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TikTok on the clock
In a rare bipartisan vote of 352-65, the US House of Representatives passed a bill on Wednesday that – if it survives the Senate — could force TikTok to divest from its Chinese parent company ByteDance or be banned on all US devices.
Many see TikTok as a threat to America’s national security since Chinese law requires private-sector companies to answer to the Chinese Communist Party. Lawmakers worry that Beijing could weaponize Americans’ user data (browsing history, location, contacts, etc.) and use the almighty algorithm to influence elections and further divide an already polarized country.
TikTok has found a surprising ally in 2024 hopeful Donald Trump. The former president pulled a 180 on supporting the ban, saying it will benefit American-owned Facebook — which he called a “true enemy of the people” (note, he doesn’t own that one). Trump’s change of heart came days after a meeting with GOP megadonor Jeff Yass, who owns a 15% stake in ByteDance.
What’s next: Although President Joe Biden signaled he would sign the bill, Senate Majority leader Chuck Schumer’s willingness to bring it to the Senate floor, and how everyone will vote, remains unclear.
What is clear: No one will come out of this fight unscathed. If TikTok gets banned, 170 million TikTok users (especially young people and Trump) will revolt. If everything stays the same, millions of Americans could remain vulnerable to foreign manipulation.Rowdy SOTU sets the tone for 2024
With both parties’ nominees locked in, Thursday’s State of the Union played more like a campaign-rally-cum-stand-up-comedy — complete with crowd work and hecklers.
President Joe Biden took advantage of the bully pulpit to highlight his administration’s successes and contrast them disfavorably with those of his predecessor on everything from economic performance to foreign policy. He did so without once using Donald Trump’s name.
Biden opened by urging Congress to pass weapons aid to Ukraine, saying Russian President Vladimir Putin will not stop there if Kyiv’s defenses falter. He also called out Trump for saying he would let Moscow “do whatever the hell they want” to NATO allies that don’t meet spending commitments. His message to Putin was simple: “We will not walk away. We will not bow down.”
On the more politically sensitive subject of Gaza, Biden defended Israel’s right to go after Hamas while decrying the humanitarian nightmare that is unfolding there. He announced the construction of a temporary pier in Gaza overseen by the US military that may be able to increase the amount of food entering the enclave amid rising starvation. He promised, however, that there would be no US boots on the ground.
On the domestic front, Biden played to women and middle-class workers, key elements of the electoral coalition he hopes will deliver him a second term in November. He promised to reinstate a constitutional right to abortion and crack down on domestic violence, telling Republicans they had “no clue” about the power of women.
He gave Shawn Fain, president of the United Auto Workers, a shout-out for leading a successful strike last year and pointed to his own union bona fides and record of reviving the US auto industry. Biden will be relying on union voters to secure swing states in the upper Midwest like Michigan and Wisconsin that pushed him over the line against Trump in 2020.
Biden was under pressure to demonstrate vigor. Barring a few gaffes, he gave a strong performance, says Clayton Allen, Eurasia Group’s director for the United States, but one good night may not be enough.
“A strong delivery won’t substantially change the fact that 73% of voters still see him as too old, and he has to perform nearly flawlessly over the next 8 and a half months to keep age concerns at bay,” he says.
As has become the pattern in recent years, some Republicans in the audience shouted at the president during the speech – and on occasion, the president shouted right back.
“Spirited back and forth exchanges with Republicans in the audience — what would have been headline-grabbing breaks of protocol a decade ago — tonight were just more confirmation that the US is headed into a bare-knuckle fight of a campaign,” says Allen.
State of the Elephant downstairs
Here are a few things to watch for.
First, does the 81-year-old Biden look all there? Any slips or gaffes will be internet catnip for those who think Biden is too old to be president – a view now shared by 73% of voters. (About 40% say the same about Donald Trump).
Second, what does Biden say about immigration, trade, or climate policy – issues that could directly affect Canada? Ottawa and Washington have squabbled in recent years over the Made in America provisions of Biden’s signature Inflation Reduction Act.
But most importantly, does Biden make a compelling case for another term? He’s polling poorly despite good data on inflation, crime, wages, and employment. For Biden to pull ahead of Trump, he’ll need to pierce the doom bubble and convince just enough people that he’s a safer option for America’s institutions, economy, and alliances than the Other Guy.
