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In these photos, emergency units carry out rescue work after a Russian attack in Ternopil and Prikarpattia oblasts on December 13, 2024. A large-scale Russian missile attack on Ukraine's energy infrastructure left half of the consumers in the Ternopil region without electricity, the Ternopil Regional State Administration reported.
Hard Numbers: Russia hits the heaters in Ukraine, EU Commish survives no-confidence vote, Cameroon’s president runs it back again, scientists find “rogue star”
8: Cameroon’s 92-year-old president Paul Biya has already done it again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again – and this Sunday he will seek re-election yet again, for his 8th term in office. His health is so poor that last year he was briefly believed to be dead, and he has only appeared in one campaign event, but he’ll likely win, having disqualified his most prominent challenger.
2: EU Commissioner Ursula von der Leyen comfortably survived two separate no-confidence votes in the European Parliament on Thursday. The measures were brought to the floor by groups from the left and from the right. Both accused von der Leyen of rolling over in trade talks with the US, and for pursuing a deal with the South American Mercosur bloc that could hurt Europe’s farmers.
6 billion: The rules-based order really is falling apart, everywhere. Astronomers have identified a “young rogue planet” hundreds of light years from Earth that is currently “gobbling up” its surroundings at a rate of 6 billion tons per second. No word on whether the UN Security Council will issue a statement urging planet “Cha 1107-7626” to stop this unprovoked expansion, but scientists are excited about the insights that it provides on early planet formation.
America’s short-term wins vs. long-term risks
The US economy looks unstoppable, with booming markets, surging productivity, and foreign investment pouring in. In this Quick Take, Ian Bremmer warns that short-term success may hide long-term dangers.
“I’m worried about immigration, education, and energy,” he says.
From deterring skilled immigrants to undermining world-class universities and lagging behind China on post-carbon energy, the US risks trading future competitiveness for temporary gains.
“The United States remains the most powerful country in the world,” Ian notes, “but that power comes from its economy and military, not its political system. And that’s a long-term problem.”
September 28, 2025, Tehran, Iran: Iranian lawmakers participate in an open session of parliament. Iran has recalled its envoys to Britain, France, and Germany for consultations after the three countries.
Do additional sanctions on Iran make a difference now?
The European Union confirmed on Monday that it has reinstated sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program, following the United Nations’ decision over the weekend to reimpose its own penalties.
The move piles fresh punishment onto an economy already battered by a collapsing currency, soaring inflation and deficits, and chronic shortages of water and energy. Iran is also still reeling from the 12-day war in June, which included US airstrikes on its three main nuclear sites and a wave of Israeli attacks on sensitive government targets.
What’s in these sanctions? They reinstate bans on arms imports and on the transfer of dual-use technologies that could support a nuclear program. The measures also freeze the assets of individuals linked to Iran’s missile and nuclear efforts, impose travel bans on sanctioned officials, and authorize inspections of Iranian cargo, including oil shipments. All of this comes atop extensive financial sanctions that the US has imposed since 2018.
Why are they called “snapback” sanctions? They were previously lifted, as part of a 2015 nuclear deal between Iran, the US, and Europe, on the condition that Iran continue to allow international inspection of its nuclear programs to ensure that they are for peaceful use. The US exited that deal in 2018, reimposing sanctions, but European partners continued some of its terms. After the war with Israel, Iran suspended access to inspectors, opening the way for these sanctions to automatically “snap back” into place.
Economic impact. The effects are already rippling out over Iran’s currency markets. The rial is now trading at more than a million per US dollar and fell another 4% on the black market on Saturday. That slide is eroding the purchasing power of the middle class and squeezing quality of life. Eurasia Group Iran expert Greg Brew described the sanctions’ practical impact as “largely symbolic and psychological,” warning that they will deepen public disillusionment by reducing prospects for diplomacy and long-promised sanctions relief.
“The impact of the last few years of sanctions has been to increase inequality in Iran,” says Brew. “More of the wealth and more of the power is moving upward, while the middle class has been squeezed and shrunk.”
Could that generate a fresh wave of protests? Possibly, as Iran has seen a number of economic-driven protests in recent years. But the political impact would likely be limited, in Brew’s view. "Iran has no organized political opposition,” he says, “There's really no locus around which the opposition can mobilize and the internal repressive apparatus is still as large and as powerful as it has always been, if not more."
