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Sen. John Thune (R-SD) speaks to the media after being chosen to serve as Senate majority leader at the United States Capitol.
Republicans win the House and elect new Senate majority leader
While the final margin is still being determined, the GOP cemented control after winning critical battleground seats in Arizona and California. Republicans, however, will likely have just a slight edge over the Democrats in the House, especially after GOP Rep. Matt Gaetz stepped down yesterday after being nominated to become Trump’s attorney general.
In the Senate on Wednesday, meanwhile, Republicans elected John Thune of South Dakota to serve as majority leader in the next Congress. He succeeds Mitch McConnell, who held the term for 18 years.
The appointment marks a continuation of a McConnell-like establishment Republican leading the Senate, and a pivot away from his MAGA-loyal opponent Rick Scott. Scott, who pitched himself as Trump’s closest ally in the race, came in third behind another traditional Republican, John Cornyn. Thune led after the first ballot, raking in 25 votes while Cornyn won 15 and Scott garnered 13 votes.
What’s first on Thune’s agenda? He will be under immense pressure to approve Trump’s growing list of cabinet picks. “The Senate will move as quickly as possible to confirm Trump’s appointees” says Eurasia Group’s US director Clayton Allen. “Thune recognizes that this will be a key point of (potential) contention with the White House and will work to avoid being pushed into a debate over recess appointments.”
Thune endorsed Trump’s picks to curry favor ahead of the majority leader race, but he “will bristle at actually giving up Senate authority or putting his moderate members in the difficult position of opposing an effort to force recess appointments.”
Beyond approving Trump’s cabinet picks, Republicans are expected to use their united government to expedite their legislative agenda, including tax cuts, loosening of regulations on domestic oil and gas production, and stringent border security measures.
To see all of Trump’s cabinet picks, read our run down here.
Republicans reclaim Senate control, with a unified government in reach
As projected, Republicans have won back control of the Senate, largely thanks to Democrats vacating seats in the red states of Ohio, Montana, and West Virginia. The victory gives them the power over nominations of judges and heads of the federal bureaucracy, as well as the ability to control legislation – positioning them to be a boon to Donald Trump’s policy goals.
Their victory comes as the GOP’s longtime leader in the Senate, Mitch McConnell, 82, steps down. Republicans are expected to hold elections for new leadership next week.
If current trends hold, Republicans look set to flip Senate seats in West Virginia, Ohio, Montana, and Pennsylvania, with Nevada still too close to call, giving them a firm 53- to 54-seat majority in Congress. Democrats never had much hope of holding on to West Virginia or Montana, meaning they knew they would likely lose the chamber. But depending on the final counts in the swing states of Nevada and Pennsylvania, President-elect Donald Trump’s party could have a comfortable margin.
With four Senate races still to call, the size of the GOP’s majority will matter greatly, especially since Republicans like Sens. Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska regularly break party lines.
Interestingly, as of the time of writing, Democratic Senate candidates are leading in Arizona, Nevada (slightly), and Wisconsin, and won in Michigan, all states that Trump won on the presidential level. If they all squeak out wins, and independent Sen. Angus King holds on to his seat in Maine, Democrats will have 47 seats — enough to filibuster comfortably and stymie some GOP legislation.
That becomes especially important if the GOP also wins the House, where they currently have the lead with 206 seats against the Democrats’ 191, with 38 races yet to be called.
US Capitol building at in the morning sun. Washington DC, USA The US Capitol building in the early morning at sunrise.
Election Countdown: The 6 congressional races to watch
While eyes around the globe will be on the US presidency this Election Day, there are consequential races further down the ballot that will determine how much power Kamala Harris or Donald Trump will wield. A handful of Senate and House races will decide which party has the power to advance or stymie the next president’s agenda.
Going into election night, 538 forecasters give Republicans a 92% chance of winning the Senate, but experts say the House could be anyone’s game. The Senate is likely to be called on election night, but because of slow counting in California, the results in the House are unlikely to be called before the end of the week at the earliest.
