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Two horses on the loose bolt through the streets of London near Aldwych on Wednesday, April 24, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Horses stirrup trouble in London, Germany to resume UNRWA funding, Argentine students take to the streets, Suspected extremists arrested in Australia, Commodity prices direct inflation
5: Talk about a rough commute … Five military horsesescaped their handlers and galloped through London in a slightly terrifying rush hour spectacle, injuring several people and narrowly dodging crowds of innocent bystanders. Before being recaptured by handlers, the horses gallivanted through the center of town for two hours, traversing roughly six miles. Theimpact of Beyonce’s “Cowboy Carter” era should never be underestimated.
200 million: Germany plans to resume funding UNRWA – the UN’s main aid organization for Palestine — which it funded with over $200 million in 2023. The move follows the conclusion of an independent review stating Israel did not provide enough evidence of allegations of widespread UNRWA infiltration by terrorist militants that initially caused the suspension. More than a dozen countries paused funding as a result of Israel’s accusations. Germany will be joining Canada, Australia, and Sweden in resuming funding. Other major donors like the US and UK remain on pause.
100,000: Students are protesting nationwide in Argentina, and in a much bigger way than antiwarprotesters on US campuses. Police say 100,000 students and supporters (organizers say closer to half a million) took to the streets of Buenos Aires aloneon Tuesday in defense of free public universities. Annual inflation in Argentina is approaching 290%, and budget cuts are putting public universities in jeopardy.
7: Seven Australian teenagers werearrested Wednesday following a knife attack earlier this month that injured an Assyrian Orthodox bishop and priest at a Sydney church. Police said the suspects were motivated by religious and “violent extremist ideology.” Video of the attack was shared widely before Australian courts banned it from major social media platforms. Unsurprisingly, Twitter/X owner (and self-appointed free speech czar) Elon Musk wasnot too pleased about the order.
38: Geopolitical tensions — including the wars in Ukraine and Gaza — are puffing up commodity prices, which are currently still 38% higher than pre-COVID averages, according to a new report by the World Bank. That’s keeping inflation from falling — and that’s the benign scenario, where global crises don’t get any worse. If they do, the Bank warns, oil prices could surge above $100 per barrel, driving up global inflation by another full percentage point.
Europe welcomes US Ukraine package, but pushes to add even more aid
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics from Stockholm.
What's the European reaction to, finally, the decision by the US House of Representatives to give green light to military aid to Ukraine?
Well, obviously enormous satisfaction. We've been waiting for quite some long time. But it has to be said, however important this is, that it will take some time for it to reach the battle lines in the east of Europe. It's not enough. And, in the days before the US decision, that was a decision by the European head of state, the government, to increase European aid. There's already very substantial European aid packages there, of course, but more is needed primarily in the terms of our defense. Germany immediately decided to commit to further battery of Patriots. And, discussions are underway among European capitals to further Patriots and other deliveries that are necessary in order to, make certain to Mr. Putin that they will never win at some point in time, they simply have to cave back. And the last week was an important one.
What about the European aspirations of Georgia in view of the measures taken by its government?
Yeah, that's a big question. I mean, the Georgian government, a rather doubtful one, in my opinion, with this new foreign agents, Russian-inspired law against opposition is creating substantial doubts in European capitals, whether it was that wise to give the country candidate status. That has been done. But, let's see what happens now. It is certainly not going to be an issue of quick march for Georgia with the European Union in light of what we see happening in Tbilisi these days.
- Georgia’s parliament advances divisive foreign agents bill ›
- Russia invaded Georgia too, and it never left ›
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- Ian Explains: If the US steps back from Ukraine, can Europe go it alone? ›
- Why the US is sending aid to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan - GZERO Media ›
Lithuanian Defence Minister Laurynas Kasciunas, German Ambassador to Lithuania, Cornelius Zimmermann, Chief of the Lithuanian Armed Forces Valdemaras Rupsys and Chief of the German Army Lieutenant-General Alfons Mais attend a press conference in Vilnius, Lithuania, April 8, 2024.
Hard numbers: Germany stations troops in Lithuania, Navalny memoir emerges, Biden administration expands national parks, Israel and UN argue over truck counts
11: Before his death in an Arctic prison, Russian opposition leader Alexsei A. Navalny wrote a memoir about his life, political philosophy, and hopes for the future of Russia. The book is being finalized by his widow Yulia Navalnaya and will be released in 11 languages – including Russian – in October.
30: The Biden administration has said it plans to expand two national monuments in California as part of its goal of conserving 30% of America’s lands and waters by 2030. The San Gabriel Mountains, in Southern California, and Berryessa Snow Mountain National Monument about 80 miles northwest of Sacramento are both expected to become national monuments on Earth Day this year.
419 vs. 223: Israel and the UN this week offered starkly different accounts of how much humanitarian aid Israeli forces are allowing into the besieged Gaza Strip. The IDF said 419 trucks entered on Monday while UN agencies put the number at 223. The discrepancy is a little fuzzy but seems to arise from different ways of counting: the IDF counts all trucks, even if they aren’t full, while the UN counts full trucks that arrive at its warehouses and distribution centers. Prior to October 7th, about 500 trucks entered daily.African elephants drinking at waterhole in Mashatu Game Reserve, Botswana.
