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A protester wears a South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol mask while holding a representation of prison bars, during a rally calling for the impeachment of the South Korean President, who declared martial law, which was reversed hours later, in front of the National Assembly in Seoul, South Korea, December 11, 2024.
South Korean prosecutors weigh arresting president, police retreat after standoff
The lead prosecutor in South Korea’s criminal investigation into last week’s brief declaration of martial law said Wednesday he would arrest President Yoon Suk Yeol if warranted. Also on Wednesday, police attempted to raid the Yongsan Presidential Office to secure evidence of Yoon’s actions and mindset before and during the martial law order but retreated after an hourslong standoff with presidential security.
Yoon survived an impeachment vote last weekend, but he faces another on Saturday. The opposition Democratic Party, which controls the National Assembly but falls eight votes short of the bar for impeachment, is promising to keep trying until Yoon steps down. Some members of Yoon’s own party have already promised to help oust him.
That said, as GZERO previously reported, the party leader is pressuring Yoon to step down and avoid impeachment altogether, though perhaps not immediately. If they can get Yoon to publicly agree now to resign in, say, February, that pushes elections even further away, creating space for maneuvering. Opposition leader Lee Jae-myung, who is the likely presidential candidate, has his own legal problems that could bar him from standing for office — if courts have enough time to process his case, that is.
Can they really arrest the president? Ordinarily no. South Korea’s president enjoys immunity from prosecution — except in the case of insurrection charges. The case looks quite serious, and the former defense minister who allegedly encouraged the coup attempt tried to commit suicide following his arrest. He is now hospitalized, and the heads of the National Police Agency and Seoul Metropolitan Police Agency are also under arrest.
In such a confusing and unprecedented environment, with essentially three separate, concurrent tracks for removing Yoon, Eurasia Group’s Jeremy Chan says the net effect is paralysis.
“The Democratic Party is playing hardball and eager to use all the tools at their disposal to make [Yoon’s People Power Party] pay a heavy price for not going along with impeachment,” he says.
We will have our eye on protests this weekend as widespread anger could snuff out attempts to get around the impeachment process if enough of the ruling party legislators are spooked by the outrage.
Why Assad’s sudden fall was surprising
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Why did you originally think Assad would be able to resist being overthrown?
I am absolutely surprised at the sudden regime change after 50 years of the Assads being in charge. A couple of reasons for it. First is because despite HTS wanting to engage in strikes, the Turkish government, which has been supporting them militarily, had been saying, "No, no, no." And even when they supported them, it was a flashing yellow light. It was take local territory, let the Syrians have more control over their border region. It was not going after Assad. Also, because the Russians and the Iranians, though they were significantly stretched, were providing military support in the early days. So that's the reason I thought that they were likely to be able to resist, but the fact is that they imploded very, very quickly.
What led you to believe Yoon's martial law declaration would fail in South Korea?
Well, here felt a lot like January 6th in the United States, January 8th in Brazil. You had a besieged individual leader, in this case not about an election, but facing 20% approval rates and massive corruption scandals and all sorts of impeachments against members of his cabinet, just getting desperate and deciding to pull the trigger on emergency martial law illegally and without talking even to leadership of his own party. So it seemed pretty clear that there wasn't going to be support. The South Korean people, the judiciary, the parliament, and rank and file, and the military were clearly not going to be supportive. So I mean, I expected that to last very, very briefly, and it fell apart very quickly indeed. He should be out of power in short order. And I expect he's going to resign, by the way, as opposed to being impeached, but it could go either way.
What's another major geopolitical assessment you've made that played out differently than expected, and what does it reveal about the complexities of global politics?
