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DOD in Photos: 2020 This collection showcases the work of U.S. military photographers in 2020, when U.S. service members continued to conduct around-the-clock training and operations worldwide to ensure the nation's security, even while responding to the coronavirus pandemic. The USS Toledo (SSN-769) arrives at Ice Camp Seadragon on the Arctic Ocean kicking off Ice Exercise (ICEX) 2020. ICEX 2020 is a three-week, biennial exercise that offers the Navy the opportunity to assess its operational readiness in the Arctic and train with other services, partner nations and Allies to increase experience in the region, and maintain regional stability while improving capabilities to operate in the Arctic environment. U.S. Navy Photo by MC1 Michael B. Zingaro Where: United States When: 04 Mar 2020
US adopts a new Arctic strategy
Climate change is already reshaping US and Canadian defense policy. Melting Arctic ice raises the chances of natural disaster, and it’s also leading to an increased military presence in the north — from the US and Canada, but also Russia and China.
In response, the Pentagon has adopted an Arctic strategy that includes working with allies like Canada on interoperability while building defense capacity in the north. It includes new surveillance, reconnaissance, and communications in the region as well as training in the area.
This comes on the heels of the US signing the ICE Pact – an Arctic cooperation plan with Canada and Finland that includes an emphasis on building icebreakers. It also accompanies a Canadian security push that includes more spending on defense and a push to hit NATO’s 2% of GDP target in the next decade.
Canada recently bought a hangar in the Arctic next to a NORAD airbase after months of US urging, just as China and Russia were expressing interest in the property.
The flurry of Arctic defense news isn’t likely to diminish. In fact, on Wednesday night, Sen. Lisa Murkowskishared that she was briefed by Pentagon officials on Russian and Chinese bombers that were intercepted in Alaska’s air defense identification zone. She thanked the US-Canada integrated response and called the move by Russia and China an “unprecedented provocation by our adversaries.”
Arctic powers have been fighting over the region for years; as ice melts and shipping routes and potential defense vulnerabilities open, countries will be watching the region closely and angling for dominance.
U.S. President Donald Trump greets Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, U.S., May 13, 2019.
Donald and Viktor reunite at Mar-a-Lago
Former President Donald Trump is hostingViktor Orbán at his Florida resort on Thursday, less than a week after the Hungarian prime minister made controversial visits to Moscow and Beijing to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President XiJinping.
Orbán was in the US this week for the NATO summit in Washington. Though his country is a member of the alliance, Orbán — an anti-immigrant politician who’s extremely popular with the US right wing — is frequently at odds with the West. His amiable demeanor toward the Kremlin, opposition to providing aid to Ukraine, and antidemocratic tendencies have made him an outsider in NATO and the EU.
Trump, a well-known NATO skeptic, has a lot in common with Orbán: He’s nationalistic, isn’t a fan of sending assistance to Kyiv, and has been criticized for palling around with authoritarians like Putin. And Orbán has notably endorsed Trump’s 2024 campaign.
Their Mar-a-Lago rendezvous came after NATO leaders spent several days discussing how to defend Ukraine and democracy — and as President Joe Biden desperately tries to salvage his presidential campaign amid calls for him to step aside. The meeting is indicative of what a Trump victory in November might do to boost the global right.
We’ll be watching to see what details emerge from the meeting, and whether it offers more insights on Trump’s plans for US policy on Ukraine if he wins reelection.
Piers Cazalet, director of defense and security cooperation at NATO, downplayed the significance of the Trump-Orbán meeting in comments to GZERO Media on Thursday at an event on the sidelines of the summit in Washington. There are "32 allied leaders" in the US for the summit and “it’s normal” for them to have a “broad range” of meetings “across the US political spectrum,” Cazalet said, adding, “That’s what democracy is about.”
But Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski talked with Ian Bremmer on the sidelines of the summit for GZERO World and noted how Orbán’s rogue trips are in sharp contrast with NATO’s unified stance, which was on full display all week. Sikorski insists Orbán doesn’t represent the EU or NATO. Watch the interview here.
Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau arrives at a news conference in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, December 12, 2016.
Digital services tax brawl?
Last week, the Trudeau government enacted a digital services tax that has been in the works for years — and the US is ready to retaliate. The tax promises big money for the feds, with billions in revenue expected from big tech companies that earn more than CA$1.1 billion a year.
Canada had hoped to convince its peer countries in the OECD to follow suit on the same timeline — what Finance Minister ChrystiaFreeland called the “multilateral solution” — but that hasn’t happened. At least not yet.
The US, which wants to wait on imposing any such tax, is threatening to respond to the policy. The country’s ambassador to Canada, David Cohen, labeled the tax “discriminatory,” and trade representative Katherine Tai is looking at options in response, which might include action under the US-Mexico-Canada Free Trade Agreement.
Canada is already staring down a 2026 USMCA review, which could prove a rocky undertaking if Donald Trump wins in November. The former president has promised a global import tariff if he’s returned to the White House, which may or may not apply to Canada. The Trump campaign hasn’t clarified the scope of the policy. In March, Tai warned Canada not to get “too comfortable” with the free-trade status quo, which might be heading for upheaval, potentially alongside some punishment for Canada’s unilateral digital services tax.
What the France and UK elections mean for the West
Major Western democracies like France, the UK, Canada, and the US are on the verge of sweeping political change, but how will upcoming elections impact our collective ability to deal with the world’s biggest challenges? How will Western allies approach issues like climate change, the AI revolution, and cyber defense in an increasingly fractured world? Mark Carney, former Governor of the Banks of England and Canada and current UN Special Envoy on Climate Action & Finance, joins Ian Bremmer on GZERO World for a hard look at three of America’s closest allies: France, Britain, and Canada.
“We're operating in a world where security is paramount. You need resilience,” Carney tells Bremmer, “You need to look to those countries where you have common values and you need to reinforce them.”
Carney and Bremmer also delve into the strategic importance of the US-Canada relationship and how our neighbor to the north can be a reliable, strategic partner in many critical areas, including national security and climate transition. He warns Canadians and Americans shouldn’t “hit the snooze button” when it comes to strengthening US-Canada ties and stresses that Canada can be a critical partner in providing lean energy, crucial minerals, and AI expertise. As for Carney’s rumored political future as a potential Liberal Party leader? Well, you’ll just have to watch the interview to find out.
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week on US public television (check local listings) and online.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, U.S. President Joe Biden, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and World Bank President Ajay Banga attend a Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII) event, on the first day of the G7 summit, in Savelletri, Italy, June 13, 2024.
G7 strikes compromise on Ukraine funding
Both Justin Trudeau and Joe Biden flew to Italy this week for G7 meetings, where they pledged to strengthen the coalition supporting Ukraine in its fight against Russian invaders.
The G7 countries are expected to agree to lend Ukraine about $50 billion for reconstruction, backing the loan by using the interest accruing on $300 billion worth of Russian assets that were frozen by Western financial institutions after the invasion.
The move is a grand compromise between countries, like Canada, which have called for outright seizure of those assets in order to give them directly to Ukraine, and countries in Europe, where many of the assets are located, which have pushed back, citing issues of rule of law and precedent for other investors.
Putting the deal in practice will still require some complicated financial and legal chicanery, say experts, but the sense of urgency comes in part from concerns about the US Presidential election this fall.
Polls continue to show Biden, a strong supporter of Ukraine, trailing Donald Trump, who has shown little interest in helping Kyiv.
The asset-interest scheme is seen as a way to lock in a stream of Western financing for Ukraine that exists independently of any changing political winds in Washington.
Sailboat statue La Vela, on the shoreline at Stresa, Lake Maggiore, Italian Lakes, Piedmont, Italy
Top question for G7: How to Trump-proof Ukraine aid
Ahead of this week’s G7 Finance Ministers’ Meeting in Stresa, Italy, leaders might be feeling a little stress-a’d themselves. With the US election still anyone’s game, the world’s great democracies are increasingly concerned a victory for Donald Trump could severely impact, or even cut off, aid to Ukraine.
