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A voter casting a ballot in front of the Philippines flag.
Philippine midterms are next episode in Marcos-Duterte drama
The Philippines will hold midterm elections on May 12, with all 317 seats in the House of Representatives, half the 24-member Senate, and various provincial, city, and municipal positions up for grabs. The winners will take office on June 30, with terms of six years for the senators and three years for all other officeholders.
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. hopes to maintain his control of Congress as he seeks to advance his legislative agenda and expand his influence at the expense of former president Rodrigo Duterte’s political faction. In July, the new Senate will hold an impeachment trial for Vice President Sara Duterte-Carpio, who is the former president’s daughter and has repeatedly clashed with Marcos.
We asked Eurasia Group expert Peter Mumford what to watch for in this weekend’s vote.
What are the most important races?
The focus is really on the 12 Senate seats up for election; the House tends to align with the sitting president regardless of its composition. Marcos’s coalition currently consists of six parties in the Senate and nine in the House. Political parties have long been weak in the Philippines, so the concept of a “majority” is very fluid, especially in the Senate, which often acts independently of the president. Officially, the Senate is broken down into “majority bloc,” “minority bloc,” and independents – but “majority” refers to those senators who support the Senate president. This maps roughly, but not precisely, onto the coalition supporting Marcos (or not). There are members of the same party in both the majority and minority blocs, for example. It is therefore easier, but more subjective, to map out the senators who support Marcos and those who do not.
So, what are the stakes in the Senate races?
There are two main implications. First, and more significant for Marcos’s agenda, is whether Marcos retains majority support in the upper house; failure to do so would make it harder to pass proposed economic legislation, including a power sector overhaul aimed at lowering high electricity prices and modest revenue-raising measures designed to trim the large budget deficit and provide more resources for social spending priorities. Second, Duterte-Carpio’s political future is at stake following her impeachment by the House earlier this year on charges of high crimes related to death threats against the president and betrayal of public trust related to alleged misuse of intelligence funds (please see more below).
What are the most important issues for voters heading into these elections?
Surveys show that cost-of-living concerns are by far the biggest issue for voters. The Philippines has been grappling with relatively high inflation in recent years, with food prices a particular concern; price rises have slowed in recent months but that has not yet translated into shifts in public opinion. According to a recent poll, 79% of Filipinos disapprove of the administration’s efforts to control inflation, with just 3% approving. After cost-of-living, voters’ main concerns are pay, corruption, crime, and poverty.
How do the candidates propose to address these concerns?
They have made generic promises about tackling poverty but offered little in terms of specific measures. Philippine elections, especially those for congress, are primarily driven by the personalities and name recognition of the candidates. Many voters will be casting their ballots on the basis of who they know and like, rather than the policy or ideological views of the candidates. It’s worth noting that six of the top 12 candidates in polls are show business personalities; another popular figure is the former boxer Manny Pacquiao, a senator who is running for reelection.
How does the feud between the Marcos and Duterte clans play into election dynamics?
The battle for influence between the country’s two most powerful political dynasties sets the backdrop for the midterms. The upcoming polls will not have an impact on how long Marcos serves as president: He is bound by a single six-year term limit and is very unlikely to be impeached or removed by a coup before his terms ends in 2028. But the outcome of the upcoming Senate poll will determine whether Duterte-Carpio is removed from office and banned from running for public office again. Duterte-Carpio is the early favorite for the 2028 presidential election and the Marcos clan likely hopes she is prevented from running, making it easier for a member of the president’s family or another ally to succeed him.
Duterte-Carpio’s Senate trial is due to begin in late July. If two-thirds (16) of the senators vote against the vice president, she will be removed from office and probably barred from holding other government offices in the future (there is some debate about whether the latter would automatically apply if she is found guilty). She needs only nine senators to vote against or abstain. In addition, the outlook is complicated by the fact that some senators counted in the “pro-Marcos” majority, as they tend to support the administration’s bills, are actually closer to the Dutertes and will likely oppose her removal. That said, the president could press allies to vote against her.
Edited by Jonathan House, Senior Editor at Eurasia Group.
A man holding a cake sings Happy Birthday for Calin Georgescu during an event to celebrate Georgescu's birthday, in Bucharest, Romania, March 26, 2025.
Far-right places first in Romanian election, sets stage for run-off
Far-right nationalist George Simion won the first round of Romania’s presidential rerun election on Sunday, securing 41% of the vote. Simion, leader of the Alliance for the Union of Romanians, or AUR, is known for his pro-Trump, Eurosceptic stance and opposition to military aid for Ukraine. Simion came in first but failed to reach the 50% threshold needed to win outright. Independent Bucharest Mayor Nicușor Dan came in second with 21% of the vote, edging out centrist Crin Antonescu,and will face Simion in the runoff on May 18.
