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Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz on stage at the Digital Summit 2023 in November.
Wie sagt man: Not cheap as chips?
It committed $10 billion for Intel, which is building factories in Magdeburg; $5 billion in subsidies for a new fabrication plant built by Taiwanese giant TSMC along with Dutch company NXP, and German firms Bosch and Infineon. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz even noted in July how impressive it was that “so many German and international companies are choosing Germany for the expansion of their semiconductor production.”
But last month, a German court ruled that Scholz’s government violated its constitutional powers when he moved $65 billion in unused funds earmarked for the COVID-19 pandemic to the “climate and transformation” fund. The bad news for chipmakers? That was the money earmarked for their subsidies.
Germany wants to position itself as particularly friendly to industry, not only courting multinational tech corporations willing to build manufacturing plants, but also — in a recent shock move — by throwing a wrench in EU plans to heavily regulate large language models like OpenAI’s GPT-4.
Trouble is, to run the high-powered AI models, developers need high-powered chips – whatever the cost.
How will Henry Kissinger be remembered in Europe?
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics from Stockholm.
How will Henry Kissinger be remembered in Europe?
There's always an amount of controversy around the person who's been around in politics in powerful positions for such a long time as he was. But primarily, I think he would be remembered as a great European. He was an American, no doubt. But he came out of the tragedy of Europe and he was deep concerned with all of the lessons that could be learned from the failure to preserve peace in Europe time after time. His first academic and his first book was about the Congress of Vienna. And then book after book after book, that was really around the same theme, how to preserve peace also in the age of nuclear weapons. And that, of course, from the European point of view, is not an insubstantial issue.
Is the nuclear renaissance going on in Europe?
Sort of. I would say. There are still countries that are very much opposed. The Germans are, the Austrians are, there might be others. But I noticed that in Dubai, COP28, there was now signed declaration by a number of European leaders as well to triple global nuclear power by 2050. So no doubt nuclear power will make a substantial contribution to the efforts to create a much greener and much more sustainable Europe in the decades to come.
UN workers arrive to distribute aid to Palestinians, who have fled their homes due to Israeli strikes, in Khan Younis in southern Gaza on October 23, 2023.
Germany thinks the UN should govern Gaza when the war ends
One of the most important, unresolved questions surrounding the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas is who will govern Gaza once the fighting finally stops.
Germany has proposed that the UN take control in the coastal enclave when the war ends, according to a document reviewed by Politico. The two-page proposal from Germany, dated Oct. 21, said this should occur in concert with “a carefully organized transition” toward Palestinian self-rule via elections with an international coalition providing security.
Germany presented this scenario as the most desirable in comparison to other options, including Hamas retaining control or the reoccupation of Gaza by Israel.
Israel recently said it would take indefinite responsibility for security in Gaza, leading the United States to warn the Israeli government against reoccupying the territory and President Joe Biden said yesterday a "real" Palestinian state must come after the war. Israel says it has no interest in governing Gaza after the war, but it’s unclear if it would welcome the idea of the UN taking control. Israel has often accused the UN of harboring bias against it.
Meanwhile, Palestinian leaders have pushed against any conversations on post-war Gaza until there’s a cease-fire. Abdalrahim Alfarra, the head of the Palestinian Mission to the EU, Belgium, and Luxembourg, told Politico it would be “unacceptable” for the UN to take control in Gaza.
If not the UN, then who?: It’s widely agreed that neither Israel nor Hamas should control the Gaza Strip. And Egypt, which borders Gaza, doesn’t want the job. The US has suggested the Palestinian Authority should play a key role in post-war Gaza, but the PA is unpopular with many Palestinians and could struggle to establish legitimacy. Along these lines, the UN could be the best option, at least temporarily, for providing a semblance of stability in a territory rocked by instability for decades.
Tens of thousands of Israel supporters march on the National Mall in Washington, DC, on Tuesday, Nov. 14, 2023.
Hard Numbers: March shows solidarity for Israel, US Army overturns convictions of Black soldiers, US inflation cools, EU falls short on artillery shells for Ukraine, House passes funding bill
100,000: Tens of thousands flocked to the National Mall in Washington, DC, on Tuesday to show their solidarity with the Jewish state amid its push to eradicate Hamas in Gaza following the Oct. 7 terror attacks. Several Jewish groups helped organize the event to demand the release of Israeli hostages and to push back against a rising tide of antisemitism. Organizers anticipated a crowd of 100,000 demonstrators, but some estimates suggested the turnout may have been nearly triple that.
110: The US Army has overturned the convictions of 110 Black soldiers who were charged with murder, mutiny, and other crimes following a 1917 riot in Houston. Nineteen of the soldiers were executed, marking the largest mass execution of US soldiers by the Army. Secretary of the Army Christine Wormuth said it was determined that the soldiers “were wrongly treated because of their race and were not given fair trials.” The records of these soldiers will be corrected to characterize their service as honorable, the Army said.
