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How Qatar became the mediator
After weeks of devastating fighting, Qatar helped mediate a temporary truce between Israel and Hamas that opened the door for exchanges of hostages and prisoners. So how has Qatar, a nation that doesn’t have official diplomatic relations with Israel, played such an outsized role in this process?
Why Qatar: The Gulf state has repeatedly served as a mediator in conflicts across the Middle East and beyond, offering itself as a bridge of communication between historic, bitter adversaries like the US and Iran, the US and the Taliban, Ukraine and Russia, and Israel and Hamas. The tiny, gas-rich, wealthy nation has sought to boost its global profile over the past decade or so by serving in this capacity – and it’s had help from the US government along the way.
Qatar is home to the largest US military base in the Middle East – Al Udeid Air Base, which the US has been operating out of since 2001 – and its role as a mediator has “been largely a strategy pursued in coordination with Washington to deal with different regional issues,” says Ayham Kamel, head of Eurasia Group’s Middle East and North Africa research team.
But it’s also in Qatar’s DNA. Mediating conflict, says Patrick Theros, former US ambassador to Qatar, is “quite literally in Qatar’s Constitution,” and it’s seen as a key part of the country’s national security strategy.
Stability starts at home. Qatar views mediation as a vital means of maintaining regional stability and reducing its own security risks. “Qatar is, by citizen population, the smallest state in the Gulf region and, per capita, the richest in the Gulf and arguably the world. It is surrounded by predatory larger and stronger neighbors,” Theros notes.
Qatar was blockaded from 2017 to 2021 by Saudi Arabia and three other Arab countries that accused Doha of supporting terror groups and of being too close to Iran. This episode highlighted the risks that Qatar’s approach to foreign affairs can pose, but those risks have also paid off in big ways.
The US, which played a role in ending the blockade, clearly sees Qatar’s desire to be a peacemaker in a prickly region as advantageous to its interests. In October, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken lauded Qatar as a “close partner” to the US on a range of crucial issues.
Doha has secured the “protection of powerful outside powers” like the US by making itself “indispensable” with its mediation efforts, Theros said.
Elements of leverage: Qatar has been engaging with Israel since the 1990s, and since 2012, it has also hosted a political office for Hamas, which Doha says was opened at the request of the US. This gives Qatar a degree of influence over the militant group, and some exiled senior Hamas officials live in Qatar, which has also poured hundreds of millions of dollars of aid into Gaza.
Doha maintains “good credible relations with a lot of less than nice parties” that Washington can’t engage with directly and has hosted groups like Hamas and the Taliban “at the express request of the US,” says Theros.
Some prominent Israeli politicians are not thrilled that Qatar has been tapped as a peacemaker in the conflict given its relationship with Hamas. There has also been some pushback regarding Qatar’s ties to Hamas from pro-Israel politicians in the US. But Doha maintains that keeping the Hamas office open allows Qatar to be a channel of communication, which benefits the US and Israel, as we’ve seen this past week.
“In the Israel-Hamas conflict, Qatar has proven itself to be one of the few viable channels to pressure Hamas to conduct deals on releasing Israeli hostages,” Kamel says. “At this point, the US is leveraging Qatar's influence to release as many hostages as possible while still maintaining support for Israel's objective of eliminating the Hamas threat.”
REUTERS/Alexander Ermochenko
US pushes for longer Israel-Hamas truce
Top US officials are in the Middle East this week to try to prolong the fragile, temporary truce between Israel and Hamas made possible by the exchange of hostages and prisoners.
CIA Director Bill Burns, who was in Qatar on Tuesday as part of this push, is reportedly urging Hamas and Israel to embrace a broader agreement that would allow for the release of men and military personnel. Until now, the deal has only involved the release of women and children.
Sec. of State Antony Blinken is also set to visit Israel and the occupied West Bank this week, where he’ll discuss “continued efforts to secure the release of remaining hostages,” according to the State Department.
While the Biden administration and others pushing for a longer truce may succeed in getting a short-term extension – Israel has said it would add a day for every 10 hostages released, and the truce was extended by two days on Monday – there are serious doubts that a lengthier pause is in the cards anytime soon given the Israeli government’s vocal commitment to continuing the war.
