlier reports suggested the US-brokered agreement would involve a 60-day transition period to pave the way toward a more lasting peace, Biden emphasized that the truce is meant to be permanent. “What is left of Hezbollah and other terrorist organizations will not be allowed — I emphasize, will not be allowed — to threaten the security of Israel again,” he said.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had urged approval of the deal, and it was passed “with a majority of 10 ministers in favor and one opposed,” his office said just before Biden announced the news.
The Israeli leader said it was the right time for a ceasefire because it would isolate Hamas, give Israel’s military space to regroup and resupply, and allow the Jewish state to focus more on the threat from Iran.
In the hours leading up to Netanyahu’s announcement on Tuesday, Israel continued to pound Lebanon with airstrikes. But 13 months of fighting ended early Wednesday as the ceasefire took hold, and thousands of displaced Lebanese civilians have begun returning to their homes in the South.
The US pushed hard for the agreement and while the Biden administration is taking credit, the deal could provide a boost for Donald Trump as he enters the White House in January. Trump — who has a close relationship with Bibi — has promised to bring peace to the region, and his administration will soon be on deck with efforts for a more permanent peace between Israel and Hezbollah, and perhaps a resolution for Gaza and the remaining hostages.
In the meantime, we’ll be watching to see if the truce holds as the region remains on edge with the war in Gaza raging on amid rising tensions between Israel and Iran.
President-elect Donald Trump attends the America First Policy Institute gala at Mar-A-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida, on Nov. 14, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Trump talks tough tariffs, Opposition wins in Uruguay, DHL plane crashes in Lithuania, Israeli drone targeted journalists, Ireland asylum claims spike
25: President-elect Donald Trump took aim at Canada and Mexico via Truth Social on Monday, posting about his plan to charge the countries — currently America’s No. 1 & No. 2 trading partners, — a whopping 25% tariff on all products entering the US. The tariff would be enacted on Jan. 20, 2025, Trump said, and would “remain in effect until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country!” He then posted that he would charge China, where the precursor chemicals to fentanyl are made, “an additional 10% tariff, above any additional Tariffs, on all of their many products coming into the United States of America.”
49: Uruguay’s left-wing opposition leader Yamandú Orsiwon the small South American country’s presidential election with 49% of the vote in a neck-and-neck runoff contest on Sunday. It was yet another rebuke of an incumbent party — the theme of many global elections this year — but not to worry: Uruguay is remarkably stable, and Orsi is a moderate with no radical plans.
1: One crew member died on Monday when a DHL cargo flight crashed during its attempted landing in Vilnius, Lithuania, with surveillance video showing a huge ball of flames as the plane went down. Lithuanian officials said they could not rule out whether Russia played a role in the crash, following months of suspicions over Moscow’s possible role in other cases of sabotage against the German shipping giant. Germany, meanwhile, is sending investigators to Vilnius to aid with the probe.
3: Human Rights Watch has determined that an Israeli drone strike that killed three journalists in Lebanon last month was most likely a deliberate attack on civilians, which is a war crime. More than 3,500 people in Lebanon have died amid Israel’s invasion, and more than 1 million have been displaced from their homes in the 5.3-million-strong country.
300: Asylum applications in Ireland have spiked 300% so far this year – with a fourfold increase from Nigeria – compared to last. The rise has been driven by tougher immigration stances in the UK, including a quixotic plan to house asylum-seekers in Rwanda. The uptick is becoming a political issue in Ireland, with voters increasingly concerned by the impact of increased migration on scarce housing.