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Is the US Intelligence community at a breaking point?
With Congress slowing down during the summer recess and President Trump fresh off some major victories—from a joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure to pushing through a massive tax and spending bill—Ian Bremmer heads to Capitol Hill to hear how Democrats are responding on the latest episode of GZERO World. Senator Mark Warner, who chairs the Senate Intelligence Committee, is sounding the alarm about a deeper crisis: an intelligence system being weaponized for politics. “Analysts are being told to change their conclusions—or lose their jobs,” he says. “We’re in uncharted, dangerous territory.”
Finally, Warner spotlights a crisis few in Washington are talking about: Sudan. “More people die there every day than in Gaza and Ukraine combined,” he says. If Trump leverages his ties to the Saudis and UAE to stop funding the war, Warner believes it could be a rare and meaningful win.
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
Spy games and loyalty tests with Senator Mark Warner
It’s been a banner stretch for President Trump: a major strike on Iran’s nuclear sites, a sprawling tax-and-spending bill pushed through Congress, and a growing foreign policy resume. But beneath the surface of all the flag-waving and victory laps, Democrats like Senator Mark Warner are warning that the real story is unfolding in the shadows—inside an increasingly politicized US intelligence community.
In this episode of the GZERO World podcast, Ian Bremmer sits down with the senior Senator from Virginia at his Capitol Hill office for a wide-ranging conversation about what’s breaking inside America’s national security institutions—and what that means for foreign policy decisions from Tehran to Gaza. Warner doesn’t hold back: “We’re in uncharted, dangerous territory. [Intelligence] Analysts are being told to change their conclusions—or lose their jobs.”
The two also dive into the fallout from the US-Israeli strikes on Iran, the fragile push for a Gaza ceasefire, and why Warner sees a largely ignored civil war in Sudan as one of the world’s worst ongoing humanitarian crises—and a rare opportunity for the US to lead.
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President Trump has launched a revolution. Will it succeed?
President Donald Trump calls himself a revolutionary—and I actually agree with him. His second term has ushered in sweeping attempts to expand executive power and defang oversight institutions. Congress has rolled over. The DOJ? Under pressure. The only remaining institutional check appears to be the courts—especially the lower ones. So far, federal judges across the country, including some Trump appointees, have pushed back on illegal overreach. As has the Supreme Court on some high profile immigration and trade cases. But what happens when Trump gets tired of losing in court?
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
A man, draped in a version of the Israeli flag, stations himself outside the Capital Jewish Museum, after two Israeli embassy staff were shot dead there, in Washington, D.C., USA, on May 21, 2025.
HARD NUMBERS: Two Israelis murdered in Washington, Arms race for AI talent, & more
2: An Israeli couple who work at their country’s embassy in Washington, D.C., were shot and killed last night outside the Capital Jewish Museum by a gunman who reportedly chanted “free, free Palestine,” after he shot and killed them. Yaron Lischinsky and Sarah Lynn Milgrim were identified as the two people murdered. A 31-year-old suspect is in custody.
$20 million: Google DeepMind is offering artificial intelligence researchers $20 million of compensation per year in a bid to attract the top talent, amid an industry-wide battle for top talent. OpenAI and SSI are also offering eight-figure salary packages, and company leaders are personally courting top talent. If they need a hand, Nick Saban is available.
8: Mahmoud Abbas, the longtime chairman of the Palestine Liberation Organization, visited Lebanon on Wednesday for the first time in 8 years. He met with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, as the two leaders called for the disarming of armed groups that operate in Palestinian refugee camps.
75: US Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-VA), who was serving his ninth term in Congress, died Wednesday morning at the age of 75. The former congressional staffer oversaw his district’s transformation from a sleepy suburban area on the outskirts of D.C. into a booming tech hub. His passing means there are now three vacancies in Democratic-leaning House seats, and gives US Speaker Mike Johnson a little breathing room as he prepares to pass the “Big Beautiful Bill.”
$245 million: Former Democratic Republic of Congo Prime Minister Augustin Matata Ponyo was found guilty of embezzling $245 million inpublic funds, and sentenced to a decade of hard labor. Matata, who was prime minister from 2012 to 2016, had received praise from the International Monetary Fund for stabilizing the Congolese economy.
