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Marine Tondelier, of Les Ecologistes party, talks to journalists next to colleagues as they leave a meeting at the Elysee Palace in Paris on Dec. 10. They had met with the French president as part of consultations aimed at appointing a new prime minister.
Macron works to end France’s political deadlock
France finds itself unable to form a government and pass a budget because Macron called an election for July that empowered both right- and left-wing hardliners with no political bloc winning a majority. France has no prime minister at the moment because these hardliners ousted Michel Barnier – who held his post for just 90 days – in a no-confidence vote. That’s the shortest tenure for any PM in the history of France’s Fifth Republic, which began in 1958.
For now, France’s Green Party says it won’t join a “national interest” government. The Socialists insist they will only support a left-wing prime minister, a non-starter for conservatives.
French President Emmanuel Macron shakes hands with US President-elect Donald Trump as he arrives for a meeting at the Elysee Palace in Paris as part of ceremonies to mark the reopening of the Notre-Dame de Paris Cathedral, in Paris, on Dec. 7, 2024.
The Trump Show, Season II
A senior Ukrainian official said Zelensky and Trump discussed "some key conditions" for ending the war with Russia but gave no details. On his Truth Social account, Trump posted “Zelenskyy and Ukraine would like to make a deal and stop the madness. There should be an immediate ceasefire and negotiations should begin.”
Then, on Sunday, NBC aired Trump’s first post-election interview, taped earlier at Trump Tower in New York. Speaking to Kristen Welker on “Meet the Press,” Trump pledged sweeping Day-One actions, from pardoning Jan. 6 rioters to deporting millions of undocumented immigrants. On birthright citizenship? He’d end it. On tariffs? Americans might pay more for goods, but “I can’t guarantee tomorrow.”
On his political enemies? No time for retribution. Instead, he’s focused on “Drill baby drill.” Trump also refused to concede the 2020 election. When asked why he didn’t think Democrats fixed the 2024 vote, he quipped that it was “too big to rig.” Yuuuuge.
French Prime Minister Michel Barnier reacts during the result of the vote on the first motion of no-confidence against the French government, in Paris, France, on Dec. 4, 2024.
Lawmakers vote to oust French government
Just three months ago, President Emmanuel Macron chose Barnier to lead the government after elections earlier this year empowered Macron’s critics on both the left and right, but without giving either side a working parliamentary majority.
On Monday, Barnier tried to break a bitter legislative deadlock over his proposed state budget, which proposes sharp state spending cuts, by using a constitutional provision to push his package through without a parliamentary vote. Barnier haswarned that France spends more to service its debt than on defense or higher education.
Lawmakers were then faced with a choice: Accept Barnier’s powerplay or vote no-confidence in his leadership. They chose to oust him and his budget, and France will now face weeks, perhaps months, of political uncertainty as lawmakers of the left and right fight for control of an institution that neither has enough votes to lead.
Some critics have suggested the only way out of this impasse is for twice-elected President Macron to resign, allowing for elections next year rather than in 2027 as currently scheduled. Macron, though deeply unpopular, has dismissed that idea as “make-believe politics.”
It appears Macron will ask Barnier to remain as prime minister until a replacement can be named, but it will be months before voters can return to the polls. New elections can’t be held within a year of the most recent vote, which took place in July. France’s polarized politics have now left its government unable to pass a budget. It’s unclear how this problem can be resolved.
What France's government collapse means for Macron and Europe
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Parma, Italy.
First question, obviously, is what's happening in France?
The Barnier government didn't last more than 57 days. It was brought down by the populists of the right and the populists of the left. And Barnier tried to do what needs to be done. Bring the French budget under control. They have a deficit of roughly 6% of GDP. That's double what is allowed under the European Union rules and they were headed to 7%. He had proposed a budget of tax cuts and expenditure cuts, take it down to 5%, which is too high anyhow, and brought down. So what will happen now? Well, Marine Le Pen would like to get rid of Macron. I think that's unlikely to happen in the short perspective anyhow. And Macron, the president, will have to find a new prime minister and a new government. That will take its time. And from the wider European perspective, of course, less than ideal. We have an extremely weak government in Germany heading for elections and likely to lose that particular election. We now have a situation where France doesn't have any functioning government either, and we have things happening on the other side of the Atlantic.
Second question, is there any way for the European Union and other Europeans to influence the course of events in Georgia?
