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Live on Jan. 6: the Top Risks of 2025
What will be the #1 concern for the year ahead? Join us January 6 at 12 pm ET for a livestream with Ian Bremmer and global experts to discuss the Top Risks of 2025 report from Eurasia Group. The much-anticipated annual forecast of the biggest geopolitical risks to watch in 2025 will be released that morning. Evan Solomon, GZERO Media's publisher, will moderate the conversation with Ian Bremmer and Cliff Kupchan of Eurasia Group, along with special guests.
Watch live at https://www.gzeromedia.com/toprisks
The Top Risks of 2025 with Ian Bremmer & Eurasia Group
Monday, January 6, 2025 | 12:00 PM ET | https://www.gzeromedia.com/toprisks
Sign up for GZERO's newsletters to get a reminder about this and other GZERO events.
Defining Kamala Harris at DNC 2024
From Chicago's United Center on the final night of the Democratic National Convention, Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group's head of research and managing director for the firm's coverage of United States political and policy developments, recaps the key takeaways from the DNC.
We're here in Chicago wrapping up the Democratic National Convention for 2024. You can see the balloons are falling behind us, and the benediction is going on as folks are starting to file out of the convention hall into what I think are going to be long lines to get home.
So a couple of key themes that jumped out over the four days of the convention. One was, of course, to introduce and define Kamala Harris, and what they sort of did was embrace her record as a prosecutor, giving her this persona as a loving family member, but a tough, no-nonsense person that you don't want to mess with. And that was a theme that was repeated over and over again in testimonials from her family and friends, and also a message pretty directly given by her.
Second, of course, they wanted to create a contrast with Trump, and the way they did that was to attack his character over and over again, talking about how, “They wouldn't trust him to move their furniture,” a really great line by Senator Elizabeth Warren, and making a contrast about the schemes and frauds and criminal convictions that are in his background versus, again, Kamala Harris's record as a prosecutor, standing up for a little guy.
And then, of course, another big theme, especially one that came out on day four tonight, was to define the Democratic Party as the party of freedom and the future of the USA. A lot of flags waving in the audience. There was an extended section speaking about the military and military strength, right in prime time. Clearly, Democrats trying to set themselves out to be the party that can defend America.
I would say three groups were really targeted over the course of the convention. The first is union members. There was a lot of shout-outs to organized labor, who are, of course, a key Democratic constituent. Black voters who are going to be absolutely critical to Kamala Harris' ability to win, particularly if they want to compete in Georgia and North Carolina. And then, Republicans, gettable on the fence Republican-leaning independents who don't like Trump all that much and want to feel comfortable voting for Kamala Harris. Very clear themes directed to those three groups throughout the week.
Overall, probably a pretty successful convention. Certainly played well here in the convention hall, but of course, it's how it plays on TV and social media that really matters.
- DNC protesters urge Harris to stop sending arms to Israel ›
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- Why Project 2025 is getting so much attention at the DNC ›
- Ian Explains: What is Kamala Harris' foreign policy? - GZERO Media ›
Populism and partition? Europe's bleak forecast for the year ahead
GZERO’s Tony Maciulis joins Mujtaba Rahman, Eurasia Group's Managing Director for Europe, on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference to discuss the pressing political and economic situation in Europe. Rahman looks ahead to the EU Parliament's upcoming elections, highlighting concerns over populist party performance. “[Populists] will certainly be better represented” Rahman tells Maciulis, “but that being said, the impacts on policy will be marginal at best.”
Rahman also delves into Europe’s economic challenges, citing bleak growth forecasts and Germany's fiscal constraints. “The overall picture is an economy really in the doldrums, not performing…basically flat." Discussing Ukraine, Rahman underscores the risk of partition and stresses the importance of Western integration for Ukraine's ultimate failure or success against Russia. Rahman also raises concerns over the potential impact of a Trump presidency on transatlantic relations. “Is Trump signaling an invitation to Russia and others to probe and to test? That's really where the concern lies."
Join Ian Bremmer and a panel of experts this Saturday, February 17, at 12 pm ET/9 am PT/6 pm CET for our Global Stage discussion at the Munich Security Conference: Protecting Elections in the Ageof AI.
Keep up with GZERO's Global Stage coverage of MSC 2024 for more.
