Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks during a meeting with Judiciary Officials in Tehran, Iran, on July 16, 2025.
Iran’s next act?
– By Willis Sparks
Iran’s government is in big trouble.
Twelve days of war earlier this summer demonstrated that Iran has little capacity to defend its cities or its nuclear facilities from Israeli and US strikes.
Meanwhile, its most potent proxies — Hamas, Hezbollah, and Yemen’s Houthi rebels — have taken bad beatings over the past year. Former Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, Iran’s principal state ally in the Middle East, now lives in Moscow rather than Damascus.
And within Iran, no one knows exactly what will happen when the ailing 86-year-old supreme leader makes his final exit. Everyone in a position of power in Iran must wonder how a succession, which the country hasn’t experienced in 36 years, will affect his influence, power, and access to wealth. And simmering beneath all of that, the risk of civil unrest inside Iran is always present – it can be triggered by a single incident on the street or inside a police station.
But the regime still has a not-so-secret weapon, and it’s precisely the one that Israel and the United States attacked in June.
Despite those airstrikes, Iran still appears to have a nuclear program, though how much of one remains a matter of dispute. Just after the attacks, President Donald Trump called the US strikes “a spectacular military success” that had “completely and totally obliterated” Iran’s most important enrichment facilities. A US intelligence report published on July 17 asserted that 12 bunker-busting bombs dropped from US B-2 bombers had severely degraded Iran’s enrichment facility at Fordo and inflicted significant damage on other sites.
But other damage assessments have raised doubts about these conclusions. The Center for Strategic and International Studies, a think tank, said at the beginning of July that it was “highly speculative” to estimate Iran’s new breakout time (the time needed to produce enough highly enriched uranium to make one nuclear weapon), and assessed that, while “Iran has lost centrifuges at the three facilities that suffered damage, it also likely has an undeclared stockpile of centrifuges.”
The bottom-line: Iran still has options. If its leaders want to try for a bomb, they almost certainly can. And Iran’s wounded and humiliated regime now has every reason to race to build the only weapon that can guarantee its security.
If they do, that could force a big decision on Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: whether to take down the Iranian government itself. In the closing hours of the operation in June, Israeli fighter jets struck the headquarters of the paramilitary militia of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, killing hundreds of its members. That’s a direct attack on the core of the regime — and a reminder of what’s possible if Iran’s leaders try to rebuild the nuclear program.
Whether the next Iran-related emergency involves an even more destructive and direct US-Israeli attack on Iran, or a surge of destabilizing unrest inside the country, or both, we may remember June’s “12-day war” as the opening act of a much more consequential drama.
But one thing is nearly certain: the catastrophic events of the past two years have likely made a nuclear weapons program more valuable for Iran’s leaders, not less.
Israel, Iran, and the US went to war. Now what happens?
Iran, the clear loser of the 12-Day War, entered as the weakest player and came out weaker still. With Hamas degraded, Hezbollah decimated, Syria toppled, and Russia distracted, Tehran stood mostly alone. Yet its regime can claim survival, some damage inflicted on Israel, and at least partial preservation of its nuclear program—though the extent is unclear.
Netanyahu was never interested in a ceasefire. But he emerged in a far stronger position—crippling Iran’s capabilities, securing US strikes on targets Israel couldn’t reach, and reversing his political fortunes at home.
As for Trump, this is the biggest foreign policy win to date of his second term. He helped dismantle Iran’s nuclear and military infrastructure, avoided war, and saw no US blowback. Iran was already weakened—but Trump called the bluff, and so far, it’s worked. Emphasis on “so far.”
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
As the Israel-Iran conflict dies down, the domestic battles reignite
It’s been just over a week since US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. Despite a brief exchange of bombs – and Trump’s f-bomb – in the immediate aftermath of this announcement, a tepid truce appears to be holding, even if questions remain about the extent of the damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities.
But how did the flare-up affect the domestic politics of each country involved? Let’s explore how the 12-day conflict affected the political fortunes of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and Trump.
Israel: Netanyahu off the ropes, for now.
Three weeks ago, it looked like Netanyahu was staring into the abyss, with his coalition government on the verge of collapse. He survived the vote, then bombed Iran, destroying parts of its nuclear facilities and killing several senior military officials. As a coup de grace, he got the US to join the cause as well.
