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Protesters demanded the ouster of South Korean President Yoon in central Seoul on March 29, 2025.
South Korean leader to learn his political fate on Friday
Controversy on the peninsula. The impeachment case revolves around whether Yoon unconstitutionally declared martial law on Dec. 3, a move that lasted all of six hours. The National Assembly, which is dominated by the center-left Democratic Party, impeached the center-right president 11 days after the incident on the grounds that he violated his constitutional duty (and did so with the support of a handful of lawmakers from Yoon’s own party). While many demonstrated against Yoon’s declaration of martial law, his conservative backers – a small but vocal minority – have taken to the streets in recent months to show their support for the president.
Don’t bet against Yoon’s removal from office. Six of the court’s eight justices need to vote for Yoon’s removal if he is to be removed from office, an outcome that Eurasia Group regional expert Jeremy Chan believes is more likely than not.
“Public support for Yoon’s removal remains high, and the legal merits of the case against Yoon are solid. Excusing his martial law declaration would also risk normalizing it for future leaders,” he said.
Should the court rule in Yoon’s favor, he would return to office immediately, but if the court rules against him, as expected, South Korea must hold presidential elections within 60 days. Regardless of the ruling, Yoon still faces criminal charges for alleged treason – the one charge for which a sitting president is not immune. While the legal system may stem the criminal proceedings if he retains his presidential immunity, it is far more likely to proceed if he is removed from office.
Schools will be closed Friday, and police will be out in force in anticipation of mass protests, which are likely no matter how the court rules, says Chan.
Sea change for Seoul? If Yoon’s impeachment is formalized, acting President and Prime Minister Han Duck-soo will remain at the helm until an election takes place this spring. Opposition leader Lee Jae-myung, of the center-left, is the firm favorite to win at the polls. With a more dovish foreign policy stance, South Korea under Lee would likely seek warmer ties with China and North Korea, says Chan.
“Lee is a progressive populist who has been skeptical of the pro-US and pro-Japan tilt that South Korea’s foreign policy took under Yoon,” he said.
What if Japan & South Korea sided with China on US tariffs?
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
If China, Japan, and South Korea formed a united front, what kind of leverage would they have in negotiating against US tariffs?
Oh, if that were to happen, they'd have incredible leverage because China's the second-largest economy in the world, Japan's the third. This would be a really, really big deal. Except for the fact that it's not going to happen. Their trade ministers did just meet, and they've had some interesting coordinated statements. They do a lot of trade together, and they want to continue that. But the fact that the security of South Korea and Japan is overwhelmingly oriented towards the US, and they would not want to undermine that, means that they will certainly not see China as a confederate to coordinate with against the United States, not least on trade. The American response would be belligerent. So no, that's not going to happen.
Will Syria's newly formed transitional government be enough for Arab and Western leaders to lift sanctions and restore diplomatic ties?
I think they are heading in that trajectory. The question is, will it be enough to keep Syria stable and away from descending into civil war? And there, there's a huge question because this is a completely untested government, completely inexperienced, no governance background, very little background in terms of military stability, especially with all of the new members, militias that have been integrated from across a very diverse country. And a lot of internal opponents that are sitting back and waiting to fight. So I'm more worried about that than I am about international support. I think largely the international support they need is going to be there.
Why does Trump want to take Greenland?
I have no idea. Maybe somebody showed him a globe from the top and he saw how big it was, and he's like, "Oh, that'd be kind of cool to have." It's not like there's anything he needs that he can't get directly from negotiating with Denmark. Plenty of willingness to allow the US to have expanded bases, troops on the ground. Plenty of willingness from other countries in the region to do more in terms of patrolling, build more icebreakers to deal with. The Finnish President, Alex Stubb, who just went to see him golfing with him, spent seven hours over the weekend moving in that direction. But you saw from Vice President Vance, he's like, "Well, the President wants it. So of course I got to respond to that." Yeah, but they don't have any reason. And I do think that it is sufficiently blowing up in their faces on the ground in Denmark and in Greenland, that the Danes understand not to make a big deal out of this and it will eventually blow over. It is annoying to them symbolically, but it doesn't matter all that much. In that regard, we can spend a little bit less time on it. Okay, that's it for me. I'll talk to you all real soon.
South Korean flag.
HARD NUMBERS: Korean exportation of children, Auto tariffs announced, US soldiers killed in training accident, Trump cuts billions from state health care funds, Survival kits for Europeans, Azov fighters get lengthy sentences
170,000: A report released Wednesday by the independent Truth and Reconciliation Commission in South Korea pointed blame at Seoul for human rights violations related to a decades-long adoption program. Lack of oversight, according to the report, led to the “mass exportation of children” — to the tune of at least 170,000 kids — by private firms that were driven by profit. South Korea has been the global leader in sending children abroad for adoption since the 1950s but has worked to tighten its adoption processes.