Nuclear diplomacy stalled. The purpose of the sanctions is to pressure Iran to return to meeting its obligations under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which requires Tehran to forswear nuclear weapons development and accept international inspections.
"What we're looking at in the short term is Iran remaining within the NPT in name only," says Brew. Since the 12-day War, Iran has been skirting the treaty’s spirit by denying inspectors access to key facilities and refusing to clarify the status of its enriched uranium. The regime has made the decision to weather more sanctions rather than allow international inspections, underscoring the question: what, exactly, is going on at Iran’s nuclear facilities now?
China is winning the clean energy race
As the world speeds up the transition to renewables and away from fossil fuels, China is betting bigger than anyone else on the energy technologies that will power the world for decades to come. Environmentalist and author Bill McKibben joins Ian Bremmer on GZERO World to talk about Beijing’s wholehearted embrace of clean energy compared to the US. It’s not just that they’re manufacturing solar panels or putting up wind farms, McKibben says, they’re investing in a technology that will transform the global economy.
Energy demand is rising, driven in large part by data centers that power AI, and McKibben argues that the only way to meet that demand is with cheap, clean energy. While it’s true China still burns large amounts of coal, increasingly it’s used as a second or third tier power source because of the cost compared to solar and wind. China’s investment in renewable energy gives them a competitive edge in technologies that will reshape the balance of power—literally and figuratively.
“China become the world's first electro state,” McKibben says, “They're learning how to use that flood of cheap clean energy to run everything around them.”
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔). GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
Renewable energy and the case for climate optimism with Bill McKibben
Is the clean energy revolution finally here? Over the past few years, the world has experienced a sudden and overwhelming surge in renewable energy installation and generation, outpacing even the most optimistic predictions from experts. This week on the GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer talks to with Bill McKibben, an environmentalist and author, about the stakes and scale of the global energy transformation. His new book, "Here Comes the Sun," argues renewables aren’t just a climate fix—they’re a political and economic opportunity.
Costs from solar and wind have dropped so dramatically in the last 36 months that they’re now the cheapest way to produce electricity worldwide. And energy independence has become a national security issue amid so much global instability. But while China and Europe are pushing ahead in the race to power the future, the Trump administration is doubling down on fossil fuels. What happens if the US puts the brakes on clean energy, just as the rest of the world hits the gas? Or rather... plugs in the solar battery? Do we risk being left in the dark?
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Big oil is getting big mad at Trump
So far, Trump's approach to energy policy is to maximize US fossil fuel production that keeps the price of gasoline low, and it's been a winning formula. But in the latest episode of The Debrief, Eurasia Group energy analyst Gregory Brew says the Big Oil honeymoon may be coming to an end.
First, his sweeping tariffs announced earlier this year, shocked oil markets and sent the price of oil tumbling at the same time. Tariffs on things like imported steel means rising costs for US oil companies. It's now more expensive to drill a well in the United States than it was a year ago. Second, Trump is anxious to preserve his relationship with Saudi Arabia, a major oil producer, and also the head of OPEC. As a result, Trump has turned a blind eye to OPEC policy of increasing oil production this year, which has pushed prices down even further. Low prices. Rising costs means less profits for US oil companies. So why does that matter? Well, less profits means fewer jobs, a slowdown in activity and economic pain in places like North Dakota and Texas Centers of the US oil industry that also happen to be deep red states where Trump generally maintains high levels of support. That means some trouble for Trump moving into next year's midterm elections by November of 2026. Drill baby drill might seem like a hollow mantra, and that might hurt Trump's brand where it matters most.
U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell attends a press conference following the issuance of the Federal Open Market Committee's statement on interest rate policy in Washington, D.C., U.S., June 18, 2025
Hard Numbers: Fed holds interest rates, Canada’s population stays flat, LNG plant to open in B.C., US nabs suspects in “largest jewelry heist”
4: The US Fed on Wednesday held interest rates steady for the fourth time in a row, awaiting more data on the economic impact of Donald Trump’s tariff policies. Trump himself this week blasted Fed Chair Jerome Powell as “a stupid person, frankly” for not resuming the rate cuts that began last fall.
