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Former President Donald Trump gestures to supporters as he hosts a campaign rally at the Forum River Center in Rome, Georgia, March 9, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Truth Social’s big day, Missing migrants, Chinese workers killed in Pakistan, Palestinians drown reaching for aid
50%: Shares in former President Donald Trump’s social media business, Trump Media & Technology Group, jumped by more than 50% on Tuesday after going public under the ticker DJT. The stock rose as high as $79.38. The company’s stock market debut was made possible by a merger between Trump Media (which owns Twitter-clone Truth Social) and Digital World Acquisition. Trump owns 58% of the company’s shares, but it’s unlikely to help with his recent money issues because he can’t sell his shares for six months.
63,000: Over 63,000 people have died or gone missing while migrating over the past decade, according to a report published Tuesday by the International Organization for Migration, the UN migration agency. Most of the recorded deaths were caused by drowning, and the majority — over 28,000 — occurred in the Mediterranean. The report cautioned that its tally was “likely only a fraction of the actual number of lives lost worldwide.”
5: At least five Chinese workers and a Pakistani driver were killed in Pakistan on Tuesday when a suicide bomber slammed into the van they were traveling in. No group has claimed responsibility. China has invested billions in infrastructure projects in Pakistan, but Chinese workers and interests have repeatedly come under attack by Baluch separatists and the Pakistani Taliban.
12: At least 12 Palestinians drowned on Monday while attempting to retrieve aid packages that fell into the Mediterranean during airdrops, authorities in Gaza said Tuesday. Strict Israeli restrictions on aid truck deliveries have seen a number of governments, including the US, to turn to airdrops to deliver assistance as famine looms in the war-torn enclave. It’s not clear which country dropped the aid that was tied to the reported fatalities, but the Pentagon on Tuesday said several bundles of aid dropped by the US on Monday landed in the sea due to parachute malfunctions.
“Everything is political” is personal: the NYC migrant crisis
“Do you know,”
Jhon asked me, shivering slightly in the lengthening afternoon shadows of New York’s Penn Station, “do you know if we can stay here – in America?”
Jhon is a wiry 42-year-old construction worker who fled Ecuador a month ago with his wife and four children. The recent surge of narco-violence there had gotten so bad, he said, that the local school switched to virtual classes for the safety of the students and their parents.
Now, after a trying journey by foot, boat, bus, and train, he was standing in the middle of New York City, bewildered but hopeful.
“I just want to work,” he told me. “I don’t want anyone to take care of me or to rely on anyone else. I just want to be able to work.”
But in those early moments, Jhon and his family did need help – to find their way to New York’s intake center for migrants seeking shelter, to learn to navigate the city’s byzantine health and legal systems, to stay on track with their asylum applications.
In that way, he is like many of the more than 170,000 undocumented migrants who have arrived in New York City over the past two years, most of them on buses from Texas.
The city government says it’s struggling to deal with the influx. Mayor Eric Adams has warned that providing services to the migrants will “destroy this city” and cost more than $12 billion. But a small group of grassroots non-profits has stepped up to welcome, orient, and support the new arrivals.
I met Jhon while shadowing Power Malu, an Afro-Puerto Rican activist from New York’s Lower East Side, whose Artists Athletes Activists organization is one of the subjects of a new report I’ve been working on for our TV show “GZERO World with Ian Bremmer.”
Nearly every day and night for almost two years, Power’s been at Gotham’s various bus and train stations, welcoming migrants like Jhon, giving a guiding hand to people who arrive in a city of millions after a journey of months and simply don’t know whom to trust or where to go.
Over the past few weeks, we’ve spent many hours with Power and other activists in New York – like Adama Bah, a formerly undocumented migrant from Guinea who has built the largest Black-oriented migrant services network in the city (a big deal given that migrants from Haiti or West Africa are chronically underserved by systems geared mainly towards Latinos), and Ilze Thielmann, who started a free “store” that gives clothing, strollers, and toiletries to recent migrants.
Along the way, we met people like Igor, a refugee from violence in Burundi who left behind a cushy job as an IT manager and traveled through Mexico on foot with his pregnant wife to get to the US. He finally got asylum several weeks ago.
