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Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting with Head of the Federal Service for Financial Monitoring Yury Chikhanchin at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, on July 8, 2025.
Russia’s dark future
At first glance, Russia has coped well under the weight of Ukraine-related Western sanctions. In 2024, its economy grew at a faster rate than every G7 country. Though Europe has gone almost entirely cold turkey on Russian oil and gas supplies, thirst for these resources in China and India, quenched by a shadow tanker fleet that helps evade those sanctions, has kept Russia’s energy trade stable.
Longer term, climate change can help. Warming temperatures will open new Russian lands to farming and boost its agricultural output. They will open new sea routes that lower Russia’s cost of commerce and bring revenue from transit fees imposed on others. Perhaps most importantly, the Kremlin has long claimed it can transition from its currently heavy reliance on oil and gas exports to deeper investment in wind, hydro, geothermal, biomass, hydrogen, and solar energy.
But the realities of Russia’s future are darkening.
Its economy has become addicted to war in Ukraine. Its growth over the past two years was fueled mainly by the tidal wave of military spending needed to eke out modest gains in what’s become a war of attrition. Military and security spending now make up about 40% of Russia’s total government expenditure. This spending surge is sending inflation into overdrive, forcing Russia’s central bank to raise interest rates to a record 21%, raising borrowing costs for businesses and slowing future investment. Manufacturing has slowed and ordinary Russians aren’t spending.
None of this will persuade President Vladimir Putin to cut a deal with Ukraine – and that’s Russia’s bigger problem. Current evidence suggests Putin intends to keep doubling down on a war that leaves a supposed great military power to take 1,000 casualties per day to make tentative gains of a few kilometers, to kill Ukrainian civilians, and to laud slow advances on individual towns and villages in a war that’s already dragged on for three years and four months.
In addition, while China and India remain eager to buy the energy Russia pumps out of the ground, they know the loss of Moscow’s best customers in Europe allows them to buy the product at a below-market price. China, with an economy nearly nine times larger than Russia’s, has done remarkably little to help Putin win his war. India has shifted large volumes of arms purchases from Russia to the United States. The Kremlin’s trade problem is compounded by the reality that even ending the war with Ukraine won’t bring mistrustful Europeans to return to their former volumes of trade with Russia.
But Russia’s biggest problems are found inside its borders. Longtime reliance on the revenue from exports of oil, gas, metals, and minerals has allowed Russia to avoid large-scale investment in the digital-age industries needed for an innovative 21st-century economy. The most recent credible measure of this comes from the Global Innovation Index 2024, produced by the World Intellectual Property Organization, a UN agency. According to the report, which measures entrepreneurship and innovation-driven growth and development across 133 countries, Russia ranks 59th in the world, behind Mauritius, Georgia, and North Macedonia.
This problem probably has many sources – an economy dominated by well-connected elites who don’t need innovation to remain wealthy, a lack of entrepreneurial tradition, and increased investment focus on a war Russia isn’t winning. But the larger challenge facing Russia is the depletion of the generation of young people that might help solve these problems. A report last month from the Center for Strategic and International Studies found “250,000 Russian soldiers have died in Ukraine, with over 950,000 total Russian casualties.” That’s a tremendous blow for Russia’s potentially most productive generation, with no end of the sacrifice in sight. Here’s another: aware of both Russia’s long-term economic problems and the much more urgent problem of avoiding war, nearly one million Russians have fled the country in search of better opportunities since the earliest days of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
Russia, a resource-rich country with 11 time zones and an economy about half the size of California’s, still depends almost entirely for its great-power claims on its stockpile of nuclear weapons, the world’s largest. But these are weapons that can only be used at high risk of self-annihilation, and Russia’s sophisticated arsenal of cyber-weapons is useful only for undermining other countries.
Worst of all, it’s hard to imagine any Kremlin change of direction toward creating a more dynamic and innovative Russia anytime soon. The war in Ukraine grinds on. For now, Putin and his enablers seem content to define Russia’s “greatness” solely by its ability to disrupt and punish others.
Resource-rich Alaska is crucial to the future of energy in America — Gov. Dunleavy
On GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy paints a picture of the state as a powerhouse of energy and resources, stressing, "We are an energy and economic giant, and we are the Arctic and Western Pacific Sovereign for the United States of America." Dunleavy highlights its proximity to an abundance of natural wealth—including the world’s largest gold mine and North America's largest graphite mine. "We still have billions of barrels of oil. We have over a hundred trillion cubic feet of gas that we're trying to market," Dunleavy emphasizes, positioning Alaska as crucial to America's energy future.
