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Supporters of Hamas wave their green flags during a celebration marking the 35th anniversary of the founding of Hamas in Gaza City in December 2022.
Palestinian factions near deal to govern Gaza
Following talks in Cairo brokered by Egypt, the two rival factions agreed the committee would also administer the Palestinian side of the Rafah checkpoint on the border with Egypt. The proposal was submitted to the Palestinian authority in the West Bank for approval on Tuesday.
Would Israel and the US accept the deal? Israel insists it must dismantle Hamas to ensure the security of the Jewish state – which could make the deal a nonstarter. Washington supports a revitalized Palestinian Authority to govern Gaza and the West Bank.
Meanwhile in Lebanon, Israelvowed to “penetrate deeper” into Lebanese territory if the tenuous ceasefire between the two nations collapses. On Monday, French President Emmanuel Macron and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman signed a strategic partnership designed to strengthen bilateral ties and jointly called for Lebanon to hold long-delayed presidential elections.President-elect Donald Trump attends a campaign event, in Allentown, Pennsylvania, U.S., October 29, 2024.
Trump threatens military intervention in the Middle East over Israeli hostages
On Monday, President-elect Donald Trumpposted on social media that “if the [Israeli] hostages are not released prior to January 20, 2025, the date that I proudly assume Office as President of the United States, there will be ALL HELL TO PAY in the Middle East.”
Quite a threat to issue to an entire region, particularly given Americans’ skepticism of foreign involvement in overseas conflicts. But it’s a low-probability, high-risk sort of scenario, given that Trump did not specify who he would attack or how.
Meanwhile, at least 97 hostages or their remains are still in Gaza, and the Israeli military believes at least 35 of that group are dead. Hamas is also believed to be holding two corpses of Israeli soldiers killed a decade ago, and two living Israelis captured in 2014 and 2015.
While Trump’s threat is unlikely to lead to imminent hostage releases, we’ll be watching for any movement.
FILE PHOTO: Israel's Defence Minister Moshe Yaalon gives a statement to the press at the Kirya Army base in Tel Aviv, Israel May 20, 2016.
Former Israeli defense minister accuses government of war crimes; UNWRA pauses aid
Former Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon on Sunday accused Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government of committing war crimes and ethnic cleansing in Gaza. Yaalon, who served under Netanyahu from 2013-16, but has criticized him ever since, claimed that far-right members of the cabinet aim to displace Palestinians in northern Gaza to re-establish Jewish settlements. He alsotold the Reshet Bet radio station that IDF commanders reached out to him “expressing fear about what’s happening there.”
Yaalon’s statements were quickly condemned by Netanyahu allies as “slanderous lies.” But they come at a sensitive time, following the International Criminal Court’s recentissuing of arrest warrants for Netanyahu and former defense chief Yoav Gallant for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza. Gallant called Yaalon’s statements “a lie that aids our enemy and harms Israel,”and said the Israeli military “acted according to the highest standards that can be applied in the complex and difficult war that was imposed on us.”
UNWRA suspends aid. Meanwhile, the United Nations Relief and Works Agencysuspended humanitarian aid deliveries to Gaza on Sunday after armed gangs seized food supplies twice in recent weeks. “This difficult decision comes at a time when hunger is rapidly deepening,”said UNWRA Commissioner-General Philippe Lazzarini, calling on Israel to ensure the safety of aid workers and supplies and criticizing its “restrictive policies.” In response, Israeli officials denied hindering humanitarian relief andblamed delays on the UN.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant attend a ceremony for the 70th cohort of military combat officers, at an army base near Mitzpe Ramon, Israel, October 31, 2024.
ICC warrants for Bibi, Gallant will test respect for international law
The International Criminal Court on Thursday issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, accusing them of “crimes against humanity and war crimes” in Gaza — including using “starvation as a method of warfare” and “intentionally directing an attack against the civilian population.”
The court also issued a warrant for Mohammed Deif, the head of Hamas’ armed wing who Israel says was killed in an airstrike. The ICC said it’s not in a position to determine if Deif is dead.
The warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant are emblematic of the growing schism between Israel and the international community amid the Gaza war, and perhaps the sharpest rebuke yet of the Jewish state’s prosecution of the conflict. The move came as the death toll in Gaza surpassed 44,000, according to Palestinian officials.
Will Netanyahu be arrested? Not in Israel or the US, neither of which belongs to the ICC or recognizes its authority. Both countries swiftly condemned the court over the warrants.
The ICC also doesn’t have a police force and relies on member states to make arrests — and the court doesn’t try defendants in absentia. But Netanyahu and Gallant could potentially be arrested and tried if they travel to any of the 124 countries that are ICC member states, including the entire EU.
These warrants will pose a test for Israel’s Western allies if Netanyahu ever plans to visit, and raises questions over how they should interact with the Israeli leader more generally.
The EU’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, said the ICC arrest warrants are “binding” on all countries in the bloc given they’re party to the Rome Statute — the international treaty that established the court. Canada and several European countries have already signaled they’ll abide by the warrants.
We’ll be watching for signs of how these countries plan to handle relations with Netanyahu moving forward — and whether they’ll choose maintaining close ties with Israel over upholding international law.
Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian meets with Hamas leader Khaled Mashal, in Doha, Qatar, on Oct. 2, 2024.
Qatar suspends Hamas-Israel mediation efforts
The Gulf Arab emirate announced this weekend it would stop mediating efforts to broker a cease-fire and hostage release deal between Hamas and Israel until “the parties show their willingness and seriousness to end the brutal war.”
For months, talks have failed, despite efforts by the US, Qatar, and Egypt. Hamas demands a permanent cease-fire and complete withdrawal of Israeli troops in exchange for the release of the remaining hostages, while Israel, which has sworn to destroy Hamas, insists on only a temporary truce and the right to occupy the enclave indefinitely.
Relatedly, reports suggested the Qataris, under US pressure, have asked Hamas political leaders to leave the kingdom, where they have enjoyed a safe haven for more than a decade.
Qatar, a US ally, has long served as a channel for talks with Hamas and other groups listed as terror organizations by the West.
Whether Qatar’s gambit will revive productive talks remains to be seen, but with Benjamin Netanyahu now comfortably awaiting the return of his close ally Donald Trump to the White House, it may put more pressure on Hamas than on the Israelis.
While the group could relocate elsewhere, there are no viable options that would offer channels to the West as direct as Qatar’s. Meanwhile, Trump, who has promised to “end” the conflict, has reportedly spoken with Netanyahu at least three times since the election alone.
For a broader look at how Trump 2.0 might shake up US foreign policy, including on the Middle East, see our recent report here.Palestinians gather to receive aid outside an UNRWA warehouse earlier this month in Gaza.
Israel bans main Gaza aid agency despite warnings from US
The Israeli Parliament on Monday voted to ban the UN agency for Palestinian refugees, UNRWA, from operating in its territory — despite warnings from the Biden administration that doing so could impact US policy toward Israel. The Knesset even voted to designate UNRWA a terror group and to prohibit Israeli authorities from having contact with the agency.
UNRWA is the main humanitarian agency in Gaza, and this could impact millions of people who depend on it for aid. Critics of the legislation, which includes allies of the Jewish state, have expressed concern it will exacerbate the already dire humanitarian crisis in Gaza, where the local health ministry now says over 43,000 Palestinians have died amid the war over the past year. Foreign ministers from Canada, Australia, France, Germany, Japan, South Korea, and the UK on Monday expressed “grave concern” over the Israeli move.
This comes roughly two weeks after Washington told Israel it had 30 days to improve the humanitarian situation in Gaza or risk cuts to military support from the US.
State Department spokesperson Matthew Millersaid Monday that the US urges Israel not to implement the legislation, underscoring that UNRWA is playing an “irreplaceable role right now in Gaza, where they’re on the front lines of getting humanitarian assistance to the people they need it.” Miller said there’s nothing that can replace UNRWA amid the current crisis.