One of the biggest ones is probably the role of technology in geopolitics. Back in the '90s, if you think about the coloured revolutions in the former Soviet republics, you think about the Arab Spring after that, technology was really the communications revolution. It was decentralizing. It gave individuals access to more information and power. It undermined authoritarian regimes, and it promoted democracy. And today, just 20 years, 25 years later, technology has completely changed geopolitically. It's much more top-down. It's much more centralizing. It's about the data revolution, the surveillance revolution. It increasingly empowers authoritarian states that know how to use it, and it undermines democracies. And that is maybe one of the biggest geopolitical changes that's happened in my political lifetime, certainly the biggest since the Soviet Union imploded back in 1989 to '91. And it just goes to show that no matter what you think about the world, if you're not constantly updating your views, you're going to be wrong at some point.
South Koreans hold a mass rally demanding the impeachment and imprisonment of President Yoon Suk-Yeol near the National Assembly in Seoul, South Korea, on Dec. 7.
Is anyone in charge of South Korea?
We imagine Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un is enjoying the scent of chaos emanating from his southern border. Last week, you’ll recall, President Yoon Suk Yeol took a page from Kim’s playbook and declared martial law in South Korea. That ended quickly, but the instability continues.
Deeply unpopular and hounded by scandals, Yoon may have thought he could take out his political enemies by suspending military and political activities, but steadfast legislators quickly gathered to vote and end the mutiny. Politicians then moved to impeach Yoon, but he survived when fellow conservatives in his People Power Party walked out before Saturday’s impeachment vote. While over 100,000 people protested Yoon’s leadership outside the legislature, only 195 legislators supported impeachment, just shy of the 200 votes needed for it to pass.
Afterward, Yoon apologized and promised not to declare martial law again, but that doesn’t mean all is forgiven. Yoon still faces legal trouble – prosecutors have opened a criminal case against him – and the PPP has reportedly officialized his “early resignation.” PPP leader Han Dong-hoon said Yoon has been effectively sidelined from his duties and that “the prime minister will consult with the party to manage state affairs.” Yoon's former defense minister has also been arrested.
Korean politics have entered “truly uncharted waters,” says Eurasia Group expert Jeremy Chan. “Yoon is politically radioactive, with no member of his own party defending his decision to impose martial law,” which means his “presidency is effectively over, even if he manages to stay in office for a few more weeks.”
Pressure will build on Yoon and the party for him to offer an “orderly resignation,” Chan explains. If he refuses, “the odds that he is impeached by the National Assembly will grow each week,” and the pressure will be accompanied by more and more public protests and strikes.
What about regional security? For now, Chan thinks Kim will keep his head low. “Kim’s risk appetite will be low in the short term given that a more accommodative administration is likely to follow in South Korea once Yoon is gone and elections are held.”
But what if Yoon holds on for months amid political paralysis? Then, Chan says, “Kim could see this as a once-in-a-generation opportunity to strike amid a leadership vacuum in South Korea.”Protesters hold placards during a candlelight vigil to condemn South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol's surprise declarations of the failed martial law and to call for his resignation in Seoul, South Korea, December 5, 2024.
Could Yoon declare martial law again?
On Thursday, Han Dong-hoon, the leader of South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol’s party, said he was opposed to impeaching Yoon because it would add to national confusion. By Friday, however, he had changed his mind.
“Should Yoon continue to serve as president,” Han said Friday, "I think there is great risk for extreme actions like this martial-law declaration to happen again."
Now, the clock is ticking: By Saturday, lawmakers will vote on Yoon’s future, and if two-thirds agree to impeach, he will be immediately suspended from office.
Han’s change of heart may be linked to reports that Yoon ordered Han’s arrest when he declared martial law on Tuesday. According to the National Intelligence Service deputy director, Yoon’s arrest list also included the leader of the main opposition Democratic Party, Lee Jae-myung, and three opposition lawmakers. But there is confusion about that, too, because the head of the intelligence service said the opposite — that Yoon had not ordered arrests of the lawmakers.
Details of the chaotic planning “are more damning than initially expected and indicate that South Korea’s political system may have narrowly escaped a far more destabilizing outcome," says Eurasia Group’s Jeremy Chan.
