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Smoke rises from the White House parliament building as Yeltsinist troops storm the Russian parliament October 4, 1993.
Hard Numbers: Yeltsin’s defense/undermining of “democracy,” Gaetz's ouster bid, Pandas’ exodus from the US, Bangladesh’s dengue crisis, UK’s minimum wage boost
2: Rep. Matt Gaetz, a hardline Republican, launched a bid late Monday to oust House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. The two men have been at odds for months , and Gaetz vowed to move against the Speaker after he passed a stopgap spending bill over the weekend, with help from Democrats, to avoid a government shutdown. The House has two days to vote on the measure.
0: For the first time in half a century, there will soon be zero panda bears in the United States. In 1972, as part of Beijing’s “Panda Diplomacy,” Mao Zedong gifted two of the famously frolicsome bears to the US as part of President Richard Nixon’s historic opening to China. (A coup of zoological diplomacy: The US sent two “musk oxen” in return.) Ever since, US zoos have periodically renewed contracts with Beijing to keep pandas, which are native to China. Now all remaining agreements will lapse by the end of next year.
11: The UK will raise the national minimum wage to £11 per hour (up from £10.42), beginning next April. The move is meant to combat a cost of living crisis brought on by the combination of Brexit, the pandemic, and the war in Ukraine. The government says about 2 million people will enjoy the higher pay. The minimum wage was last bumped up in April 2023.
1,000: More than 1,000 people in Bangladesh have died of dengue fever this year in the southeast Asian nation’s worst outbreak on record. Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral illness found in many tropical and subtropical regions. The WHO warned earlier this year that global reported cases could hit record highs, driven in part by global warming — which prolongs breeding seasons for mosquitos — as well as recurrent weather patterns like El Niño.
Bangladesh PM Sheikh Hasina attends a joint press remarks with Japanese counterpart Fumio Kishida (not pictured) in Tokyo.
Blinken threatens, Bangladesh promises
In response to direct pressure from the US, Bangladesh has vowed to hold free and fair elections by January 2024. The announcement came after US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Thursday threatened to deny US visas for Bangladeshi officials who obstruct the democratic process.
The background:
Bangladesh, which has close ties to both India and China, is seen as a US ally, but Washington has grown increasingly concerned about the undemocratic behavior of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.
Her Awami League Party won general elections in 2014 and 2018, but observers said she had skewed the playing field against the opposition. Hasina herself, meanwhile, has been accused of cracking down on the media and
online speech
, while jailing members and supporters of her rival Bangladesh National Party.
And while the country has been praised for taking in more than 700,000 Rohingya refugees from neighboring Myanmar, human rights groups say abuses have grown more common since Hasina came to power in 2009. The Biden Administration, for its part, pointedly declined to invite Hasina to its “democracy summit” last year.
A chart comparing countries with the largest Muslim populations with corresponding food inflation rates.
The Graphic Truth: Ramadan celebrations now cost more
The holy month of Ramadan has begun for the world's roughly 1.9 billion Muslims. But for many, the joyous feasting with family before and after the Ramadan fast will be overshadowed by inflated food prices thanks to Russia’s war in Ukraine. Majority-Muslim populations in Asia and the Middle East, where many countries rely on food imports, will feel the economic pinch most. We take a look at countries with the largest Muslim populations and their corresponding food inflation rates.
Bangladesh's PM Sheikh Hasina speaks with reporters during the 72nd UN General Assembly in New York.
In Bangladesh, a powerful premiership is transforming into a brutal dictatorship
The world’s longest-ruling female leader is facing the most serious threat to her power in years.
Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who has run Bangladesh since 2009 and has been lauded as the Iron Lady of South Asia for her firm decision-making and economic prowess, faces a united opposition, an economic downturn , and international pressure against her regime’s deteriorating human rights record as fresh protests have swelled in the country over the past few days.
How did we get here? Having ruled one of South Asia’s most dynamic economies for almost 20 of its 51 years of independence (she had an earlier stint as PM in the 1990s too), Hasina is accused of increasing attacks on the political opposition as well as cracking down on civil society. The head of the largest opposition party has been detained for corruption, leaders of the biggest religious party have been executed , and scores of dissidents have vanished, triggering US sanctions against Dhaka.
