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Israel, Iran, and the US went to war. Now what happens?
Iran, the clear loser of the 12-Day War, entered as the weakest player and came out weaker still. With Hamas degraded, Hezbollah decimated, Syria toppled, and Russia distracted, Tehran stood mostly alone. Yet its regime can claim survival, some damage inflicted on Israel, and at least partial preservation of its nuclear program—though the extent is unclear.
Netanyahu was never interested in a ceasefire. But he emerged in a far stronger position—crippling Iran’s capabilities, securing US strikes on targets Israel couldn’t reach, and reversing his political fortunes at home.
As for Trump, this is the biggest foreign policy win to date of his second term. He helped dismantle Iran’s nuclear and military infrastructure, avoided war, and saw no US blowback. Iran was already weakened—but Trump called the bluff, and so far, it’s worked. Emphasis on “so far.”
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The Dalai Lama at the start of his 90th birthday celebrations in his exile in northern India.
What We’re Watching: Dalai Lama’s succession plans, Big Beautiful Bill in the House, Israel-Hamas ceasefire under review
Who will be the next Dalai Lama?
As the Dalai Lama approaches his 90th birthday, he is meeting with top Buddhist figures this week to lay out succession plans that could draw a sharp response from China. The 14th Dalai Lama, Tenzin Gyatso, fled his native Tibet after a failed uprising against Chinese rule in 1959 and became the global face of a campaign for Tibetan independence. While China wants to install a successor who will accept Beijing’s control of both Tibet and Taiwan, the Dalai Lama’s latest statement emphasized his office’s “sole authority” over the selection process.
Is the US House ready to pass Trump’s signature legislation?
Following Senate passage on Wednesday, President Donald Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” has returned to the House where lawmakers are scrambling to reach the floor for a possible vote later today. If all members of the House are present — following a cancelled recess, storms in the Washington area this morning have made travel to the Capitol challenging — Republicans can afford just three “no” votes from their members. Some House Republicans already say they would vote against the bill in its current form, likely delaying eventual passage until after Trump’s July 4 deadline.
Israel and Hamas are not yet committed to Gaza ceasefire
On Tuesday, Trump posted on his Truth Social account that Israel had “agreed to the necessary conditions to finalize the 60 Day CEASEFIRE” in Gaza and warned Hamas that its leaders had better say yes. As of late this morning, both Israel and Hamas remain publicly uncommitted to Trump’s terms. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is scheduled to visit the White House next week.Graphic Truth: Another US ceasefire proposal for Gaza
It’s been two weeks since Israel launched its latest offensive in Gaza, one that is set to expand further. Attacks on the enclave in this period have regularly killed dozens, per Hamas-run health ministries, with reports over the weekend of deaths at an aid site. Some of Israel’s allies are even turning on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
The offensive does appear to have weakened Hamas – the Israeli military said it killed Muhammad Sinwar, the militant group’s Gaza leader, during airstrikes in May. US special envoy Steve Witkoff wants to seize on this opening, and has sent a ceasefire offer to Hamas – one that includes an exchange of hostages for prisoners. This Graphic Truth lays out the key terms of the deal. Hamas has countered: it said it’s willing to release the hostages, but wants a permanent ceasefire.
People gather after Friday prayers during a protest in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza, in Amman, Jordan, on April 4, 2025.
Jordan arrests 16 accused terrorists
Jordanian authorities announced on Wednesday the arrest of 16 people accused of planning terrorist attacks inside Jordan. The country’s security services say the suspects had been under surveillance since 2021, and half a dozen of them were reportedly members of the Muslim Brotherhood, a transnational Islamist organization.
The Brotherhood, which has links to the Islamic Action Front, the largest opposition group in Jordan’s parliament, denies any involvement, and insists that it is "committed to its peaceful approach" to Jordan’s politics.
The story highlights underlying tensions in Jordan. The monarchy is a key US ally and aid-recipient, and it made peace with Israel in 1994. But Israel’s assault on Gaza in response to Hamas’ October 7, 2023, attacks generated huge anger in Jordan, where nearly half of the country’s 11.5 million people are of Palestinian origin.
The Islamic Action Front’s ferocious criticism of both Israel and King Abdullah helped it to place first in last year’s election, though the country’s weak parliament remains dominated by pro-government parties.
The bottom line: Much media attention for Israel’s war with Hamas is focused on events in Gaza, but the conflict continues to reverberate around the Middle East. Jordan’s King Abdullah is walking a particularly fine line: how to project both stability and legitimacy as war rages across the border, and tensions run high at home.
Demonstrators clash with police during a protest for the release of hostages held in Gaza, outside the home of Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer in Jerusalem, Israel, on April 13, 2025.
Current and former Israeli security forces demand a deal with Hamas
Thousands of Israeli soldiers, senior military officials, former intelligence operatives, military reservists, and veterans organizations have called on Israel’s prime minister to strike a deal with Hamas to free the remaining 59 hostages the group holds.
Twenty-four of those captives, taken during the group’s October 7, 2023 rampage into Southern Israel, are believed still alive, although Hamas said it lost contact with one living US-Israeli hostage yesterday.
In a series of open letters, these groups accuse Benjamin Netanyahu of endangering Israel’s security. Some claim he’s continuing the war to appease the right-wing nationalist parties that help him remain prime minister.
A missive from special forces reservists published on Monday said the latest wave of Israeli assaults on Gaza, which began last month after phase one of the Hamas-Israel ceasefire deal lapsed, “is intended only to serve the political goals of the government and the criminal defendant who heads it.” This is a pointed reference to the corruption charges Netanyahu has faced since before the war. He effectively holds immunity against them so long as he is prime minister.
