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What Trump’s cabinet picks reveal so far
Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group's head of research and managing director for the firm's coverage of United States political and policy developments, shares his perspective on US politics from Washington, DC.
This is what we're watching in US politics this week: It's Trump's transition, of course. Lots of activity happening over the course of the week with some unexpected developments, including a lot of very unusual cabinet appointees. Sean Duffy at Department of Transportation, former "Real World" star and congressman, who has very little experience with transportation other than presumably driving a car, and of course, competing on the "Real World/Road Rules Challenge" is going to be in charge of the transportation department.
Other picks like Pete Hegseth have been a little more controversial. The former Army National Guard member and Fox News host has been accused of sexual assault. Not a great look for the incoming Secretary of Defense. But he's nowhere near as controversial as the recently withdrawn pick, Matt Gaetz, the firebrand Congressman from Florida who resigned his seat in order to become Trump's attorney general, and then found out that no Republican wanted him in that job.
Gaetz's withdrawal will allow some of the more controversial attention to be focused on people like RFK Jr. as the Secretary of Health and Human Services, somebody with a long career in the nonprofit management space, but no experience in public administration and who's been extremely critical of the US's Public Health Administration, including on toxins in foods, additives in foods, vaccines, and the approval process for them. And he's tapped into a strain of anger among Republicans at the public health apparatus that they say failed to protect the public during the COVID-19 epidemic, pointing to inconsistent and sometimes unnecessary masking guidelines. Things like social distancing, keeping the schools closed, and of course the vaccine recommendations that a lot of Republicans rejected during that pandemic. RFK's confirmation odds, however, look pretty good if you look at the relatively warm reception that he's been received with by most Republicans.
One area that's still totally in doubt for the most part is Trump's economic team. It's been two weeks since the election, there's no treasury of the secretary, there's no USTR. There is a commerce secretary pick, another Trump ally who has no experience in public administration, Howard Lutnick, a lot like Wilbur Ross in the first administration, but potentially leaving Trump's trade czar, Robert Lighthizer, without any clear role. So there's a lot more clarity on the national security side than there is on the economic side for now. That may change over the weekend. And of course, the one thing with President Trump is you could always expect the unexpected.
Trump's America: How MAGA came out on top
On this episode of GZERO World, Ian Bremmer unpacks the implications of Donald Trump’s decisive election win, marking his historic return to office and the GOP's comprehensive control over government (assuming they hold onto the House). Despite polls suggesting a razor-close election, Trump won with strong support across critical swing states, including Pennsylvania, where voter shifts were significant even in traditionally Democratic strongholds like Philadelphia. Bremmer discusses Nov 5 and its wide range of implications with Vanderbilt historian Nicole Hemmer and Wall Street Journal correspondent Molly Ball. How did Trump’s return signal a change election? How much of it was driven by voters' discontent with inflation and immigration, and how much was simply the appeal of a populist alternative to the status quo.
The conversation highlights Trump’s longstanding opposition to globalism and his strategy to reshape America’s place on the world stage. With the GOP controlling the presidency, Senate, and likely the House, Trump's second term could bring sweeping policy changes, including a push to consolidate executive power and reduce judicial and institutional independence. Reflecting on the stakes, Molly Ball comments, “If there are not those barriers before him, what is he willing to do? What norms and traditions, not to say laws, is he willing to violate in order to pursue his goals?” Hemmer adds, “The erosion of representative democracy…has accelerated over the past 10 years,” emphasizing the risks of unchecked power. They also examine the Democratic Party’s struggle to resonate with working-class voters across racial lines and its internal debate over progressive versus centrist policies. With both parties facing pressure, there remains an enduring tension between America's democratic ideals and the growing appetite for anti-establishment reform.
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
Donald Trump will take office with unprecedented power
Donald Trump’s 2024 election win gives him a powerful mandate from voters frustrated with government gridlock and bloated bureaucracy. That, along with the Supreme Court’s recent ruling on presidential power, means Trump will take office in January with unprecedented impunity to enact his agenda, radically remake the Federal government, and rewrite institutional norms. So what happens next? On GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, Molly Ball, senior political reporter at The Wall Street Journal, and Nicole Hemmer, a political historian specializing in conservative media, discuss the implications of a second Trump presidency and how he plans to fulfill promises to voters frustrated with the status quo. Trump will be reined in by the Constitution, but beyond that, will face little accountability, giving him near-total power to enact sweeping changes to democratic institutions.