3.2%: Inflation is chilling out, in welcome news to Americans and their wallets. The Consumer Price Index rose 3.2% in October compared to a year ago, according to new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, down from the 3.7% year-over-year increase in September. Polling from the past year has repeatedly shown that inflation is the top concern for Americans, with many voters giving President Joe Biden low marks for his handling of the economy.
1 million: Germany on Tuesday said the EU is unlikely to hit a goal of providing Ukraine with 1 million rounds of artillery ammunition by March 2024. The announcement comes amid Kyiv’s continued push for more military aid for its ongoing war against Russian invaders. Meanwhile, there is dwindling support in the US for providing further assistance to Ukraine, as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky feels the pressure from his military’s stalling counteroffensive.
336: The GOP-led House on Tuesday passed a stopgap funding bill that would prevent a shutdown and fund the government into 2024. The bill passed 336 to 95, with 209 Democrats and 127 Republicans voting in favor. The measure, which is expected to pass in the Senate and be signed by President Joe Biden before the Friday shutdown deadline, would provide funding for some agencies until mid-January and others until Feb. 2.
Hundreds of Muslim activists gather to protest in solidarity in the wake of the conflict between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip outside the US embassy in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia on October 20, 2023
Hard Numbers: Malaysia backs Hamas, Democrats win key races, fighting in Ethiopia's Amhara region, South Africa’s highway terror, Europe invests in space
77 billion: Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim jeopardized his country’s $77 billion trade relationship with the United States this week by coming out hard in support of Hamas, with which Malaysia has long maintained ties. Anwar, who compared the group to Nelson Mandela, could run afoul of the Hamas International Financing Prevention Act and invite US sanctions on his country — but the rise of the Islamist PAS party and the fragility of his multi-ethnic coalition are pushing him to appeal to such sentiment despite his reputation as a liberal reformer.
3: Democrats won three major off-cycle elections in the US last night, taking the Kentucky governorship, keeping the Virginia state senate, and winning a ballot measure in Ohio to protect abortion rights. The wins come despite weak poll numbers for President Joe Biden, and seem to reinforce the view that GOP overreach on abortion helps turn Democrats out on voting day. For more on the long term consequences, read Eurasia Group expert Kylie Milliken's take.
3,000: Fighting between federal troops and local militias in Ethiopia’s Amhara region has displaced 3,000 people in recent months, according to the Ethiopia Human Rights Commission. From 2020-2022, Amharan troops helped the government to put down a rebellion by militants in the Tigray region, but since then they have refused orders to integrate with national security forces. As a result, government forces have begun cracking down on people suspected of supporting the Amharan militias.
280,000: South Africans suffered 280,000 carjackings between April 2022 and March 2023 (the latest period for which statistics are available) amid an epidemic of violent crime on the roadways that recently ensnared the country’s transport minister. More shocking: The figure for 2021/22 was even higher, with carjackings totaling 330,000.
340 million: France, Germany, and Italy agreed to jointly put up €340 million ($365 million) annually for European space exploration company Arianespace to launch its Ariane 6 rocket at least four times per year and another lighter launcher at least three times. The investment is intended to make Europe’s space sector more competitive with American firms like SpaceX.A ballot box is emptied and the counting of ballots begins. In Bavaria, the election for the 19th Bavarian state parliament took place on Sunday.
What We're Watching: Three votes that matter
The first took place on Sunday in Germany. In the states of Bavaria and Hesse, voters continued a trend we’ve seen in recent years in France, Italy, and several other European countries of abandoning traditional mainstream parties of both the left and right in a shift toward new names and faces.
Inflation, a stagnant economy, and rising anxiety over migration into the country are making life tougher on incumbents. The center-left parties that now govern Germany in coalition performed poorly, but the conservative Christian Social Union, which has governed Bavaria since the 1950s, also floundered, taking its lowest vote share in the southern state (37%) in more than half a century.
Public support in Germany is now moving toward populists. In particular, the populist Free Voters weathered an antisemitism scandal involving its leader to take more than 15% of the vote in Bavaria. The far-right Alternative for Germany party has seen its approval numbers surge alongside a rising number of foreign migrants entering the country. Its 14.6% vote share in Bavaria and 18.4% in Hesse show that the party, which has built a base of support mainly in Germany’s east, is beginning to post impressive numbers in the west.
The second noteworthy vote is expected to take place later this week inside the US House of Representatives, as the Republican majority tries to elect a new speaker to replace the ousted Kevin McCarthy.
For now, the lead candidates are House Majority Leader Steve Scalise of Louisiana and Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan of Ohio. Broadly speaking, Scalise is considered the more experienced legislator and dealmaker, while Jordan offers himself as an unapologetic partisan firebrand with the endorsement of former President Donald Trump.
