Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Smoke rises during Israeli strikes amid the Israeli military operation in Deir Al-Balah, in the central Gaza Strip, July 21, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Israeli forces advance into new Gaza area, DRC to ink peace deal with rebels, Chilean crime wave pushes voters rightward
Israel advances for first time into central Gazan refuge city
Israeli ground forces have pushed into Deir al-Balah in central Gaza, an area that the IDF has previously largely avoided because it is believed to be where the remaining Israeli hostages are held. The incursion has raised concern for the safety of the many Gazans who have taken refuge there over the course of the conflict. Israel says it aims to dismantle the remains of Hamas’ infrastructure, but families of the hostages have demanded that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appear before them and the public to clarify the risks to their loved ones.
Democratic Republic of Congo to sign peace pact with rebels
The Democratic Republic of Congo and the Rwanda-backed M23 rebel group have agreed to sign a peace deal by Aug 18, following months of Qatari mediation. The US, which has facilitated separate talks between the Congo and Rwanda, is pushing for peace in the long-running conflict, partly in order to facilitate greater Western investment in the Congo's critical mineral resources. For more background, see our recent piece here.
Crime pushes Chile to the right ahead of election
Deep political polarization is afflicting every region of the world these days, but the trend is especially pronounced in Chile ahead of its November presidential election. Current leftwinger Gabriel Boric must bow out due to term limits, and while polls put Communist candidate Jeanette Jara in first place for now, just behind her is ultraconservative Catholic José Antonio Kast, an open admirer of former Chilean dictator Augusto Pinochet. Given the popularity of several other rightwing candidates, Kast would be the favorite to win a runoff. A key campaign issue: a recent crime wave driven in part by criminal gangs composed of migrants from Venezuela.
Graphic Truth: Japan’s ruling coalition loses majority
Japan’s ruling coalition lost control of the upper house in Sunday’s election, further weakening Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba amid growing domestic pressure and international challenges. To retain its majority, the Liberal Democratic Party and its partner Komeito needed to win 50 seats – they got only 47. This follows the LDP’s worst electoral showing in 15 years in last fall’s Lower House election. Rising inflation and opposition calls for tax cuts resonated with voters, while the far-right Sanseito party gained ground with a nationalist, anti-immigration platform. Despite the setback, Ishiba vowed to stay on, stressing the importance of upcoming US trade talks as Japan faces an August tariff deadline. For a refresher on why Shigeru was in such trouble to begin with, see here.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu followed by National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir walk inside the Israeli parliament, the Knesset, in Jerusalem March 27, 2025.
Netanyahu’s coalition is crumbling
Israel’s ruling coalition is facing its most serious crisis yet. Two of the country’s ultra-Orthodox parties — United Torah Judaism and Shas — announced they are quitting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government over proposed changes to long-standing rules that exempt ultra-Orthodox students from Israel’s military draft. The split is likely to collapse the coalition. The centrist opposition Yesh Atid party has already filed a motion to dissolve the Knesset, Israel’s legislature. A vote on that, set for June 11, is likely to succeed, triggering a general election by November.
The withdrawal of the two parties came in response to a bill introduced by a member of Netanyahu’s Likud party that would curtail military exemptions. The ultra-Orthodox community has largely been exempted from military service since Israel’s founding, but that arrangement is under growing strain as the Gaza war stretches Israel’s manpower, forcing repeated reserve call-ups that have generated increasing public anger at this exemption.
“This issue — ultra-Orthodox conscription — is part of a divide that’s governed Israel for 70 years. It’s not new, but it’s symbolic of the larger cultural war,” says Middle East Institute Scholar Dr. Ilan Peleg.
But this was just the straw that broke the camel’s back. Netanyahu’s coalition has been becoming increasingly fractured as polarization and government dissatisfaction has risen in the country. The prime minister is personally motivated to remain in charge to preserve his legal immunity amid ongoing corruption trials. To do so, he has relied on two key groups to stay in power: ultra-nationalists who want to escalate the war in Gaza beyond what much of the Israeli public is willing to tolerate, and ultra-Orthodox parties who insist on maintaining exemptions from military service — a stance that has generated resentment among some non-Orthodox Israelis, who bear the brunt of the war effort.
