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Norway's PM Jonas Støre says his country can power Europe
Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Støre is optimistic about his country’s progress in the global energy transition, particularly regarding the pivot from reliance on fossil fuels to a broader adoption of renewable energy sources. And given Norway’s increased importance in supplying Europe with energy, the transition could not come a moment too soon. “I think the energy transition is happening... For the first time you have written down in text all agreeing that there will be a transition out of fossil fuels,” Støre tells Ian in a wide-ranging interview for GZERO World on the sidelines of the Munich Security conference. Støre extolls the significant strides being made despite the prevailing geopolitical tensions and environmental challenges.
Støre points out the collaborative spirit of the international community, which he witnessed at COP 28. The Prime Minister emphasizes the importance of market incentives, technological innovation, and political will in driving these changes. “You cannot make it unless you make the market economy be at the service of the transition." Støre and Ian also touch on the need for a loss and damages fund to support the countries most affected by climate change, underscoring the ongoing efforts to provide financial mechanisms for environmental preservation and sustainable development.
Watch full episode: Solving Europe's energy crisis with Norway's power
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week online and on US public television. Check local listings.
Solving Europe's energy crisis with Norway's power
Europe's energy security hinges on Norway and its transition from fossil fuels to renewable sources. That has big geopolitical implications for Ukraine and NATO.
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer delves into Europe's urgent quest for energy independence and the broader geopolitical shifts that could redefine the continent's future. With the specter of reduced US support for Ukraine after November’s election, Europe's resilience, particularly in energy security and military capabilities, takes center stage. Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Støre joins Ian to discuss Norway's critical role in this transition, emphasizing the need for a swift move from oil and gas to renewables, a monumental task that Europe and Norway are determined to undertake in a remarkably short timeframe. “Norway will transition out of oil and gas. When we pass 2030, there will be declining production, and then we want to see renewables transition upwards,” Prime Minister Jonas Støre tells Ian.
Their conversation delves into the ramifications of the US election outcome on NATO and Ukraine, underscoring Europe's precarious position should American support wane. The discussion reveals the continent's vulnerability to fuel crises and the imperative for a robust energy strategy that lessens dependency on external forces, notably by severing ties with Russian fossil fuels in response to the invasion of Ukraine. “Europe's ability to assist Kyiv on the battlefield will hinge not just on military capabilities but also Europe's own energy security,” Ian explains.
This is a moment of transformation for Europe as it navigates the complexities of energy transition and geopolitical uncertainties, highlighting the interconnectedness of sustainability, security, and solidarity in facing the challenges of the 21st century.
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week online and on US public television. Check local listings.
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- With electric bills soaring, should the EU cap natural gas prices? ›
- The Graphic Truth: EU natural gas prices plunge ›
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Young activist stage the last protest in COP28 conference venue.
Good COP, Bad COP
It was a chaotic COP28, to say the least. But after 28 years of climate negotiations, on Wednesday representatives from nearly 200 countries signed an agreement to transition away from fossil fuels.
The agreement contains much stronger language on fossil fuels compared to a previous proposal, which said nations “could” take actions to slash greenhouse gas emissions, giving fossil fuel-producing countries – including COP28’s host, the United Arab Emirates – the option to not give up the Golden Goose.
President Sultan al-Jaber, an Emirati oil company executive leading the talks, gavelled in approval of this earlier version on Wednesday morning without giving critics a chance to speak, and when representatives of small island nations – who have been outspoken that they “will not go silently to [their] watery graves'' – were not present. Al-Jaber’s statement that there was “no science” to support a phaseout sparked an uproar, sending the conference into overtime.
The US and Canada joined forces with small island nations to insist that a fossil fuel phaseout make it into the agreement. In the end, the countries compromised to “transition away” from fossil fuels. This is the first time the root cause of the climate crisis has been stated in a decision in nearly 30 years of environment talks.
But critics say the final document contains “a litany of loopholes.” Fossil fuels are just called “transitional fuels” and are condoned to “facilitate the energy transition.” It legitimizes gas burning on the basis that it is less polluting than coal, though liquefied natural gas may be worse than coal due to methane leaks.
After a year of devastating natural disasters, Canada came to the conference as the only major oil-producing country to implement an emissions cap. Ottawa also announced the world’s most ambitious methane regulations it claims will lead to emissions reductions of at least 75% by 2030. It is also the first G20 nation to phase out fossil fuel subsidies, two years ahead of the deadline.
Meanwhile, the US had less to be proud of. While the Inflation Reduction Act marked the most aggressive climate investment in US history, oil and gas production is at record highs, and it is planning continued expansion, especially in LNG.
Talk is cheap. The agreement called for a tripling of renewable energy by 2030. But whether that can happen depends on how much money is offered for emerging economies and low-income countries, and how soon. All details are left for next year's COP, which will be hosted by Azerbaijan, another petrostate. However, a $700 million fund was formally established to offer money to countries that have suffered irreparable economic losses and damages, and the World Bank and the IMF were called upon to expedite loans for energy projects in developing countries.
A key test for national governments will come in 2025, when every country is expected to set its next round of climate targets. COP30 is the one to watch, as it will be held in the Brazilian Amazon, a region on the frontlines of the climate change crisis, which is expected to amplify the voices of vulnerable countries.
