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U.S. President Donald Trump speaks with Democratic Republic of the Congo's Foreign Minister Therese Kayikwamba Wagner and Rwanda's Foreign Minister Olivier Nduhungirehe on June 27, 2025.

REUTERS

Mining for peace: can a US-brokered deal end the conflict in the DRC?

On June 27, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda signed a US-mediated peace accord in Washington, D.C., to end decades of violence in the DRC’s resource-rich Great Lakes region. The agreement commits both nations to cease hostilities, withdraw troops, and to end support for armed groups operating in eastern Congo within 90 days.

But the deal also includes a critical minerals partnership with the United States, granting it privileged access to the region’s vast cobalt, lithium, tantalum, and coltan reserves. These essential components of electric vehicles, semiconductors, and defense applications have come increasingly under Chinese control due to Beijing’s backing of Rwandan mining and refining operations, something Washington wants to change.

So is this deal about ending conflict – or countering China? Will it hold? And do peace pacts now always come with a price?

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A woman lights a cigarette placed in a placard depicting Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, during a demonstration, after the Hungarian parliament passed a law that bans LGBTQ+ communities from holding the annual Pride march and allows a broader constraint on freedom of assembly, in Budapest, Hungary, on March 25, 2025.

REUTERS/Marton Monus

What We’re Watching: Budapest Pride parade, Rwanda and DRC peace agreement, SCOTUS ruling on Trump’s executive power

Pride and Politics: the drama in Budapest

Hungary’s capital will proceed with Saturday’s Pride parade celebrating the LGBTQ+ community, despite the rightwing national government’s recent ban on the event. The culture war between the city and “illiberal” Prime Minister Viktor Orbán reflects wider urban/rural splits in Hungary. The European Union has urged Orbán to lift the ban and is probing the legality of Hungarian police using facial recognition to identify attendees. Many countries have expressed support for the parade, but the Trump administration, sharing Orbán’s misgivings about LGBTQ+ culture, is not among them.

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A miniature statue of US President Donald Trump stands next to a model bunker-buster bomb, with the Iranian national flag in the background, in Kananaskis, Alberta, Canada, on June 19, 2025.

STR/NurPhoto

What We’re Watching: US’s Iran decision postponed, Court OK’s Trump’s use of the national guard in LA, Rwanda detains top opposition leader

Trump gives himself, and Iran, two weeks

US President Donald Trump said Thursday that he will decide whether to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities “in the next two weeks,” a move that re-opens the door to negotiations, but also gives the US more time to position military forces for an operation (and the expected retaliation). Speaking of negotiations, European leaders were reportedly set to meet with Iranian officials in Geneva today to explore a diplomatic solution to the crisis. Meanwhile the war itself rages on: Tehran struck a hospital in Be’er Sheva in southern Israel on Thursday, while Israeli forces bombed the unfinished nuclear power plant at Arak and struck industrial targets in Northern Iran. And Tehran is now rushing to export as much oil as possible as fears grow that the war could result in closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s biggest oil customer? China.

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Street vendors stand on a pirogue with goods to be sold at Kituku market, on the bank of Lake Kivu, in Goma, which is controlled by M23 rebels, in North Kivu province of the Democratic Republic of Congo March 21, 2025.

REUTERS/Zohra Bensemra

Small Country, Big Story: How Rwanda’s trying to woo Washington

As Western nations adopt increasingly hardline stances on migration, Rwanda has positioned itself to capitalize on these concerns by offering to accept deportees in exchange for payment.

In 2022, then-UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson struck a $385 million deal with Rwanda to house and process thousands of asylum-seekers. The controversial plan ultimately cost British taxpayers an estimated $949 million before it was scrapped in 2024 by Prime Minister Keir Starmer, following two years of legal challenges and widespread criticism over Rwanda’s status as an unsafe destination for migrants. The UK received no refund.