25: On Wednesday, Donald Trump announced that a 25% tariff would be placed on all automobiles and automobile parts imported into the United States. The new tariff, set to take effect on April 2, will apply to both finished cars and trucks, including American brands manufactured abroad. This policy could lead to significant price increases for consumers as nearly half of the vehicles sold in the US are imported. Shares in Toyota, Honda, and Nissan fell about 2% in Asia on Thursday. Japan, South Korea, and the EU will all be heavily impacted, and Germany – the bloc’s automobile powerhouse – is urging countries to “respond firmly” with “far larger” tariffs.
4: Four US soldiers have died in a training accident in Lithuania. According to the US Army Europe and Africa public affairs office in Germany, the soldiers were involved in scheduled tactical training, and Lithuania’s public broadcaster LRT said the four had been reported missing on Tuesday in Pabradė, a town located less than six miles from the Belarusian border.
12 billion: The Trump administration this week cut billions in funding for state-run health services. Health and Human Services started informing state health departments on Monday that more than $12 billion in federal grants to states was being cut with immediate effect. Layoff preparations began as early as Tuesday in some areas. The funds had been used for tracking infectious diseases, mental health services, addiction treatment and other urgent health issues, and the cuts are expected to further hamper struggling state health care facilities.
72: In some older European homes, you can still find bomb shelters-turned-wine cellars — reminders of the horrors of war. Those shelters may soon be lined with survival kits, after the EU announced Wednesday that it wants all of its member states to create 72-hour survival kits for their citizens. The idea behind the Preparedness Union Strategy? To be ready for any future disasters, whether they’re natural or man-made.
12: They led the fight for Mariupol at the beginning of the Russian invasion, and now 12 members of Ukraine’s Azov regiment – who were captured when Russia won the siege of the city – are facing long prison sentences in Russia. A military court on Wednesday handed them sentences ranging from 13 to 23 years for alleged terrorist activity and violently seizing or retaining power.South Korea's impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol attends a hearing of his impeachment trial at the Constitutional Court in Seoul, South Korea, February 20, 2025.
South Korea’s Yoon faces his first day in court
Impeached South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol appeared before two courts on Thursday. His first stop at the Seoul Central District Court made him the first sitting president — he’s not yet been formally removed from office — to face criminal prosecution. He is accused of insurrection for imposing martial law, albeit briefly, on Dec. 3. Korean presidents enjoy immunity from prosecution on most charges — but not insurrection or treason.
Yoon, whose conservative party suffered a stinging defeat in last April’s parliamentary elections, claimed at the time that the progressive-dominated National Assembly was infiltrated by North Korea. South Koreans took to the streets to protest the declaration of martial law. But South Korean politics is heavily polarized and, before long, Yoon’s conservative backers — a small but vocal minority — began to protest in support of the president.
Yoon then attended a hearing in front of the Constitutional Court, which will now decide whether his Dec. 14 impeachment will stand, which would officially remove him from power. That verdict is likely to drop by mid-March.
If he is also found guilty in his criminal trial, he could face life in prison or even (though unlikely) execution.
South Korea has already been through plenty since Yoon’s Dec. 3 decree, but there could be more unrest coming, given how mobilized the public is to protest, and how radicalized the right wing has become, according to Eurasia Group’s Jeremy Chan.
“It could take the form of a protest movement that metastasizes and gets a bit out of control. It could also manifest in acts of political violence,” says Chan. This might include “trying to assassinate judges, for example, or to intimidate lawmakers.” That kind of violence is not unprecedented: The president’s supporters broke into the Seoul Western District Court after he was detained last month, and, just a year ago, opposition leader Lee Jae-myung was stabbed at an event in Busan.
“Unfortunately, it’s a sort of tinderbox environment in Korea in normal times,” Chan says. “And when you add in all these additional elements, including the radicalization of the far right since December, I think you have a lot of the raw materials for a pretty combustible situation.”
In this photo illustration, a DeepSeek logo is seen displayed on a smartphone with a South Korea Flag in the background.
South Korea halts downloads of DeepSeek
South Korea’s Personal Information Protection Commission, the data privacy authority in the country, said the app “lacked transparency about third-party data transfers and potentially collected excessive personal information.” It’s unclear whether the third party in question is the Chinese government.
The government said the ban will only be lifted after DeepSeek adheres to the country’s privacy and security laws, which are considered among the world’s most stringent. While DeepSeek’s R1 model has quickly become one of the foremost large language models, it’s the first such one to hail from China — and thus, privacy advocates and global regulators have criticized its privacy policy, which states that the company will share data with China. “We store the information we collect in secure servers located in the People's Republic of China,” the policy says. The Chinese Foreign Ministry urged South Korea not to “politicize” trade issues and said Chinese companies comply with local laws where they operate.
