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A Russian victory would end the global order, says Yuval Noah Harari
The Ukraine war remains the most important geopolitical conflict in the world, says bestselling author and historian Yuval Noah Harari.
In a wide-ranging conversation with Ian Bremmer filmed live at the 92nd Street Y in New York City, Harari says that if Russia wins in Ukraine, the global order as we’ve known it for decades is over. "The most fundamental rule was that you cannot just invade and conquer another country just because you're stronger. This is exactly what Putin is trying to do in Ukraine."
The conversation also touches on the potential ripple effects of Russia's actions, suggesting that a successful annexation could embolden other nations to follow suit, destabilizing global peace. Harari even entertains the notion that we might be in the early stages of a third World War, unrecognized in the current moment, much like the early years of World War II were not immediately identified as such. "If he gets away with it, we'll see more and more Putins all over the world” Harari says. "There is a scenario that we are already living in the midst of the third World War and we just don't know it."
Watch full episode: Yuval Noah Harari explains why the world isn't fair (but could be)
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week online and on US public television. Check local listings.
Two years in, there’s no end in sight for the war in Ukraine
It’s been two years since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, starting the deadliest conflict that Europe has seen in decades. And there are no signs that it is anywhere close to ending.
The numbers tell a grim story. By NATO’s best estimates, 70,000 Russians have died and 250,000 have been injured over the course of the war, comprising some 90% of Russia’s pre-war troops. Kyiv is highly secretive about battle losses, but its latest figures put the number of soldiers killed at 31,000 (almost certainly a significant undercount), with hundreds of thousands more injured. Meanwhile, Russia still occupies around a fifth of Ukrainian territory.
After a momentous 2022 where huge chunks of land changed hands, 2023 saw a fairly static line of control, with both sides failing to make decisive gains on the battlefield despite major losses of personnel and equipment. This year promises to look much like the last, with missile and drone strikes on each other’s homeland wreaking economic damage but continued fighting causing little meaningful change to the frontline as the conflict settles into a defensive struggle. Lower levels of Western military aid to Kyiv – especially from the United States – relative to 2022 and 2023 will hinder Ukraine’s ability to retake its land but not its ability to defend itself, despite Russia’s battlefield initiative and material advantage. Both governments’ ability to sustain the war over the coming year makes a cease-fire or negotiated settlement unlikely.
But we are at a turning point in the war’s trajectory. While the Ukrainians remain steadfast in their fight, America’s dysfunctional politics are making a victory for Ukraine look more elusive than ever. Everything now hinges on what happens in Washington in the next few days and weeks, where securing Congressional approval for Ukraine funding has become a much bigger political challenge than anyone expected. And the deeper we get into the presidential race (and the closer Donald Trump is to becoming the official Republican nominee), the less likely it is that Ukraine will receive any additional funding at all until after the November election.
Stalling US aid would put Ukraine’s defense at risk. US military support is vital to helping Ukrainian forces defend against Russian offensive operations and aerial attacks. It is also important for Ukrainian efforts to reconstitute their ability to launch future offensives. While failure to approve new funding would not completely cut Ukraine off from Western arms – it would still get weapons from European governments and from the US over the long run – diminished near-term delivery of artillery, air defense, and other items by the United States would severely limit its ability to maintain the frontline where it is for long, potentially setting the country on a path to defeat as soon as 2025. Where defeat means giving up more territory in Donetsk and possibly Kharkiv oblasts, weakened defenses against Russian missile and drone strikes against Ukrainian cities, and then being forced to accept a much more unfavorable cease-fire or settlement.
US pullback would increase the risk of escalation. Ukrainian leaders are likely to become more risk-acceptant in an environment in which Western governments are not delivering the military aid they need to sustain not just offensive but also defensive operations. That would mean a stepped-up campaign using drones, missiles, and covert operations to hit targets in Russia (including economically significant oil and grain export facilities) as well as Russian military positions in occupied Crimea, risking Russian retaliation. Ukraine’s ability to produce drones domestically means that it would still be able to conduct these kinds of attacks despite diminished Western support. For its part, Russia could see the decline in US aid as an opening to push its advantage, launching more aggressive offensive operations to capitalize on Ukraine’s weakened defenses.
Whether out of a sense of desperation or out of a sense of impunity, diminishing Western support for Kyiv would lead both sides to show less restraint and the conflict to escalate, raising the odds of unintended confrontation between Russia and NATO.
