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U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken boards a plane, en route to the Middle East, as he departs Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, U.S., October 21, 2024.
US pushes for Middle East cease-fire ahead of Election Day
With exactly two weeks before Election Day in the US, the Biden administration is pushing for cease-fires in Israel’s wars with Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza.
US envoy Amos Hochstein visited Beirut on Monday as part of this effort. Hochstein said that both sides “simply committing” to UN resolution 1701, a peace agreement that followed the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war, “is not enough” and called for a formula “that brings an end to this conflict once and for all.”
Meanwhile, Secretary of State Antony Blinken is en route to Israel, where he is expected to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Isaac Herzog on Tuesday as part of a renewed push for a Gaza cease-fire.
While achieving a cease-fire on either front could potentially boost Kamala Harris’s campaign, the likelihood of this happening before Nov. 5 appears slim. The US and other international negotiators have pushed for a cease-fire for months, without luck.
Israeli airstrikes continued to pound Lebanon and Gaza over the weekend, and the region is still bracing for Israel’s response to Iran’s Oct. 1 missile attack.
We’ll be watching to see if the US can make any progress, but recent history suggests it will be an uphill battle.
Israeli soldiers stand guard as they deny access to Palestinian farmers to harvest olives, in Burqa near Ramallah in the Israeli-occupied West Bank October 20, 2024.
US probes intel leak, drones hit Bibi’s house
Washingtonis investigating a leak of highly classified intelligence about Israel’s preparations for a strike on Iran. Two reports, marked “top secret” and intended only for the US and its Five Eyes allies (Canada, UK, Australia, and New Zealand), began circulating last week on Telegram, a messaging app. They appear to have beenprepared by the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency and detail Israeli air force exercises and movements of munitions in retaliation for Iran’s Oct. 1 missile attack on Israel.
House Speaker Mike Johnson described the leak as“very concerning” with the potential to damage relations between the US and Israel. They were posted to Telegram around the same time Washington gave Israel 30 days to increase aid to Gaza or risk cuts to its military aid.
Meanwhile, Hezbollah intensified its attacks on Israel’s northern border while one of its dronesstruck the home of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Saturday morning. Netanyahu, who was not home at the time, declared that nothing could deter Israel from winning the war and that “The attempt by Iran’s proxy Hezbollah to assassinate me and my wife today was a grave mistake.” Iran denied responsibility for the attack, trying to distance itself from Hezbollah.
We’re watching how it affects US-Israeli relations ahead of the US election, and whether Washington will follow through on its threats over Gaza.FILE PHOTO: Yahya Sinwar, Gaza Strip chief of the Palestinian Islamist Hamas movement, waves to Palestinians during a rally to mark the annual al-Quds Day (Jerusalem Day), in Gaza, April 14, 2023.
Israel kills Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in Gaza
Ever since 1,200 Israelis were brutally murdered by Hamas on Oct. 7, 2023, the Jewish state has been on the hunt for the mastermind of the attack — the terrorist group’s leader, Yahya Sinwar.On Thursday,Israel confirmed that it had killed Sinwar in Gaza, reportedly with Israeli tank fire on a building where soldiers had picked up suspicious movement. His dental and fingerprint impressions match Israeli records.
Sinwar, one of Israel’s top targets, was previously believed to be deep underground surrounded by hostage human shields, so it came as a surprise that he had been killed practically in the open.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hailed Sinwar’s death but stopped short of declaring total victory, saying, “Today, evil took a heavy blow — the mission ahead of us is still unfinished.”
He and US President Joe Biden spoke Thursday, and Biden urged Netanyahu to use the moment to bring hostages home and “bring the war to a close." Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris both praised the successful killing of Sinwar, as did leaders from France, Germany, Italy, and the UK.
Will the war in Gaza wind down? Unlikely, though Netanyahu did offer to allow the terrorists holding the remaining Israeli hostages from Oct. 7 to leave if they laid down their arms and returned the prisoners. Netanyahu on Thursday told Israelis, "The war, my dear ones, is not yet over." Meanwhile, Israel’s operation in Lebanon against Hezbollah, which Netanyahu has promised to continue until Israeli civilians can safely return to areas near the northern border, remains ongoing.
Who will replace Sinwar? Hamas’ succession plans are opaque, but a few key figures stand out. Khaled Mashaal was Hamas’ political leader between 1996 and 2017 and remains influential, but his opposition to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has stressed his relationship with sponsors in Tehran. Probably the best option from Washington’s perspective is Khalil al-Hayya, who has led cease-fire negotiations for Hamas and is seen as more pliable than Sinwar. On the other hand, if Sinwar’s brother Mohammed Sinwar wins the power struggle, his hardline tendencies would likely undermine progress at the negotiating table.
