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Ukraine’s cabinet shakeup comes at precarious moment
Ukraine had an eventful and tragic Wednesday. Seven people were killed as Russia carried out an attack on the western city of Lviv, which is far from the front lines, in a grim reminder that nowhere in Ukraine is safe as the war continues. Four of those killed were from the same family, including a mother and her three daughters. The father survived the attack but is reportedly in critical condition.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kulebaresigned as part of an expected cabinet reshuffle, with four other ministers submitting resignations the day before.
Kuleba has been among the most vocal and prominent figures in the Ukrainian government since Russia invaded in 2022. As Ukraine’s top diplomat, he represented Kyiv on the world stage and helped garner international support for his country in the face of the Russian onslaught.
What’s with the shakeup? These cabinet changes come at a precarious moment in the war, with Ukrainian forces taking the fight inside Russia even as Kyiv continues to face difficult circumstances on the battlefield in eastern Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin, meanwhile, boasts of advances in the region.
But the shakeup doesn’t appear to signal that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky plans to take the country or its approach to the war with Russia in a drastically different direction. Instead, this is seemingly about Kyiv projecting a different, fresher image as the war drags on. Zelensky on Wednesday said the Ukrainian government needed “new energy, and that includes in diplomacy.”
The next foreign minister will probably join Zelensky for a trip to the US for the UN General Assembly in late September. Though no official announcement has been made, reports indicate that Kuleba’s deputy, Andrii Sybiha, is set to replace him.
Ukraine's Kursk invasion complicates Putin's war efforts
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Tabiano Castello in Italy.
How will the Ukraine Kursk incursion affect Putin's way of handling his war?
No question. It does complicate things for him quite considerably. First, they were trying to say, "Well, this is a quick thing. This will be over. The mighty Russian army is going to throw out the evil Ukrainians within a short period of time." That has clearly not been successful. So, now they're trying to say, "Well, this is not a big thing." They're trying to play it down. But whatever. It does complicate significantly the narrative that Putin has been trying to hand out, some say, or get anchored with the Russians that victory is going to come. It's only question of patience. He will have quite considerable difficulty. More on the political way. In the political respect than in the military with this operation.
What do we expect of Indian Prime Minister Modi's visit to Kyiv in the coming days?
I think it's going to be interesting to see. I would be interesting to see whether he hugs, embraces Zelensky in the way he did in a way that was quite remarkable with Putin when he was in Moscow a couple of weeks ago. And I think that sort of hugging of Putin did create some image problem for India in part of the word, notably in the West. And it will be interesting to see how far he goes in his visit to Kyiv in sort of counterbalancing the impression created by that hugging of Putin in the Kremlin.
Indian PM Narendra Modi: a “bleeding heart” in Moscow
India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi appeared to take a swipe at Vladimir Putin during their meeting in Moscow on Tuesday, even if only a subtle one.
Just moments after the Russian president welcomed him to the Kremlin, Modi lamented that his “heart bleeds” whenever children are killed in war.
A timeless statement, yes – but the timing itself was a statement: The day before, the two leaders embraced just hours after an apparent Russian airstrike destroyed a children’s cancer hospital in the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv.
Moscow has claimed, so far without evidence, that the hit came from a Ukrainian air defense system. The tragedy occurred as Moscow targeted cities across Ukraine with one of its biggest missile barrages in months.
The nonaligned line. Modi has, gently, criticized Putin’s invasion before, but the bigger picture remains the same: India has kept up good relations with Moscow throughout the war.
In part, that’s pragmatic. A rapidly growing Indian economy enjoys buying steeply discounted Russian oil. But it’s also ideological. Modi is keen to show that while he is glad to partner with the US over shared concerns about China, India – the most populous democracy and the fastest-growing major economy – has its own prerogatives.
Putin to visit North Korea and Vietnam
Russian state media reported Monday that President Vladimir Putin will travel to North Korea and Vietnam in the coming weeks as Moscow tries to build influence among middle powers in Asia.
This will be Putin’s first trip to Pyongyang in 24 years, and he’ll find the city much changed. In 2000, the massive unfinished Ryugyong Hotel loomed skeletally over Stalinist-era apartment blocks, in an almost-too-on-the-nose metaphor for the country’s paranoid and feeble state two years after the 1994-1998 mass famine. Putin was in town to officially reestablish relations with North Korea, which had ruptured following the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Today, the DPRK is no less totalitarian, but the economy can now support a facade of prosperity in Pyongyang — including cladding for that still-empty hotel, and some high-rises nearby to soften the landscape. It also now has nuclear weapons to protect itself from the US and artillery shells Russia needs in Ukraine, meaning Putin has to show up with something a little more high-tech in hand.
He’s previously pledged to help North Korea put spy satellites in orbit, which it accomplished for the first time last year. But a subsequent launch this May, which South Korean intelligence believes was aided by Russian technicians, exploded shortly after takeoff. Nonetheless, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un says he wants to launch three more spy satellites this year, and we have our eye out for any indication of where the cooperation might go from here.
The Vietnam leg is less juicy by comparison. Hanoi and Moscow have a tight military relationship stretching back to the early Cold War, but Vietnam has recently been courting better relations with the US to offset threats from China. We’re expecting a carefully choreographed visit with little that could rock the boat.