Here are the key races to watch.
Senate
Democrats currently hold a narrow 51-49 majority but are facing an almost certain loss in West Virginia. That means that Republicans only need to capture one more race to win the majority. This is a pretty comfortable spot for the GOP to be in. Meanwhile, Democrats rely on dramatically outperforming in the polls or performing miracles and expanding their map by winning states like Texas or Florida.
Thirty-four seats are up for grabs, and 10 races are expected to determine the balance of power: Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, Montana, Nebraska, Maryland, and Texas.
Arizona offers a race of political extremes. Independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema is stepping down, and progressive Rep. Ruben Gallego and Trump-darling Kari Lake are vying to take her spot. Lake, who lost the governor’s race in 2022 and continues to insist the election was “stolen,” has been encroaching on Gallego’s lead in the polls in recent days. Gallego’s slight edge is being attributed to his popularity among Latino voters, who make up 25% of the electorate.
Michigan, meanwhile, is a competition between centrists. Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow is retiring, and mainstream Republican Mike Rogers – a former Trump critic who has since embraced him – is facing outgoing Rep. Elissa Slotkin, who is using her national security background to win over centrists in and around Detroit.
The race has been tied in the final weeks of the election, and some of the biggest issues are reproductive rights and the candidates’ support for electric vehicles – a hot topic in a state that is home to the Big Three auto manufacturers.
In Ohio, Sen. Sherrod Brown, the Democratic incumbent, is fighting to keep his seat in the solidly red state against Trump-backed Bernie Moreno. Brown has lost what was once a commanding lead in recent weeks and is now polling behind Moreno by one point. The race has drawn $500 million in ad spending, more than any Senate race in history.
Control of the Senate could very well hinge on this state, which has voted twice for Trump and is likely to do so for a third time this year. Brown has held on to power in the past by focusing on local issues and evading questions about national political figures but has suffered from attack ads framing him as being far-left on transgender issues. But Democrats need this state if they have any chance of keeping their majority.
House of Representatives
Control of the House, like everything in this election, is expected to be incredibly close. All 435 seats are on the line, and, likely, whichever party wins control will do so by just a few seats. The Republicans are on the defense and need to control their slim majority, while Democrats need to gain four seats to flip the chamber. Democrat’s lead has declined as the election approached, with their margin slipping to just 0.5 points over the Republicans, down from 2.6 in early September.
New York’s 19th district is one of the most expensive House races in the 2024 election, with Democrats seeing flipping the seat as key to their efforts to regain control of the House. Republican incumbent Marc Molinaro faces a rematch against Democrat Josh Riley in this swing district that stretches across all or parts of the 11 upstate counties. It is expected to be a bellwether for how the parties are performing in the suburbs of New York and New Jersey, where Democrats saw disappointing turnout in the 2022 midterms, which led to them losing the seat.
Molinaro, once known as one of the most bipartisan members of Congress, has veered to the right this cycle, with his campaign drawing on fears about immigration and crime, while Riley has focused on abortion and reproductive rights.
Virginia’s 7th district is worth watching because it is expected to be an early bellwether of how the parties are fairing in a mixed district that spans from the DC suburbs to the rural Piedmont region. Republican Derrick Anderson is currently down four points against Democrat Yevgeny “Eugene” Vindman, who led the whistleblower account of the quid-quo-pro phone call between Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky that became the basis of the first impeachment case against Trump.
In Nebraska’s 2nd district, incumbent Republican Don Bacon is currently beating Democrat Tony Vargas by just two points. That's the same margin the GOP won by in 2022, and the Dems have had their eyes on winning it back ever since.
The district is one of 16 Republican-held seats in places that voted for Joe Biden in 2020. It is also known as the “blue dot” because it often sends one of Nebraska’s electoral votes to the Democrats even as the rest of the states’ votes go to Republicans.
