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Is Congress headed for a “double flip?”

The U.S. Capitol dome is seen in the morning sun in Washington, U.S., March 8, 2023. ​

The U.S. Capitol dome is seen in the morning sun in Washington, U.S., March 8, 2023.

REUTERS/Mary F. Calvert
David Moscrop
By David MoscropOctober 10, 2024
David Moscrop
David Moscrop is an author, columnist, substacker, and podcaster. He's written for major publications in Canada, the United States, and the United Kingdom. He holds a Ph.D. in political science from the University of British Columbia. He lives in Ottawa.
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US presidential elections may overshadow Congressional contests, but which party controls the House and Senate is critical in determining what a president can and can’t do during their time in office. The presidential race is close, with just 25 days to go before Election Day, and the White House is either party’s to win.

Congress, however, may be headed for a “double flip,” with Republicans on pace to retake the Senate from Democrats but lose the House, which they currently control. If that should happen, it would be the first time in US history.

Experts say a double flip could produce extraordinary gridlock, which, in the current political environment, is saying something.

Eight close Senate races out of the 34 seats up for election this time around are set to determine who controls that chamber. In the House, the Cook Report projects 26 toss-up seats and that 16 lean seats are up for grabs, meaning 42 or fewer elections out of 435 could have an outsized effect on the next Congress – and the next White House.

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