We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Supporters with a placard 'April 10 is the Yoon Suk Yeol government, Judgment Day.' attend the Democratic Party of Korea's general election campaign rally at Yongsan Station Square in Seoul, South Korea, April 9, 2024.
South Korean opposition likely to clean up in key elections
South Koreans went to the polls today for key legislative elections amid a bitterly polarized environment and a sluggish economy, with early exit polls showing a likely landslide for the opposition Democratic Party. President Yoon Suk Yeol has been stymied by DP control of the unicameral legislature throughout the first two years of his presidency, and his People Power Party was facing daunting odds heading into today.
Cost of living is top of mind. Opposition leader Lee Jae-myung turned the humble green onions that feature in so many Korean dishes into a political weapon after Yoon made remarks on their price that were perceived as being out of touch. Meanwhile, Yoon’s wife, Kim Keon-hee, has been at the center of a luxury gift scandal, which has hardly helped with perceptions of aloofness.
That said, Lee faces graft allegations of his own and is no less of a controversial figure. In fact, he was lucky to survive an attempted assassination in January, when he was stabbed in the neck at a campaign rally. Political violence is not unheard of in South Korea, but the incident underlines the depth of the country’s political divisions.
“Because of the political polarization, South Koreans end up deciding elections based on things like whether the first lady received a $2,000 handbag and didn't report it,” says Eurasia Group senior analyst Jeremy Chan. “It speaks to the underlying dynamic in South Korea, where folks are deciding on the trivial stuff because the political parties can't deal with the big issues.”
And there are BIG issues on South Korea’s plate: The country is getting old and having very few babies, economic growth is weak and unlikely to improve, and, of course, North Korea’s nuclear weapons threaten total annihilation.
Chan expects Yoon to continue focusing on foreign policy if exit polls hold true, including “doubling down on the rapprochement with Japan, broadening relations with Europe, with ASEAN, and with the United States, while moving further away from China and North Korea, because that's where he can exert influence without the National Assembly.”
Official results are expected early Thursday.
South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol speaking at the presidential office on TV at Seoul Railroad Station in Seoul. April 1, 2024
Viewpoint: South Korea’s president looks to legislative elections to kickstart his agenda
All 300 seats in South Korea's unicameral legislature will be up for grabs in the April 10 election, offering President Yoon Suk-yeol the opportunity to kickstart his agenda if his conservative People Power Party, or PPP, can gain control of the National Assembly. The center-left Democratic Party of Korea, aka DP, currently holds a majority of the seats in the chamber and has frustrated Yoon’s efforts to advance business-friendly policies since he took office in 2022.
Nonetheless, the PPP faces long odds in flipping the chamber, according to Eurasia Group expert Jeremy Chan. We asked him to explain.
Why the poor prospects for the PPP?
The conservative party would need to gain roughly three dozen seats to recapture the National Assembly, a tall order that will be made even more challenging by Yoon’s low approval rating, which hovers below 40%. While his name will not appear on the ballot, the election is widely seen as a referendum on Yoon’s administration.
For Yoon, failing to recapture the National Assembly would effectively render him a lame duck with more than half of his term in office remaining. It would put his agenda of cuts to taxes and government spending on life support and make him the first Korean president in decades to serve an entire five-year term without ever exerting control over the legislature. Attention would promptly shift to the race to succeed Yoon in the 2027 presidential election.
What are the main issues for voters?
The state of the economy is at the top of the list, particularly sluggish growth and worrying debt levels for households and corporations. A recent rebound in Korea’s export sector — largely driven by an uptick in global demand for Korean semiconductors — has provided a bit of a tailwind to the economy, but overall sentiment remains negative. Voters are likely to hold the ruling conservative party responsible for this situation, even as the opposition in the National Assembly has watered down many of Yoon’s business-friendly reforms, which are meant to stimulate growth.
Scandals and other allegations of impropriety are another top voter concern. Many left-leaning voters find Yoon’s leadership style imperious, particularly his attacks against critical media outlets. His wife, Kim Keon-hee, is also a lightning rod for public criticism, with Yoon postponing a trip to Germany and Denmark in February to keep her out of the spotlight; if left-leaning opposition parties hold onto the National Assembly, they are likely to open an investigation into allegations that Yoon’s wife received unreported gifts and committed other misdeeds. Meanwhile, the leader of the DP, Lee Jae-myung, continues to face his own corruption investigations, which has decreased support for the main center-left opposition party.
What can this election tell us about the state of Korean politics?