Tonight will be his big shot to do that – can he land it?
Looming US government shutdown adds to fears in Kyiv
It’s shutdown season in Washington again (and again, and again). Congressional lawmakers have until Friday to avert a shutdown that would close 20% of the government. If the deadlock lasts until March 8th, the rest of the government would turn out the lights too.
With little promise of a deal in sight, President Joe Biden plans to meet with congressional lawmakers on Tuesday in the hopes of hammering out an agreement.
What’s driving the dysfunction? GOP House Speaker Mike Johnson is struggling to steer the ship: He has a paper thin majority which in principle means he needs to find bipartisan compromises, but the far right wing of his party are digging in on an array of policy demands – on issues ranging from immigration and abortion to climate change and foreign policy – that Democrats can’t or won’t agree to.
The ongoing deadlock has raised questions as to how long Johnson will last as Speaker. His predecessor was ousted in October after making a deal with Democrats that prevented a shutdown.
Congressional squabbling has also continued to delay further vital aid to Ukraine, which the MAGA wing of the GOP generally opposes. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Sunday bluntly warned that Ukraine needs more funding within a month or its position on the battlefield will only get weaker.Graphic Truth: Diversity in US and Canada legislatures
Legislatures in both the US and Canada are increasingly more diverse.
The 118th Congress is the most racially and ethnically diverse in US history, with 133 lawmakers – about 25% – who identify as Black, Hispanic, Asian American, American Indian, Alaska Native, or multiracial.
In Canada, the House of Commons is also at its most diverse, and it elected its first Black speaker, Greg Fergus, in 2023.
Both chambers, however, still have a way to go to fully reflect the diversity of their respective populations. In the US, 75% of voting members in Congress are white, compared to their 59% share of the population. In Canada, where 20% of the population are immigrants, the number of immigrants elected to the House has slightly decreased since 2015, from 46 to 44 legislators.Foreign aid bill passed by Senate faces uphill battle in House
A $95 billion bill including aid for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan passed with bipartisan support in the Senate on Tuesday in a 70-29 vote.
This occurred despite strong objections from former President Donald Trump – the likely 2024 GOP presidential nominee and de facto head of the Republican Party.
Trump builds a wall against foreign aid. Trump argues that the US should only offer foreign aid in the form of a loan, and his stance on the legislation could help tank it in the GOP-controlled House.
Schumer the optimist. House Speaker Mike Johnson on Monday pooh-poohed the foreign aid bill because it doesn’t include provisions to boost border security – an issue that’s created a logjam in Congress for months.
But just last week, Republicans killed bipartisan legislation that lumped the issues together after Trump urged them to do so, warning it could help Democrats in the 2024 election.
Despite these obstacles, Majority Leader Chuck Schumer on Tuesday said he’s confident that if Johnson does “the right thing” and brings the bill to the floor, it would pass with bipartisan support. Minority Leader Mitch McConnell also said he hopes Johnson doesn’t block the bill from consideration.
Up to this point, every Ukraine aid vote has received support from at least 73% of the lower chamber.
Zelensky agrees with GOP on border crisis
The Ukrainian president and the GOP have the same view, in a way.
Watch more PUPPET REGIME!
- Zelensky and Boris Johnson hit the beach ›
- World High: Biden won’t let Zelensky rush ›
- Putin and Zelensky at the Forgotten Wars Bar ›
- Actors strike: Putin and Kim cross the picket line ›
- Vladimir Putin, film critic ›
- Border disorder: Why Capitol Hill lawmakers disagree on the US immigration crisis - GZERO Media ›
- Why Republicans hold Biden accountable for border problems - GZERO Media ›
The world of AI in 2024
2. Labor tensions: The acceleration of AI will continue to reshape industries, automating jobs and displacing workers. That will lead to widespread tension in various sectors of the economy. Union leaders could make AI the centerpiece of their strikes, and you might hear a lot of talk about “reskilling” workers on the lips of lawmakers heading into the 2024 election. This time it’s sure to work …
3. Copyright clarity: We don’t really know how AI models are trained, but we know they’re at least partially trained on unlicensed copyrighted material. Clarity is coming in Europe: The forthcoming AI Act mandates some transparency about training data. But in the US, where regulation is sparse, the courts are considering a big legal question about whether using copyrighted material as training data violates the law. At issue is whether the output is “transformative enough.” The answer to this legal question has extremely high stakes. Look for authors and artists to keep suing. But also look for companies, under pressure from lawmakers, to start opening up about how their systems are trained, whether copyrighted material is used, and why they think the stuff their models spit out does not constitute copyright infringement. We at GZERO aren’t holding our breath for writers' royalties (but we’d sure take ’em).