Even though elections are slated for Jan. 2024, the opposition is demanding Hasina step down and let a caretaker government hold fresh elections. Previous elections held under her watch — like the one which gave her a third consecutive term in 2018 — were marred by irregularities, violence, voter intimidation, and opposition boycotts. And as she faces a fresh wave of protests to preempt her regime’s handling of the next elections, Hasina is responding with force, continuing to arrest opposition leaders and dissidents.
The PM, however, had been able to claim credit for strengthening the economy. Once rated a “ basket case ” by Henry Kissinger, Bangladesh — one of the world's most densely populated countries, with 170 million living in an area slightly smaller than the US state of Iowa — emerged as an economic success story . It transformed itself into a garment manufacturing and export hub with the highest GDP per capita across South Asia.
But the economy is now in trouble. High energy prices triggered by the Russia-Ukraine war have reduced export orders, and the local currency has devalued. Foreign exchange reserves have dwindled by almost half to $26 billion in just one year.
The government has responded by hiking fuel prices , which in turn have raised food prices, creating a cost of living crisis. Opposition parties, long weakened by a strong Hasina and a once buoyant economy, have channeled public anger against increased prices into growing protests against the PM.
Still, is Hasina going to go? Good question.
“The opposition has reawakened, and these multiple protests show a level of sustained strength,” says Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center in Washington, DC. “But I would strongly caution against talk of an early exit for Hasina.”
Given her track record, Kugelman projects that Hasina is likely to crack down even harder when faced with such resistance. For now, the unrest is partisan, not comprising mass protests, with those on the streets being mostly members or close supporters of opposition parties, not necessarily suggesting a broader anti-government movement.
Also, he adds, Hasina’s Awami League still enjoys high levels of public support, especially for its earlier successes on the economic front and on reducing terrorism risks.
But the area to watch in the coming months is, again, the economy. “If it worsens and the government struggles to ease a growing economic crisis, then the Awami League runs the risk of seeing the emergence of a mass movement. But we’re not there yet, not even close,” says Kugelman.
Under Hasina, Bangladesh has skillfully walked the diplomat tightrope. It has balanced the rivalries between India and China as well as China and the US and even the US and Russia. Yet the PM seems to be slipping when it comes to controlling the police and handling domestic human rights. Her security forces and laws have targeted the indigenous population , civil dissidents , the press , and even ordinary netizens and the Rohingya refugees from neighboring Myanmar.
For now, Hasina’s plan looks likely to push through toward the vote, cracking down if necessary. But as the year goes on, the operative question is a simple one.
Will the election be free and fair? “I wouldn’t count on it,” Kugelman says.
Given that the 2018 vote went through despite international observers crying foul over rigging, that the opposition National Party remains divided about who will lead it, and that regional heavyweights India and China still support the regime, it’s all but assured that South Asia’s Iron Lady will keep gunning for her detractors as she goes for a fourth consecutive term — whether she’s duly elected or not.Hard Numbers: More good food news, runaway Argentine inflation, Ivorian pardon, Bangladesh fuel price hike
170,000: Four more ships carrying almost 170,000 metric tons of grain left Ukraine's Black Sea ports on Sunday, the same day the first foreign-flagged vessel arrived there since the Russian invasion in February. More welcome news for mitigating the global food crisis, although it'll take months to reach pre-war export levels.
90.2: Analysts now predict that Argentina's inflation will reach a whopping 90.2% this year, 16.2 percentage points higher than the previous estimate. Getting inflation under control is priority no. 1 for Sergio Massa, the newly minted " super minister " in charge of saving the economy.
20: Ivory Coast President Alassane Ouattara pardoned his predecessor Laurent Gbagbo, sentenced in 2018 to 20 years in prison for stoking political turmoil that led to a brief civil war in 2011. Gbagbo returned from exile a year ago after the ICC acquitted him of war crimes during the same period.
50: Bangladesh has raised the price of fuel by 50%, its largest-ever hike. The government needs to cut back on subsidies in order to get a big IMF loan, but the move is already triggering mass protests and will likely result in higher inflation.Police detain a man on the 33rd anniversary of the crackdown on pro-democracy demonstrations at Beijing's Tiananmen Square in 1989, in Hong Kong, China.
Hard Numbers: Hong Kongers arrested, British cucumber shortage, Japan’s dwindling population, deadly blaze in Bangladesh
6: Six Hong Kongers were arrested over the weekend for publicly marking the 33rd anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre. Beijing bans commemorating the event on the mainland, but Hong Kong was, until recently, one of a few Chinese territories where it was allowed. That changed in 2020, when Beijing imposed a draconian national security law on the city.