Check out more of our recent election coverage:
- Everything you need to know about the 7 swing states
- The 15 counties to watch on election night
- The Disinformation Election: How conspiracy theories are impacting the vote
- How the 2024 presidential election could define the future of the Supreme Court
- Each presidential candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win the election. As the results come in, keep track of them with our handy map! Download it here
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North Carolina Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson, whom Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump has endorsed in the race to be the state's next governor, speaks before his arrival for a rally in Greensboro, North Carolina, U.S., March 2, 2024.
The crucial down-ballot races to watch in the US election
When Americans head to the polls on Nov. 5, they’ll vote for more than just the next president. They’ll also decide key House, Senate, and gubernatorial races determining which party can enable or obstruct the future president’s policy agenda. Here are the races to watch.
In the Senate, Democrats are on the defensive, with Republicans only needing two new seats – or one seat plus the White House – to win control. Thirty-four seats are up for election, but the majority will likely be decided by just nine races: Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, Montana, Nebraska, and Texas.
In Ohio, Sen. Sherrod Brown, the Democratic incumbent, is fighting to keep his seat in the solidly red state against Trump-backed Bernie Moreno, who is currently up by 8 points in the polls. Republicans are also close to flipping Montana – where the Democratic incumbent is down by 16 points – and are ahead in Nebraska by 19 points. In Texas, incumbent Ted Cruz is ahead by just 5 points against Rep. Colin Allred.
Democrats are ahead in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Arizona, but with razor-thin margins. At the most, they lead Nevada by 2 points and the rest of the states by 1 point or less.
Control of the House will likely be decided by 27 air-tight races. Here, Republicans are on the defensive but could maintain control of the chamber by winning 12 of the 27 toss-up races. Key states to watch are California, where four Republicans will defend their seats in districts that voted for Joe Biden in 2020, and New York and New Jersey, where the two parties are duking it out for control of the suburbs.
There are 11 seats for governor up for grabs. In North Carolina, Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein is trying to maintain Democratic control of the Tar Heel State against Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, who would be the state’s first Black governor if elected. New Hampshire and Washington are also holding competitive races.
While all eyes are focused on whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris will win control of the White House, we’ll also be watching these down-ballot races to see which party wins control of the legislature for the next two years.
The U.S. Capitol dome is seen in the morning sun in Washington, U.S., March 8, 2023.
Is Congress headed for a “double flip?”
US presidential elections may overshadow Congressional contests, but which party controls the House and Senate is critical in determining what a president can and can’t do during their time in office. The presidential race is close, with just 25 days to go before Election Day, and the White House is either party’s to win.
Congress, however, may be headed for a “double flip,” with Republicans on pace to retake the Senate from Democrats but lose the House, which they currently control. If that should happen, it would be the first time in US history.
Experts say a double flip could produce extraordinary gridlock, which, in the current political environment, is saying something.
Eight close Senate races out of the 34 seats up for election this time around are set to determine who controls that chamber. In the House, the Cook Report projects 26 toss-up seats and that 16 lean seats are up for grabs, meaning 42 or fewer elections out of 435 could have an outsized effect on the next Congress – and the next White House.
U.S. Sen. Ben Cardin addresses a press conference at U.S. Capitol on the future of the Chesapeake Bay
Ben Cardin’s deepfake debacle
US Sen. Ben Cardin, a Democrat from Maryland, recently joined a videoconference with a top Ukrainian official. The only problem? It was a deepfake.
Cardin believed he was speaking with former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, who wanted to chat over Zoom. But according to the New York Times, Cardin grew suspicious when the person posing as Kuleba began asking questions about politics, the upcoming election, and sensitive foreign policy questions. He asked Cardin whether he supported firing long-range missiles into Russia, for instance. Cardin ended the call, reported it to the State Department, and officials at State told him it was a deepfake. It’s not yet clear who was behind the artificial intelligence mask, which looked and sounded like Kuleba.