The data reflects that this was a success for the Israeli leader. Some 70% of Israelis supported the strikes, per one poll, and he also received an electoral polling bump.
Yet Netanyahu isn’t out of the woods – far from it. Though the fighting has ended with Iran, it continues in Gaza. It’s this conflict – and the failure to retrieve the remaining 50 Israeli hostages – that dominates Israel’s domestic politics right now, and it has put Netanyahu in a Catch-22, per Aaron David Miller, a former US diplomat who is now a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
“He’s trapped between his right-wing coalition partners, and public opinion – but even more important, potentially, Donald Trump,” says Miller, referencing how Netanyahu’s right flank doesn’t want him to make a deal with Hamas, whereas the Israeli public and Trump do.
What’s more, Netanyahu still faces a corruption trial. Miller noted that Israel’s judicial branch hasn’t been afraid to imprison the top public officials – former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert served 16 months in jail for bribery – so “this is not an academic matter” to the incumbent leader.
Still, the aura of success surrounding his Iran mission has changed things for him. And with the next election not due until the fall of 2026, he has room to breathe, politically.
“There’s no doubt that his brand has been enhanced tremendously,” says Miller. “He’s probably under less pressure now than at any time since the government was formed in December 2022.”
Iran: Khamenei is down but not out.
The Supreme leader is “categorically weaker” than he was before the conflict, says Dr. Saram Vakil, an Iran expert at the London-based think tank Chatham House.
The reasons are clear: the war significantly damaged Iran, and exposed its military vulnerability. The Islamic Republic lost control of its own skies, its nuclear facilities were heavily damaged. Its response to Israel inflicted little damage, and, after the US airstrikes, Tehran responded with a feeble, face-saving wave of airstrikes against the US base in Qatar – and they reportedly told Trump ahead of time.
Khamenei tried to claim victory, saying that Tehran had “dealt a severe slap to the face of America,” in his first public address after the ceasefire was announced. However, the 86-year-old “looked very diminished” in the video, per Vakil. He was reportedly hastening succession talks during the conflict while hiding in a bunker.
In a bid to quell any potential uprising and maintain the regime’s existence – Khamenei’s top priority – the Islamic Republic has turned to a familiar tactic: mass arrests, executions, and military deployments. Boosting the public’s support for the regime, though, will require a lot more work.
“He has long been criticized, and I think long been held as responsible for the economic stagnation [and] the country’s standoff with the international community. He’s not a bold leader,” Vakil said of the Ayatollah. “There are no clear or easy avenues for him personally or for the state to re-legitimize themselves.”
There is a saving grace for Khamenei: Iran’s powerful military – the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps – is unlikely to overthrow him, per Vakil, and his nuclear facilities remain somewhat intact, at least according to one intercepted call. The supreme leader is down, but not yet out.
United States: Trump celebrates, but also treads carefully
Though initial intelligence assessments were mixed about the extent of the damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities, no American troops died during the attacks and Iran’s immediate response was minor and contained. That seemed to put to rest dire warnings, including from within Trump’s own MAGA camp, that involving the US in another Middle East war would, in the words of former Trump adviser Steve Bannon, “tear the country apart.”
But if the mission didn’t rip up the country, it also hardly united it, according to Larry Sabato, a US politics professor at the University of Virginia.
“Look at the surveys. There’s almost always a rally-around-the flag effect [after a war]. Not this time!”
A CNN/SRSS poll found that just 44% of Americans supported Trump’s strikes on Iran. But his approval ratings – currently in the low 40s – were unmoved by the mission, suggesting that in the end, the relatively limited military engagement has had little political effect.
In fact, if there is something Middle East-related that could cause significant damage to Trump’s ratings, per Sabato, it would be the US getting more involved in the conflict – something few Americans want.
As such, the US president would be wise not to invest too much energy in resolving tensions between Israel and Iran, meaning he will have to work hard to preserve a shaky peace between two bitter adversaries
“Trump’s not going to be the next FDR,” Sabato told GZERO, referencing President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s prominence in the American imagination as a great statesman of both war and peace. “Biden made that mistake – thinking he would be the next FDR – but I don’t think that Trump’s going to be that stupid.”A banner announces the construction of a photovoltaic solar farm in Cabaiguan, Cuba, on May 21, 2025.
