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Members of the M23 rebel group stand guard at the opening ceremony of Caisse Generale d'epargne du Congo (CADECO) which will serve as the bank for the city of Goma where all banks have closed since the city was taken by the M23 rebels, in Goma, North Kivu province in the East of the Democratic Republic of Congo, April 7, 2025.
Does the Congo truce portend peace? Or a potential civil war?
The Democratic Republic of the Congo and an alliance of militias led by the notorious M23 rebels announced a ceasefire on Thursday after talks in Qatar and, after three years of violence, said they would work toward a permanent truce. Meanwhile, Congo will reportedly sign a broad declaration of principles on a minerals deal with Rwanda on Friday in Washington, DC. The UN, US, EU, and other governments accuse Rwanda of using M23 to control valuable mines in Congo, but Washington is in the midst of talks with Congo to secure access to those same minerals, for which a deal with Rwanda is a necessary first step.
M23 recently seized the two principal cities in northeastern Congo, Goma, and Bukavu. At least six previous ceasefires in the long-running conflict have failed, turning hundreds of thousands of people into refugees and exposing them to violence, hunger, lack of shelter, and pervasive sexual exploitation.
Poorly trained and equipped Congolese troops have proven ineffective at fighting the rebels, and UN peacekeepers in the region are widely distrusted — even hated — by locals. A South African-led multinational force that held Goma for over a year was surrounded and pushed back in January; by March, they had completely withdrawn.
With Congo’s military situation in such disarray, a truce may be President Felix Tshisekedi’s only option, but his former ally-turned-archrival Joseph Kabila is proving a thorn in his side. Kabila, who ruled the DRC as president from 2001 to 2019 before going into exile in 2023, has reportedly been spotted in M23-controlled Goma. He has long accused Tshisekedi of mishandling the M23 situation — and we’re watching whether he uses this opportunity to launch a play for power.Congolese and Belgian citizens take part in a protest in Brussels, while clashes between M23 rebels and the Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of Congo take place in DRC.
Peace talks collapse between M23 rebels and DRC, diplomats expelled
Rwandan-backed M23 rebels have withdrawn from peace talks with the Democratic Republic of Congo that were set to start Tuesday in Angola, citing sanctions imposed by the European Commission on Rwandan officials for plundering mineral wealth in the DRC. This is the second time talks have collapsed since December, when they were canceled after Rwanda demanded a direct dialogue between the DRC and the M23 rebels, which DRC President Félix Tshisekedi refused.
In a related development, Rwanda severed diplomatic ties with Belgium, which had urged the Commission to impose the sanctions, accusing Brussels of “consistently undermining” Rwanda in forums like the EC “using lies and manipulation” in an attempt to “sustain its neo-colonial delusions.” Belgium subsequently declared Rwandan diplomats persona non grata and described Rwanda’s response as “disproportionate.”
What’s behind the conflict? Low-level violence in the DRC has persisted for three decades, killing six million people and displacing millions of others, but it increased again last November. This year, M23 seized the strategic cities of Goma and Bukavu, resulting in thousands of fatalities and displacing hundreds of thousands of people.
The rebels claim the DRC harbors anti-Rwanda rebels linked to the Hutu genocide of the Tutsis in 1994. The DRC also has deposits of gold and critical minerals, which M23 seeks to appropriate – it already reportedly earns $300,000 a month from territory it controls in the eastern part of the country.
Health workers bring a patient for surgery, at the CBCA Ndosho Hospital, a few days after the M23 rebel group seized the town of Goma, in Goma, North Kivu province in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, on Feb. 1, 2025.
Rebels advance, diplomacy stalls in the DRC
Is diplomacy an option at all? On Friday, the 16-nation South African Development Community called for a summit with eight member countries of the East African Community to “deliberate on the way forward regarding the security situation in the DRC. Rwandan leader Paul Kagame skipped the virtual meeting but was present at an earlier one on Wednesday, which DRC President Felix Tshisekedi did not attend. While Kigali expressed support for a summit, other states accuse it of backing M23 – something it denies.
