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Populism and partition? Europe's bleak forecast for the year ahead
GZERO’s Tony Maciulis joins Mujtaba Rahman, Eurasia Group's Managing Director for Europe, on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference to discuss the pressing political and economic situation in Europe. Rahman looks ahead to the EU Parliament's upcoming elections, highlighting concerns over populist party performance. “[Populists] will certainly be better represented” Rahman tells Maciulis, “but that being said, the impacts on policy will be marginal at best.”
Rahman also delves into Europe’s economic challenges, citing bleak growth forecasts and Germany's fiscal constraints. “The overall picture is an economy really in the doldrums, not performing…basically flat." Discussing Ukraine, Rahman underscores the risk of partition and stresses the importance of Western integration for Ukraine's ultimate failure or success against Russia. Rahman also raises concerns over the potential impact of a Trump presidency on transatlantic relations. “Is Trump signaling an invitation to Russia and others to probe and to test? That's really where the concern lies."
Join Ian Bremmer and a panel of experts this Saturday, February 17, at 12 pm ET/9 am PT/6 pm CET for our Global Stage discussion at the Munich Security Conference: Protecting Elections in the Ageof AI.
Keep up with GZERO's Global Stage coverage of MSC 2024 for more.
Podcast: Trouble ahead: The top global risks of 2024
Listen: In a special edition of the GZERO podcast, we're diving into our expectations for the topsy-turvy year ahead. The war in Ukraine is heading into a stalemate and possible partition. Israel's invasion of Gaza has amplified region-wide tensions that threaten to spill over into an even wider, even more disastrous, even ghastlier conflict. And in the United States, the presidential election threatens to rip apart the feeble tendrils holding together American democracy.
All those trends and more topped Eurasia Group's annual Top Risks project for 2024, which takes the view from 30,000 feet to summarize the most dangerous and looming unknowns in the coming year. Everything from out-of-control AI to China's slow-rolling economy made this year's list.
GZERO Publisher Evan Solomon sat down with Eurasia Group Founder and President Ian Bremmer and Chairman Cliff Kupchan to work through their list of Top Risks for 2024 alongside Susan Glasser, staff writer at The New Yorker and co-author of "The Divider: Trump in the White House, 2017-2021"; Zeid Ra'ad Al Hussein, CEO & President of the International Peace Institute and former United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights; and Marietje Schaake, International Policy Fellow, Stanford Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence. The big throughline this year? Events spiral out of control even against the wishes of major players. Whether it's possible escalation between Israel and Iranian proxies, Chinese retaliation to the result of the Taiwanese election, or central banks finding themselves squeezed into a corner by persistent inflation, the sheer number of moving parts presents a risk in and of itself.
Take a deep dive with the panel in our full discussion, recorded live on January 8.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.
A world of conflict: The top risks of 2024
2024 is shaping up to be a turbulent year. The war in Ukraine is heading into a stalemate that puts the country on the road to partition. Israel's invasion of Gaza risks expanding to a region-wide war. And in the United States, the presidential election is pitting a divided country against itself with unprecedented risks for its democracy. Throw in AI growing faster than governments can keep up, China's rumbly grumbly economy, and El Nino weather, and you're starting to get the picture.
All those trends and more made it onto Eurasia Group's annual Top Risk project for 2024. As a political risk consultancy, Eurasia Group strives to keep clients informed of the global affairs that will impact their interests and bottom lines. The Top Risks project takes the view from 30,000 feet every year, summarizing the biggest and most dangerous unknowns that will affect everyone, political junkie or not.
GZERO Publisher Evan Solomon sat down with Eurasia Group Founder and President Ian Bremmer and Chairman Cliff Kupchan to work through their list of Top Risks for 2024 alongside Susan Glasser, staff writer at The New Yorker and co-author of "The Divider: Trump in the White House, 2017-2021"; Zeid Ra'ad Al Hussein, CEO & President of the International Peace Institute and former United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights; and Marietje Schaake, International Policy Fellow, Stanford Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence. The big throughline this year? Events spiral out of control even against the wishes of major players. Whether it's possible escalation between Israel and Iranian proxies, Chinese retaliation to the result of the Taiwanese election, or central banks finding themselves squeezed into a corner by persistent inflation, the sheer number of moving parts presents a risk in and of itself.
