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Indian paramilitary soldiers patrol along a road in Srinagar, Jammu and Kashmir, on April 29, 2025.
India and Pakistan inch toward a major clash
Nerves are fraught throughout Pakistan after authorities said Wednesday they have “credible intelligence” that India plans to launch military strikes on its soil by Friday, fueling fears of an outright clash between the two nuclear-armed archrivals. Troops from both sides have been exchanging fire in the disputed territory of Kashmir since a terrorist attack in the Indian-controlled section killed 26 civilians last Tuesday. Both China and the US are calling for restraint.
Tensions are spiraling rapidly. India closed its airspace to Pakistan on Wednesday and ordered nearly all Pakistani citizens to leave the country last week. Pakistan – while denying any involvement in the attacks – also canceled visas last week for most Indian citizens in retaliation. The scenes of rapid flight evoked painful memories of the 1947 Partition when Hindus in Pakistan and Muslims in India fled bloody ethnic massacres in the newly formed nations.
How bad could it get? The two countries have had two major wars, in 1965 and 1971, both of which India won, in the latter case quite decisively. In the ensuing decades, however, India has utterly outstripped Pakistan economically, militarily, and diplomatically, which means that Islamabad’s chances of prevailing in a conventional confrontation are very slim.
The balance of power shifted nonetheless when Pakistan began developing nuclear weapons in 1972 to match the India program begun in 1967. This has prevented a full-scale attack ever since. When the two sides went to war in 1999, hostilities lasted just over two months and were geographically limited to the Himalayas. If New Delhi should be foolish enough to existentially threaten its neighbor, it raises the grim – albeit unlikely – prospect of a nuclear exchange.
We’re watching for a limited engagement, but we’re far from sanguine about the risks.
ISKCON (International Society for Krishna Consciousness) activists hold placards as they protest demanding the release of Hindu priest Chinmoy Krishna Das Prabhu, who was arrested in Bangladesh, in Kolkata, India, 29 November 2024. Chinmoy Krishna Das Prabhu, the spokesperson for the Bangladesh Sammilita Sanatani Jagran Jote was arrested by the Dhaka Metropolitan Police on November 25, accused of disrespecting Bangladesh's national flag during a rally.
India-Bangladesh trade war brews, Hasina accuses government of genocide
Anger in India over mistreatment of Bangladesh’s Hindu minority could spark a trade war. India’s ruling Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party has threatened to impose a five-day trade embargo against Bangladesh unless anti-Hindu violence ceases by next week, and possibly for “an indefinite period” in 2025. Some Indian businesses have already stopped exporting to Bangladesh, and Indian hospitals are reportedly refusing Bangladeshi patients.
Why the threats? Violence erupted last week after the arrest in Bangladesh of Hindu monk Krishna Das Prabhu on sedition charges followingprotests Prabhu led against anti-Hindu discrimination. Prabhu’s supporters stormed the Bangladeshi consulate in Agartala on Monday and reportedly hacked a Muslim lawyer to death in Chattogram.
Hindus constitute less than 10% of Bangladesh’s 170-million-strong population and have long claimeddiscrimination and violence from the Muslim majority. Attacks intensified after former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasinafled Dhaka in August following violent anti-government uprisings. On Wednesday, in her first public address since then, Hasina accused interim leader Muhammad Yunus of genocide.
What’s the issue for India? An ally of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi,Hasina now lives in exile in India, complicating Delhi’s relationship with the new Bangladeshi administration. Bangladesh is a key ally for India’s border security, particularly in the northeastern states where armed insurgents frequently cross the border to escape local authorities.