The opposition controls a majority but falls eight votes short of the two-thirds margin needed to impeach. If Han lends his support to the effort, then Yoon’s goose is likely cooked.
Meanwhile, amid fears that Yoon might try to declare martial law again, South Korea's acting defense chief says he would refuse any such orders.
Watch the streets. Many South Korean voters are outraged by Yoon’s actions, and a failure to remove him from office quickly is likely to cause the modest protests and strikes to grow dramatically. We have our eye on the reaction to the impeachment vote, and to Han’s reversal on fighting it.
South Korean protestors calling for the dismissal and impeachment of South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol outside the National Assembly in Seoul, South Korea, on December 4, 2024. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol briefly declared martial law on December 3, 2024, citing threats to democracy from opposition lawmakers he labeled as pro-North Korea. The decree, which restricted political activities, media, and strikes, was quickly overturned by the National Assembly. The event highlights rising tensions and Yoon’s declining authority following significant opposition victories in recent elections.
South Korean president faces impeachment, treason charges
Soon after South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol lifted his imposition of martial law early Wednesday, opposition parties filed an impeachment bill against him in the National Assembly. Now, the clock is ticking: By Saturday, lawmakers will vote on Yoon’s future, and if two-thirds agree to impeach, he will be immediately suspended from office.
Yoon’s defense minister, chief of staff, and top secretaries have all resigned, and the president faces calls to do the same. South Korea’s largest labor union is calling for mass strikes if Yoon refuses to step down.
The opposition Democratic Party is also drawing up treason charges against Yoon and his defense and interior ministers, which could land them behind bars if convicted. Two presidents from South Korea’s military-rule era, Chun Doo-hwan and Roh Tae-woo, were convicted of treason in 1996.
What happens now? Yoon could resign, but Eurasia Group’s Jeremy Chan says that’s not his usual MO. “He’s a pugilist by nature. I don’t think he will go out without a fight,” he says, though “there is a slim chance that he can secure a deal with [opposition leader Lee Jae-myung] to go quietly and fade into the background in exchange for immunity for him and his wife.”
Still, Yoon’s ouster isn’t guaranteed. The opposition needs to peel off at least eight votes from Yoon’s party for the bill to pass, but given the bipartisan rejection of the coup attempt, that seems feasible.
If the bill passes, it then goes to the Constitutional Court, where at least six of nine justices need to confirm the impeachment before Yoon is removed, a process that could take weeks. There’s a wrinkle here as well, as currently the court has three vacant seats, so the decision needs to be unanimous – or the vote has to await three appointments.
We’re watching how Yoon plays the next few days, and the scramble for position ahead of elections likely to be held in the spring if Yoon is impeached.
Ian Bremmer surrounded by world leaders.
Political K-drama, Lebanon ceasefire, Trudeau at Mar-a-Lago, and more: Your questions, answered
It’s beginning to look a lot like the holiday season here in New York — so in the Christmas spirit, I decided to answer your most pressing questions in a December edition of my mailbag series. Want to know what I think about Trump’s latest picks for his new administration? What’s next for the Middle East? Gladiator II vs. Wicked? Ask, and you shall receive.
Hoping to crack a few echo chambers at once, I put out a call for questions onX,Threads, andBluesky, and — as usual — you all delivered an avalanche of insightful and thought-provoking queries. I sorted through hundreds of questions, spanning everything from “Is America in decline?” to “What is Moose’s favorite toy?” to “What is the meaning of life?” I’ll leave the philosophizing to Plato but am excited to tackle the questions more political in nature — with a few personal ones thrown in for amusement.
So grab some hot cocoa as I dive into your first round of questions (some of which have been edited for clarity).
What the heck happened in South Korea?