The obstacle: Qatar, which has served as a mediator between the warring parties, says more than 40 of the 240 hostages seized on Oct. 7 are not held captive by Hamas. Dozens are reportedly being held by another militant group in Gaza – the Palestinian Islamic Jihad – that wants greater concessions from the Israeli government.
Israel has indicated that it will resume its Gaza offensive unless hostages continue being released. And even if all the hostages were freed, Netanyahu – whose political days are numbered, with recent polling showing that most Israelis want him to resign –- has made it clear he intends to destroy Hamas.
TL;DR: The conflict is paused, but far from over.
COP28 climate talks complicated by UAE oil deals
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Will the UAE’s pursuit of oil deals during COP28 undermine the summit's climate goals?
Well, it certainly doesn't make it any easier. I mean, this is the time when the world comes together and tries to reduce the level of carbon in the atmosphere, and the fact that it's being hosted by one of the world's largest oil producers and by the chairman, the CEO of one of the world's largest oil companies, who also is driving his country's sustainability goals. Well, I mean, I guess you can say he's hedged. You can definitely say that but you can also say it's challenging and problematic. Look, there was a chance that COP was going to fall apart completely and you were just going to have fragmented bilateral deals. The Chinese, for example, get much more influence giving out money directly in return for things with countries than being a part of a multilateral group. Having said that, US and China recently have come together on climate in advance, specifically of COP28, and there is more movement on methane emissions from the two largest emitters in the world. There's more movement on carbon capture and storage than we've seen before. Look, I'm glad the meetings happened. It is happening. It's going to be more successful than it not showing up. But there are big challenges and you're going to hear those frustrations loudly from the developing world who are taking climate on the chin.
How will Taiwan's upcoming election affect US-China relationship?
It's coming up January 13th and it look like there was a deal being put together between the two opposition candidates. That deal is now falling apart, which means it is more likely that the vice president and his representative in Washington who is going to run on the ticket with him for the DPP, the Nationalist Party, the pro autonomy as the Chinese government in Beijing says the pro-independence party, is likely to win. That means more tensions over Taiwan, with China and Taiwan and with the Americans and China. So definitely next year that's going to be a more significant risk, something for us all to watch.
Will Elon Musk provide Starlink to Gaza?
Sure he will, as long as the Israeli government says it's okay. The interesting point here is that do you want decisions over where technology is and is not provided that will change the security balance on the ground between countries decided by one man. That is what happened with Russia and Ukraine, largely to Ukraine's favor, though not consistently and not always. That is what's happening in Israel and Gaza to Israel's favor. And that is what would happen between mainland China and Taiwan in mainland China’s favor, because that's where Elon has all of his economic bets, not in favor of Taiwan. And by the way, if you're the US government or a NATO member or Japan, what that means is that you really need to be developing your own technologies or having those technologies in companies that are national champions like Lockheed was in the days in the 20th century, first company ever referred to as “too big to fail” because of the dangers to American national security if something happened to it. This is a very important issue what I call a techno-polar moment and one that is becoming much more significant over time.
Israel-Hamas war: Hostage release doesn't mean the end is near
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi, everybody. Ian Bremmer here and a Quick Take to kick off your week. And yes, we are back to the Israel-Gaza war and it is at least a little bit of good news with some hostages finally being released over a month and a half from when they were originally taken. That has gotten us some Palestinian prisoners released, some humanitarian aid allowed into Gaza and a ceasefire for a few days. And indeed, looks like it will now plausibly be extended for another day or two as more hostages are being let go.
Got to give Qatar a lot of credit here for playing a role in negotiating between Israel and Hamas. Not an easy thing to do. Qatar, an ally of the United States, the biggest military base on the ground, but also a government that has allowed the political leadership of Hamas to live inside their territory in peace and security as they have Taliban leadership for years. And that proves to be useful for both the Americans and the Israelis, more on that later. But is this potentially the beginning of the end of the war? And on that front, I think we have to say absolutely not for a few reasons.
First of all, because there are still well over 100 hostages and they're going to be much harder to get released because here you're not talking about women and children. You're talking about men of fighting age, and in some cases you're talking about soldiers. And Hamas is going to demand a lot more in return. And the Israelis are going to be very reluctant to provide it. So first, I don't expect that's going to happen. And as long as there are hostages on the ground, there's still going to be an awful lot of fighting from the Israeli side.
