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Israelis push Netanyahu for cease-fire after Hamas kills hostages
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: A Quick Take to kick off your week and the work year. I want to talk about the Middle East and big demonstrations, the largest social dissent we have seen since the October 7th terror attacks, since the war in Gaza has started in Israel. And the proximate reason for this was the Hamas execution of six Israeli hostages in Rafah, likely before those positions were overrun by Israeli Defense Forces. The broader point anger with the way that Prime Minister Netanyahu is continuing to prosecute the war.
And it's a big deal, it's a general strike of the largest labor union in Israel, just as everyone in Israel is coming back from vacation. And so large scale action and certainly has an impact on the economy. The anger in particular with demanding a cease-fire deal and demanding the release of the hostages who have been held now for almost a year.
This has not been seen to be an adequate priority of the Prime Minister by a majority of Israeli citizens. This is not because there are large numbers of Israelis that are in favor of a two-state solution. For the Palestinians, that's not the case. It's certainly not the case that there's any sympathy for Hamas or that the Israelis are angry that a lot of Palestinians have gotten killed. That is not the issue either. It is that they want an end of the fighting, they want the hostages back, and they want a deal done, and they're tired of the way this war has been prosecuted, especially because the Israeli defense minister, the head of the Shin Bet, other senior military officials have broken themselves with the Israeli Prime Minister and said that they do not support what the Israeli leadership is pushing for on the ground in Gaza.
There are other fights about an Israeli budget. There's the long-standing fight that was before October 7th on the independence of the Israeli judiciary itself, very strong in Israel. There's the question of enlistment and the exceptions for the Hasidim, for the far-right Israeli ultra-Orthodox, all of these things in a very divided, very fragmented Israeli political system are creating plenty of folks that are angry with the Prime Minister, but he is still there and there is no way in the near term to take him out.
Now, I don't think this labor union strike matters all that much. It was not on the basis of a labor dispute, it was a political action. And in that regard, the Israeli government took them to court. The courts ruled that they had to shut that action down. The Labor Union agreed and shut it down. There's a lot of Likud, Netanyahu's party, oriented political leaders among the labor union's leadership and so it is unlikely, I think that you're going to see a lot more of this over the coming weeks and months, but you could still see a lot more social instability, a lot more unrest. And now that you've had hundreds of thousands on the streets, which had not been occurring, while the war is on, you've kind of taken off this restriction on, well, as long as there's a war, we all need to be hanging together. We need to be supporting this Israeli war cabinet. The war cabinet's had resignations and society is back to its fractious and very loud and boisterous self in Israel.
Now, the Knesset is coming back in session, the Israeli Parliament in October, and as that happens, there's going to be a lot more fighting against Netanyahu's position, and you could possibly see a no-confidence vote to bring down his government. One of the reasons why we don't have a cease-fire is because Netanyahu understands that the way he stays in power is by keeping his coalition intact with the far right, and they strongly oppose and have consistently strongly opposed any agreement that would allow for long-term ending of fighting on the ground in Gaza. They also want continued control, some level of Israeli occupation over Gaza. They don't want self-governance of the Palestinians there. And again, we're not talking about Hamas, we're talking about any Palestinian organization.
That is, politically, you have to say that Netanyahu has done an extraordinary job in being able, a masterful job politically, in being able to maintain his position under such an extraordinary level of pressure. And with such unpopularity among the Israeli population. More broadly, there's the fact that the United States looks feckless on this issue. Biden has now come out and said that Netanyahu is not doing enough for a cease-fire. And Netanyahu's response was extremely strong, saying, publicly, both Biden and the Secretary of State and others have consistently and repeatedly said that the Israelis have accepted extremely generous terms for Hamas, it's Hamas that's refused and now Biden's saying that they're not doing enough, what's changed? Only that six hostages have been executed, and after that you're putting more pressure on Bibi. You can imagine that that makes Biden look extremely weak. And the issue here is that Biden has not been willing to be critical of Netanyahu publicly, he's only put a little bit of pressure on the Israeli leadership privately, and that makes him look weak publicly when Netanyahu makes those claims.
All of the efforts to try to get a cease-fire by the United States are going nowhere, in part because Hamas refuses the terms, and in part because the terms that the US says Netanyahu accepts he doesn't really accept when they are having private discussions. And so the US is trying to paper over a chasm between the two fighting sides. Everybody else wants to paper that over too. I mean, if you look at who wants a deal here, you would say the majority of the Israeli population, the Gulf States, the Egyptians, the Europeans, heck, the Chinese and the United States, but not Bibi's government and not Hamas.
