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Sudan’s lost sea access worsens humanitarian disaster
Since fighting between rival military factions in Sudan erupted last April, nearly 8 million people have been displaced, and 24 million require urgent food aid. But the crisis now may begin to beggar description as the country loses access to its Red Sea coast and migrants stream across its borders.
Refugee influx. Over 400,000 Sudanese refugees have fled to Libya, where they face long waits for registration, leading many to turn to smugglers to attempt dangerous Europe-bound sea crossings. Their first destination is Italy, with nearly 6,000 Sudanese refugees arriving there in 2023.
Numbers are expected to soar this year, prompting Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni to urge support for investments designed to disincentivize migration. Meloni unveiled a plan last month to enhance energy cooperation with African states and assist them in areas including health and education, at a cost of 3 million euros annually for four years.
Impact of Houthi attacks. Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have cut off Sudanese ports and are disrupting aid shipments, forcing humanitarian agencies to reroute deliveries at significantly higher costs. Some shipments are delayed, others are stuck altogether, and still more face exorbitant air-freight costs. Aid workers describe the situation as "catastrophic" and fear mass starvation is imminent.Ukraine extends its reach ... and to some strange places
With the frontlines stuck, and its conventional munitions dwindling, Kyiv is looking to expand its reach against Russian interests – both near and far.
Ukraine’s army is now working with private companies to boost the production of a new class of kamikaze drones that can fly up to 1,000km (621 miles) – far enough to hit Moscow and St. Petersburg.
That’s in addition to President Volodymyr Zelensky’s pledge to build millions more “First Person View” drones – consumer models adapted with explosives – which have helped Ukraine to even the playing field against a larger enemy.
The drones expand Kyiv’s menu of options, says Alex Brideau of Eurasia Group. “They could attempt to hit Russian export facilities for oil and grain in an attempt to choke off revenues that support the war effort.” In recent days, Ukraine has done just that.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is also taking its fight against Russia to ... Sudan? Ukrainian forces are reportedly helping the Sudanese army in its civil war against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, which are allegedly backed by Wagner Group.
That certainly sends a strong “we’ll fight you everywhere” message – but it’s not clear how much it helps with Kyiv’s core issues: entrenched front lines and uncertainty about US aid.
Hard Numbers: Azerbaijan “votes” for Aliyev, UN seeks Sudan aid, Marines missing in California, Orcas swim to safety off Japan, Marianne Williamson calls it quits
94: Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev was “reelected” almost unanimously on Wednesday, garnering 94% of the vote to secure his fifth term in office, according to a state media exit poll. Aliyev likely called the snap election to leverage any good feelings he generated with his quick war last September to take control of the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh. While Azerbaijan’s elections are neither free nor fair, it’s a step up from 2013, when the country released election results before the polls opened.
4,100,000,000: Ten months of fighting between the rebel Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Army have left 8 million people in Sudan displaced and 12,000 dead, with some 18 million facing acute hunger. In response, the UN refugee agency, UNHCR, is seeking $4.1 billion in international support for victims of Sudan’s civil war.
5: A US Marine Corps helicopter carrying five troops disappeared early Wednesday, prompting search and rescue efforts. The crew was flying from Creech Air Force Base in Clark County, Nev., to Marine Corps Air Station Miramar in San Diego, Calif. The aircraft disappeared near Pine Valley, a mountainous area east of San Diego. Authorities say the helicopter has been found, but the search for the crew members continues.
12: A dozen orcas that were trapped in ice off Japan’s northern island have made it to safety. Fishermen spotted the pod earlier this week, prompting public concern for their welfare. A group of environmentalists even asked Japan’s government to send an ice breaker to free the killer whales, but they seem to have managed an escape on their own. Fun fact: “Killer whale” is a misnomer. Orcas are in the dolphin family, and fishermen originally referred to them as “whale killers” due to their hunting of large marine animals.
2: And then there were two... Marianne Williamson on Wednesday dropped out of the race for the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination. This means Rep. Dean Phillips of Minnesota is President Joe Biden's only remaining challenger, although he has little to no chance of success.