On Tuesday, President Yoon Suk Yeol shocked the world by (briefly and unlawfully) declaring emergency martial law before reversing course some six hours later. Martial law means all activities by parliament and political parties become prohibited, the media gets placed under state control, and protests and demonstrations are banned. Yoon claimed the move was meant “to eradicate” a fifth column of North Korea-aligned opposition elements, despite there being no evidence of such a threat. The truth: Yoon had become deeply unpopular after being swept up in several corruption scandals (with one notably including his wife). When the opposition refused to pass his budget, he snapped. Today, Yoon awoke to a political hangover, realizing that his decision destroyed any remaining legacy he might have had. He'll be impeached in short order (with a motion already submitted), and new elections will likely favor the opposition. South Korea will remain a democracy thanks to its institutions holding strong against the immediate threat of illiberalism (unlike some other countries I know). I predict the country will be able to move past this blip swiftly, and I doubt the rest of the world will be talking much about it in the coming weeks.
Do you expect the recent ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah to last?
Despite reports of some fire from both sides, which is to be expected, I think there’s a good chance that the truce will hold. About 60,000 Israelis evacuated the northern part of the country near the Lebanon border after Hamas attacked on Oct. 7, 2023. So a positive sign to look for would be if the displaced Israelis start heading back home. Israeli forces have pummeled Hezbollah, decimating their capacity to expand the war. Plus, Israel wants to give Donald Trump a win, and the two-month ceasefire will become "permanent" just as he is inaugurated. Coincidence? I think not.
How do you feel about Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau flying down to Mar-a-Lago in response to Trump's tariff threats? A weak move? A smart play? Somewhere in-between?
The Canadians are stuck between a rock and a hard place. America’s northern neighbors rely heavily on economic and political cooperation with the United States, so this was Justin Trudeau’s only move. Provincial governors across the political spectrum are demanding cooperation with the Trump administration as a matter of utmost urgency. The primary issue for Trudeau: He won’t be in power for long and, accordingly, has very limited leverage.
Has the United States become a rogue nation?
I’d define a rogue state as one that actively wants to break the norms and rules of the international order — diplomatic, economic, and military. By that definition, while the United States has taken rogue actions (the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the treatment of prisoners in Guantanamo and Abu Ghraib, etc. etc.), on most issues, the US doesn’t belong in that bucket. However, the US is now far less committed to strengthening or even leading multilateral institutions. It has become more transactional, less oriented toward common values, and more interested in bilateral negotiations with a clearer power advantage than multilateralism. In that way, US foreign policy is becoming less “exceptionalist” and more akin to China’s — though with a stronger focus on national security leverage than China’s more principally commercial perspective.
When you visited Mexico a bit more than a year ago, you concluded that the country was doing better than expected and shared a fairly optimistic outlook for the country’s future. Do you still hold that view?
I feel less optimistic than a year ago, for sure. The Mexican economy should be doing far better, given its level of integration with the United States (the strongest economy in the world) and its favorable positioning vis-a-vis derisking/decoupling from China. However, some market-unfriendly decisions during Claudia Sheinbaum’s presidential transition, particularly but not limited to judicial reform, have hurt Mexico’s investment climate. Plus, concerns that the bilateral relationship with the US will come under pressure from the incoming Trump administration adds to the looming economic uncertainty. Still, Sheinbaum’s orientation is much more technocratic — and her Cabinet overall is more professional — than her predecessor, and that will help.
Can you please make sense of what's now happening in Syria/Aleppo? Will the Assad regime collapse?
Basically, a Turkey-backed militant Islamist group called HTS managed to snag Aleppo, Syria’s second-biggest city, in a matter of days, catching everyone off guard. It’s a huge deal, basically flipping the script on who controls what in Syria. But why now, after the Syrian civil war had been frozen for years? Two words: G-Zero, baby. Assad’s regime is extremely dependent on Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah for its survival. But Israel recently wiped out Hezbollah in Lebanon and weakened Iran’s proxy network, leaving Assad seriously vulnerable. Plus, Russia is racing to grab as much ground as possible before a potential Trump-forced ceasefire in Ukraine. With Assad’s main backers distracted and resource-strained, it was the perfect opportunity for the rebels to make a move. But here’s the kicker: Assad isn’t going down. Iran and Russia are too invested in keeping him in power, so they'll absolutely jump in to save his bacon. Even countries that are happy to see Assad and Iran weakened, like Israel and Turkey, don’t want to deal with the chaos that his overthrow would leave behind. So, while this is a massive shake-up, don’t bet on Assad getting the boot just yet – he’s survived crazier situations, and he’s got some powerful friends helping him hang on.
