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Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney speaks with members of the media as he walks into his office after the Liberal Party staged a major political comeback to retain power in parliamentary elections, in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, on April 29, 2025.
Carney wins power, but showdown with Trump looms over Canada’s future
Prime Minister Mark Carney may have won the battle for power in Canada, but his country’s war of words with US President Donald Trump is only just beginning. And before that all begins, the Liberal leader must form a government.
Carney has options. The Liberal Party is projected to fall just three seats shy of a majority. Even so, the former Bank of England and Bank of Canada governor is unlikely to seek a confidence-and-supply agreement, according to Eurasia Group senior analyst Graeme Thompson, even though Bloc Quebecois offered him a “truce.”
“If the Liberals fall short of a bare majority, they will be in a strong enough position to govern with a minority government, seeking ad hoc support from the NDP and Bloc Quebecois on specific issues,” Thompson said.
The elephant in the room. Once Carney forms a government, his principal test will be dealing with Trump. The aim for Carney, per Thompson, will be “to secure tariff-free (or at least low-tariff) access to the US market,” and the White House’s more dovish tone on trade over the last week suggests there might be an opening. The pair agreed to meet in person some time in the near future, according to a readout from the prime minister’s office, which comes after Carney insisted on Monday that he would only visit Washington to discuss trade agreements when there was a “serious discussion to be had.”
Ian Bremmer examines the future of the US-Canada relationship in his latest World in:60 here.
What’s next for Pierre Poilievre? The Conservative leader lost his own seat – a verdict that would consign you to reality television if you were in the United Kingdom. But he also led the Tories to their largest popular vote share since 1988, and expanded the right-wing coalition, so his political future may not be dead yet.
“He’s humbled,” Thompson said, “but likely to stay on to fight another day.”
Why Mark Carney’s victory won’t heal the US-Canada rift
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Mark Carney leads the Liberals to victory in Canada. So, what's next for the US-Canada relationship?
I think sometimes you have relationship with somebody, and they do something that shocks you, you can't unsee it, I think US-Canada is like that now. I think the damage is permanent. Of course, the interdependence is immense. The dependence on the Canadian side is higher. They're a much smaller country. Their population is right next to the United States. Just a thin strip there. So, it's not like you can suddenly decouple, but there's going to be a lot of de-risking. So, strong efforts, very tough negotiations coming on trade and on security, but also an effort to build infrastructure and ship Canadian resources away from the United States, towards other countries around the world. Medium-term, that's going to be a pretty significant change in how we think about Canada.
The conclave will pick the next pope. How is it relevant for the wider geopolitical landscape?
It's relevant because, increasingly, political leaders do not inspire. So, here you have a population as large as any country, about 1.4 billion Catholics all over the world, just like India, just like China. That's the size of the global population. If the next pope that is picked is someone who is inspirational, is someone that is seen as a 21st century leader that can reflect sensibilities and ideology, values that are not seen from political leaders around the world, in your own countries, then the ability to have an impact on what gets young people out, and motivated, and inspired and engaged in public service or on the streets, and mobilized, and demonstrating becomes significant. So, I do think there's a real opportunity here, but we'll see what it means when we finally see white smoke coming out of the Vatican.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney speaks in the small hours of April 29, 2025, in Ottawa after his Liberal Party won the general election the previous day.
Mark Carney leads Canada’s Liberals to victory
The Liberals have won the battle to lead Canada. On Monday, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s party completed a stunning turnaround, with projections showing it secured 168 of 343 parliamentary seats.
Just months ago, with Justin Trudeau at the helm, the Liberals — who have been in power for a decade — were underwater in the polls, down as far as 25 points compared to the Conservatives. But Carney, Conservative Pierre Poilievre, and New Democrat Jagmeet Singh all had a mutual opponent in Donald Trump, and a surge in Canadian nationalism helped flip the momentum for the Liberals. The US president’s trade war and threats of using “economic force” to push Canada into becoming the “51st state” fueled much of the “Canada Strong” and “Restore the Promise of Canada” campaign promises of the Liberals and Conservatives, respectively.
