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Zelensky and Putin in front of flags and war.
$300 Ukrainian drones vs. $100 million Russian bombers
The combined message from Kyiv could not have been clearer: we may be far smaller and – on paper at least – weaker, but we can strike hard and reach far into Russia. Using drones produced indigenously for less than the cost of an iPhone, Ukraine took out strategic bombers worth upward of $100 million each – many of which are nearly impossible to replace due to sanctions and Russia’s degraded industrial base. At a 300,000-to-one return on investment, this is the kind of asymmetric operation that can upend the rules of modern warfare.
Just as significant as the material damage is what the attacks revealed: that a small but determined and innovative nation can deploy cheap, scalable, and decentralized tech to challenge a much larger, conventionally superior foe – and even degrade elements of a nuclear superpower’s second-strike capacity. The lessons will reverberate globally, from Taipei to Islamabad.
Perhaps the biggest impact of Ukraine’s battlefield coup may be to challenge the core strategic presumption that has guided Vladimir Putin’s thinking for over three years: that time is on his side. Since the invasion began, Putin has bet on outlasting Ukraine – grinding down its defenses, draining Western support, and waiting for the political winds in Washington and Europe to shift. That assumption has underpinned his refusal to negotiate seriously. But the success of Ukraine’s drone and sabotage operations challenges that theory of victory. It shows that Ukraine is not simply holding the line or surviving a war of attrition; it is shifting the battlefield and expanding the costs of continued war for Russia in ways the Kremlin has not anticipated.
That shift matters, especially in the diplomatic context. The timing of the drone campaign – just 24 hours before a direct round of talks between Russian and Ukrainian officials in Istanbul – was hardly coincidental. Kyiv’s actions were designed to signal that Ukraine is not negotiating from a position of weakness and won’t be coerced into a bad deal. Though the Istanbul meeting itself was predictably fruitless – lasting just over an hour and reinforcing the irreconcilability of the two sides’ positions – the fact that the Kremlin showed up fresh off such a high-profile embarrassment suggests it may be starting to realize that Ukraine has cards to play and continuing the war carries risks for Russia.
This may not be enough to bring Russia to the negotiating table in good faith, but it could make it more open to limited agreements. To be sure, a permanent peace settlement remains as distant as ever. Kyiv continues to push for an unconditional ceasefire that Russia rejects out of hand. In Istanbul, Moscow proposed two equally unacceptable alternatives: either Kyiv retreats from Russian-claimed territories or accepts limits on its ability to rearm, including a halt to Western military aid. But the right kind of pressure from the United States, coordinated with European allies, could now stand a better chance of extracting a first-phase deal – whether that’s a 30-day ceasefire, a humanitarian corridor, or a prisoner swap – that could then potentially turn into something bigger and more durable.
At the same time, Ukraine’s gains increase the tail risks of dangerous escalation. Russia’s deterrent posture has been eroded. Putin’s red lines – on NATO enlargement, Western weapons use, attacks inside Russia – have been crossed repeatedly without serious consequence. That makes him look weak but also increases the risk that he will feel compelled to escalate the conflict more dramatically to restore his credibility at home and abroad.
Russia’s immediate response to the recent attacks will be more of the same: heavier indiscriminate bombing of Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. But a darker possibility is that, boxed in and humiliated, Putin might consider a tactical nuclear strike. The threshold for such an extreme step is high – not least because China, Russia’s most important global partner, strongly opposes nuclear use. That scenario remains unlikely, but less so than before June 1. And Putin is emboldened by the belief that the West – particularly Trump – fears direct military confrontation more than anything. If he assesses that Russia’s position in the war is becoming untenable or its conventional deterrence is crumbling, his calculus could change.
Ukraine has just reminded the Kremlin – and the world – that it can shape events, not just react to them. This doesn’t put it on a path to victory or bring the war to an end. But by showing that it has leverage and that Moscow has more to lose than it thought, Ukraine has altered the strategic equation and opened a narrow window for diplomacy – even if the endgame remains as elusive as ever. The alternative is a deeper and more unpredictable conflict that grows more dangerous the longer it drags on.
South Korea's President-elect Lee Jae-myung waves as he leaves to meet his supporters, in Incheon, South Korea, June 3, 2025.