Podcast: Trouble ahead: The top global risks of 2024
Listen: In a special edition of the GZERO podcast, we're diving into our expectations for the topsy-turvy year ahead. The war in Ukraine is heading into a stalemate and possible partition. Israel's invasion of Gaza has amplified region-wide tensions that threaten to spill over into an even wider, even more disastrous, even ghastlier conflict. And in the United States, the presidential election threatens to rip apart the feeble tendrils holding together American democracy.
All those trends and more topped Eurasia Group's annual Top Risks project for 2024, which takes the view from 30,000 feet to summarize the most dangerous and looming unknowns in the coming year. Everything from out-of-control AI to China's slow-rolling economy made this year's list.
GZERO Publisher Evan Solomon sat down with Eurasia Group Founder and President Ian Bremmer and Chairman Cliff Kupchan to work through their list of Top Risks for 2024 alongside Susan Glasser, staff writer at The New Yorker and co-author of "The Divider: Trump in the White House, 2017-2021"; Zeid Ra'ad Al Hussein, CEO & President of the International Peace Institute and former United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights; and Marietje Schaake, International Policy Fellow, Stanford Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence. The big throughline this year? Events spiral out of control even against the wishes of major players. Whether it's possible escalation between Israel and Iranian proxies, Chinese retaliation to the result of the Taiwanese election, or central banks finding themselves squeezed into a corner by persistent inflation, the sheer number of moving parts presents a risk in and of itself.
Take a deep dive with the panel in our full discussion, recorded live on January 8.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.
A world of conflict: The top risks of 2024
2024 is shaping up to be a turbulent year. The war in Ukraine is heading into a stalemate that puts the country on the road to partition. Israel's invasion of Gaza risks expanding to a region-wide war. And in the United States, the presidential election is pitting a divided country against itself with unprecedented risks for its democracy. Throw in AI growing faster than governments can keep up, China's rumbly grumbly economy, and El Nino weather, and you're starting to get the picture.
All those trends and more made it onto Eurasia Group's annual Top Risk project for 2024. As a political risk consultancy, Eurasia Group strives to keep clients informed of the global affairs that will impact their interests and bottom lines. The Top Risks project takes the view from 30,000 feet every year, summarizing the biggest and most dangerous unknowns that will affect everyone, political junkie or not.
GZERO Publisher Evan Solomon sat down with Eurasia Group Founder and President Ian Bremmer and Chairman Cliff Kupchan to work through their list of Top Risks for 2024 alongside Susan Glasser, staff writer at The New Yorker and co-author of "The Divider: Trump in the White House, 2017-2021"; Zeid Ra'ad Al Hussein, CEO & President of the International Peace Institute and former United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights; and Marietje Schaake, International Policy Fellow, Stanford Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence. The big throughline this year? Events spiral out of control even against the wishes of major players. Whether it's possible escalation between Israel and Iranian proxies, Chinese retaliation to the result of the Taiwanese election, or central banks finding themselves squeezed into a corner by persistent inflation, the sheer number of moving parts presents a risk in and of itself.
Take a deep dive with the panel in our full discussion, livestreamed on Jan. 8.
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- Eurasia Group’s Top Global Risks 2024 ›
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- AI regulation means adapting old laws for new tech: Marietje Schaake - GZERO Media ›
- 2024 is the ‘Voldemort’ of election years, says Ian Bremmer - GZERO Media ›
- Podcast: Trouble ahead: The top global risks of 2024 - GZERO Media ›
- Ian Bremmer's 2024 State of the World speech: Watch live Tuesday at 8:30 pm ET - GZERO Media ›
- The challenges of peacekeeping amid rising global conflicts - GZERO Media ›
- Live on Jan. 6: the Top Risks of 2025 - GZERO Media ›
Hold us accountable: Our biggest calls for 2023
Every year, Eurasia Group releases its Top 10 geopolitical risks for the year ahead. You’ll see the 2024 edition next Monday. But an honest analyst looks back at past forecasts to see (and acknowledge) what he got right and wrong, and I’m going to do that here and now.
