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The UAE’s hidden hand in Sudan’s humanitarian crisis
The war in Sudan between the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces and Sudanese Armed Forces has created one of the worst humanitarian crises in the world, and it is becoming increasingly apparent that the United Arab Emirates is playing a role in prolonging it.
Passports recovered from battlefields in Sudan suggest the United Arab Emirates is covertly putting boots on the ground to support the RSF — a charge the UAE denies. The allegations come after a UN report surfaced evidence the UAE has provided weapons to the RSF to the degree many analysts believe that “without the UAE’s alleged involvement, the conflict driving the world’s worst ongoing humanitarian crisis would already be over.”
Why would the UAE support the war? Sudan is key, militarily and economically, to the UAE’s strategy in Africa and the Middle East. Militarily, it has sourced fighters from both factions to join its conflict in Yemen. Economically, it is the primary importer of Sudan’s gold, and it plans to develop ports along its Red Sea coast. Meanwhile, Iran is supplying weapons to SAF, and Russia is supporting both sides in exchange for access to a strategic Red Sea port.
The United States plans to revive peace talks next month in Switzerland, where the UAE is invited to attend as an observer. US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield says Washington has “engaged” with the UAE on the issue. But Washington faces accusations of hypocrisy, as it calls for an end to weapons supplies in Sudan while continuing to provide billions’ worth to Israel during its offensive on Gaza.
Biden, Microsoft, and the United Arab Emirates
Microsoft has quickly become the most important investor in artificial intelligence technology, holding a $13 billion stake in ChatGPT-maker OpenAI. It’s a peculiar deal with a revenue-sharing agreement that’s raised eyebrows from global regulators. But its latest billion-dollar investment is perhaps even more of an eyebrow-raiser.
The US tech giant announced last week that it would invest $1.5 billion in G42, a leading artificial intelligence holding company based in Abu Dhabi. The deal was “largely orchestrated” by the Biden administration, according to the New York Times, an effort to beat back China and gain influence in the Persian Gulf.
“There’s no question the investment was made to try and box out Chinese investment” in artificial intelligence in the Middle East, said Alexis Serfaty, a director in Eurasia Group’s geo-technology practice.
Under the terms of the new deal, Microsoft will let G42 sell its generative AI services and, in exchange, G42 will use Microsoft’s Azure cloud services. It also agreed to stricter assurances with the US government to further cut off China and remove their products and technology from use.
It’s not every day that the White House plays corporate dealmaker, but the administration hasn’t been shy about making AI — and the chips needed to power it — an economic and national security priority. Serfaty said the closest parallel he could think of was the proposed Trump administration deal to hand a stake of TikTok to the US software and cloud giant Oracle. (TikTok’s Chinese parent company ByteDance never sold a stake of its social media app to Oracle, but it did strike a deal to host its US user data on Oracle servers). Plus, the US has recently given massive grants and favorable loans to global chip manufacturers—like TSMC and Samsung—for moving production to the US.
The Biden administration has imposed strict export controls on US-made chips going to China, especially powerful ones used to run artificial intelligence models. The goal: cut off China and hamper their ability to build powerful AI. Tech investments in the Persian Gulf have been something of a casualty of this Cold War over AI. G42 announced in December 2023 that it would cut ties with China in order to keep working with US industry.
“For better or worse, as a commercial company, we are in a position where we have to make a choice,” G42 CEO Peng Xiao told the Financial Times. “We cannot work with both sides. We can’t.”
Serfaty said that the deal signals that the US government is going to increasingly treat artificial intelligence like defense technology, and play a more hands-on role in its commercial affairs and investment.
“When it comes to emerging technology, you cannot be both in China’s camp and our camp,” Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo told the Times.
Oil money meets AI
Discussion of the global race for AI dominance and influence often centers on the United States and China, with Europe forcing itself into the discussion with groundbreaking regulation and the occasional influential startup. But in the Persian Gulf, wealthy states are just as serious about getting in on this powerful — and lucrative — technology.
The New York Times reported last week that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia plans to create a $40 billion fund solely to invest in artificial intelligence. If this comes to fruition, it will make the Saudi government the world’s largest investor in AI. Next door, the United Arab Emirates has similar ambitions. Through Abu Dhabi’s Advanced Technology Research Council, the government poured millions into a powerful large language model called Falcon, only to release it open-source in September. Meanwhile, OpenAI chief Sam Altman has reportedly sought upwards of $7 trillion from funders including the UAE for a global chip startup.
