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A migrant carries his child after crossing the Darien Gap and arriving at the migrant reception center, in the village of Lajas Blancas, Darien Province, Panama, on September 26, 2024.
The migration issue will only get worse
On Tuesday, a coalition government in the Netherlands collapsed. The trigger? Geert Wilders, leader of the anti-immigration Party of Freedom (PVV) and a coalition partner, demanded new restrictions on the government’s grant of asylum to migrants. When these weren’t met, he pulled his party from the governing coalition.
Elsewhere in Europe, anti-immigration frustrations have fueled the rising political fortunes of nativist parties and politicians in France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, the United Kingdom, and several other countries. In the United States, Donald Trump was again elected president in 2024 after centering his campaign not just on curbing illegal immigration across the southern border from Mexico, but also on deporting millions of undocumented immigrants.
This political trend isn’t limited to wealthy Western countries. The entry of a million Rohingya Muslims fleeing a bloody state crackdown in Myanmar has roiled the politics of Bangladesh. Refugees are moving across African borders in large numbers, fueling violence in many countries.
Globally, the number of people on the move is on the rise. In 2024, the UN reported 304 million international migrants, nearly double the number in 1990.
There are three main drivers of all these border crossings. The first is violence. Wars force civilians to flee, but less organized violence – like criminal gang activity in Central America – also pushes people to seek new lives abroad.
The second driver is climate change. Changing weather patterns disrupt farming, fishing, and herding, and can generate famine. Rising sea levels force people from over-crowded, low-lying areas.
But the principal cause is that a clear majority of the world’s migrants are simply looking for better economic opportunities for themselves and their families. This is especially true for those in developing countries. Counterintuitively, it isn’t poverty but their rising incomes that give them new opportunities to move toward richer countries.
Given these sources of migration, we should expect bigger waves ahead. The current lack of leadership in the international system, a problem that Eurasia Group’s Ian Bremmer calls the “G-zero world order,” will make armed conflict and an expansion of the world’s ungoverned spaces within countries, both more likely and more violent.
The Institute for the Study of Economics and Peace, a think tank, warns that more than one billion people live in 31 countries where “the country’s resilience is unlikely to sufficiently withstand the impact of ecological events” by 2050, contributing to “mass population displacement,” and that as many as 3.5 billion people could suffer from food insecurity by that date.
What’s more, as living standards and populations continue to grow in developing countries, more people will have the opportunity to move abroad.
As people increasingly go on the road, the politics in wealthy countries will also become uglier. Politicians on one side will insist that all new border restrictions are hateful and cruel, while those on the other will warn that surges of new arrivals will spread crime and disease.
Even when the debate is more nuanced, political leaders seem more interested in scoring points – and raising cash – at the other side’s expense than in finding common ground and enacting sensible immigration policies.
This deadlock over how to accommodate hundreds of millions of migrants in coming years will ensure this problem will become a much larger-scale international emergency than it is today. The situation in the Netherlands is the tip of the iceberg.
And, speaking as the husband of someone who migrated to America as a six-year-old girl, the scale of human tragedy becomes almost unthinkable.
A damaged portion of Bilal Mosque is seen after it was hit by an Indian strike in Muzaffarabad, the capital of Pakistan-administered Kashmir, on May 7, 2025.
India launches strikes on Pakistan
It was never going to end quietly: India early on Wednesday bombed what it said were nine militant sites within Pakistan and Pakistani-administered Kashmir, reportedly killing at least 26 people in the worst clash between the two countries in decades.
Warning signs. India launched the strikes in retaliation for a terrorist rampage in the Indian-controlled portion of Kashmir last month. Pakistan says it had nothing to do with that attack.
Pakistani response now inbound. Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif called the Indian airstrikes an “act of war,” and has reportedly authorized the military to respond in kind.
Reaction from abroad. Major countries including the US, Japan, France, and China – which has close ties to Pakistan but borders both countries – called for restraint. Israel notably issued its unequivocal support for India and its right to self defense.
What will happen next? “Pakistan has traditionally responded with a tit for tat response, normally a bombing run on a minor target on Indian soil,” said Pramit Pal Chaudhuri, Eurasia Group’s South Asia practice head. However, Chaudhuri doesn’t expect the fighting to last long.