Polls suggest that the election will likely be decided by a narrower margin than the last legislative election in 2020; the top two candidates in roughly 60 single-member districts are polling within the margin of error. Tempers are also running high in Korea, where political polarization has worsened in recent years. Both Yoon and Lee — the runner-up in the 2022 contest — are divisive figures, which has increased support for splinter parties, most notably the newly formed Cho Kuk Innovation Party. Korean politics have traditionally been dominated by two major political parties, but this election may be a harbinger of a more pluralistic system to come. With 30 of the 300 seats in the National Assembly to be allocated to non-major parties, chances are high that neither the PPP nor the DP will secure an outright majority.
Will the election outcome change Korea’s relations with the US, Japan, China, or North Korea?
This election will not have a significant effect on Korea’s foreign policy. Regardless of the outcome, Yoon will retain wide latitude over Korea’s external relations, including in diplomacy, security, and trade. Yoon will continue to deepen Seoul’s ties with Washington and Tokyo — he will participate in a trilateral summit with US President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Washington in July — while relations with Beijing and Pyongyang will remain strained. The US is on the verge of overtaking China as Korea’s top export market, and Korean firms are increasingly directing their investments away from China. By the time Yoon steps down in 2027, his successor will face a remarkably different external environment than the one Yoon inherited in 2022.
If the conservative party manages to pull off an upset, how will that change the political landscape in Korea?
A conservative victory in the legislative elections — not likely but also not unthinkable — would breathe new life into Yoon’s presidency. His administration would move quickly to enact a raft of business-friendly reforms, including lowering taxes on corporations and increasing government support for small- and medium-sized enterprises.
“Strategic” industries such as semiconductors, electric vehicles, batteries, biotech, and AI would likely benefit from greater policy attention. And Lee would come under increasing pressure to step down as head of the DP.
A PPP-controlled National Assembly would also put wind in the sails of the government’s recently announced “Corporate Value Up Program.” The program is designed to reduce the “Korea discount” whereby domestic firms have lower valuations than peer companies in Japan and Taiwan; it promises tax credits and other incentives to firms that “value up” their stock price through increased dividend payments, share buybacks, and improvements to their corporate governance.
Jeong Bo-mi, 37, and her baby in Seoul, South Korea, April 7, 2016.
Hard Numbers: South Korea's baby money, Cobalt and reproductive issues in the DRC, Egypt gets bailed out, Calif. braces amid storms, New Japanese words hit dictionary
75,000: In South Korea, where the overall fertility rate is expected to plummet to 0.68 this year, significantly lower than the 2.1 deemed essential by the OECD for maintaining a relatively steady population, a construction firm is providing employees with a $75,000 reward for every child they have. This initiative is just one of numerous attention-grabbing incentives being introduced as policymakers and businesses contend with the nation's demographic challenges.
56: A study from NGO’s Rights & Accountability in Development and Afrewatch found 56% of respondents in 25 villages near five major cobalt mines reported serious concerns over related health issues, including miscarriages and birth defects. Cobalt production is critical for electric vehicles and batteries and has ramped up over the past decade fueled by the green energy transition.
8 billion: The International Monetary Fund confirmed Saturday it will more than double the bailout loan it is issuing to Egypt to $8 billion, as Cairo’s economy nears collapse with dwindling foreign reserves and soaring inflation. Egypt secured a similarly sized aid package from the EU as well, which will be disbursed over three years.20 million: Some 20 million West Coasters were facing flood watches thanks to a big storm that slammed the Golden State over the weekend. While much of the state faced up to three inches of rain, the foothills of Southern California were expecting up to six. The havoc came just a week after Gov. Gavin Newsom expanded a state of emergency to 11 counties that struggled with powerful storms in early February.
23: The Oxford English Dictionary added 23 Japanese words in its latest update. More than half of the borrowed words relate to cooking, while a number also relate to art like Kintsugi, an increasingly popular way of repairing broken pottery with gold lacquer.
A training of the fire division, guided by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un (not pictured), is held in North Korea, March 18, 2024, in this picture released on March 19, 2024, by the Korean Central News Agency.
Hard Numbers: Kim Jong Un takes aim, Pakistan launches deadly airstrikes, Sunak’s asylum-seeking plan proves costly, BOJ raises rates, Death toll rises in Haiti
186: Stop us if you’ve heard this one before: On Monday, North Korea responded to a visit to South Korea by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken by firing short-range ballistic missiles from Pyongyang an estimated 186 miles into the Sea of Japan. North Korea’s military has recently staged military maneuvers in response to annual US-South Korean joint drills.
8: Pakistan launched airstrikes on Monday on suspected hideouts of members of the Pakistani Taliban inside neighboring Afghanistan. Tensions are rising between Pakistan’s military and the Afghan Taliban, which claimed the attacks killed at least eight people.