Horton hears a diplomatic snafu
Let’s talk about the elephant(s) in the room — all 20,000 — that Botswana’s leader is publicly threatening to unleash on German soil. President Mokgweetsi Masisi issued this warning after Berlin’s environment ministry, in the name of conservation, weighed a ban on hunting trophy imports from Africa: “If you like [elephants] so much, then please accept this gift from us.”
Masisi’s side: Botswana is home to over 130,000 elephants, more than any other country in the world. Herds can cause property damage, eat crops, and even trample residents, and Masisi says hunting is necessary to control the exploding population. Banning the trophies would also contribute to poverty, he said, as hunting can be an important source of income for rural communities.
Germany’s side: Animal rights groups argue that hunting elephants is cruel and should be banned, regardless of population size. A PETA spokesperson went so far as to say that hunting is merely “a hobby of rich, jaded people who have more money than morals.” Plus, the German Association for Animal Welfare insists that hunts exacerbate societal inequalities in communities instead of diminishing them.
What’s next: While Masisi assured that this “is not a joke,” German officials say Gaborone has “not yet contacted” them to discuss sending Dumbos to Deutschland.
SpaceX's next-generation Starship spacecraft atop its powerful Super Heavy rocket lifts off on its third launch from the company's Boca Chica launchpad on an uncrewed test flight, near Brownsville, Texas, U.S. March 14, 2024.
Hard Numbers: SpaceX has a rocky reentry, Norway to hit NATO target early, British MPs are OOO, Somalia debt is canceled, Berlin techno is protected
2: Norway announced that the country intends to meet its NATO defense spending target of 2% this year — two years ahead of schedule — citing a “serious” security situation. Sweden, the alliance’s newest member, says it will do the same. The two Nordic states can now rest assured that at least Donald Trump would protect them from a Russian invasion.
49: A new analysis found the workday for members of UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s parliament is 49 minutes shorter than the 1997-2023 average, clocking in at only seven hours and nine minutes long. With all that extra time on their hands, Kate Middleton should be found in no time.
99: This week, 99% of Somalia’s debt was canceled by the Paris Club — a group of officials from major creditor countries including the United States, Japan, and Russia. Somalia’s information minister, Daud Aweis, called the move a “big milestone in the country’s journey to financial recovery.”
150: The number of UNESCO heritage sites in Germany rose to 150, with six entities being added this week. Notably, an Intangible Cultural Heritage designation was given to Berlin’s techno scene for its contribution to German culture. Oonts Oonts.FILE PHOTO: German flag patches on Bundeswehr uniforms
Germany investigates hack of Ukraine weapons aid discussion
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz ordered an inquiry Saturday after a hacked conversation about German military aid to Ukraine was published on Russian state-run media. In a 38-minute exchange on the WebEx platform, German Air Force officers discussed using Taurus missiles against targets in Crimea, including the Kerch Bridge to Russia – despite a recent Bundestag vote against supplying the weapons to Kiev.
Moscow is using the leak to portray Berlin as an aggressor. In a Telegram post, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, now deputy head of the Security Council, wrote, “Our age-old rivals – the Germans – have again turned into our sworn enemies.”
The military implications
The incident has been labeled a “catastrophe” for German intelligence due to its use of an insecure communications platform, and it has reignited debate about arming Ukraine with long-range weapons. Kiev has received SCALP and Storm Shadow missiles with a range of 250 kilometers, but the Taurus’ 500-kilometer range would allow deep strikes into Russian territory, prompting fears of escalation and retaliation.
Ukraine has been requesting the Taurus since May 2023, and President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the Munich Security Conference that long-range weapons were urgently needed for his country to win the war. While Scholz had already indicated that Taurus was off the table, German officials say this latest incident was likely intended to cement that decision, to Kiev’s dismay.Markus Söder, the prime minister of Bavaria, welcomes US Vice President Kamala Harris at Munich Airport as a guest of the Munich Security Conference.
Powerful guests, packed agenda in Munich
The 60th Munich Security Conference is underway as world leaders gather in Germany to discuss diplomatic and military strategy.
US Vice President Kamala Harris will reaffirm Biden’s support for NATO after Donald Trumpthreatened to not protect members who fail to pay their dues. Recently impeached Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, who may symbolize US dysfunction to allies, will also be on hand.
With the second anniversary of Russia’s invasion looming, debates on the level of continued support for Ukraine will demand attention. Russia was not invited to attend, but President Volodymyr Zelensky will be there to woo allies. He’ll also stop in Paris to sign a security agreement with President Emmanuel Macron for long-term aid, including support for reconstruction and military assistance, but it is expected to stop short of a pledge to send weapons. Zelensky will also meet with Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, will advocate for a multipolar world before traveling to Spain and France for bilateral meetings.