Army Cpl. Rogelio Argueta, Patriot Launching Station Enhanced Operator-Maintainer, assigned with Task Force Talon, 94th Army Air and Missile Defense Command gives commands, during a practice missile reload and unload drills on a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system trainer at Andersen Air Force Base, Guam.
US deploys anti-missile system to Israel, UN accuses Israel of damaging base
The Biden administration is sending an anti-ballistic missile system to Israel to bolster the Jewish state’s defenses against potential Iranian attacks and underscore Washington’s “ironclad commitment” to Israel’s defense, the Pentagon said Sunday. A deployment of 100 US troops will man the Thaad system.
The US has deployed Thaad systems to Israel twice before, once in 2019 and after the Oct. 7 attacks in 2023 — but the war has expanded, and the risks of escalation with US troops in the theater are higher.
Saber-rattling: The deployment follows discussions between American and Israeli officials over Israel’s plans to respond to Iran’s Oct. 1 missile strike on Israel in retaliation for Israel’s killings of Hamas, Hezbollah, and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps leaders. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant vowed last week that Israel’s strike would be “deadly, precise, and surprising,” but Washington has advised against the targeting of Iranian oil facilities and nuclear sites. On Sunday, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchiwarned on X that while Iran wants peace, “we have no red lines in defending our people and interests.”
Meanwhile, Israel’s fights with Hezbollah and Hamas continue. On Sunday, a Hezbollah drone strike in the Israeli city of Binyamina near Haifa killed four soldiers and injured at least 60 people, according to Israeli rescue services. Israel also continued to strike Hamas in northern Gaza, killing at least 20 on Sunday. The UN says no food aid has been delivered since the beginning of October.
And then in Lebanon … On Sunday morning IsraeliPrime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu demanded that the United Nations Interim Force withdraw from southern Lebanon, claiming its forces were being used as “hostages” by Hezbollah.
According to the UN, two Israeli tanks forcibly entered a UNIFIL peacekeeping base in southern Lebanon on Sunday. The tanks left but reportedly fired shells nearby that sickened some of the base personnel. Israeldisputes this and maintains that Hezbollah terrorists fired anti-tank missiles at its troops close to a UNIFIL post and that an Israeli tank evacuating two dozen casualties came under fire and backed into the UNIFIL post.
Nevertheless, Israel was denounced by the UN as wellas by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who phoned Netanyahu on Sunday about the “unacceptable” incident. Italy, usually a staunch supporter of Israel, is the largest contributor to UNIFIL with 1,000 troops.
We’re watching how other UNIFIL countries respond and what the US deployment means for further escalation in the region.
Europe's biggest concerns about Middle East, one year after Oct. 7
What's the situation of Europe one year after the October 7th attack against Israel? What's the main takeaway from the visit of the new NATO Secretary General to Kyiv? Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Lisbon, Portugal.
What's the situation of Europe one year after the October 7th attack against Israel?
Well, I think deep apprehension is the best way of summing it up. Fears that we will see a further escalation of the conflict. Could be further problems in Gaza, could be further problems in West Bank. But perhaps particular now the situation of Lebanon, where there's the risk that we will see a further meltdown by the way of Lebanon. And we already have a million people on the move inside Lebanon. We have perhaps 100,000 people who are trying to flee from Lebanon into Syria. Mind you, there was a million and a half fleeing from Syria into Lebanon a couple of years ago. And the fear that we will see any refugee flow coming out of that area into Europe with all of the problems that would entail. So, deep apprehension on that situation.
What's the main takeaway from the visit of the new NATO Secretary General to Kyiv?
I think it was important for Mark Rutte to go to Kiev as the first thing he did really as the new Secretary General of NATO in order to make very clear his personal commitment to Ukraine, and the fact that he would put that at the top of his list of priorities, much in the same way as outgoing Secretary Jens Stoltenberg has done during the last few years. So, that was an important signal in itself.
How October 7th changed Israel and the Middle East
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: A Quick Take to kick off your week. It is October 7th, and that means one year since Hamas perpetrated the worst terrorist attacks since 9/11. Almost 1,200 Israelis dead, mostly civilians, and still a hundred plus held hostage from that day a year ago. Not much progress on that latter front or on a ceasefire. Not much progress in the region since then. What it did do, of course, on October 7th, is it outraged and unified what had been a very divided Israeli population, divided with massive internal demonstrations on domestic political issues. And suddenly the only issue that mattered was responding to, redressing those attacks, whether you're on the left or the right in Israel and being able to defend the Israeli homeland and get the hostages back.