“Both sides are nuclear armed, neither has overwhelming military dominance and both lack the economic or political interest in a sustained conflict,” said Chaudhuri. “These skirmishes tend to die out within 24 to 48 hours.”
The future of modern warfare
Technology in Ukraine is transforming the battlefield in real time. How will it change the US national security strategy? And could what's happening in Ukraine shift China’s President Xi Jinping’s future plans in Taiwan? Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Admiral James Stravridis joins Ian Bremmer on GZERO World to talk about how technology is creating a “new triad” of warfare, i.e., unmanned systems, cyber and artificial intelligence, and special forces.
Modern conflict no longer requires huge standing armies to fight effectively; just look at Ukraine’s success in the Black Sea. Smaller militaries are increasingly using drones, satellites, and unmanned systems against larger armies. Stavridis says Taiwan is a “resistance fighter’s dream” because of its geography and resources. Plus, it manufactures about half of the world’s computer chips, which China relies on for its technology infrastructure. But Stavridis also warns the same technology is empowering malefactors and terrorist groups, creating dangerous asymmetrical warfare.
“The US will continue to be the preeminent nation at projecting power. China will make a play to do it. Russia, the lights are going to go out,” the Admiral says, “But it’s acts of terrorism and the ability to use weapons of mass disruption, that’s what you need to worry about.”
For more on technology and the transformation of war, check out Admiral Stavridis’ book "2054: A Novel". His newest book, "The Restless Wave", a historical novel about the rise of new technology in the Pacific during WWII, is out October 8.
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
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The future of war: James Stavridis on China, Russia, and the biggest security threats to the US
Technology is rapidly changing how modern wars are being fought, and the United States needs to reevaluate its national security priorities to adapt. Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander, Admiral James Stavridis, joins Ian Bremmer on the GZERO World Podcast to discuss the transformation of war, China’s calculus in Taiwan, and the biggest threats facing the US, both inside the border and abroad. Stavridis warns China is still intent on pursuing its expansionist goals and territorial claims in the South China Sea. He also thinks President Xi Jinping may be looking at Russia’s stalled Ukraine invasion, as well as the global reaction to it, and wondering whether military action in Taiwan is in China’s best interest. Stavridis predicts a “new triad” of warfare–unmanned systems, artificial intelligence, and cyber special forces–will lead armies around the world to shift their focus from personnel and artillery to unmanned systems and AI. While it will lead to reduced costs for traditional militaries, it’s also empowering terrorist groups and malefactors in an increasingly high-stakes game of asymmetrical warfare. Stavridis’ newest book, The Restless Wave, is out October 8.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.
UN flags and logo.
Scandals and hope at the UN: Is it worth it?
What good is the United Nations in 2024?
With wars raging, AI disrupting, inequality growing, and climate change accelerating, UN Secretary-General António Guterres says that “a powder keg risks engulfing the world.”
That’s one reason why the GZERO team is paying close attention to a giant gabfest, where leaders like President Joe Biden and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, policymakers, diplomats, and influencers from 193 countries have gathered this week to try to solve some of the world’s most intractable problems.
It’s why you saw Ian Bremmer’s exclusive interview with Guterres on our PBS TV program GZERO World or, as we reported today in our morning newsletter, we have Iran’s Vice President for Strategic Affairs Mohammad Javad Zarif on the show denying that Iran was involved in the assassination attempts on former President Donald Trump, while admitting that US election hacking came from someone in his country. Watch the clip here and tune in next week for the full interview on GZERO World with Ian Bremmer.
It’s also why we hosted and broadcast a series of key livestreams with world leaders covering everything from governing AI to the conflicts in Europe, Lebanon, Gaza, and Ukraine.
I have been incredibly proud of the work the team has done sorting through the global noise to get at the clear political signals while highlighting the issues in an insightful, nonpartisan way.
But the question remains: Why bother paying attention to the UN?
It’s easy to be cynical about the UN. As Brett Stephens once described it, “The U.N. is a never-ending scandal disguised as an everlasting hope. The hope is that dialogue can overcome distrust, and collective security can be made to work in the interests of humanity. Reality says otherwise.”