0%: Canada recorded a population growth of 0% in the first quarter of 2025, the lowest mark since 2020. This is the sixth consecutive quarter where population growth has slowed, and it comes after the federal government voted to reduce immigration levels late last year.
14 million: Canada is set to produce liquified natural gas (LNG) for the first time this weekend when a coastal facility in British Columbia begins operating. While the nearly $30-billion plant will initially operate at just one quarter of its capacity, it is expected to ultimately export 14 million metric tonnes of LNG every year. It is the first North American LNG plant with direct access to the Pacific, meaning it can serve the voracious appetite for LNG in Asia.
$100 million: Seven men were arrested in California for the “largest jewelry heist” in US history, after stealing $100 million dollars worth of gold, gems, and watches from an armored truck near San Francisco in 2022.
Calls for Albertan separatism are getting louder: Should Carney be worried?
King Charles III’s speech on Tuesday from the throne in Ottawa was like a family reunion for Canadian politicians.
Former Prime Minister Stephen Harper was there, joking around with his old opponent Justin Trudeau, who, playing to type, wore an inappropriate pair of running shoes. Justin’s mother, Margaret Trudeau, who has known the king for 50 years, embraced the monarch.
But one important person wasn’t there: Danielle Smith, premier of Alberta. Smith, who made a pilgrimage to Mar-a-Lago in January and skipped the last gathering of Canadian premiers in Ottawa, has shown mixed feelings about the Canadian federation.
As the king’s plane was en route back to London, Smith called on Carney to respond to a series of demands meant to boost Alberta’s energy industry: build a new oil pipeline, loosen emissions and regulatory rules, scrap a tanker ban, and drop net-zero electricity requirements.
“Albertans need to see meaningful action within weeks — not months,” she threatened.
The unstated threat is Smith’s plan for a referendum that could theoretically allow Alberta to separate, after which it could, in theory, join the United States.
Smith, whose political ideology veers toward libertarianism, warned during the recent election that if easterners replaced Trudeau with Carney, it could produce an “unprecedented national unity crisis.” The day after Carney won, she presented a bill that will make it possible for Alberta to hold an independence referendum, likely next year.
The best local polling suggests that if a referendum were held today, it would fail, with only 28% of Albertans saying they’d vote to separate, compared to 67% who’d want to stay.
Numbers often change during a campaign, though, and uncertainty about the province’s future is already damaging the investment climate, so Carney faces pressure to bring Smith onside. Even his ally, Conservative Ontario Premier Doug Ford, says it’s time to show her some love.
Carney will have an opportunity to do just that when he flies to neighboring Saskatchewan to meet with Smith and the other premiers on Monday.
Carney pledged, via the king’s speech, to speed regulatory approvals so Canada can become the “world’s leading energy superpower in both clean and conventional energy.” And executives in the oil patch were cheered by a boosterish speech from his natural resources minister, Tim Hodgson. They hope that Carney and Hodgson will help them find ways to get their petroleum to foreign markets, rather than selling it at a discount to the United States.
But it is unlikely that he can deliver on Smith’s demands. British Columbians and Quebecers are both apt to resist new pipelines across their provinces, and if he removes the emissions cap, Carney risks losing support among voters worried about climate change.
Even if he does make some concessions to Alberta, chances are he won’t take the steam out of the separatist movement entirely. Smith needs to keep the separatists in her corner, rather than risk losing those voters to the province’s upstart Republican Party. That means a referendum is all but certain to go ahead.
Like former UK Prime Minister David Cameron before the Brexit referendum, Smith is trying to buy herself some time. And even Albertans who don’t want to secede still hope the threat will improve her negotiating position with Carney.
The wild card in the mix is Donald Trump, who is widely admired among the Albertan separatists and who regularly says Canada should agree to be annexed.
Could Alberta’s secessionist movement provide an opening for Trump to stir up trouble? He must know the province sits atop the world’s fourth-largest oil reserve. Does Trump look at Alberta the way Vladimir Putin once looked at the Donbas?
The stakes are high and the pressure is on Carney. He has been a successful banker, business executive, and campaigner. After his trip to Saskatchewan, Canadians might get a sense of whether he can master the difficult regional-power politics necessary to be a successful prime minister.