On the former, they've certainly been effective, hitting back as hard as possible. We've seen that Hamas today is a shell of what it was on October 7th a year ago. The leadership mostly dead. The weapons caches mostly destroyed. The tunnels mostly sealed. Hezbollah, the most powerful non-state military actor in the world, has been damaged critically, and they started rocket attacks against Israel a day after the October 7th terrorist attacks. Israel has now opened up a second front, really the primary front now in the war, and after a couple of weeks of that war, Hezbollah's leadership is dead. Their communication capacity was critically destroyed. The war is ongoing but is certainly not going well for Hezbollah. On the one hand, you've seen a major escalation from the rockets and the bombing happening in Gaza to a ground war across the entirety of that territory now to Lebanon and with significant shots fired missiles and the rest military operations with Iran's other proxies, the Houthis and Yemen, Shia militants in Syria and Iraq, and of course involving Iran itself.
On the other hand, the capacity of these proxy organizations to escalate in return is now far, far less capable, far less serious. Hamas cannot threaten Israel the way they could on October 7th. Hezbollah certainly far, far diminished in their ability to escalate even if they want to. Two big questions are remaining. First, Iran. They are a country that still has all sorts of capabilities to escalate if they wish, possibly not effectively against Israel itself, but against the West, against the world. If they wanted to, they could completely disrupt oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and as a consequence, ensure that much of the oil that comes out of the Middle East, not just Iran's one and a half million barrels a day of export but from the Gulf states is stuck in place. And that would mean oil prices towards $150, even in a depressed demand environment as we see now, and a global recession.
So Iran's capacity, if they want to escalate, is far, far greater than that of Hezbollah or Hamas or anyone else in the region. And they have shown themselves to be quite risk-averse in response to Israeli strikes against Iranian leaders across the region, military leaders, and also against Hamas leadership in Tehran. And that was true back in April, and that was true back a week ago. But still, we are awaiting what is almost certainly going to be an Israeli response, a military response, against Iran for the 180 ballistic missiles that they launched against Israel with no fatalities in Israel. One in the West Bank of a Palestinian, but nonetheless, certainly could have caused a lot of people to be killed. And we will see if that the Israeli response leads to further Iranian escalation. I am at this point hopeful, and I would even say optimistic, that it does not, but optimism feels like exactly the wrong word to describe any of this in the region.
Then the second big question remaining is about the devastation on the ground. In Gaza, for the last year, a million and a half Palestinians are now living on the back of humanitarian aid of on average 125-ish trucks coming in a day. That's compared to 800 to 1000 on average before October 7th. As well as all of those tunnels which have now been sealed, they brought a lot of arms and illicit goods in. They also brought things like food, luxury food stuffs, and other things that you could buy on the gray market in Gaza. Those are closed, and there's no Gaza economy. There's no local Gaza agriculture right now. So the 1.5 million Palestinians are living in an absolutely unimaginable condition on single-digit percentage calories, many of them, in terms of consumption from what they would have been living on before October 7th.
Then you have the West Bank, which has been indirectly involved in the fighting. There's been a lot of skirmishing, a lot of shooting, a lot of people getting killed. And then also Israeli settlers and the IDF taking and securing more land from the Palestinians there. Then of course, in Lebanon in the last two weeks, you have over a million Lebanese who have been displaced from that fighting. Far more will be displaced in all likelihood in the coming weeks. All of this from a humanitarian perspective unacceptable by any yardstick. The United States seen by most of the world as complicit in watching it and not providing the either restraint on Israel or the humanitarian support effectively to help ensure that the suffering is reduced. And of course, this is going to cause hatred and radicalization for generations. And antisemitism was already way too high and on an upswing before October 7th, certainly only greater in this environment a year later.
And of course, with all of this, we don't know what's going to happen with upcoming elections. Kamala Harris came out on "60 Minutes" and described the United States as the best friend of the Israeli people around the world, refused to say whether or not the US was an ally of Prime Minister Netanyahu himself. A very strained relationship between the United States and the Israeli Prime Minister today. While former President Trump came out publicly in the last few days and said that the Israeli government, the Israeli military, should actively take out Iran's nuclear capabilities. So frankly, I would say between Harris and Trump, their policies, their orientation specifically on the Middle East and the Israeli wars in Gaza, in Lebanon, and the fighting we're seeing with Iran, probably the biggest difference on foreign policy between those two candidates would be on this issue. And we will find out in a month plus who is going to lead the United States, but utterly critical as we think about the future of this conflict in the region.