Take a deep dive with the panel in our full discussion, livestreamed on Jan. 8.
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- Top Risks 2023: A rogue Russia and autocrats threatening the world ›
- Eurasia Group’s Top Global Risks 2024 ›
- 2024's top global risks: The trifecta of wars threatening global peace - GZERO Media ›
- What would a second Trump term mean? Think Jurassic Park - GZERO Media ›
- Trump's immunity claim: US democracy in crisis - GZERO Media ›
- Pakistan-Iran attacks: Another Middle East conflict heats up - GZERO Media ›
- AI regulation means adapting old laws for new tech: Marietje Schaake - GZERO Media ›
- 2024 is the ‘Voldemort’ of election years, says Ian Bremmer - GZERO Media ›
- Podcast: Trouble ahead: The top global risks of 2024 - GZERO Media ›
Hold us accountable: Our biggest calls for 2023
Every year, Eurasia Group releases its Top 10 geopolitical risks for the year ahead. You’ll see the 2024 edition next Monday. But an honest analyst looks back at past forecasts to see (and acknowledge) what he got right and wrong, and I’m going to do that here and now.
Here’s the 2023 full report. To remind you, our Top 10 risks for 2023 were:
- Rogue Russia
- Maximum Xi
- Weapons of Mass Disruption
- Inflation shockwaves
- Iran in a corner
- Energy crunch
- Arrested global development
- Divided States of America
- TikTok boom
- Water stress
Let’s take these one at a time …
1. Rogue Russia
Our top risk last year was that the war between Russia and Ukraine would be no closer to resolution and that Russia would be on track to become the world’s most dangerous rogue state.
Check and check.
Another year of brutal fighting brought hundreds of thousands of casualties – and barely budged the war’s frontlines. Russia, still led by a president considered a war criminal in the West, now faces even more sanctions, and it has therefore drawn closer to Iran and North Korea to procure much-needed military supplies from both.
Russia has also picked up the pace of cyberattacks on Ukrainian targets and continues to target cities across the country with airstrikes. Putin has kept Russia’s asymmetrical attacks incremental to avoid escalation and exacerbating divisions in the West, but Russian disinformation attacks are picking up in support of Kremlin-friendly politicians and political parties inside NATO countries.
For 2024, Putin will have new options. More on that next week.
2. Maximum Xi
This call fared well too. We expected Xi Jinping’s consolidation of political power to create big economic and policy challenges through increasingly arbitrary and capricious central decision-making. We saw that most dramatically early in 2023 when a sudden U-turn from the world’s tightest zero-COVID policies produced a bad hangover for the Chinese economy.
Making matters worse, the expected economic bounce-back hasn’t materialized, and the unpredictability of government decision-making led to growing capital flight and a sharp turnaround in foreign direct investment, weakening the economy further.
In fairness, Xi Jinping responded to the economic weakness later in the year with a friendlier and more open foreign policy than we feared. Relations with the United States and Europe have been far better managed in recent months.
Do we expect that trend to last in 2024? We’ll tell you much more about that next week too.
3. Weapons of Mass Disruption
Here’s where I think we were furthest ahead of the curve. A year ago, very, very few political leaders were actively thinking about the disruptive power of artificial intelligence. Now, the hopes and fears are front and center in every region of the world – but especially for decision-makers in America, China, and Europe. The UN is on the case now too.
We learned this year that new AI tools represent a unique technological breakthrough with implications for every sector of the economy. They’re already driving a new phase of globalization. But they’re also creating serious risks because AI will enable disinformation on a massive scale, fuel public mistrust in governing institutions, and empower demagogues and autocrats in both politics and the private sector. More on that next week too.
