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Will Marine Le Pen's conviction really keep her out of French politics?
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: A Quick Take to kick off your week. Turning to France where Marine Le Pen, who has long been the leader of the National Front, now renamed National Rally Party, and principal contender her party to win French elections in 2027, which would be an absolute turning point in French elections, as meaningful for France as Trump's second win in 2024 in the United States, has been found guilty in a criminal court in France of embezzlement charges up to $500,000 directly and millions of dollars in terms of mishandling the way European funds were being used for staffers, including her sister and her best friend and a bodyguard. Not a political case at all, actually just a criminal court. Nobody arguing that the judge is particularly politicized here. And while two of the years of the jail term's suspended, the first two years, she has to wear an ankle bracelet. So we'll probably get a video of that real soon. I'm sure it'll be fashionable, since it's France.
But the point is, this would prevent her from running in 2027. And that would mean that Bardella, who is number two essentially in that party, all of 29 years old, nowhere near as popular as Le Pen and would completely tank the ability of the National Rally to win, would become the candidate. It is too early to say that this ban is going to stand up. She has an appeals process. She can bring it to the French equivalent of the Supreme Court, a constitutional counsel, to answer what'll be called a priority question of whether her immediate five-year ban from politics before her appeals against the conviction can stand as valid. And there's a very good argument that has been made in the plaintiff's favor in recent cases that this would not stand. And that while her appeals are going on, she would still be eligible to run, and indeed, she'd be able to go through this appeals process through 2027.
So what now looks like and is being reported in the English language press as she's being thrown out of politics probably isn't going to stand. So in other words, Le Pen out for now. Le Pen probably back soon. And France, in 2027, a really significant, maybe watershed moment from where European politics are going to go. Because if you look at politics right now, you have Friedrich Merz, probably shortly after Easter going to be putting together his grand coalition government, very strongly pro-Europe, very centrist government. You have Meloni, who certainly has a good relationship with Trump, but nonetheless, very strongly pro-EU and very much wanting to act as a bridge to support the EU in using her relations in the United States to be effective in that regard. Macron same, and even Keir Starmer in the UK, post-Brexit, yes, but wanting to be seen as a European leader. Hence taking the lead with Macron in all of these Ukraine summits. That's for now.
But as we look forward to what politics in 2027, '28, '29 look like in Europe, we could easily see that in Germany, suddenly Alternative für Deutschland could do better. Especially if the economy is not doing well. And could force the Germans to be in a position where they would have to enter a coalition with them. In France, very much the National Rally Party and Le Pen still in contention. In the UK, the Reform Party in contention too. So the end of Trump's term for Europe and the transatlantic relationships looks radically different than the beginning of Trump's term. And today's news headlines on France are a blip, not a structural shift. Watch this space as Le Pen is still very relevant indeed. That's it from me, and I'll talk to you all real soon.
France's President Emmanuel Macron speaks during a press conference following a summit for the "coalition of the willing" at the Elysee Palace in Paris on March 27, 2025.
Europe divided over Macron’s “reassurance force” for Ukraine
The reassurance force has its share of supporters, notably British PM Keir Starmer. But Italian PM Giorgia Meloni offered “no national participation,” while Czech PM Petr Fiala dubbed the discussion “premature” until ceasefire conditions become known.
Moscow’s response?A hard nyet.Maria Zakharova, spokesperson for the Russian foreign ministry, claimed that the UK and France are “hatching plans for military intervention in Ukraine” under the guise of peacekeeping. She added, “Russia categorically opposes such a scenario, which threatens a direct conflict between Russia and NATO.”
So far, there has been no formal response from the Trump administration, although special envoy Steve Witkoff referred to the plan as “simplistic” and “posturing” in an interview with Tucker Carlson on March 21. We’re watching to see if there will be further reaction – and whether this will impact ceasefire talks.
French President Emmanuel Macron at the Elysee Palace in Paris, France, on March 17, 2025.
France’s Macron calls on Europe to stop buying American military equipment
Amid Europe’s growing rift with President Donald Trump, a French lawmaker this weekend called on the United States to “give us back the Statue of Liberty” now that Americans “have chosen to side with the tyrants.”
But French President Emmanuel Macron came out with a more concrete plan to split with Washington. In interviews published Saturday in several French newspapers, Macron said he intends “to go and convince European states that have become accustomed to buying American” to purchase European missile systems and fighter jets instead.