A closer race than expected. The Liberals and Conservatives both gained seats compared to the last race in 2021. Led by Poilievre – who notably lost his seat in Ottawa – the Conservatives did better than many predicted, winning roughly 42% of the vote share and at least 144 seats. But the New Democratic Party and Bloc Québécois (which only runs candidates in Quebec) saw their parties lose seats. The NDP secured only seven ridings, down from 25, while the BQ won 23 ridings compared to 32 the last time. Despite losing in his riding, Poilievre has said he will stay on as opposition leader, while Singh has resigned as party leader in the wake of Monday’s crushing results for the NDP.
With the Liberals coming up just shy of the 172 ridings needed for a majority government, they can forge a coalition with the NDP, Bloc Québécois, or the Green Party, or they can go it alone and simply seek votes from other parties on an as-needed basis, issue by issue. Historically, the NDP has collaborated with the Liberals in confidence-and-supply agreements, while the BQ has focused on one-off support for specific issues.
In his victory speech, Carney focused on unity. “Let’s put an end to the division and anger of the past. We are all Canadian and my government will work for and with everyone,” he said.
He also pointed to the job ahead: tackling US-Canada tensions. “When I sit down with President Trump,” Carney said, “it will be to discuss the future economy and security relationship between two sovereign nations.”
“It will be our full knowledge that we have many, many other options to build prosperity for all Canadians.”
This Graphic Truth lays bare how a party in political freefall has roared back to life.
The Graphic Truth: Tracking the Liberal comeback
Despite the two parties narrowing by a point in the polls since they released their platforms this past week, looking at the arc of the race overall, it appears that the Conservatives peaked too early and the Liberals have made an impressive resurgence.
When Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland resigned — accusing the Liberal leadership of being unprepared to face the growing threat of Donald Trump — it sent shockwaves through the party and delivered a major blow to Justin Trudeau’s leadership. The Liberals were already tanking in the polls, and many saw no way back.
But since Trudeau stepped down, the party has been on a sharp upswing. Trump’s renewed threats against Canada have sparked a surge in Canadian nationalism — a momentum the Liberals have tapped into. It’s too soon to call the results, but as the election comes to a close, this Graphic Truth lays bare how a party in political freefall has roared back to life.
Special interview: Canadians head to the polls — and into the Trump vortex
With just over a week until the Canadian election, GZERO’s Tasha Kheiriddin sat down with two senior advisors at Eurasia Group to get their take: Vice Chairman Gerald Butts, who is a former advisor to Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and John Baird, former Cabinet minister under Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper.
Here’s what they had to say:
Why is Canada in an election campaign? “The prime minister needed a mandate from the people, not just his party,” said Butts, referring to newly minted PM Mark Carney, who took over from Trudeau in March.
Baird was more blunt: “Carney wanted to separate himself from the NDP–Trudeau era.” Which he seems to be doing: Under his watch the Liberals have soared nearly 20 points in the polls and are currentlypredicted to form a government.
Who are the main players? Carney, the former governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, presents “a safe, fiscally responsible concept” in Butts’ view. His main rival, populist Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, brings “a fresh approach” according to Baird, who served with Poilievre in Parliament. He sees Poilievre as “best able to speak to US President Donald Trump and his administration.”
What’s really on the ballot? Themain issue is who can most effectively deal with Trump, whose tariffs and musings about making Canada the “51st state” have enraged Canadians. So far, voters givetop marks to Carney on that question. But whichever party wins, Butts and Baird agree that the next PM faces a hostile White House. “We’re starting from scratch,” warned Butts, citing the breakdown in what used to be one of the world’s closest bilateral relationships.
Minority or majority? Both men think that a minority government would be a bad outcome. “You don’t want to be checking in with a party leader with 8% in the polls before talking to the president of the United States,” said Butts, referring to Canada’s smaller parties, the NDP and Bloc Québécois. “It’s the tail wagging the dog,” added Baird.
