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Calls for Albertan separatism are getting louder: Should Carney be worried?
King Charles III’s speech on Tuesday from the throne in Ottawa was like a family reunion for Canadian politicians.
Former Prime Minister Stephen Harper was there, joking around with his old opponent Justin Trudeau, who, playing to type, wore an inappropriate pair of running shoes. Justin’s mother, Margaret Trudeau, who has known the king for 50 years, embraced the monarch.
But one important person wasn’t there: Danielle Smith, premier of Alberta. Smith, who made a pilgrimage to Mar-a-Lago in January and skipped the last gathering of Canadian premiers in Ottawa, has shown mixed feelings about the Canadian federation.
As the king’s plane was en route back to London, Smith called on Carney to respond to a series of demands meant to boost Alberta’s energy industry: build a new oil pipeline, loosen emissions and regulatory rules, scrap a tanker ban, and drop net-zero electricity requirements.
“Albertans need to see meaningful action within weeks — not months,” she threatened.
The unstated threat is Smith’s plan for a referendum that could theoretically allow Alberta to separate, after which it could, in theory, join the United States.
Smith, whose political ideology veers toward libertarianism, warned during the recent election that if easterners replaced Trudeau with Carney, it could produce an “unprecedented national unity crisis.” The day after Carney won, she presented a bill that will make it possible for Alberta to hold an independence referendum, likely next year.
The best local polling suggests that if a referendum were held today, it would fail, with only 28% of Albertans saying they’d vote to separate, compared to 67% who’d want to stay.
Numbers often change during a campaign, though, and uncertainty about the province’s future is already damaging the investment climate, so Carney faces pressure to bring Smith onside. Even his ally, Conservative Ontario Premier Doug Ford, says it’s time to show her some love.
Carney will have an opportunity to do just that when he flies to neighboring Saskatchewan to meet with Smith and the other premiers on Monday.
Carney pledged, via the king’s speech, to speed regulatory approvals so Canada can become the “world’s leading energy superpower in both clean and conventional energy.” And executives in the oil patch were cheered by a boosterish speech from his natural resources minister, Tim Hodgson. They hope that Carney and Hodgson will help them find ways to get their petroleum to foreign markets, rather than selling it at a discount to the United States.
But it is unlikely that he can deliver on Smith’s demands. British Columbians and Quebecers are both apt to resist new pipelines across their provinces, and if he removes the emissions cap, Carney risks losing support among voters worried about climate change.
Even if he does make some concessions to Alberta, chances are he won’t take the steam out of the separatist movement entirely. Smith needs to keep the separatists in her corner, rather than risk losing those voters to the province’s upstart Republican Party. That means a referendum is all but certain to go ahead.
Like former UK Prime Minister David Cameron before the Brexit referendum, Smith is trying to buy herself some time. And even Albertans who don’t want to secede still hope the threat will improve her negotiating position with Carney.
The wild card in the mix is Donald Trump, who is widely admired among the Albertan separatists and who regularly says Canada should agree to be annexed.
Could Alberta’s secessionist movement provide an opening for Trump to stir up trouble? He must know the province sits atop the world’s fourth-largest oil reserve. Does Trump look at Alberta the way Vladimir Putin once looked at the Donbas?
The stakes are high and the pressure is on Carney. He has been a successful banker, business executive, and campaigner. After his trip to Saskatchewan, Canadians might get a sense of whether he can master the difficult regional-power politics necessary to be a successful prime minister.
International markets and global energy transitions
Listen: What does global energy transition look like in a time of major geopolitical change, including rebalancing of trade? In this special episode of "Energized: The Future of Energy,” host JJ Ramberg and Enbridge CEO Greg Ebel talk to Arjun Murti, partner at Veriten and founder of the energy transition newsletter Super-Spiked. They discuss the impact of President Trump’s new energy policies, the role of North America in the global energy transition, and the possible impact of tariffs and trade tension on the energy sector. "Energized" is a podcast series from GZERO Media's Blue Circle Studios in partnership with Enbridge.
Catch up on other episodes of Energized: The Future of Energy below — or listen on Apple, Spotify, Goodpods, or wherever you get your podcasts.
President Joe Biden delivers a speech at the State Department on Jan. 13, 2025.
Biden wants AI development on federal land
Biden did express concern about the environmental impact of data centers, which consume loads of electricity to power them – and water to cool them down. “We will not let America be out-built when it comes to the technology that will define the future, nor should we sacrifice critical environmental standards and our shared efforts to protect clean air and clean water,” the president wrote in a statement.
The executive order also clears the way for the federal land to be leased to developers of “clean energy” as well, with Biden framing them as key to the expansion of AI capability in the country.
People use mobile phones during a blackout after Hurricane Rafael knocked out the country's electrical grid, in Havana, in November. On Tuesday, the island suffered yet another blackout when a major power plant failed.
Cuba suffers yet another blackout
For the third time in two months, all of Cuba was plunged into darkness as the island nation’s power infrastructure shuddered to a halt on Tuesday.