Scandals, failures, hypocrisies, and disappointments fly around the UN as prominently as the flags around its New York City headquarters, and Stephens waved many of them, from the failure to stop the genocide in Rwanda and the massacre in Srebrenica, to corruption in the oil-for-food program in Iraq. That was back in 2018.
Today there are even more, from the outrage surrounding allegations that some UNRWA workers worked with Hamas during the Oct. 7 massacres, to the obstructive dysfunctions of the five permanent members that have veto powers, which has proven to be a tragic obstacle to real global action in key conflicts, like Sudan. It’s hard to take the UN seriously when Iran gets a turn chairing its Human Rights Council Social Forum.
Even reading through the main agenda of the 79th General Assembly session, it’s understandable why some critics experience high-speed eye-rolling that rivals the backspin on a Roger Federer backhand. For example, one goal says: “Achieving global nuclear disarmament is the highest disarmament priority of the United Nations.” How’s that going? Just yesterday, Russian leader Vladimir Putin announced that he was alerting his nuclear doctrine to lower the threshold needed to justify the use of nuclear weapons, a major escalation in the war in Ukraine.
Meanwhile, less than 20% of the famed 17 Sustainable Development Goals are on track to be completed by 2030.
“The Secretariat Building in New York has 38 stories. If you lost 10 stories today it wouldn’t make a bit of difference,” quipped John Bolton, the US ambassador to the UN under former President George W. Bush. Many critics today still think he’s right.
But is he?
Only pointing out the UN’s failures to solve complex global problems is like describing Ted Williams as a guy who failed to get a hit 60% of the time, instead of noting that a baseball player hitting .400 is one of the greatest feats in sports. It’s like dismissing venture capital investors as losers because at least 80% of their investments go bust, instead of focusing on the ones that succeed and more than make up for the other losses. In very hard challenges, a low success rate can still be a major victory.
Back in 1973, Horst Rittel and Melvin Webber coined the term “wicked problem” to describe political, environmental, or security challenges that are uniquely difficult to solve and may have no single right answer. That’s where the UN is needed most, to pull in global voices that often disagree or are at war with each other and make a genuine attempt to solve wicked problems. That takes time.
The fact is, there are many UN successes, notably the World Food Programme, which helps over 80 million people, delivering food, medicines, and vaccines to countries in crisis. There are peace treaties and accords establishing norms and conventions, including the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, its most famous document.
This past week, there was a major success in global governance on AI with the Global Digital Compact, which was signed by most major countries except Russia. They agreed to everything from global standards on accessibility, use, and design, to the establishment of an international scientific panel, which will — like the IPCC does for climate — create a measuring tool and a road map for how AI governance might unfold. There is literally no other place in the world where this could happen.
Is there a need for UN reform? Of course. That is why, for example, there is a strong push to create two permanent seats for Africa on the Security Council. In this video that I urge you to check out, Ian Bremmer argues that despite the challenges facing the world’s largest multilateral organization, the UN is more relevant than ever.
But the institution is only as good as the members make it through their financial contributions, attendance, and support. One of the key challenges is making all the work that is happening — and there is a lot — understandable and relevant to the wider public in order to overcome the massive trust deficit the UN faces.
Reestablishing trust takes radical transparency, and that’s why GZERO has made such an effort to pull back the curtain and give people a chance to see, hear, and debate the real policies and ideas that are being pitched. You should be able to judge for yourself if the UN is useful or not. We hope our coverage gives you the tools to do just that.
Why Giles Duley advocates for the forgotten victims of war
In 2011, documentary photographer Giles Duley had what he describes as his “worst day at the office,” a day when he was critically injured by an improvised explosive device in Afghanistan. He lost both of his legs and his left arm, ended up in the hospital for a year, and was operated on 37 times. Duley was told he would never walk again, but 18 months after nearly being killed, he returned to Afghanistan and was back on the job.
“I realized that if I went back to do the work that I did, I would be better at it. I would have that relationship with the people that I documented that nobody else would,” Duley told GZERO this week in a conversation at the SDG Media Zone during the 79th UN General Assembly.
Duley is now the UN’s first global advocate for persons with disabilities in conflict and peacebuilding situations. He’s dedicated his life to documenting and spreading awareness on the long-term impact of war. Through his organization, Legacy of War Foundation, Duley also works to provide vital assistance to civilians affected by conflict.