Graphic Truth: Global fossil fuel subsidies on the rise
In 2022, the International Monetary Fund crunched the numbers and found that governments were spending a whopping $7 trillion on fossil fuel subsidies. The colossal sum spent on these grants and tax incentives was largely driven by the war in Ukraine and its ripple effect on energy prices. But it wasn’t an outlier; the trend had already been on an upward trajectory as economies surged in the Global South, which suggests it is likely to continue unless there is a global transition to green energy.
To put these numbers into perspective, government backing for fossil fuels represents over 7% of the world's GDP, dwarfing other crucial budget items like education spending, which amounts to a mere 4.3% of the global GDP.
According to the IMF, curbing these subsidies could not only realign humanity with climate goals but also save 1.6 million lives annually and boost government coffers by $4.4 trillion.
Episode 5: Energy transition today
Listen: "It actually all comes down to one thing and that's money," says Raad Alkadiri, Managing Director of Energy, Climate and Resources at Eurasia Group. "Will there be the money for investment in renewables, in energy efficiency made available? And I'm not just talking about the industrialized world, I'm talking about globally."
In the latest episode of Living Beyond Borders, a podcast produced in partnership between GZERO and Citi Global Wealth Investments, Alkadiri is joined by Malcolm Spittler, Global Investment Strategist and Senior US Economist at Citi Global Wealth Investments, to look at where the energy transition to renewable fuels stands globally, after setbacks from the pandemic and geopolitical instability.
They discuss the increasing need for energy security being a big driver for renewable energy in regions like Europe, how the war in Ukraine is still affecting energy markets, and what kinds of investments need to happen in technology and infrastructure to realize more sustainable and cleaner energy globally.
Malcolm Spittler
Global Investment Strategist & Senior US Economist, Citi Global Wealth Investments
Raad Alkadiri
Managing Director of Energy, Climate and Resources, Eurasia Group
Shari Friedman
Managing Director of Climate and Sustainability, Eurasia Group
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Dambisa Moyo: Europe's energy transition needs more than a "band-aid solution"
Most countries around the world understand that sooner or later they will need to transition to using more clean energy. But in the meantime, they still rely on over a hundred million barrels of oil per day.
What's more Russia's war in Ukraine has underscored our dependence on fossil fuels for energy.
“We hadn't anticipated that there'd be a war that would create these shocks. And that puts us slightly offside,” renowned economist Dambisa Moyo tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.
And what's the right way to move forward? For Moyo, Europe needs to ditch what she calls "industrial band-aid solutions" instead of the structural reforms needed to kick the Russian energy habit.
Watch the GZERO World episode: Struggling for economic progress as global recession looms in 2023
Climate disinformation back to denying it exists, says UN's Melissa Fleming
People are a lot more worried about climate change than they used to be. And they are also very concerned about disinformation related to climate.
"We're seeing a disturbing spike in disinformation around climate change," Melissa Fleming, the UN's Under-Secretary-General for Global Communications, says during a Global Stage livestream conversation hosted by GZERO in partnership with Microsoft.
But what's more troubling is that the disinformation super-spreaders, she adds, have "returned now to the complete denial narrative" — it's a hoax.
Who's driving it? Advertising investments from fossil fuel companies, which for Fleming is greenwashing we should no longer tolerate.
Watch the full Global Stage livestream conversation "The Road to 2030: Getting Global Goals Back on Track."
Ukraine taking the battle to Russia
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
What should we expect from Xi Jinping's visit to Saudi Arabia?
A lot more investment. The Chinese expect themselves to be one of the last men standing in terms of global energy demand for fossil fuels. The Saudis, of course, the cheapest major producers out there, think in the transition they'll be the last man standing in terms of supply, and that really aligns these countries much more than with the United States over the medium- to long-term. I'm also really interested in any conversations about security because behind the scenes, the Chinese have been talking to a lot of countries about where they might put their first military base in the Middle East. The whisper is Oman. Something to watch out for going forward.
And sticking with China, what might the relaxation of its zero COVID policy look like?
Well, I mean, incremental until we start to see much larger numbers of the Chinese elderly getting vaccinated. Those numbers are way too low for the over 80-year-old crowd, but it's close to a mandate what the Chinese are planning on finally implementing by the end of January. Until then, I think it's going to be more willingness to allow people to have more targeted quarantines and lockdowns for shorter periods of time, more flexibility, and more people are allowed to travel, how people are allowed to live on a day-to-day basis, but still plenty of popular anger about the fact that their lives are becoming inconvenienced dramatically by all of these lockdowns and slowdowns. And, of course, supply chain impact on Chinese economic growth.
Is Ukraine taking the battle to Russia?
Yeah, we saw that with Kerch Bridge and the ability of the Russians to link directly to Crimea. Now, we see it with three different Ukrainian drone strikes against Russian bases, one of which deep in Russian territory, not so far from Moscow. That really does show a growing Ukrainian military capabilities with all the support from NATO going forward. From Russia's perspective, it justifies Russian attacks against Ukrainian critical infrastructure. It's not a game changer at this point, but it certainly shows that the impact that this war is having on both sides, Russian economic impact long-term, Ukrainian civil and human impact long-term, is growing, and growing, and growing.