4. Inflation shockwaves
Here our forecast mainly missed the mark. We expected that inflation at levels not seen in generations would lead to a restrictive policy stance by major central banks, reducing global demand and causing financial stress and social and political instability. We were thinking mainly of countries already under pressure, but we considered the United States vulnerable too.
The US did experience a banking crisis of confidence following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic in 2023, but stronger-than-expected growth and continued low unemployment helped contain the fallout.
The global impact was less than we expected. Yes, China underperformed, but Europe absorbed the shocks created by the transition away from imports of Russian energy, and overall US performance stuck close to the “Goldilocks” scenario of slow economic cooling while avoiding recession. The risk of a major financial crisis was avoided.
With hindsight, inflation deserved to be on the list, but not at #4.
5. Iran in a corner
This one cut both ways in 2023. On the one hand, as we expected, there was no breakthrough with the Biden administration to restore the Iran nuclear deal, and that led Tehran to step up uranium enrichment and stockpiling. It also upped its military cooperation with the Kremlin, particularly with drone transfers that boosted Russia on the battlefield in Ukraine.
We also finished the year with serious concerns about an expansion of the regional war between Israel and Hamas, a conflict in which Iran would be a key player. Their various proxies in the region were already stepping up attacks on Israel and US forces in the region as 2023 came to an end.
But the positive surprise was a breakthrough we didn’t foresee — brokered by China — between Iran and Saudi Arabia. That diplomatic opening has facilitated better economic relations, and following the outbreak of war, leaders of the two countries have been in regular communication, helping to stabilize the region for now.
6. Energy crunch
This was the biggest miss in our 2023 top risks report. We forecast that supply-limiting geopolitical challenges coupled with higher global energy demand would push oil prices beyond $100 a barrel by the end of the year. But there was no energy crunch in 2023 because the wars and the best efforts of OPEC+ to bolster prices couldn’t outweigh reduced demand from sluggish economic growth in China or a dramatic expansion of US oil production despite its commitment to a faster and more expansive energy transition. Oil topped out just under $95 and quickly backed down. Despite the entirely unexpected risks in the Middle East, the price has lately bounced between $75-$80 per barrel.
7. Arrested global development
Though the pandemic is over, human development indicators overall continue to suffer, thanks to the Russia-Ukraine war, global inflation, climate change, the Israel-Hamas war, and a number of other military coups and conflicts in places like Haiti, Sudan, Ethiopia, and Armenia-Azerbaijan that receive very little attention from Western media.
The result is lower levels of economic and political security for most of the world’s population. This should have come higher on our list.
8. Divided States of America
Given the structural political dysfunction (ask former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and the parade of his hapless would-be replacements) and the continued erosion of public confidence in US political institutions, this deserved to be on the list. Given the trajectory, we should have had it a little higher.
The 2024 election season is now in full swing, and in many ways, it is more problematic than in 2020. The international impact has so far been limited, and other governments are only just starting to grapple with the post-November uncertainties in US policymaking. More on that next week.
9. TikTok boom
Gen Z certainly became a bigger player in 2023, and not just on climate or issues of equality and identity politics. The Israel-Hamas war has created early challenges for the Biden reelection campaign, with both support for Palestinians and anger at the Israeli government becoming more intense as 2024 begins.
10. Water Stress
Water stress became more of an issue in 2023. Record rains made a big positive difference in the United States, facilitating a political deal for water-sharing in western US states and giving farmers a medium-term lease on life.
But other water-stressed parts of the world have experienced more pain. Northern Mexico remains in serious trouble. Agriculture and overall fiscal strain across Europe will require new political thinking. Sub-Saharan Africa now faces more starvation, especially in the Sahel and the Horn of Africa, adding to forced migration trends. Too many governments are focused only on crises, leaving longer-term plans for new institutions capable of marshaling long-term resources on the drawing board.
