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French far-right Rassemblement National (RN) party leader Marine Le Pen and party President Jordan Bardella address militants listens after French President announced he is calling for new general elections on June 30, during an evening gathering on the final day of the European Parliament election, at the Pavillon Chesnaie du Roy in Paris, on June 9, 2024.
Left in the dust: European voters swing right
Europe took a hard right turn in European Parliament elections this weekend, dealing a substantial blow to key EU leaders German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron, prompting the latter to call early elections.
In France, Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally party surged to 31.5% support – more than twice as much as Macron’s Renaissance coalition, with 14.5%. Close behind are the Socialists and their lead candidate Raphaël Glucksmann with 14%.
A sober-looking Macron took to French television to dissolve parliament and called for elections on June 30, with a second round on July 7. The outcome of the EU elections, he said, was “not a good result for parties who defend Europe.” This is a gamble for Macron: A similar far-right wave in the French parliamentary election could see his party lose its majority.
In Germany, projections show the far-right Alternative for Germany set to secure second place with 16.5% of the vote, a record high. Support for Scholz’s Social Democratic Party and coalition partner Free Democratic Party declined, securing 14% and 5% of the vote, respectively. And Germany’s Greens took the biggest hit, dropping a whopping 8.5 percentage points to 12%, as cash-strapped voters spurned costly environmental policies.
Coalition time: Post-election, European political parties realign in blocs in the EU Parliament. The largest, the center-right European People’s Party, has recently shifted right on issues of security, climate, and migration, and could swing further to the right if joined by Giorgia Meloni’s far-right Brothers of Italy. Another scenario would see Meloni’s group and other far-right parties such as Viktor Orban’s Fidesz party stay with the more hard-line European Conservatives and Reformists group, or become part of a new hard-right group that could form the wake of the elections. We’ll be watching the horse trading as coalitions take shape.Nigeria Labor Congress (NLC) protest against the high cost of living and massive suffering following a hike in petrol and devaluation of the Naira in Lagos, Nigeria.
Hard Numbers: Blackouts in Nigeria, Turkey’s soaring inflation, Deadly flooding in Central Europe, A new (but familiar) face in UK election, Murdoch ties the knot (again)
4: Millions have taken to the streets in Nigeria as unions began their fourth (and indefinite) strike against President BolaTinubu’s wage policies. Nigeria unions have shut down six power grids, leading to a national blackout at 2am on Monday that halted much of the country’s aviation activity. Unions assert the strike will not end until the government agrees to raise the monthly minimum wage, over tenfold from 30,000 Naira ($20 USD) to 500,000 Naira ($336 USD).
75.5: Inflation has surpassed 75.5% in Turkey, jumping up 5.65% in the last month. Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek reassured Turkish citizens that “the worst is over,” as the government will begin pushing down inflation in June.
5: Heavy rains over the weekend led to widespread flooding in southern Germany and France, which killed five people, including a rescue worker. States of emergency have been announced throughout the region as highways, railways, and more have been submerged beneath several meters of water.
10: On Monday, Brexit “architect” Nigel Farage announced his plan to “make Britain great again” as the Reform UK party’s candidate in next month’s election. Although his party is only polling at around 10%, it is enough to further destabilize the ruling Tories, who are expected to be beaten soundly by Labour.
5: Is the fifth time the charm? Media tycoon Rupert Murdoch, 93, said “I do” last Saturday to Elena Zhukova, a 67-year-old retired molecular biologist. The couple looked very happy tying the knot in Los Angeles, CA, and showed us it’s never too late for love … particularly if you are a billionaire.
Property investor Heinrich XIII Prinz Reuss and his lawyers arrive for his trial for a suspected "Reichsbuerger" plot to overthrow Germany's democracy in a courtroom in Frankfurt, Germany, May 21, 2024.
German prince goes on trial over alleged coup plot
In news that might make you wonder what year it is, a trial for a German prince accused of spearheading a failed, far-right coup plot began on Tuesday.