And that's why we continue to have this level of fighting. That's also why we continue to have the Houthis attacking oil tankers, including a Saudi-flagged tanker, clearly by mistake, in the last 24 hours in the Red Sea. You've got American military, UK military, others in operation across the Gulf, and yet incapable of preventing this ragtag group of militants from Yemen to continue to disrupt global supply chain. You continue to have militants in the So-called Iranian-led Axis of Resistance attacking US and other allied targets across the region. And so it's very hard to see this war coming to an end. It's very hard to see Netanyahu leaving power in the near term. It's certainly hard to see any option for the Palestinians that would de-radicalize them in the near future.
Kamala Harris has been doing her best to say very little on this issue because of course, she is not in a good position to try to carry water for a policy that clearly has failed for the Biden administration heretofore. And that's specifically to end the fighting, to get the hostages freed, to create at least a temporary but hopefully longer-term cease-fire and to create a two-state solution. None of the things that the Biden administration has said that they want on the ground in the region are happening, and that means that Kamala has a lot of vulnerability on that policy. That's interesting because where she would clearly like to be would be in coordination with US allies. And one of the reasons why US policy on Ukraine has been much more successful in the Middle East is because it's been in lockstep with everyone in NATO, sometimes moving too slowly, but nonetheless, all these countries are agreeing on the sanctions, on the diplomatic efforts, on the military support for the Ukrainians, the training, the intelligence all being done together.
That's not true at all. You've got the new Labour government in the UK now saying that a number of weapons systems being provided to Israel would be likely used in the commission of war crimes by the IDF, and so the UK government has said that those specific weapons systems will no longer be provided to Israel. Now, most weapons systems will still be provided by the UK, so it's not like the reality of UK policy and US policy towards Israel are all that different. This is a fig leaf by the Brits, but the point is these countries are all freelancing. They're making policies by themselves, that makes it much easier for the Israelis to focus on the United States and to also take the actions they want to. If you had a more coordinated policy by the United States and all of their allies on Israel, it would be a strong policy and it would be a policy that would protect those countries politically to a much greater degree.
That's not where the US or NATO is right now. I do think that's something that Harris would want to accomplish if she were to become president come January, but we are still many months away from that possibility.
So anyway, a lot going on right now in the Middle East, certainly not working out in America's favor and not working out in the Israelis' or the Palestinians' either. That's it for me, and I'll talk to you all real soon.
Palestinians, who fled the eastern part of Khan Younis after they were ordered by Israeli army to evacuate their neighborhoods, make their way, amid Israel-Hamas conflict, in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip July 2, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Fleeing Khan Younis, Freed hostage’s mom dies, Haiti’s child displacement crisis, Biden’s heat safety plan, Cambodian arrests, Beryl heads for Jamaica
250,000: The Israeli Defense Forces ordered the evacuation of250,000 Palestinians from the southern Gazan city of Khan Younis on Monday – an untold number have fled by any means possible – before launching strikes overnight in response to rocket attacks on Israel from inside the city. Israeli officials warn that Hamas continues to use Palestinian civilians as human shields.
3: The mother of rescued Israeli hostage Noa Argamani has succumbed to brain cancer justthree weeks after her daughter was freed in a raid on a Hamas hideout in Gaza. Liora Argamani, who was 61, had made public pleas after Oct. 7 for her daughter to be returned so that she could see her again before she died.
300,000: The UN Children’s Agency says that gang violence in Haiti has forced more than300,000 children from their homes since March. Meanwhile, the gangs have said they are gearing up for a war against the Kenyan police mission, which arrived in Haiti this past week.
35 million: The Biden administration has proposed regulations that will require employers to provide workers with rest areas and water when the heat index reaches 80 degrees or higher. This rule could apply to about 35 million Americans who work both indoors and outdoors.
10: A court in Cambodia has sentenced10 activists from a youth-led environmental group to between six and eight years in jail following charges of plotting against the government. Three of the activists were also convicted of insulting the king.6: The Atlantic’s first hurricane of the season, Beryl, has wreaked destruction in Grenada, Venezuela, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines, killing at least six people. The storm is now moving toward Jamaica, where it is “expected to bring life-threatening winds and storm surge to Jamaica,” according to the hurricane center.
Family members, friends, and supporters of Israelis taken hostage on Oct. 7 by Hamas marched from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. They're seen here in Jerusalem on Nov. 18, 2023.
Why Israel’s war aims may “break Israeli society”: a conversation with Israeli hostage negotiator Gershon Baskin
There aren’t many people who have sat down with Hamas to negotiate hostage releases. One of them is Gershon Baskin, a Jerusalem-based activist and writer who is the Middle East Director of the International Communities Organisation, a human rights and conflict resolution group. In 2011, Baskin negotiated the release of an Israeli soldier, Gilad Shalit, who had been kidnapped by Hamas five years earlier.