Israel is sending President Isaac Herzog and three rescued hostages. Herzog is planning a series of cease-fire talks and will face questions about Israel’s attack on a main hospital in Gaza on Thursday amid growing concern for civilians’ safety.
Here are 4 things you need to know about the MSC. Don’t forget to RSVP to GZERO’s Protecting elections in the Age of AI event, live streaming from Munich on Saturday!Olaf Scholz popping out of a toaster, surrounded by burnt toast.
Why Olaf Scholz smells like toast
When Olaf Scholz replaced Angela Merkel as Germany’s chancellor in 2021, hopes were high, in Germany and beyond, that a shift to new leadership might reinvigorate the nation at the heart of Europe. The remarkable Merkel had led her center-right Christian Democrats, her country, and the EU through a series of crises during her 16 years in power. Scholz rose to the top three years ago by casting himself as both a steady pair of hands in the Merkel mold but also as a center-left leader with a progressive view of Germany’s future. When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Scholz surprised many with the boldness of his response. The “new era” he declared in Germany’s attitude toward Russia and the countries still trapped in its shadow defied his image as a skilled bureaucrat without a strong public voice or vision.
But as Chancellor Scholz prepares to visit Washington this weekend, he faces a rising tide of criticism back home. The German public mood has grown darker over the past year, mainly because the economy is limping, and inflation has taken a bite out of both consumers and industry. Workers are angry. Business leaders are frustrated. And the coalition Scholz formed to win power – an increasingly uneasy partnership of establishment socialists, ambitious Greens, and the fiscally hawkish, pro-business FDP – is wearing badly.
The poll numbers speak for themselves. In January, the government’s approval rating hit 17%, a record low. Scholz’s personal popularity hovered at 19%, the lowest mark for any chancellor in a quarter century. Finance Minister Christian Lindner (FDP) and Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) aren’t faring much better. Recent polls show the current three-party coalition’s expected vote total has dropped from a combined 52% in 2021 to just 32%. By itself, Scholz’s SPD is attracting just 15% support.
The center-right opposition, the CDU-CSU alliance, now leads the polls with 30%-34% of support. But Friedrich Merz, Angela Merkel’s successor as CDU chairman, isn’t much more popular than Scholz. Instead, it’s the far-right Alternative for Germany party, or AfD, that’s making headlines. Noisy recent protests in dozens of German cities make clear that the popularity of the AfD’s increasingly radical, openly xenophobic, anti-European, and pro-Russian platform has its limits, and all other parties now represented in parliament have pledged never to partner with them. But nationwide polls show the AfD’s support has grown from just 10.3% at the 2021 election to between 19% and 22% today.
The state of play
Now come the elections. First, the SPD expects a beating in June’s European Parliament elections and a humiliation this fall in eastern German states considered strongholds of the populist right. Germany’s next national elections (for the Bundestag, parliament’s lower house) must be held no later than Oct. 26, 2025, and will most likely occur in September next year.
Perhaps Scholz’s biggest challenge will be managing his increasingly unwieldy coalition with the Greens and FDP through this gauntlet of political tests. Much of Scholz’s weak image comes down to open public criticism from his own finance minister, the FDP’s Lindner, who has accused Scholz of creating a dysfunctional welfare state. The Greens, unsympathetic to Scholz’s need to carefully manage the country’s energy transition as Germany moved to halt hydrocarbon energy imports from Russia, have accused Scholz of being soft on the fight against climate change. The Greens’ insistence on shutting down the last of Germany’s nuclear power plants last year made matters worse.
And if the SPD takes the expected beatdown in European elections in June, some within the SPD may begin pushing for a change in party leadership to rescue its chances of survival in power.
What might save Scholz?
Scholz and his coalition smell like toast. But 19 months is a long time, and much will happen between now and the next national elections in fall 2025. A return of Donald Trump to power and/or shifts on the battlefield in Ukraine could offer Scholz opportunities to rally Germans to their flag – and, by extension, to the incumbent government.
Scholz’s best hope lies not in some newfound strength or a new harmony within his coalition. It’s the weakness of others that might still save him. In particular, the establishment center-right CDU/CSU faces its own tough challenge. While offering a vision of a stronger and more self-confident Germany, the party must distance itself from the AfD, which remains anathema to many German voters, and Merz may not be the man for the job. He has already pandered to AfD voters with comments about Muslims, migrants, homosexuals, and the Green Party that were ham-handed at best and deeply offensive to many Germans, and he’s not immune to an internal party leadership challenge either.
The longer-term challenge
The biggest challenge for the SPD in coming years will be similar to the one faced by center-left parties across Europe: Voters are drifting away in all directions. Some of the party’s working-class voters have moved from blue- to white-collar jobs and now see their interests differently than they did a decade ago. Others have moved to the right in the face of rising numbers of foreign migrants. Many younger voters are moving toward the Greens or even to the populist left Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, which represents a mix of welfare state generosity and sharp limits on immigration. The SPD has seen its party membership rolls cut nearly in half since the year 2000.
It’s a complex problem for even a skilled political leader, and Olaf Scholz has yet to prove he’s up to the task.