Heinrich XIII Prince Reuss, 72, is being tried alongside eight others — including ex-lawmaker Birgit Malsack-Winkemann and several ex-army officers — for alleged involvement in the scheme.
The suspects are accused of plotting to violently overthrow the German government by storming the Reichstag parliament in Berlin and taking lawmakers hostage. The prince, who holds a fancy title but is simply a descendant of an aristocratic (not royal) family, was allegedly set to become head of state after the coup.
“Slightly crazy.” Prosecutors say the accused are conspiracy theorists who believe Germany is being run by a “deep state.” The alleged plotters are connected to the Reichsbürger, an extremist movement that aimed to undermine the modern German democratic system. “They’re not terrorists. They’re slightly crazy," defense lawyer Roman von Alvensleben said of the plotters.
Though it’s unlikely such a plot could succeed, the trial is taking place against a backdrop of growing concern over the surge in support for far-right and extremist ideologies ahead of the European Parliament elections in June. Earlier this year, scores of Germans took to the streets to protest against far-right extremism and the German government has made tackling the issue a bigger priority.Sailboat statue La Vela, on the shoreline at Stresa, Lake Maggiore, Italian Lakes, Piedmont, Italy
Top question for G7: How to Trump-proof Ukraine aid
Ahead of this week’s G7 Finance Ministers’ Meeting in Stresa, Italy, leaders might be feeling a little stress-a’d themselves. With the US election still anyone’s game, the world’s great democracies are increasingly concerned a victory for Donald Trump could severely impact, or even cut off, aid to Ukraine.
With that in mind, they’ll be discussing plans to pass along the interest earned on some $350 billion in frozen Russian assets to fund Kyiv’s war effort — basically making Russia pay to fight itself. If all goes well this week, US officials say some $50 billion could be ready to disburse as soon as this summer. As the assets earn more interest, Ukraine gets more money, and no fiddling with Congress is needed. The European Union is already using a similar set up to fund weapons purchases for Ukraine.
If the details can be hammered out before the G7 Leaders’ Summit next month and implemented before the US election, Trump winning wouldn’t change the payouts to Ukraine. But there’s work to be done: The US, UK, and Canada are reportedly more gung-ho, while Japan, Germany, France, and Italy are still concerned about the long-term precedents their actions could set, possibly driving money from places like China and the Persian Gulf away.
Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla, chairs of the AfD parliamentary group, comment in the German Bundestag on the ruling of the North Rhine-Westphalian Higher Administrative Court on the classification of the AfD as a suspected right-wing extremist organization.
Court ruling: “Germany can spy on the AfD”
Germany’s interior minister lauded the ruling by asserting the BfV had tools to protect the state from extremism and that “it is precisely these tools which will now be deployed.” Eurasia Group’s Jan Techau notes that, though we shouldn’t expect a sudden flurry of (surveillance) activity to emerge, “this ruling will not be lost on agencies in other federal states who now might feel emboldened to increase their activities.”
The verdict, from the Higher Administrative Court of North Rhine-Westphalia, one of Germany’s largest states, also applies to the party’s youth organization and a group inside the party known as the “Wing.” It cannot be appealed.
This major legal defeat is the latest in a series of setbacks for AfD, which has at times polled as one of Germany’s most popular political parties. Multiple scandals, including charges that one senior party official had spied for China while others had ties to white nationalists, have weighed heavily on the AfD’s approval numbers in recent weeks.
Participants in a rally to mark an attack on an SPD politician stand on Pohlandplatz. After the brutal attack on the SPD politician Ecke, a 17-year-old turned himself in to the police.
Latest attack on a German politician stokes concern ahead of elections
Last week, the top European Parliament candidate of the governing Social Democrat Party was beaten unconscious in the eastern city of Dresden while campaigning. A Green Party operative was assaulted there as well. Several teens with ties to far-right ideologies are suspected in both cases.
Statistics show rising violence against German politicians. In 2023, there were nearly 2,800 physical or verbal attacks, twice as many as in 2019, when a neo-Nazi assassination of conservative lawmaker Walter Lübcke stunned the country.