With the ultra-Orthodox unlikely to return without a clear legislative fix — and none is forthcoming — the odds of a government collapse are high.
This upheaval raises big questions.
The first is Iran. “The threat posed by Iran’s nuclear program is one of the few unifying issues among Israelis,” says Eurasia Group’s Middle East Director Firas Maksad. “A successful raid that delays Iran’s ability to acquire a nuclear weapon could strengthen Netanyahu’s domestic position.”
But a dramatic move against Iran, without strong US backing — particularly from President Donald Trump, who currently favors diplomacy — would carry major risks.
“Even if it’s possible technically to do it, maybe desired by Israelis,” Peleg explains, “the American veto would be a major factor on the negative side.”
The second is Gaza. Early elections would raise pressure on Netanyahu to secure more hostage releases from Gaza and strike a temporary ceasefire — with growing war fatigue and frustration over hostages likely to weaken Likud at the polls.
If the government collapses and elections are held, the increasingly unpopular Netanyahu could lose his grip on power. He would be challenged by former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, whose newly-registered right-wing party is currently leading in the polls.
Netanyahu, a skilled politician who has held the premiership in several stints since the 1990s, has come back from more than one prediction of his demise. Will this time be different?
Maksad says that while it’s “not impossible that [Netanyahu] could manage to return the premiership… It would be an uphill battle.”
U.S. President Donald Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney meet in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., May 6, 2025.
Friends with (economic) benefits? Carney, Trump talk trade
What does Donald Trump want most from Canada? “Friendship,” he said during his meeting Tuesday with newly elected Prime Minister Mark Carney. But while their IRL encounter was civil enough, don’t expect matching friendship bracelets any time soon.
Trump again taunted Canada about the benefits of being “the 51st state” and shot down Carney’s reply that his country would “never be for sale.” Carney, who won Canada’s election last week after a stunning political comeback fueled largely by Trump’s aggression towards Ottawa, said his administration was committed to boosting investment in Canadian security.
But despite all the posturing, no progress was made in calming a trade war that affects $800 billion in annual commerce. US tariffs of 25% remain in place on steel, aluminum, and cars that do not comply with NAFTA, as do Canadian retaliatory measures of 25%.
Although Trump has stopped short of applying his promised “reciprocal tariffs” on Canada so far, uncertainty about US economic policy has Canadian manufacturers hunting for other markets (they currently send 75% of their exports to the US) while both sides gear up to renegotiate their USMCA trade agreement in 2026.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney speaks in the small hours of April 29, 2025, in Ottawa after his Liberal Party won the general election the previous day.
Mark Carney leads Canada’s Liberals to victory
The Liberals have won the battle to lead Canada. On Monday, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s party completed a stunning turnaround, with projections showing it secured 168 of 343 parliamentary seats.
Just months ago, with Justin Trudeau at the helm, the Liberals — who have been in power for a decade — were underwater in the polls, down as far as 25 points compared to the Conservatives. But Carney, Conservative Pierre Poilievre, and New Democrat Jagmeet Singh all had a mutual opponent in Donald Trump, and a surge in Canadian nationalism helped flip the momentum for the Liberals. The US president’s trade war and threats of using “economic force” to push Canada into becoming the “51st state” fueled much of the “Canada Strong” and “Restore the Promise of Canada” campaign promises of the Liberals and Conservatives, respectively.
A closer race than expected. The Liberals and Conservatives both gained seats compared to the last race in 2021. Led by Poilievre – who notably lost his seat in Ottawa – the Conservatives did better than many predicted, winning roughly 42% of the vote share and at least 144 seats. But the New Democratic Party and Bloc Québécois (which only runs candidates in Quebec) saw their parties lose seats. The NDP secured only seven ridings, down from 25, while the BQ won 23 ridings compared to 32 the last time. Despite losing in his riding, Poilievre has said he will stay on as opposition leader, while Singh has resigned as party leader in the wake of Monday’s crushing results for the NDP.