And, he adds, Alaska’s ability to mine these valuable resources is happening despite, rather than thanks to, the Biden administration and its penchant to view the state as "a large national park.” This, according to Dunleavy, hinders Alaska's ability to fully leverage its resources, stating, "Oftentimes we are not supported in our efforts to develop lands in Alaska that could produce minerals, that could produce more oil and gas, that could harvest our timber."
Despite these obstacles, Dunleavy remains optimistic, predicting that "the next 50 years will belong to Alaska" due to its vast resource base and strategic global position. He envisions Alaska playing a pivotal role in the global energy market, both in fossil fuels and renewables, provided that federal attitudes and policies evolve to support rather than hinder the state's ambition
Watch full episode: As the Arctic melts, Alaska's importance grows
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
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Norway's PM Jonas Støre says his country can power Europe
Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Støre is optimistic about his country’s progress in the global energy transition, particularly regarding the pivot from reliance on fossil fuels to a broader adoption of renewable energy sources. And given Norway’s increased importance in supplying Europe with energy, the transition could not come a moment too soon. “I think the energy transition is happening... For the first time you have written down in text all agreeing that there will be a transition out of fossil fuels,” Støre tells Ian in a wide-ranging interview for GZERO World on the sidelines of the Munich Security conference. Støre extolls the significant strides being made despite the prevailing geopolitical tensions and environmental challenges.
Støre points out the collaborative spirit of the international community, which he witnessed at COP 28. The Prime Minister emphasizes the importance of market incentives, technological innovation, and political will in driving these changes. “You cannot make it unless you make the market economy be at the service of the transition." Støre and Ian also touch on the need for a loss and damages fund to support the countries most affected by climate change, underscoring the ongoing efforts to provide financial mechanisms for environmental preservation and sustainable development.
Watch full episode: Solving Europe's energy crisis with Norway's power
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week online and on US public television. Check local listings.
- Ian Explains: If the US steps back from Ukraine, can Europe go it alone? ›
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Solving Europe's energy crisis with Norway's power
Europe's energy security hinges on Norway and its transition from fossil fuels to renewable sources. That has big geopolitical implications for Ukraine and NATO.
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer delves into Europe's urgent quest for energy independence and the broader geopolitical shifts that could redefine the continent's future. With the specter of reduced US support for Ukraine after November’s election, Europe's resilience, particularly in energy security and military capabilities, takes center stage. Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Støre joins Ian to discuss Norway's critical role in this transition, emphasizing the need for a swift move from oil and gas to renewables, a monumental task that Europe and Norway are determined to undertake in a remarkably short timeframe. “Norway will transition out of oil and gas. When we pass 2030, there will be declining production, and then we want to see renewables transition upwards,” Prime Minister Jonas Støre tells Ian.
Their conversation delves into the ramifications of the US election outcome on NATO and Ukraine, underscoring Europe's precarious position should American support wane. The discussion reveals the continent's vulnerability to fuel crises and the imperative for a robust energy strategy that lessens dependency on external forces, notably by severing ties with Russian fossil fuels in response to the invasion of Ukraine. “Europe's ability to assist Kyiv on the battlefield will hinge not just on military capabilities but also Europe's own energy security,” Ian explains.
This is a moment of transformation for Europe as it navigates the complexities of energy transition and geopolitical uncertainties, highlighting the interconnectedness of sustainability, security, and solidarity in facing the challenges of the 21st century.
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week online and on US public television. Check local listings.
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- The Graphic Truth: Natural gas prices make EU power costs soar ›
- Norway's school phone ban aims to reclaim "stolen focus", says PM Jonas Støre ›
- With electric bills soaring, should the EU cap natural gas prices? ›
- The Graphic Truth: EU natural gas prices plunge ›
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Young activist stage the last protest in COP28 conference venue.
Good COP, Bad COP
It was a chaotic COP28, to say the least. But after 28 years of climate negotiations, on Wednesday representatives from nearly 200 countries signed an agreement to transition away from fossil fuels.
The agreement contains much stronger language on fossil fuels compared to a previous proposal, which said nations “could” take actions to slash greenhouse gas emissions, giving fossil fuel-producing countries – including COP28’s host, the United Arab Emirates – the option to not give up the Golden Goose.