Alexa Parks, an associate at the Eurasia Group, says both countries have been “relatively ahead of the curve” on AI with the UAE appointing the world’s first AI minister in 2017 and Saudi Arabia declaring in 2020 that it sought a domestic AI market worth $135 billion by 2030.
For Saudi Arabia, in particular, technology is “one of the few non-oil sectors that has successfully and consistently attracted significant foreign direct investment pledges,” Parks says. Both countries have pledged massive amounts to building data centers necessary for running powerful AI, plans that may put them in competition for regional dominance. The two countries seek global influence in the increasingly important AI market, but also financial returns on their investments.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE are in some ways caught in the middle of a broader economic and technological war between the US and China over AI. The US has enacted strict export controls on AI and semiconductor technology with the aim of kneecapping China, especially their military ambitions with AI. G42, one of the UAE’s largest tech firms recently cut ties with China, which should position them to better engage with US-based AI companies in the future. “We haven't seen any Saudi firms be forced to make this choice yet, but it seems likely that it will happen eventually,” Parks says. “Until then, Riyadh will be content to pursue Chinese and Western tech ties and investments to build up its local tech sector as much as possible.”
On Friday, we saw some signals that some US-based AI companies won’t be so quick to take on the potential regulatory risks related to taking Gulf money: Anthropic is reportedly lining up new investors, but already ruled out Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund, citing national security risks.
These countries’ deep-pockets and investments will make them unavoidable players in the artificial intelligence race, but in order to succeed they may need to choose sides in a broader conflict—though some major players will just flatly reject their money.
FILE PHOTO: Somali supporters of Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan hold Turkey's flag during celebrations after the second round of the presidential election, in Mogadishu, Somalia May 29, 2023.
Somalia signs defense pact with Turkey amid tensions with Ethiopia
Turkey confirmed Thursday that it has signed a defense agreement with Somalia. The deal commits Ankara to defending Somali waters and to helping Mogadishu build up its navy against “foreign interference” – a veiled reference to rising tensions with Ethiopia.
Last month, Addis Ababa signed a memorandum of understanding with the breakaway state of Somaliland allowing Ethiopia to utilize the port of Berbera in exchange for recognizing Somaliland’s independence. Ethiopia is the world’s most populous landlocked country, so securing sea access is vital, but Mogadishu says the deal is an unacceptable violation of its sovereignty.
Could it come to war? The United States is certainly concerned, with Washington’s top Africa diplomat, Assistant Secretary of State Molly Phee, shuttling between meetings with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and telling reporters “the region can ill-afford more conflict.” The European and African Unions, the Arab League, and Egypt are all echoing US and Turkish calls for Somali sovereignty to be respected.
But we’ve got our eye on the United Arab Emirates, which previously facilitated ties between Ethiopia and Somaliland and could lean on its growing military influence in the Horn of Africa to sway the course of events – particularly with African Union troops set to pull out of Somalia this year.
AI for good, AI for bad: Bringing balance to the force
AI comes with a lot of stigma. Popular storylines in books and movies have trained us to see artificial intelligence as a bad actor that can take control over humanity and destroy us, says Omar Sultan al Olama, the UAE's Minister of State for Artificial Intelligence.
Minister al Olama, speaking in a GZERO Global Stage discussion from the 2024 World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, highlights that in the UAE, AI development isn't just focused on productivity and economic gains, but on its potential to improve quality of life. One way to flip the script on AI as simply a scary tech straight out of a sci-fi thriller? Create more content that sheds light on AI's upsides, says al Olama.
The conversation was part of the Global Stage series, produced by GZERO in partnership with Microsoft. These discussions convene heads of state, business leaders, technology experts from around the world for critical debate about the geopolitical and technology trends shaping our world.
Watch the full conversation here: How is the world tackling AI, Davos' hottest topic?
- Episode 7: How AI is changing our economy ›
- Azeem Azhar explores the future of AI ›
- Staving off "the dark side" of artificial intelligence: UN Deputy Secretary-General Amina Mohammed ›
- How AI can be used in public policy: Anne Witkowsky ›
- Will consumers ever trust AI? Regulations and guardrails are key ›
- Podcast: Talking AI: Sociologist Zeynep Tufekci explains what's missing in the conversation ›
U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin speaks at a joint press conference with South Korean Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup in Seoul, South Korea, 31 January 2023.