Now, with more than 200 Israeli hostages still being held in the Gaza Strip while Israeli forces bombard the enclave in an effort to eradicate Hamas, I spoke with Baskin about what it would take to release those captives, what it’s like to negotiate with Hamas, and whether there is still any hope for peace after what has happened over the last month.
Our conversation has been lightly edited for length and clarity. You can watch part of the interview here.
Gershon, what is the biggest obstacle to securing the release of the more than 200 Israelis who are still held in Gaza?
There are a lot of main obstacles. One is that we're in an acute, active war with Hamas, where the primary objective of the state of Israel is to eliminate Hamas as a power which can govern the Gaza Strip and continue to threaten Israel.
But at the same time, Hamas is holding about 240 Israeli civilians, women, children, infants, elderly people, sick and wounded. We don't even know their condition, and there's no direct contact between the two sides, which means that we have to use third parties to negotiate, each having their own interest and stake in the whole situation on the ground.
So there are a million obstacles. I mean, how do you fight a war against someone that you're aiming to destroy, and at the same time negotiate with them on the humanitarian release of people that they're holding?
Meaning, the Israeli government’s objectives of crushing Hamas and freeing the hostages are in conflict with each other?
They are. It's very difficult to do both, and I think we have a matter of days left for a negotiated agreement to release at least part of the hostages: the women, the children, and the elderly.
It's believed that [the hostages] are in the southern half of Gaza – and they're beginning the attack on the southern part of Gaza now.
If there is no negotiated agreement, the Israeli special forces will have to go on search and rescue missions instead.
I assume that some of those will be successful and some will not be successful, and it's very risky for the lives of soldiers – but Israel cannot leave them behind.
Have you been involved at all in the current negotiations?
I was involved, unofficially of course, at the very beginning, connecting the pieces. We provided telephone numbers to the Qataris of ministers in the Israeli government, and to ministers in the Israeli government of those in Qatar. I've also been in touch with five different people in Hamas, none of whom are part of the military command or are decision-makers in this mission to bring the hostages home.
What is your sense of what Hamas wants?
The first thing they want right now is a cease-fire. They believe that the longer they can prolong a cease-fire, the more international pressure will be put on Israel to end the war without completing the mission of eliminating Hamas’ ability to govern.
The second thing that they want is the release of all the Palestinian prisoners in Israel. There are about 7,000 Palestinian prisoners in Israel, including 559 people who are convicted of murdering Israelis and serving life sentences. So we're dealing with a large number of people who have killed Israelis.
About 30% of the Palestinian prisoners are members of Hamas. Only about 400 of them are from Gaza, the majority are from the West Bank. And the big question is, is any deal possible that would release all the prisoners as Hamas wants?
It seems to me that the only way of getting all the hostages back alive safely is through a deal of “all for all.” But that doesn't seem possible, knowing the construct of the Israeli government and the mood of the Israeli people.
Talk to me a little bit about that. What is your sense of what the Israeli side wants or is able to concede in any deal with Hamas right now?
Well, it's very clear that the Israelis want all the hostages returned. I think that what’s being negotiated is called a “humanitarian release” of women, children, and the elderly. In exchange for that, Israel is willing to grant a three to five-day ceasefire.
Israel is probably also willing to release at least the women Palestinian prisoners and those under the age of 18.
Before Oct. 7, there were 43 [Palestinian] women prisoners and about 190 minors. Israel might be willing to release some others as well, but they are very unlikely to release people who have murdered Israelis, and those are the ones that Hamas wants most.
In the past, the Israeli government has released huge numbers of Palestinian prisoners in exchange for quite small numbers of Israeli hostages. The deal you negotiated to free Gilad Shalit, for example, involved more than a 1,000 jailed Palestinians. Why is that, and how does it shape what Israel is willing to do in a situation like this?
There were 1,027 prisoners released [in the Shalit deal], including more than 300 who had killed Israelis, including four people who killed my wife's cousin. So this is really personal, in fact.
There's an ethos in Israel that we don't leave anyone behind. The sense is that in order for Israel to have a “people's army” as it believes that it has, we have to make good on the promise that we don't leave anyone behind.
And that was something that was well-known when Gilad Shalit was abducted in June of 2006. It took five years of pressure on the Israeli government of Benjamin Netanyahu, who was then prime minister as well, to make the deal. And in the end, Netanyahu – who wrote the book on not negotiating with terrorists – gave in and negotiated with terrorists and made this big prisoner release.
Today this is an entirely unprecedented situation. Most of the hostages are infants, eight- or nine-month-old babies, senior citizens in their eighties, and obviously Israel is willing to pay a high price for their release, but not the price that Hamas wants.
