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The Nord Stream gas pipeline whodunit.

Luisa Vieira

Who blew up Nord Stream?

The controversial Nord Stream gas pipelines connecting Russia to Germany and Europe made headlines last September when several sections mysteriously exploded deep underwater, causing the surface of the Baltic Sea to bubble.

Multiple investigations determined the explosions were an act of sabotage, but they failed to identify a culprit. Most experts in the West pointed the finger at Russia, suspecting it was an attempt to worsen the winter prospects of an already energy-starved Europe to weaken its resolve to support Ukraine.

But I never fully bought into that theory.

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Ian Bremmer: Be Very Scared of AI | GZERO Media

Ian Bremmer: How AI may destroy democracy

More than 30 years ago, the US was the top exporter of democracy to the rest of the world. But now, America has become the main exporter of the tools that undermine democracy where it is weak, Ian Bremmer said in a GZERO Live conversation about Eurasia Group's Top Risks 2023 report.

Social media and tech companies based in the US have developed what he calls "Weapons of Mass Disruption" — Eurasia Group's #3 geopolitical risk for 2023.

And guess who wrote the title? An artificial intelligence bot from ChatGPT.

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Great-power rivalry to top G-20 agenda

GZERO

Great-power rivalry to top G-20 agenda


Geopolitical tensions will top the agenda as world leaders gather in Bali on Tuesday for the annual G-20, an international forum that brings together the world’s developed and developing countries to coordinate on economic, health, and climate policies. Russian President Vladimir Putin ultimately decided not to attend, but the war he launched in Ukraine will be an important topic of conversation. Meanwhile, US President Joe Biden will meet his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, on Monday to try to clarify their respective red lines and build a floor under the US-China relationship. Great-power competition appears likely to overshadow any coordination efforts at this year’s meeting. We asked Eurasia Group expert Ali Wyne what to expect.

Why do you think Putin decided to stay away?

The Russian leader had widely been expected to attend to demonstrate that, contrary to US and European narratives, Russia has not been reduced to pariah status. Indeed, Moscow maintains robust trading relationships around the world, with some reports suggesting that the value of its exports has actually increased since it invaded Ukraine.

In the end, however, at least two considerations appear to have dissuaded Putin from coming to Bali. First, he may have feared not only being shunned by Western leaders but also uncomfortable interactions with China — Russia’s most important partner — and India, both of which have grown increasingly anxious about the course of the war. Second, he is surely concerned about the pace at which Russia’s military position vis-à-vis Ukraine is deteriorating. Its army’s retreat from Kherson city is a major setback for Moscow, and Putin will find it increasingly difficult to argue that Russia is quelling Ukrainian resistance.

Russia will not be entirely absent from the G-20, as Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will lead a delegation from the country. Still, Putin’s absence is a major story, even if he opts to dial in virtually.

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Ukraine: Biggest Foreign Policy Test for the Biden Administration | US Politics :60 | GZERO Media

Ukraine: Biggest foreign policy test for the Biden administration

Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, shares his perspective on Biden's strategy on the Ukraine crisis.

How has Biden's response to the Ukraine crisis been so far?

Well, Ukraine is emerging as a major foreign policy test for the Biden administration who came into office seeming to want to set the Russia issue aside so they could focus on US policy in Asia. The Biden administration wants a diplomatic response because diplomacy is probably all they have. In public opinion polling, Americans say they do not want to get involved militarily in Ukraine, even if Russian invades, but near majority of Americans say they're not following the issue closely either, which means many of them could probably be convinced one way or the other. The White House efforts to deterrence have included a clever play to foil Russia's invasion plans by releasing intelligence about misinformation President Putin was planning on releasing as a pretext for invasion.

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Putin Will Capitalize on Western Divisions, Says Fiona Hill | GZERO World

Putin will capitalize on Western divisions, says Fiona Hill

“To deal with Putin, we have to have collective, coherent, concerted pushback,” Fiona Hill said in January. The former Director of European and Russian Affairs at the National Security Council under President Donald Trump warned that Vladimir Putin would likely exploit the political climate in America and tensions between allies to his advantage. Now would be the moment to act, she added, citing that the stage has been set for Putin to exert “coercive diplomacy” to mix things up to see what he can get out of America’s increasingly weak hand.

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Michael Chertoff: Russia Is Not a Long-Term Strategic Rival for the US | GZERO World

Michael Chertoff: Russia is not a long-term strategic rival for the US

Even as tensions build in Ukraine, Russia is not a long-term strategic rival for the United States. That’s according to former US Department of Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff, who spoke to GZERO World last September. “The danger with Russia in the short-term is recklessness in the neighborhood,” he said. But even though Moscow may not be the same sort of adversary it was during the Cold War, Chertoff sees big challenges for Washington, especially in cybersecurity and hybrid warfare. “The real danger comes when the red lines are murky or fuzzy,” he added.

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No Progress After Russia-US Talks, Party is Over for Boris Johnson | Europe In :60 | GZERO Media

No progress after US/NATO-Russia talks, Boris Johnson in trouble

Carl Bildt, former Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Sweden, shares his perspective from Kiev, Ukraine

First question, how is the crisis in this part of Europe developing?

Not good. There's been a week of intense diplomacy with talks in Geneva, and Brussels, and Vienna that produced virtually nothing. The Russian, sort of key demands are outrageously unrealistic. They know that is the case. The US is trying to engage them on somewhat different issues. We'll see if there's any prospect there, but it doesn't look too good. I think the likelihood is that we gradually will move into the phase of what the Russians call military technical measures, whatever that is.

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Why Big Tech Companies Are Like “Digital Nation States” | GZERO World

Why Big Tech companies are like “digital nation states”

No government today has the toolbox to tinker with Big Tech – that's why it's time to start thinking of the biggest tech companies as bona fide "digital nation states" with their own foreign relations, Ian Bremmer explains on GZERO World. Never has a small group of companies held such an expansive influence over humanity. And in this vast new digital territory, governments have little idea what to do.

Watch this episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer: Big Tech: Global sovereignty, unintended consequences

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