Hard Numbers: Crisis deepens in Sudan, Infernos rage in Chile, Moon is shrinking, Japan welcomes digital nomads, NJ scores World Cup final, Swift's lucky numbers
8,000,000: The United Nations reported this week that 10 months of violent conflict in Sudan have displaced nearly 8 million people and caused at least 12,000 deaths. The war between the rebel Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Army has left nearly half of Sudan's population in need of aid and the International Criminal Court investigating allegations of war crimes.
112: At least 112 people are dead and 190 missing in wildfires consuming the central regions of Chile, including the historic port city of Valparaiso. Arson is suspected to have ignited the blaze that burned over 106,255 acres during the intense heatwave sweeping South America.
150: Over millions of years, the moon has shrunk by 150 feet in diameter – and now, scientists are growing concerned. The shrinking, caused by the cooling of the moon's molten core, has led to the formation of thrust faults and “moonquakes” that could pose risks to future lunar missions, notably at its south pole.
10,000,000: If you’ve got a yen to work in Japan, this is your lucky day. To boost tourism, the country will be offering a “specified activities” visa to digital nomads from 49 countries and territories, including the self-employed. This will allow them to work remotely and stay for up to six months as long as they earn an annual income of 10 million yen, or $68,300. The program is expected to start in late March.
39: FIFA World Cup released the schedule and locations of games for the 2026 tournament, which will be played in Mexico, the US, and Canada. At 39 days, it will be the longest World Cup in history, culminating with a final to be played in “New York/New Jersey” (which means MetLife stadium in … New Jersey). Among other curiosities, close observers noted that there’s a chance of a knockout round match between the US and England on July 4 in Philadelphia. Get your 1776 on …
4: Last night, Taylor Swift became the first artist to win four Grammy awards for album of the year with "Midnights." The pop star, who now has 14 statues on the mantle, thanked her fans by announcing that her new album, “The Tortured Poets Department,” will drop on April 19. And for those wondering where she will be on Feb. 11, the Embassy of Japan in Washington, DC, tweeted on Friday that the singing superstar can “comfortably” get from her concert in Tokyo on Saturday to Las Vegas on Sunday in time to see her “guy on the Chiefs” play in the Super Bowl.
Iran tiptoes into the war in Sudan
Is Iran looking to tip the scales in Sudan’s bloody civil war in the government’s favor? Tehran sent shipments of the Mohajer-6, an unmanned aerial vehicle armed with precision-guided missiles, to the Sudanese army, senior Western officials told Bloomberg.
This comes just months after Iran and Sudan agreed to resume diplomatic relations, and it is a sign that Tehran wants to expand its reach in the strategically vital region.
Everyone wants a piece of the Red Sea pie. Sudan’s 400-mile Red Sea coastline has made the country a ripe target for some actors seeking greater influence in the area – including Russia and China. The Red Sea, which is one of the busiest shipping lanes in the world, is already at the heart of an escalating feud between the US and the Iran-backed Houthi rebels.
Is the war in Sudan becoming a proxy conflict? United Arab Emirates – a regional rival of Iran’s – is allegedly supporting the Rapid Support Forces, the paramilitary group fighting Sudan’s armed forces. The Gulf state denies taking a side in the war, but the UN has reportedly found “credible” evidence that the UAE has sent weapons to the RSF.
The RSF controls parts of Khartoum, the capital, and recently seized the country’s second-largest city, Wad Madani. The war, which began last April, has killed over 13,000 and displaced approximately 7.6 million – leading to a major humanitarian crisis. With more outside actors seemingly fueling the fighting by providing weapons to both sides, growing global calls for an immediate cease-fire in Sudan may go unheard.
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock departed for a tour of East Africa on Wednesday. She warned against allowing the conflict in Sudan to become a “forgotten crisis.” The top German diplomat said “pressure” needed to be increased on both sides to help foster a negotiated solution to the war.