So, that’s my look back at 2023. Beginning next Monday, you’ll be reading much more about our expectations for a historically turbulent 2024.
US-China tech tensions: the impact on the global digital landscape
As the digital world continues to grow and evolve, there still exists a digital divide between the US and China. Alexis Serfaty, director of geotechnology at Eurasia Group, in a GZERO livestream presented by Visa, says that has long as US-China relations continue to be involved in a “tech cold war,” other countries, especially in developed regions, may find themselves compelled to take sides when it comes to adopting new technology infrastructure and standards. Global data divergencies and disparities in regulation of data would eventually fall on to the consumer, as their own experiences and standards would diverge, says Serfaty.
Serfaty goes on to say this alignment with either the US or China could also impact tech-related supply chains and global partnerships. An example lies in Europe, where despite some nations still utilizing Huawei equipment in their 5G networks, the European Union and several member states are progressively banning Chinese-made equipment. In parallel, the United States is poised not only to enhance its lead over China in advanced technologies but also to maintain that lead indefinitely.
The geopolitical tensions between the US and China in shaping the future of digitization is posing challenges and opportunities for nations striving to navigate this evolving digital landscape, highlights Serfaty.
To hear more about the challenges and opportunities that nation-states face when it comes to digitization, and how it could shape a more inclusive and resilient future, watch the full livestream here:
What Ukraine's digital revolution teaches the world
The digitalization divide: opportunities and challenges in emerging markets
In GZERO’s livestream event presented by Visa, a panel of geotech experts delved into the pivotal role of digitalization in shaping the global economy. One striking revelation emerged: Nearly three-fourths of all new value created by the end of this decade will be rooted in digitalization and digitally enabled business models. This underscores the seismic shift toward a digital-first world. While the prospects of this digital revolution are promising, Alexis Serfaty, director of geotechnology at Eurasia Group, highlighted a stark reality: Over 2.5 billion people still lack access to the Internet, effectively excluding them from the digital economy.
This digital divide poses a substantial risk as the world becomes increasingly digitized. As digital businesses flourish, there is concern that economic disparities could worsen, potentially leading to social instability in some regions.
To learn more about the challenges and opportunities that nation-states face when it comes to digitization, and how it could shape a more inclusive and resilient future, watch the full livestream conversation:
What Ukraine's digital revolution teaches the world
What Ukraine's digital revolution teaches the world
The threat of the Russian bear has been putting its neighbors on edge for years, and while plenty has been spent on beefing up their militaries, there’s now a whole other line of defense: digitization. Kyiv has harnessed its digital technology to provide government services to a whopping 19 million Ukrainians, despite daily bombings and devastation.
How has digitization helped Ukraine navigate first a pandemic and now a war? What lessons can be learned by other countries? GZERO asked geotech experts in a livestream event, presented by Visa, about the challenges and opportunities that nation-states face when it comes to digitization, and how it could shape a more inclusive and resilient future. The event was moderated by Goodpods' JJ Ramberg. Watch the full discussion above.
In 2020, Ukraine launched Diia, a mobile application that connects Ukrainians to more than 120 government services – from digital driver’s licenses to business filings to tax payments, says Mohamed Abdel-Kader, who helms the Innovation, Technology, and Research Hub at USAID. He and his teams help countries adopt new technological innovations in effective ways. Since the war, the app – also forged in partnership with UK Aid, Eurasia Foundation, and private sector partners – has also helped address wartime needs. For example, it has helped Ukrainians claim benefits for war-related property damage, and, at times, has been used to broadcast news and video when other networks are down. It has also helped with Ukraine’s mobilization and enabled the reporting of Russian troop sightings.
