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Russian President Vladimir Putin tours an exhibition as part of the Strong Ideas for a New Time forum held by the Agency for Strategic Initiatives, an autonomous non-profit organization in Moscow, on Feb. 20, 2024.
Viewpoint: Russian authorities seek strong election showing for Putin
Amid tight control of dissent, a crackdown on the opposition, and a big pressure campaign to get voters to the polls, there is little doubt President Vladimir Putin will win another term in office in elections being heldon March 15-17. Still,the Kremlin is working hard to ensure a strong showing for the 71-year-old leader who has ruled the country for 25 years. Displays of public support are important for his legitimacy.
Eurasia Group expert Alex Brideau says one important watchpoint will be whether the followers of opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who recently died in a Russian prison, can organize a symbolic protest vote. We sat down with Alex to learn more about what to expect in the election and the strength of the Putin regime.
What steps is the Kremlin taking to ensure Putin’s victory?
The Kremlin is not worried about Putin losing the election, but it doesn’t want any big surprises. The authorities have ensured that voters have few options when choosing the president. Along with Putin, three other candidates represent loyal opposition parties that lack substantial public support. The state’s repression of critical politicians and activists through arrests, bans on activities and fundraising, exile, or killings has been so strong that there were few real opposition candidates capable of rallying large numbers of voters. Those who tried this time to get on the ballot failed to get past the Central Election Commission.
Putin’s team also has been working with regional and local officials to ensure that both turnout and support for the president will be high. It is aiming for 70%-80% of the vote, according to independent Russian media outlet Meduza. Government employees, soldiers, and people working for state-owned companies will be under pressure to vote and ensure others vote for Putin, too.
Will Navalny’s death have any impact?
The crowds that gathered in Moscow to say farewell to Navalny showed that people will show their opposition to Putin, if very cautiously. Still, there is no candidate on the ballot to rally those voters. Navalny’s organization has been hounded by the security services since his arrest in 2021, making it hard for them to have an effect. But they will nevertheless try. Navalny’s widow Yulia has encouraged people to vote for anyone other than Putin, while others have encouraged opponents to do this together at noon on the 17th. The tactic won’t stop Putin from winning, but it could embarrass the regime if enough voters follow their advice.
What do you make of the level of support garnered by anti-war candidates before they were barred?
Two candidates running on anti-war messages tried to get on the ballot: Ekaterina Duntsova and Boris Nadezhdin. This offered an imperfect gauge of anti-war sentiment in January, when thousands of people lined up in cities across the country to give Nadezhdin the needed signatures to become a candidate. But Russian authorities stepped in and both politicians were barred from the ballot on technicalities widely seen as a way to ensure their anti-war campaigns would not continue.
Nonetheless, it is important to note that Putin has not shied away from talking about the war while campaigning. Instead, he has expressed optimism about continued success in the invasion and has not dialed back his previously declared objectives for the war. He has also played up his narrative of a threat from NATO and the West.
What other indications do we have about the true level of public support for Putin and the war in Ukraine?
Experts continue to debate the reliability of opinion polling in Russia, especially as repression has increased. At the very least, polls like those from the independent Levada Center have shown Putin gets consistently high backing in the upper-70% to mid-80% range. Putin’s apparent high popularity has long been an important part of how he demonstrates his legitimacy and manages Russia’s elites.
Polls also show the public’s consistently strong support for Russia’s military actions in Ukraine. However, they also show contradictory views on the issue. A majority support negotiations to end the war, but a majority also opposes giving back any occupied Ukrainian land to secure peace. Mobilization is not popular, something seen during the partial mobilization drive in the fall of 2022. Putin appears sensitive to this and has stated multiple times that a new mobilization won’t be necessary.
How would you place the level of repression in Russia now in a historical context?
Dissent in Putin’s Russia has always carried some risk, but the last three years have seen the highest level of repression in Russia’s post-Soviet existence. It started in the wake of Navalny’s 2021 imprisonment and expanded as Russian authorities used the war to further clamp down on dissent. The public now has very few legal outlets to protest government actions.
It’s hard not to see some similarities to the Soviet era's use of the security services, and their tactics, to squash opposition to the regime. But the societal control Russian officials can muster today through arrests, intimidation, and censorship is not nearly on the same level as what the Communist Party exerted over the everyday lives of Soviet citizens.
