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Populism and partition? Europe's bleak forecast for the year ahead
Populism and partition? Europe's bleak forecast for the year ahead | Mujtaba Rahman | Global Stage

Populism and partition? Europe's bleak forecast for the year ahead

GZERO’s Tony Maciulis joins Mujtaba Rahman, Eurasia Group's Managing Director for Europe, on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference to discuss the pressing political and economic situation in Europe. Rahman looks ahead to the EU Parliament's upcoming elections, highlighting concerns over populist party performance. “[Populists] will certainly be better represented” Rahman tells Maciulis, “but that being said, the impacts on policy will be marginal at best.”

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Podcast: Trouble ahead: The top global risks of 2024

Listen: In a special edition of the GZERO podcast, we're diving into our expectations for the topsy-turvy year ahead. The war in Ukraine is heading into a stalemate and possible partition. Israel's invasion of Gaza has amplified region-wide tensions that threaten to spill over into an even wider, even more disastrous, even ghastlier conflict. And in the United States, the presidential election threatens to rip apart the feeble tendrils holding together American democracy.

All those trends and more topped Eurasia Group's annual Top Risks project for 2024, which takes the view from 30,000 feet to summarize the most dangerous and looming unknowns in the coming year. Everything from out-of-control AI to China's slow-rolling economy made this year's list.

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A world of conflict: The top risks of 2024
Top Risks 2024 with Ian Bremmer, Cliff Kupchan, Zeid Ra'ad Al Hussein, and Marietje Schaake

A world of conflict: The top risks of 2024

2024 is shaping up to be a turbulent year. The war in Ukraine is heading into a stalemate that puts the country on the road to partition. Israel's invasion of Gaza risks expanding to a region-wide war. And in the United States, the presidential election is pitting a divided country against itself with unprecedented risks for its democracy. Throw in AI growing faster than governments can keep up, China's rumbly grumbly economy, and El Nino weather, and you're starting to get the picture.

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Annie Gugliotta

Hold us accountable: Our biggest calls for 2023

Every year, Eurasia Group releases its Top 10 geopolitical risks for the year ahead. You’ll see the 2024 edition next Monday. But an honest analyst looks back at past forecasts to see (and acknowledge) what he got right and wrong, and I’m going to do that here and now.

Here’s the 2023 full report. To remind you, our Top 10 risks for 2023 were:

  1. Rogue Russia
  2. Maximum Xi
  3. Weapons of Mass Disruption
  4. Inflation shockwaves
  5. Iran in a corner
  6. Energy crunch
  7. Arrested global development
  8. Divided States of America
  9. TikTok boom
  10. Water stress

Let’s take these one at a time …

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US-China tech tensions: the impact on the global digital landscape
US-China tech tensions: the impact on the global digital landscape | Digital Nations | GZERO Media

US-China tech tensions: the impact on the global digital landscape

As the digital world continues to grow and evolve, there still exists a digital divide between the US and China. Alexis Serfaty, director of geotechnology at Eurasia Group, in a GZERO livestream presented by Visa, says that has long as US-China relations continue to be involved in a “tech cold war,” other countries, especially in developed regions, may find themselves compelled to take sides when it comes to adopting new technology infrastructure and standards. Global data divergencies and disparities in regulation of data would eventually fall on to the consumer, as their own experiences and standards would diverge, says Serfaty.

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The digitalization divide: opportunities and challenges in emerging markets
The digitalization divide in emerging markets | Digital Nations | GZERO Media

The digitalization divide: opportunities and challenges in emerging markets

In GZERO’s livestream event presented by Visa, a panel of geotech experts delved into the pivotal role of digitalization in shaping the global economy. One striking revelation emerged: Nearly three-fourths of all new value created by the end of this decade will be rooted in digitalization and digitally enabled business models. This underscores the seismic shift toward a digital-first world. While the prospects of this digital revolution are promising, Alexis Serfaty, director of geotechnology at Eurasia Group, highlighted a stark reality: Over 2.5 billion people still lack access to the Internet, effectively excluding them from the digital economy.

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What Ukraine's digital revolution teaches the world
What Ukraine's digital revolution teaches the world | GZERO Media

What Ukraine's digital revolution teaches the world

The threat of the Russian bear has been putting its neighbors on edge for years, and while plenty has been spent on beefing up their militaries, there’s now a whole other line of defense: digitization. Kyiv has harnessed its digital technology to provide government services to a whopping 19 million Ukrainians, despite daily bombings and devastation.

How has digitization helped Ukraine navigate first a pandemic and now a war? What lessons can be learned by other countries? GZERO asked geotech experts in a livestream event, presented by Visa, about the challenges and opportunities that nation-states face when it comes to digitization, and how it could shape a more inclusive and resilient future. The event was moderated by Goodpods' JJ Ramberg. Watch the full discussion above.

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Episode 9: What's next in 2023?

Transcript

Listen: "We are coming out of a period of uncertainty," says David Bailin, Chief Investment Officer at Citi Global Wealth. "We've all been thinking it would go much faster than it has, but in the event we get to a more normal economy in 2024, given how vastly impactful COVID was, I think that that's a pretty fast outcome."

In the latest episode of Living Beyond Borders, a podcast produced in partnership between GZERO and Citi Global Wealth Investments, Bailin is joined by Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer to discuss what's happened so far on the economic and political stage, and what we might look forward to in the back half of the year and into 2024.

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