4. A big new law in Europe: The European Union’s AI Act is set to become law in the spring of 2024. Of course, lawmakers could falter before hitting the finish line, but an agreement this month made that unlikely. What’s ahead: The EU just held the first of 11 sessions to hammer out the details of the law, which will lead to a “four-column document” by February, reconciling proposals from the three EU legislative bodies. Only after that will country representatives vote to finalize the act. But this landmark law won’t have teeth in 2024 even if everything goes to plan because there’s a 12-month grace period for companies to comply. It’s all hurry up and wait.
5. The hype cycle continues: Major investment in AI won’t be a flash in the pan for 2023. With hints of lower interest rates, and still-palpable interest in AI from tech investors hungry for massive returns, expect the billion-dollar valuations, IPOs, mergers and acquisitions, and the big-moneyed investment from top tech firms in startups all to accelerate.
6. Congress does something: The US Congress does more bickering than lawmaking today. But there’s real political will to not get left behind on AI regulation. Lawmakers have been regularly discussing AI, grilling its corporate leaders, and brainstorming ideas for governance. They’ve proposed removing red tape for chipmakers, mandating disclosures for AI-generated political ads, and even considered a “light-touch” law-making AI developers self-certify for safety. It’s not necessarily likely that the US will pass something sprawling like the EU’s AI Act, but Congress will likely pass something about AI in the coming year. More than 50 different AI-related bills have been introduced since the 118th Congress began last year, but none have passed through either house of Congress.
7. Antitrust comes for AI: Regulators are circling. The US government sued Google for allegedly abusing its monopolies in search and advertising technology, Amazon for hurting competition on its e-commerce platform, and Meta for buying dominant market power through its Instagram and WhatsApp acquisitions. That’s the hallmark of current FTC Chair Lina Khan and Justice Department antitrust chief Jonathan Kanter, who have been set on enforcing antitrust law against Big Tech. And that fervor is likely to hit AI in 2024. There’s lots of political will to use antitrust law in the UK and Europe, which means scrutiny will soon come to AI. In fact, it’s already here. The FTC and the UK’s Competition and Markets Authority are reportedly probing Microsoft’s investment into OpenAI – it’s not a full-fledged investigation yet, but in 2024 antitrust regulators will be watching AI very closely.
8. Election problems: In 2024, an unprecedented number of countries – some 40-plus – will head to the polls, and many will have their eyes on places like the United States and India for the use of AI in disinformation campaigns ahead of Election Day. There is concern about deepfake technology fueling confusion or contributing to an already-challenging misinformation problem. We’ve already seen deepfake songs impersonating Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and videos portraying US President Joe Biden. But what we haven’t seen yet is AI disrupting an election. Will 2024 be the year that AI-generated words, videos, images, and music play a surprising role in elections?
9. New companies you’ve never heard of. By the end of 2024, the top companies in AI may be the same as today: Anthropic, Google, Meta, Microsoft, and OpenAI. But chances are there will be a startup that you've never heard of on the list. Why? Not only is innovation an everyday reality in AI, but investors are excited to fund these projects to reap potential rewards. In the first half of 2023, AI's share of total startup funding in the US more than doubled from 11% to 26% compared to the same period in 2022. That includes household names and challengers you might have already heard of, such as OpenAI ($29 billion) and Anthropic ($5 billion), which had big funding rounds this year. But there are 15 new AI "unicorns" (billion-dollar companies) that could break into the mainstream, including the enterprise AI firm Cohere ($2.2 billion) and the research lab Imbue ($1 billion). Even in a high-interest rate environment, AI startups have fetched big valuations despite still-paltry revenue estimates — at a time when “easy money” has vanished from the broader tech sector. Expecting stasis would be foolish.
10. The real reason Sam Altman was fired: Expect to learn why OpenAI really fired Sam Altman in 2024. It’s perhaps the great mystery in AI, but it can’t remain a secret forever. If anyone knows the answer, please let us know.