Diplomacy would remain as remote as ever. Opponents of additional US military support claim that cutting off aid to Kyiv would put pressure on President Volodymyr Zelensky to negotiate an end to the war – their stated aim. However, opinion polls in Ukraine show overwhelming support for a continuation of the war even if Western aid falls, with 92% of Ukrainians saying they would accept nothing short of a total Russian withdrawal from their territory including Crimea. Meanwhile, reports suggesting Russian interest in a cease-fire do not indicate any flexibility from President Vladimir Putin about the status of the territories under Russian occupation. Moscow’s insistence that Ukraine recognize those illegally annexed areas as sovereign Russian territory in exchange for peace is a non-starter for Kyiv, just as Kyiv’s insistence that Russia withdraw from all Ukrainian territory including Crimea is a non-starter for Moscow.
If Ukraine faces significant setbacks on the battlefield in the coming months due to reduced US aid, Ukrainian public opinion on territorial concessions could shift, and Zelensky’s calculations about talks may change accordingly. Knowing the Ukrainian people and their will to fight, I rate this as unlikely. But even if it came to pass, diplomacy would still require Russia to come to the table for constructive discussions – something that Putin will have little incentive to do as long as he has the military upper hand, Russia’s economy remains robust, Western support for Kyiv is waning, and Donald Trump has an even shot of winning the US presidential election. Russian dissident Alexei Navalny dying in a Siberian gulag earlier this month is a sign of Putin’s strength and confidence – not something that would happen if he were inclined to sue for peace anytime soon.
In short, cutting US aid to Ukraine wouldn’t bring an end to the war any closer. It would only make it easier for Russia to kill more Ukrainians – and embolden Putin to do the same to Moldovans, Latvians, and Poles in the future. Any suggestion to the contrary is wishful thinking at best, and Russian propaganda at worst.
Russia-Ukraine: Two Years of War
It's been two years since Russia's invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, and the war is still raging. GZERO looks back at the pivotal moments of the past 24 months.
The Latest:
Listen:
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Feb. 24, 2022: Russia launches “special military operation” in Ukraine
On Thursday, Feb. 24, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin launches a large-scale invasion of Ukraine, labeling it a "special military operation." The aim? The "demilitarization and denazification" of Ukraine, according to Putin, who warns of inevitable clashes between Russian and Ukrainian forces. Any bloodshed, he says, would be on Ukraine’s hands.
- Ian Bremmer: This is a turning point in the global order
- Russia-Ukraine crisis: What you need to know
Feb. 28, 2022: The ruble nosedives
Days after Russian troops invade eastern Ukraine, the country's currency plummets, shedding up to 30% of its value against the US dollar. This drastic decline follows allied sanctions, specifically targeting Russia’s central bank and major lenders. Such a sharp depreciation of the ruble has occurred only twice before: during the 1998 Russian financial crisis and again in late 2014.
March 2022: Putin = Common denominator
Putin Past the Point of No Return | Putin's Europe Problem | GZERO World with Ian Bremmerhttps://www.gzeromedia.com/gzero-world-with-ian-bremmer/putins-europe-problem
While NATO forces aren't directly engaged, the US and its allies support Ukraine through arms, financial aid, and stringent sanctions against Moscow. Vladimir Putin's approach, reminiscent of past-century warfare, falters in the modern era of global PR and social media dominance. The repercussions extend far beyond Ukraine, capturing the attention of countries like Finland, transitioning from neutrality to NATO hopeful. Former Finland PM Alexander Stubb, reflecting on Putin's stance and China's hesitance to fully support Russia, highlights the evolving geopolitical dynamics. On this award-winning episode of GZERO World, Ian Bremmer talks to Stubb, who once helped broker Russia's 2008 cease-fire with Georgia and believes Putin has backed himself into a corner but won't back down on Ukraine.
- Putin only understands power and force, says Finland’s former PM
- Civilians gear up: “This is not a suicide mission” – the Wolverines of Ukraine
April 2022: Russia retreats from Kyiv, Bucha massacre uncovered
Is Putin's war in Ukraine genocide?https://www.gzeromedia.com/by-ian-bremmer/is-putin-s-war-in-ukraine-genocide
As Ukrainian forces retake Kyiv and Russian troops begin retreating to eastern and southern Ukraine, gruesome images surface from Bucha, a Kyiv suburb, revealing that civilians – women, children, and elderly – lay dead in the streets. Ukrainian officials and independent sources share horrific accounts of rape, torture, and execution by Russian soldiers, and hundreds of victims are found in mass graves. Russia denies responsibility and instead points fingers at Ukraine.