What would it take to loosen Putin’s grip on power?
Putin enters this election confident about the war and an economy that has grown despite major Western sanctions. But the war and the economy present a risk to him if they falter down the road. Moreover, some of the biggest protests during Putin’s time in power have been reactions to corruption or the abuse of power. The lack of outlets to oppose the government without fear of jail or fines creates a danger for the Kremlin: that an incident triggers spontaneous unrest that spreads nationwide. That said, Putin will enter his next term quite firmly in power, with little to suggest that he is under threat of losing control anytime soon.
Edited by Jonathan House, Senior Editor at Eurasia Group
President of South Africa, Cyril Ramaphosa attends the second day of the 37th Ordinary Session of the Assembly of the African Union at the African Union.
South Africa to hold May elections
The election will be a referendum on the ANC, which has been mired in controversy over record levels of crime, slow economic growth, unemployment, and rolling blackouts. Alongside the election announcement, the ANC bumped up social benefits in an attempt to raise polling numbers.
The ANC’s biggest rival, the Democratic Alliance, is trying to build a coalition of smaller parties to break the ANC's majority. The third biggest party, Economic Freedom Fighters, is not considering joining the opposition coalition and is eating into ANC’s support following its promise to double social benefits if elected.
Right now, opinion polls show ANC approval ratings below 50%. If this translates into votes, it will mean the ANC will have to form the country’s first-ever coalition government to keep Ramaphosa — a political protege of Mandela — as president for a second and final five-year term.El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele, who is running for reelection, greets people, on the day of the presidential and parliamentary elections in San Salvador, El Salvador, February 4, 2024.
Crime fighter cruises to victory in El Salvador
Salvadorans voted overwhelmingly on Sunday to reelect President Nayib Bukele, the self-styled “world’s coolest dictator” – even though the constitution says he can’t serve a second term. Provisional results show he won 83% of the vote.
Bukele came to power five years ago promising to clean up rampant crime and corruption that had turned El Salvador into a lawless state. Today, 75,000 people, or 1.7% of the country’s adult population, are in jail, which is the highest incarceration rate in the world.
Despite criticism for his authoritarian methods, and accusations that his government colludes with the very gangs he vowed to stamp out, Bukele remains wildly popular. Pre-election polls had his main rivals receiving barely 12% of the vote between them.
Bukele's second term faces challenges, however, as poverty remains high and the IMF describes the country’s fiscal situation as "fragile." Since 2019, extreme poverty has doubled and almost half the population is food insecure. Bukele’s economic reforms have been unorthodox: In 2021, the government declared Bitcoin legal tender, attracting attention but also criticism for its volatility. Today, Bukele says El Salvador’s investments in the cryptocurrency are in the black, but it remains to be seen if he has as much success tackling poverty as he did crime.
A potential voter takes home a sign after attending a house party supporting the write-in campaign to put US President Joe Biden's name on the New Hampshire Democratic primary ballot.
Deepfakes on are on the campaign trail too
The Dean Phillips chatbot isn’t the only artificial intelligence in the race.
Ahead of presidential primaries Tuesday night in the Granite State, the New Hampshire Justice Department said it is investigating reports of robocalls impersonating President Joe Biden. The calls, allegedly featuring an AI version of Biden’s voice, encourage voters to stay home on Tuesday and instead save their vote for November.
“Your vote makes a difference in November, not this Tuesday,” the faux Biden said. It’s the first-known case of someone using generative AI to suppress the vote in a presidential election. The robocall was also “spoofed” to seem like it was sent by a New Hampshire Democratic operative, the government said in a press release. The state justice department reminded voters that voting on Tuesday doesn’t preclude them from voting in November’s general election.
Biden’s likely opponent, former President Donald Trump, has meanwhile resorted to telling his supporters that an advertisement showing his gaffes is artificially generated — even though they’re not. “The perverts and losers at the failed and once disbanded Lincoln Project, and others, are using AI (Artificial Intelligence) in their Fake television commercials in order to make me look as bad and pathetic as Crooked Joe Biden, not an easy thing to do,” Trump posted on his social network Truth Social, a claim the Lincoln Project, the ad’s maker, vehemently denied.
In an interview with The Washington Post, the UC Berkeley professor Hany Farid said AI presents a “liar’s dividend,” which gives candidates plausible deniability to say anything they don’t like — or wish they didn’t do or say — is actually AI.