292,000: A new report from the Institute for Public Policy Research argues that Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s plan to move asylum-seekers from the UK to Rwanda while their claims are evaluated could cost the British taxpayer $292,000 per person. Compare that with about 70,000 per person if migrants were allowed to remain in the UK during that period.
317: The Bank of Japan ended eight years of negative interest rates on Tuesday, raising the interest rate from -0.1% to 0%-0.1%, its first hike in 17 years. The historic move, which shifts the focus away from reflating growth with monetary stimulus, follows significant wage increases by Japan’s major corporations and a rise in consumer prices. The BOJ does not anticipate further increases in the near-term.10: At least 10 people were found dead Monday in the wealthy Petion-Ville suburb of Port-au-Prince, Haiti’s capital, victims of escalating gang violence amid political chaos following Prime Minister Ariel Henry’s resignation. Homes, a bank, and a gas station were attacked, and it remains unclear who was responsible. The violence has prompted increased border security by neighbors like the Dominican Republic and evacuations of US citizens.
Leftist front-runner Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador of the National Regeneration Movement (MORENA)
Hard Numbers: Election violence in Mexico, Baby deficit in Korea, tactical nuke leak in Russia, A gigantic disappearance in the Pacific, Gaza's bleak milestone
2: Two mayoral candidates in the central Mexican farming town of Maravatío were shot dead within hours of each other earlier this week. One of the candidates was from President Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador’s Morena party, the other from the opposition National Action Party. Maravatío is in Michoacán state, where cartel wars have raged recently, spotlighting broader concerns about narco-fueled political violence across the country ahead of nationwide elections in June.
29: A cache of 29 secret Russian military documents from a decade ago appears to lay out the Kremlin’s threshold for using tactical nuclear weapons. The slides, leaked to the Financial Times by Western spooks, say Moscow would use the weapons – which are far smaller and more targeted than the intercontinental ballistic missiles that target the US – if Russia suffered an otherwise unstoppable conventional incursion, or sustained significant damage to its submarine fleets, airfields, or command centers.
0.72: South Korea’s birth rate, the world’s lowest, dipped further in 2023, according to new data which show that the average South Korean woman will have just 0.72 babies. That was down from an already dismally infertile 0.76 in 2022, and it’s far below the “replacement” rate of 2.1 children per woman. Experts say the high costs of child-rearing – as well as gender pay gaps and difficulties of balancing career and motherhood – are causing the fertility collapse.
7,000: What could have caused 7,000 of the world’s largest creatures to disappear? Scientists think that unusually high sea temperatures in the North Pacific led to the starvation of that many Humpback whales in the decade or so after 2013, as the hotter waters reduced the prevalence of their main source of food - tiny phytoplankton. The big bump in humpback deaths put a dent in what had been several decades of remarkable recovery for a species driven to the brink of extinction by hunters in the 1970s.
30,000: Over 30,000 Palestinians have been killed amid the devastating Israel-Hamas war in Gaza that began on Oct. 7, health officials in the enclave said on Thursday. It's likely that the official death toll is an undercount, given the challenges of tracking deaths in a warzone and the fact that many bodies are still under rubble. The Gaza health ministry does not distinguish between civilians and combatants in its count, but Israel estimates it's killed roughly 10,000 Palestinian militants so far.
South Korean doctors march towards the Presidential Office while holding a banner during the protest. South Korea has raised its public health alert to the highest level, authorities announced on February 23, saying health services were in crisis after thousands of doctors resigned over proposed medical reforms.
Hard Numbers: Doctors’ orders in Korea, runaway train in India, self-immolation in DC, Case closed on Nord Stream
4: The South Korean government has given junior doctors four days to end a mass walkout over government plans to increase medical school admissions. The authorities say the admissions plan is meant to solve doctor shortages, but the junior docs say med schools can’t cope with larger student bodies, and that the biggest shortfalls are actually due to low pay. At the end of the four days the government will suspend medical licenses and open criminal cases against the strikers.
43: Social media posts showed a ghost train careening through northern India on Monday, after the crew hopped out for a tea and forgot to set the parking brake. The freight train began rolling down a hill and managed to travel without a conductor for 43 miles before it was stopped by officials who laid woodblocks across the tracks. Not quite as cinematic a save as the time that guy caught a runaway Indian locomotive on a bike, but still, with 53 cars laden with stone chips barreling down the track, this version had plenty of blockbuster appeal of its own.
2: There have now been two incidents of pro-Palestine protesters setting themselves on fire in front of Israeli diplomatic buildings in the US. On Sunday, a 25 year old US airman died after igniting himself outside the Israeli embassy in Washington DC. In December, an unidentified protester self-immolated outside the consulate in Atlanta.
