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What We’re Watching: Trump and Musk feud, Russia retaliates, Bangladesh sets elections
Will Trump and Musk kiss and make up?
The extraordinary public feud between US President Donald Trump and his former government efficiency czar Elon Musk continues. Despite late night reports that the two alphas were seeking detente, Trump was reportedly unwilling to engage with Musk again on Friday morning. The potential break-up risks fracturing the MAGA coalition and could affect Trump’s efforts to pass his “big beautiful” spending agenda (which Musk has called “an abomination.”) And if things get really ugly, could Musk actually start a third party?
Russia responds “very strongly”
Russia haspounded Ukraine with airstrikes over the past 24 hours, in response to Kyiv’s recent drone attacks which crippled a third of Russia’s strategic bombers. The ferocious exchange comes after Ukraine-Russia talks earlier this month went nowhere: Kyiv wants an unconditional ceasefire, Russia wants only a partial one. Trump, who spoke with Putin this week and warned that Russia would respond “very strongly”, said yesterday the two sides, already at full-scale war since 2022, may “need to fight for a while.”
Bangladesh to hold elections next spring.
Bangladesh, a South Asian country of 173 million people, will hold national elections in April 2026, the country’s de facto prime minister, Muhammad Yunus, announced on Friday. The textile-exporting nation has been without an elected leader since a student uprising last August forced then-Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to flee to India. The opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party had pushed for an election this December, but Yunus said he wanted to ensure a free and fair electoral process before sending voters to the polls.
Venezuela’s opposition leader on Trump, Maduro, and why the ballot box isn’t the answer this time
This Sunday, Venezuelans will go to the polls in the first nationwide elections since the contested presidential election last July.
But unlike that election, which by all independent accounts President Nicolás Maduro stole, the country’s embattled opposition has decided this time not to participate at all.
Ahead of the vote – which is for local, regional, and legislative positions – I sat down with opposition leader María Corina Machado, who has been in hiding amid a fierce government crackdown since the election last year.
I asked her why she has gambled on boycotting the vote rather than participating, what she thinks of the Trump Administration’s Venezuela policy, and millions of Venezuelans who have fled the country…
Here's the full interview.
Riley Callanan: Hello, Maria. Thank you for speaking with GZERO today ahead of Venezuela's elections this Sunday. I understand that you're in hiding right now, but could you tell me a little bit about what your life has been like since the election last summer? How have you processed both the massive victory of being able to prove that Maduro didn't win, but also the disappointment of him not stepping down?
Maria Corina Machado: Well, Riley, I first of all have to say that I feel so proud of what the Venezuelan people were able to do. It was a huge victory and most people thought it was impossible. We were able to build a movement of over 1 million volunteers that were able to secure the tall sheets in less than 24 hours under fierce persecution to prove that we won by a landslide.
After Maduro was defeated, he accused me of terrorism. He said that I would have to spend the rest of my life in prison. Every single coordinator involved in directing these huge processes are either in exile, jail, or in hiding. And that's what I decided to do. It was almost 10 months ago. And to be honest, it hasn't been easy. You're never prepared to be in absolute isolation.
But fortunately, I've had the possibility to work without stopping in order to maintain the strength, the pressure, and even scale up [our effort] so that we will finally, as I have no doubt, make the popular sovereignty of the Venezuelan people be respected.
Callanan: Do you think that Maduro's regime is at risk of losing power on Sunday?
Machado: Well, look, Sunday is not an election and it has nothing to do with Maduro getting more power in the country. It's going to be a huge defeat because people will not participate, and will not go. And I want to make this very clear. We are under not a conventional dictatorship, but a criminal structure that uses these kinds of processes to try to whitewash their faces. In this process, only those individuals that the regime allows are able to participate as candidates. They have completely changed the rules and violated the laws regarding who votes and where they vote. So in this case, a massive boycott will leave the regime alone and even further weaken what they have left of support. That I insist is only a few top brass individuals and financial enablers.
Callanan: Tell me a little bit more about that. After pulling off such a massive organizational feat in the presidential election, how did you decide to use your power as the opposition leader to call for a boycott? How'd you decide that abstention was the best route forward for the opposition at this point?
Machado: Because we've already proven where the power is, we've already shown where the people are. That happened on July 28th, and everybody knows it. They never expected that we had such a strong organization or that we could prove the results.
