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U.S. President Donald Trump speaks with Democratic Republic of the Congo's Foreign Minister Therese Kayikwamba Wagner and Rwanda's Foreign Minister Olivier Nduhungirehe on June 27, 2025.
Mining for peace: can a US-brokered deal end the conflict in the DRC?
On June 27, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda signed a US-mediated peace accord in Washington, D.C., to end decades of violence in the DRC’s resource-rich Great Lakes region. The agreement commits both nations to cease hostilities, withdraw troops, and to end support for armed groups operating in eastern Congo within 90 days.
But the deal also includes a critical minerals partnership with the United States, granting it privileged access to the region’s vast cobalt, lithium, tantalum, and coltan reserves. These essential components of electric vehicles, semiconductors, and defense applications have come increasingly under Chinese control due to Beijing’s backing of Rwandan mining and refining operations, something Washington wants to change.
So is this deal about ending conflict – or countering China? Will it hold? And do peace pacts now always come with a price?
A conflict rooted in ethnic strife and resource competition
Tensions between the DRC and Rwanda date back to the 1994 Rwandan genocide, in which the country’s Hutu majority killed as many as 800,000 people in the Tutsi minority. Many of the Hutu militias responsible for those crimes then fled to eastern Congo, sparking regional wars that killed millions more.
In the past year, the M23 militia, a Tutsi-linked group reportedly backed by Rwanda’s current Tutsi-led government, seized key mining territory in the DRC’s North Kivu province, displacing over 450,000 people. The United Nations and human rights groups say Rwanda is using M23 to plunder Congolese minerals, a charge the Rwandan government denies. The conflict has killed thousands and displaced as many as 2 million people.
What’s in the peace deal – and what isn’t
The agreement includes a framework titled “Critical Minerals for Security and Peace,” which allows US companies to invest in Congolese mining and processing under joint governance with Rwanda. The region’s mineral wealth is estimated at $24 trillion.
Human rights watchdogs warn, however, that the deal lacks enforcement and oversight. It also doesn’t include provisions for accountability over war crimes, sexual violence, or illegal mining.
Will the deal last?
There are roadblocks ahead. The M23 group itself was not party to the agreement, and has rejected its terms. And neither Congolese President Félix Tshisekedi nor Rwandan President Paul Kagame were present at the signing ceremony, sending their foreign ministers instead; the two leaders will reportedly meet later with US President Donald Trump. Qatar, which hosted talks between the DRC and M23 in early June, did attend the signing ceremony and has pledged to continue diplomatic efforts in the region.
According to Tresor Kibangula, a political analyst at Congo's Ebuteli research institute, the deal imparts "a strategic message: securing the east also means securing investments.” But in a conflict with such deep roots, he questions whether the “economic logic” alone will suffice to bring a lasting peace.
A woman lights a cigarette placed in a placard depicting Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, during a demonstration, after the Hungarian parliament passed a law that bans LGBTQ+ communities from holding the annual Pride march and allows a broader constraint on freedom of assembly, in Budapest, Hungary, on March 25, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Budapest Pride parade, Rwanda and DRC peace agreement, SCOTUS ruling on Trump’s executive power
Pride and Politics: the drama in Budapest
Hungary’s capital will proceed with Saturday’s Pride parade celebrating the LGBTQ+ community, despite the rightwing national government’s recent ban on the event. The culture war between the city and “illiberal” Prime Minister Viktor Orbán reflects wider urban/rural splits in Hungary. The European Union has urged Orbán to lift the ban and is probing the legality of Hungarian police using facial recognition to identify attendees. Many countries have expressed support for the parade, but the Trump administration, sharing Orbán’s misgivings about LGBTQ+ culture, is not among them.
Rwanda and DRC to sign Trump-brokered peace deal
Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo will sign a peace deal in Washington today, hoping to end a conflict that has killed thousands and displaced millions. The war in a nutshell: Rwanda has backed rebel groups that have seized large swaths of territory in the mineral-rich DRC. The Trump administration, which wants a Nobel peace prize for its efforts, brokered the agreement in part to gain access to DRC critical minerals, but critics say the economic terms are still vague.