4,268: If you don’t have anything rice to say, don’t say it. Japanese Farm Minister Taku Eto resigned Wednesday after he declared over the weekend that he never has to buy rice because his supporters give him the staple grain free of charge. The comments didn’t land well with the public, in large part because rice prices have ballooned to 4,268 yen ($29.63) for a five-kilogram bag, a record.
President Donald Trump holds a "Foreign Trade Barriers" document as he delivers remarks on tariffs in the Rose Garden at the White House on April 2, 2025.
Trump’s tariffs spark market chaos, risk political backlash
Donald Trump’s much-anticipated “liberation day” tariff announcement on Wednesday is the biggest disruption to global trade in decades, so the political, diplomatic, and economic impacts will take time to become clear.
In a dramatic unveiling in the Rose Garden, Trump set in place tariffs of at least 10% on most US trading partners, which set off a global sell-off of stocks, a rebellion from some Republicans, and angry rebukes from shocked trading partners.
It is hard to game out what will happen next because it has been so long since a shock on this scale hit the global tradition system. “We’re literally going back 100 years for historical precedents, and I’m not sure that there is an economic precedent of a policy-driven change of this magnitude in this direction,” says Eurasia Group senior analyst Graeme Thompson.
Trump’s new policy will make it more expensive for Americans to buy products from most countries, which investors fear will lead to a dramatic global economic slowdown and drive up inflation. Trump’s stated goal for the new policy is to stop foreign countries from taking advantage of the United States and boost American manufacturing, but observers and analysts are almost universally united in skepticism around the “golden age” that he promises they will bring.
Because the results are hitting investors and will soon hit the pocketbooks of consumers, there will be growing pressure on Republicans in the House and Senate to force Trump to change course. Until now, Trump’s popularity with his electoral base has kept them in line, but this new policy may put that under strain. Four senators voted with the Democrats in a (likely only symbolic) vote against Canadian tariffs late Wednesday, an acknowledgment that Republicans could face political blowback in the midterms for these widespread duties.
The political reaction is taking place before other countries have even put in place retaliatory measures, which can be expected to damage American exports. The greatest downside is unpredictability.
“I think what is hitting investors globally at this point is that uncertainty,” says Thompson.
“If you just came in and said, very clearly, ‘This is what’s happening, end of story,’ I think a lot of companies wouldn’t be happy, but they could work with it, but that’s not the story that we’ve got right now.”
It’s hard to see anything positive in the reactions from markets in the short term, and the political and diplomatic reaction in the United States and abroad is likely to test the strength of Trump’s support.
A coalition of labor unions, political action, and community groups march against DOGE and proposed cuts to Medicaid, housing, food assistance, and other vital programs in New York, New York, on March 15, 2025. Some expressed their outrage with Senator Chuck Schumer for voting to advance the Republican funding bill.
Democrats vs. Democrats
Senate Democrats unleashed a storm last week when Schumer and nine other Democrats voted in favor of a Republican-authored funding bill. To vote no, Schumer argued, would be to risk a shutdown of the federal government, a move President Donald Trump and advisor Elon Musk might use to further slash the federal bureaucracy.
House Democrats and others were furious with Schumer’s decision. They have argued that the Republican need for Democratic votes to pass the bill gave Democrats rare legislative leverage over Republicans and a chance to strike a blow at Trump. By refusing to stand up to the president and his party when given the chance, they’re leaving the public without a positive reason to vote for Democrats.
More immediately, Congress will replay this drama in September when the next funding bill comes to the floor. Now that Schumer has set a precedent by caving to pressure, critics within his party ask, what’s to prevent Republicans from offering a bill that Democrats find even more toxic than the one that passed last week, with confidence that that bill will pass too?
A new poll finds that Democratic-aligned adults say, by a margin of 52% to 48%, that the leadership of the Democratic Party is currently taking the party in the wrong direction. There isn’t yet a groundswell within the party that favors replacing Schumer as Senate minority leader, but that moment may be coming.Sen. John Fetterman, D-Pa., talks with reporters in Russell building after a senate vote on Wednesday, February 19, 2025.
Dems vs GOP: Who Blinks?