Ukraine’s new mobilization law takes effect
A new mobilization law came into force on Saturday as Ukraine struggles to counter a growing Russian offensive in the northeast part of the country. The legislation, passed in April, requires men aged 18-60 to carry their military registration documents with them at all times and present them upon request. Conscripts must update their address, contact information, and military records within 60 days through government institutions or a mobile application.
To grow the ranks and deter draft dodgers, President Volodymyr Zelensky also signed two bills allowing prisoners to join the army and hiking fines for evading conscription. The government will offer troops cash bonuses and money toward houses or cars. But critics warn the treasury can’t afford the proposed incentives and that businesses will be forced to close if the military siphons more workers.
One thing the law does not address is demobilization. Early drafts of the law proposed that troops serving for 36 months be demobilized and that those serving on the front line for more than six months be rotated to other positions. But Ukraine's military leadership successfully lobbied against those proposals, concerned that it would strip them of their most professional and experienced troops.
To counter charges of undermining soldier morale, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry says it is working on a separate demobilization bill. But it remains to be seen whether higher troop numbers will be enough to turn the tide for Ukraine.
How high school explains Putin’s reshuffle
One way to look at Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to replace long-serving Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu with career economist Andrey Belousov is this: Since the invasion of Ukraine, Putin’s nerds have performed better than his jocks.
The jocks: Right from the start, Russia’s generals and spies – poorly prepared, badly informed, and deeply corrupt – screwed up what was meant to be a short victorious war. Two years later, the locker room bully clique continues to grind, slowly and destructively, across Ukraine, but that’s largely because Russia’s manpower is virtually unlimited while the West’s support for Ukraine is not. Despite Secretary of State Antony Blinken’ssurprise visit to Kyiv today to tell President Volodymyr Zelensky military aid is "now on its way,” there's no doubt the recent slowdown in US support, thanks to months of congressional infighting, has exacerbated Ukraine’s challenges on the battlefield.
The nerds: The stars of math class, meanwhile – led by Central Bank Chief Elvira Nabiullina and Finance Minister Anton Siluanov – have done the seemingly impossible: They kept the Russian economy afloat despite crippling Western financial sanctions. They held the line as the “War Machine” became central to the economy.
Now Putin, settling in for a forever war against the West, wants to ensure it’s economically sustainable. His spokesman even warned of the danger of a “1980s” situation, when overspending on the quagmire in Afghanistan and the arms race with Washington helped to bring down the USSR.
To avoid a similar fate, Putin is now banking on a little nerd power at the barracks.
Hard Numbers: Ukraine’s bloody Easter Sunday, China on the dark side of the moon, Afghanistan loses last woman diplomat, Madonna’s massive show
3: On Sunday, Ukraine marked its third Orthodox Easter under Russian attack, as Moscow’s forces targeted villages in the East with a drone barrage that killed six people. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (of Jewish descent) asked his compatriots to be “united in one common prayer” on the steps of Kyiv’s St. Sophia Cathedral.
1,500: “Pink Floyd” 用中文怎么说? China launched a mission to the literal dark side of the moon on Friday to extract surface samples in the South Pole-Aitken Basin, a vast depression over 1,500 miles wide. It is the first of three unmanned lunar launches Beijing plans for this decade, culminating in an assessment of the feasibility of a permanent lunar base.
0: Afghanistan now has no female diplomats in its foreign ministry following the resignation of Zakia Wardak, who resigned after reportedly being detained in India on gold smuggling allegations. She was appointed in 2021, before the Taliban takeover,and denies the allegations.
1.6 million: Over 1.6 million people turned out to see Madonna play in a free open-air concert on Rio’s Copacabana Beach on Saturday night. And it wasn’t just Cariocas — the city’s airport handled over 170 additional flights to accommodate pop fans from all over the world.35: Panamanians elected José Raúl Mulino, the stand-in for former President Ricardo Martinelli, to be their next leader on Sunday, with 35% of the vote. The race had been in uncertain territory until Friday morning, when the Supreme Court decided to allow Mulino to run despite not having been made a candidate through a primary election process. Read more from GZERO here.
Ukraine tightens military conscription laws as Russia bombards energy infrastructure
Russia bombarded Ukraine’s energy infrastructure overnight Thursday, destroying Kyiv’s largest power plant and leaving thousands without power. Ukraine’s Air Force reported that it downed fewer than half of an estimated 42 missiles volleyed at the country, as it finds itself ill-prepared to fend off the Kremlin’s intensifying attacks on its infrastructure and energy supplies.
Volodymyr Zelensky is appealing to Western allies for more air defenses. On Tuesday, the US approved an emergency sale of $138 million worth of air defense equipment to Ukraine, but the $60 billion aid package remains stalled in Congress.
In another sign of growing urgency, the Ukrainian parliament approved a controversial mobilization law that narrows eligibility for military exemptions and introduces penalties for evaders. The law does not address how many soldiers will be drafted and whether those who have served since the start of the invasion, over two years ago, should be discharged. It comes after Zelensky lowered the minimum age for male military conscription from 27 to 25 earlier this month.
Zelensky has been reluctant to expand conscription out of fear of domestic backlash, but he is expected to sign the bill, which would go into effect a month later.
Ukraine needs fresh recruits to hold thinning frontlines, rotate exhausted troops off the battlefield, and deal with growing casualties and fresh Russian offensives along the eastern front.