Secondly, we still have a Hamas leadership, a military leadership active in the north of Gaza. Their ability to continue to fire rockets and their ability to continue to have command and control infrastructure, that's not been destroyed. And the Israeli military saying that it's probably another two months of fighting that they need in the war. By the way, this is about a month after they told the Americans privately that there would be 4 to 6 weeks required.
Now, part of that is, hey, just say the absolute minimum so you get support from the US. You can always extend it later. It's a tactic, but also because it's proving to be more challenging on the ground than the Israeli Defense Forces had anticipated. Not to mention the fact they haven't started fighting in the south, where they told all the Palestinian civilians to evacuate to, but there are also Hamas militants operating in the south. And so Israel intends to try to take them out as well. In other words, we're still talking about weeks, maybe months of active fighting.
The other thing I will say, though, is that the level of pressure on Israel internationally to stop that fighting is going to grow a lot. You've seen the Chinese, the Gulf states, the Egyptians, the Jordanians and Europeans, many Europeans, though not all, and increasingly many inside the United States as well, now actively calling for a ceasefire. And Biden even saying, President Biden, something he had been saying privately, but is now saying publicly that he might be willing to condition further military and financial support to Israel on the basis of Israeli behavior on the ground in the war. And he's very concerned, certainly as everyone is, about the level of civilian casualties that we've all seen in Gaza. Now, does that mean that Israel is no longer America's top ally? No. Under no circumstances can I see that. And Biden would not move in that direction, not personally and not politically. But I could see, for example, some high tech offensive weaponry being held back by the Americans for example, becoming more controversial.
And I also see that happening from Democrats in the House and in the Senate. Again, this is no longer a matter of just a small number of hard-line progressives on the squad in the House. This is much broader. I think we are at the point where Israel has probably lost some degree of support from the United States permanently. The demographics in the United States and how they feel about Israel and what that means politically for the country longer term has shifted. And certainly you can now see things in mainstream media that never would have been printed sort of even three months ago, never mind ten years ago, about their feeling of how Israel does and doesn't run a democracy, nature of the occupation in the West Bank, nature of detentions of those that are accused of, but not yet convicted of crimes, and on and on and on. That level of attention, which only grows, that level of scrutiny that only grows, the longer this war goes on. And of course, the longer we see massive civilian casualties on the ground, that's going to be more challenging for Israel.
There also remains what is the plausible long-term impact of all of this. And for now, it just looks like misery and it's very hard to imagine how the Palestinians could ever come to peace in the region until they have an option that looks attractive. And right now, if you're a Palestinian in Gaza, the option is run away and find someplace to not get blown up. And they're not going to leave Gaza and they're not allowed to leave Gaza, even if they did want to leave Gaza and they don't want to. And then you have Palestinians in the West Bank who are living on smaller and smaller pieces of territory and their lives have become more and more challenging. So, I mean, clearly, at some point, the Israeli government, with a lot of international support and pressure, are going to need to provide meaningful opportunities for the Palestinian people.
And we are not close to that. We are still talking about more war, not less, and less opportunities for building peace, not more. I hope that that will turn in the coming weeks and months. Certainly the international pressure is turning, but not yet the situation on the ground. From that perspective, we're still going to be talking about this quite a bit.
That's it for me. I'll talk to you all real soon.
- Israel-Hamas war: "Just bring them back," says brother of 9-year-old Israeli hostage ›
- Why Israel’s war aims may “break Israeli society”: a conversation with Israeli hostage negotiator Gershon Baskin ›
- Third hostage and prisoner exchange goes ahead, but will there be ... ›
- Dealing with Hamas: What a former hostage negotiator learned ›
- The debate over a “cease-fire” for Gaza ›
Sharon Hertzman hugs her son Omer at Sheba Medical Center after she was released by Hamas militants this weekend.
Hamas and Israel signal they are open to extending four-day truce
Since Friday, 58 hostages have been released by Hamas in exchange for 117 Palestinian prisoners released by Israel. On Sunday, Hamas freed the latest group of 17 hostages, including 13 Israelis, three Thai nationals, and one American girl, Abigail Mor Edan, who turned four while in captivity. In turn, Israel released 39 male prisoners, all of whom were minors. The exchange was delayed by several hours due to allegations by Hamas that Israel made “several violations of the agreement,” including not delivering enough aid to northern Gaza and not releasing Palestinian prisoners in a specific order.
