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Here's why Israel will accept a Gaza ceasefire soon
Despite the foot dragging and all the threats of taking over Gaza City, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will find his way to a ceasefire in Gaza this September. Here's why.
First, domestic pressure is growing. Israel is witnessing some of the largest street protests it's seen in the past two years. They're repetitive, they're consistent, they're ongoing. Second, there's growing international pressure. It is not only the Saudis that are leading the charge for recognition of a Palestinian state at the United Nations this September. It's also the French and the British and other European and Western allies of Israel. By signing on to a temporary ceasefire, Bibi can preclude some of that pressure.
There are also opportunities here. Netanyahu is better positioned against members of his own coalition who have been threatening to leave it if he signs onto that ceasefire, namely, ministers Ben Gvir, Smotrich are in a weaker position right now in the polls that they had been previously. They need him more than he needs them in the lead up to expected parliamentary elections next year.
There's also President Trump and rumors around Washington have it that he will be willing to visit Israel after a stopover in the UK on the 17th to the 19th of September if in fact Bibi finds his way to that temporary ceasefire. And lastly, what Hamas is putting on the table here is an acceptance of the American plan, otherwise known as the Witkoff plan named after the American envoy who tabled it last spring, but couldn't get itself to accept it. So for Bibi not to accept an American plan that he signed off on back in spring is counterintuitive.
So for all those reasons, we think that there will be a temporary ceasefire in September. It's not a total end to the war. It's a 60-day reprieve. Israel can find itself back at war in Gaza, perhaps occupying the entire strip. That will be the negative and brutal scenario. One would hope that diplomacy will find a way and will reign supreme by the end of that 60-day ceasefire.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during a press conference in Kyiv, Ukraine, on Ukrainian Independence Day, Aug. 24, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Ukraine blocked from using long-range US missiles, Israeli strike on hospital, Taliban gaining legitimacy, & More
190: Ukraine has not been able to fire US-made long-range missiles – which have a range of 190 miles – into Russia, as Pentagon policy chief Elbridge Colby blocked Kyiv from using these weapons. Colby is a prominent China hawk who sees support for Ukraine as a distraction from challenging Beijing. Earlier this year, he blocked a weapons shipment to Ukraine, before US President Donald Trump overruled him.
20: An Israeli strike on a hospital in southern Gaza killed at least 20 people, including five journalists, per the Hamas-run health ministry. The Israeli Defense Forces said it “regrets any harm to uninvolved individuals.” Hamas has been known to put its military centers underneath hospitals.
1.3 billion: European and Asian postal services are halting US shipments after Trump revoked the de minimis tariff exemption, which had allowed packages under $800 to enter duty-free. With 1.3 billion parcels shipped under the rule last year, the change threatens global e-commerce, discount retailers, and potentially even personal gift-giving.
15: In a sign that the Taliban is gaining some measure of legitimacy on the global stage, at least 15 countries now have ambassadors in Afghanistan’s capital, Kabul, including China, Russia, Iran, and several Gulf states. Western countries have yet to embrace the Islamist militant group that now runs Afghanistan, but some are taking steps to engage with them, especially on issues of migration.
92%: Ukraine marked Independence Day with President Volodymyr Zelensky urging perseverance in Kyiv’s Maidan Square, as Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney and US special envoy Keith Kellogg visited in solidarity. The holiday marks the day in 1991 when Ukraine’s Parliament voted to reject Soviet rule following a referendum that 92% of Ukrainians voted in favor of.Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva participates in the Inauguration Ceremony of the GWM Factory in Iracemapolis, state of Sao Paulo, on August 15, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Brazil’s left-wing leader makes a comeback, Israel considers Gaza options, India and China explore border drawings
Brazil’s Lula finds a recipe for left-wing LatAm success
Brazil is now subject to 50% tariffs from the United States, but President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva appears to be reveling in it: his approval rating jumped another three percentage points in August, per Genial/Quaest polling, reaching 46%, up from 43% in July and 40% in May. It appears Lula’s positioning as a foil to US President Donald Trump – just see his recent interviews with international outlets – is paying dividends. At a time when much of South America appears to be tilting right, the Brazilian leader may have found a recipe for keeping the left in power.
Escalation or ceasefire: what next for Gaza?
Israel reiterated Tuesday that it won’t accept a ceasefire until Hamas releases all 50 remaining hostages – 20 of whom are believed alive. This comes after Hamas officials said it had accepted a Gaza ceasefire deal, one that would return 28 of the hostages, including 10 of those who are living. Even if the truce does come to fruition, it won’t necessarily spell the end for war in the enclave: Israeli forces are ramping up activity as it prepares to invade Gaza City, calling up an extra 60,000 reservists which doubles the total number currently active.
India and China look to settle disputed border
As India-US relations worsen under Trump’s tariffs, New Delhi’s relationship with China is looking up. India and China agreed this week to explore demarcating their disputed border, a move both sides hailed as a step toward easing decades of tensions. The decision came during Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s first visit to Delhi in three years, ahead of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s expected trip to China for a regional summit. While the border remains fraught, both governments say progress could build trust and spill over into other cooperation, from trade to travel. Next stop for Wang: Pakistan, India’s rival and China’s longtime ally, who would be miffed without a visit.Smoke rises during Israeli strikes amid the Israeli military operation in Deir Al-Balah, in the central Gaza Strip, July 21, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Israeli forces advance into new Gaza area, DRC to ink peace deal with rebels, Chilean crime wave pushes voters rightward
Israel advances for first time into central Gazan refuge city
Israeli ground forces have pushed into Deir al-Balah in central Gaza, an area that the IDF has previously largely avoided because it is believed to be where the remaining Israeli hostages are held. The incursion has raised concern for the safety of the many Gazans who have taken refuge there over the course of the conflict. Israel says it aims to dismantle the remains of Hamas’ infrastructure, but families of the hostages have demanded that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appear before them and the public to clarify the risks to their loved ones.