HARD NUMBERS: China becomes top Cuba benefactor, Canada backs down, & More
55: China is financing 55 new solar power projects in Cuba this year, the latest sign of how it is overtaking Russia as the crisis-wracked island’s main benefactor. Some of Moscow’s recent projects in the communist country have stalled: a Russian firm pledged two years ago to revitalize a sugar mill that once employed 2,000 people, but it still sits idle.
3%: In a win for US President Donald Trump, Canada walked back on its 3% Digital Services Tax that prompted the United States to suspend trade talks on Friday. The tax, which disproportionately affected American technology firms, was set to take effect on Monday.
71: Israel’s strike last Tuesday allegedly killed 71 people at a notorious detention facility in Tehran, per Iranian State Media. The prison houses thousands of political prisoners, including opposition politicians, journalists, and activists.
4,000: More than a third of Tuvalu’s population – around 4,000 residents – have applied for a landmark ‘climate visa,’ which grants Australian residency to migrants from Pacific Island nations battling rising sea levels. NASA scientists expect that the country’s main island, home to 60% of the population, will be fully submerged by 2050.
$80,000: US Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem reportedly re-routed $80,000 in political donations to a newly established personal company during her time as South Dakota’s governor in 2023. Noem’s lawyer said she “fully complied with the letter and the spirit of the law.”US President Donald Trump says that both Israel and Iran “don't know what the fuck they are doing” after violations of the ceasefire take place. Trump makes these remarks to the press as he boards Marine One for a trip to the NATO Summit on June 24, 2025.
Israel-Iran ceasefire: will it hold?
The Iran-Israel ceasefire that US President Donald Trump announced yesterday evening is hanging by a thread this morning. The Israelis accused the Islamic Republic of firing missiles at them after the ceasefire deadline, and Israel responded, striking a radar system near Tehran. Trump is big mad – four-letter-word mad, even.
Can Trump keep the peace? The US president spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday morning, urging him not to strike further at Iran. Israel’s initial riposte was limited, suggesting Netanyahu is OK with the truce for now, even if he might still like to weaken the Iranian regime further. Iran, for its part, seems to have little interest in continuing to fight – its missile arsenal is depleted, its launchers destroyed, and senior military leadership have been assassinated.
But tensions between all sides remain high. Tuesday morning’s flare-ups suggest Trump still has his work cut out if he wants to maintain a longer-term truce.A miniature statue of US President Donald Trump stands next to a model bunker-buster bomb, with the Iranian national flag in the background, in Kananaskis, Alberta, Canada, on June 19, 2025.
What We’re Watching: US’s Iran decision postponed, Court OK’s Trump’s use of the national guard in LA, Rwanda detains top opposition leader
Trump gives himself, and Iran, two weeks
US President Donald Trump said Thursday that he will decide whether to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities “in the next two weeks,” a move that re-opens the door to negotiations, but also gives the US more time to position military forces for an operation (and the expected retaliation). Speaking of negotiations, European leaders were reportedly set to meet with Iranian officials in Geneva today to explore a diplomatic solution to the crisis. Meanwhile the war itself rages on: Tehran struck a hospital in Be’er Sheva in southern Israel on Thursday, while Israeli forces bombed the unfinished nuclear power plant at Arak and struck industrial targets in Northern Iran. And Tehran is now rushing to export as much oil as possible as fears grow that the war could result in closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s biggest oil customer? China.
Court clears Trump’s control of California National Guard
A federal appeals court ruled Thursday that Trump acted legally when he took control of the California National Guard despite objections from the state’s governor. The decision overturns a lower court ruling from last week. Trump “federalized” the National Guard to quell protests and riots against his hardline immigration enforcement. The LA unrest has calmed – Mayor Karen Bass rescinded a curfew on Tuesday – but the court’s ruling sets a precedent Trump can point to in future protests against immigration or other aspects of federal policy.
Rwanda’s opposition leader arrested
Rwandan authorities arrested prominent opposition leader Victoire Ingabire on Thursday, alleging that she created a criminal organization and incited public unrest. Lawyers for Ingabire, who was jailed from 2012 to 2018, say the move is politically motivated. President Paul Kagame, who has ruled Rwanda for three decades since the 1994 Genocide, has won plaudits for resurrecting the economy and keeping the peace. But he brooks no dissent – last year he won the presidential election with 99% of the vote.