"Those who buy Patriot should be offered the new-generation Franco-Italian SAMP/T. Those who buy the F-35, should be offered the Rafale,” he told Le Parisien. “That's the way to increase the rate of production.”
While Belgium and the Netherlands still plan to buy new F-35s, Portugal is wavering on replacing its F-16s with the next generation of Lockheed Martin fighter jets, suggesting last week that it may look for European alternatives.
Not just Europe. Canada’s new Prime Minister Mark Carney last week ordered his government to review its deal to buy as many as 88 American F-35s. So far, Ottawa has budgeted to buy only the first 16 planes.
Potential winners? Macron said he asked European defense contractors to find ways to reduce costs. But Turkey could prove a major winner of any European decoupling from the US. This month, the leading Turkish drone manufacturer formed a joint venture with one of Italy’s biggest weapons manufacturers. Leaders in European capitals and Ankara are now calling for closer defense ties.
Is the US-Europe alliance permanently damaged?
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Stockholm, Sweden.
Is the transatlantic relationship permanently damaged by what we have seen during the last 10 days or so?
Well, there is no question that the last 10 days or so have been the worst by far for the transatlantic relationship in, well, modern recorded history. You can go through all of the details if you want. It started with the shameful vote in the UN General Assembly on the same day that was three years after the war of aggression that Russia started, where the United States turned around, lined up with Russia, and with primarily a bunch of countries that you would not normally like to be seen in the company of, in order to try to defeat the Europeans, and defeat the Ukrainians, and defeat the Japanese, and defeat the Australians, defeat all of the friends who have criticized the Russians.
It was truly shameful. It was defeated, needless to say, but it left deep marks there. And then it was downhill from there, with that particular week ending with the ambush in the Oval Office, with all of the details associated with that, with sort of a childish dispute about dress codes, and respect for whatever, and total disregard for the important issues that are at stake at the moment. And to that was added, the vice president seriously insulting the allies, primarily the British and the French, and then cutting of aid to Ukraine, including intelligence cooperation, which is unheard of, unheard of when it comes to these particular issues.
So, is damage permanent? Well, one would hope that... well, hope springs eternal, that there would be a way back. But this will be remembered for a long time to come. And the reaction in Europe, well, you have to keep a straight face if you are a political leader. And they do, they hope for the best, but they're increasingly preparing for the worst. What we might be heading into is Mr. Trump, President Trump lining up with President Putin in a deal that is essentially on Russia's term over Ukraine, then trying to force Ukraine into that particular deal, a repetition of Munich 1938.
Will that work? I think it's unlikely to work because the Ukrainians are determined to stand up for their country. And they have the support of the Europeans. Czechoslovakia in 1938 didn't have much support. So, whether it will work or not is debatable, but that is the direction in which things are heading at the moment. Can this be stopped or can the trajectory of things be changed? Let's hope. There's a flurry of meetings in Europe. There will be a lot of contacts across the Atlantic. There is a strong support for Ukraine in Europe, but then deep apprehensions of where we are heading. Further four years with President Trump. After that, (possibly) four to eight years with JD Vance. Well, well, there's a lot of thinking that needs to be done on this side of the Atlantic.
France puts the AI in laissez-faire
France positioned itself as a global leader in artificial intelligence at last week’s AI Action Summit in Paris, but the gathering revealed a country more focused on attracting investment than leading Europe's approach to artificial intelligence regulation.
The summit, which drew global leaders and technology executives from around the world on Feb. 10-11, showcased France’s shift away from Europe’s traditionally strict tech regulation. French President Emmanuel Macron announced $113 billion in domestic AI investment while calling for simpler rules and faster development — a stark contrast to the EU’s landmark AI Act, which is gradually taking effect across the continent.
Esprit d’innovation
This pivot toward a business-friendly approach has been building since late 2023, when France tried unsuccessfully to water down provisions in the EU’s AI Act to help domestic firms like Mistral AI, the $6 billion Paris-based startup behind the chatbot Le Chat.
“France sees an opportunity to improve its sluggish economy via the development and promotion of domestic AI services and products,” said Mark Scott, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Research Lab. “Where France does stand apart from others is its lip service to the need for some AI rules, but only in ways that, inevitably, support French companies to compete on the global stage.”
Nuclear power play
France does have unique advantages in its AI: plentiful nuclear power, tons of foreign investment, and established research centers from Silicon Valley tech giants Alphabet and Meta. The country plans to dedicate up to 10 gigawatts of nuclear power to a domestic AI computing facility by 2030 and struck deals this month with both the United Arab Emirates and the Canadian energy company Brookfield.