Well, one would hope so, but I think prospects are not particularly good. We have an increasingly seemingly authoritarian, I would call it, government leaning towards some sort of, call it, Putin-esque regime, consolidating power using violence, have evidently falsified and rigged elections to a very large extent, and intending to stay in power. And now, we have a fairly significant popular opposition developing on the streets of not only Tbilisi, but several other Georgian cities. Will that result in violence? Will that result in some sort of accommodation? Will that result in it all being repressed? We don't know. EU will have to, and America as well, contemplate sanctions and other measures in a fairly short period of time in order to have any possibility of influencing the course of events. Otherwise, I fear the prospects are rather grim.
French Prime Minister Michel Barnier leaves following the weekly cabinet meeting at the Elysee Palace in Paris, France, on Nov. 27, 2024.
French government barrels toward a brick wall
To stop this bill from becoming law, lawmakers must call and pass a vote of no-confidence in government and, given the unpopularity of both Barnier and the bill with populist critics on both the left and right, that’s what next for France’s latest political meltdown. Facing near-universal condemnation from the left, Barnier has been relying on support from the right-wing populists of the Rassemblement Nationale. The party’s true leader, Marine Le Pen, made her party’s intention clear with a post on social media that accused Barnier of failing to listen to the 11 million voters who backed her party at the last election.
Expect Barnier’s government to collapse on Wednesday. It’s unclear how many weeks or months it will take to form the next French government and to produce a budget that can steady the nerves of investors who’ve become increasingly squeamish about France’s future.
FILE PHOTO: A Kenyan police officer walks in front of an armoured personnel carrier during a joint operation with Haitian police, in Port-au-Prince, Haiti July 29, 2024.
Haitian leaders condemn Macron for calling them “morons”
Haiti’s government was not amused on Friday after French President Emmanuel Macron wascaught on camera calling the island nation’s leaders “morons” for ousting their former prime minister amid escalating gang violence. Macronalso blamed Haitians for “letting drug trafficking take over,” sparking outrage in the former French colony.
The comments have led to renewed demands for reparations for payments Haiti made to France back in 1804. The bill was to account for so-called “lost property,” including slaves, after the country declared independence. Activists claim the payments amounted to over $100 billion and engendered a cycle of perpetual economic and political instability.
Violence has again reached crisis levels. Armed gangs control over 85% of the capital of Port-au-Prince and have attacked prisons, police stations, and the city’s international airport, whichwas closed for the second time this month after gangs fired at passenger planes. This cut off food aid to a populationwhere nearly 6,000 people are starving and 5.4 million are experiencing crisis levels of hunger.
Despite hopes for change, the latest UN-backed security mission led by Kenya has failed to stem the violence. At least 108 suspected gang members were killed over a three-day peroiod last week, and Doctors without Borders has suspended operations in the country. The US pushed for a full UN peacekeeping mission at the Security Council last week, but Russia and China opposed the mission.European Union's chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier talks to journalists in Vienna, Austria June 19, 2018.
France gets a government - but how long will it last?
A droite, s’il vous plaît! Three months after France’s snap election produced a hung parliament, President Emmanuel Macronfinally unveiled a new government with a distinct rightward tilt.
Led by conservative Prime Minister Michel Barnier, the new 39-member cabinet includes ten key figures from the establishment center-right Republican Party, including staunch conservative Bruno Retailleau as interior minister, overseeing immigration. Macron loyalist Sébastien Lecornu will remain defense minister, while Antoine Armand, a low-profile member of Macron’s centrist alliance, took finance.
The only left-winger in the cabinet is independent Didier Migaud, the new justice minister.
Given that the leftwing New Popular Front alliance won the most seats, Macron’s choices put the government on thin ice.
Far-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon dubbed it"a government of the general election losers" and the New Popular Front has threatened a no-confidence motion. That could come as early as October, when Barniermust submit the government’s 2025 budget plan.
Barnier may need to draw support from rightwing parties, including Marine Le Pen’s National Rally. But that’s dicey too. Although National Rally has no government portfolios, it has enough votes to bring it down if it works with the left wing. Cooperating with archrivals might prove too high a hurdle, but we’re watching how Barnie navigates the dangerous waters.French political leaders
Macron has put France’s fate in Le Pen’s hands
President Emmanuel Macron’s appointment of Michel Barnier as France’s new prime minister on Sept. 5 has put an end to two months of political deadlock and disarray triggered by the Jul. 7 parliamentary election result. But with the far right’s Marine Le Pen having emerged as kingmaker in a deeply fractured parliament, the respite for Macron, Barnier, and France could prove short-lived – and costly.