What We’re Watching: South Korea's election results, Ukraine strikes Crimean bridge, Sudan's government disolves
Lee Jae-myung poised for victory in South Korea’s election
Progressive candidate Lee Jae-myung is expected to soundly defeat conservative opponent Kim Moon-soo in the Korean presidential election, with exit polls showing him winning by 12 points. Lee shifted to the center during the campaign, but his political history may indicate otherwise – his victory could also signal a more cozy relationship with long-time rival China. To read more about how his election could realign the Indo-Pacific, click here.
Ukraine strikes key Crimean bridge
Ukraine launched a powerful underwater explosion damaging the Kerch Bridge on Tuesday, a critical road and rail link between Russia and occupied Crimea. The attack, following a drone strike on Russian bombers on Sunday, signals Ukraine’s increasing reach and resolve. Peace talks remain deadlocked, and this attack is unlikely to bridge the gap.
Sudan’s new Prime Minister dissolves government amid ongoing civil war
Sudanese Prime Minister Kamil Idris dissolved the caretaker government on Sunday, just a day after taking office, signaling a major political setback amid a devastating civil war that has so far displaced 14 million people. Idris, who was to be the first civilian leader since 2022, offered no timeline for forming a new government
Black Sea grain deal commercial vessels wait to pass the Bosphorus Strait near Istanbul, Turkey.
Russia kills Ukraine grain deal
On Monday, Russia confirmed that the Ukrainian grain deal was "suspended" after the last extension expired. The Kremlin did not give a reason, but the announcement occurred just hours after Moscow claimed that Ukraine had attacked the Kerch bridge connecting the Crimea peninsula to the Russian mainland. Kyiv has denied responsibility.
Although the Russian government denied a connection, this is almost an exact repeat of what happened last October, when Russia temporarily pulled out of the UN- and Turkey-brokered agreement to export Ukrainian grain from the Black Sea following a drone attack on the same bridge. The crossing has been of great symbolic value for the Russians since they annexed Crimea in 2014 and is a crucial artery to support its war effort in southern Ukraine.
Prior to the latest Kerch bridge attack, to extend the grain deal Russia had demanded more exports of ammonia (a key ingredient in fertilizer) and that the EU reconnect the Russian Agriculture Bank to SWIFT, the global electronic payments network. Neither happened before the deadline expired Monday.
The suspension is a very big deal for global food security. For one thing, it’ll disproportionately hurt Global South countries that are highly reliant on imports from the two sunflower superpowers and vulnerable to high food prices. Many of those nations are also Russia’s closest friends across the developing world, which gives Vladimir Putin a strong reason to agree to another extension in the coming days — as he ultimately did the last time the deal fell apart.
Ukraine taking the battle to Russia
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
What should we expect from Xi Jinping's visit to Saudi Arabia?
A lot more investment. The Chinese expect themselves to be one of the last men standing in terms of global energy demand for fossil fuels. The Saudis, of course, the cheapest major producers out there, think in the transition they'll be the last man standing in terms of supply, and that really aligns these countries much more than with the United States over the medium- to long-term. I'm also really interested in any conversations about security because behind the scenes, the Chinese have been talking to a lot of countries about where they might put their first military base in the Middle East. The whisper is Oman. Something to watch out for going forward.
And sticking with China, what might the relaxation of its zero COVID policy look like?
Well, I mean, incremental until we start to see much larger numbers of the Chinese elderly getting vaccinated. Those numbers are way too low for the over 80-year-old crowd, but it's close to a mandate what the Chinese are planning on finally implementing by the end of January. Until then, I think it's going to be more willingness to allow people to have more targeted quarantines and lockdowns for shorter periods of time, more flexibility, and more people are allowed to travel, how people are allowed to live on a day-to-day basis, but still plenty of popular anger about the fact that their lives are becoming inconvenienced dramatically by all of these lockdowns and slowdowns. And, of course, supply chain impact on Chinese economic growth.
Is Ukraine taking the battle to Russia?
Yeah, we saw that with Kerch Bridge and the ability of the Russians to link directly to Crimea. Now, we see it with three different Ukrainian drone strikes against Russian bases, one of which deep in Russian territory, not so far from Moscow. That really does show a growing Ukrainian military capabilities with all the support from NATO going forward. From Russia's perspective, it justifies Russian attacks against Ukrainian critical infrastructure. It's not a game changer at this point, but it certainly shows that the impact that this war is having on both sides, Russian economic impact long-term, Ukrainian civil and human impact long-term, is growing, and growing, and growing.