So once that happened, they decided to cut short any possibility of a genuine electoral process—it was over. Our concern, our mandate, our duty right now is to ensure that result is respected.
In that context, we need to evaluate every action the regime takes in terms of whether it facilitates or accelerates the transition to democracy and Maduro’s exit from power, or whether it stabilizes the regime. And in this case, it is clear to the Venezuelan people that this maneuver by the regime is designed to help them stabilize.
So we’re going to do exactly what the country needs—and certainly, we want to vote in truly free and fair elections. That’s what we’re fighting for—not this operation designed by the regime.
Callanan: I know you've also called on the international community to pressure Venezuela to move toward democracy. Specifically regarding the US, have you been able to make any inroads with the Trump administration? I know you appeared on Donald Trump Jr.'s podcast a few months ago. What are your thoughts on Donald Trump's current policy toward Venezuela?
Machado: Well, I have to say that I’m very grateful to the administration and to President Trump for his position on Venezuela. It has been unwavering support, along with that of Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Under Secretary of State Christopher Landau. They have been very clear in their stance. I also have to acknowledge members of Congress — senators, congressmen, and congresswomen — who understand that the regime in Venezuela represents an ongoing threat, one that is already destabilizing the region and endangering both hemispheric and US national security. We are very grateful to President Trump for the decisions he has made in this regard.
Callanan: On the other hand, hundreds of Venezuelans have been deported to El Salvador to some of the harshest prisons in the region. That number is likely to increase now that the Supreme Court, on Monday, lifted deportation protections for 350,000 Venezuelans. What are your thoughts on the Trump administration’s policy regarding deportations?
Machado: Look, I’ve been very clear—and members of the administration are well aware of my position. Venezuelans who have left our country have been forced to do so by the regime—not only because it has destroyed and impoverished our population, but because anyone who thinks differently is persecuted. Almost all of those who have fled are good, hardworking, honest, family-loving people. And you know what? They want to come back — but they want to return to freedom.
The best way to solve the migration crisis stemming from Venezuela involves a broad international effort — not just from the United States, but also from many countries in Latin America that are under similar pressure. We have a third of our population living abroad. Imagine if a third of Americans had to leave their country — what would that mean? It’s devastating. We want our families back, we want our children back. But to make that happen, we need a transition that offers opportunity and safety for them at home.
So I insist: the only way to solve this immigration problem is at the source — not at the border. That means a transition to democracy in Venezuela. And that’s why we are asking our allies to help us.
- Venezuela's opposition leader María Corina Machado says Maduro's days are numbered ›
- Meet María Corina Machado, the woman who scares Venezuela's dictator ›
- Is Venezuela’s election going to be too lopsided to steal? ›
- Who actually won in Venezuela? ›
- Opposition leader flees Venezuela, Argentina heads to ICC ›
How will the Trump presidency influence elections in Europe?
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Stockholm, Sweden.
How do you believe that the Trump presidency will influence elections in Europe?
Well, of course we don't know. But what we've seen during the last week with important elections in Canada and Australia, not Europe, but fairly similar in other ways, is that the Trump factor has been very important. It has boosted the incumbent governments. It has boosted the center-left. It has boosted those who are seen as standing up to American pressure, and thus produced results both in Canada, primarily in Canada, but also in Australia. Very different from what practically everyone expected a couple of months ago.
Europe, different place. But still we have two important elections coming up, within slightly more than 10 days. We have the first round of the presidential election in Poland. That's very important for the future possibilities of the Tusk government to continue reforming that particular country. And we have the second round of the presidential election in Romania. An important country often forgotten. But there of course, we had gross interference from Russia and TikTok, and a candidate was banned. In both of these cases, we see the Trump presidency acting. They received, in the White House the other day, the opposition candidate. The extreme right nationalist opposition candidate the other day. And they've been making distinct noises in favor of the same political alternative in Romania. Will this backfire in the way it did in Canada, Australia? Remains to be seen. Very important elections both of them. Watch this space.
10 elections to watch in 2025
This time last year, we had you buckle up for the world’s most intense year of democracy in action, with more than 65 countries holding elections involving at least 4.2 billion people — roughly half of the world’s adult population. As we now know, many of those voters turned against incumbents in 2024 — from the United Kingdom and the United States to Botswana, Japan, and South Korea, just to name a handful.