House Speaker Mike Johnson is expected to pass a budget bill with only Republican support on Wednesday, sending Senate Democrats an imminent predicament: Either approve a spending bill created solely by the GOP or trigger a shutdown standoff – a strategy they have consistently criticized in the past.
Republicans need at least eight Democratic votes, assuming no additional GOP lawmakers join Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, who has committed to voting against the bill.
Democrats in the House have vowed to oppose the bill unless it includes language mandating that the Trump administration can’t cut the funds they allocate, and favor their alternative bill extending funding at current levels for four weeks instead – giving lawmakers time to craft a bipartisan funding package. However, a few Dems in the Senate may be willing to side with Republicans. Democratic Sen. John Fetterman, for example, has already committed to backing the bill.
The bill would extend government funding at current levels for seven months while adding $6 billion for defense funding and cutting $13 billion from nondefense spending. While that means some nondefense programs will be cut, it’s not expected to touch Medicaid or Social Security, or to be used as a means for Congress to hop on the DOGE train and start drastically downsizing the government. Those larger budget battles aren’t likely until the fall, when Congress needs to set a budget for next year.
President Donald Trump addresses a joint session of Congress at the U.S. Capitol on March 04, 2025. Vice President JD Vance and Speaker of the House Mike Johnson applaud behind him.
Trump lays out a bold vision for second term
Six weeks into Donald Trump’s second presidency, he delivered his first major address. Speaking before a joint session of Congress late Tuesday, he highlighted some of the nearly 100 executive orders he has signed, touted cuts to the federal government, and outlined his bold vision for reshaping the US over the next four years.
Trump began by focusing on culture war issues, including the elimination of DEI programs and a ban on transgender athletes in competition. He tied these topics to the Department of Government Efficiency’s mission to reduce government waste, listing what he called “woke” programs that had been defunded. He also emphasized his administration’s success in strengthening US border security and immigration enforcement, pointing to a 25-year low in border crossings during his first month in office and the passage of multiple immigration bills through Congress.
Trump blamed the country’s economic struggles — such as high grocery prices and egg shortages — on Joe Biden’s administration. As for his approach, Trump touted populist economic policies, including eliminating taxes on tips, overtime pay, Social Security benefits, and car payments for US-made vehicles. He also urged Congress to extend his 2017 tax cuts and assured that DOGE initiatives would save taxpayers money.
Trump’s speech notably came amid market turmoil following his newly imposed tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China. On Monday, the S&P 500 dropped 1.2%, wiping out its gains since Election Day, while the Nasdaq declined 0.4%. Trump announced additional reciprocal tariffs set to take effect on April 2, acknowledging they could cause short-term economic pain and urging American farmers to “bear with me.” During his first term, Trump secured tariff relief from China for the agriculture industry ahead of the midterms.
On Ukraine, Trump spoke at length about brokering a peace deal, reading a letter from President Volodymyr Zelensky stating that Ukraine was ready to negotiate and commit to a minerals agreement. He criticized Europe for spending more on Russian gas than on Ukraine’s defense and emphasized the importance of engaging both sides in diplomacy. “If you want to end wars, you have to talk to both sides,” he said.
Trump also argued that the US needed Greenland for “international world security.” He extended an open invitation, saying Greenland would be welcomed into the US “if you choose,” before adding moments later, “I think we’re going to get it one way or the other.”
What about the Democrats? Partisan tensions flared from the start of the speech. Still, Democratic boos were quickly subdued when Rep. Al Green from Texas was removed from the chamber after repeatedly shouting, “You have no mandate to cut Medicaid!” at the president. Democratic protests then became more restrained. Many members silently expressed their opposition through their attire — women dressed in pink, while men wore blue and yellow ties in support of Ukraine. Later, a handful of members walked out, revealing black t-shirts emblazoned with the word “RESIST.”
Following Trump’s speech, Democrats made their appeal to the American people. Michigan Sen. Elissa Slotkin called for a return to bipartisanship and outlined key policy priorities, including lowering costs, strengthening national security – both at the border and abroad – and defending American democracy. She criticized Trump for prioritizing billionaires and for abandoning US allies in favor of autocrats.
Slotkin’s speech was concise, though likely delivered after many Americans had already turned off their televisions. Still, it marked the first time Democrats had formally outlined a party platform since losing the White House and both chambers of Congress in November.