Last year’s violence included about 500 attacks on politicians from the far-right Alternative for Deutschland, or AFD, and more than 1,200 on members of the center-left Green Party.
Why now? The problem has deep roots, according to Jan Techau, a Berlin-based Europe expert at Eurasia Group. Establishment parties’ long-standing failure to address big issues like immigration, schooling, or the economy, he says, opened the way for more radical and violent forces on both the left and right. “What we see is an overall more charged, political atmosphere where this kind of violence becomes more legitimate.”Students gather in front of the Sorbonne University in support of Palestinians in Gaza, during the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas, in Paris, France, April 29, 2024.
Student protests go global
As police ramp up efforts to dismantle pro-Palestine encampments and demonstrations on US campuses, the student protests are going global.
Students at four universities in Australia have jumped onto what they call a “global wave” of pro-Palestinian activism, vowing to occupy areas of campus with encampments until their schools cut financial ties with Israel.
In the Middle East, student protests are raging from Kuwait to Egypt to Lebanon, where students occupied central locations on campuses on Monday and Tuesday, calling for divestment and an end to the war in Gaza.
Tensions are also rising between students and authorities inFrance, a country with a history of protest and the largest Jewish population in Europe. Students in Paris at the Sorbonne and Sciences Po began occupying parts of their institutions last week. On Saturday, Prime Minister Gabriel Attal said his government “would not tolerate the actions of a dangerously acting minority trying to impose its rules and an ideology coming from North America,” while the president of the Île-de-France regionsuspended funding for Sciences Po until “calm and security have been restored.”
Encampments have also popped up at universities in the UK, Canada, Turkey, Germany, Japan, India, and Argentina. For many protesters, fighting for a cease-fire has taken on a larger meaning. They continue to call for divesting from Israel, but they also tie the plight of Palestinians to global structures of oppression and link the war in Gaza toissues like police brutality, the mistreatment of Indigenous people, racism, and climate change.Members of Philippine Marines is pictured at BRP Sierra Madre, a dilapidated Philippine Navy ship that has been aground since 1999 and became a Philippine military detachment on the disputed Second Thomas Shoal, part of the Spratly Islands, in the South China Sea March 29, 2014. Picture taken March 29, 2014.
Hard Numbers: Manila’s many protests, US views of China, Kenya floods, Germany’s baby bust, US-Russia staring contest in Niger
20: Manila filed a diplomatic protest on Thursday — its 20th in 2024 — against Chinese harassment of its vessels in the South China Sea. That’s a rate of more than one a week, as Beijing seems little deterred by US and Japanese efforts to bolster the Philippines’ military capacities.
42: A new Pew survey shows 42% of Americans consider China an “enemy,” up from 25% two years ago. The mounting mistrust is largely driven by Republicans, among whom 59% describe China as an enemy, compared to only 28% of Democrats.
188: At least 188 people in Kenya have died in floods caused by weeks of torrential rains across East Africa. Another 90 people are believed to be missing, and over 165,000 have been displaced by the natural disaster.
693,000: The number of babies born in Germany is approaching record lows, with just 693,000 bouncing bundles welcomed in 2023. The trend looks likely to continue, as the number of marriages has also dropped — to its lowest level since 1950 — and government support for childcare and parental leave is weakening in an economy that has hardly grown in four years.
1000: An extremely awkward situation is unfolding in the Sahel region ... Russian troops have been deployed to an airbase hosting US troops in Niger at a time when relations between Washington and Moscow are, let's say, not exactly cordial. The US and Russian troops aren't mingling, but it's still an unorthodox scenario. In the wake of a military coup last year, Niger has moved to cut ties with Western countries like the US and France. The US has roughly 1,000 troops in Niger, deployed there as part of counterterrorism efforts, but the country's junta now says they need to leave. This all comes as Russia moves to increase its influence across Africa. It's unclear how many Russian troops are in Niger.