With civilian casualties from landmines and explosive ordnance on the rise, particularly in places like Ukraine and Myanmar, Duley’s work could not be more pertinent. He’s calling for greater efforts to clear munitions used in present-day conflicts. If more isn’t done in this regard, Duley warns that “children not yet born will die from these wars.”
Russian Black Sea Fleet commander still alive despite Ukraine's claims
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Is Russian commander Sokolov still alive?
Black Sea fleet commander. The Ukrainians said he was killed in a missile strike, but after that missile strike, he's attending a meeting with the Kremlin and looks very much alive. Should all remember that there is a lot of disinformation and a lot of misinformation in the fog of war. You remember that Snake Island strike. And that, of course, turned out those guys didn't die. They were made prisoner and then they were released. So Russians are absolutely at fault for the invasion. Ukrainian information is meant to promote Ukrainian efforts in the war. And this is one of those instances.
Will the West intervene in Nagorno-Karabakh?
Intervene in the sense that they are trying to put pressure on the Turks and the Azeris not to engage in war crimes, not to support war crimes against the Armenians, the 120,000 Armenians living in this autonomous region that is part of Azerbaijan. Thousands and thousands are streaming out, getting out. They're not forced out, but they certainly don't feel that they're going to be safe in this region for long. The war has been lost pretty decisively by the Armenians. And the question I suspect that you are going to see a level of ethnic cleansing, ethnic migration of the Armenians from this space is going to be problematic. Armenia itself is a small country. It's going to be a serious burden for them to resettle these people. And of course, it's been their homes and their homes for generations. It's very sad to see like we've seen in the Balkans, like we've seen in Iraq after the Iraq war. But it's hard to imagine anybody intervening at this point to stop that from happening. That's where I think we are. Armenia's best friend has been Russia, and that's not very useful for them.
How is China's proactive approach to trilateral cooperation impacting its relations with South Korea and Japan?
Well, it's making them harder, especially because Japan right now is on a, their food, their seafood is being banned from China. It's a significant export because of the irradiated water from Fukushima that is being released into the Pacific. Certainly, I have a hard time seeing a friendly trilateral relationship given that and I don't think it would be fixed anytime soon. But the South Koreans and the Chinese are working hard to try to make this work, and it doesn't need to be at the head of state level. It historically hasn't been frequently. I suspect that comes off and it will be formulaic and incrementally positive, but won't lead to an immediate breakthrough in relations between those two countries.
- Disinformation the “biggest threat” from Russia – Anne-Marie Slaughter ›
- UN Security Council debates Nagorno-Karabakh ›
- Nagorno-Karabakh war flares again ›
- Armenia, Azerbaijan & the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis that needs attention ›
- Yoon leads South Korea away from China, toward the US ›
- Ian Explains: Why China’s era of high growth is over ›
- China to shake up Russia-Ukraine war ›
- Ukraine war sees escalation of weapons and words ›
- Russia-Ukraine war: How we got here ›
- “Crimea river”: Russia & Ukraine’s water conflict ›
Members of the Ukrainian Territorial Defense Forces watch the FIFA World Cup 2022 qualification playoff semi-final soccer match between Scotland and Ukraine.
Hard Numbers: Ukraine eyes a Qatar ticket, CAR abolishes executions, Croatia gets into the ‘Zone, Conservatives romp in South Korea
1: With their homeland ravaged by war, Ukraine’s national soccer team is putting up a stunning fight of its own at the World Cup qualifiers – the “yellow-blues” are now just one win away from qualifying for a ticket to the 2022 World Cup in Qatar later this year. They play Wales on Sunday.
170: The Central African Republic has become the latest of about 170 countries to abolish the death penalty. Last year executions around the world jumped by about 20%, though overall use of the death penalty has been declining for more than a decade.
20: Croatia will officially join the Eurozone next year, making it the 20th country to adopt the euro as its currency. Croatia has been a member of the European Union since 2013.
12: South Korea's conservative People Power Party of recently elected President Yoon Suk-yeol won 12 out of 17 races for big-city mayors and governors in a significant boost for Yoon’s power just three weeks into his tenure.