What We’re Watching: Pentagon leak fallout, Manhattan DA sues House Republicans, new source of tension in Ethiopia
The fog of leaks
Fallout continues from the leak of secret US documents related to the war in Ukraine. The leaked info suggests that Egypt, one of the world’s largest recipients of US military aid, planned to secretly supply Russia with tens of thousands of rockets for use in Ukraine and that the United Arab Emirates, also a key US ally, would help Russia work against US and UK intelligence. Egypt and the UAE say these reports are false.
Another document suggests that US eavesdropping on its ally South Korea indicated that aides to South Korea’s president had discussed sending artillery shells to the US or Poland for use by Ukraine, a move that would violate South Korea’s policy of refusing to export weapons to any country at war.
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has claimed that “quite a few of the documents in question were fabricated,” but he isn’t saying what’s true and what isn’t. The world may never know who leaked these documents, why they were leaked, and which parts of them, if any, were entirely fabricated or partially altered. But the headaches for those who must now repair damaged international relationships are real, and the domestic political fallout for leaders of some of these countries, particularly South Korea, will continue.
Manhattan DA sues House Republicans
Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg announced Tuesday that he’s suing House Republicans for allegedly interfering in the criminal case against former President Donald Trump.
Bragg’s lawsuit is focused on the actions of Congressman Jim Jordan of Ohio, who chairs the House Judiciary Committee. In the 50-page suit, Bragg accuses Jordan of “a transparent campaign to intimidate and attack” the district attorney as his office pursues criminal charges against the former president for allegedly breaking campaign finance laws by making a hush-money payment to a porn star.
House Republicans have demanded that Bragg’s office hand over documents and testimony related to the Trump case, insisting that the committee has oversight rights. Crucially, Jordan had issued a subpoena for Mark F. Pomerantz to deliver a closed-door deposition. Pomerantz is a former assistant DA who left his job last year after Bragg reportedly opposed a wider tax-and-insurance fraud prosecution of Trump, which Pomerantz favored.
Bragg has sued to block the subpoena saying it amounts to “an unconstitutional attempt to undermine an ongoing New York felony criminal prosecution and investigation.”
Whatever happens, as this case makes its way through the courts, Jordan will be delayed in getting his hands on the documents and testimony he is seeking.
Fresh unrest hits Ethiopia
For almost a week now, protests have raged in the Ethiopian region of Amhara over a federal government plan to absorb local security forces into the national army.
The tensions are only the latest example of how fragmented Africa’s second most populous country has become. It was just months ago that the government finally reached a peace deal with separatist militants from the region of Tigray, ending a gruesome civil war that had displaced millions.
In that conflict, as it happens, Amhara’s local forces fought alongside the government, pursuing long-standing grievances and territorial claims against their Tigrayan neighbors.
Now Ethiopian PM Abiy Ahmed wants to eliminate all regional forces of that kind. For Abiy, it’s necessary to strengthen national unity. He won’t back down, he says, even if a “price needs to be paid.” But the Amharas worry that without those forces, they’ll be vulnerable to fresh attacks from other ethnic groups or the federal government itself.
That puts Abiy in a familiar bind. Five years after popular protests swept him to power with a mandate to liberalize Ethiopia’s political system, he is still struggling to master the country’s ferocious ethnic and regional rivalries.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping attend a reception at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia March 21, 2023.
What We're Watching: Russia strikes Ukraine amid dueling wartime trips, Boris Johnson’s ‘Partygate’ showdown, Israeli settlements U-turn
After Xi-Putin summit, Moscow strikes Ukraine
Over the past few days, Vladimir Putin pulled out all the stops to entertain his "good old friend" Xi Jinping in Moscow, during what was perhaps the most geopolitically significant bilateral summit of the year so far.
Seven-course dinner — check. Insanely long red carpet at the Kremlin — check. Putin doing Xi the rare courtesy of showing up on time — check.
But beyond the pomp, ничего особенного (nothing much). The summit ended with a joint press conference featuring boilerplate statements about Sino-Russian cooperation. There was no mention of China potentially supplying arms to Russia, and no call for a ceasefire in Ukraine, although Putin did say that Xi's peace plan could be a first step toward a negotiated settlement “once the West and Kyiv are ready for it."