- Is Putin's war in Ukraine a genocide?
- The price of Russian defeat
- Zelensky wants justice over Russian war crimes
- Russian military on the ropes
June 2022: Russia withdraws from Snake Island
Russia retreats from Snake Island, with the Kremlin calling it a "gesture of goodwill" to disprove the hindrance of Ukrainian food exports, but Ukrainians credit their missile strikes. The blockade disrupted Ukraine's monthly grain exports of five million metric tons, spiking global food prices and sparking famine fears in Africa. Zmiinyi Island, 22 miles off Ukraine's coast, offers strategic advantages, but its capture hindered Kyiv's defense of the southwestern coast and Odesa port. While a Ukrainian victory, naval weakness hampers food export resumption, underscoring Kremlin's Donbas focus.
August 2022: Fighting around Zaporizhzhia power plant raises fears
Ukrainian Nuclear Power Plant in Peril | US Energy Secretary Granholm | GZERO Worldhttps://www.gzeromedia.com/gzero-world-clips/us-en...
Artillery duels erupt at Europe’s largest nuclear power station in Zaporizhzhia, southern Ukraine, now under Russian occupation. Both sides accuse the other of instigating the conflict. The IAEA raises concerns over the potential for a nuclear catastrophe, as shelling severely damages radiation sensors near a spent fuel storage unit. President Volodymyr Zelensky condemns the situation as “Russian nuclear terror.”
Sept. 11, 2022: Ukraine pushes back, reclaims over a thousand square miles
On the 200th day of the war, the Ukrainian military achieves its most significant gains against Russia since the invasion began. President Volodymyr Zelensky declares the liberation of over 1,000 kilometers of territory, pledging to "de-occupy" completely.
Sept. 21, 2022: Russia calls up reservists
Russia calls up reservistshttps://www.gzeromedia.com/what-we-re-watching-iran-protests-spread-putin-mobilizes-ny-sues-trumps-china-faces-slow-growth
Vladimir Putin dramatically ups the ante and orders the partial mobilization of up to 300,000 reservists for the war in Ukraine. Ukrainian defiance persists, with Western leaders, including US President Joe Biden, reaffirming their commitment to pressure Putin's government and military. Meanwhile, Russia grapples with internal unrest, evident in protests and a surge of draft-age men fleeing the country. While Putin stops short of full mobilization, ongoing setbacks in the "special military operation" raise concerns about future escalations.
- The script for conscripts: Inside Putin’s (partial) mobilization
- QuickTake with Ian Bremmer: Putin cornered
- António Guterres: Ukraine war united NATO but further divided the world
Sept. 26, 2022: Who blew up Nord Stream?
Who blew up Nord Stream? Ian Bremmer
The controversial Nord Stream gas pipelines connecting Russia to Germany and Europe are sabotaged, leading to multiple investigations into whodunnit.
- Did someone blow up the Nord Stream pipelines?
- Another Baltic pipeline whodunnit
- Who blew up Nord Stream?
September 2022: Russia holds referenda in occupied parts of eastern Ukraine
Russian annexationshttps://www.gzeromedia.com/what-we-re-watching-russian-annexations-the-india-pakistan-us-tango
Putin’s sham referenda in four regions of Ukraine officially moves forward to annexations. Yet, with ongoing clashes, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson remain battlegrounds. Securing control amid Ukrainian resistance could provide Putin with a strategic land bridge from southeastern Ukraine to Crimea, annexed in 2014. While Russia holds Luhansk and Kherson, and portions of Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk, Ukrainian forces persist in gaining ground. The referenda offer Putin a pretext, framing Ukrainian/Western attacks as assaults on Russia. Amid a faltering war, Putin terms it an "anti-colonial movement." In response, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky seeks accelerated NATO accession.