Now, we’re spotlighting the 10 most consequential elections of 2025. While it will be a less dramatic year for democracy compared to 2024, there are important themes to track as many of the countries struggle amid increasing political polarization, anti-establishment sentiment, and economic challenges.
Here are the 10 elections to watch in 2025:
1. Belarus – Jan. 26
Voters will head to the polls in Belarus to elect a president in January. The election will be neither free nor fair. The country’s opposition warns that the election “will be an exercise in ‘self-reappointment’ of [Aleksander] Lukashenko and a staged attempt to legitimize his continued rule without genuine competition.” That’s also the view in Europe and the United States.
The main question hanging over this vote is whether it will produce mass protests similar to those that followed the country’s last sham presidential election in 2020. Members of the European Parliamentcharge that, since 2020, “Tens of thousands of peaceful protesters have been arrested and nearly 1,300 political prisoners, including opposition political figures, are still kept in Belarusian detention facilities.” Tens of thousands more have been forced to flee the country.
Though Lukashenko’s government has not sent troops into Ukraine, his government has allowed Russia to use its territory as a staging ground for attacks on Ukraine since the first day of the war in February 2022. Any election-related instability in Belarus would worry not only Lukashenko but Vladimir Putin as well.
2. Germany – Feb. 23
On Nov. 6, deep ideological differences over economic reform broke up Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s three-party coalition government, a development that allowed Germany, a country in economic crisis, to move up elections from September 2025 to February. A key question is whether the vote will produce a winner with a strong enough mandate to make the tough political choices needed to restore vitality to Europe’s largest economy.
But the thorny subject of immigration also hangs over the scene, especially after a Saudi Arabian national carried out a deadly mid-December terror attack on a Christmas market in Magdeburg.
The far-right Alternative for Germany party has surged in recent years with an anti-immigration platform, and now polls at nearly 20%, ahead of Scholz’s Social Democrats, and second only to the conservative Christian Democratic Union. Elon Musk’s endorsement could well boost the party further.
Scholz will lead a caretaker government until the Bundestag, Germany’s parliament, elects a new chancellor in April or May. If the CDU maintains its lead, party chief Friedrich Merz will probably be the next chancellor.
But once the votes are counted, can the CDU form a strong enough governing coalition to maintain its political standing in the face of populist attacks from non-traditional parties? If, like Scholz’s coalition, Merz needs two parties to join, he’ll face the same internal divisions that crippled Scholz from the beginning of his term in December 2021. And if the AfD and the far-left Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht can win more than one-third of Bundestag seats, together they can threaten a new bid to allow the German government to spend more money.
3. Australia — before May
This year, Australians will go to the polls for the first time since 2022, when the Labor Party ended nine years of dominance by the conservative Liberal Party. While in power, Labor has passed major climate legislation, deftly walked the line of preserving Australia’s deep economic ties to China while pushing back on Beijing’s regional assertiveness, and imposed a landmark, and popular, social media ban for minors.
But none of that is the main issue for Australians, which is the economy. And here the Labor Party has struggled, earning terrible marks for rising housing costs, a top concern for more than 90% of voters, according to one industry poll. A flurry of housing legislation in recent months has been too little, too late. The bad vibes extend to wage growth too, even though salaries have grown faster than inflation for the past year.
Neither Prime Minister Anthony Albanese nor his main opponent, Liberal Party leader Peter Dutton, is well-liked, meaning Australians are choosing between unpopular options. Whoever wins could easily wind up with a minority government, leaving Australians with a weak government that may be challenged to address big problems.
4. The Philippines — May 12
The last two years have seen a radical redirection of Manila’s foreign policy as President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. — the son of the strongman by the same name who ruled the archipelago from 1965-1986 — moves away from China and toward its traditional ally, the US. But this shift has caused a major rift with Marcos’ predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte, and it’s making the upcoming midterm election look like a dynastic knife fight.
Duterte’s daughter, Sara Duterte, is Marcos’ vice president, and relations between the two are frosty to say the least. During a November speech, she said, “This country is going to hell because we are led by a person who doesn’t know how to be a president and who is a liar,” and then addressed alleged threats to her life by seeming to suggest that she’d arrange retaliatory assassinations of her own.
She’s denied that her comments represent a threat, but she now faces three impeachment complaints — over the threats, alleged misuse of funds, and violating the constitution.