Senate security officials warned lawmakers and their aides after the incident. “While we have seen an increase of social engineering threats in the last several months and years, this attempt stands out due to its technical sophistication and believability,” they wrote, cautioning that similar incidents could arise in the future, especially ahead of the November elections.Pro-Palestine protesters hold placards expressing their opinion as they participate in a sit-in demonstration at New York University.
Campuses in crisis vs. Capitol Hill calm
Across the US, college students have been protesting, sleeping outside, and even getting arrested for trying to force their schools to divest from companies with ties to Israel. Meanwhile, it's been business as usual on Capitol Hill, where the Senate approved a $95.3 billion aid package for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan late Tuesday. The bill, which includes $17 billion in wartime assistance to Israel plus $9 billion for humanitarian aid in Gaza, is now heading for President Joe Biden's desk, where it is expected to be signed.
Student protesters have been targeting companies like Hewlett Packard, Lockheed Martin, and Airbnb, identified by the Boycott, Divestment, and Sanctions movement as benefitting the Israeli government, which they blame for the 34,183 Palestinians who have died from Israeli attacks on Gaza since Oct. 7. At Columbia College, the oldest undergraduate college at Columbia, 76.5% of students voted this week for the university’s $13.6 billion endowment to divest from Israel. Divestment is being pushed on campuses across the country, from Columbia and Yale to the University of Michigan and Berkeley, to name a few.
Universities appear unlikely to cave to protesters' demands and are instead bracing for chaotic ends to the semester. Columbia has moved to hybrid learning in acknowledgment that many students, particularly Jewish students, report feeling unsafe on campus. Meanwhile, colleges are weighing whether it is possible to hold graduation ceremonies without them becoming high-profile stages for protest.
Yet, despite intense student activism on campuses, there was no sign of public protest against the aid package on Capitol Hill this week.
Biden knows he is facing a possible backlash from Gen Z voters over Gaza and US funding for Israel. The president had hoped tougher talk on Israel would boost his reelection bid, but with less than seven months before Nov. 5, the protests and aid package could make it more difficult for him to get young voters to the polls.
File photo - Myanmar opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi at National League at the Democracy (NLD) headquarters, address journalists and supporters in Yangon, Myanmar on April 2, 2012.
Hard numbers: Myanmar’s Aung San Suu Kyi moved to house arrest, Hugh Grant settles Sun case, Russian death toll in Ukraine, Boeing whistleblowers testify
3,000: Myanmar’s detained former leader Aung San Suu Kyi, 78, has been moved from prison to house arrest in a bid to protect her health amid severely hot weather. The junta also granted amnesty for more than3,000 prisoners to mark this week’s traditional Thingyan New Year holiday.
66 million: Hugh Grant says he has settled a high court claim against the publisher of TheSun newspaper, News Group Newspapers, for“an enormous sum of money.” Grant accused the paper of phone hacking, unlawful information-gathering, landline tapping, bugging his phone, and burgling his flat and office. His case was meant to go to trial alongside Prince Harry and other high-profile individuals next year. NGN, which has rejected any wrongdoing, said of the settlement with Grant that it was "in both parties' financial interests not to progress to a costly trial.” Last year, The Sun paid £66 million to victims of its illegal information-gathering.
50,000: Over50,000 Russian soldiers have died in the Ukraine conflict, with the death toll in the second year of fighting nearly 25% higher than the first, according to the BBC. BBC Russian, Mediazona, and volunteers focused on open-source information and new graves to conduct the count, and the total is eight times higher than Russia's official figures.
98.7: Multiple whistleblowers testified before a US Senate panel on Wednesday, alleging widespread manufacturing and safety issues within Boeing, as Congress and regulators try to hold Boeing accountable following a mid-air blowout on a 737 MAX 9 jet in January that reignited safety concerns. The whistleblowers alleged that the company failed 98.7% of the time to fill tiny gaps between components in the aircraft's fuselages, which could eventually cause fatigue failure. Boeing said that while it has taken “important steps to foster a safety culture that empowers and encourages all employees to raise their voice,” it knows there is “more work to do.”