A tale of two approaches to immigration
Over the last 60 years or so, the United States and Canada have admitted tens of millions of immigrants. In 1960, fewer than 10 million people in the US were foreign-born – a mere 5% of the population. Today, there are over 46 million immigrants in the country, comprising roughly 14% of the population.
By contrast, in 1961, Canada was home to 2.8 million immigrants, or 15.6% of the country – considerably more than the US per capita. In 2022, Canada welcomed a record number of people with over 430,000 arriving, and the latest census in 2021 found over 8.3 million – or nearly 1-in-4 people – are immigrants or permanent residents.
The popular imagination in Canada might assume the country is more welcoming, evolved, and progressive on immigration than the US, but the two countries have more in common on this issue than you might expect.
As crises in housing, education, healthcare, and affordability in general persist – and worsen – Canadians and their leaders are increasingly likely to consider immigration a source of tension.
Liberal immigration woes
In 2022, Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government announced new, higher, immigration targets that included a plan to incrementally increase the number of permanent residents Canada accepts from 405,000 in 2021 to 500,00 in 2025. At the same time, the number of temporary residents was rising. There were roughly 2.2 million non-permanent residents – including upward of 900,000 international students – in Canada in 2023. That’s nearly 50% more non-permanent residents than in 2022.
But now, amid a housing shortage, Canada’s Immigration Minister Marc Miller is considering ideas to ‘rein in’ the number of temporary residents in the country, including a potential cap on how many are admitted. Miller is taking particular aim at foreign students – who are critical to university funding in the country – saying the system is “out of control.” Housing Minister Sean Fraser is even open to the idea of basing immigration numbers on the housing supply – an idea supported by Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre.
Earlier this week, news broke that the federal government is considering restricting the number of international students in certain provinces that are facing acute housing shortages. A source cited Ontario, British Columbia, and Nova Scotia as potential targets. The minister’s office has not confirmed that such a plan exists.
A recent poll by Leger, in November 2023, found that about 75% of respondents say an increase in immigration is exacerbating the housing crisis in Canada. Roughly the same number say it’s putting pressure on the healthcare system, while two-thirds say it’s affecting the education system.
The poll also found softening support for welcoming newcomers, including nearly 48% who believe Canada should lower its immigration rate. That number includes 64% of Conservatives who wish to see fewer newcomers compared to 29% of Liberals, indicating a partisan divide.
The cross-partisan battle for newcomers
For decades, immigration in Canada has enjoyed a popular, cross-party consensus in support of newcomers that included broadly positive discourse around the issue, though typically that support has been tied to immigrants as a labor source and newcomers as economic drivers. In the United States, the public and politicians share the same view, with immigrants cast as economy builders, but the issue has been heavily politicized along partisan lines while irregular migration has shaped attitudes and increased anti-immigration sentiment.
Graeme Thompson, a senior analyst with Eurasia Group's global macro-geopolitics practice, says that in Canada both the Liberals and Conservatives want to win the support of diaspora communities and newcomers, which has affected the politics of immigration in the country.
“Both parties want to win votes in suburban Vancouver and Toronto. They’re fishing in the same pond when it comes to pursuing the votes of new Canadians,” he says. Consequently, neither party wants to alienate immigrants with an anti-immigration posture.
American attitudes similar to Canadian
In the US, however, not only has the partisan politicization of immigration across party lines led to greater controversy, says Thompson, but irregular migration along the southern border has also shaped opinions about immigration and produced toxic discourse and politics.
Despite the sharp partisan divide, Americans nonetheless support immigration and US numbers aren’t so different from Canadian numbers. In July 2023, Gallup found that 68% of the country believed immigration was a good thing, and a majority wanted to see the same number or more immigrants. Similar to Canadian numbers, 41% of people wanted to see fewer immigrants, up from an all-time low of 28% in 2020. That 41% is conditioned by partisan affiliation, with 73% of Republicans wanting to see the number of immigrants decline compared to 18% of Democrats – a more pronounced partisan split than in Canada.
A hot-button election issue?
With the US presidential election coming in November, a Canadian election due by October 2025, and persistent affordability and social service issues, immigration is set to become a critical issue on both sides of the border.
In the US, Thompson expects immigration to play out as it typically does, including a Republican focus on irregular migrants and strengthening the border.