Advice to the next PM for dealing with Trump? “Don’t get ‘Zelenskied’ — and be prepared,” they agreed. And to the victor go the spoils, even if that victor will take over at one of the most fraught moments in Canada’s history.
“The worst day in government,” Baird quipped, “is still better than the best day in opposition.”
Watch the full interview above.
Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney during Carney's Liberal Party election campaign tour, in Brampton, Ontario, Canada April 10, 2025.
Canada celebrates tariff reprieve
On Wednesday, Prime Minister Mark Carneycalled Donald Trump’s 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs “a welcome reprieve for the global economy.”
It was indeed a welcome reprieve for Canada, which appeared to be at risk of being hit with an additional10% US tariff. As things stand, Canada is subject only to the 25% tariff on goods that are not compliant with existing free trade agreements, and a 10% rate on noncompliant energy and potash exports.
Still, Carney continued to distance Canada from the US, writing in an implicit swipe at Trump that the country must “continue to deepen its relationships with trading partners that share our values, including the free and open exchange of goods, services, and ideas.”
And, on Wednesday night, a 25% Canadian tariff on certain US vehicles and auto parts went into effect, mirroring an earlier Trump levy on the Canadian car industry.
Looking ahead: Carney says Canada’s prime minister, whoever it is after the federal election on April 28, will continue to negotiate with Trump on trade and security.
Canadian PM Mark Carney
Canadian PM calls snap election
The countdown is on! On Sunday, Prime Minister Mark Carneydissolved parliament and called a snap federal election that promises to be one of the most consequential — and hotly contested — in recent Canadian history.
Until January, Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives had maintained a two-year lead in opinion polls, which ran as high as 25% in December. But the resignation in January of unpopular Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, coupled with the return to power of US President Donald Trump, upended the race. It allowed new leader Carney, former governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, to capitalize on his financial and governance experience in the face of anxiety about Trump’s tariffs and talk of annexation. The Liberals are now neck and neck with the Conservatives and even ahead in some polls.
With the election set for April 28, the Conservatives are scrambling to retool their message, notably on the carbon tax, which Carney has now set to zero for consumers but maintained for industrial emitters. They also question Carney’s ethics, claiming he has conflicts of interest stemming from his work as chair of Brookfield Asset Management. The New Democratic Party of Jagmeet Singh is feeling the squeeze as it attempts to hold onto progressive voters, while the Bloc Québécois of Yves-François Blanchet will fight to represent Quebec’s interests in the new parliament.
For news about outgoing GZERO Publisher Evan Solomon and his decision to run for the Liberals, click here.
So far, Carney’s ‘toughness’ doesn’t seem to bother Trump
Last Thursday, Justin Trudeau’s last full day as prime minister, Donald Trump was emphatic in his desire to force Canada to join the United States during a press event in the Oval Office.
“Canada only works as a state,” he said, referring to the border as “an artificial line” and suggesting that Canschluss — a play on the term Anschluss, denoting Nazi Germany’s annexation of Austria in 1938 — is just a matter of time.
“There will be a little disruption, but it won’t be very long. But they need us. We really don’t need them. And we have to do this. I’m sorry.”
On Friday, former central banker Mark Carney was sworn in as Canada’s prime minister. In his first news conference, he called Trump’s comments “crazy. That’s all you can say.”
For a few days, Trump didn't repeat his threats, which opened up the possibility that he merely enjoyed dunking onTrudeau, whom he seems to despise, and would now move on. But it was likely that the US president was just busy — carrying out airstrikes in Yemen, deporting migrants to El Salvador, and trying to negotiate a ceasefire in Ukraine.
On Tuesday night, in an interview with Fox News, Trump angrily denounced Canada again, said he doesn’t care if his comments cost the Conservatives the election, and said Canada is “meant to be our 51st state.”