Since the founding of the Fifth Republic in 1958, France has had majority governments aligned with the president, majority governments opposed to the president (“cohabitations”), and – in the last two years – minority governments that have struggled to enact the president’s legislative agenda but have nonetheless had enough support in parliament to evade censure.
That era of broad stability is now over. Macron’s surprise election returned a hung National Assembly split into three-and-a-half ideological blocs. For the first time in 62 years, no party, bloc, or natural alliance won anywhere near the 289 out of 577 seats needed to govern comfortably or to survive censure. This means that any government that emerged was bound to be the most fragile in recent French history.
Following a brief Olympic truce, Macron finally launched negotiations to form a new government on Aug. 23. The left-wing New Popular Front insisted that it was entitled to elevate a little-known radical to the top job who’d reverse the president’s agenda and blow up France’s deficit, despite holding only one-third (193) of deputies in the assembly. Macron, who has the sole constitutional right to nominate the prime minister, refused.
Such a government, he argued correctly, would have zero chance of surviving immediate censure by Macron’s center (166 seats), the ex-Gaullist center right (47 seats), and Le Pen’s far right (142 seats). Outraged, the left took to the streets in force on Sept. 7, accusing Macron of “trampling democracy” and “staging a coup.” But it’s hard to argue with the president’s math.
And math is the main reason why Barnier was named to the post.
Yes, the 73-year-old former Brexit negotiator and veteran of the center right is a pragmatic dealmaker with an independent streak who would build a coalition of “national unity” from center right to center left. Barnier also promised to let Macron do his own thing on foreign affairs and defense, and he pledged to try to preserve the bulk of the president’s labor market and pension reforms. But he was far from Macron’s first choice. The two men had clashed in the past, and Macron exhausted several other options before finally nominating him.
Here’s the kicker, though: Unlike Macron’s first picks for the role, the former Socialist Prime Minister Bernard Cazeneuve and the center-right president of the northern French region Xavier Bertrand, Le Pen signaled that her party would not join the left in an immediate no-confidence vote against Barnier. And without her implicit blessing, no government could hope to survive contact with the National Assembly, as the left is committed to voting down candidates from the center and right.
Le Pen’s willingness to passively tolerate Barnier’s appointment suggests that, at this moment, she believes her political interests are best served by appearing to be on the side of stability rather than chaos. Moreover, she has reportedly been promised that the new government will advance her party’s policy priorities on immigration, the cost of living, and proportional representation voting – the latter a long-standing demand of the National Rally to better its chances of winning future elections.
How far will this constructive approach go? We will get a glimpse into the limits of Le Pen’s strategy when the new government is confronted with its first and toughest test in a few weeks. Facing the prospect of a destructive fiscal crisis, Barnier and his new finance minister (whoever he picks) will have to propose some way of filling a €16 billion hole in this year’s budget and introduce a deficit-cutting draft budget for 2025 by Oct. 1 to prevent punishment by the European Commission and financial markets. Both the amended 2024 budget and the draft 2025 budget will require far-right votes to pass the National Assembly.
Le Pen will then face an uncomfortable but clear choice. If she supports (or acquiesces to) draconian spending cuts, she won’t face an internal revolt, but she’ll be accused by the left and even some on the right of being a tool of the establishment. But if she precipitates the government’s collapse only weeks into her newfound kingmaker role, she’ll be blamed for plunging France into an unprecedented political and economic crisis. She will also potentially spoil her best chance to influence the country’s direction, legitimize the National Rally, and win the presidency in her fourth attempt in 2027. On balance, Le Pen will probably go the “responsible” way in this instance, choosing to edge Barnier’s government toward her preferred policies while keeping her veto powder dry for future legislative priorities.
And that is precisely the problem for Macron and Barnier. Even if they manage to steer France out of this budget crisis, Le Pen’s calculus could change at any moment – and it will be within her power to bring down the government whenever she pleases. All she has to do is add her party’s 142 assembly votes to the 193 held by the four-party left alliance – which is furious at Macron and will undoubtedly introduce, not to mention support, countless censure motions – to produce many more votes than the 289 needed for a majority.
Macron’s shock election has placed the fate of France’s fragile new government in the hands of his archrival. Quite the failure for a leader who had made it his life’s mission to consign Le Penism to the dustbin of history. Whether or not she ends up succeeding him in 2027, Le Pen has never been closer to the levers of power than she is today.