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Members of the M23 rebel group stand guard at the opening ceremony of Caisse Generale d'epargne du Congo (CADECO) which will serve as the bank for the city of Goma where all banks have closed since the city was taken by the M23 rebels, in Goma, North Kivu province in the East of the Democratic Republic of Congo, April 7, 2025.

REUTERS/Arlette Bashizi

Does the Congo truce portend peace? Or a potential civil war?

The Democratic Republic of the Congo and an alliance of militias led by the notorious M23 rebels announced a ceasefire on Thursday after talks in Qatar and, after three years of violence, said they would work toward a permanent truce. Meanwhile, Congo will reportedly sign a broad declaration of principles on a minerals deal with Rwanda on Friday in Washington, DC. The UN, US, EU, and other governments accuse Rwanda of using M23 to control valuable mines in Congo, but Washington is in the midst of talks with Congo to secure access to those same minerals, for which a deal with Rwanda is a necessary first step.

M23 recently seized the two principal cities in northeastern Congo, Goma, and Bukavu. At least six previous ceasefires in the long-running conflict have failed, turning hundreds of thousands of people into refugees and exposing them to violence, hunger, lack of shelter, and pervasive sexual exploitation.

Poorly trained and equipped Congolese troops have proven ineffective at fighting the rebels, and UN peacekeepers in the region are widely distrusted — even hated — by locals. A South African-led multinational force that held Goma for over a year was surrounded and pushed back in January; by March, they had completely withdrawn.

With Congo’s military situation in such disarray, a truce may be President Felix Tshisekedi’s only option, but his former ally-turned-archrival Joseph Kabila is proving a thorn in his side. Kabila, who ruled the DRC as president from 2001 to 2019 before going into exile in 2023, has reportedly been spotted in M23-controlled Goma. He has long accused Tshisekedi of mishandling the M23 situation — and we’re watching whether he uses this opportunity to launch a play for power.

Congolese and Belgian citizens take part in a protest in Brussels, while clashes between M23 rebels and the Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of Congo take place in DRC.

REUTERS/Yves Herman

Peace talks collapse between M23 rebels and DRC, diplomats expelled

Rwandan-backed M23 rebels have withdrawn from peace talks with the Democratic Republic of Congo that were set to start Tuesday in Angola, citing sanctions imposed by the European Commission on Rwandan officials for plundering mineral wealth in the DRC. This is the second time talks have collapsed since December, when they were canceled after Rwanda demanded a direct dialogue between the DRC and the M23 rebels, which DRC President Félix Tshisekedi refused.

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Health workers bring a patient for surgery, at the CBCA Ndosho Hospital, a few days after the M23 rebel group seized the town of Goma, in Goma, North Kivu province in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, on Feb. 1, 2025.

REUTERS/Arlette Bashizi

Rebels advance, diplomacy stalls in the DRC

At least 700 people have been killed over the past week in Goma, the largest city in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. According to the UN, over 2,800 people have also been injured as Rwandan-backed M23 rebels took control of the city and are now reportedly moving south toward the city of Bukavu. Observers believe that M23’s war with government forces, which displaced 400,000 people in January alone, could quickly spiral into a regional war.
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- YouTube

DeepSeek puts US-China relations on edge

Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.

How is China's AI app DeepSeek disrupting the AI industry?

It certainly seems to be making people concerned that the Chinese are a lot closer to the Americans and the Trump administration is not sleeping on this. They clearly feel that China is technologically very capable, very advanced. Frankly, different than Biden felt when he first became president, though he got up to speed on that pretty quickly. And I think that's going to lead to a much tougher competition between the United States and China. Those that think that a deal is coming, that Trump is going to engage with China because he wants to find a way to not have to put tariffs on, I don't think that's going to happen because you're going to have so much more efforts to contain the Chinese in all sorts of areas of advanced technology broadly speaking.

They are way ahead in data. The Americans are ahead in compute, and they're both going to lean into the opportunities that they have. And the Americans are going to use their firepower from a government perspective with other countries around the world as well. That's what I think.

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