Trump is so toxic in Canada that Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievreseized on the comment as evidence that he, not Carney, is the champion the country needs.
Trump’s continued trash talk may show that his fixation is too deep to be deterred by the disinclination of Canadians to be annexed, which is setting him up for a showdown with the new prime minister.
People who know Carney think he may be better equipped to respond than Trudeau was.
Anthony Scaramucci, who became friends with Carney at Goldman Sachs many years ago, and who briefly worked for Trump in 2017, said on MSNBC that the president likely doesn’t want a fight with Carney, who he described as a “very, very tough guy.”
“I don’t think the administration really wants to fight with him,” said the Mooch. “He has energy on his side. He has electricity on his side.”
Trudeau looked weak
Trump and Carney have not yet had the traditional congratulatory call but, on the other hand, he is not yet calling Carney governor — which would be ironic, since he previously served as governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England.
It may be that Trump had a special desire to bully Trudeau, who was an unpopular lame duck when Trump was elected.
“Trump, as everybody knows, has an unerring instinct for the weakness of a counterparty, and he seeks to exploit that and control them for it,” says Graeme Thompson, a senior analyst with Eurasia Group.
The White House will have noticed that Canadians now have their backs up, says Jamie Tronnes, executive director of the Center for North American Prosperity and Security, and are unified around the idea of “sticking it” to the Americans.
“It really has changed the way in which they will be able to negotiate with the United States in an upcoming [trade] renegotiation. It doesn’t matter who the leader of the Canadian government is. That person is going to have to represent the national mood, and the national mood is not conducive to cutting a deal with the United States.”
And Trump appreciates muscle. After blustery Ontario Premier Doug Ford threatened to impose a 25% tariff on electricity exports to the United States, Trump threatened him into backing down, and then praised him as “a very strong man.”
Thompson notes that Trump has been respectful to Ford, who just won a majority, and Mexico’s president, Claudia Sheinbaum, who enjoys overwhelming support among Mexicans.
“I think that whoever ends up on the other side of the Canadian election, if they get a majority, that would be the most powerful thing in Carney or Poilievre’s pocket, in terms of relations with the Trump administration.”
An election on tackling Trump
For Carney, everything depends on managing Trump, since he has the power to badly damage Canada’s economy with tariffs.
Carney is trying to show strength. After being sworn in, he flew to Europe to meet with French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer to “strengthen ties with reliable allies,” which seemingly no longer includes the United States.
After flying back to the Canadian Arctic, Carney announced that Canada would buy a CA$6 billion radar system from Australia, getting it before the Americans. He also has asked for a review of the planned CA$19 billion purchase of 88 F-35 fighter jets from the United States, “given the geopolitical environment,” although the Americans might be able to use technology-sharing agreements to block Canada from purchasing alternatives.
Last week, Portugal announced it would buy European jets rather than F-35s because of America’s new hostility toward traditional allies, so the Canadian announcement would seem like bad news for politically powerful American supplier Lockheed Martin. This would normally be the kind of thing to get a president’s attention.
Carney, who has met Trump at international conferences and been involved in business deals with Jared Kushner and Elon Musk, will highlight his economic and crisis-management experience in the upcoming Canadian election, which could start as soon as Sunday.
Polls show, in a dramatic reversal, that Canadians now favor Carney over his Conservative rival, who is promising to stand up to Trump but whom Carney has linked to the MAGA movement.
Carney is campaigning on taking a hard line. In London, he said he didn’t intend to negotiate with Trump until he stopped threatening to make Canada the 51st state.
“We’ve called out those comments,” he said. “They’re disrespectful, they’re not helpful, and they need to stop. They will have to stop before we sit down and have a conversation about our broader partnership with the United States.”
But Trump shows no sign of stopping, and if he doesn’t, it’s unclear what Carney — or Poilievre — can do. Both leaders talk about diversifying trade, but it would take years to build the transport infrastructure to make a major shift workable. In the short term, a showdown with a hostile neighbor looks inevitable.