60: The UK could yield up to 60% less in cucumber and sweet pepper crops this year because many glass houses have opted to plant less due to surging energy costs and labor shortages. Even before the pandemic and the war in Ukraine disrupted global supply chains and rocked energy prices, British farmers were struggling with an acute labor shortage linked to Brexit.
628,205: Japan recorded its lowest number of births in more than a century, recording a population decline last year of 628,205 , a 3.5% drop from the previous year. This is in part explained by Japan’s aging population: around one third of Japanese residents are over the age of 65.
49: At least 49 people were killed on Sunday and scores more injured when a fire broke out at a storage depot near the port city of Chittagong in southeast Bangladesh. The blaze – believed to have been caused by improperly stored chemicals – is the latest in a deadly spate of similar incidents attributed to the country’s poor safety and labor regulations.
In El Salvador, security forces continue with the massive arrests of alleged gang members, during an operation called "war against the gangs."
Hard Numbers: Bukele goes after gangs, Bangladeshis sentenced to death, NZ's inflation woes, COVID death toll milestone
4: Four people have been sentenced to death in Bangladesh for the 2004 murder of writer Humayun Azad. Azad was killed by members of Jama’atul Mujahideen, a terrorist group, in the first of several public murders of academics and writers over the past decade. The country’s justice system is often criticized for, as in this case, taking years to process case s.
20: On Wednesday, New Zealand’s central bank lifted its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point , its fourth consecutive hike to address rising inflation. The bank’s move was its biggest single hike in 20 years, but some analysts say another increase is possible in May.
500,000,000: The world has now seen more than 500 million cases of COVID-19, according to Johns Hopkins research . The death toll has topped 6 million. US public health expert Dr. Anthony Fauci has expressed hope that Congress will pass a $10 billion Covid relief bill, and he’s recommending that Americans over 50 get their fourth COVID shot.What We're Watching: Bangladesh religious violence, Ecuadorian drug emergency, Lebanese to vote, Russia ditches NATO
Religious tension rising in Bangladesh: Clashes between Hindus and Muslims in Bangladesh have surged over the past week, leaving at least four people dead. After an image was posted on Facebook showing the Quran at the feet of a statue at a Hindu temple, Muslims burned Hindu-owned homes and attacked their holy sites. Both sides have taken to the street in protest, with Hindus saying that they have been prevented from celebrating Durga Puja, the largest Hindu festival in the country. Such acts of sectarian violence are not uncommon in Bangladesh, a majority-Muslim country where Hindus account for nine percent of the population. Indeed, as Eurasia Group's Kevin Allison recently warned , unverified social media content stoking inter-ethnic conflict is a massive problem throughout South Asia, where for many people Facebook is synonymous with the internet.
Ecuador's state of emergency… again: Ecuador's President Guillermo Lasso has declared a nationwide state of emergency to deal with surging crime fueled in large part by drug trafficking. The measure allows the government to limit freedom of movement and assembly, and gives the military authority to patrol the streets. This comes less than a month since Lasso, a pro-business social conservative elected in February, declared another state of emergency after a gang war inside a jail in the port city of Guayaquil killed more than 100 people. The oil-rich Andean nation of 17 million people has become a transit country for Colombian and Peruvian cocaine where Mexican drug cartels are becoming more influential. The state of emergency might limit burglaries, auto thefts and homicides in the short term, but what happens when it's lifted?
Will Lebanese elections matter? Less than a week since Lebanon saw some of its worst sectarian street violence in years, its parliament voted to hold new legislative elections on March 27, two months earlier than planned. (However, a simultaneous vote on introducing female quotas in parliament failed to pass.) It'll be the first popular vote since 2019, when mass protests over political corruption and economic crisis rocked the country. The pressure is now on for Najib Mikati — who became interim prime minister in July after months of political deadlock — to secure a financial recovery package from the IMF that would pave the way for more international investment and aid as the country plunges further into one of the worst economic catastrophes in modern history. Talks with the IMF will be tough because the government and banks aren't willing to implement the public sector reforms or debt restructuring initiatives that the Fund wants. Indeed, as sectarian tensions linger and many kleptocrats retain prominent roles in Lebanese political life, the upcoming election may not move the needle at all.