While photos of emotional family reunions have been heartwarming, a big question remains: What will happen after the four-day truce expires Tuesday morning?
Over the weekend, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told US President Joe Biden that Israel would resume its campaign in Gaza “with full force” once the truce ceases. But he also said the pause would continue if Hamas freed 10 additional hostages each day as originally agreed.
For its part, Hamas has said it will seek to extend the deal by releasing more hostages. There remain an estimated 40 women and children who were not part of the first set of exchanges, though some are being held by other groups, including Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said the US was “working with all sides on the possibility that this deal gets extended to additional hostages beyond the initial 50.”
Most analysts don’t believe the truce will hold very long. “I can’t see [it] lasting more than a week,” said Miri Eisin, head of the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism. “The IDF wants to dismantle Hamas’ terror capability and military capability, and the only way to do that is through a systematic and careful ground operation.”
Protesters hold signs demanding the liberation of hostages being held in the Gaza Strip after they were seized by Hamas gunmen on Oct. 7, in Tel Aviv, on Nov. 21, 2023, just hours before the announcement of a four-day cease-fire.
Israel and Hamas: A cease-fire, if you can keep it
Well, we were told to ignore all rumors about a hostage release deal until something was announced officially, so we did.
But now it’s for real: Late Wednesday, Israel’s cabinet approved a limited cease-fire with Hamas militants in the Gaza Strip in exchange for the release of some of the roughly 240 hostages that Hamas abducted during its Oct. 7 rampage through southern Israel. The deal was brokered with help from the US and Qatar.
The terms: Israel will suspend its assault on Gaza for a period of four days, during which time Hamas will release 50 of the hostages, and Israel will release 150 of the nearly 8,000 Palestinians currently jailed in Israel.
Israel will not withdraw any of its forces from Gaza during that time.
Around 300 humanitarian aid trucks will be allowed into the Gaza Strip for each day of the cease-fire.
Israel may prolong the cease-fire by one day for every additional 10 hostages released by Hamas.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pledged to continue Israel’s military action in Gaza after the cease-fire is over.
The pressure: The Israeli government has sworn to destroy Hamas in retaliation for the Oct. 7 attacks, but it has also come under intense pressure at home to secure the release of the hostages.
International demands for a cease-fire, meanwhile, have grown as well. The death toll from Israel’s assault on Gaza has now surpassed 12,000 people, according to local health authorities, while more than two-thirds of Gaza’s 2.2 million population have been displaced. Israeli blockades of humanitarian aid and fuel have exacerbated a gruesome humanitarian crisis in the densely packed enclave.
The catch: It’s not clear when the cease-fire will go into effect. Thursday would be the earliest, as Israel must leave time for any local court challenges to the release of specific Palestinian prisoners, whose names will be made public on Wednesday.
The concern: Agreeing to a cease-fire and hostage release is a major breakthrough, but it’s only a beginning. There is little trust between Hamas and Israel, and both sides will need to maintain strict control over their forces to observe the cease-fire. Even the slightest of perceived provocations could spiral into fresh violence that wrecks the deal entirely.
Argentina's economy will get a lot worse before it gets better
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Will Israel and Hamas finally reach a hostage deal?
We keep hearing about this deal. We're now saying it's imminent, but imminent doesn't mean announced. And, you know, things can go wrong at the last minute still, where the details make it seem like this is going to happen. And what that means is not only we're going to see at least a few dozen Israeli women and children released and some Palestinians, also mostly women, it looks like, released as well from Israel, but that you'll get a temporary ceasefire in three days, five days, and maybe that leads to more diplomacy. It doesn't lead to Israel no longer attacking Hamas. Let's be clear. It's not an actual ceasefire, but it creates more space for people to be talking, especially talking with the Israelis, major leaders in the region. That is something we'll be watching very closely.
What does Javier Milei’s election mean for the future of Argentina?