Italy already banned DeepSeek nationwide over privacy concerns, while Taiwan and Australia each banned the app on government devices. In the United States, there’s no federal prohibition on government devices, but legislation was introduced earlier this month to do just that. Meanwhile, New York, North Carolina, Texas, and Virginia have all banned DeepSeek on state-owned devices.
Software is difficult to ban — especially since virtual private networks can mask one’s location — but countries concerned by Chinese access to their citizens’ data are trying their best.
FILE PHOTO: Supporters of impeached South Korea's President Yoon Suk Yeol participate in a rally outside the Seoul Detention Center in Uiwang, South Korea, January 18, 2025.
Yoon dodges questioning after supporters storm court
Impeached South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeolrefused to accompany police officers for questioning on Monday, after his supporters stormed a court that approved his continued detention on Sunday. Ninety people were detained during the clash, and other people who participated are being identified for prosecution.
The authorities might not have to search that hard. The rioters livestreamed themselves blasting lines of police with foam from fire extinguishers and entering the courthouse by force. They broke into at least one judge’s chamber during the brief incursion.
Yoon said through his lawyers that he found the rampage “shocking and unfortunate” but that he understood the “rage and unfairness” many Koreans felt. His lawyers have argued that his arrest last Wednesday was illegal and that the court has no jurisdiction in this matter.
Politics are in the most precarious place in years. While impeached, Yoon has still not been formally removed from office, and the long delay has allowed his political allies to consolidate. Elections will be held 60 days after Yoon is formally removed by the Constitutional Court.
In the meantime, markets are suffering through the uncertainty, and the central bank downgraded economic growth forecasts for the coming year to between 1.6% and 1.7%.South Korean President Yoon arrested
Impeached South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol was arrested by officers from the national corruption authority after an hours-long standoff on Wednesday morning. His detainment comes six weeks after his short-lived imposition of martial law, for which he was impeached and suspended from office, but his final removal is pending a ruling from the Constitutional Court.
Yoon, the first South Korean president to be arrested while technically still in office, was taken via motorcade to a detention center in the suburbs of Seoul. In a statement posted to social media, Yoon said he chose to submit to arrest to avoid violence, but he reportedly refused to answer questions during police interrogation. Police now have less than 48 hours to formally charge him before they must obtain a warrant to continue holding him.
Eurasia Group’s Jeremy Chan says Yoon can’t keep dragging his feet. “Now that he has been removed from his official residence, Yoon will likely be unable to avoid answering the questions of CIO investigators, the Constitutional Court, and parliamentary hearings.”
The arrest blows South Korea further into uncharted waters. When former President Park Geun-hye was impeached in 2017, prosecutors waited for her removal before bringing charges and arrest warrants. South Korean presidents may be arrested for insurrection, which is what Yoon is facing, but otherwise enjoy immunity from prosecution.
Part of the rush has to do with opposition leader Lee Jae-myung’s own legal problems. If the Supreme Court rules against him in corruption cases related to his earlier political positions, he could be barred from standing for president — but if he can force Yoon out and hold elections in time, it renders the issue moot.
Still, Lee is looking like much less of a sure bet than he was in mid-December. His party’s support among voters has fallen from 52% in the beginning of December to 42% in January, barely ahead of Yoon’s party at 40%.
South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol speaks on the government budget at the National Assembly in Seoul, South Korea, 25 October 2022.
Hard Numbers: Yoon gets a raise, China sets record trade surplus, California Dems are ready for Trump, Ryanair wants drink limits
3: Despite being impeached and having a warrant out for his arrest, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol received his scheduled 3% pay raise on Monday, raising his annual salary to 262.6 million won, or $178,888.
1 trillion: China’s trade surplus reached nearly $1 trillion last year, far outpacing any trade surpluses recorded globally over the past century. But while it’s flooding the world with its products, it’s hardly importing thanks to its lagging domestic economy.
$50 million: California Democrats have reached a $50 million deal to lead a resistance against Donald Trump. The deal will provide funds for the state to challenge the administration in court, to fend off Trump’s mass deportation agenda, and to support legal and immigration nonprofits. Meanwhile, Republicans are criticizing state leaders for focusing on the deal as the state battles devastating wildfires.
2: Ryanair wants European airports to enforce a limit of two drinks per passenger as the budget airline pursues legal action to recover nearly $16,000 in costs related to a plane that had to be redirected mid-flight because of the disruptions of an overly intoxicated passenger last year.