“I think a lot of people are frustrated with the feeling that our institutions are so calcified and bottle-necked that they don’t allow anything to get done,” Balls says, “So I think there is a mandate for Trump to actually execute on his agenda.”
“I think the idea that the president has free rein does have more popular support than I think many liberals and proponents of rule of law would hope,” Hemmer adds, “The idea that there are levers that can be pulled that will suddenly snap into place an accountability regime, those levers don't exist.”
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
Great expectations, grave concerns
What to expect when you’re expecting Trump 2.0? Can he live up to the great expectations he set and alleviate the grave concerns? Let’s spell it out, in true T.R.U.M.P. style.
1. Tariffs and Taxes
Expectation: Donald Trump will quickly ratchet up his America First tariffs policy, potentially slapping 10% to 20% tariffs on all goods coming into the United States — and much higher duties on goods from China, especially cars. The bet is that this will stimulate job growth in the United States and stop the hollowing out of manufacturing caused by globalization and free trade. The Trump promise: Tariffs are “not going to be a cost to you, it’s a cost to another country.”
Concern: In reversing decades of Republican free trade policy, expansive tariffs will drive up the cost of goods for US consumers and increase inflation, as 16 Nobel prize-winning economists wrote in June. The Peterson Institute for International Economics — an independent nonprofit research group — wrote a paper arguing that Trump’s tariffs and tax cuts will push inflation up four points higher by 2026 than it would otherwise. Make America expensive again is one way to see it.
To counteract that, Trump will extend the major tax cuts which he put forward in 2017 and are set to expire next year. That will keep stimulating the economy alongside new tax cuts for corporations and individuals, but it won’t be enough to stop inflation. It also raises another concern: deficits.
According to studies like this one from Wharton, Trump’s deficits could reach between $3 and $7 trillion, up from $1.83 trillion today. “We project that conventionally estimated tax revenue falls by $5.8 trillion over the next 10 years, producing an equivalent amount of primary deficits. Accounting for economic feedback effects, primary deficits increase by $4.1 trillion over the same period,” the Wharton report says.
What will Trump do with big industrial policy programs like Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, which so far has provided over $240 billion in spending and has earmarked another $60 billion for various green industries? Kill it and rescind all the unspent dollars. “To further defeat inflation,” he said recently, “my plan will terminate the Green New Deal, which I call the Green New Scam.” For the green tech world and industries like wind, solar, and even electric cars, this will be a major setback. There will be quick deregulation for oil and gas companies, and new and fast “drill, baby, drill” offshore leases will open up, along with more fracking and pipelines. Not all tax credits from the IRA will be removed, but support for buying EVs will. Expect this to be where Elon Musk makes a dramatic impact.
Prediction: Trump acts fast on some tariffs but not all. He will get a lot of internal pushback as members of his party worry that a series of international trade wars will be triggered, hammering their crucial exports and hurting their economies. Biden will scramble to get the Inflation Reduction Act money out the door, but I am already hearing reports that departments are freezing funds to prepare for the new administration.
2. Retaliation and Revolution
Expectation: With a strong mandate, Trump will have few checks and balances to stop him from taking action against those he has labeled “enemies of the people” or “the enemy within.” What’s more, Trump believes the Supreme Court has given the president total immunity from prosecution for actions undertaken as commander in chief.
An NPR investigation lays out over 100 threats that Trump has made in the last few years, ranging from prosecuting political opponents like President Joe Biden to taking away licenses from news outlets like CBS, NBC, and ABC.
Concern: Trump will try to dismantle what he calls the “Deep State” by reviving his infamous “Schedule F,” which would allow him to fire bureaucrats he doesn’t like and hire ones who agree with his policies.
Trump’s new team is much more experienced and ready than they were in 2016, and the agenda for a radical overhaul of the US government will be led by folks like Elon Musk and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. While there will be massive deregulation, the biggest concern will be a government that launches investigations into any group that challenges its policy.
Prediction: Mass layoffs in the federal government, overhauls of the Department of Education and the FBI, and legal challenges with multiple news organizations.
3. Ukraine
Expectation: While lame-duck Biden will try to get as much money and material to Ukraine before January, Trump will cut it off and try to force a peace. He promised to end the war within 24 hours and to do that he would have to force Ukraine to cede a massive amount of territory to Vladimir Putin.
Concern: NATO allies are in no shape to fill the US gap in aid. Without US assistance, Russia — now with the support of North Korean troops — will start to grab more land. How far will they go before they make a deal? That is up to Trump, but it is bad news for Ukraine.