Netanyahu has denounced those protesting. They are “frustrated retirees”, he said, and “an extreme fringe group that is once again trying to break Israeli society from within.”
Recent polls report that about 70% of Israeli Jews favor a deal with Hamas to free the remaining hostages, even if that means ending the war.
The big question: How long can Netanyahu continue a policy that moves out of line with what a majority of Israeli Jews want?
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani attends a press briefing in Tehran, Iran, January 8, 2025.
Iran-backed militias in Iraq ready to surrender weapons?
The militia commanders also said that the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps, their prime supplier of weapons and money, had agreed to let local group leaders inside Iraq decide how best to respond to Trump’s threats. They are also reportedly mindful that the aggressive Israeli attacks in the region – particularly against Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthi rebels in Yemen and the Red Sea, and in Syria – have forced militia groups to avoid conflict.
Though these militia moves are more likely a tactical retreat than a true surrender, any move to disarm would give the Trump administration a notable foreign-policy victory without an attack. The so-called Islamic Resistance in Iraq, a group of about 10 heavily armed Shia militias with a total of 50,ooo fighters and access to heavy weapons, including long-range missiles, has attacked both Israeli and US military targets in the past.
It’s also a significant possible loss for Iran, which has seen its most powerful regional allies – Hezbollah, Bashar Assad’s government in Syria, Hamas, and Houthi rebels – take beatings in recent months.
Palestinians travel in vehicles between the northern and southern Gaza Strip along the Rashid Road on April 2, 2025.
Israel seizes more Gaza territory – for how long?
Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu said Wednesday that Israel was seizing more territory in Gaza to “divide up” the besieged enclave. He spoke as Israeli forces increased the intensity of their assault on Hamas in Gaza, which resumed two weeks ago after phase one of the ceasefire agreed to in January ended.
The context: Hamas still holds 59 hostages captured during the group’s Oct. 7, 2023, attacks in southern Israel. The two sides are deadlocked on reaching a further deal: Netanyahu wants full Hamas disarmament, Israeli security control of Gaza, and the “voluntary” migration of Gazans. Hamas rejects that and says it will release the remaining hostages – 24 are believed to still be alive – only if Israel withdraws fully.
What territory is Israel taking? Netanyahu pointed specifically to a new “Morag Corridor,” which would bisect southern Gaza, cutting off the cities of Rafah and Khan Younis from each other. Since October 2023, the IDF has already occupied nearly 20% of Gazan territory, forming “buffer zones” around the edges of the enclave.
The big question: Is this a tactical move meant to heighten the pressure on Hamas to release the remaining hostages? Or is Israel planning to hold onto vast swathes of Gaza … indefinitely?Syria's interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa speaks during a Ministerial formation of the government of the Syrian Arab Republic, in Damascus, Syria, on March 29, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Syria gets new Cabinet, US steps up Houthi strikes, Top US vaccine official resigns, Hamas offers hostages for ceasefire, Trump eyes third term, Kashmir violence turns deadly, Trump shrugs off high car prices
23: Syria has a new transitional Cabinet. Interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa swore in his new 23-member team on Saturday, replacing caretakers who had been in those roles since former President Bashar Assad was ousted in December. While the new Cabinet is largely filled with al-Sharaa allies, it is religiously and ethnically diverse, a sign that Syria is moving forward to rebuild in the post-Assad and post-civil war era.
1: At least one person was killed amid suspected US strikes against Yemen’s Houthis on Saturday. According to the Associated Press, the Trump administration has embarked on an expanded anti-Houthi campaign in recent days, targeting ranking rebel personnel. Satellite photos also reportedly show an airstrip off Yemen that looks prepared to accept flights and B-2 bombers.
100,000: The FDA’s top vaccine official resigned on Friday after being told he could quit or be fired. Dr. Peter Marks stressed that he was worried that Robert F. Kennedy’s aggressive stance on vaccination would dangerously undermine public confidence in vaccines against common diseases such as measles, which is spreading in the US and has “killed more than 100,000 unvaccinated children last year in Africa and Asia.” An HHS spokesperson, meanwhile, said Friday that Dr. Marks didn’t belong at the FDA if he was not committed to supporting the “restoration of science to its golden standard and advocate for radical transparency.”
5-50: On Saturday, Hamas offered to release 5 hostages during the three-day Muslim holiday Eid al-Fitr, which began Sunday, to secure a 50-day ceasefire. The offer came in response to a proposal the militants received from Egypt and Qatar. Israel offered a counterproposal in coordination with Washington, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is demanding the release of 10 of the remaining 24 hostages believed to still be alive.
3: US President Donald Trump mused on Sunday that he’s not joking about finding “methods” to serve a third term, including being elected VP and then having the president resign to become president by succession. While some Trump loyalists like Steve Bannon believe a third term might be possible, constitutional experts warn there’s no “one weird trick” to bypass the 22nd Amendment, which limits presidents to two elected terms.
6: Four police officers and two suspected rebels — dubbed terrorists for their opposition to Indian rule — were reportedly killed Saturday morning in Jammu and Kashmir. Thousands of people have died in battles between rebels and Indian security forces over the past few decades, but violence has lessened in recent years.
15,000: How much will US President Donald Trump’s 25% tariffs against Canada and Mexico drive up car prices? Goldman Sachs estimates a bump of between $5,000 and $15,000 per vehicle, depending on the brand and model. But Trump told NBC News on Saturday that he “couldn’t care less” if car prices soared, maintaining that manufacturers should build their vehicles in the US.