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Finding America's most spineless
Who do all these abandoned spines belong to? You tell us... #PUPPETREGIME
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Sen. John Fetterman, D-Pa., talks with reporters in Russell building after a senate vote on Wednesday, February 19, 2025.
Dems vs GOP: Who Blinks?
House Speaker Mike Johnson is expected to pass a budget bill with only Republican support on Wednesday, sending Senate Democrats an imminent predicament: Either approve a spending bill created solely by the GOP or trigger a shutdown standoff – a strategy they have consistently criticized in the past.
Republicans need at least eight Democratic votes, assuming no additional GOP lawmakers join Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, who has committed to voting against the bill.
Democrats in the House have vowed to oppose the bill unless it includes language mandating that the Trump administration can’t cut the funds they allocate, and favor their alternative bill extending funding at current levels for four weeks instead – giving lawmakers time to craft a bipartisan funding package. However, a few Dems in the Senate may be willing to side with Republicans. Democratic Sen. John Fetterman,for example, has already committed to backing the bill.
The bill would extend government funding at current levels for seven months while adding $6 billion for defense funding and cutting $13 billion from nondefense spending. While that means some nondefense programs will be cut, it’s not expected to touch Medicaid or Social Security, or to be used as a means for Congress to hop on the DOGE train and start drastically downsizing the government. Those larger budget battles aren’t likely until the fall, when Congress needs to set a budget for next year.
Speaker of the US House of Representatives Mike Johnson (Republican of Louisiana) speaks on the importance he sees in the Laken Riley Act.
Republicans’ beachside budget battles
House Republicans are snowbirding from Washington, DC, to Florida’s Miami area this week for their annual policy retreat where they have to figure out how to fund a laundry list of legislative promises before the 2026 midterms.
“The goal is going to be to try to forge a consensus among the Republican factions – with the complication that [Speaker Mike] Johnson basically can't lose any Republican votes,” says Eurasia Group’s US expert Noah Daponte-Smith. Both House and Senate Republicans will need to agree on an identical funding package for it to sidestep a Democratic filibuster and be passed with a simple Republican majority.
But before they can do that, House Republicans need to figure out what’s going to be in the budget and what will be cut, a process that is expected to deepen the divides within the GOP.
Right now, Donald Trump has laid out a list of priorities costing $10 trillion over 10 years. Some of these issues could go in a separate, harder-to-pass bipartisan funding bill that will be negotiated with Democrats over the next two months. The highest priorities for the reconciliation bill will be energy, border security, and tax policy.
What are the sticking points? The far-right Freedom Caucus is expected to demand deep spending cuts, especially with the necessary debt ceiling increase looming. But determining which mandatory and discretionary programs to slash is contentious. Policy-wise, legislators differ on whether to raise or eliminate state and local tax deductions – an issue that Daponte-Smith says blue-state Republicans could end up holding the funding bill hostage over.
How Biden’s presidency will be remembered
Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group's head of research and managing director for the firm's coverage of United States political and policy developments, shares his perspective on US politics from Washington, DC.
This is what we're watching in US Politics this week: One question that's going to be debated for a long time in the coming years is what is President Biden's legacy? I think there are a couple of things that he's going to be remembered for.
The first is the extraordinarily chaotic global environment over which he presided. Republicans will tie this back to the shambolic withdrawal from Afghanistan that President Biden presided over. But following that, you had the Russian invasion in Ukraine and the events of October 7th in the Middle East that led to the ongoing war there that is just now starting to look like it's settling down. But this is clearly going to be one of the background themes of any assessments of President Biden's legacy.
Biden's now one of four one-term presidents in the last 50 years, and one of the reasons that he lost was of course inflation. And inflation, you could argue was fueled by the pandemic or you could argue it was fueled by early actions taken by the Biden administration to spend a lot of money, perhaps more money than was necessary. But either way, the inflationary story of 2021 and 2022 is going to be remembered as one of his key legacies and one of the reasons that he lost reelection. Now that loss to Donald Trump, allowing probably one of the more controversial presidents in certainly recent American history, to come back into office and mount an unprecedented political comeback is also going to be part of Biden's legacy. Because of the fact that he decided that he was able to run even at his advanced age, that blocked out the Democrats from having an opportunity to hold a primary and then forced the Democrats to change horses midstream and move over to Kamala Harris in the middle of the election cycle, who of course lost to Trump. That is also going to be part of his legacy.
And it's unclear. Biden thinks, says it publicly, he could have won election if he just stayed in. He's 82 years old. He'd be the oldest president ever if he did, and there's obvious decline in his faculties over the course of the year. But more importantly, the American people really started to lose confidence in Biden as time went on this year. So not at all clear that he would've won that election or that any other Democrat could have won that election if there were a primary process. But his sticking around and the White House staff and other Democratic operatives that covered for the age-related decline that he was experiencing is also going to be a part of President Biden's election.