Here’s the 2023 full report. To remind you, our Top 10 risks for 2023 were:
- Rogue Russia
- Maximum Xi
- Weapons of Mass Disruption
- Inflation shockwaves
- Iran in a corner
- Energy crunch
- Arrested global development
- Divided States of America
- TikTok boom
- Water stress
Let’s take these one at a time …
1. Rogue Russia
Our top risk last year was that the war between Russia and Ukraine would be no closer to resolution and that Russia would be on track to become the world’s most dangerous rogue state.
Check and check.
Another year of brutal fighting brought hundreds of thousands of casualties – and barely budged the war’s frontlines. Russia, still led by a president considered a war criminal in the West, now faces even more sanctions, and it has therefore drawn closer to Iran and North Korea to procure much-needed military supplies from both.
Russia has also picked up the pace of cyberattacks on Ukrainian targets and continues to target cities across the country with airstrikes. Putin has kept Russia’s asymmetrical attacks incremental to avoid escalation and exacerbating divisions in the West, but Russian disinformation attacks are picking up in support of Kremlin-friendly politicians and political parties inside NATO countries.
For 2024, Putin will have new options. More on that next week.
2. Maximum Xi
This call fared well too. We expected Xi Jinping’s consolidation of political power to create big economic and policy challenges through increasingly arbitrary and capricious central decision-making. We saw that most dramatically early in 2023 when a sudden U-turn from the world’s tightest zero-COVID policies produced a bad hangover for the Chinese economy.
Making matters worse, the expected economic bounce-back hasn’t materialized, and the unpredictability of government decision-making led to growing capital flight and a sharp turnaround in foreign direct investment, weakening the economy further.
In fairness, Xi Jinping responded to the economic weakness later in the year with a friendlier and more open foreign policy than we feared. Relations with the United States and Europe have been far better managed in recent months.
Do we expect that trend to last in 2024? We’ll tell you much more about that next week too.
3. Weapons of Mass Disruption
Here’s where I think we were furthest ahead of the curve. A year ago, very, very few political leaders were actively thinking about the disruptive power of artificial intelligence. Now, the hopes and fears are front and center in every region of the world – but especially for decision-makers in America, China, and Europe. The UN is on the case now too.
We learned this year that new AI tools represent a unique technological breakthrough with implications for every sector of the economy. They’re already driving a new phase of globalization. But they’re also creating serious risks because AI will enable disinformation on a massive scale, fuel public mistrust in governing institutions, and empower demagogues and autocrats in both politics and the private sector. More on that next week too.
4. Inflation shockwaves
Here our forecast mainly missed the mark. We expected that inflation at levels not seen in generations would lead to a restrictive policy stance by major central banks, reducing global demand and causing financial stress and social and political instability. We were thinking mainly of countries already under pressure, but we considered the United States vulnerable too.
The US did experience a banking crisis of confidence following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic in 2023, but stronger-than-expected growth and continued low unemployment helped contain the fallout.
The global impact was less than we expected. Yes, China underperformed, but Europe absorbed the shocks created by the transition away from imports of Russian energy, and overall US performance stuck close to the “Goldilocks” scenario of slow economic cooling while avoiding recession. The risk of a major financial crisis was avoided.
With hindsight, inflation deserved to be on the list, but not at #4.
5. Iran in a corner
This one cut both ways in 2023. On the one hand, as we expected, there was no breakthrough with the Biden administration to restore the Iran nuclear deal, and that led Tehran to step up uranium enrichment and stockpiling. It also upped its military cooperation with the Kremlin, particularly with drone transfers that boosted Russia on the battlefield in Ukraine.
We also finished the year with serious concerns about an expansion of the regional war between Israel and Hamas, a conflict in which Iran would be a key player. Their various proxies in the region were already stepping up attacks on Israel and US forces in the region as 2023 came to an end.
But the positive surprise was a breakthrough we didn’t foresee — brokered by China — between Iran and Saudi Arabia. That diplomatic opening has facilitated better economic relations, and following the outbreak of war, leaders of the two countries have been in regular communication, helping to stabilize the region for now.
6. Energy crunch
This was the biggest miss in our 2023 top risks report. We forecast that supply-limiting geopolitical challenges coupled with higher global energy demand would push oil prices beyond $100 a barrel by the end of the year. But there was no energy crunch in 2023 because the wars and the best efforts of OPEC+ to bolster prices couldn’t outweigh reduced demand from sluggish economic growth in China or a dramatic expansion of US oil production despite its commitment to a faster and more expansive energy transition. Oil topped out just under $95 and quickly backed down. Despite the entirely unexpected risks in the Middle East, the price has lately bounced between $75-$80 per barrel.