President Sultan al-Jaber, an Emirati oil company executive leading the talks, gavelled in approval of this earlier version on Wednesday morning without giving critics a chance to speak, and when representatives of small island nations – who have been outspoken that they “will not go silently to [their] watery graves'' – were not present. Al-Jaber’s statement that there was “no science” to support a phaseout sparked an uproar, sending the conference into overtime.
The US and Canada joined forces with small island nations to insist that a fossil fuel phaseout make it into the agreement. In the end, the countries compromised to “transition away” from fossil fuels. This is the first time the root cause of the climate crisis has been stated in a decision in nearly 30 years of environment talks.
But critics say the final document contains “a litany of loopholes.” Fossil fuels are just called “transitional fuels” and are condoned to “facilitate the energy transition.” It legitimizes gas burning on the basis that it is less polluting than coal, though liquefied natural gas may be worse than coal due to methane leaks.
After a year of devastating natural disasters, Canada came to the conference as the only major oil-producing country to implement an emissions cap. Ottawa also announced the world’s most ambitious methane regulations it claims will lead to emissions reductions of at least 75% by 2030. It is also the first G20 nation to phase out fossil fuel subsidies, two years ahead of the deadline.
Meanwhile, the US had less to be proud of. While the Inflation Reduction Act marked the most aggressive climate investment in US history, oil and gas production is at record highs, and it is planning continued expansion, especially in LNG.
Talk is cheap. The agreement called for a tripling of renewable energy by 2030. But whether that can happen depends on how much money is offered for emerging economies and low-income countries, and how soon. All details are left for next year's COP, which will be hosted by Azerbaijan, another petrostate. However, a $700 million fund was formally established to offer money to countries that have suffered irreparable economic losses and damages, and the World Bank and the IMF were called upon to expedite loans for energy projects in developing countries.
A key test for national governments will come in 2025, when every country is expected to set its next round of climate targets. COP30 is the one to watch, as it will be held in the Brazilian Amazon, a region on the frontlines of the climate change crisis, which is expected to amplify the voices of vulnerable countries.
Graphic Truth: Global fossil fuel subsidies on the rise
In 2022, the International Monetary Fund crunched the numbers and found that governments were spending a whopping $7 trillion on fossil fuel subsidies. The colossal sum spent on these grants and tax incentives was largely driven by the war in Ukraine and its ripple effect on energy prices. But it wasn’t an outlier; the trend had already been on an upward trajectory as economies surged in the Global South, which suggests it is likely to continue unless there is a global transition to green energy.
To put these numbers into perspective, government backing for fossil fuels represents over 7% of the world's GDP, dwarfing other crucial budget items like education spending, which amounts to a mere 4.3% of the global GDP.
According to the IMF, curbing these subsidies could not only realign humanity with climate goals but also save 1.6 million lives annually and boost government coffers by $4.4 trillion.
Episode 5: Energy transition today
Listen: "It actually all comes down to one thing and that's money," says Raad Alkadiri, Managing Director of Energy, Climate and Resources at Eurasia Group. "Will there be the money for investment in renewables, in energy efficiency made available? And I'm not just talking about the industrialized world, I'm talking about globally."
In the latest episode of Living Beyond Borders, a podcast produced in partnership between GZERO and Citi Global Wealth Investments, Alkadiri is joined by Malcolm Spittler, Global Investment Strategist and Senior US Economist at Citi Global Wealth Investments, to look at where the energy transition to renewable fuels stands globally, after setbacks from the pandemic and geopolitical instability.
They discuss the increasing need for energy security being a big driver for renewable energy in regions like Europe, how the war in Ukraine is still affecting energy markets, and what kinds of investments need to happen in technology and infrastructure to realize more sustainable and cleaner energy globally.
Malcolm Spittler
Global Investment Strategist & Senior US Economist, Citi Global Wealth Investments
Raad Alkadiri
Managing Director of Energy, Climate and Resources, Eurasia Group
Shari Friedman
Managing Director of Climate and Sustainability, Eurasia Group
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Dambisa Moyo: Europe's energy transition needs more than a "band-aid solution"
Most countries around the world understand that sooner or later they will need to transition to using more clean energy. But in the meantime, they still rely on over a hundred million barrels of oil per day.
What's more Russia's war in Ukraine has underscored our dependence on fossil fuels for energy.
“We hadn't anticipated that there'd be a war that would create these shocks. And that puts us slightly offside,” renowned economist Dambisa Moyo tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.
And what's the right way to move forward? For Moyo, Europe needs to ditch what she calls "industrial band-aid solutions" instead of the structural reforms needed to kick the Russian energy habit.