Unsurprisingly, it was another former Soviet republic, Estonia, that emerged as a pioneer in digitization back in the 2000s. Being so close to that Russian bear – it’s just a three-hour drive from St. Petersburg to the Estonian border town of Narva – helped focus the digital mind. The country was already a digital leader, but in 2007, Estonia withstood a month-long cyberattack that crippled its government systems and digital infrastructure. There was speculation of Russian involvement, but it was a “blessing in disguise,” says Carmen Raal, a digital transformation adviser at e-Estonia, the country’s electronic government services. This is because it forced the country to focus on cybersecurity before it was of critical importance to private and public sectors. The resulting innovations, she adds, have made Estonia a world leader in cyber security.
Today, Estonia offers 99.99% of its services online, Raal says, including universal online banking solutions and super-quick business setups. It takes “less than three hours to establish a company and, of course, it can be done fully online,” she adds.
What’s more, Estonia offers something called e-Residency, enabling individuals from anywhere in the world to apply online for a digital identity with which they can establish businesses in Estonia. “We have over 100,000 e-residents, and they have established over 27,000 Estonian companies,” Raal texted me after the event.
When it comes to digitization, both Ukraine and Estonia offer models of early investment, evolution, responses to security crises, and government-citizen relations, while the Estonian services reflect how governments can help residents (near and far) embrace economic opportunity. But globally, there remains plenty of work to ensure access, equality, and trust.
Digitization, after all, is great for those in the game, but as the rich get richer, governments need to ensure everyone has access. Last year, 60% of global GDP was generated by digitally enabled businesses, and in the last five years, the world has added two billion new internet users.
As the trend of digitalizing continues, with technology transforming businesses and work, says Eurasia Group's Geotechnology Director Alexis Serfaty, “it’s absolutely going to create new opportunities and new wealth, especially, I think, in emerging markets with younger populations and with more robust digital public infrastructure." In other words, there has been record growth in access, but there are still 2.5 billion people worldwide who are not online, and better systems and expanded access could translate into exponential growth – if done well.
Expanding trust in digital systems is also essential – only 62% of those GZERO surveyed before the livestream said they had faith in tech companies protecting their data.
Challenges of building secure public infrastructure that expands participation in inclusive ways, says Priya Vora, CEO of Digital Impact Alliance, are universal, and there’s a lot more work to be done. “I don’t think any country has figured it out yet,” she says.
Digital accessibility and digitization of services, along with digital skills, government oversight, and user trust need to grow in tandem to foster greater economic growth.
Hitting the right balance of government oversight will be key to getting this all right, says Rajiv Garodia, Visa’s global head of government solutions, who works with governments around the globe on digitization. He calls for a sound economic model and infrastructures designed with operational resilience, along with clear roles and responsibilities laid out for both the public and private sectors.
Global crises, like the ongoing war in Ukraine, also present opportunities for innovation and growth. Despite its current plight, Kyiv is making strides in a key sector that’s only becoming more important.
Watch the video above to hear the experts discuss the power of digitization – both amid war and for public and private sector growth.
Episode 9: What's next in 2023?
Listen: "We are coming out of a period of uncertainty," says David Bailin, Chief Investment Officer at Citi Global Wealth. "We've all been thinking it would go much faster than it has, but in the event we get to a more normal economy in 2024, given how vastly impactful COVID was, I think that that's a pretty fast outcome."
In the latest episode of Living Beyond Borders, a podcast produced in partnership between GZERO and Citi Global Wealth Investments, Bailin is joined by Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer to discuss what's happened so far on the economic and political stage, and what we might look forward to in the back half of the year and into 2024.
From the ongoing conflict with Russia, to interest rates and government regulation, to tensions with China, Bailin and Bremmer talk through the biggest risks and opportunities they see in the next six months. They also discuss the rapid rise of artificial intelligence, political polarization, and more.
This episode is moderated by Shari Friedman, Eurasia Group’s Managing Director of Climate and Sustainability.
Shari Friedman
Managing Director of Climate and Sustainability, Eurasia Group
David Bailin
Chief Investment Officer, Citi Global Wealth
Ian Bremmer
President, Eurasia Group and GZERO Media