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Malawi soldiers part of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) military mission for eastern Congo, wait for the ceremony to repatriate the two bodies of South African soldiers killed in the ongoing war between M23 rebels and the Congolese army in Goma, North Kivu province of the Democratic Republic of Congo February 20, 2024.
Congolese ceasefire collapsing as peacekeepers’ mandate extended
Fighters from the M23 rebel group in northeastern Congo have been targeting civilians in violation of a July ceasefire agreement, according to the Southern African Development Community, whose peacekeeping mandate there will expire on Dec. 15.
Background: For two years now, M23 forces backed by neighboring Rwanda have been fighting to establish control over mineral rich provinces in the region. The conflict has so far displaced at least 7 million people, and killed unknown thousands.
The SADC forces haven’t been able to push back the M23, but have at least managed to hold on to the key city of Goma, where hundreds of thousands of refugees are sheltering. Leaders from SADC countries are meeting in Zimbabwe on Thursday to discuss extending the mission, but should they fail to agree, M23 will have the upper hand.
UN Peacekeepers in the region are widely scorned by locals for their inability to keep ordinary people safe, while the DRC’s own army is poorly trained and deeply corrupt. Without SADC troops, Goma will likely fall, and Rwanda’s proxies will consolidate their hold on the region.
What does the Trump administration mean for the DRC? President Félix Tshisekedi has expressed excitement about working with Trump to deepen US-DRC relations, amid hopes the US will provide greater resources to help stabilize the country. However, what scant attention Trump gave to Congo on the campaign trail was overwhelmingly negative: Axios found that he cited Congolese migrants as criminals at least 29 times between Sept. 2023 and Oct. 2024, and accused the DRC of emptying prisons to send violent criminals to the US.
A renegade Congolese soldier stands at an outpost in Eastern Congo deserted town of Kanyabayonga December 16, 2004 which is deserted due to clashes in the area. The Democratic Republic of Congo has replaced its army commander in the eastern province of North Kivu, the scene of days of fighting between government reinforcements and rebel units, authorities said.
Humanitarian truce extended in Congo
A humanitarian truce in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo between government troops and M23 rebels backed by neighboring Rwanda was extended by 15 days, to Aug. 3, but fighting in the area continues, and the prospect of a wider conflict looms.
The background: Over a hundred rebel groups are fighting for control of mineral-rich regions in the eastern DRC along the Rwandan border. M23, formed by deserters from the DRC army, is the most powerful of the groups – its decision to launch an offensive to capture the provincial capital of Goma in 2022 reignited a decades-long conflict in DRC that has so far displaced more than 3 million people.
Rwanda’s history of ethnic tensions is part of the story. Thirty years ago, Rwanda’s Hutu majority committed a genocide against the Tutsi minority. Rwanda says some of the DRC-backed militias around Goma, such as the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda, are composed of Hutu genocidaires who escaped across the border to avoid justice.
The UN, meanwhile, says Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame, a Tutsi, has deployed up to 4,000 troops to fight alongside the M23, against DRC forces.
Risk of regional outbreak. Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi has threatened war against Rwanda in retaliation for Kagame’s involvement.
Rwanda's incumbent President and presidential candidate for the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) Paul Kagame waves to his supporters as he arrives for his final campaign rally in Gahanga, Kicukiro district in Kigali, Rwanda, July 13, 2024.
Rwanda votes: Kagame looks set to secure fourth term
Rwandans are heading to the polls Monday for a presidential election, and while official results are not expected until next Saturday, President Paul Kagame – who won with a suspicious 98.8% of the vote in 2017 – looks set to secure a fourth term.
Kagame first came to power in 1994, when he led the rebel militia and overthrew the Hutu government responsible for the Rwandan genocide that killed over 800,000 people. He’s been in power for over three decades and oversaw the removal of term limits via referendum in 2015.
Praised for returning stability to the country, and for its emergence as a financial hub, Kagame has also come under increasing international scrutiny for alleged human rights violations and for backing rebel groups in the neighboring Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Voter turnout is expected to be high, but against a backdrop of crackdowns on the opposition and political dissent, there are valid questions as to how free and fair the election is. Only two opposition candidates – the same two allowed to face Kagame in 2017 – were cleared by the state-run electoral commission this time. Any candidate who stood even a chance of being competitive against Kagame was barred, imprisoned, or has reportedly since disappeared.