How is the international community reacting? Germany has canceled aid discussions with Rwanda, and the United Kingdom is reevaluating its assistance as well. US President Donald Trump described the crisis this week as a “very serious problem,” and the State Department has advised US citizens to evacuate. But Western governments’ long-running support for Rwanda is tempering their response – creating the potential for China and Russia to gain more regional influence.
DeepSeek puts US-China relations on edge
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
How is China's AI app DeepSeek disrupting the AI industry?
It certainly seems to be making people concerned that the Chinese are a lot closer to the Americans and the Trump administration is not sleeping on this. They clearly feel that China is technologically very capable, very advanced. Frankly, different than Biden felt when he first became president, though he got up to speed on that pretty quickly. And I think that's going to lead to a much tougher competition between the United States and China. Those that think that a deal is coming, that Trump is going to engage with China because he wants to find a way to not have to put tariffs on, I don't think that's going to happen because you're going to have so much more efforts to contain the Chinese in all sorts of areas of advanced technology broadly speaking.
They are way ahead in data. The Americans are ahead in compute, and they're both going to lean into the opportunities that they have. And the Americans are going to use their firepower from a government perspective with other countries around the world as well. That's what I think.
Trump has issued a 90-day pause on nearly all US foreign aid. What's the likelihood it'll be extended beyond that?
I don't know how long it's going to be extended, but I do know that so many of the contractors that are involved, for example, USAID, which is like half of their capable workforce, are gone. And within 30 days they then lose their security clearances and they're not going to have capability to execute. So I think there will be permanent damage to the ability of the Americans to actually get a lot of development programs done around the world, and this is an important piece of US soft power.
And if the Americans aren't doing it, other countries around the world will, most particularly China,. This is an opportunity for the Chinese to have more influence, especially in the Global South than the United States. And this is pennywise and pound foolish for the Americans. And unlike the suspension of domestic support and funding and programs, which led to a whole bunch of outrage and then the order was rescinded, on foreign aid there's not a lot of domestic outrage. And companies don't want to stick their necks out because they think that they're going to get whacked hard by the Trump administration. So, I think it's more likely to have a longer-term impact.
What do I make of the Rwandan-backed rebels' advancements in Congo?
Definitely it is expanding the civil war. A lot of Congolese are really unhappy that this is happening with the support of external actors. You've seen a bunch of embassies in Congo ransacked, a lot of riots as a consequence, and not a lot of interest in trying to resolve the problem other than from folks like the United Nations who are pretty weak on the ground. So like we're seeing in Sudan, in Congo, an expanding civil war that is causing a lot of humanitarian hardship and havoc. That's it for me, and I'll talk to you all real soon.
Protesters clash with riot police forces in front of the French Embassy in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo, on Jan. 28, 2025.
Goma falls as embassies attacked in Kinshasa
M23 rebels have seized the airport in Goma, in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and overrun the city in the worst sectarian violence since 2012. Streets are strewn with bodies, and there are reports of heavy gunfire, rape, and looting. Hospitals are under attack, and an Ebola research lab lost power, putting samples at risk, according to the International Committee of the Red Cross. Should the virus be released among the local population, the agency said the impact would be “unimaginable.”
Rwandan President Paul Kagame denies funding M23 or that Rwandan troops have entered Congo. But in the capital of Kinshasa, protests against alleged Rwandan interference turned violent on Tuesday, as crowds attacked the embassies of Rwanda, Uganda, Belgium, the Netherlands, and the US, accusing them of “complicity” in M23’s assault. Demonstrators also looted the Kenyan Embassy as well as local supermarkets, and set buildings on fire in a scene described as “total chaos.”
What’s the role of the West? The EU signed a strategic minerals deal with Rwanda in 2024 and the country has taken in asylum-seekers from Europe, making sanctions a complicated prospect and fueling accusations that the West is enabling the conflict to continue. France and the European Union condemned the attacks, as did US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in a call with DRC President Felix Tshisekedi on Monday, but we’ll be watching what further action Western governments are prepared to take if the violence escalates.Internally displaced civilians from the camps in Munigi and Kibati carry their belongings as they flee following the fight between M23 rebels and the Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, in Goma, Democratic Republic of Congo, on Jan. 26, 2025.