Or Brandon, from Venezuela, who braved the treacherous Darién Gap and the constant gauntlets of extortion, kidnapping, and violence in Mexico on his journey to New York, and who now works with Power to welcome others who followed the same route.
Why did my producer Molly Rubin and I pick this subject? Migration is now the top political issue in America. A recent poll showed close to three in 10 voters say border policy is their primary concern, topping the list for the first time since 2019, and outstripping other perennial contenders like “the economy,” “inflation,” or the always exciting “crime.”
But when it comes to the crisis at the southern border and its impact on Northern cities, the gigantic numbers can dull your sense of what is actually happening here: A story about “millions” of migrants crossing the border, or the “billions” of dollars it will cost, is still a story about individual human beings, with names, who have lived stories of tremendous suffering, perseverance, and dedication.
“Everything is political,” we often say at GZERO. And that’s true. But everything political is ultimately personal too. If it’s not, why would it matter at all?
This is one story that Molly and I hope will drive that home. You can check it out here, and let us know what you think.
Learn more about the organizations mentioned in this report:
FILE PHOTO: Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (left), President of Mexico, and Justin Trudeau (right), Prime Minister of Canada, are delivering a message to the media at the National Palace in Mexico City,on January 10, 2023, on the occasion of their meeting with Joe Biden, President of the United States, at the 10th North American Leaders' Summit, where they are discussing migration, economic and drug trafficking issues.
Will Trudeau bring back visas for Mexican visitors?
Justin Trudeausaid last week that Canada is in talks with Mexico to try to find ways to cut down on the number of asylum-seekers flying into Canada with the help of organized criminal groups.
Trudeau is under pressure from the Conservatives, and the Americans to reinstate a visa requirement on Mexican travelers, which his government lifted in 2016. The government said last month it is considering doing so.
The Biden administration would also like the visas to return because the number of migrants crossing the northern border has spiked in the past year — 2,200 interceptions in 2023, up 240% from 2022. Most of the crossings are made in the lightly patrolled areas of upstate New York, New Hampshire, and Vermont.
The route via Canada to the US is appealing to Mexicans and other Latin Americans who face detention and deportation at the more heavily patrolled southern border. A network of human smugglers has sprung up to facilitate the crossings, but would-be migrants face danger in the cold northern woods.
The Liberal government seems to be signaling that it’s working with Mexico rather than moving immediately to require Mexican visitors to apply for visas, which would be a setback for the trade and diplomatic relationship.
The beach, Red Sea State, Port Sudan, Sudan.
Sudan’s lost sea access worsens humanitarian disaster
Since fighting between rival military factions in Sudan erupted last April, nearly 8 million people have been displaced, and 24 million require urgent food aid. But the crisis now may begin to beggar description as the country loses access to its Red Sea coast and migrants stream across its borders.
Refugee influx. Over 400,000 Sudanese refugees have fled to Libya, where they face long waits for registration, leading many to turn to smugglers to attempt dangerous Europe-bound sea crossings. Their first destination is Italy, with nearly 6,000 Sudanese refugees arriving there in 2023.
Numbers are expected to soar this year, prompting Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni to urge support for investments designed to disincentivize migration. Meloni unveiled a plan last month to enhance energy cooperation with African states and assist them in areas including health and education, at a cost of 3 million euros annually for four years.
Impact of Houthi attacks. Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have cut off Sudanese ports and are disrupting aid shipments, forcing humanitarian agencies to reroute deliveries at significantly higher costs. Some shipments are delayed, others are stuck altogether, and still more face exorbitant air-freight costs. Aid workers describe the situation as "catastrophic" and fear mass starvation is imminent.The Rainbow Bridge over the Niagara River links the borders of Niagara Falls in Ontario, Canada, to Niagara Falls in New York.
Hard Numbers: Migrants head for US-Canada border, Canada flies fresh F-16 funds to Ukraine, Big Oil plans for a Big Crash, Toronto cans scan plan
191,603: While the immigration crisis at the southern US border has commanded significant attention in recent months, the northern border with Canada is becoming more popular with asylum-seekers, undocumented migrants, and human traffickers. In 2023, officials recorded 191,603 encounters with people crossing into the United States via Canada without papers, more than 40% higher than the year before but still less than one-tenth the volume along the US-Mexico frontier.