What led up to this election? The vote is a rerun afterthe Constitutional Court annulled Romania’s November 2024 presidential contest over allegations of Russian interference. Moscow was pushing for ultranationalist candidate Călin Georgescu on social media in November, and though barred from running, Georgescu remains influential – he even voted at Simion’s side on Sunday – and could play a significant role in an AUR administration.
How did Simion succeed – and where would he take Romania? Simion tapped into widespread public discontent with Romania’s political establishment, struggling economy, and skepticism toward EU institutions. His rise could bring Bucharest closer to Moscow, and he has pledged to end Romanian support for Ukraine in its war with Russia.Lee Jae-myung, the presidential candidate of the Democratic Party, speaks during a policy agreement ceremony with the Korean Confederation of Trade Unions at the Korea Press Center in Seoul, South Korea, on May 1, 2025.
South Korean court throws likely next president into jeopardy
South Korean opposition leader Lee Jae-myung had a rough day on Thursday. The Supreme Court sent the election law case against him back to a lower court, a move that could extend the country’s political chaos. Lee is the favorite to win the June 3 election, but he could be ousted from office if the court rules against him weeks, months, or even years down the line.
The legal circumstances are murky. If elected, Lee might claim that he’s constitutionally protected from prosecution. But the constitution only gives the sitting president immunity against indictment for crimes — other than treason, as impeached former President Yoon Suk-yeol knows all too well. Lee has already been indicted, setting up a contentious debate if the courts rule against him, according to Eurasia Group’s Jeremy Chan.
“The conservatives will be saying that he clearly committed this crime and was charged before he became president, and the punishment is that he’s not allowed to seek public office, which would invalidate this whole election,” says Chan. “The left will be saying that the highest law in the land says very specifically that the president should be immune from these types of charges, and should focus on governing.”
The conservative ruling party is still reeling from Yoon’s impeachment after his quixotic attempt at a military coup in December. Nonetheless, acting President Han Duck-soo resigned on Thursday to make way for his own bid for the top job, despite grim polling numbers. The Joong Ang Daily, a conservative paper, found 42% of voters are leaning toward Lee, while only 13% back Han.
Then again, given the sword of Damocles hanging over Lee, Han might be willing to roll the dice.
Former President Donald Trump dances as he leaves the stage during a rally at the Delaware County Fairgrounds.
HARD NUMBERS: Trump’s first 100 days in five key figures
43: According to a New York Times/Siena College poll released on Friday, 43% of Americans have a favorable view of Trump — down from 48% before the election. Compared to other presidents at the 100-day mark, Trump is performing worse than any in the past 80 years. How would voters describe his first 100 days in a word? Sixty-six percent said “chaotic,” according to the poll.
94%: President Donald Trump hasn’t deported as many people as he’d like thus far, but he has successfully discouraged many potential immigrants from attempting to cross via Mexico – and to an extraordinary degree. US border patrol saw 22,726 people try to cross the southern border in February and March, down 94% from the same period last year, when Joe Biden was at the helm. On Monday, Trump announced plans to sign two executive orders that would further aid him in his immigration crackdown – one that targets sanctuary cities and the other that will empower law enforcement officials with legal protections and military equipment.
80: Trump only posted 80 times on X, formerly known as Twitter, during his second first 100 days, down from the 496 times he posted during the corresponding period of his debut term. Meanwhile, he posted 80 times on Truth Social within the last week, emphasizing how – despite Elon Musk’s purchase of X – the president’s own social media platform is now his communication medium of choice.
130: Trump is marking his 100th day with a rally in Michigan, where he is expected to tout the success of his immigration crackdown and economic policies. The president plans to outline how over 130 countries have reached out to the White House to negotiate trade agreements after he suspended his tariffs for 90 days – a key message to hammer home in the swing state where a large auto industry could either see major gains — or serious losses — depending on whether tariffs boost domestic manufacturing or trigger an economic slowdown.
10: In response to the Trump administration threatening to withhold federal funding from major universities over accusations of antisemitism on their campuses, approximately 10 schools, including some of the Ivy Leagues and other top colleges, have formed an informal group as a united front in legal negotiations. They will decide as a collective how to resist the administration’s demands that, in their view, infringe on academic independence.Workers' Party (WP) supporters wave party flags as they cheer their candidates at the nomination center ahead of the general election in Singapore, on April 23, 2025.