It’s the latest blow for the Caribbean country’s 11 million people, who are grinding through the worst economic crisis in decades. Rising energy prices and sluggish post-pandemic tourism have worsened the effects of economic mismanagement by the Communist government and longstanding US sanctions. In recent years, fully 10% of Cuba’s entire population fled the island altogether.
Especially painful: Cheap oil imports from friendly Venezuela have fallen. For years, Cuba has exported doctors and spies to Caracas in exchange for discounted crude. But Venezuela, struggling with US sanctions of its own, has begun prioritizing Asian buyers who can pay in hard currency. Imports from Russia and Mexico have also fallen, starving Cuba’s decrepit, oil-fired energy plants.
Politically, there has been little effect … so far. But it was only three years ago that Cuba saw its biggest anti-government protests – for food and freedom – in decades. A ferocious crackdown silenced dissent, and hundreds remain in prison, but the economic hardship has only deepened since then.
And don’t forget Los Yanquis. Donald Trump has tapped Cuban-American Sen. Marco Rubio, an ultra-hawk on Cuba, to be his top diplomat. Things are set to get darker still for the Cuban regime.
3D illustration of a robot hand reaching out to touch a lightbulb.
The AI energy crisis looms
According to a CNBC analysis of US government data, a single data center operating at 85% capacity consumes as much electricity as 710,000 households or 1.8 million people. There are currently 3,000 data centers across the US, by one estimate, with the greatest number in Virginia (477), Texas (291), and California (285). With artificial intelligence as a leading factor, power demand from data centers is expected to increase 160% by 2030, according to Goldman Sachs. And major tech companies such as Google and Microsoft have revised their environmental goals because of their AI ambitions.
The incoming Donald Trump administration promises to take a deregulatory approach across the board. Lee Zeldin, a former congressman Trump has tapped to lead the Environmental Protection Agency, said he wants to “make America the AI capital of the world.”
So all signals point to Biden’s climate goals, soon in the rearview mirror, slipping further out of grasp.
What role does natural gas play in a clean energy transition?
Listen: How does natural gas fit into the shift toward a cleaner energy future? In this episode of Energized: The Future of Energy, host JJ Ramberg and Enbridge CEO Greg Ebel sit down with former CongressmanTim Ryan of Ohio. They discuss how energy jobs have revitalized Ohio’s economy, the role workers from the energy industry could play in the upcoming US election, and how natural gas can be combined with renewables to create a cleaner, more efficient energy transition.
Catch up on other episodes of Energized: The Future of Energy below — or listen on Apple, Spotify, Goodpods, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- From AI to food recycling: Innovations transforming the energy sector ›
- Can we keep energy affordable, safe, and secure? ›
- Pulitzer Prize-winning author Daniel Yergin on energy security in a changing world ›
- Introducing “Energized: The Future of Energy”, a new podcast series ›
- Partnering for the future: Indigenous communities and energy transition - GZERO Media ›
- International markets and global energy transitions - GZERO Media ›
Partnering for the future: Indigenous communities and energy transition
Listen: Investing in infrastructure isn’t the only important factor in the energy transition. It’s also about partnering with Indigenous peoples in energy projects. In this episode of Energized: The Future of Energy, host JJ Ramberg and Enbridge CEO Greg Ebel talk to Justin Bourque, President of Athabasca Indigenous Investments, and Mark Podlasly, Chief Sustainability Officer of First Nations Major Project Coalition. They discuss how a partnership deal between Enbridge and 23 Indigenous communities in northern Alberta is improving life for those communities and how Indigenous peoples are investing in the energy transition—and their futures.
Catch up on other episodes of Energized: The Future of Energy below — or listen on Apple, Spotify, Goodpods, or wherever you get your podcasts.- From AI to food recycling: Innovations transforming the energy sector ›
- Pulitzer Prize-winning author Daniel Yergin on energy security in a changing world ›
- Introducing “Energized: The Future of Energy”, a new podcast series ›
- Energized: The Future of Energy - GZERO Media ›
- What role does natural gas play in a clean energy transition? - GZERO Media ›
From AI to food recycling: Innovations transforming the energy sector
Listen: Making change is all about innovation. That’s no different when it comes to the energy sector. In this episode of Energized: The Future of Energy, host JJ Ramberg and Enbridge CEO Greg Ebel talk to two innovators in the energy sector. First, we hear from Uli Homann, a Distinguished Architect in the Cloud and Enterprise business at Microsoft, about how generative AI is putting new strains on our energy systems—and creating new opportunities to make the grid more efficient.
Then, JJ talks with Caitlin Tessin, Vice President of Strategy and Market Innovation at Enbridge, and Ryan Begin, CEO of Divert, about how we can create natural gas from a surprising source: wasted food.
Catch up on other episodes of Energized: The Future of Energy below — or listen on Apple, Spotify, Goodpods, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- Can we keep energy affordable, safe, and secure? ›
- Pulitzer Prize-winning author Daniel Yergin on energy security in a changing world ›
- Introducing “Energized: The Future of Energy”, a new podcast series ›
- Energized: The Future of Energy - GZERO Media ›
- Partnering for the future: Indigenous communities and energy transition - GZERO Media ›
- What role does natural gas play in a clean energy transition? - GZERO Media ›