But then right after Xi's visit on Wednesday, the Kremlin launched fresh drone and missile strikes on Ukrainian cities, killing at least four people in a residential area outside Kyiv.
While President Volodymyr Zelensky has so far tried to remain open to Beijing's intervention, he tweeted that "every time someone tries to hear the word 'peace' in Moscow, another order is given there for such criminal strikes."
Is Putin feeling emboldened? From Putin's perspective, a visit from Xi, who’s been something of a homebody himself since the pandemic, lets Putin show that although the US and its allies have blackballed him, he is still far from isolated globally – and that the Russia-China friendship “without limits” is an axis of power Washington has to reckon with.
We're watching to see how — or if — Beijing responds to the latest onslaught that comes on the heels of Xi's whirlwind diplomacy.
Kishida in Kyiv
All things considered, it’s not surprising that Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida went to Ukraine to visit President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday. Kishida was the only leader of a G7 nation that hadn’t yet made the trip, and Japan is chairing the group’s summit in Hiroshima in May. But it is striking when he chose to visit and where he traveled while there.
Arriving in Kyiv on a day when Chinese President Xi Jinping was visiting Vladimir Putin in Moscow was striking. Kishida also visited a mass grave in the town of Bucha to pay respects to the Ukrainian victims of alleged Russian war crimes, offering a none-too-subtle comment on Putin’s recent indictment by the International Criminal Court.
Japan’s foreign ministry said the trip underscored Kishida’s "absolute rejection of Russia's one-sided change to the status quo by invasion and force.” It also follows last week's dramatic breakthrough in Japan’s relations with South Korea, another move signaling that, while Japan must continue to carefully balance its relations with China, Kishida will be more assertive and outspoken on foreign policy than most of Japan’s recent prime ministers.
Could this be the end for Boris Johnson?
Boris is back … in the news! On Wednesday, the former British PM will appear before the parliamentary Privileges Committee to determine whether he deliberately lied to parliament over the Partygate saga. Recap: That’s when Downing Street hosted a string of parties (including some attended by the PM) while millions of Britons were subject to strict COVID lockdowns.
What happens now? It’s up to the committee, made up of MPs from three political parties, to decide how to proceed. It could decide that Johnson didn’t mislead parliament, which is unlikely given the trail of evidence. But even if it judges that he did, punishments could vary. Best case scenario? He’s given a wrist slap. Worst case? He’s suspended from parliament.
But wait, there's more! If the suspension is for more than 10 days, it'll trigger a recall vote in Johnson's district, which only requires 10% of ballots to pass. And that in turn will be followed by a by-election for the same seat ... in which Boris can still run!
What does this mean for the Tories? The rank-and-file is divided between diehard Boris fans, who want Johnson to make another bid for the top job, and those who think he’s a political liability. Either way, it’s bad timing for PM Rishi Sunak, who is trying very hard to convince Britons that the wildly unpopular Conservative Party is more than an agent of chaos.
Israeli government’s settlement policy shift
The far-right Israeli government, a magnet for controversy in recent weeks, has just reversed a 2005 law that ordered the dismantling of four settlements in the northern West Bank.
The Israeli army will no longer have the power to forcibly remove settlers from these areas. (In 2005, former PM Ariel Sharon unilaterally disengaged from settlements in the Gaza Strip and the northern West Bank in a move that right-wing ideologues deemed an injustice.)
Tuesday’s move – which the US said it was “extremely troubled” by before the State Department summoned Israel's ambassador to express its dismay – will legalize construction at these outposts, one of which had previously been deemed private Palestinian land by Israel’s High Court. Many right-wing and religious Jews believe that the West Bank is part of greater Israel, according to the Old Testament, and that Jews have a responsibility to settle on the land. Conversely, land seized by Israel during the Six-Day War in 1967 is deemed occupied Palestinian territory, according to international law.
Critics say the recent government decision will lead to more violence in the West Bank and is a step towards illegal annexation.
This comes after Israel’s Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich created a firestorm this week by saying “there is no such thing as a Palestinian people” while standing in front of a map of so-called greater Israel that included … Jordan. (The Hashemite Kingdom, with which Israel has enjoyed a cold peace since 1994, was not pleased.)