“In a really powerful sense, as a hot-button issue, immigration is going to be front of mind for American voters,” he says. That’s especially true as irregular crossings are up along the Mexican border and governors are sending migrants to northern cities, including New York, where Mayor Eric Adams says the city can’t handle the numbers.
In Canada, Thompson says, the immigration framing will be more a derivative of “bread and butter issues.”
“I don’t think Canadians will turn anti-immigrant. But I think they will become more skeptical in the context of housing shortages, affordability issues, and strains on the healthcare and education systems.”
Immigration is set to be a central issue in both Canada and the US in the coming months and years and will shape political fortunes as we approach two big elections. And while both countries are receptive to immigrants, there’s a risk that pro-immigration attitudes in the US decline.
There’s also a risk that Canada’s longstanding, cross-partisan consensus on welcoming newcomers fractures as crises in housing, education, healthcare, and affordability persist. The need to find policy solutions that respond to pressures without scapegoating newcomers is important and will test the current crop of leadership, threatening political incumbents – and immigrants, too.
Supporters of Lai Ching-te, Taiwan's vice president and the ruling Democratic Progressive Party's presidential candidate attend, a campaign event in New Taipei City, Taiwan, on Jan. 6, 2024.
Taiwan holds first big election of 2024
The world will be watching when Taiwanese voters head to the polls on Jan. 13 to choose their next president. The first in a series of elections with global ramifications in 2024, Taiwan’s vote will be a flashpoint in the tense US-China relationship. China regards Taiwan as a breakaway territory and has vowed to unify with it, by force if necessary. Taiwan has the backing of the US, which would feel pressured to come to the island’s defense in the event of a conflict with China.
The election is shaping up into a close contest between the independence-leaning candidate William Lai Ching-te of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, or DPP, and Hou You-ih of the Kuomintang, aka KMT, who favors closer relations with China.
We asked Eurasia Group expert Ava Shen what to watch for.
What is the state of play of the race?
The DPP’s Lai remains the front-runner and has held a consistent lead in this election cycle, but his lead has been narrowing. According to the latest polling data available from Jan. 1-2, he is about five points ahead of the KMT’s Hou, who started gaining ground in late November. Winning the party’s official nomination, with Jaw Shaw-kong chosen as his running mate, has helped Hou consolidate the support of the KMT base. The end to efforts to broker a presidential joint ticket with Ko Wen-je of the Taiwan People’s Party, or TPP, has also helped.
This momentum gives the KMT a lot of confidence in its ability to mobilize a last-minute surge in support, possibly thanks to strategic voting by TPP supporters who don’t want another DPP administration. Lai remains favored to win, but it’s going to be close. It’s also noteworthy that Lai, if he wins, would probably do so with less than 50% of the vote. That marks a shift from the elections of 2016 and 2020 when current President Tsai Ing-wen comfortably cleared that threshold.
What would a Lai victory mean for relations with China?
Beijing would probably have an immediate negative reaction. It has signaled multiple times that it is deeply wary of Lai, who has a history of comments in favor of full independence for Taiwan, a red line for China. It would respond in two ways. First, it would probably reduce the number of Taiwanese products that are subject to preferential tariff rates under the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement, the cross-strait trade agreement signed in 2010. In a warning shot to Taiwan’s voters, it excluded 12 Taiwanese products from the agreement in mid-December.
Second, China would likely intensify what it has already been doing in the military sphere. If Beijing judges any of Lai’s post-election remarks to be provocative, it will consider flying larger numbers of fighter jets over the Taiwan Strait, deploying more coast guard or naval vessels, and possibly moving those military assets closer to Taiwan’s main island. It could enter for the first time Taiwan’s 24-nautical-mile contiguous zone.
But Lai has moderated his rhetoric recently, hasn’t he?
Yes. He has indicated on the campaign trail that he would maintain the status quo and continue the approach that Tsai has taken to cross-strait relations. Still, from Beijing’s perspective, this is not enough. It does not like Tsai’s cross-strait policies but believes she has exercised restraint in managing tensions. It views Lai as more reckless.
Nonetheless, as I said, Lai is not likely to win by a large margin, and his party will probably lose its majority in the legislature. This is important to Beijing because it sends a signal that the DPP doesn’t have complete control over the island’s politics and that not everyone supports independence. That gives Beijing some hope that the idea of unification is not dead.