Probably one of the more consequential things I think he's going to end up having done over the longer term is increasing the US confrontation with China, particularly over technology policy. The world is at a critical juncture when it comes to the advanced semiconductors and artificial intelligence. And the wall that the Biden administration has been trying to erect around Chinese access to US advanced technologies is going to have ripple effects and repercussions for years to come. The Trump administration's likely to continue a lot of that, and this could potentially be an inflection point in 10 years time as we look back and look at the two different tech ecosystems that are being built out. A lot of that legacy is going to trace back to the Biden administration.
So that's a pretty complex, mixed legacy. The US doesn't have lot of one-term presidents in recent history. Most one-term presidents aren't remembered that fondly. Presidents like George H.W. Bush look a lot better in the long distance of history, whereas President Jimmy Carter who recently passed away still has a bit of a mixed legacy. And that's probably where Biden's going to end up.
- Biden sings his swan song at UNGA, urges support for Ukraine ›
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- Who will Trump’s team be? ›
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- What Donald Trump’s Cabinet picks mean for AI ›
- How a second Trump term could reshape global politics ›
What Trump’s cabinet picks reveal so far
Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group's head of research and managing director for the firm's coverage of United States political and policy developments, shares his perspective on US politics from Washington, DC.
This is what we're watching in US politics this week: It's Trump's transition, of course. Lots of activity happening over the course of the week with some unexpected developments, including a lot of very unusual cabinet appointees. Sean Duffy at Department of Transportation, former "Real World" star and congressman, who has very little experience with transportation other than presumably driving a car, and of course, competing on the "Real World/Road Rules Challenge" is going to be in charge of the transportation department.
Other picks like Pete Hegseth have been a little more controversial. The former Army National Guard member and Fox News host has been accused of sexual assault. Not a great look for the incoming Secretary of Defense. But he's nowhere near as controversial as the recently withdrawn pick, Matt Gaetz, the firebrand Congressman from Florida who resigned his seat in order to become Trump's attorney general, and then found out that no Republican wanted him in that job.
Gaetz's withdrawal will allow some of the more controversial attention to be focused on people like RFK Jr. as the Secretary of Health and Human Services, somebody with a long career in the nonprofit management space, but no experience in public administration and who's been extremely critical of the US's Public Health Administration, including on toxins in foods, additives in foods, vaccines, and the approval process for them. And he's tapped into a strain of anger among Republicans at the public health apparatus that they say failed to protect the public during the COVID-19 epidemic, pointing to inconsistent and sometimes unnecessary masking guidelines. Things like social distancing, keeping the schools closed, and of course the vaccine recommendations that a lot of Republicans rejected during that pandemic. RFK's confirmation odds, however, look pretty good if you look at the relatively warm reception that he's been received with by most Republicans.
One area that's still totally in doubt for the most part is Trump's economic team. It's been two weeks since the election, there's no treasury of the secretary, there's no USTR. There is a commerce secretary pick, another Trump ally who has no experience in public administration, Howard Lutnick, a lot like Wilbur Ross in the first administration, but potentially leaving Trump's trade czar, Robert Lighthizer, without any clear role. So there's a lot more clarity on the national security side than there is on the economic side for now. That may change over the weekend. And of course, the one thing with President Trump is you could always expect the unexpected.
Trump's America: How MAGA came out on top
On this episode of GZERO World, Ian Bremmer unpacks the implications of Donald Trump’s decisive election win, marking his historic return to office and the GOP's comprehensive control over government (assuming they hold onto the House). Despite polls suggesting a razor-close election, Trump won with strong support across critical swing states, including Pennsylvania, where voter shifts were significant even in traditionally Democratic strongholds like Philadelphia. Bremmer discusses Nov 5 and its wide range of implications with Vanderbilt historian Nicole Hemmer and Wall Street Journal correspondent Molly Ball. How did Trump’s return signal a change election? How much of it was driven by voters' discontent with inflation and immigration, and how much was simply the appeal of a populist alternative to the status quo.
The conversation highlights Trump’s longstanding opposition to globalism and his strategy to reshape America’s place on the world stage. With the GOP controlling the presidency, Senate, and likely the House, Trump's second term could bring sweeping policy changes, including a push to consolidate executive power and reduce judicial and institutional independence. Reflecting on the stakes, Molly Ball comments, “If there are not those barriers before him, what is he willing to do? What norms and traditions, not to say laws, is he willing to violate in order to pursue his goals?” Hemmer adds, “The erosion of representative democracy…has accelerated over the past 10 years,” emphasizing the risks of unchecked power. They also examine the Democratic Party’s struggle to resonate with working-class voters across racial lines and its internal debate over progressive versus centrist policies. With both parties facing pressure, there remains an enduring tension between America's democratic ideals and the growing appetite for anti-establishment reform.