So that is where we are a year after the October 7th terrorist attacks, and now very deep in expanding war that is affecting much of the region. And I will continue to talk about it and follow it for you. So I hope everyone's going well, and I'll talk to you all real soon.
Plane descends through air strike smoke to land at airport in Beirut, Lebanon in this screengrab obtained on October 1, 2024.
Israel broadens the battlefield
The world still awaits Israel’s retaliation against Iran for Tehran’s brazen missile attack last Tuesday. But in the meantime, Israeli forcesconducted further airstrikes in Syria, hitting a weapons depot south of Homs and a rocket depot in the eastern countryside on Sunday. The strikes – which apparently aimed to stem the flow of weapons from Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon –caused “material losses,” according to Syrian state media. They came two days after Israel launched rocket attacks near a Russian airbase in Syria, where Russian forces were reportedly “confronting” the missiles for over 40 minutes, raising concerns that Russia — an Iranian ally – could become embroiled in the escalating regional war.
Meanwhile, on Sunday night, Israel resumed bombardment of targets in Beirut while Hezbollah rockets struck the Israeli port city of Haifa. This followed a weekend of intense Israeli bombardment of Hezbollah targets in suburban Beirut, which took the lives of 23 people, according to the Lebanese health ministry.
Key leaders targeted. The Israeli foreign ministry claims that its air force killed Hezbollah commander Hader Ali Taweel on Sunday. Iran’s Quds Force commander Esmail Qaaniis also missing after Israeli strikes on Beirut last week, though it is unclear whether he is dead or wounded. The Quds Force oversees dealings with militias allied with Tehran across the Middle East, including Hezbollah, and confusion about Qaani’s fate is reportedly causing panic among the troops. The strike was in fact targeting senior Hezbollah figure Hashem Safieddine, who is also unaccounted for, and who was seen as a possible successor to Hezbollah’s former leader, Hassan Nasrallah.
But is Hezbollah the real target? Israel’s increased military operations have led observers to speculate that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expanding operations to target Iran – and drag the US into the conflict. Bibi is also suspected of seeking to torpedo a cease-fire in Gaza to harm the Democrats’ chances in the upcoming US election while boosting his own favorability at home. His poll numbers have climbed since the war with Hezbollah heated up but not far enough to allow him to form a majority government if an election were held today.
When asked on Friday whether Netanyahu was attempting to influence the US election, a frustrated US President Joe Biden said “I don’t know” before adding, “No administration has helped Israel more than I have … And I think [Netanyahu] should remember that.”Israel's Iron Dome anti-missile system intercepts rockets after Iran fired a salvo of ballistic missiles, as seen from Ashkelon, Israel, October 1, 2024.
“Tough week” ahead after Iranian missile strikes on Israel
Iran on Tuesday night launched a massive wave of ballistic missiles at Israel, in apparent retaliation for Israel’s recent devastating strikes against Iran-backed proxies across the region.
Most of the more than 180 missiles were shot down by Israeli and US systems, and as of this writing, no deaths were reported. The attack, coming just hours after Israel began a ground invasion of Lebanon, has raised acute fears of a widening war between Israel and Iran.
The UN Security Council will hold an emergency meeting to discuss the matter on Wednesday morning. Permanent members Russia and China are close with Iran, while the US, which backs Israel, earlier warned Tehran of “severe consequences” for any strikes.
This is the second time Iran has launched an attack like this. The first, in April, was a drone and cruise missile attack, which was largely repulsed in a similar fashion. The ballistic missiles used in this week’s wave travel faster, with less warning time.
The ball is in Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s court again. Iran seemed to signal that it didn’t want further escalation, tweeting that its airstrike operation was complete after an hour or so. But late Tuesday, Netanyahu said Iran had “made a big mistake,” vowing that Tehran “would pay for it.”
Netanyahu, rebounding in the polls, is eager to erase the stain of Oct. 7, 2023, and keen to seize the moment for a deathblow against what he calls “Iran’s Axis of Evil.” The fact that Iran’s ballistic barrages have hardly scratched Israel may only embolden him.
“Iran took a shot at Israel today,” says Cliff Kupchan, head of research at Eurasia Group and a longtime Iran-watcher, “that was a very dangerous move.”
“Israel is in a period of ‘maximum Bibi,’ a politically strong and hubris-filled Netanyahu will hit back hard. It’s going to be a tough week for geopolitics.”