Oct. 8, 2022: Kerch Bridge blast
Russia launches a series of airstrikes targeting major Ukrainian cities: Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa, and even Lviv, previously deemed a haven. The attacks, hitting civilian areas during rush hour, inflict considerable damage to infrastructure, causing power outages and driving civilians into bomb shelters. While the death toll remains unconfirmed, casualties are expected to be substantial. This military escalation follows Saturday's explosion on the Crimea-Russia Kerch bridge, which Putin attributes to Ukrainian "terrorists." The strikes were ordered before Putin's National Security Council meeting, suggesting retaliation planning. Though the Kremlin has yet to comment officially, Putin ally Ramzan Kadyrov expresses satisfaction, advocating for reprisals against Ukrainian infrastructure.
- Putin lashes out after Crimea bridge blast
- Russian revenge vs. Ukrainian resolve
- Following Ukraine’s Crimea bridge attack, expect Putin to escalate "until he collapses"
January 2023: US and Germany offer tanks
Ukraine tanks uphttps://www.gzeromedia.com/ukraine-tanks-up
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announces Germany's decision to send Leopard 2 battle tanks to Ukraine, following pressure from NATO countries led by Poland. Berlin initially resisted, concerned about antagonizing Russia and awaiting US action on supplying Abrams tanks. Two tank battalions, totaling roughly 80 Leopard 2 tanks, will be deployed to Ukraine, with training for Ukrainian soldiers commencing in Germany. However, US tank shipments may not arrive until spring, as the Ukrainian military lacks Abrams operation knowledge and maintenance supply lines and faces fuel consumption concerns.
- Ukraine tanks up
- Ukraine's killer dune buggies
- Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant at risk of disaster, says top nuclear watchdog
- Putin’s war crimes solidify West’s military support for Ukraine
- Russian unpredictability & Finland's border threat
February 2023: Biden visits Kyiv
Biden’s visit to Ukraine signals US commitment, but war gets tougher | Quick Take | GZERO Mediahttps://www.gzeromedia.com/quick-take/biden-visit-to-ukraine-signals-us-commitment-but-war-gets-tougher
President Biden makes a surprise trip to Kyiv, just before the first anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24. It's significant as the first visit by an American president since Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 and intervention in Southeast Ukraine. This underscores continued US commitment symbolically, boosts Ukrainian morale, and reassures NATO of America's unwavering prioritization of Ukraine, despite substantial aid and a year of conflict. The trip holds immense importance for diplomatic relations, emphasizing the enduring support for Ukraine amidst ongoing tensions with Russia.
June 8, 2023: Ukraine launches counteroffensive
Ukraine ups the antehttps://www.gzeromedia.com/ukraine-ups-the-ante
The New York Times reports that Ukraine's nearly two-month-old counteroffensive is ramping up in the southeast, per two anonymous Pentagon officials. Thousands of previously held-back reserves are now deploying to the front lines. Both Ukrainian and Russian reports corroborate this escalation. Whether Ukraine gains strategic ground or not marks a pivotal juncture in the war.
June 24, 2023: Prigozhin stages mutiny
Russia’s aborted coup, explainedhttps://www.gzeromedia.com/by-ian-bremmer/russias-aborted-coup-explained
Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin stages a failed mutiny against Vladimir Putin. Ian Bremmer predicts the move will be the beginning of the end of Prigozhin. According to Bremmer, Prigozhin, in the lead-up to his mutiny, had become increasingly erratic, indicative of his declining political influence. What's more, he directed fury at Russia’s Ministry of Defense, accusing them of sending thousands of soldiers to their deaths due to corruption, incompetence, and cowardice.
- Russia’s aborted coup, explained
- Former Russian intelligence officer: Prigozhin's threat to Putin is “ludicrous”
July 2023: Russia’s exit from the Black Sea Grain Deal
Russia's exit from Black Sea grain deal will drive up food prices | Europe In: 60https://www.gzeromedia.com/in-60-seconds/europe/russias-exit-from-black-sea-grain-deal-will-drive-up-food-prices
Russia announces its exit from the Black Sea grain deal, a move GZERO's Europe In :60 host and former Sweden PM Carl Bildt predicts would have severe consequences on global food prices. Continuous attacks on grain terminals near the Ukrainian-Romanian border aggravate the situation. Meanwhile, the progress of the Ukrainian counteroffensive slows down due to extensive Russian fortifications and mines. The Ukrainian army, largely composed of mobilized individuals with limited training, faces significant challenges.
Aug. 23, 2023: Prigozhin dies in plane crash
Wagner's Prigozhin dieshttps://www.gzeromedia.com/wagners-prigozhin-presu...