US Supreme Court hands Trump a win versus the judiciary
The US top court on Friday limited federal judges’ ability to issue nationwide injunctions against executive orders, but did not rule directly on the constitutionality of President Donald Trump’s order to limit birthright citizenship. The 6-3 decision, which halts Trump’s citizenship order for 30 days while other legal challenges play out, was split along ideological lines – the liberal minority dissented. The ruling could affect the roughly 255,000 children born annually in the United States to parents who are neither citizens nor permanent residents, per a Penn State estimate. But it also expands executive power vis-a-vis the courts more broadly. For more on this, watch Ian Bremmer’s recent interview with Yale Law School senior fellow Emily Bazelon.A miniature statue of US President Donald Trump stands next to a model bunker-buster bomb, with the Iranian national flag in the background, in Kananaskis, Alberta, Canada, on June 19, 2025.
What We’re Watching: US’s Iran decision postponed, Court OK’s Trump’s use of the national guard in LA, Rwanda detains top opposition leader
Trump gives himself, and Iran, two weeks
US President Donald Trump said Thursday that he will decide whether to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities “in the next two weeks,” a move that re-opens the door to negotiations, but also gives the US more time to position military forces for an operation (and the expected retaliation). Speaking of negotiations, European leaders were reportedly set to meet with Iranian officials in Geneva today to explore a diplomatic solution to the crisis. Meanwhile the war itself rages on: Tehran struck a hospital in Be’er Sheva in southern Israel on Thursday, while Israeli forces bombed the unfinished nuclear power plant at Arak and struck industrial targets in Northern Iran. And Tehran is now rushing to export as much oil as possible as fears grow that the war could result in closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s biggest oil customer? China.
Court clears Trump’s control of California National Guard
A federal appeals court ruled Thursday that Trump acted legally when he took control of the California National Guard despite objections from the state’s governor. The decision overturns a lower court ruling from last week. Trump “federalized” the National Guard to quell protests and riots against his hardline immigration enforcement. The LA unrest has calmed – Mayor Karen Bass rescinded a curfew on Tuesday – but the court’s ruling sets a precedent Trump can point to in future protests against immigration or other aspects of federal policy.
Rwanda’s opposition leader arrested
Rwandan authorities arrested prominent opposition leader Victoire Ingabire on Thursday, alleging that she created a criminal organization and incited public unrest. Lawyers for Ingabire, who was jailed from 2012 to 2018, say the move is politically motivated. President Paul Kagame, who has ruled Rwanda for three decades since the 1994 Genocide, has won plaudits for resurrecting the economy and keeping the peace. But he brooks no dissent – last year he won the presidential election with 99% of the vote.
Street vendors stand on a pirogue with goods to be sold at Kituku market, on the bank of Lake Kivu, in Goma, which is controlled by M23 rebels, in North Kivu province of the Democratic Republic of Congo March 21, 2025.
Small Country, Big Story: How Rwanda’s trying to woo Washington
As Western nations adopt increasingly hardline stances on migration, Rwanda has positioned itself to capitalize on these concerns by offering to accept deportees in exchange for payment.
In 2022, then-UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson struck a $385 million deal with Rwanda to house and process thousands of asylum-seekers. The controversial plan ultimately cost British taxpayers an estimated $949 million before it was scrapped in 2024 by Prime Minister Keir Starmer, following two years of legal challenges and widespread criticism over Rwanda’s status as an unsafe destination for migrants. The UK received no refund.
Now, with the Trump administration intensifying its crackdown on migration, Rwanda is exploring a similar arrangement with the United States. The potential deal comes as the White House faces mounting scrutiny for a series of hardline measures, including the high-profile deportation of 238 immigrants to a maximum-security prison in El Salvador, proposals to reopen Alcatraz and Guantanamo Bay as detention sites, and even offering migrants $1,000 to voluntarily leave the country.