It’s not clear that either man can win the 218 votes needed to become speaker this week, raising the possibility that interim speaker Patrick McHenry of North Carolina might be asked to hold down the job for several weeks, with a clearer understanding of his temporary legislative authority and its limits, as Republicans hash out their differences.
At stake is continued funding of the US government, ongoing US support for Ukraine, and a host of other critical issues.
Finally, voters in Liberia will elect a new president on Tuesday against a backdrop of the violent breakdown of democracy in several other West African countries. President George Weah wants a second six-year term, and the fragmentation of opposition support among 19 challengers might help him win in the first round.
The issues Liberian voters care about most are those that most directly impact their lives. Weah, a celebrated former footballer, can point to wider availability of affordable electricity and greater investment in new roads as accomplishments, but rising food prices have twice triggered major protests during his presidency and could again.
In this case, the vote itself will be a major accomplishment for Liberia. Just in the past five years, there have been coups or coup attempts in the West African states of Mali (twice), Niger (twice), Guinea, Gabon (twice), Burkina Faso (three times), and Sierra Leone. By contrast, Liberia has been a democracy at peace since the 2005 election of Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, who won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2011.
Weah’s election in 2017 was the first peaceful transition of power from one democratically elected president to another in Liberia’s history.
A Ukrainian soldier carries artillery shells to fire in the direction of Bakhmut as the Russia-Ukraine war continues in Donetsk Oblast.
Can Ukraine get needed weapons without McCarthy?
Kevin McCarthy being ousted as House speaker means Ukrainian troops may not get the gear they need when they need it.
For now, Patrick McHenry (R-NC) holds the post of Speaker Pro Tempore and is tasked with organizing the vote for a new House speaker — but given the slim paths to a win for other candidates, he may be in charge a while.
No matter who is holding the gavel ahead of the Nov. 17 funding deadline, they’ll need their head on a swivel, says Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group’s managing director for the US.
“Whoever the new speaker is will have to keep their eyes on the group of members that tossed out McCarthy, leaving them very little room to maneuver on spending issues,” he says.
The White House’s $24 billion request “could move on a bill to keep the government funded past Nov. 17, but it's not at all clear that House Republicans could pass such a bill, despite overwhelming bipartisan support in both chambers," Lieber adds.
Trying to move the funding through a one-off supplementary funding package could jeopardize the speaker’s position despite widespread bipartisan support, further lowering its odds.
The expected paralysis is confounding for European allies. Jan Techau, Eurasia Group’s director for Germany and former speechwriter for German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, says his former colleagues in Berlin are not sugarcoating the situation.
“There is grave concern that this latest development in the US would have, first of all, a dramatic impact on Ukraine itself, but by default then also put allies under pressure,” he says.
Germany, like many countries supporting Ukraine, is drawing on pre-existing stockpiles of weapons and ammunition, everything from artillery shells to main battle tanks, without replacing them quickly. Trying to make up for unexpected bottlenecks in US support – a virtually impossible task given the relatively meager size of European arsenals compared to America’s – by drawing those stocks down further imperils Germany’s own security, but Ukraine doesn’t have time to wait for new units to come off the assembly line.
Techau says it’s not realistic that European allies could find ways to replace US funding drawdowns. Besides, even if they found a way around any NATO member objections to directly funding US weapons aid to Ukraine or tried to purchase weapons on the open market, “it wouldn’t do the trick,” he says. He estimates that production limitations on weapons are roughly 75% of the problem.
“What you need is weapons on the shelf that you can take right away and give to somebody. Only the US has that,” he adds.
Jörg Prophet, AfD candidate for mayor in Nordhausen, stands in the city center.
Hard Numbers: German far right comes up short, Ukraine dreams of drones, a space rock arrives on earth, world trade slows
54.9%: In an upset, Jörg Prophet, of the far-right Alternative for Germany party, lost a promising bid for mayor of Nordhausen the office on Sunday, as incumbent Kai Buchmann kept his job, winning 54.9% of the vote. The AfD has been polling at 21.5% nationwide, but has even more support in Thuringia, which is where Nordhausen is located.
$1 billion: Ukraine wants a drone army, and it’s looking to spend more than $1 billion to get one. Drones, Ukrainian leaders say, are great for reconnaissance, dropping bombs, and self-exploding on impact – all useful things in Kyiv’s war of defense against Russia. But what are drones not so good at? Holding territory.
6.21 billion: That’s how many kilometers (3.86 billion miles) a NASA capsule traveled to deliver the largest-ever asteroid sample to American soil. The capsule landed in a Utah desert on Sunday. Scientists hope the sample will help us better understand how the solar system formed and why life occurred on Earth.
3.2%: World trade volumes dropped 3.2% in July compared to the same month last year — the steepest decline in almost three years. High inflation is crushing demand for exports, while the resulting interest rate hikes are choking off credit, fueling fears of a global economic slowdown.