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Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. makes an announcement on the future of his campaign in Phoenix, Arizona, U.S. August 23, 2024.
RFK Jr. bows out, backs Trump, and bucks Democrats
Robert F Kennedy endorsed Donald Trump after suspending his independent campaign for president on Friday. In his speech, he thanked his supporters and accused the Democratic Party of “abandoning democracy” by nominating Kamala Harris without a primary.
His endorsement of Trump was not entirely enthusiastic, with Kennedy saying that the decision to back him was “a difficult sacrifice for my wife and children.” He implied that if Trump wins the White House, he would be given a role that would allow him to “staff agencies with honest scientists,” and “reform the entire food system.”
Kennedy’s campaign was a potluck of populist economics, anti-war leanings, and government skepticism that once had the potential to be a scion for both parties. He peaked in momentum in the fall, when he began to get on state ballots, often polling in the double digits. But as an independent, he had to get on each state ballot independently, an incredibly time consuming and costly effort – his running mate Nicole Shanahan, a wealthy Silicon Valley investor, has sunk more than $14 million into the campaign alone.
By August, his campaign was out of money and down to 5% in the polls, as much of his support came from voters who wanted an alternative to Trump or Joe Biden. Many of those voters have gone back to the Democratic Party now that Harris is in the race.
What now? Trump is expected to gain one or two points from Kennedy dropping out, as well as pick up a few of his donors. 2% of Democrats, 3% of Republicans, and 12% of independents supported Kennedy. We will be watching to see whether the independents heed Kennedy’s calls to vote for Trump, though it is likely that many may choose to not vote altogether.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr at Supreme Court in Mineola, New York to appeal a ballot suit.
What can RFK Jr. do for Donald Trump?
Third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is expected to exit the presidential race and endorse Donald Trump at his rally in Arizona on Friday. Trump is also holding a rally in Phoenix today, and the choice of location is no accident: Arizona is famous for its independent voters, whom both Democrats and Republicans are desperate to win over ahead of an inevitably close election.
Potential quid pro quo. On Tuesday, Kennedy’s running mate, Nicole Shanahan, told an interviewer the campaign was weighing whether to “join forces” with Trump and suggested that Kennedy would do an “incredible job” as secretary of health and human services, a controversial choice given that Kennedy is a vocal supporter of the anti-vaccine movement. Trump later confirmed that he would probably “consider” appointing Kennedy to some role.
Election impact. Five percentof the voting population prefers Kennedy, and an August NPR/PBS/Marist poll found that that breaks down into 2% of Democrats, 3% of Republicans, and 12% of independents. Since voters who identify as Republican or Democrat would likely vote for their party’s preferred candidate in a two-way race, most of the votes up for grabs are independents.
“Trump will benefit marginally from Kennedy’s exit and endorsement,” says Eurasia Group’s US analyst Noah Daponte-Smith,as he will “likely gain one or two percentage points, but unlikely anything more. Many of Kennedy’s supporters either won’t vote or will vote for another third-party option.”
Independent US presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. speaks at Bitcoin 2024 in Nashville, Tenn., on July 26, 2024.
RFK Jr. to endorse Trump
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. the strongest third-party US presidential candidate in a generation, has reportedly decided to leave the race and cash in his chips – with Donald Trump.
The eccentric, conspiracy-minded, anti-corporate crusader – best known for his vaccine skepticism – polls around 5% nationally and in key swing states. He has drawn outsized support from Black, Latino, and young voters.
RFK Jr. is expected to formally announce his withdrawal in a big speech in Arizona on Friday and is in talks with the Trump campaign about a formal endorsement. Trump, who is also campaigning from the Grand Canyon state that day, has said he’d be open to giving RFK a position in his administration if he wins.
How will this affect the race? RFK’s endorsement would certainly counterprogram the climax of the DNC and could deliver Trump a few extra points worth of voters that he’ll need in a tight election. Polling has consistently shown RFK drawing more Trump-leaning voters than Biden-leaning ones.
Still, bringing aboard RFK – a conspiracy-theory aficionado whose brain has been eaten by a worm and who recently admitted to a bizarre bear-killing cover-up – could also play into one of the Democrats’ main strategies, says Clayton Allen, the US director at Eurasia Group.
“If he joins the Trump campaign,” says Allen, “that may exacerbate the Democrats’ “weird” attacks.”
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. speaks to attendees during a press conference in New York, U.S., May 1, 2024.
RFK Jr hits a roadblock
Robert Kennedy Jr. is falling further behind in the race for the White House. The independent presidential candidate won’t qualify to appear in next Thursday’s televised presidential debate because, contrary to claims made by his campaign, he hasn’t gathered enough signatures to appear on enough state ballots to reach 270 electoral votes. He has also failed to reach 15% support in enough approved national polls. (He got three but needed four.) In response, Kennedy filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission accusing CNN, which will host the debate, of violating campaign finance law.
Another sign of trouble: Kennedy’s campaign raised just $2.6 million in May, according to filings with the Federal Election Commission. In April, it reportedly brought in $10.7 million, but $8 million of that was donated by Kennedy’s vice-presidential running mate, wealthy philanthropist Nicole Shanahan. No word on whether Shanahan will continue giving to the campaign.
It remains unclear whether Kennedy’s candidacy poses a bigger threat to President Joe Biden or former President Donald Trump, but both men would prefer to avoid the uncertainty RFK’s campaign might create.
Wild geese fly over the Elbe meadows in the light of the setting sun on November 4, 2020, in Brandenburg, Wittenberge.
Hard Numbers: Migratory species face extinction, Dutch court halts shipments of F-35 parts to Israel, RFK’s Super Bowl ad debacle, Suspected separatist attack in Cameroon
22: A new report from the UN warns that over a fifth (22%) of the world’s migratory species are at risk of extinction due to climate change and human encroachment. The report, which focuses on 1,189 kinds of animals, emphasized that 44% have already declined in number.
7: An appeals court in the Netherlands on Monday ruled the government must halt shipments of F-35 jet components to Israel within seven days, citing concerns that they could be used to commit war crimes in Gaza. The Netherlands is home to a large warehouse of F-35 parts that are exported to countries that operate the US-made jet. The Dutch government said it will comply with the ruling but that it has appealed because these exports are a matter of foreign policy, which is up to the state.
7,000,000: Robert Kennedy Jr., who is running for US president in 2024 as an independent, on Monday apologized to family members for a campaign ad that ran during the Super Bowl. The commercial drew from a 1960 campaign ad for Kennedy’s assassinated uncle, President John F. Kennedy, and cost an estimated $7 million. Kennedy tweeted the ad was created by a Super Pac without his involvement or approval — but the 30-second commercial was simultaneously pinned to his profile on Monday.
1: At least one person was killed and dozens more injured by an explosion at a children’s Youth Day celebration in Cameroon on Sunday, as the Central African country continues to contend with separatist violence in its English-speaking regions. The unrest is linked to longtime Anglophone grievances alleging discrimination by the Francophone majority.