Prediction: The war grinds on for a year, but eventually Ukraine — running low on equipment and money – will be forced to give up huge swaths of territory in the east. Putin has waited out the US and now has a sympathetic ear in the White House.
4. Mexican Border and the Middle East
On the Mexican border
Expectation: Trump will rapidly end birthright citizenship and begin a massive deportation program of up to 20 million people, which will require building detainment camps. Also, expect the so-called Muslim ban on certain countries to be revived from his first term.
Concern: Besides the key questions about the legality, morality, and practicality of mass deportations, there is the economic impact.
The American Immigration Council wrote a study saying that the deportation program would cost over $315 billion and be extremely difficult to manage. At the height of deportation efforts in recent US history, the country deported approximately half a million people in a single year — and most of those were turned away as they tried to cross, rather than being forced out of the country after they had settled. The long-term impacts of mass deportation on the US economy could add to a crisis. “Due to the loss of workers across U.S. industries, we found that mass deportation would reduce the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) by 4.2 to 6.8 percent,” according to the AIC. “It would also result in significant reduction in tax revenues for the U.S. government. In 2022 alone, undocumented immigrant households paid $46.8 billion in federal taxes and $29.3 billion in state and local taxes. Undocumented immigrants also contributed $22.6 billion to Social Security and $5.7 billion to Medicare.”
Prediction: This is a core promise of the Trump 2.0 administration, and despite the fury this will cause, deportation programs will be set up quickly.
On the Middle East
Expectation: Trump is a strong supporter of the policies of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his fight against Iran and proxies Hamas and Hezbollah. Trump will tell Bibi that he has a clear road ahead to finish the war — though what that means strategically remains unclear — but he will likely demand that the heavy fighting stop before the inauguration. Trump wants to fulfill his promise to end the war in Gaza and, in the process, defeat Iran’s Jihadist allies and ambitions.
Trump’s greatest foreign policy accomplishment in his first term was the Abraham Accords, in which both Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates recognized Israel’s sovereignty and established full diplomatic relations. Could his hard line on Iran build on this and turn the terrible war into a larger peace? That is the hope.
Concern: The biggest issue is that Trump’s unfettered support for Netanyahu will encourage Bibi to double down on his most aggressive strategic goals and undermine any possibility for a two-state solution by continuing massive bombardments in Gaza and Lebanon and by moving more settlers into the West Bank. It could trigger a major war with Iran and light up the entire region. It could also push the Iranians to finally build a nuclear bomb, which would incentivize the US to take military action.
Prediction: The war ends before Trump’s inauguration, but there is no plan for what comes next. Who governs Gaza or southern Lebanon? What is the plan for any rebuilding? What happens to the refugees? The hostages? The festering wounds of this bloody war are not going away soon, and expect ongoing protests in the US and around the world. Other terror groups, like the Houthis in Yemen, will continue to upend any attempt at peace. Worst-case scenario, the war on the battlefield turns into asymmetric terror attacks around the world. Things will get worse before they get better.
5. Pomp and Partisanship
Expectation: 2026 marks the 250th year of the great American experiment in democracy, and Trump has planned for a yearlong celebration that will include parades, a full-year US fair in Iowa, and multiple other events.
This will be the ultimate American and MAGA moment, twinning his remarkably resurrected political movement with the key US anniversary. The Trump dynasty will be tied to the American destiny.
Concern: This year would be celebrated by any president, so there is no over-concern in principle, but President-elect Trump is also the commander in chief of the culture war against what he calls wokeness. The culture war has animated his entire movement and its loudest proclaimer, Tucker Carlson. Expect these celebrations to reflect the administration’s values and to be strategically allied with the anti-woke messaging that has been so divisive across the country.
Prediction: Great parties in places like Iowa, increased tourism, and probably a military parade in Washington, which Trump has always wanted — but also big controversy. In a country where athletes quietly kneeling during the singing of the national anthem before a football game can become a major battle in the culture wars, there is a real risk that partisan politics will turn a year of unity into one of deep divisions. Let’s hope not.
US election: GOP could win a Trump-led sweep
Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group's head of research and managing director for the firm's coverage of United States political and policy developments, shares his perspective on US politics from Washington, DC.
It's election night in America. And a slightly unexpected result tonight, with the election returns coming back very strong for President Donald Trump. He may actually end up winning the national popular vote, which was not, I think, on anyone's bingo card, really.
Big surprise for Trump has been a surge in rural support where the Trump coalition showed up to vote for him. Meanwhile, Harris has somewhat underperformed in urban areas, and while she did have a pretty good showing with women voters, it wasn't enough to keep her ahead of Trump, at least in the results as we know them tonight.
Harris has been underperforming down-ballot Democrats generally, which has kept the Democrats competitive in the House, which could lead to an unusual situation where all three of the main political bodies in the United States, the White House, the House, and the Senate, flip in the same election. The Senate is in the bag for Republicans. They're going to have somewhere between 52 and 55 seats, it looks like. And Trump is probably the favorite to win in the Electoral College.
The House outcome we may not know in the next 24 hours. Some of the House seats that really matter in determining the majority, which is very close, are slow to count. But right now, it does look like Democrats have some momentum with a couple of Republicans losing key seats.
So stay tuned for more of what we're watching this week in US politics.
Top threats to US election security
As Election Day approaches, US cybersecurity chief Jen Easterly warns that while America’s voting systems are more secure than ever, the period between voting and certification remains vulnerable, with foreign adversaries poised to exploit any internal divisions during this critical time.
In a wide-ranging interview with Ian Bremmer on GZERO World before Election Day, Easterly, the director of Homeland Security's Center for Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, discussed the massive improvements to the nation’s voting systems and emphasized: “with great confidence that election infrastructure has never been more secure.”
However, as for that sensitive period, after votes are counted and reported but before they are officially certified, Easterly is much more concerned. "Between November 5th and January 6th—when the Congress is going to certify the vote—our foreign adversaries are going to go hog wild.” She points to intelligence that Russia, China, Iran, and other US adversaries will be waiting to exploit any internal divisions. But they can only exploit what is already there, and if 2020 taught us anything, it is that the certification of election results is far from a formality. Can we hold it together long enough to peacefully transfer power? Let's hope that this election cycle past is not prologue.
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
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Ian Explains: Your vote is secure, so why are you still worried?
As Americans head to the polls, election officials face the dual challenge of safeguarding both the voting process and public confidence in it, with foreign adversaries and domestic actors ready to exploit any lingering doubts about election integrity. On Ian Explains, Ian Bremmer discusses the roots of Americans’ mistrust in the security of their votes, even though election systems are indeed secure.
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
Will offensive Puerto Rico remarks hurt Trump's chances?
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
With the US election a week away, why do Israelis prefer a Trump presidency?
Well, they see that he's prioritized Israel. His first presidency, he was the guy that went to Israel. This was his first trip right after going to the Gulf. That never happens with US presidents. He recognized the Golan Heights as being Israeli territory, the occupied territory they have. Had no problems with taking more territory in the West Bank. Moved the US Embassy to Jerusalem. I mean, this has just been someone who has been significantly and consistently pro-Israel, and a lot of his money comes from some of the biggest Israeli-sponsored funds and funders in the United States. I suspect that that is the reason. Keep in mind, lots of US allies around the world. Most of them generally don't support Trump. They support Harris because "America First" is not considered exactly a happy marketing slogan if you don't happen to be American. But Israel, like Hungary, like El Salvador, like Argentina, a few others, the exceptions of that.
How might the results of the Georgia elections and subsequent protests affect political stability and EU membership prospects?
Well, the Georgia Dream Party that has won have said that they still want to join the European Union. But given the fact that they have moved their legal system in a more illiberal direction, they make it much harder for Georgia to join the EU. Of course, that process has been not moved forward while it did for Ukraine and for Moldova over the last year. Also, the fact that it looks like Georgia Dream has done everything they can to steal the elections through election monitors that we've seen in rural areas across the country. Again, not a way to move forward with the European Union. It looks a lot less likely and political instability in Georgia is something we're going to see a lot more of going forward.
To what extent will Puerto Rico and Latino voters sway the election in Kamala Harris's favor?
Hard to say. But the fact that there was a really offensive slur against Puerto Ricans on stage in advance of Trump's big rally at Madison Square Garden this weekend, one that even the Trump campaign felt the need to distance the president from, former president, which they almost never do. This is a guy that doubles down on almost everything is because there are a lot of Puerto Ricans that vote. That's particularly true in swing states, particularly true in Pennsylvania, several hundred thousand. Certainly, that's why Kamala Harris is immediately running ads and putting money behind it on the other side. Trump has not made many mistakes in the last couple of weeks that look like they're vote losers in swing states, and this is one in my view. Whoever this comic is, clearly the jokes weren't adequately vetted. But will it make a difference? Well, we'll see you on Tuesday. Right? This is a razor's edge election and it's going to be super close in my view. That's it for me, and I'll talk to you all real soon.
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