60 million: Canada pledged to send Ukraine $60 million in support for F-16 jet maintenance and ammunition. The move, part of a larger $500 million pledge made last spring, comes as congressional infighting, public fatigue, and election jockeying continue to hold up tens of billions of dollars worth of fresh support for Kyiv from the US.
30: Given where gas prices are these days you wouldn’t think it, but global oil giants like Shell, Exxon, Chevron, and Total are carefully preparing for the possibility of another oil price crash, beefing up their production at newer oil fields that are profitable even if oil prices plummet to $30 a barrel. As of this writing, that was less than half the price of a barrel, which is hovering around $75.
6: The Ontario government has canceled a pilot program in which people’s IDs would have been scanned at the entrances to six Toronto-area liquor stores. The program was meant as an experiment to find ways to boost security at liquor stores, but it immediately generated privacy concerns, since the data would have been held in government systems for 14 days.
Senator James Lankford (R-OK) speaks to media during a Senate vote, at the U.S. Capitol, in Washington, D.C., on Thursday, February 1, 2024.
Senate announces plan for Ukraine-Border deal – Trump calls it “meaningless”
A bipartisan group of US Senators released an outline of a deal Sunday that would send billions to Ukraine, Israel, and Gaza and beef up US border security after months of wrangling. Too bad House Speaker Mike Johnson called it “dead on arrival.”
Show me the money. Overall, the price tag will cross $118 billion, including ~$60 billion for Ukraine, ~$20 billion for border security, ~$14 billion in security aid to Israel, and ~$10 billion for humanitarian aid in Gaza. The bill also creates new pathways to legal migration and raises the standards of evidence a migrant faces persecution at home needed to claim asylum. Folks who meet the new standards will be able to work and live in the US pending a hearing, and especially compelling cases may even be granted asylum on the spot by an immigration officer.
Will it see the light of day? With former President Donald Trump actively campaigning against the bill, smart money says “no.” He’d like to keep the immigration issue in the headlines to hammer President Joe Biden with – and the situation underscores the dynamics within the Republican Party, where a candidate who holds no office is influencing legislative priorities.
The fact is, Johnson stands to lose his job – just like his predecessor did – if he crosses Trump on this, so his diagnosis may prove prescient.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni
Italy aims to export migrant crisis to Albania
Can Albania accept migrants deported by Italy? A court in Tirana is deciding on the legality of an agreement with the Italian government, in which Rome can send EU asylum-seekers to the Balkan country.
The Albanian courts technically have until March 6 to make a decision, but their verdict is expected to come sooner because both sides have something important to gain. Under the deal, which has been tacitly endorsed by the EU, up to 36,000 migrants a year would wait in Albania while Italy rules on their asylum claims. In exchange, Italy has pledged to support Albania’s bid to join the EU. Italy would fund and run the migrant facilities, but the land would remain in Albania’s hands.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who was elected last year in part on a pledge to tamp down illegal migration, is desperate to limit the number of migrants entering the EU through Italy, which has increased by 50% over the past year.
But human rights groups worry the deal could incentivize more EU nations to deport migrants to third countries in Europe, where they are unable to ensure the same standard of asylum rights. The UK, of course, is in the final stages of passing a similar bill in which asylum-seekers would be deported to Rwanda while their asylum claims are processed.
A tale of two approaches to immigration
Over the last 60 years or so, the United States and Canada have admitted tens of millions of immigrants. In 1960, fewer than 10 million people in the US were foreign-born – a mere 5% of the population. Today, there are over 46 million immigrants in the country, comprising roughly 14% of the population.
By contrast, in 1961, Canada was home to 2.8 million immigrants, or 15.6% of the country – considerably more than the US per capita. In 2022, Canada welcomed a record number of people with over 430,000 arriving, and the latest census in 2021 found over 8.3 million – or nearly 1-in-4 people – are immigrants or permanent residents.
The popular imagination in Canada might assume the country is more welcoming, evolved, and progressive on immigration than the US, but the two countries have more in common on this issue than you might expect.
As crises in housing, education, healthcare, and affordability in general persist – and worsen – Canadians and their leaders are increasingly likely to consider immigration a source of tension.