Goma under siege as DRC cuts ties with Rwanda
Keita made the remarks at a special meeting of the UN Security Council on Sunday, called after three peacekeepers from South Africa and Uruguay were killed in standoffs with M23. On Saturday, South African authorities reported that rebels had also killed nine more peacekeepers, from South Africa and Malawi, who were attempting to prevent the rebel advance.
What is the root of the conflict? M23, a Tutsi-led rebel movement, claims to defend Congo’s ethnic Tutsi population, but Kinshasa accuses Rwanda of using the group as a proxy for its territorial ambitions. After three years of hostilities, fighting ramped up in January and reached a breaking point on Saturday, when the DRC severed diplomatic ties with Rwanda. Over 400,000 people have been displaced since the beginning of the year, and the latest rebel advance has now sparked fears of a regional war.
FILE PHOTO: Members of the Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (FARDC) stand guard against the M23 rebel group in Lubero, North Kivu province of the Democratic Republic of Congo October 27, 2024.
Rwanda-backed rebels seize towns in Congo
The rebel March 23 Movement, aka M23, reportedly supported by Rwanda,captured the strategic town of Masisi in the Democratic Republic of Congo's North Kivu province from the army and pro-government militias on Saturday. Masisi, population 40,000, sits just 50 miles north of Goma, the provincial capital, home to two million Congolese — and is a key sanctuary for refugees.
The takeover comes just two days after M23 captured Katale, another town in North Kivu. Since 2021, the group has occupied vast areas of eastern Congo, displacing hundreds of thousands of refugees, and local leaderswarn of an escalating humanitarian crisis.
The Congo accuses Rwanda of using the rebels to loot its minerals including gold, cobalt, and tantalum, a charge Kigali denies. In December, Congo announced it was suing Apple for using such “blood minerals.” In response, Apple has stopped accepting tin, tantalum, tungste, and gold from both countries.
Meanwhile, talks between DRC President Felix Tshisekedi and Rwandan counterpart Paul Kagamewere canceled on Dec. 15 over disagreements about the terms of a proposed peace deal, and there is no sign they are resuming. We’re watching how far M23 goes, as even the scant attention paid to central Africa in Western capitals may diminish under a tumultuous Trump administration.
Malawi soldiers part of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) military mission for eastern Congo, wait for the ceremony to repatriate the two bodies of South African soldiers killed in the ongoing war between M23 rebels and the Congolese army in Goma, North Kivu province of the Democratic Republic of Congo February 20, 2024.
Congolese ceasefire collapsing as peacekeepers’ mandate extended
Fighters from the M23 rebel group in northeastern Congo have been targeting civilians in violation of a July ceasefire agreement, according to the Southern African Development Community, whose peacekeeping mandate there will expire on Dec. 15.
Background: For two years now, M23 forces backed by neighboring Rwanda have been fighting to establish control over mineral rich provinces in the region. The conflict has so far displaced at least 7 million people, and killed unknown thousands.
The SADC forces haven’t been able to push back the M23, but have at least managed to hold on to the key city of Goma, where hundreds of thousands of refugees are sheltering. Leaders from SADC countries are meeting in Zimbabwe on Thursday to discuss extending the mission, but should they fail to agree, M23 will have the upper hand.
UN Peacekeepers in the region are widely scorned by locals for their inability to keep ordinary people safe, while the DRC’s own army is poorly trained and deeply corrupt. Without SADC troops, Goma will likely fall, and Rwanda’s proxies will consolidate their hold on the region.
What does the Trump administration mean for the DRC? President Félix Tshisekedi has expressed excitement about working with Trump to deepen US-DRC relations, amid hopes the US will provide greater resources to help stabilize the country. However, what scant attention Trump gave to Congo on the campaign trail was overwhelmingly negative: Axios found that he cited Congolese migrants as criminals at least 29 times between Sept. 2023 and Oct. 2024, and accused the DRC of emptying prisons to send violent criminals to the US.