Amid fears that the government’s actions are endangering the Abraham Accords, a senior delegation from the United Arab Emirates is set to meet in Jerusalem with President Isaac Herzog to voice its concerns over recent events.
People tour a Sana'a graveyard for Houthi fighters killed in fighting during a 2016 ceasefire in Yemen's civil war.
Is Yemen on the road to peace?
A powerful country invades its neighbor. The conflict quickly becomes a brutal proxy war. A horrific humanitarian crisis ensues. While much of the world’s attention has been on Ukraine for the past few months, the civil war in Yemen is now in its eighth year. But in recent weeks signs of hope for peace have emerged, if faintly. What is the latest in a grinding conflict that has provoked what the UN calls "the world's worst humanitarian crisis"?
First, the background. In 2014, the Houthis, an ultra-conservative Muslim religious group from northern Yemen seized upon anti-government protests to storm the capital, Sana’a. The Houthis, who have long chafed against central government rule, quickly took control of broader swaths of the country. The government accused the Houthis of being an Iranian proxy and invited Saudi Arabia and the UAE, with US logistical support, to lead a military coalition against the rebels. Ever since, the two sides have been locked in a brutal war marked by grave human rights abuses on both sides. The coalition's blockade of Yemeni ports has contributed to the humanitarian crisis, while Houthi rocket attacks on Saudi Arabia have expanded the conflict beyond Yemen's borders.
The good news. The fighting has mostly stopped – for now. Both sides are largely respecting a UN-brokered ceasefire from April. Under the agreement, the Saudi-led coalition relaxed its blockade and permitted a limited number of flights to resume between Sana’a and other Arab capitals. But so far the two sides have not been able to agree on a third point, a plan for the Houthis to lift their siege of Taiz, a strategic, government-held city in the southwest.
Still, violence is at its lowest level since the war began. Civilian casualties fell by 50% in the first month of the truce, says Jasmin Lavoie of the Norwegian Refugee Council in Sana’a. “When you go home at night, you aren’t afraid of hearing airstrikes,” he says, “and if you live near a front line, you are safer today than before the truce.”
The bad news. Trust between — and even within — the various parties to the conflict is very low. The official Yemeni government is now run by a new, Saudi-backed Presidential Leadership Council that features a motley crew of politicians and warlords who don’t fully get along with each other.
The Houthis, for their part, are an insular group. They have given few clues about what kind of post-war government they’d like to see in Yemen, and it’s unclear how interested they are in truly sharing power. "The Houthis don't really do inclusiveness," says Veena Ali-Khan, a Yemen specialist with International Crisis Group.
A breakthrough on the specific issue of Taiz would go a long way to boosting trust, says Ali-Khan. But without that, she warns, both sides may quickly decide that “going back to fighting is the best possible outcome.”
On that score, one area of particular concern is the battle for the oil-rich province of Ma’arib — currently under tenuous government control. It is one of the few places where sporadic violence has continued even under the current truce.
A crude offshore time bomb. As if these challenges facing Yemen weren’t enough, an abandoned, badly rusting oil tanker off the Northwest coast threatens to break apart, spilling more than a million barrels of crude into the Red Sea. The warring parties have recently agreed to allow access to the ship for the first time, but the UN has been reduced to crowdfunding to raise the $80 million it needs to offload the oil before disaster strikes. A spill, which would be four times the size of the 1989 Exxon Valdez disaster, would not only wreak havoc on Red Sea marine life, it would send the Yemeni fishing economy belly up for a generation.
Even with the truce, the humanitarian situation is dire. Some 17 million Yemenis struggle to find food daily, says Lavoie. And that number could jump to 19 million by the end of the year as the war in Ukraine interrupts shipments of wheat that Yemen depends on. What’s more, international attention to Ukraine has drawn humanitarian resources away from Yemen and other non-European countries, he says, making it harder to finance aid missions there.
What's more, the destruction already wrought by both sides — on infrastructure, hospitals, homes, and schools — is so immense that even if there were a lasting peace tomorrow, says Lavoie, “it wouldn’t mean the end of suffering for the Yemeni people.”
Still, even with all these challenges, there is room for cautious optimism. "The parties of the conflict are meeting face to face, and there is an extension of the truce," says Lavoie. "That could lead to lasting peace, and that means hope for many -- now people can hope."
The truce is due to be renewed on August 2nd.