And it gets even juicier. Rodrigo Duterte himself is running for mayor of Davao City, the largest metropolis in the south, where he held office for over 20 years. It’s not a coincidence: His son is the sitting mayor there, and the hope is that having his name on the ballot will help turn out his base to fill the open senate and house seats with Duterte loyalists.
That would allow the clan to check Marcos’ actions in the second half of his term and set Sara up for a run at the top job in 2028. Marcos will be term-limited by then … but it’s rumored that his cousin, the house speaker, will succeed him.
In short, it’s like “Game of Thrones” but with better weather.
5. Bolivia – Aug. 17
Things have been … tense in the landlocked Andean state this year, thanks to a farcical, poorly organized coup attempt against sitting President Luis Arce and allegations of an assassination attempt on his mentor-turned-archrival, former President Evo Morales. Their rivalry is compounding an uncertain economic future in South America’s poorest country, which has seen its once-booming natural gas industry go belly up.
Citizens have been demonstrating against unaffordable fuel and energy prices for months, but they’re getting little help from the authorities, who are busy weaponizing the justice system against political rivals and maneuvering to control the left-wing Movement for Socialism party that dominates Bolivian politics.
Arce scored a key advantage in that fight when Bolivia’s constitutional court ruled in late 2024 that Morales was ineligible to run — but don’t count him out. Bolivia’s court system is deeply politicized, and Morales could well find a way back onto the ballot. We’re watching for the possibility that he runs as vice president with Senate leader Andrónico Rodríguez at the top of the ticket.
We’re also watching Manfred Reyes Villa, a conservative who may be able to use the split on the left to advance his own candidacy.
6. Argentina – Oct. 26
Has the pain been worth it? That, in many ways, is the most basic question on the ballot as Argentina heads into midterm elections in October for half the lower house and a third of the senate.
The “pain,” of course, is anarcho-capitalist President Javier Milei’s radical “chainsaw” policy of gutting public spending and regulations to address decades of economic mismanagement, triple-digit inflation, and chronic debt crises.
So far, Milei has proven many of the haters wrong. The economy, Latin America’s third largest, emerged from recession in late 2024. Inflation has fallen from 25% per month to less than 3%. Economists expect the economy to grow as much as 5% in 2025.
But, at the same time, the share of Argentines living in poverty has soared by more than 10 percentage points, to 53%, since he took office. There have been large protests against his spending cuts. And he has yet to take some big, and potentially painful, steps such as scrapping capital controls, which could stoke inflation again.
Milei’s small, libertarian party, La Libertad Avanza (“Liberty Advances”), currently lacks a majority in both houses, but he hopes to change that and is pleading for voters to make a “big rumble in the elections.”Heading into the new year, La Libertad Avanza was the clear front-runner in polls, with 46% saying they were ready to cast a ballot for MIlei’s party, compared to just 14% for the traditional left-wing Peronist party and 7% for the establishment right.
7. Czech Republic – before October
The ANO party of populist billionaire Andrej Babiš, who has clashed with the EU and is skeptical of support for Ukraine, looks set for a big comeback in this fall’s parliamentary elections amid broader malaise and dissatisfaction with the current center-right coalition of PM Petr Fiala.
Babiš was prime minister from 2017-2021, and in 2023 he lost the presidential election by nearly 20 points to Petr Pavel, a former NATO general who strongly backs Ukraine.
But with the current governing coalition in turmoil and “Ukraine fatigue” growing ahead of a possible push by US President-elect Donald Trump to end the war there, Czechs are in the mood for change again.
A stunning recent poll showed fewer than half of Czechs now think life has improved since the fall of communism in 1989. ANO capitalized on that disillusionment in fall 2024 regional and Senate ballots, ringing up big results even with abysmal turnout.
Heading into 2025, polls show ANO with 30% support against the governing coalition’s 20%. If Babiš wins, he would (re)join a Central European eurosceptic populist axis featuring Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and Slovakia’s populist PM Robert Fico.
8. Tanzania – October 2025
President Samia Suluhu Hassan is expected to win reelection under the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), which has held power for six decades. She will likely face veteran politician Tundu Lissu, the current chairperson of Chadema, Tanzania’s main opposition party.
Hassan will likely tout her political reforms, including reversing some of the most authoritarian policies of her predecessor, John Magufuli, who banned political rallies, censored the media, and clamped down on opposition parties. That has empowered Hassan’s political opponents, though a shadow of the old ways persists: earlier this year two Chadema politicianswere abducted and tortured, and one of them was murdered. Three more Chadema politicianswere killed in connection with local elections in November.