Singapore’s opposition hopes to make major gains as election campaign begins
Singapore kicked off a lightning-fast, nine-day campaign on Wednesday for its May 3 election. The vote promises to be the most contested since independence, as the ruling People’s Action Party sweats a strong challenge amid weak economic forecasts.
Elections in Singapore are usually dull affairs: The PAP has utterly dominated all contests since 1965, with members of the founding Lee family serving as PM for 45 years combined, and as recently as 2024. During one of its worst performances in 2020, the PAP won 89% of seats in parliament – even though it won just 61% of the vote. Such disproportionate electoral results, along with systematic repression of opposition figures, have led to accusations that Singapore is ade facto one-party state.
What’s different this time? First off, the Lion City is facing grim economic prospects. Growth projections have been revised to 0-2% for the year, down from 1-3%, and the heavily trade-dependent economy is reeling from global 10% tariffs imposed by the United States.
Secondly, the PAP’s long time in office contrasts sharply with a slate of newer candidates from the opposition Worker’s Party. PM Lawrence Wong has introduced 32 new candidates in an effort to shed the old guard image, casting off many long-serving stalwarts. A YouGov survey showed that only about 40% of voters would support the PAP if the election were held today, while a 43% plurality either don’t know or wouldn’t say who they will support.
The WP is still fighting uphill. Its leaders hope to take a third of seats in parliament, far from a majority – but perhaps enough to change the political dynamic permanently.
What Canada’s main parties are running on in upcoming election
Canada’s 45th general election is less than two weeks away, and the nation faces a fraught political climate fueled by President Donald Trump’s tariffs and annexation threats towards the country. The election's outcome could have far-reaching impacts on Canada’s future and position in a fragmenting world. In an exclusive interview, GZERO’s Tasha Kheiriddin sits down with Eurasia Group‘s senior advisor John Baird and Vice Chairman Gerald Butts to unpack what’s at stake in Canada’s election, including key political players and the strategies behind their campaigns.
Butts, former principal secretary to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and a key Liberal strategist, says Carney is seeking a public mandate after taking over during Canada’s longest-running minority Parliament. Baird counters that Carney aims to ride early popularity and break from the Trudeau legacy.
Despite clear ideological divides, both Butts and Baird agree on one point: Canada needs a strong majority government. Baird warns that, “when you have such a small number of Members of Parliament, it’s like the tail wagging the dog,” expressing concern over the instability of minority rule. Butts echoes the sentiment, stating the country would be “far better served by a strong government of either political stripe.”
With Canadians heading to the polls, the world will be watching closely. The 2025 Canada election could determine not just the nation's economic path but its place on the global stage.
Watch full interview: Canadians head to the polls — and into the Trump vortex
Pope Francis greets the crowd during a short appearance at Gemelli hospital, in Rome, on Sunday, March 23, 2025.
HARD NUMBERS: Pope returns to Vatican, Canadian PM calls snap election, Trump targets legal entry migrants, South Korean PM reinstated, US auto importers hit the gas, Orlando cops recover swallowed earrings
5: Pope Francis is back home at the Vatican. On Sunday, the 88-year-old pontiff was discharged from hospital, where he has been fighting double pneumonia for five weeks. The pope, who looked frail as he made his first public appearance since Valentine’s Day, has been advised by doctors that he will need to continue to convalesce for the next two months.
37: Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, leader of the Liberal Party, called a snap federal election on Sunday in Ottawa. The move launched a swift, five-week campaign — it will last just 37 days, the minimum duration required by law — in a bid to keep up the Liberals’ current momentum. The party is ahead of the Conservatives in some polls, having come back from a steep deficit just two months ago, but behind by a few points in others.
530,000: Washington has pulled the welcome mat out from under 530,000 Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, and Venezuelans. Migrants who came to the US under President Joe Biden’s legal entry parole program over the past two years learned on Friday that President Donald Trump’s crackdown on immigration will soon be retroactive. As of April 24, they will be stripped of legal status, and the administration is encouraging them to self-report – or face possible arrest and deportation.
7-1: South Korean Prime Minister Han Duck-soo is no longer impeached. The country’s Constitutional Court overturned his impeachment on Monday, reinstating him in a 7-1 ruling. Observers do not see it as a sign that President Yoon Suk Yeol, whose brief imposition of martial law in December sparked these legal matters, will also see his impeachment overturned.