About 70% of France’s electricity comes from nuclear — a clean energy source that’s become critical to the long-term vision of AI companies like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft.
France vs. the EU
But critics say France’s self-promotion undermines broader European efforts. “While the previous European Commission focused on oversight and regulation, the new cohort appears to follow an entirely different strategy,” said Mia Hoffman, a research fellow at Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology. She warned that EU leaders under the second Ursula von der Leyen-led Commission, which began in September 2024, are “buying into the regulation vs. innovation narrative that dominates technology policy debates in the US.”
The summit itself reflected these tensions. “It looked more like a self-promotion campaign by France to attract talent, infrastructure, and investments, rather than a high-level international summit,” said Jessica Galissaire of the French think tank Renaissance Numérique. She argued that AI leadership “should be an objective for the EU and not member states taken individually.”
This France-first approach marks a significant departure from a more united European tech policy, suggesting France may be more interested in competing with the US and China as a player on the world stage than in strengthening Europe’s collective position in AI development.
US and Russian leaders gather in Riyadh.
Saudis host US-Russia talks, Europe holds emergency meeting on Ukraine
Before Tuesday’s meeting in Saudi Arabia between US and Russian officials to discuss the war in Ukraine and business dealings between the countries, French President Emmanuel Macron convened an emergency meeting in Paris of European leaders on Monday to discuss Ukraine. Neither Europe nor Ukraine were invited to Tuesday’s talks in Riyadh – and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskywas not even formally advised discussions were taking place.
What did European leaders agree on? The gathering wrapped Monday evening with a tweet by European Commission president Ursula von Leyen that “Ukraine deserves peace through strength” – but without any consensus about what that peace would look like. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer expressed willingness to contribute peacekeeping troops, contingent upon a US security guarantee, but Polish President Donald Tusk ruled out sending Polish troops before the meeting even began. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called a discussion of peacekeepers “completely premature” and “highly inappropriate” while the war is ongoing. Scholz also opposed any agreements being made without European or Ukrainian involvement.
What might a deal look like? “It is not yet clear what the US and Russia will be able to agree to or even what the agenda will look like” in Tuesday’s meeting, says Eurasia Group analyst Alex Brideau. “Russian officials have indicated they will be pushing for a broader deal that includes ending the Ukraine war on their terms, along with the resolution of a number of other outstanding security-related grievances. Trump’s main declared goal is to end the war quickly.”
We do know that while the Trump administration doesn’t want the Europeans at the table, it expects Europe to shoulder some of Ukraine’s support. Last week, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the US could reduce the number of troops in Europe as part of the deal with Moscow and that any Ukraine peacekeeping force should lack the protection of NATO’s Article 5. He also signaled that a return to Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders would not happen – meaning that a sixth of Ukraine’s territory could be ceded to Russia.
But that doesn’t mean that Ukraine or Europe will agree to anything the US or Russia negotiate. “Zelensky has made clear he will not accept a deal reached without Ukraine and Europe’s participation,” says Brideau. “He and European leaders will, therefore, be working to ensure that Trump brings them into the discussions and takes their views into account,” noting that they view transatlantic unity as key to the future of any peace deal.
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Photo illustration showing Elon Musk's post on X on a mobile phone, with a Union Jack in the background. Elon Musk has posted a stream of online attacks on British Prime Minister Keir Starmer on his platform X, formerly Twitter.
European leaders call out Elon Musk
Musk has referred to German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who faces an election next month, as a “fool” and has argued that only the nativist Alternative for Germany party can “save Germany.” He has also offered the groundless suggestion that British Prime Minister Keir Starmer was “complicit” in a series of sex scandals that involved the “grooming” of young girls over many years in the UK.
In response, leaders in France, Britain, Germany, and Norway have each found their own ways of telling Musk to stay out of European politics. “Ten years ago, who would have imagined that the owner of one of the world’s largest social networks would be supporting a new international reactionary movement and intervening directly in elections, including in Germany,” asked French President Emmanuel Macron on Monday.
“I find it worrying that a man with enormous access to social media and huge economic resources involves himself so directly in the internal affairs of other countries,” said Norway’s prime minister, Jonas Gahr Støre. “A line has been crossed,” said Britain’s Starmer. “Don’t feed the troll,” warned Scholz.
This criticism looks highly unlikely to chasten Elon Musk, and Trump isn’t going to rein him in. But by calling Musk out publicly these European leaders hope to highlight his broader political agenda for undecided voters.