But for Rwanda, there’s more to gain than just money. These talks are unfolding as the US increasingly takes on the role of power broker in the simmering conflict between Rwanda and its neighbor, the Democratic Republic of Congo. Over the past year, Rwanda has backed the M23 rebel group, helping it seize control of vast territories in the DRC’s mineral-rich eastern provinces — home to an estimated $20 trillion in untapped natural resources.
The United Nations has labeled M23 a proxy force for Rwanda, accusing the group of being led by Rwandan officers and armed by the Rwandan military. President Paul Kagame has repeatedly denied any support for M23. Yet, according to numerous intelligence analysts, diplomats, researchers, and humanitarian workers, the presence of thousands of Rwandan troops in Goma and elsewhere in eastern Congo leaves little doubt about Rwanda’s role.
M23’s gains have included the capture of key mining hubs, giving the group control over significant reserves of gold, cobalt, and coltan – a mineral critical to the production of smartphones, medical devices, and explosives.
The US is now weighing a critical minerals agreement with the DRC, under which American companies would gain access to Congolese mines in exchange for helping secure the region against rebel forces. Washington has a strong incentive to expand its footprint in the DRC to counter China’s growing dominance: Chinese firms already hold a major share of mining contracts in the country, and the DRC produces roughly 70% of the world’s cobalt – a vital component of electric vehicle batteries. The world’s largest cobalt mine, located in DRC, is operated by a Chinese company.
As the US and other international actors broker peace talks between M23 and Rwanda, both sides are maneuvering for leverage. While the DRC courts American support by offering access to critical minerals, Rwanda may be betting that a migration deal with Washington could bolster its standing in the region.
Members of the M23 rebel group stand guard at the opening ceremony of Caisse Generale d'epargne du Congo (CADECO) which will serve as the bank for the city of Goma where all banks have closed since the city was taken by the M23 rebels, in Goma, North Kivu province in the East of the Democratic Republic of Congo, April 7, 2025.
Does the Congo truce portend peace? Or a potential civil war?
The Democratic Republic of the Congo and an alliance of militias led by the notorious M23 rebels announced a ceasefire on Thursday after talks in Qatar and, after three years of violence, said they would work toward a permanent truce. Meanwhile, Congo will reportedly sign a broad declaration of principles on a minerals deal with Rwanda on Friday in Washington, DC. The UN, US, EU, and other governments accuse Rwanda of using M23 to control valuable mines in Congo, but Washington is in the midst of talks with Congo to secure access to those same minerals, for which a deal with Rwanda is a necessary first step.
M23 recently seized the two principal cities in northeastern Congo, Goma, and Bukavu. At least six previous ceasefires in the long-running conflict have failed, turning hundreds of thousands of people into refugees and exposing them to violence, hunger, lack of shelter, and pervasive sexual exploitation.
Poorly trained and equipped Congolese troops have proven ineffective at fighting the rebels, and UN peacekeepers in the region are widely distrusted — even hated — by locals. A South African-led multinational force that held Goma for over a year was surrounded and pushed back in January; by March, they had completely withdrawn.
With Congo’s military situation in such disarray, a truce may be President Felix Tshisekedi’s only option, but his former ally-turned-archrival Joseph Kabila is proving a thorn in his side. Kabila, who ruled the DRC as president from 2001 to 2019 before going into exile in 2023, has reportedly been spotted in M23-controlled Goma. He has long accused Tshisekedi of mishandling the M23 situation — and we’re watching whether he uses this opportunity to launch a play for power.Congolese and Belgian citizens take part in a protest in Brussels, while clashes between M23 rebels and the Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of Congo take place in DRC.
Peace talks collapse between M23 rebels and DRC, diplomats expelled
Rwandan-backed M23 rebels have withdrawn from peace talks with the Democratic Republic of Congo that were set to start Tuesday in Angola, citing sanctions imposed by the European Commission on Rwandan officials for plundering mineral wealth in the DRC. This is the second time talks have collapsed since December, when they were canceled after Rwanda demanded a direct dialogue between the DRC and the M23 rebels, which DRC President Félix Tshisekedi refused.