This is very problematic because should the public in Israel understand that Israel is willing to sacrifice the hostages in order to complete the military mission of dismantling Hamas – as some of the right-wing members of Netanyahu's governments have said they want to do – I think this would break Israeli society in a moral way that it would be impossible to heal.
It would take generations to heal the pain and the belief that the government did not do everything possible to save these hostages.
As we're speaking today, there are rumors of a possible hostage deal in the works. What have you heard, and what do you make of it?
My word of advice on everything that we hear about the negotiations and possible deals is to ignore it. These leaks in the negotiations about possible deals are psychological warfare. There are no leaks. These are highly secretive negotiations taking place in closed rooms with very few people in the inner circle. When there is a deal, it will be announced, it will be formally known. All the rest is just noise.
Let me ask you about your experience of negotiating with Hamas. How did you establish a rapport in those talks?
The main thing that worked in the past was time. Time to develop a relationship primarily between myself and my interlocutor, who was Ghazi Hamad, who has been the spokesperson of this [current] war for Hamas. And he crossed that line between humanity and what's beyond humanity in some of the statements that he's made since being the spokesperson for this war.
But Ghazi and I have known each other for years. Seventeen years, in fact. We've spoken more than a thousand times. We met face-to-face four times. We've carried on discussions through wartime and through peacetime – or not “peacetime,” so much as through calm periods.
We've talked about life and family and friends and what our purpose is on this planet. In the end, it was the trust that developed between us that enabled us to expose all of our cards and get away from the traditional Middle East zero-sum bazaar negotiations to more of a sharing type of negotiation, where both sides could get most of what they wanted – or most of what the other could give.
I'm sort of curious about the basic details of what happens in the room when you sit down for a hostage negotiation with Hamas? Like, both sides show up, they sit down … then what? Who speaks first? Do they serve coffee? What happens?
Most of it wasn't done in a room. Most of our negotiations were done by telephone, by SMS. We didn't have WhatsApp in those days. We did some Skype phone calls. We did meet face-to-face several times, twice in Gaza and twice in Egypt.
We produced a document in mid-July, 2011. The negotiations then moved to Egypt, and the Egyptian military intelligence took over those negotiations. And in the final days when they were going over the list of names [of Palestinian prisoners to be released by Israel], the Hamas negotiating team was in one room at an intelligence base in Cairo, and the Israeli team was in another room, and the Egyptian intelligence guys were going back and forth between the two rooms.
The Israelis and the Hamas people never actually sat together, never shook a hand together. The Israeli side demanded that the Hamas side sign the paper that was agreed upon, and the Egyptians forced Hamas to sign the paper.
They were reluctant to sign it like that, but those are the kinds of negotiations that take place when enemies don't talk to each other, when they won't look each other in the eye.
When you were sitting across from Ghazi Hamad, knowing that you were responsible for negotiating the release of a living human being, what went through your head? Were you nervous? Scared? What's it like?
I tried to develop the kind of rapport that you would have with anyone. I spent time talking to him, for him to tell me his life story, where he comes from, his family, his history, his children, what he believes in life.
We used to joke a lot because he's a religious Muslim and I'm a secular atheist, and he would always joke at the end of our phone calls that he would pray for me and I would say “inshallah” [Arabic: God willing!].
Was there a moment in your interactions with Hamad that you recall thinking that you had reached a special level of empathy or understanding?
On the day of the exchange in October 2011, as the prisoners were being released to buses that would take them to the border crossing, we spoke to each other around seven o'clock in the morning. We were very happy and pleased and we congratulated each other and Ghazi, maybe it was a slip of the tongue, but he said, “next time we'll negotiate peace!”
He never repeated that sentence, but it was a moment of happiness, of achievement, of recognizing that we had succeeded in doing the impossible.
You have been active on the Israeli left for many years, advocating for dialogue, for peace, for a two-state solution. Meanwhile, Israel has been moving rightward for more than 20 years. In the wake of Oct. 7, what is the path forward?
For Israelis, this is the most traumatic event that [has] happened since the Holocaust. For the Palestinians, this is the most traumatic event since the 1948 nakba [Arabic: “catastrophe,” when 700,000 Palestinians fled or were driven from their homes in the 1948 Arab-Israeli war.]
We will never forget what happened, what they did to us, what we did to them. This will never be erased from our collective memories, but there is a possibility that at the end of this, we will all make our leaders pay for where they brought us, and we will have what I've been calling our Belfast moment, recognizing that in Belfast, it was not a moment, it was a process.
But there came a time in Northern Ireland when the people of Northern Ireland said, “No more – we're tired of killing each other.”
Watch Alex Kliment's interview with Gershon Baskin, which aired in a recent episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer.
Dealing with Hamas: What a former hostage negotiator learned | GZERO MediaWhat's it like to negotiate directly with Hamas? ...