Well look, it means that the Argentines were absolutely sick of the country falling apart and they were voting between a guy who said he was going to dollarized and get rid of a lot of the government and someone who represented economic policies that have driven the country into a ditch, 140% inflation and massive poverty and, you know, nobody investing and close to a default from the IMF. So, I mean, all of this is a disaster. But Milei, he doesn't have a single governor. He won't have a majority in Congress. He doesn't have an economic team. And his economic plans are mostly vaporware. So, I mean, this is not a country that has the ability to screw around for an awful lot. It's not like the United States in Afghanistan or Iraq. You make mistakes. But the economy is still great. Argentina is not Afghanistan, but they are in serious, serious trouble. And so, yeah, the economy is going to get a lot worse before it gets better. And we'll watch that. It's very expensive to dollarize by the way. And so that means you got to have to print a lot more. I suspect that this is going to be a lot more hardship on the backs of a lot of Argentines. Okay.
Happy Thanksgiving! What world leader has the most to be thankful for this holiday season?
What a hard thing. I mean, all leaders should be thankful because, you know, in principle, they're doing a hell of a lot better because they're representing their people and they should appreciate that and they should take that seriously. And a lot of them don't. But I guess I probably say Modi. Narendra Modi in India, because I mean, he is a very popular leader of the world's largest democracy, 1.4 billion people, the most populous country in the world, is pretty democratic. It's growing economically. It is a leader of the Global South, but it's also with increasingly stable relations with the United States, with Japan and with Europe. And Modi has accomplished a lot of that. So he has a lot to be thankful for. And he is not going anywhere anytime soon. So there's that.
An opening to a tunnel that, according to Israel's military, was used by Palestinian militants under Al Shifa hospital in the Gaza Strip as seen in this screen grab taken from a handout video released by the Israel Defense Forces on November 19, 2023
The controversy around, and under, Al Shifa Hospital
It’s been a week since Israeli forces seized control of Al Shifa Hospital, the largest medical facility in the Gaza Strip, prompting the evacuation of hundreds of patients and staff.
The IDF has said the complex sits atop a vast network of tunnels and bunkers – some of them built by Israel when it still occupied Gaza in the 1980s – which Hamas uses as an underground command center. Prior to raiding the hospital, the Israelis released a 3D rendering of what they think is underneath it.
In the days since, the IDF claims to have found evidence of a Hamas presence at the complex: a video that appears to show small arms cached in an MRI center, at least one tunnel, and security camera footage that appears to show at least two of the Oct. 7 hostages being taken into the hospital. None of the footage has been independently verified.
The controversy. The question of what is or is not at Al Shifa has echoed wider clashes over the war. The Israeli government is keen to prove that Hamas has used hospitals and other civilian facilities for significant military purposes. Critics of Israel’s siege and invasion of Gaza, meanwhile, say that forcing patients out of the hospital and seizing it without military justification reflects a broader pattern of IDF disregard for civilian casualties in Gaza.
What do the laws of war say? Combatants can, in fact, attack a school or a hospital, provided there is credible evidence that it is being used to harm the enemy directly, explains Sari Bashi, program director at Human Rights Watch.
But critically, the law also says that any response must be – and this is the grayish zone – “proportionate.” It is not “proportionate,” for example, to destroy a crowded elementary school in order to kill a single sniper positioned on the roof. But depending on how many people the sniper has killed or put in danger, it could be proportionate to target the sniper specifically, even if that meant killing or wounding some students in the process.
For hospitals, Bashi notes, the standards of protection are even higher – after all, even small damage to a hospital can affect the provision of medical services for the wider population.
What’s more, an occupying power immediately has the responsibility to ensure the continued smooth functioning of the hospital. “That’s not what happened,” says Bashi, who points out that even after the IDF took over Al Shifa, there were further evacuations of doctors and patients.
So is the evidence that Israel has shown sufficient? Not yet, says Ilia Utmelidze, director of the Case Matrix Network, a nonprofit that assists governments with war crimes investigations. But he cautions that “these things take time.” Social media is not going to be the place where serious investigative work of this kind gets done.
Still, without a credible international investigation – which the IDF has so far not allowed as it continues to search the complex itself – there may be little evidence of value either way.
One thing to remember. Humanitarian law and the laws of war are imperfect. After all, they are a body of rules developed largely by militaries in the late 1940s to regulate the making of war rather than to prevent conflict altogether. As such, they often permit a wider range of violence and killing than people are comfortable with.
“Unfortunately, humanitarian law is not,” Utmelidze says, “as humane as we would like it to be.”