Democratic Republic of Congo to sign peace pact with rebels
The Democratic Republic of Congo and the Rwanda-backed M23 rebel group have agreed to sign a peace deal by Aug 18, following months of Qatari mediation. The US, which has facilitated separate talks between the Congo and Rwanda, is pushing for peace in the long-running conflict, partly in order to facilitate greater Western investment in the Congo's critical mineral resources. For more background, see our recent piece here.
Crime pushes Chile to the right ahead of election
Deep political polarization is afflicting every region of the world these days, but the trend is especially pronounced in Chile ahead of its November presidential election. Current leftwinger Gabriel Boric must bow out due to term limits, and while polls put Communist candidate Jeanette Jara in first place for now, just behind her is ultraconservative Catholic José Antonio Kast, an open admirer of former Chilean dictator Augusto Pinochet. Given the popularity of several other rightwing candidates, Kast would be the favorite to win a runoff. A key campaign issue: a recent crime wave driven in part by criminal gangs composed of migrants from Venezuela.
Israel, Iran, and the US went to war. Now what happens?
Iran, the clear loser of the 12-Day War, entered as the weakest player and came out weaker still. With Hamas degraded, Hezbollah decimated, Syria toppled, and Russia distracted, Tehran stood mostly alone. Yet its regime can claim survival, some damage inflicted on Israel, and at least partial preservation of its nuclear program—though the extent is unclear.
Netanyahu was never interested in a ceasefire. But he emerged in a far stronger position—crippling Iran’s capabilities, securing US strikes on targets Israel couldn’t reach, and reversing his political fortunes at home.
As for Trump, this is the biggest foreign policy win to date of his second term. He helped dismantle Iran’s nuclear and military infrastructure, avoided war, and saw no US blowback. Iran was already weakened—but Trump called the bluff, and so far, it’s worked. Emphasis on “so far.”
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The Dalai Lama at the start of his 90th birthday celebrations in his exile in northern India.
What We’re Watching: Dalai Lama’s succession plans, Big Beautiful Bill in the House, Israel-Hamas ceasefire under review
Who will be the next Dalai Lama?
As the Dalai Lama approaches his 90th birthday, he is meeting with top Buddhist figures this week to lay out succession plans that could draw a sharp response from China. The 14th Dalai Lama, Tenzin Gyatso, fled his native Tibet after a failed uprising against Chinese rule in 1959 and became the global face of a campaign for Tibetan independence. While China wants to install a successor who will accept Beijing’s control of both Tibet and Taiwan, the Dalai Lama’s latest statement emphasized his office’s “sole authority” over the selection process.
Is the US House ready to pass Trump’s signature legislation?
Following Senate passage on Wednesday, President Donald Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” has returned to the House where lawmakers are scrambling to reach the floor for a possible vote later today. If all members of the House are present — following a cancelled recess, storms in the Washington area this morning have made travel to the Capitol challenging — Republicans can afford just three “no” votes from their members. Some House Republicans already say they would vote against the bill in its current form, likely delaying eventual passage until after Trump’s July 4 deadline.
Israel and Hamas are not yet committed to Gaza ceasefire
On Tuesday, Trump posted on his Truth Social account that Israel had “agreed to the necessary conditions to finalize the 60 Day CEASEFIRE” in Gaza and warned Hamas that its leaders had better say yes. As of late this morning, both Israel and Hamas remain publicly uncommitted to Trump’s terms. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is scheduled to visit the White House next week.Graphic Truth: Another US ceasefire proposal for Gaza
It’s been two weeks since Israel launched its latest offensive in Gaza, one that is set to expand further. Attacks on the enclave in this period have regularly killed dozens, per Hamas-run health ministries, with reports over the weekend of deaths at an aid site. Some of Israel’s allies are even turning on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
The offensive does appear to have weakened Hamas – the Israeli military said it killed Muhammad Sinwar, the militant group’s Gaza leader, during airstrikes in May. US special envoy Steve Witkoff wants to seize on this opening, and has sent a ceasefire offer to Hamas – one that includes an exchange of hostages for prisoners. This Graphic Truth lays out the key terms of the deal. Hamas has countered: it said it’s willing to release the hostages, but wants a permanent ceasefire.
People gather after Friday prayers during a protest in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza, in Amman, Jordan, on April 4, 2025.
Jordan arrests 16 accused terrorists
Jordanian authorities announced on Wednesday the arrest of 16 people accused of planning terrorist attacks inside Jordan. The country’s security services say the suspects had been under surveillance since 2021, and half a dozen of them were reportedly members of the Muslim Brotherhood, a transnational Islamist organization.
The Brotherhood, which has links to the Islamic Action Front, the largest opposition group in Jordan’s parliament, denies any involvement, and insists that it is "committed to its peaceful approach" to Jordan’s politics.
The story highlights underlying tensions in Jordan. The monarchy is a key US ally and aid-recipient, and it made peace with Israel in 1994. But Israel’s assault on Gaza in response to Hamas’ October 7, 2023, attacks generated huge anger in Jordan, where nearly half of the country’s 11.5 million people are of Palestinian origin.
The Islamic Action Front’s ferocious criticism of both Israel and King Abdullah helped it to place first in last year’s election, though the country’s weak parliament remains dominated by pro-government parties.
The bottom line: Much media attention for Israel’s war with Hamas is focused on events in Gaza, but the conflict continues to reverberate around the Middle East. Jordan’s King Abdullah is walking a particularly fine line: how to project both stability and legitimacy as war rages across the border, and tensions run high at home.