Russian state media reports a private aircraft crash outside Moscow, killing all 10 aboard, including Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Wagner Group warlord behind a failed mutiny against the Kremlin in June.
September 2023: Peace in Ukraine is world's priority, says UN chief António Guterres
November 2023: US govt avoids shutdown, cuts Ukraine funding
Shutdown averted, but deal contains no aid for Ukrainehttps://www.gzeromedia.com/gzero-north/shutdown-averted-but-deal-contains-no-aid-for-ukraine
Ukraine's funding struggle continues as a divided US House finally reached an agreement to avoid a government shutdown but notably did not include military aid for either Ukraine or Israel. Democrats had tried to lump aid for Israel - which received bipartisan support - together with that of Ukraine, which faced resistance from Republicans. The decision is a significant blow to Ukraine, whose somewhat successful resistance against the Russian offensive relied heavily on US funding. What's more, their hopes of getting assistance from the EU face threats from Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán—an ally of Vladimir Putin.
February 2024: Russia recaptures Avdiivka
Pro-Russia blogger commits suicide, Russia recaptures Avdiivkahttps://www.gzeromedia.com/news/hard-numbers/hard-numbers-pro-russia-blogger-commits-suicide-uk-nuclear-missile-test-fails-biden-slashes-student-debt-iran-gives-russia-missiles
In mid-February 2024, Russian forces in Ukraine scored their first major victory in months, taking the strategic town of Avdiivka. A pro-Russian blogger who reported that 16,000 Russian troops had died in the effort faced a huge backlash and committed suicide.
- What Ukraine needs after two years of war with Russia - GZERO Media ›
- What's the plan for Ukraine after two years of war? Ian Bremmer explains - GZERO Media ›
- Ukraine is still standing two years after Russian invasion - GZERO Media ›
- Two years of war in Ukraine: Power players at the Munich Security Conference weigh in - GZERO Media ›
- Greece's PM on NATO, Navalny, and the wake-up call to Europe - GZERO Media ›
- A Russian victory would end the global order, says Yuval Noah Harari - GZERO Media ›
Canada shows Kyiv the money
Defense officials say Ottawa will inject CA$30 million into a push to buy ammunition, working with Czechia, aka the Czech Republic, to get artillery shells into the hands of Ukrainian soldiers. Allies are being urged to step up since US funding lapsed – and in the wake of Ukraine’s withdrawal from Avdiivka amid heavy losses.
At the Munich Security Conference, as attendees absorbed news of the death of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, Denmark announced it would send all of its artillery to help the struggling Ukrainians and called on other countries to do more.
Republicans in the US Congress, under the influence of Donald Trump, meanwhile, have blocked aid, and rookie House Speaker Mike Johnsonhas failed to bring a Senate-passed $95-billion aid package for Ukraine and Israel up for a vote. Johnson is under threat from hardline Republicans who may try to oust him if he passes aid for Ukraine. But Democrats are considering taking steps to protect Johnson if he helps them get the package passed.
Unlike the US, Canada’s government has not wavered in its support for Ukraine, although the amounts of money are tiny in comparison. Defense Minister Bill Blair signed a memorandum of understanding with Czechia but has not yet revealed any details.
Canada is also facing intense pressure to boost its defense spending. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenbergsaid Tuesday that Canada needs to set a date to increase defense spending to 2% of GDP, NATO’s guideline for members. Canada spent just 1.38% of GDP on defense in 2023. Meanwhile, only 11 of NATO’s 33 members met the 2% guideline last year, but several European countries have been increasing their spending sparked by fears of Russian aggression.
Ukraine faces threat from Western flank
While visiting Buenos Aires on Sunday for the inauguration of Argentina’s new president Javier Milei, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was able to buttonhole Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban.
Cameras caught an unimpressed-looking Zelensky sharing his thoughts with a defensive-looking Orban. We don’t know what he said – Zelensky said later that it was a “frank” exchange – but we can guess that the Ukrainian was calling Orban out for acting on behalf of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is seeking to gain through politics what he has so far failed to gain on the battlefield: Ukraine’s submission.
Twenty months after Russian tanks crossed the border in a failed thunder run for Kyiv, the war is at a stalemate. Ukraine’s improbably successful resistance stopped an outright Russian victory, but a counteroffensive this year failed to make the hoped-for gains, and now Putin’s friends in Western capitals are seeking to capitalize on fatigue with the war to stop the Western arms that allow Ukraine to fight.