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
Donald Trump will take office with unprecedented power
Donald Trump’s 2024 election win gives him a powerful mandate from voters frustrated with government gridlock and bloated bureaucracy. That, along with the Supreme Court’s recent ruling on presidential power, means Trump will take office in January with unprecedented impunity to enact his agenda, radically remake the Federal government, and rewrite institutional norms. So what happens next? On GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, Molly Ball, senior political reporter at The Wall Street Journal, and Nicole Hemmer, a political historian specializing in conservative media, discuss the implications of a second Trump presidency and how he plans to fulfill promises to voters frustrated with the status quo. Trump will be reined in by the Constitution, but beyond that, will face little accountability, giving him near-total power to enact sweeping changes to democratic institutions.
“I think a lot of people are frustrated with the feeling that our institutions are so calcified and bottle-necked that they don’t allow anything to get done,” Balls says, “So I think there is a mandate for Trump to actually execute on his agenda.”
“I think the idea that the president has free rein does have more popular support than I think many liberals and proponents of rule of law would hope,” Hemmer adds, “The idea that there are levers that can be pulled that will suddenly snap into place an accountability regime, those levers don't exist.”
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
Great expectations, grave concerns
What to expect when you’re expecting Trump 2.0? Can he live up to the great expectations he set and alleviate the grave concerns? Let’s spell it out, in true T.R.U.M.P. style.
1. Tariffs and Taxes
Expectation: Donald Trump will quickly ratchet up his America First tariffs policy, potentially slapping 10% to 20% tariffs on all goods coming into the United States — and much higher duties on goods from China, especially cars. The bet is that this will stimulate job growth in the United States and stop the hollowing out of manufacturing caused by globalization and free trade. The Trump promise: Tariffs are “not going to be a cost to you, it’s a cost to another country.”
Concern: In reversing decades of Republican free trade policy, expansive tariffs will drive up the cost of goods for US consumers and increase inflation, as 16 Nobel prize-winning economists wrote in June. The Peterson Institute for International Economics — an independent nonprofit research group — wrote a paper arguing that Trump’s tariffs and tax cuts will push inflation up four points higher by 2026 than it would otherwise. Make America expensive again is one way to see it.
To counteract that, Trump will extend the major tax cuts which he put forward in 2017 and are set to expire next year. That will keep stimulating the economy alongside new tax cuts for corporations and individuals, but it won’t be enough to stop inflation. It also raises another concern: deficits.
According to studies like this one from Wharton, Trump’s deficits could reach between $3 and $7 trillion, up from $1.83 trillion today. “We project that conventionally estimated tax revenue falls by $5.8 trillion over the next 10 years, producing an equivalent amount of primary deficits. Accounting for economic feedback effects, primary deficits increase by $4.1 trillion over the same period,” the Wharton report says.
What will Trump do with big industrial policy programs like Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, which so far has provided over $240 billion in spending and has earmarked another $60 billion for various green industries? Kill it and rescind all the unspent dollars. “To further defeat inflation,” he said recently, “my plan will terminate the Green New Deal, which I call the Green New Scam.” For the green tech world and industries like wind, solar, and even electric cars, this will be a major setback. There will be quick deregulation for oil and gas companies, and new and fast “drill, baby, drill” offshore leases will open up, along with more fracking and pipelines. Not all tax credits from the IRA will be removed, but support for buying EVs will. Expect this to be where Elon Musk makes a dramatic impact.
Prediction: Trump acts fast on some tariffs but not all. He will get a lot of internal pushback as members of his party worry that a series of international trade wars will be triggered, hammering their crucial exports and hurting their economies. Biden will scramble to get the Inflation Reduction Act money out the door, but I am already hearing reports that departments are freezing funds to prepare for the new administration.
2. Retaliation and Revolution
Expectation: With a strong mandate, Trump will have few checks and balances to stop him from taking action against those he has labeled “enemies of the people” or “the enemy within.” What’s more, Trump believes the Supreme Court has given the president total immunity from prosecution for actions undertaken as commander in chief.
An NPR investigation lays out over 100 threats that Trump has made in the last few years, ranging from prosecuting political opponents like President Joe Biden to taking away licenses from news outlets like CBS, NBC, and ABC.
Concern: Trump will try to dismantle what he calls the “Deep State” by reviving his infamous “Schedule F,” which would allow him to fire bureaucrats he doesn’t like and hire ones who agree with his policies.
Trump’s new team is much more experienced and ready than they were in 2016, and the agenda for a radical overhaul of the US government will be led by folks like Elon Musk and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. While there will be massive deregulation, the biggest concern will be a government that launches investigations into any group that challenges its policy.