Who’s watching this election? Likely China. Tanzania is the fifth-largest state in Africa, and China has been its maintrading partner for eight years. China has also funded several megaprojects, including a recently announced railway revitalization with Zambia. The CCP has a close relationship with Tanzania’s ruling party, and China runs a leadership school outside Dar Es Salaam that counsels African politicians on how to replicate China’s authoritarian model and cement one-party rule — like the CCM’s 60-year reign — in their countries.
9. Canada – before Oct. 25
Canadian law requires that its next federal election be held by Oct. 25, 2025, but it could come far sooner.
The Liberals, in power since 2015, lost their formal support from the left-leaning New Democratic Party last September, leaving them vulnerable to a no-confidence vote. On Dec. 20, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh announced he would trigger such a vote at the earliest opportunity – but the House of Commons is in recess until Jan. 27, 2025. That prompted Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre to ask Canada’s titular head of state, Governor General Mary Simon, to bring the House back earlier – a constitutional nonstarter, as she only takes counsel from the prime minister. The Conservatives desperately want an election, as they hold a 23-point lead in the polls.
The drama followed the shock resignation of Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland on Dec. 16, which triggered calls for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation from both inside and outside his party. The calls multiplied over the ensuing days, and Trudeau is now reportedly considering his future, though he has said he is not resigning over the holiday break. Should he step down, a leadership contest and prorogation of the House of Commons would follow, meaning that an election would likely happen before October.
The main issues are inflation, immigration, and a housing shortage, overlaid with anxiety about the incoming Trump administration’s promise of up to 25% tariffs on Canadian exports to the US. Should Trudeau remain leader, many also see the vote as a referendum on his tenure — at a time when only 19% of voters think he should stay on.
10. Chile – Nov. 16
South America’s most prosperous economy has traveled a rough political road the last few years, with two consecutive efforts to reform the constitution going down in flames — and taking ruling President Gabriel Boric with them.
The young reformer has failed to advance the significant changes he promised and is prohibited constitutionally from serving another consecutive term.
But rather than major constitutional change, Chileans are eager for economic growth and a serious attempt to tackle growing drug crime and violence, which have surged in part due to the arrival of organized crime gangs from Venezuela.
We’re a long way off from the ballots, but two candidates are out ahead: former Labor Minister Evelyn Matthei, from the right-wing Independent Democratic Union, and the far-right populist José Antonio Kast. Matthei comes from a well-known political family in Santiago and has come close to the top job before. Unfortunately for her, voters around the world seem to be in an anti-establishment mood.
Kast, on the other hand, is cast in a more radical mold. His Republican party broke away from Matthei’s in 2018, in part because they wanted to be less critical of former dictator Gen. Augusto Pinochet. Kast, an ultra-conservative Catholic and nationalist who has proposed border trenches to stop illegal immigration, lost to Borić in the last election but is poised for a strong run again.
All of that leaves the left in the lurch, but former President Michelle Bachelet — still the country’s single most popular politician — could yet throw her hat in the ring to make things interesting.
Why is TikTok being investigated by the EU over Romania's elections?
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Northern Italy.
Why is the EU investigating TikTok over the elections in Romania?
Well in the first round of the Romanian presidential elections, there were suddenly, just days before the election, over 25,000 TikTok accounts that suddenly appeared. And they seemed to be supporting, very heavily, the rather sudden far-right candidate who had quite a result in that particular election that has subsequently been annulled. So it makes sense to investigate what really happened and who was behind it.
What is the new French prime minister doing in order to resolve the political crisis of the country?
Early days. He hasn't even presented his government as of yet. But I would guess that he will try to have a dialogue both with the elements of the moderate left and the moderate right to see if he can get a budget through. He is an experienced operator on the French political scene. Perhaps less determined in terms of policies than Michel Barnier was, but let's see. I think he'll present his policy program by mid-January, and there we'll be able to judge somewhat more clearly what prospects he has.
- In historic first, Romania annuls election over claims of TikTok interference ›
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- What France's government collapse means for Macron and Europe ›
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol delivers an address to the nation at the Presidential Office in Seoul, South Korea, December 12, 2024.