In a related development, Rwanda severed diplomatic ties with Belgium, which had urged the Commission to impose the sanctions, accusing Brussels of “consistently undermining” Rwanda in forums like the EC “using lies and manipulation” in an attempt to “sustain its neo-colonial delusions.” Belgium subsequently declared Rwandan diplomats persona non grata and described Rwanda’s response as “disproportionate.”
What’s behind the conflict? Low-level violence in the DRC has persisted for three decades, killing six million people and displacing millions of others, but it increased again last November. This year, M23 seized the strategic cities of Goma and Bukavu, resulting in thousands of fatalities and displacing hundreds of thousands of people.
The rebels claim the DRC harbors anti-Rwanda rebels linked to the Hutu genocide of the Tutsis in 1994. The DRC also has deposits of gold and critical minerals, which M23 seeks to appropriate – it already reportedly earns $300,000 a month from territory it controls in the eastern part of the country.
Health workers bring a patient for surgery, at the CBCA Ndosho Hospital, a few days after the M23 rebel group seized the town of Goma, in Goma, North Kivu province in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, on Feb. 1, 2025.
Rebels advance, diplomacy stalls in the DRC
Is diplomacy an option at all? On Friday, the 16-nation South African Development Community called for a summit with eight member countries of the East African Community to “deliberate on the way forward regarding the security situation in the DRC. Rwandan leader Paul Kagame skipped the virtual meeting but was present at an earlier one on Wednesday, which DRC President Felix Tshisekedi did not attend. While Kigali expressed support for a summit, other states accuse it of backing M23 – something it denies.
How is the international community reacting? Germany has canceled aid discussions with Rwanda, and the United Kingdom is reevaluating its assistance as well. US President Donald Trump described the crisis this week as a “very serious problem,” and the State Department has advised US citizens to evacuate. But Western governments’ long-running support for Rwanda is tempering their response – creating the potential for China and Russia to gain more regional influence.
DeepSeek puts US-China relations on edge
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
How is China's AI app DeepSeek disrupting the AI industry?
It certainly seems to be making people concerned that the Chinese are a lot closer to the Americans and the Trump administration is not sleeping on this. They clearly feel that China is technologically very capable, very advanced. Frankly, different than Biden felt when he first became president, though he got up to speed on that pretty quickly. And I think that's going to lead to a much tougher competition between the United States and China. Those that think that a deal is coming, that Trump is going to engage with China because he wants to find a way to not have to put tariffs on, I don't think that's going to happen because you're going to have so much more efforts to contain the Chinese in all sorts of areas of advanced technology broadly speaking.
They are way ahead in data. The Americans are ahead in compute, and they're both going to lean into the opportunities that they have. And the Americans are going to use their firepower from a government perspective with other countries around the world as well. That's what I think.
Trump has issued a 90-day pause on nearly all US foreign aid. What's the likelihood it'll be extended beyond that?
I don't know how long it's going to be extended, but I do know that so many of the contractors that are involved, for example, USAID, which is like half of their capable workforce, are gone. And within 30 days they then lose their security clearances and they're not going to have capability to execute. So I think there will be permanent damage to the ability of the Americans to actually get a lot of development programs done around the world, and this is an important piece of US soft power.
And if the Americans aren't doing it, other countries around the world will, most particularly China,. This is an opportunity for the Chinese to have more influence, especially in the Global South than the United States. And this is pennywise and pound foolish for the Americans. And unlike the suspension of domestic support and funding and programs, which led to a whole bunch of outrage and then the order was rescinded, on foreign aid there's not a lot of domestic outrage. And companies don't want to stick their necks out because they think that they're going to get whacked hard by the Trump administration. So, I think it's more likely to have a longer-term impact.
What do I make of the Rwandan-backed rebels' advancements in Congo?
Definitely it is expanding the civil war. A lot of Congolese are really unhappy that this is happening with the support of external actors. You've seen a bunch of embassies in Congo ransacked, a lot of riots as a consequence, and not a lot of interest in trying to resolve the problem other than from folks like the United Nations who are pretty weak on the ground. So like we're seeing in Sudan, in Congo, an expanding civil war that is causing a lot of humanitarian hardship and havoc. That's it for me, and I'll talk to you all real soon.