Orban, Putin’s best European ally, is threatening to block Ukraine’s accession to the European Union and is arguing against a crucial European aid package for Ukraine at a summit this week, although France’s Emmanuel Macron will try to get him onside. Meanwhile, Orban’s representatives in Washington are meeting with far-right Republicans who want to prevent the United States from approving $60 billion in military aid for Zelensky’s fighters.
Quid pro quo
Republicans are split on the question of aid to Ukraine but united in a desire to stop migrants from crossing into the United States, so President Joe Biden is trying to appease them by putting more resources into securing the southern border.
The White House is wrangling with Senate Republicans to seek a compromise, but the holidays are coming, and they need to make a deal before they all leave for the year on Friday.
“Biden is under tremendous pressure to approve an additional aid package,” says Clayton Allen, Eurasia Group director for the United States. Such a deal would likely help him with voters later, said Allen, since border security “has proven a perennial issue for his reelection chances.”
To stop the increasing number of migrants, Biden is reportedly offering to expel migrants without processing their asylum claims using Title 42, a pandemic-era measure that Donald Trump used to turn away migrants on public health grounds.
If GOP leaders in the Senate can make a deal with Biden before the holiday break, it may allow Speaker Mike Johnson to sell it to enough of his members to get it through the House. On Tuesday, he said that border security was the “hill to die on.” Johnston will likely not be able to convince Freedom Caucus members — the people who are meeting with Orban’s representatives — but he may be able to put together enough votes to get it passed, as he did to avert a government shutdown last month.
Money on the line
Biden’s job may be easier than it looks because congressmen will be motivated by a desire for economic activity in their districts, says Christopher Sands, director of the Wilson Center’s Canada Institute. “All these wars do have a tendency to benefit us in that sense because it's such a big military production that'll help a lot of congressional districts.”
When the horse trading in Washington is over, it seems likely that Ukraine will get money to keep fighting Putin, but the politics is not getting easier as the war grinds on.
“Whether Orban is the mastermind or Putin, we've seen over the last couple of years that the authoritarian countries … have been going for our great weaknesses in democracies, which is free debate,” says Sands. Spreading fake news or propaganda is “the best way to weaken the support for Ukraine.”
Canadian Conservatives change sides
Until recently, all Canadian parties shared a consensus on support for Ukraine. More than a million Canadians trace their roots to that country, so there are good electoral reasons to support Zelensky, but the Conservatives under Pierre Poilievre have quietly started voting against aid to Ukraine. In the run-up to the next general election, Poilievre wants to avoid losing any conservative support to the far-right People’s Party of Canada, which has always opposed helping Ukraine, like populists around the world.
“I think what he understands is that he has to ameliorate the right flank,” says Canadian pollster Nick Nanos. “He's doing the political calculus that if he can pick up three points out of the PPC, that could put him into majority territory.”
The Conservative votes in Canada can’t stop aid to Ukraine, but it is nonetheless a sign that Zelensky’s diplomatic challenges are getting tougher. If the Russians can win in Western capitals, and Ukraine is left to its fate on the battlefield without support from NATO countries, Putin will be able to conquer its neighbor, and the West will be weakened.
“A collapsing USA now obviously has very significant near-term military implications for Ukraine,” says Allen. “It cuts off supplies of artillery and air defense, which are essential to Ukraine's offensive and defensive capabilities.”
But it also raises questions about the durability of US security commitments and guarantees with American allies. “A failure to approve additional Ukraine aid now,” says Allen, “will diminish US influence and leverage in negotiations and interactions moving forward.”
Zelenksy has used skillful diplomacy and media savvy to build global support for his country’s struggle against Russian imperialism, but time looks to be on Putin’s side.
Zelensky heads to a changed Washington
Business trips don’t often involve $60 billion or the potential fate of a nation. Yet, that’s exactly what’s on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s mind as he arrives in Washington on Tuesday.
Zelensky will meet with President Joe Biden as well as with leaders of Congress, where a $60 billion additional aid package for Kyiv is mired in partisan wrangling over immigration. House Republicans want tighter US-Mexico border security as the price for greenlighting the White House’s request for more Ukraine aid.