7. Arrested global development
Though the pandemic is over, human development indicators overall continue to suffer, thanks to the Russia-Ukraine war, global inflation, climate change, the Israel-Hamas war, and a number of other military coups and conflicts in places like Haiti, Sudan, Ethiopia, and Armenia-Azerbaijan that receive very little attention from Western media.
The result is lower levels of economic and political security for most of the world’s population. This should have come higher on our list.
8. Divided States of America
Given the structural political dysfunction (ask former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and the parade of his hapless would-be replacements) and the continued erosion of public confidence in US political institutions, this deserved to be on the list. Given the trajectory, we should have had it a little higher.
The 2024 election season is now in full swing, and in many ways, it is more problematic than in 2020. The international impact has so far been limited, and other governments are only just starting to grapple with the post-November uncertainties in US policymaking. More on that next week.
9. TikTok boom
Gen Z certainly became a bigger player in 2023, and not just on climate or issues of equality and identity politics. The Israel-Hamas war has created early challenges for the Biden reelection campaign, with both support for Palestinians and anger at the Israeli government becoming more intense as 2024 begins.
10. Water Stress
Water stress became more of an issue in 2023. Record rains made a big positive difference in the United States, facilitating a political deal for water-sharing in western US states and giving farmers a medium-term lease on life.
But other water-stressed parts of the world have experienced more pain. Northern Mexico remains in serious trouble. Agriculture and overall fiscal strain across Europe will require new political thinking. Sub-Saharan Africa now faces more starvation, especially in the Sahel and the Horn of Africa, adding to forced migration trends. Too many governments are focused only on crises, leaving longer-term plans for new institutions capable of marshaling long-term resources on the drawing board.
So, that’s my look back at 2023. Beginning next Monday, you’ll be reading much more about our expectations for a historically turbulent 2024.
US-China tech tensions: the impact on the global digital landscape
As the digital world continues to grow and evolve, there still exists a digital divide between the US and China. Alexis Serfaty, director of geotechnology at Eurasia Group, in a GZERO livestream presented by Visa, says that has long as US-China relations continue to be involved in a “tech cold war,” other countries, especially in developed regions, may find themselves compelled to take sides when it comes to adopting new technology infrastructure and standards. Global data divergencies and disparities in regulation of data would eventually fall on to the consumer, as their own experiences and standards would diverge, says Serfaty.
Serfaty goes on to say this alignment with either the US or China could also impact tech-related supply chains and global partnerships. An example lies in Europe, where despite some nations still utilizing Huawei equipment in their 5G networks, the European Union and several member states are progressively banning Chinese-made equipment. In parallel, the United States is poised not only to enhance its lead over China in advanced technologies but also to maintain that lead indefinitely.
The geopolitical tensions between the US and China in shaping the future of digitization is posing challenges and opportunities for nations striving to navigate this evolving digital landscape, highlights Serfaty.
To hear more about the challenges and opportunities that nation-states face when it comes to digitization, and how it could shape a more inclusive and resilient future, watch the full livestream here:
What Ukraine's digital revolution teaches the world
The digitalization divide: opportunities and challenges in emerging markets
In GZERO’s livestream event presented by Visa, a panel of geotech experts delved into the pivotal role of digitalization in shaping the global economy. One striking revelation emerged: Nearly three-fourths of all new value created by the end of this decade will be rooted in digitalization and digitally enabled business models. This underscores the seismic shift toward a digital-first world. While the prospects of this digital revolution are promising, Alexis Serfaty, director of geotechnology at Eurasia Group, highlighted a stark reality: Over 2.5 billion people still lack access to the Internet, effectively excluding them from the digital economy.
This digital divide poses a substantial risk as the world becomes increasingly digitized. As digital businesses flourish, there is concern that economic disparities could worsen, potentially leading to social instability in some regions.
To learn more about the challenges and opportunities that nation-states face when it comes to digitization, and how it could shape a more inclusive and resilient future, watch the full livestream conversation: