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GZERO Media

If not Biden …

President Joe Biden has given every indication, short of a formal announcement, that he will run for reelection in 2024. But public focus on his age – he’ll be 82 on Election Day – and his higher-but-still-sagging approval ratings continue to feed media speculation, and the hopes of some Democrats, that he’ll follow the lead of outgoing House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and make room for a younger generation of leaders within his party.

Biden knows that past presidents eligible for reelection who decided not to run have seen their party lose the White House. (See Harry Truman in 1952 and Lyndon Johnson in 1968.) No one within the party wants to publicly push him off stage. As both parties have learned the hard way, a primary challenge for a sitting president can doom the incumbent’s party to defeat. (See Jimmy Carter in 1980 and George HW Bush in 1992.)

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Dems & GOP Both Thankful for Midterm Surprises | US Politics In :60 | GZERO Media

US Dems and GOP can be thankful this Thanksgiving

Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC shares his perspective on US politics in a Thanksgiving edition.


What are Republicans and Democrats thankful for this holiday season?

Democrats are thankful for three Republicans named Mehmet Oz, Don Bolduc and Blake Masters, who lost three winnable Senate seats in Arizona, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania, allowing Democrats to keep their majority. Democrats keep the majority; it means they can continue to confirm judges and confirm any executive branch nominees that President Biden puts forward should there be any openings. These were clearly winnable seats for the Republicans in this cycle that should have strongly favored them, but we saw Trump aligned nominees like these three give up winnable seats.

Republicans are thankful that there are alternatives emerging to President Donald Trump in the Republican primary in 2024. President Trump has declared his intention to run. However, three Republican governors, Brian Kemp, Ron DeSantis, and Greg Abbott had very strong showings in their reelection cycles this year and that's going to embolden challengers to Trump in the primary, and this could be a very competitive primary, giving them some alternatives to Trump, given that there's a growing number of Republicans who think he can't win a general election. Now, of course, the challenge will be, can these guys win if Trump decides that he's not going to support them should he lose the primary? But that's a question for another day.

Now, Republicans and Democrats are thankful that they're not going to be spending their holiday seasons relitigating false claims of election fraud the way they did in 2020. President Trump in 2020 claimed that the election was rigged and stolen from him. He refused to concede, and that really dominated the news cycle from Thanksgiving all the way through the January six riots, which were a terrible day for most lawmakers that were present. That's not going to happen this cycle. No one's really questioning the results of these elections. There were some questions about some voting machines malfunctioning in Arizona, but for the most part, this is a pretty clean election, and everyone understands that the legitimate ballots that were cast led to a legitimate outcome, a good day for American democracy. It's something that we should all be thankful for.

US Democracy After US Midterms: Polarized Voters & Trump's GOP | GZERO World with Ian Bremmer

US democracy after US midterms: polarized voters & Trump's GOP

What happened in the US midterm elections is becoming clear: the red wave-turned-ripple was only enough for Republicans to narrowly win the House, while the Democrats kept the Senate. But 'why' it happened is a harder question to answer.

On GZERO World, NPR White House correspondent Tamara Keith speaks to Ian Bremmer about all things midterms.

Her take on what saved the Dems? Abortion rights and protecting democracy turned out voters.

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Will Trump’s 2024 Candidacy Sink Republicans? | US Politics In :60 | GZERO Media

Will Trump’s 2024 candidacy sink Republicans?

Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC shares his perspective on US politics:

Is the Republican Party still Trump's party to lead after the midterm elections?

The biggest news this week, other than Taylor Swift tickets going on presale, is the announcement by former President Donald Trump that he is going to run for president a third time. Trump's role with Republicans is a huge source of discord within the party right now. He remains one of, if not the most popular Republicans, but he is not delivering the electoral results the way he once did. Trump-aligned candidates had some of the worst nights in the midterm elections, in some cases trailing other Republicans from the same state by 20 points or more.

This is a huge dilemma for Republicans who can't win with him, but they also probably can't win without him, as there is a hard core of Trump-supporting voters within the GOP base who helped Trump candidates win their primaries in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Arizona. If Trump does win the primary, there are a lot of people in both parties who think he is so toxic, it will give the election to the Democrats in 2024. Of course, depending on the state of the economy. But if he does not win the primary, there are serious questions as to how conciliatory he's willing to be, and if he would help the eventual Republican candidate or just take his base and go home.

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Former U.S. President Donald Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis

Reuters

Bracing for 2024: Trump vs. DeSantis

As dust from US midterm elections begins to settle, the focus is shifting to tension brewing within the GOP. Former President Donald Trump looks poised to announce his 2024 presidential bid, and many expect Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis to throw his hat in the ring. Trump is publicly discouraging DeSantis from running – threatening him even. With the race for 2024 set to begin, we asked Eurasia Group’s lead US political analyst Jon Lieber for his insights on the DeSantis-Trump feud and the likely 2024 presidential tickets.

Do you believe both Trump and DeSantis will run for 2024? When will they throw their hats in the ring?

Yes. Trump has hinted he's going to go for it next week at a big rally, but I think the Georgia runoff complicates that. He has the opportunity to take credit for a win, but he also faces the downside risk of taking the blame for a loss. I think that it's a pretty risky move for him to continue to go ahead with this plan. He could end up delaying, but I'd be shocked if we got to Christmas Eve and he hadn't figured out some way to get all the attention on him by announcing.

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U.S. Representative Liz Cheney waves at an event in Jackson, Wyoming.

REUTERS/David Stubbs

Liz Cheney 2024

Congresswoman Liz Cheney has said that “there has never been a greater betrayal by a President of the United States of his office and his oath to the Constitution” than Donald Trump’s bid to overturn the results of the 2020 US presidential election. And now she has paid the full price for that conviction.

Cheney’s defeat in this week’s Republican primary election for Wyoming’s lone House seat made news for two big reasons. First, it closed the book on the “Donald Trump impeachment revenge tour.” (Of the 10 GOP congressmen who voted to impeach Trump, four were defeated for re-election by Trump-endorsed challengers, four announced their retirement, and just two have survived.) In other words, Trump’s grip on his party remains strong. Second, it opens the next chapter of Liz Cheney’s increasingly interesting political career.

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Trump's 2024 Outlook & Jan. 6 Committee Impact | Quick Take | GZERO Media

Trump's 2024 outlook: more vulnerable after Jan 6 hearings

Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi, everybody. Happy Monday. And a Quick Take for you to get your week started off. Wanted to talk a little bit about a topic I haven't discussed very much and that is the implications of the January 6th commission and where we are heading for US elections.

It's pretty clear to me that Trump is still the most popular in the Republican Party. And if you want to make a bet, you would certainly still say that he gets the nomination. I think it's virtually a hundred percent that he's going to announce his candidacy. Closest people around him certainly believe that in relatively short order. But he is more vulnerable than he was just a few months ago. And some of this is obvious. I mean, he's not president anymore and so he doesn't have the platform that he had when he was president. Of course, he's going to lose a significant amount of attention, impact as a consequence of that. He's been banned from Twitter. He's banned from Facebook. And his new Truth Social is not doing very much to speak of, at least to date. Doesn't seem to have any real management. And a couple times I've taken a look at it, doesn't seem to have a lot going on in terms of the space. He's not attracting the same crowds he used to when he gives speeches.

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Placeholder | US Politics :60 | GZERO Media

Are US politicians too old?

Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC, shares his analysis on US politics:

Are America's political leaders too old?

A new poll this week suggests the Democratic voters would be very open to alternatives to President Joe Biden in the 2024 election cycle. Many Democrats, including Biden himself, argue that he offers their best chance to defeat our Republican challengers in two years, particularly if that challenger is former President Donald Trump. But it's very clear through polling leaks and voter interviews, that there is a high degree of concern about one major issue, President Biden's age. Among the 64% of Democratic primary voters in the New York Times poll who said they would prefer a candidate other than Joe Biden, 33%, a plurality, said it was because of his age. Biden is already the oldest president in history, and if he wins another term, he would be 82 on Inauguration Day, and 86 when he finishes his second term.

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