A satellite image shows the Natanz nuclear facility after an airstrike in Iran, on June 14, 2025.
What the world thinks of the Israel-Iran conflict
The Israel-Iran conflict continues to rage on: US President Donald Trump called for “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER” on Tuesday, while Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ruled out surrendering Wednesday morning. Iran is also considering bombing US bases.
Much of the world’s focus is, understandably, on what the United States will do next (for more, see here) – but there are other major powers with a big stake in this conflict too. Here’s a roundup of their views on the rapidly escalating conflict.
Russia on the fence. Moscow, long friendly with Tehran, has drawn even closer to the Islamic Republic since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, in large part thanks to Iran’s supply of drones. The two sides even signed a security agreement earlier this year. Yet with Iran now facing a bombardment, the Kremlin has offered little to Tehran other than verbal condemnation of Israel. That’s because… it’s complicated.
Iran’s downfall – coming after the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime last December – would mean the loss of another major Russian ally in the region. The Kremlin, though, has also long-sought to keep Tehran from going nuclear, and has been reluctant to furnish the Islamic Republic with certain weapons – in part because the Kremlin also maintains good relations with Israel. Putin must tread carefully here, but he is certainly on his back foot.
Risks for Beijing. China has publicly denounced Israel, but a more immediate concern is Iran’s oil supplies. Beijing now sources 16% of its seaborn crude oil imports from the Islamic Republic, and gets it at a discounted price. Smaller Chinese refineries have become reliant on Iranian oil, switching to this energy source in 2022 to protect their margins. If those supplies are cut – either by Israel or by Iran shutting the critical Strait of Hormuz in order to pressure the world into stopping Israel – it would be another hit to China’s already-vulnerable economy.
“China is quietly nervous, but doesn’t want to interfere,” says Eurasia Group’s Director of Analysis Marc Gustafson. “China gets a lot of oil from Iran and is worried Israel will strike the oil facilities. It also knows that Iran is a pariah state for most of the West, so it won’t be very vocal in defending the country.”
Europe backs Israel, but with some caveats On the surface, Europe is wholeheartedly backing Israel. The G7 – which includes four of the strongest and largest European countries – issued a joint statement at their summit this week that condemned Iran.
Still there are some differences of opinion. While Germany has praised Israel for doing the West’s “dirty work” and the UK signaled possible military support for the Israeli Defense Forces, French President Emmanuel Macron warned that regime change in Iran would cause “chaos.” His position has angered Trump.
Conflicted views in the Arab world. In public, countries in the Gulf and the Levant are criticizing Israel’s attacks on Iran. Privately, there may be more satisfaction than they let on. For nearly half a century, many Sunni Arabs have viewed Revolutionary Iran as a meddlesome and disruptive foreign power, fomenting proxy conflicts in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen and beyond.
Then there’s Syria, where the current government overthrew al-Assad’s brutal, Iran-allied dictatorship just six months ago. It’s no surprise that Damascus’s new leaders, resentful of Iran but also delicately smoothing ties with a belligerent Israel, have gone radio silent.
The one notable exception is Qatar. The oil-rich peninsula maintains cordial relations with Iran, and even shares a gas field with them – Israel bombed it on Saturday.
But if there is any schadenfreude among Arab nations, there is also wariness of the conflict exploding into a wider regional war that draws them in. As the Persian proverb goes: “Those who laugh on Friday will cry on Sunday.”US President Donald Trump gestures after returning early from the G7 Leaders’ Summit in Canada, at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, USA, on June 17, 2025.
Will the US play a Trump card in Iran?
As he left the G7 summit early on Monday, US President Donald Trump declared that he wants to bring a “real end” to the Israel-Iran conflict, and urged citizens of Tehran to evacuate. Washington also moved to bolster its military options in the Middle East.
What is Trump after? Speculation continues to swirl about whether the US will risk getting involved more directly in the destruction of Iran’s nuclear facilities, or whether Trump is using Israel’s current pummeling of the Islamic Republic as leverage for a wider negotiated settlement to the nuclear issue and the Iran-Israel conflict. The president emphasized that he doesn’t seek a mere ceasefire, but rather something “much bigger.” (For more on Trump’s options, see here.)
Meanwhile in Tehran: Iran, suffering from Israel’s aerial bombardment, reportedly signaled that it wants to return to the negotiating table, but remained unwilling to make new concessions.