Israel accuses UNRWA of involvement in the Oct. 7 attack, which killed roughly 1,200 in Israel and saw hundreds of hostages taken. A UN investigation that concluded in August said nine UNRWA employees may have been involved in the attack and all were fired. Several countries suspended funding to UNRWA over the allegations, but most have since restored funding, but not the US.
We’ll be watching to see how this legislation, which won’t take effect for 90 days, impacts the US-Israel relationship.
Meanwhile, across the border, Hezbollah has elected Naim Kassem to succeed Hassan Nasrallah as secretary general after Nasrallah was killed in September.
Kassem was already one of the group's leading spokesmen, often conducting interviews with foreign media. Critics say he lacks his predecessor's gravitas, but the man considered most likely to succeed Nasrallah, Hashem Safieddine, was also killed in recent weeks as Israel ramps up its efforts to dismantle Hezbollah.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during a memorial ceremony of the Hamas Oct. 7 attack at the Mount Herzl military cemetery in Jerusalem on Oct. 27, 2024, where he was heckled by family members victims.
Calculated hit: Israel strikes Iranian military sites, avoids energy infrastructure
Iran and Israel appear to be standing down from further conflict after Israel struck military targets near Tehran but did not inflict damage on the country’s energy infrastructure. The Saturday morning attacks killed four soldiers and came in retaliation for Iran’s Oct. 1 ballistic missile assault on Israel, which was a response toIsrael taking out top Hezbollah leaders in Lebanon in September.
Responding in measured tone. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said the Israeli strikes must “neither be downplayed nor exaggerated.” Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Sunday that Tehran was not looking for war with Israel but would respond “appropriately” and “defend the rights of our nation and country.”
Meanwhile, Iraq's government on Monday lodged a protest with the UN Security Council over Israel's use of Iraqi airspace to attack Iran.
Weekend at Bibi’s. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had both a good and bad weekend. The presiding judge of an International Criminal Court panel reviewing arrest warrant requests for Netanyahu, his defense minister, and senior Hamas leaders has been replaced due to medical reasons, which coulddelay proceedings. But Netanyahu was also heckled on Sunday by families of the victims of Hamas’ Oct. 7 attacks during a speech marking the tragedy in Jerusalem.
Earlier in the day, a truck rammed into a group of retirees at a bus stop near an Israeli military base north of the capital, killing one and injuring over 30 in a suspected terror attack. The incident follows another attack three weeks ago in which six people were stabbed – two fatally – in the town of Hadera, increasing pressure on the government to ensure internal security as the war with Hamas drags on.
Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken meets with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Tel Aviv, Israel, Monday, August 19, 2024.
Blinken urges Netanyahu to ‘capitalize’ on Hamas leader’s death
The FBI on Tuesday announced it’s investigating a leak of US intelligence documents that offer details on Israel’s potential plans for retaliation against Iran over its missile attack earlier this month. The highly classified documents were shared on an Iran-linked Telegram account.
The leak puts the US in an awkward position as the intelligence pertains to spying on an ally. It’s not uncommon for governments to gather intel on allies, but such activities can still be embarrassing when revealed.
As the Biden administration scrambles to discover how the documents were leaked, it’s also pushing for a cease-fire in the Middle East amid Israel’s ongoing conflicts with Hezbollah and Hamas. Israel is reportedly considering an Egyptian plan for a two-week cease-fire with Hamas, which would see half a dozen hostages exchanged in the process. It’s possible a smaller agreement like this could gain momentum after months of failed international efforts to secure a lasting peace.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel on Tuesday and urged him to capitalize on the recent death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar “by securing the release of all hostages and ending the conflict in Gaza in a way that provides lasting security for Israelis and Palestinians alike.”
We’ll be watching to see if the US reveals more about the source of the leak and whether Israel shows any signs of accepting a cease-fire proposal.