Sudan descends into disaster
A United Nations report delivered to the UN Security Council Friday has found that between 10,000 and 15,000 people were killed last year in the city of El Geneina in the West Darfur region of Sudan. This exceeds the UN’s original estimate of 12,000 deaths following six months of ethnic violence committed by the country’s Paramilitary Rapid Support Forces and allied Arab militia against its Masalit minority.
In the report, UN monitors describe as “credible” accusations that the United Arab Emirates furnished military support to the RSF via northern Chad.
In response, a UAE spokesperson denied that the country was “supplying arms and ammunition to any of the warring parties” and claimed it does not favor either side.
A humanitarian crisis
One thing no one can deny is that Sudan is in crisis on multiple levels. Doctors Without Borders says half of Khartoum’s 6 million people have no access to healthcare. The city itself has descended into a lawless anarchy replete with sexual violence. And the displacement of farmers has left five million people at risk of starvation.
With the world’s focus divided between wars in Ukraine and Gaza, as well as geopolitical tensions between the US, China, Russia, and Iran, this fresh catastrophe in Sudan once again risks being ignored until it is too late.
RSF calls for a cease-fire in Sudan: peace effort or publicity stunt?
The Rapid Support Forces, the dominant paramilitary group fighting in Sudan, has announced it is open to an immediate, unconditional cease-fire. Sudan’s civil war has displaced nearly 6 million people and killed more than 10,000 since it began in April 2023.
The sides: On one side we've got Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the country's army chief and de facto leader since leading the 2021 coup. On the other is his former ally and junta deputy Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, aka Hemedti, head of the RSF, a militia that grew out of the Janjaweed death squads that committed genocide in Darfur.
The declaration could be a turning point, but there is also reason to fear it is just a continuation of Hemedti’s publicity tour. When war broke out, he went into hiding for months, spurring speculations he was wounded or dead until he reappeared in a photo-op with Uganda’s president last week. Hemedti then went on to meet leaders of Ethiopia, Ghana, and Djibouti, showcasing his regional backing while trying to position himself as the next leader of Sudan.
In recent months, the RSF has made key territorial gains – including Darfur and the country’s breadbasket, Gezira. Now in control of most of the East and West of the country, it's no wonder that Hemedti thinks that the time is right to come to the negotiating table. The RSF just signed a peace agreement with the pro-civilian group the Taqadum Civilian Coalition and has invited the Sudanese Army to join.
It is unclear, however, whether the Sudanese Army will accept the invitation. Artillery fire between the RSF and the Sudanese Army has been intensifying in recent days, and past cease-fire agreements and negotiations have failed to stop the fighting or protect civilians. If the latest effort is similarly unsuccessful, famine is looming and will likely add to the mounting civilian casualties.
UN’s footprint in Africa shrinks again, courtesy of Sudan
With Russia abstaining, the UN Security Council voted unanimously on Friday to wind down its 245-person Integrated Transition Assistance Mission in Sudan, aka UNITAMS, starting Dec. 4. Over the next three months, tasks will transfer to other UN agencies “where feasible,” and financial arrangements will be made with the UN Country Team remaining on the ground.
UNITAMS was established in 2020 to support Sudan’s transition to democratic rule, but operations stalled after a military coup in October 2021. When fighting erupted in April 2023 between the Sudanese army and the Arab-led paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, Sudanese leader Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan blamed UNITAMS chief Volker Perthes for the violence and demanded he be fired. Perthes stepped down in September, but last month, al-Burhan requested the end of the mission. The UNSC had to comply as it cannot operate without the host country’s consent.
UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres defended UNITAMS, blaming the violence on Burhan and RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan Daglo. Washington, meanwhile, has signaled that it’s “gravely concerned” that the withdrawal will “embolden the perpetrators of atrocities with dire consequences for civilians.” In the last six months, 9,000 people, mostly ethnic Masalit, have been killed in violent conflicts between the Sudanese army and the RSF, and experts warn of an impending genocide.
The withdrawal is the latest blow to the UN’s influence in Africa, coming on the heels of Mali’s demand in June for the UN to terminate its peacekeeping mission there; it ends on Dec. 31.