Prediction: Mass layoffs in the federal government, overhauls of the Department of Education and the FBI, and legal challenges with multiple news organizations.
3. Ukraine
Expectation: While lame-duck Biden will try to get as much money and material to Ukraine before January, Trump will cut it off and try to force a peace. He promised to end the war within 24 hours and to do that he would have to force Ukraine to cede a massive amount of territory to Vladimir Putin.
Concern: NATO allies are in no shape to fill the US gap in aid. Without US assistance, Russia — now with the support of North Korean troops — will start to grab more land. How far will they go before they make a deal? That is up to Trump, but it is bad news for Ukraine.
Prediction: The war grinds on for a year, but eventually Ukraine — running low on equipment and money – will be forced to give up huge swaths of territory in the east. Putin has waited out the US and now has a sympathetic ear in the White House.
4. Mexican Border and the Middle East
On the Mexican border
Expectation: Trump will rapidly end birthright citizenship and begin a massive deportation program of up to 20 million people, which will require building detainment camps. Also, expect the so-called Muslim ban on certain countries to be revived from his first term.
Concern: Besides the key questions about the legality, morality, and practicality of mass deportations, there is the economic impact.
The American Immigration Council wrote a study saying that the deportation program would cost over $315 billion and be extremely difficult to manage. At the height of deportation efforts in recent US history, the country deported approximately half a million people in a single year — and most of those were turned away as they tried to cross, rather than being forced out of the country after they had settled. The long-term impacts of mass deportation on the US economy could add to a crisis. “Due to the loss of workers across U.S. industries, we found that mass deportation would reduce the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) by 4.2 to 6.8 percent,” according to the AIC. “It would also result in significant reduction in tax revenues for the U.S. government. In 2022 alone, undocumented immigrant households paid $46.8 billion in federal taxes and $29.3 billion in state and local taxes. Undocumented immigrants also contributed $22.6 billion to Social Security and $5.7 billion to Medicare.”
Prediction: This is a core promise of the Trump 2.0 administration, and despite the fury this will cause, deportation programs will be set up quickly.
On the Middle East
Expectation: Trump is a strong supporter of the policies of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his fight against Iran and proxies Hamas and Hezbollah. Trump will tell Bibi that he has a clear road ahead to finish the war — though what that means strategically remains unclear — but he will likely demand that the heavy fighting stop before the inauguration. Trump wants to fulfill his promise to end the war in Gaza and, in the process, defeat Iran’s Jihadist allies and ambitions.
Trump’s greatest foreign policy accomplishment in his first term was the Abraham Accords, in which both Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates recognized Israel’s sovereignty and established full diplomatic relations. Could his hard line on Iran build on this and turn the terrible war into a larger peace? That is the hope.
Concern: The biggest issue is that Trump’s unfettered support for Netanyahu will encourage Bibi to double down on his most aggressive strategic goals and undermine any possibility for a two-state solution by continuing massive bombardments in Gaza and Lebanon and by moving more settlers into the West Bank. It could trigger a major war with Iran and light up the entire region. It could also push the Iranians to finally build a nuclear bomb, which would incentivize the US to take military action.
Prediction: The war ends before Trump’s inauguration, but there is no plan for what comes next. Who governs Gaza or southern Lebanon? What is the plan for any rebuilding? What happens to the refugees? The hostages? The festering wounds of this bloody war are not going away soon, and expect ongoing protests in the US and around the world. Other terror groups, like the Houthis in Yemen, will continue to upend any attempt at peace. Worst-case scenario, the war on the battlefield turns into asymmetric terror attacks around the world. Things will get worse before they get better.
5. Pomp and Partisanship
Expectation: 2026 marks the 250th year of the great American experiment in democracy, and Trump has planned for a yearlong celebration that will include parades, a full-year US fair in Iowa, and multiple other events.
This will be the ultimate American and MAGA moment, twinning his remarkably resurrected political movement with the key US anniversary. The Trump dynasty will be tied to the American destiny.
Concern: This year would be celebrated by any president, so there is no over-concern in principle, but President-elect Trump is also the commander in chief of the culture war against what he calls wokeness. The culture war has animated his entire movement and its loudest proclaimer, Tucker Carlson. Expect these celebrations to reflect the administration’s values and to be strategically allied with the anti-woke messaging that has been so divisive across the country.
Prediction: Great parties in places like Iowa, increased tourism, and probably a military parade in Washington, which Trump has always wanted — but also big controversy. In a country where athletes quietly kneeling during the singing of the national anthem before a football game can become a major battle in the culture wars, there is a real risk that partisan politics will turn a year of unity into one of deep divisions. Let’s hope not.