How are things looking for Russia given the ruble, Syria, and Iran?
In terms of those specific perspectives, things might not be looking too good for Russia. Low oil prices, new sanctions, and government spending on the war effort propelled the Russian ruble to its lowest levels in over two years. Rebel advancement in Aleppo makes both Russia and Iran look weak and distracted. Plus, there’s been anastronomical number of Russian casualties in Ukraine as Putin’s invasion has dragged on.
But that’s not to say that things are looking bad for Russia in the long term. Russian forces have been gaining more and more territory in the Donbas; President-elect Trump aims to end the war as soon as possible; Volodymyr Zelensky is under an immense amount of domestic pressure to stop the bleeding; and the Europeans are increasingly split on continuing economic and military support for Kyiv. With no direct internal threat to Putin’s position, the Russian president is still sitting comfortably in Moscow … with large bits of Ukraine essentially his.
What got you interested or started in politics to begin with?
My first trip outside the United States really kicked off my interest in politics. Picture it: Soviet Union in 1986, the Cold War in full swing. It was such a transformative experience for a kid from the projects. My perception of Moscow, Leningrad, and the former Soviet republics was so different than what the news was telling me, which was fascinating and made me want to explore other parts of the world. I wanted to go everywhere, study hard, and learn as much as possible to understand the world better. I thought of that kid when I made my trip to Antarctica last year, completing my journey to all seven continents.
Who is the most well-known person on your cellphone contact list?
Besides Beyoncé? Just kidding — I don't know many Hollywood types, but I suspect the few I do are the most broadly well-known, not all the political leaders. So I would probably say it’s Ashton Kutcher, who is extremely interested in international relations, especially in China. Bet you didn’t expect that answer.
People gather outside the National Assembly after South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law, in Seoul, South Korea, on Dec. 4, 2024.
South Korean president declares martial law — then backs off
In an unexpected, late-night speech on Tuesday, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law, banning all political activity, taking control of all media, and suspending parliament. For all of a few hours, it turned out. Now, he's facing possible impeachment.
The announcement appeared to come as a total shock to all parties except the military, with even the head of Yoon’s party announcing he would “stop it, with the people.” Troops surrounded the National Assembly in Seoul soon after Yoon’s announcement to preempt resistance, but 190 of the chamber’s 300 lawmakers made it inside after midnight, with more held up at the gates.
Legislators unanimously voted to order Yoon to lift martial law, and Speaker Woo Son-shik declared the president’s action “null and void.”
Meanwhile, thousands of citizens arrived to demonstrate in the wee hours. They chanted “Abolish martial law!” and “Arrest Yoon Suk Yeol!” Demonstrators blocked an eight lane road and began organizing impromptu caravans to bring in protesters from across the country, but by 4 a.m. the crowds began to thin.
Soon after, Yoon caved in. He got back on television around 4:20 a.m. to announce he had called a cabinet meeting, and that martial law would be lifted within hours.
What the hell was Yoon thinking? It was “an act of political desperation,” says Eurasia Group’s Jeremy Chan. It wasn’t about North Korea or social order — despite Yoon’s claims, he explains. Yoon was “trying to send a message to the National Assembly and bring all legislative investigations to a halt.”
Yoon, who is deeply unpopular, has been trapped in a stalemate with the opposition that controls the legislature. They have repeatedly tried to launch corruption investigations against his wife, which Yoon always vetoes, and moved to impeach government prosecutors while stymying the president’s budget priorities. Still, Yoon’s calculus is not entirely clear, as he was not subject to impeachment proceedings.