Liberal immigration woes
In 2022, Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government announced new, higher, immigration targets that included a plan to incrementally increase the number of permanent residents Canada accepts from 405,000 in 2021 to 500,00 in 2025. At the same time, the number of temporary residents was rising. There were roughly 2.2 million non-permanent residents – including upward of 900,000 international students – in Canada in 2023. That’s nearly 50% more non-permanent residents than in 2022.
But now, amid a housing shortage, Canada’s Immigration Minister Marc Miller is considering ideas to ‘rein in’ the number of temporary residents in the country, including a potential cap on how many are admitted. Miller is taking particular aim at foreign students – who are critical to university funding in the country – saying the system is “out of control.” Housing Minister Sean Fraser is even open to the idea of basing immigration numbers on the housing supply – an idea supported by Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre.
Earlier this week, news broke that the federal government is considering restricting the number of international students in certain provinces that are facing acute housing shortages. A source cited Ontario, British Columbia, and Nova Scotia as potential targets. The minister’s office has not confirmed that such a plan exists.
A recent poll by Leger, in November 2023, found that about 75% of respondents say an increase in immigration is exacerbating the housing crisis in Canada. Roughly the same number say it’s putting pressure on the healthcare system, while two-thirds say it’s affecting the education system.
The poll also found softening support for welcoming newcomers, including nearly 48% who believe Canada should lower its immigration rate. That number includes 64% of Conservatives who wish to see fewer newcomers compared to 29% of Liberals, indicating a partisan divide.
The cross-partisan battle for newcomers
For decades, immigration in Canada has enjoyed a popular, cross-party consensus in support of newcomers that included broadly positive discourse around the issue, though typically that support has been tied to immigrants as a labor source and newcomers as economic drivers. In the United States, the public and politicians share the same view, with immigrants cast as economy builders, but the issue has been heavily politicized along partisan lines while irregular migration has shaped attitudes and increased anti-immigration sentiment.
Graeme Thompson, a senior analyst with Eurasia Group's global macro-geopolitics practice, says that in Canada both the Liberals and Conservatives want to win the support of diaspora communities and newcomers, which has affected the politics of immigration in the country.
“Both parties want to win votes in suburban Vancouver and Toronto. They’re fishing in the same pond when it comes to pursuing the votes of new Canadians,” he says. Consequently, neither party wants to alienate immigrants with an anti-immigration posture.
American attitudes similar to Canadian
In the US, however, not only has the partisan politicization of immigration across party lines led to greater controversy, says Thompson, but irregular migration along the southern border has also shaped opinions about immigration and produced toxic discourse and politics.
Despite the sharp partisan divide, Americans nonetheless support immigration and US numbers aren’t so different from Canadian numbers. In July 2023, Gallup found that 68% of the country believed immigration was a good thing, and a majority wanted to see the same number or more immigrants. Similar to Canadian numbers, 41% of people wanted to see fewer immigrants, up from an all-time low of 28% in 2020. That 41% is conditioned by partisan affiliation, with 73% of Republicans wanting to see the number of immigrants decline compared to 18% of Democrats – a more pronounced partisan split than in Canada.
A hot-button election issue?
With the US presidential election coming in November, a Canadian election due by October 2025, and persistent affordability and social service issues, immigration is set to become a critical issue on both sides of the border.
In the US, Thompson expects immigration to play out as it typically does, including a Republican focus on irregular migrants and strengthening the border.
“In a really powerful sense, as a hot-button issue, immigration is going to be front of mind for American voters,” he says. That’s especially true as irregular crossings are up along the Mexican border and governors are sending migrants to northern cities, including New York, where Mayor Eric Adams says the city can’t handle the numbers.
In Canada, Thompson says, the immigration framing will be more a derivative of “bread and butter issues.”
“I don’t think Canadians will turn anti-immigrant. But I think they will become more skeptical in the context of housing shortages, affordability issues, and strains on the healthcare and education systems.”
Immigration is set to be a central issue in both Canada and the US in the coming months and years and will shape political fortunes as we approach two big elections. And while both countries are receptive to immigrants, there’s a risk that pro-immigration attitudes in the US decline.
There’s also a risk that Canada’s longstanding, cross-partisan consensus on welcoming newcomers fractures as crises in housing, education, healthcare, and affordability persist. The need to find policy solutions that respond to pressures without scapegoating newcomers is important and will test the current crop of leadership, threatening political incumbents – and immigrants, too.