22: Carmakers have thrown their shipments of vehicles and automotive components into high gear in anticipation of the 25% tariffs to be imposed by the Trump administration on April 2 on imports from Mexico and Canada as well as reciprocal tariffs on other US trading partners. Many fear the tariff regime will upend auto supply chains, so manufacturers are sending more vehicles than normal, leading to a 22% year-on-year increase of such shipments from the EU to the US in February — and 14% and 15% increases from Japan and South Korea respectively.
769,500: We’ve all heard of swallowing one’s pride, but one’s crime? Jaythan Gilder, 32, allegedly swallowed two sets of Tiffany & Co. earrings worth $769,500 around the time of his arrest more than two weeks ago on robbery and grand theft charges. Gilder was monitored by detectives at an Orlando hospital until the jewels were, uh, expelled from his system. The earrings, which match the ones taken from an Orlando Tiffany store last month, have been returned to the retailer (and thoroughly cleaned).
Russia's President Vladimir Putin and Belarus' President Alexander Lukashenko take part in a signing ceremony following a meeting of the Supreme State Council of the Union State of Russia and Belarus in Minsk, Belarus, on Dec. 6, 2024.
Viewpoint: With Putin’s protection, is Lukashenko’s reelection in Belarus a foregone conclusion?
Ahead of Sunday’s election in Belarus, there is little doubt that Alexander Lukashenko, Europe’s longest-serving leader, will win a new term in office. After the protests that erupted following the 2020 elections, threatening his grip on power for the first time, a government crackdown supported by Russia has eliminated any opposition to the president.
Yet a new term for the 70-year-old leader, who has complained about health problems, will likely raise questions about potential succession planning in his next term. Regardless of what comes next, Russian President Vladimir Putin, who considers neighboring Belarus a critical part of his country’s sphere of influence, will make sure its interests are protected.
We sat down with Eurasia Group expert Alex Brideau to learn more about the upcoming election.
What do we know about Lukashenko’s true level of support?
Lukashenko has been in power for more than 30 years, ever since he won Belarus’ first and only genuine democratic presidential election, held in 1994 a few years after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Since then, it has been hard to tell just how genuine Lukashenko’s public support is. He has routinely won reelection in votes that were neither free nor fair. Many of his challengers have been arrested for standing against him.
Lukashenko’s reelection in 2020, though, demonstrated that whatever popularity he previously enjoyed had eroded and that his hold on power looked shaky. Public outcry over manipulated results that showed another landslide victory against a credible opposition candidate, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, prompted major demonstrations that threatened Lukashenko’s hold on power for months. Major repression by the security forces and support from Russia allowed him to regain control of the situation.
Is there any chance of a repeat of the 2020 results or unrest?
This election is going to look very different from the anger of five years ago. Belarus’ security services continue to repress the formal opposition. Parties have been banned and their leaders have been arrested or forced to flee the country. Attempts to protest the results will be met with arrests and force, most likely. The regime may hope that holding the election in January instead of August, as happened in 2020, might limit the appetite for demonstrations. As for the election itself, there is little mystery as to who will win. Lukashenko won’t have a serious challenger, instead facing candidates who are considered to be loyal opposition.
What matters with this vote?
Given his age and past statements suggesting he is concerned about his health, there will be at least some question as to whether Lukashenko might consider a succession plan during his new term. Lukashenko has talked about stepping aside before, only to stay firmly in charge. And it’s doubtful that a succession plan would truly lead to him giving up his control. Lukashenko’s control of the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly gives him a way to exert power if he decided he wanted to transfer the presidency to a loyalist.
How do outside powers view the election?
Russia will recognize the election results, allowing it to maintain its influence over Belarus. Lukashenko isn’t exactly liked in Moscow. His leadership has been considered erratic, and he has thumbed his nose at Moscow’s interests at times when it either helped him at home or when he tried (and failed) to cozy up to the West. But he has become even more dependent on Russian economic and military support since 2020, as Western governments imposed heavier sanctions and even restricted air travel from Belarus. Putin’s policies have treated Belarus much the same way he has approached Ukraine, seeing it as an integral part of Russia’s sphere of influence. Russia has used a bilateral “Union State” treaty from 1999 to boost its role in the country. If there were a crisis stemming from the election, Moscow could very well intervene to ensure that its control was intact.
How about the West?
The US and EU members, meanwhile, will not consider the election legitimate. But so far they aren’t saying all that much. Having already imposed a large number of sanctions against the economy and Belarusian leaders both before and after the 2020 crackdown, there is only so much they are able to do to affect Lukashenko’s control.
Edited by Jonathan House, Senior Editor of Eurasia Group.