South Korean president’s removal slows down over court vacancies
On Tuesday, the floor leader for South Korea’s newly-impeached President Yoon Suk-yeol’s party said it would be inappropriate to fill vacancies on the constitutional court with the powers of an acting president, setting up a fight aimed at slow-rolling Yoon’s final removal from office.
Wait, how is Yoon impeached but not gone? It’s a two-step process. The National Assembly was able to clear the two-thirds supermajority to impeach Yoon on Saturday, and he was immediately suspended from office. Now at least six justices on the constitutional court need to approve the legality of the impeachment — and this isn’t a given. The court overturned the much more controversial impeachment of former President Roh Moo-hyun in 2004. Once that hurdle is cleared, Yoon is gone for good, and a sixty day clock starts ticking down to fresh elections.
There’s just one problem. Three of the court’s nine seats are vacant, meaning the entire bench would need to vote unanimously to remove Yoon. Even though the facts are pretty stacked against Yoon, just one justice could theoretically put him back in office, which is why the liberal opposition wants to fill the three seats.
Ideally, as quickly as possible, because their leader, and presumptive presidential candidate, Lee Jae-myung is in legal hot water of his own. He was convicted of violating election laws and handed a one-year suspended sentence in November, which could prevent him from running for president — if the Supreme Court upholds the ruling.
Eurasia Group’s Jeremy Chan says the opposition “recognizes that the longer this drags out, the greater the chances that the Supreme Court will have time to rule on Lee’s conviction,” and possibly keep him out of the race. We’re watching how acting president Han Duck-soo handles the vacancies, as well as how the criminal case against Yoon and his collaborators proceeds.
Participants make their way past the Notre-Dame Cathedral as they attend the 13th edition of the stand up Nautic Paddle race on the river Seine in Paris, France, December 1, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Notre Dame’s stones gleam after cleaning, Trump threatens yuge tariffs, Iceland gets new gov, Vaccine promises AIDS end
42,000: Workers restoring Paris’ Notre Dame Cathedral after the fire that ravaged it five years ago had to clean 42,000 square meters of stone. They used special techniques to minimize damage to the original masonry in the process and the results are stunning: See it for yourself: The medieval cathedral reopens to the public on Dec. 8.
100: President-elect Donald Trump on Saturday threatened to impose 100% tariffs on goods imported from BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, as well Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the UAE), should the organization try to issue its own currency or displace the dollar’s place in world trade. It’s an odd threat, as some members – namely Russia and Iran – are already so heavily sanctioned that trade with the US is non-existent, while others – Brazil, Egypt, and the UAE – are major US allies.
15: Iceland’s Social Democrats gained 15 seats in the Althing – one of the world’s oldest parliaments – and will unseat the ruling conservatives after seven years of power following Saturday’s snap election. It’s yet another example of the anti-establishment trend few democracies seem able to escape in this election-studded year.
2: A twice-yearly vaccine against HIV/AIDS has proven 100% effective against contracting the virus, which a UN report for World AIDS Day on Sunday called a “historic crossroads” in the fight to end the epidemic. Generic versions of the drug will be available in 120 low-income countries, mostly in Africa and Asia, but the manufacturer has not approved generic patents for Latin America, which may represent a crucial weak spot in distribution.A general view of the German lower house of parliament, in Berlin, Germany.
Germany to hold early elections
Under a plan agreed by Chancellor Olaf Scholz and the opposition, Europe’s largest economy is now headed toward early elections in February.
The move comes after weeks of fraying ties among the so-called “traffic light” coalition, an unwieldy tie-up of Scholz’s center-left Social Democrats (red), the business-friendly Free Democrats (yellow), and the environment-oriented Greens (you guessed it).
The final straw, last week, was a spat over Germany’s budget. Scholz and the Greens wanted to relax Germany’s strict fiscal rules to create room to invest in infrastructure, defense, and Ukraine aid. The Free Democrats rejected that and proposed a more austerity-oriented budget of their own. Scholz, in turn, sacked Free Democrat Finance Minister Christian Lindner, which led to his party leaving the governing coalition altogether.
What happens now: Under the current deal, Scholz will hold a confidence vote in his government in mid-December, which – assuming he loses as expected – will pave the way for February elections, which the parties want to hold on Feb. 23, 2025.
At the moment, polls show the opposition Christian Democratic Union as the clear frontrunner with 32% support, twice that of Scholz’s Social Democrats. The far-right Alternative For Germany polls second, at 17%.