With the Liberals coming up just shy of the 172 ridings needed for a majority government, they can forge a coalition with the NDP, Bloc Québécois, or the Green Party, or they can go it alone and simply seek votes from other parties on an as-needed basis, issue by issue. Historically, the NDP has collaborated with the Liberals in confidence-and-supply agreements, while the BQ has focused on one-off support for specific issues.
In his victory speech, Carney focused on unity. “Let’s put an end to the division and anger of the past. We are all Canadian and my government will work for and with everyone,” he said.
He also pointed to the job ahead: tackling US-Canada tensions. “When I sit down with President Trump,” Carney said, “it will be to discuss the future economy and security relationship between two sovereign nations.”
“It will be our full knowledge that we have many, many other options to build prosperity for all Canadians.”
Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney during Carney's Liberal Party election campaign tour, in Brampton, Ontario, Canada April 10, 2025.
Canada celebrates tariff reprieve
On Wednesday, Prime Minister Mark Carney called Donald Trump’s 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs “a welcome reprieve for the global economy.”
It was indeed a welcome reprieve for Canada, which appeared to be at risk of being hit with an additional 10% US tariff. As things stand, Canada is subject only to the 25% tariff on goods that are not compliant with existing free trade agreements, and a 10% rate on noncompliant energy and potash exports.
Still, Carney continued to distance Canada from the US, writing in an implicit swipe at Trump that the country must “continue to deepen its relationships with trading partners that share our values, including the free and open exchange of goods, services, and ideas.”
And, on Wednesday night, a 25% Canadian tariff on certain US vehicles and auto parts went into effect, mirroring an earlier Trump levy on the Canadian car industry.
Looking ahead: Carney says Canada’s prime minister, whoever it is after the federal election on April 28, will continue to negotiate with Trump on trade and security.
Marine Tondelier, of Les Ecologistes party, talks to journalists next to colleagues as they leave a meeting at the Elysee Palace in Paris on Dec. 10. They had met with the French president as part of consultations aimed at appointing a new prime minister.
Macron works to end France’s political deadlock
France finds itself unable to form a government and pass a budget because Macron called an election for July that empowered both right- and left-wing hardliners with no political bloc winning a majority. France has no prime minister at the moment because these hardliners ousted Michel Barnier – who held his post for just 90 days – in a no-confidence vote. That’s the shortest tenure for any PM in the history of France’s Fifth Republic, which began in 1958.
For now, France’s Green Party says it won’t join a “national interest” government. The Socialists insist they will only support a left-wing prime minister, a non-starter for conservatives.
FILE PHOTO: Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, with Minister of Foreign Affairs Melanie Joly, and Minister of Public Safety, Democratic Institutions and Intergovernmental Affairs Dominic LeBlanc, takes part in a press conference about the Royal Canadian Mounted Police's investigation into "violent criminal activity in Canada with connections to India", on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada October 14, 2024.
The clock is ticking on Trudeau
When Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s plane touched down in Honolulu on his way back from a summit in Laos last Friday, reporters on the plane learned that a caucus revolt was underway in Canada.
While they were in the air, the Toronto Star had reported that dozens of backbench Liberal MPs were trying to figure out how to make the prime minister step down to make way for a new leader. It is no wonder why. Trudeau has been in power since 2015 but appears determined to lead his party into another election, despite polls that show a huge Conservative advantage.
Monday was Canadian Thanksgiving, so much of the political class spent the weekend exchanging feverish gossip about the behind-the-scenes plotting. Would Trudeau be forced to step down, making way for a new leader? Could the opposition bring him down in the House, sending the country to an election? Who are the plotters? Why aren’t they speaking openly?
On Tuesday, one MP did. Sean Casey, a backbencher from tiny Prince Edward Island, said it is time for Trudeau to go.
“The message that I’ve been getting loud and clear — and more and more strongly as time goes by — is that it is time for [Trudeau] to go. And I agree,” he told the CBC.
On Wednesday, CTV reported that MPs plan to ask Trudeau to step down at a high-stakes caucus meeting next week, and on Thursday, CBC reported four ministers announced they will not seek re-election. It’s not clear how it will end, but signs indicate there is growing pressure for Trudeau to go.