17: A full seventeen months after mysterious explosions rocked the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines linking Russia to Europe, Denmark has closed its investigation into the incident. The Danes follow the Swedes who did the same earlier this month. The explosions occurred in the two countries’ economic zones. Copenhagen says it’s sure there was “deliberate sabotage” but doesn’t have more than that. Remember our piece on who likely did it? Read or watch it again here.
A Russian military transport plane crashes near Yablonovo, Belgorod Region, Russia, January 24, 2024, in this screen grab from a social media video obtained by REUTERS
Hard Numbers: Accusations fly over Russian air crash, diplomats get a booze spot in Riyadh, Korea’s Dior look is a bad one, Egypt catches strays from Houthi resistance, prices stay spicy in Mexico
74: The death toll from Wednesday’s fiery crash of a Russian military plane near the Ukrainian border is up to 74. At least 65 of them were Ukrainian POWs set to be released as part of a prisoner exchange. Moscow says Kyiv shot down the plane, while Kyiv says Moscow was responsible for properly identifying the aircraft as it flew through a warzone. Both sides have been ramping up air attacks – and air defenses – as the ground phase of the war has become a rat-infested stalemate.
1: There will finally be at least one (but only one) store where foreign diplomats can buy booze in the Saudi capital of Riyadh. The location – which will cater strictly to non-Muslims vetted by the foreign ministry – is set to open in the coming weeks. The move is part of the Kingdom’s cautious ongoing efforts to liberalize its strict Islamic social rules in order to attract more tourism and non-oil investment.
2,250: The bag is back in Seoul. Last year, a video emerged showing the South Korean first lady accepting a $2,250 Dior purse as a gift from a prominent Korean-American pastor. “Don’t keep doing this,” she tells him, “never buy something as expensive as this.” In recent days, that scandal has roared back as President Yoon Suk Yeol reportedly squabbles with members of his party over how to address the issue ahead of legislative elections scheduled for April.
40: Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea are meant to pressure Israel into stopping its siege and invasion of Gaza, but the knock-on effects of that strategy are catching other countries in the crossfire. Egypt’s receipts from the Suez Canal – a major source of Cairo’s hard currency – are already 40% lower than last year, as higher risk (and insurance premiums) scare companies away from the waterway.
4.9: Inflation continued to creep upward in Mexico in January, with consumer prices rising 4.9% on an annual basis in the first half of the month, higher than analysts expected. This is the fifth straight half-month period in which prices have risen, casting doubt on the possibility of the central bank easing rates in the coming months. Mexico will hold a general election in June.North Korean leader Kim Jong Un attends the 10th Session of the 14th Supreme People's Assembly of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, at the Mansudae Assembly Hall, in Pyongyang, North Korea, January 15, 2024.
What’s Kim Jong Un playing at?
On Tuesday, North Korean state media reported that Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un had proposed changing the country’s constitution to remove all references to reunification with South Korea and to frame Seoul as the country’s “primary foe.” It echoes the rejection of reunification Kim made in his New Year’s speech and comes a week after North Korean forces fired artillery shells across their disputed maritime border with South Korea.
What’s the signal? One can only glean at the surface level domestically, but the militaristic rhetoric seems to be preparing North Koreans for hard times to continue. The state will need to continue allocating scarce resources to protect itself from its enemies, South Korea and the United States, rather than develop the country.
Jeremy Chan, a senior analyst covering North Korea for Eurasia Group, says Kim may have one eye on elections in each country as well.
“By the end of this year, Kim could be looking at an incoming President Trump, who loves exchanging love letters and potentially could be sold on a deal that actually doesn't include denuclearization; maybe something like a nuclear freeze,” Chan said. “There's light at the end of the tunnel a bit for Kim strategically from where he stands.”
South Korea’s legislative elections in April have unpopular President Yoon Suk-yeol, a North Korea hawk, fighting an uphill battle against the opposition Democratic Party, but if Pyongyang wanted to help his dovish opponents, harsh rhetoric and artillery drills would seem counterproductive.
“If you parse Kim's remarks, he's not personalizing this to Yoon or even to the conservatives,” said Chan, explaining that Kim is threatening South Korea itself, and considers leaders from all its parties to be illegitimate.
Is Kim preparing for war? Some experts are worried he is, as Robert L. Carlin and Siegfried S. Hecker laid out last week in 38North, a specialist outlet on North Korea affairs.
It’s impossible to know Kim’s intentions, and even though the US and South Korea are all but guaranteed to destroy North Korea in an open war (but likely at a brutal cost in civilian lives), Yoon is not ignoring the possibility.
After the Oct. 7 massacre in Israel, Yoon ordered the military to beef up its reconnaissance – despite Pyongyang’s annoyance – and last month, he told troops deployed on the DMZ that if fired upon, they should “take retaliatory steps” first and ask questions later.