With that in mind, they’ll be discussing plans to pass along the interest earned on some $350 billion in frozen Russian assets to fund Kyiv’s war effort — basically making Russia pay to fight itself. If all goes well this week, US officials say some $50 billion could be ready to disburse as soon as this summer. As the assets earn more interest, Ukraine gets more money, and no fiddling with Congress is needed. The European Union is already using a similar set up to fund weapons purchases for Ukraine.
If the details can be hammered out before the G7 Leaders’ Summit next month and implemented before the US election, Trump winning wouldn’t change the payouts to Ukraine. But there’s work to be done: The US, UK, and Canada are reportedly more gung-ho, while Japan, Germany, France, and Italy are still concerned about the long-term precedents their actions could set, possibly driving money from places like China and the Persian Gulf away.
LONDON, UNITED KINGDOM - OCTOBER 23, 2021: Demonstrators march through central London in solidarity with Julian Assange ahead of next week's US extradition appeal hearing at the High Court on October 23, 2021 in London, England.
Assange’s last stand?
Assange was indicted in the US in 2018 on 18 charges for the publication of classified documents through Wikileaks, an activist organization he founded in 2006. Assange claims he acted as a journalist exposing US military wrongdoing, while prosecutors counter that he conspired to hack a Pentagon computer and endangered intelligence sources.
Since then, the native Australian has been in “one form of detention or another,” according to his wife Stella Assange, including Britain’s high-security Belmarsh prison since 2019. If he loses his bid to avoid extradition, Assange’s legal team may appeal to the European Court of Human Rights. US President Joe Biden is also reportedly considering an Australian request to drop the case.
A US-Canada border crossing and monument.
The United States has another border crisis – with Canada
Former Republican nominee hopeful Vivek Ramaswamy was mocked for his proposal during one GOP debate to build border walls with Mexico and Canada.
The problems at the southern border are well-documented. In January, US Border Patrol reported 124,200 encounters with migrants trying to enter the country illegally – and that is a 50% drop from previous months. It is an issue that may cost Joe Biden the election: A Pew Research poll suggested 80% of those surveyed think he is doing a bad job at handling the migrant influx.
Less well-known is that northern border states like Vermont, New York, and New Hampshire are reporting their highest rates of illegal migration in years. Canada is seen as a stepping stone to the US by human smuggling organizations – and it has the added benefit of no border walls or razor wire.
In 2023, roughly 7,000 migrants were arrested for illegally entering the US from Ontario, Quebec, and New Brunswick – a number higher than the last 12 years combined.
Chief Patrol Agent Robert Garcia, who patrols the Swanton sector, the 295-mile section of rough border terrain that separates New York, Vermont, and New Hampshire from Canada, tweeted that between April 28 and May 4 there were 492 apprehensions – the same as the whole of 2021.
Erik Lavallee, a US Border Patrol Agent, told CBS News that multiple organizations are using Canada to smuggle individuals to the U.S. Those arrested come from 66 different countries, including India, Haiti, Venezuela, and Mexico.
While less dangerous than the southern crossing – Biden is expected to tighten access to asylum there with new regulations as soon as today – the northern border is not without its perils. Ten migrants died from drowning and hypothermia coming through the Swanton sector.
Lawmakers seem to have been caught flat-footed by the explosion in numbers.
When Biden visited Ottawa in spring 2023, he signed a deal with Justin Trudeau to update the Safe Third Country Agreement that allowed either country to turn back asylum-seekers at unofficial border crossings, on the basis that Canada and the US are “safe” countries for refugees and they should apply where they land. However, this was designed to close a loophole that saw 40,000 migrants a year cross from the States into Canada at the infamous and unofficial Roxham Road crossing in Quebec and hand themselves over to the first border agent.
Policymakers do not yet appear to have woken up to this latest surge of illegal migrants heading in the other direction.