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A Russian victory would end the global order, says Yuval Noah Harari
A Russian victory would end the global order, says Yuval Noah Harari | GZERO World

A Russian victory would end the global order, says Yuval Noah Harari

The Ukraine war remains the most important geopolitical conflict in the world, says bestselling author and historian Yuval Noah Harari.

In a wide-ranging conversation with Ian Bremmer filmed live at the 92nd Street Y in New York City, Harari says that if Russia wins in Ukraine, the global order as we’ve known it for decades is over. "The most fundamental rule was that you cannot just invade and conquer another country just because you're stronger. This is exactly what Putin is trying to do in Ukraine."

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A broken plate of a splitting a map of Ukraine.

Jess Frampton

Two years in, there’s no end in sight for the war in Ukraine

It’s been two years since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, starting the deadliest conflict that Europe has seen in decades. And there are no signs that it is anywhere close to ending.

The numbers tell a grim story. By NATO’s best estimates, 70,000 Russians have died and 250,000 have been injured over the course of the war, comprising some 90% of Russia’s pre-war troops. Kyiv is highly secretive about battle losses, but its latest figures put the number of soldiers killed at 31,000 (almost certainly a significant undercount), with hundreds of thousands more injured. Meanwhile, Russia still occupies around a fifth of Ukrainian territory.

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Russia-Ukraine: Two Years of War

It's been two years since Russia's invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, and the war is still raging. GZERO looks back at the pivotal moments of the past 24 months.

The Latest:

  • Ukraine is still standing two years after Russian invasion
  • Can Ukraine win the war?
  • What's the plan for Ukraine after two years of war? Ian Bremmer explains
  • Yes, Vladimir Putin is winning
  • Russia is winning? Winning what?
  • What Ukraine needs after two years of war with Russia
  • Russia’s last independent pollster explains how Putin does i

  • Listen:


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    Feb. 24, 2022: Russia launches “special military operation” in Ukraine

    War in Ukraine

    On Thursday, Feb. 24, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin launches a large-scale invasion of Ukraine, labeling it a "special military operation." The aim? The "demilitarization and denazification" of Ukraine, according to Putin, who warns of inevitable clashes between Russian and Ukrainian forces. Any bloodshed, he says, would be on Ukraine’s hands.

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    FILE PHOTO: Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy shakes hands with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, as they attend a joint press conference, in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada September 22, 2023.

    REUTERS/Blair Gable/File Photo

    Canada shows Kyiv the money

    Defense officials say Ottawa will inject CA$30 million into a push to buy ammunition, working with Czechia, aka the Czech Republic, to get artillery shells into the hands of Ukrainian soldiers. Allies are being urged to step up since US funding lapsed – and in the wake of Ukraine’s withdrawal from Avdiivka amid heavy losses.

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    Volodymyr Zelensky

    Annie Gugliotta

    Ukraine faces threat from Western flank

    While visiting Buenos Aires on Sunday for the inauguration of Argentina’s new president Javier Milei, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was able to buttonhole Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban.

    Cameras caught an unimpressed-looking Zelensky sharing his thoughts with a defensive-looking Orban. We don’t know what he said – Zelensky said later that it was a “frank” exchange – but we can guess that the Ukrainian was calling Orban out for acting on behalf of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is seeking to gain through politics what he has so far failed to gain on the battlefield: Ukraine’s submission.

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    President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky seen during the ceremony of raising the State Flag of Ukraine at the military airfield in Vasylkiv, Kyiv region.

    Mykhaylo Palinchak / SOPA Images/Sipa USA)

    Zelensky heads to a changed Washington

    Business trips don’t often involve $60 billion or the potential fate of a nation. Yet, that’s exactly what’s on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s mind as he arrives in Washington on Tuesday.

    Zelensky will meet with President Joe Biden as well as with leaders of Congress, where a $60 billion additional aid package for Kyiv is mired in partisan wrangling over immigration. House Republicans want tighter US-Mexico border security as the price for greenlighting the White House’s request for more Ukraine aid.

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    House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-LA, gives a press conference in the Capitol on Tuesday, Nov. 14, 2023, after leading a vote to avoid a government shutdown.

    IMAGO/MediaPunch via Reuters Connect

    Shutdown averted, but deal contains no aid for Ukraine

    New Speaker Mike Johnson managed to wrangle enough votes to avoid a government shutdown late Tuesday, relying on 209 Democrats and 127 Republicans to pass a bill to allow the US government to keep functioning into 2024. The Senate approved the measure on Wednesday, sending it to President Joe Biden for his signature. Had the House not acted, the government would have run out of money at midnight on Friday.

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    Biden & Xi set to agree on regulating military use of AI
    AI military regulation: Possible Biden-XI collaboration? | World In: 60 | GZERO Media

    Biden & Xi set to agree on regulating military use of AI

    Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.

    Will Biden and Xi come together to regulate military use of AI?

    I think that's one of the areas that we are going to see a level of cooperation. The Chinese are concerned about, first, the Americans being ahead of them in AI, but secondly, about the fact that this could escalate and spiral into mutually assured destruction quickly, if there isn't a level of transparency. That's very different from the unwillingness of the Chinese to engage in high level military talks, for example, on South China Sea or on Taiwan recently. This is an area that I think will be constructive. I'm glad to see it.

    Can the Qatari mediation secure a breakthrough for hostage release in Gaza?

    Well, we've been hearing about this for weeks now and it's been imminent and then not happening. Imminent, Not happening. I do think that the level of pressure on Israel, on the Israeli government for not having secured the release of women, of children, I mean, we're talking about a couple of hundred plus civilian hostages living in the most unimaginably horrible environment in Gaza. And I do believe that a breakthrough is pretty likely. We're also going to find out that a lot of these hostages, of course, are already dead. But I'm hopeful and let's keep fingers crossed on that.

    Has time run out for Ukraine's counteroffensive?

    The much-vaunted counteroffensive, yet it looks like they're not going to be able to take much more territory at this point. And it's hard to imagine they're going to have the military capacity or the troop capacity to do anything else in the foreseeable future. And that means that de facto, the 18% of Ukraine's territory that Russia presently occupies, they're going to continue to occupy going forward. No one's going to accept a partition. No one is going to say that Russia legitimately owns that territory because it is Ukrainian territory. But the reality is unacceptable. And that is where we're going to be an uncomfortable position going forward.

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