So, we think tensions are likely to rise in the event of a Lai victory, but it won’t be a catastrophic situation.
And what would a Hou victory mean for cross-strait relations?
If Hou wins, there is less of a risk of Beijing increasing the pressure against Taipei in the short term. However, there is a risk it will resume aggressive tactics over the long term if Hou doesn’t agree to upgrade cross-strait ties economically and politically. China wants to move toward more regular contact between government officials on both sides and take steps toward unification.
Hou has said he wants to start with more cultural and economic engagement, and if things go well, gradually progress to more political exchange, something that Taiwanese society broadly opposes. So, he's saying he wants to put off the political engagement that Beijing is seeking, and the question is, how long is Beijing going to patiently wait?
What’s at stake for the US in this election?
The US’s official stance is that it has no preferred candidate, and I think it has been consistent in maintaining this approach even in private interactions with Taiwan counterparts. The bilateral relationship is robust, and all three of the main Taiwanese parties are committed to close US ties.
That said, President Joe Biden’s administration likely recognizes that a Lai victory has the potential to jeopardize the recent stabilization of the fraught US-China relationship if it provokes an aggressive Chinese response, putting the US under pressure to offer a gesture of support. As Eurasia Group noted in its Top Risks 2024 report, Lai is one of a handful of “dangerous friends,” a group of friendly world leaders who may draw the US into expanded conflicts this year.
Edited by Jonathan House, Senior Editor at Eurasia Group
Europe's big political stories to watch in 2024
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics.
What are the big political stories in Europe 2024?
Well, obviously the Russian aggression against Ukraine and the possibility of supporting Ukraine in its fight for its independence, freedom of sovereignty, is going to be the dominant story.
But apart from that, the election to the European Parliament happening in early summer, that's going to be enormously important, both because it will show the respective strengths of the different political forces in Europe. I would expect the center-right EPP to remain as the dominant force in the European Parliament, but that remains to be seen. And that is of course the beginning of the process of appointing all of the new personalities that will dominate the European Union in the coming five years. President of the European Council, president of the Commission, high representative for foreign and security affairs, president of the European Parliament, all of the commissioners, all will be decided during the month immediately after the election, based on that particular result.
Then, of course, an election in the United Kingdom, which is highly likely to produce a new government. And then perhaps the possibility, with a new commission and a new government in London, a more constructive relationship across the channel between Brussels and London. And I think that might be highly needed, as the country that I'm at the moment in is also having an election in November, and that might produce an outcome which might be highly problematic from several points of view. And Europe has to be ready
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Vehicles drive past posters of presidential candidate and current Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi ahead of the presidential elections to be held inside the country next week, in Cairo, Egypt, December 5, 2023.
Egyptian vote: the one thing to watch
Sorry to be a spoiler here, but: Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi is going to win this weekend’s election, and it won’t be close.
During his decade in power, the ex-general has unleashed a ferocious crackdown on civil society, crushed the political opposition, and empowered his military pals to keep control over the commanding heights of the economy.
He is now running against three regime-approved opponents whose names you will never need to know because they do not stand a chance. The slogan “Sisi ra’isi!” (“Sisi is my president!” in Arabic) will carry the day.
Still, there is one big question: What will turnout be? After all, elections in dictatorships aren’t about choice and accountability, but they are about gauging the regime’s ability to mobilize support for itself. After several years of grinding economic crisis — the Egyptian pound has shed half its value over the past 18 months, causing inflation to soar — disillusionment with Sisi is thought to be growing.
And that matters because after the election, Sisi faces big challenges. One, of course, is to manage any spillover from the situation next door in Gaza. On this score, he is well positioned — he is a military man, after all, who cuts a strong figure on national security.
But he also has to make deeply unpopular economic moves. The heavily indebted country secured an IMF bailout last year, but the fund has paused the program until Sisi accelerates privatizations (which will anger his military buddies), cuts spending, and lets the currency weaken further (which will stoke already-high inflation, angering everyone).
Before pulling those teeth, Sisi will want to at least have the appearance of being firmly in control of a narrative – and a bureaucracy – that can prod people to the polls. In fact, he moved the election date up by a year for precisely this reason, experts say.
The upshot: Ignore the other candidates, watch for turnout, and buckle up for what comes after.