Since the 2022 invasion, Washington has committed about $70 billion to Ukraine. Some $44 billion of that is military aid, making the US by far the largest single backer of Ukrainian troops. Zelensky warns that without more of that help, he can’t keep fighting Russia. Biden agrees – but, more to the point, so does Vladimir Putin.
The mood on this trip couldn’t be more different from Zelensky’s first post-invasion visit to DC when lawmakers showered him with praise and cash. But as the war has ground down into a bitter stalemate, US public support for Kyiv has softened. Ukraine’s failure to retake much territory after a much-anticipated US-backed counteroffensive has raised questions about the strategic aims of continuing to #ArmUkraine.
Supporters say: Abandoning the country would encourage authoritarian land-grabbers all over the world. Opponents say: Stop throwing good money after bad. It’s time to nudge Ukraine into a settlement with Putin.
Europe is watching too. The EU is not only wrangling over its own $50 billion aid package for Ukraine, but it’s also trying to decide whether to formally offer Kyiv a path to membership.
The upshot: This Tuesday is the most crucial single moment for Zelensky since the early days of the war.
Shutdown averted, but deal contains no aid for Ukraine
New Speaker Mike Johnson managed to wrangle enough votes to avoid a government shutdown late Tuesday, relying on 209 Democrats and 127 Republicans to pass a bill to allow the US government to keep functioning into 2024. The Senate approved the measure on Wednesday, sending it to President Joe Biden for his signature. Had the House not acted, the government would have run out of money at midnight on Friday.
Johnson, a Republican from Louisiana, has been speaker for less than a month. He took over after a convoluted internal struggle that followed the ouster of Kevin McCarthy by members of the far-right Freedom Caucus, who were pushing for the Republicans to shut down the government to force the Biden administration to spend less money. Johnson ended up presenting a similar stopgap bill to the one that Republicans could not swallow from McCarthy.
The agreement Tuesday takes the pressure off, but it will likely be a brief respite. The funding will run out for some programs — military construction, veterans’ affairs, transportation, housing, and the Energy Department — on Jan. 19, while other programs are funded until Feb. 2. The brinksmanship over the next round will begin again soon, and Republicans — who are pushing for spending cuts and tougher border security measures — are not likely to give way easily. Intense struggles within the GOP make it hard to predict what Congress will do after the Thanksgiving break.
The bill did not include military aid for Israel and Ukraine. Democrats have sought to link military aid for Israel – for which there is bipartisan support – to support for Ukraine, which a growing number of Republicans are likely to resist.
The continued success of Ukraine in resisting Russian aggression hinges on continued military support from the United States. In Europe, meanwhile, Hungarian leader Viktor Orbán has threatened to veto EU aid packages for Ukraine. So both sides of the Atlantic are seeing political struggles that may ultimately decide what happens on the ground in Ukraine.Biden & Xi set to agree on regulating military use of AI
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Will Biden and Xi come together to regulate military use of AI?
I think that's one of the areas that we are going to see a level of cooperation. The Chinese are concerned about, first, the Americans being ahead of them in AI, but secondly, about the fact that this could escalate and spiral into mutually assured destruction quickly, if there isn't a level of transparency. That's very different from the unwillingness of the Chinese to engage in high level military talks, for example, on South China Sea or on Taiwan recently. This is an area that I think will be constructive. I'm glad to see it.
Can the Qatari mediation secure a breakthrough for hostage release in Gaza?
Well, we've been hearing about this for weeks now and it's been imminent and then not happening. Imminent, Not happening. I do think that the level of pressure on Israel, on the Israeli government for not having secured the release of women, of children, I mean, we're talking about a couple of hundred plus civilian hostages living in the most unimaginably horrible environment in Gaza. And I do believe that a breakthrough is pretty likely. We're also going to find out that a lot of these hostages, of course, are already dead. But I'm hopeful and let's keep fingers crossed on that.
Has time run out for Ukraine's counteroffensive?
The much-vaunted counteroffensive, yet it looks like they're not going to be able to take much more territory at this point. And it's hard to imagine they're going to have the military capacity or the troop capacity to do anything else in the foreseeable future. And that means that de facto, the 18% of Ukraine's territory that Russia presently occupies, they're going to continue to occupy going forward. No one's going to accept a partition. No one is going to say that Russia legitimately owns that territory because it is Ukrainian territory. But the reality is unacceptable. And that is where we're going to be an uncomfortable position going forward.