We’ll be watching to see the level of voter turnout and victory and to see how Kagame uses his next term to shape Rwanda’s foreign policy.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen sit in a F-16 fighter jet at Skrydstrup Airbase in Vojens, Denmark, August 20, 2023.
Hard Numbers: Ukraine finally getting F-16s, Hooliganism ahead of Euro semifinal, Snake smuggling in China, Rwanda says no refund to the UK
60: NATO countries have started transferring US-made F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, the White House announced on Wednesday. Denmark, Norway, the Netherlands, and Belgium have pledged to provide roughly 60 of the fighter jets to Ukraine amid its war with Russia. Kyiv has been pushing for NATO countries to provide F-16s for well over a year. This first batch is being donated by the Dutch and Danish, though it’s unclear precisely how many are being sent at this time.
5: Hooliganism continues to plague the beautiful game … At least five people were injured in Dortmund, Germany, in clashes between Dutch and English football (soccer) fans ahead of the Euro 2024 semifinal between the two countries on Wednesday. Some of the violence was reportedly linked to Dutch fans attacking English fans in bars and attempting to steal flags.
100: In the immortal words of Indiana Jones, “Snakes … why’d it have to be snakes?” A man attempted to smuggle over 100 live snakes into China by hiding them in his pants but was caught by customs officials. He was apparently traveling with a wide variety of reptiles and packed them into drawstring canvas bags sealed with tape that were discovered in his pockets.
280 million: Rwanda says it’s not refunding the UK for a now-defunct deal for asylum-seekers to be deported to the landlocked African country. The UK provided Rwanda with roughly $280 million as part of the controversial scheme pushed by the prior Conservative government, though no deportations ever occurred, and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer says the plan is now dead. The UK on Monday expressed hope it would get some of the funds back, but Rwanda on Wednesday said that wasn’t part of the agreement. “If you come and ask for cooperation and then withdraw, that’s your decision,” said Alain Mukuralinda, a Rwandan government spokesperson, adding, “Good luck.”
Suspended Jewish Columbia and Barnard students participate in a press conference outside the president of Columbia University’s house on April 23, 2024, in Manhattan, New York.
Hard Numbers: Columbia punishes deans, Iran boosts missile output, UN accuses Rwanda of fighting in Congo, Colombia protects the forest
3: Columbia University on Monday removed three deans from their positions over antisemitic text messages they exchanged in a group chat during a late-May event about Jewish life on campus in the wake of protests about Oct. 7 and the war in Gaza. The three have been placed on indefinite leave. For our complete on-the-ground coverage of the upheaval at Columbia this spring, led by GZERO’s Riley Callanan, see here.
2: Iran has been ramping up its output of ballistic missiles at two key production facilities, according to satellite imagery. Tehran’s most prominent buyers of the missiles include the Houthi rebels in Yemen, Hezbollah paramilitaries in Lebanon and, of course, Vladimir Putin’s Russia, which signed a missile deal with Iran in 2022.
3,000-4,000: A new UN report alleges that 3,000-4,000 regular Rwandan Army forces are fighting alongside M23 rebels in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, a serious allegation that follows years of accusations that Rwanda is deliberately destabilizing its neighbor. Alarmingly, the report also implicates Uganda — which had deployed a force to fight the rebels as part of a regional military intervention to support Congo — in providing support for M23, essentially playing both sides of the conflict.
305: Deforestation in Colombia fell by more than a third last year, to just 305 square miles, the lowest figure on record. The decline comes atop a 20% fall the previous year. About half of the deforestation was in the Colombian Amazon. President Gustavo Petro has sought to rein in corporate access to the rainforest, but orders from local guerilla groups to stop cutting down trees have also helped. Experts warn that despite progress, droughts caused by the hot-weather El Niño weather pattern this year could push up deforestation.
A Congolese soldier stands guard as he waits for the ceremony to repatriate the two bodies of South African soldiers killed in the ongoing war between M23 rebels and the Congolese army in Goma, North Kivu province of the Democratic Republic of Congo February 20, 2024.
Congo demands world boycott of Rwanda’s mineral exports
The Democratic Republic of Congo has called for a global embargo of mineral exports from Rwanda, which it accuses of backing rebel groups along their shared frontier. Congo says that because Rwanda allegedly uses violent proxies to seize mines in Congo before exporting their products as though they came from Rwanda, all Rwandan ore should be considered “blood minerals.”
Two weeks ago, the M23 rebels, which have strong ties to Rwanda’s ethnic Tutsi elites, seized the mining town of Rubaya, a town in eastern Congo with deposits of the mineral tantalum. Tantalum is used in all sorts of high-tech applications, from the camera in your phone to the semiconductor chips crucial to the AI revolution, but it’s hard to find, and Congo is one of the richest sources in the world. In a letter last month, the Congolese government directly confronted Apple over its alleged use of pilfered tantalum, among other minerals, but the tech giant says an internal review revealed no blood minerals in its supply chains.
The logic of the boycott is simple: If Rwanda cannot profit from its alleged support of armed rebel groups in eastern Congo, it has significantly less incentive to fund the violence there. Nearly 6 million Congolese have already had to flee fighting, with 1.4 million swelling the encircled city of Goma. If the world heeds Congo’s call — and no major economy thus far has assented — it could tackle one of the root causes of this long-running tragedy.British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak speaks during a press conference at Downing Street in London, Britain, April 22, 2024.
Sunak says the UK is ready to deport asylum-seekers to Rwanda
On Monday, Britain's parliament voted to put asylum seekers on one-way flights to Rwanda after Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced that the UK would be ready to begin deporting asylum-seekers to Rwanda within the next few months.
Sunak has vowed to put a stop to the some 30,000 refugees who entered the UK by crossing the English Channel last year. The idea to send migrants to Rwanda was first introduced by former Prime Minister Boris Johnson in 2022. Under the plan, regardless of a refugee’s country of origin, they will be shipped to Rwanda and forced to submit their asylum applications there instead of in the UK.
The legislation is a response to a UK Supreme Court ruling that deemed such deportations a violation of international law because of Rwanda’s poor human rights record and because refugees would be at risk of being returned from Rwanda to their home countries, where they could face harm.
The plan is being criticized as a highly expensive gimmick for Sunak, who is facing significant political pressure as his party risks defeat in the upcoming general elections. The UK has already transferred $178 million to Rwanda although no refugees have been sent so far. He remains committed to the plan, asserting that preparations, including chartered jets and an airfield on standby, are complete for the flights expected to start in 10 to 12 weeks. However, UN rights experts have cautioned that airlines participating could face legal repercussions for complicity in violating international law.
Participants hold a candle light night vigil during a commemoration event, known as "Kwibuka" (Remembering), as Rwanda marks the 30th anniversary of the 1994 Genocide, at the BK arena in Kigali, Rwanda April 7, 2024.
30 years since Rwanda’s genocide, ethnic violence continues to plague Central Africa
Rwandan President Paul Kagame led a memorial ceremony on Sunday to mark the 30th anniversary of the genocide that killed more than a million people. Rwanda’s Hutu and Tutsi ethnic groups are no longer in open conflict in the country, but the legacy of the 100 days of slaughter that began on April 7, 1994, carries on in a conflict in the neighboring Democratic Republic of Congo.
The background: Conflict between Rwanda’s major ethnic groups dates back to the colonial period, when German and Belgian authorities privileged ethnic Tutsis over Hutus for choice jobs and social status. Hutus dominated government after achieving independence in 1962, leading to a long-running war meant to end with a power-sharing agreement in 1993.
However, the day after Hutu President Juvenal Habyarimana’s plane was shot down on April 6, 1994, Hutu extremists launched a long-planned assault against ethnic Tutsis and moderate Hutus. Over the next 100 days, over a million people were butchered in the violence before an ethnic Tutsi militia, the Rwanda Patriotic Front, invaded and overthrew the genocidaires. The Tutsi victory pushed over two million Hutu civilians into exile in neighboring countries.
The present: One of those neighboring countries was the Democratic Republic of Congo (also home to an indigenous Hutu population). Rwandan Tutsi-led forces invaded their gargantuan neighbor twice to chase down alleged genocidaires between 1994 and 2003.
Now, Rwanda backs the Tutsi-led M23 militia in the DRC, which Kigali allegedly uses to extract valuable mineral resources. Rwanda, in turn, accuses Kinshasa of backing the Hutu-led Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda, which seeks to overthrow Kagame. Civilians in the DRC are forced to bear the brunt of it: 250,000 civilians have been displaced in the last month as M23 presses toward the key city of Goma.