What happens next? “It’s hard to see how Yoon survives this unless there’s some sort of other shoe to drop that we don’t know about yet,” said Chan.
On Wednesday, amid calls for Yoon to resign, South Korea’s opposition politicians began impeachment proceedings that could lead to a vote as early as Friday.
Two-thirds of legislators must vote in favor in order for Yoon to be impeached, and the opposition has the needed votes almost by themselves; it will take only a small number of votes from Yoon's party to pass. The impeachment must then be approved by the Constitutional Court of Korea, and if Yoon is removed from office, a new election will be held within two months.
Beyond that, it’s unclear whether Yoon might face any legal punishment for his attempt to suspend democracy, but two out of the last three South Korean presidents served jail time after their terms for considerably less serious violations.
How is the world reacting? Mostly with shock. US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell expressed “grave concern” but reiterated that Washington stands by its ally. President Joe Biden was briefed while traveling to Angola, and US officials say they are in contact with their counterparts in Seoul.
Plus: For more on why South Korea’s president declared martial law, check out Ian Bremmer’s latest Quick Take here.
Why South Korea's president declared martial law
President Yoon had said that the reason for this is that the opposition is supporting North Korea and that there are North Korean forces that have been infiltrating the South Korean opposition. It is true that this opposition, this is by the way the ruling party in parliament, supports the "Sunshine Policy" and Yoon's government is hard line on North Kore. But there's no evidence of any North Korean infiltration or involvement. What there is evidence of is that President Yoon is incredibly unpopular. Lots of corruption scandals around his family, around his government, approval ratings in the 20s, which is pretty much the lowest you'll see of any advanced industrial democracy today. Though there are a number of countries that are trying to give him a hard run for it.
The opposition party, the ruling party in parliament, has been pushing really hard to make his life miserable. They have investigated his wife. They've tried to impeach a number of cabinet officials. They're refusing to pass the budget and apparently he just couldn't take it anymore. I'll tell you, nobody expected it. Aside from the military leaders that he coordinated with, senior government officials were shocked by the move. Our parliamentarians were shocked by the move. This isn't like January 8th in Brazil where it was clear that Bolsonaro was going to do everything he could try to overturn the elections. Just as it was clear January 6th in the United States that Trump was going to do everything he could to overturn election.
This is a very different situation. This was a very sudden move. It is perfectly legal to declare martial law, but you have to actually pre-notify the National Assembly, which he did not do, so it wasn't done legally. You also need 151 lawmakers to approve martial law within 72 hours. That isn't going to happen. The next thing that's very likely to occur are lots of demonstrations and it's very hard to imagine that the military would violently break them up. This isn't Pakistan. And we also saw an emergency session that they got a majority for of National Assembly lawmakers that all 190 voted to end this. So I think what's going to happen is President Yoon is going to wake up tomorrow with a really bad hangover, certainly a political one, maybe others too, and going to realize that he did something incredibly stupid, overreached, and has destroyed any remaining legacy that he might have had.
South Korea's going to remain a democracy. This coup will be very short-lived. I'd be surprised if outside of South Korea we're talking much about it in coming weeks. But it is important. It's important because South Korea is an ally of the United States. It now has a robust relationship with Japan. In fact, the tripartite agreement brokered by Biden at Camp David was arguably his greatest foreign policy success. The equivalent of the Abraham Accords by the Trump administration. And the right-wing Yoon is particularly aligned with Japan and the Japan's LDP Party as well as with the Americans and certainly would be with incoming President-elect Trump. So in that regard, the US is going to have a hard time being overtly critical. They won't want to because, as unhinged as he is, he is a strong ally.
And an incoming administration, if he's now assumingly going to be impeached and probably end up in prison, is not going to be as aligned with the United States or Japan going forward would also lead to a softer policy towards North Korea. So I do think it matters geopolitically long-term, but the coup itself is not something that is going to be sticking around. So I think we still have a democracy in South Korea. We'll watch this unfold and I'll talk to you all real soon.