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US President Donald Trump and Argentine President Javier Milei react at the White House in Washington, D.C., USA, on October 14, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Trump makes conditional pledge to Argentina’s Milei, Syria’s new leader meets old foe, Cameroon’s opposition leader declares victory
Trump pledges money to Argentina – if Milei’s party wins midterm
US President Donald Trump appeared to hand Argentine President Javier Milei a financial lifeline ahead of the South American nation’s midterm election later this month, pledging to grant the long-suffering economy a $20-billion bailout. But, the US leader added, “If he loses, we are not going to be generous with Argentina.” Trump denied that he was seeking to boost Milei ahead of the midterms, but Democrats criticized him for helping out a foreign administration while the US federal government is shut down. It’s also unclear what would constitute enough of a “win” for Milei in the eyes of Trump – the Argentine leader is hoping to win a third of Chamber of Deputies seats so that he can gain veto power.
Syria and Russia meeting turn enemies into allies again
Syria’s new President Ahmed al-Sharaa visited Russia on Wednesday, meeting with one of the biggest backers of the Assad regime he overthrew. Both Syria and Russia have reasons to bury that hatchet. Al-Sharaa is seeking guarantees that Russia won’t rearm remnants of Assad’s forces, and could instead help rebuild Syria’s army. He also implored Moscow to hand over Assad to face trial in Syria. Meanwhile, Russia has lost or been restricted from accessing its military bases and naval ports in Syria, which provide Russia its only stopover points in the eastern Mediterranean for planes and ships traveling to Africa. Following the meeting, al-Sharaa said that Syria would honor all past deals struck between the two countries, suggesting that Russia’s military bases may be open for business again soon.
Cameroon’s opposition leader declares victory over 43-year incumbent
One might not expect that a battle between a 92-year-old and a 79-year-old — who happens to be his former friend — would necessarily have such major consequences for a country, but that’s exactly the case for Cameroon. Opposition leader Issa Tchiroma Bakary, 79, claimed victory yesterday over President Paul Biya, 92, following Sunday’s presidential election, and called on the long-time leader to “honour the truth of the ballot box.” Biya’s party denied Tchiroma’s claims, though the long-time leader hasn’t necessarily been the most reliable practitioner of democracy. The official results for Sunday’s poll have yet to be announced – the deadline for their certification is Oct. 26.
Putting institutions above individuals: Ending impunity to save trust in democracy
Ambassador Paula Narváez Ojeda warns that when powerful actors break norms without consequences, young people lose faith, further pushing societies toward tribalism and away from respectful debate, amplified by toxic social media dynamics. The fix: put institutions above individuals and make accountability real.
“How can we talk about democracy’s importance if people witness every day that nothing happens to those who don’t respect it?”
Excerpt from a Global Stage livestream at UN HQ on the International Day of Democracy.
Watch more of GZERO Media’s Global Stage series, sponsored by Microsoft, from the 80th Session of the United Nations General Assembly here: gzeromedia.com/globalstage
Why is public trust low, and how to fix it
Why is trust in democracy so low?
Iain Walker, executive director of the newDemocracy Foundation, argues that the incentives of modern elections, which reward demonization and five-second public opinion, make it difficult to solve complex problems. The fix: create spaces for public judgment where citizens have time, access to information, and a mandate to deliberate.
“The way to win elections is to manipulate public opinion … but when you have a chance to think, public judgment, it’s very different.”
Excerpt from a Global Stage livestream at UN HQ on the International Day of Democracy.
Watch more of GZERO Media’s Global Stage series, sponsored by Microsoft, from the 80th Session of the United Nations General Assembly here: gzeromedia.com/globalstage
Democracy 2.0: Delivering on people’s needs
Are there more autocracies than democracies in the world today, and why does it matter? María del Carmen Sacasa (UNDP LAC) argues we’re in a paradigm shift, not a terminal crisis.
“It’s not a crisis, it’s a transformation. We need a Democracy 2.0 that still protects freedom, equity, and human rights, and delivers on people’s needs.”
Today, democracies face greater scrutiny and must deliver on rights, equity, and everyday needs. Call it Democracy 2.0: where development and democracy advance together, and citizen voices, both online and in the streets, shape policy.
Excerpt from a Global Stage livestream at UN HQ on the International Day of Democracy.
Watch more of GZERO Media’s Global Stage series, sponsored by Microsoft, from the 80th Session of the United Nations General Assembly here: gzeromedia.com/globalstage
Citizens’ assemblies helped Ireland move from conflict to consensus
Citizens’ assemblies helped Northern Ireland transform a violent past into today’s deliberative politics.
Ambassador Fergal Mythen traces the arc from the New Ireland Forum (1983–84) through national roadshows and town halls to today’s independent citizens’ assemblies, processes that fed into parliament, broadened public understanding, and built “losers’ consent.”
Together, these forums helped reshape how Ireland confronted the Northern Ireland conflict, moving from the divisive politics of the 1970s–80s to a more consensus-driven approach today.
“Parliamentary politics alone couldn’t bring people together … Citizens’ assemblies and national dialogues helped us build awareness and understanding," said Mythen.
Excerpt from a Global Stage livestream at UN HQ on the International Day of Democracy.
Watch more of GZERO Media’s Global Stage series, sponsored by Microsoft, from the 80th Session of the United Nations General Assembly here: gzeromedia.com/globalstage.
Participation = trust: Malawi’s citizens’ juries deliver democracy
Public trust isn’t a “nice to have," it’s the foundation of democracy.
Ambassador Agnes Mary Chimbiri-Molande explains how citizens’ juries in Malawi bring people into local budgeting and development decisions, building transparency and trust by design.
Excerpt from a Global Stage livestream at UN HQ on the International Day of Democracy at the 80th UN General Assembly.
Watch more of GZERO Media’s Global Stage series, sponsored by Microsoft, from the 80th Session of the United Nations General Assembly here: gzeromedia.com/globalstage
Last Thursday, Brazil’s Supreme Court delivered a historic verdict: Jair Bolsonaro, the far-right former president who tried to overturn the 2022 election, was convicted along with seven close allies for conspiring against democracy and plotting to assassinate his rivals, including President Lula. Bolsonaro was sentenced to 27 years in prison and barred from office until 2060. At 70, he will likely spend his remaining years behind bars.
Despite conviction, Bolsonaro’s shadow looms over Brazilian politics
Last Thursday, Brazil’s Supreme Court delivered a historic verdict: Jair Bolsonaro, the far-right former president who tried to overturn the 2022 election, was convicted along with seven close allies for conspiring against democracy and plotting to assassinate his rivals, including President Lula. Bolsonaro was sentenced to 27 years in prison and barred from office until 2060. At 70, he will likely spend his remaining years behind bars. (Though if he makes it to 105, he might still be viable in American politics.)
The decision was hardly surprising – the only thing unexpected was Justice Luiz Fux's dissent in the five-judge panel. The evidence against Bolsonaro was overwhelming, making a successful appeal unlikely. This marks the first time in Brazil’s history that a coup plotter has been brought to justice – a staggering win for the rule of law in a country that only returned to democracy in 1985 after two decades of military dictatorship.
But anyone expecting this moment to turn the page on the radical polarization of the Bolsonaro era and heal Brazil’s political wounds is in for a rude awakening. If anything, the ruling will deepen Brazil’s existing divides and further erode trust in institutions – courts, the media, political parties – heading into next year’s presidential election. The country remains as hopelessly divided as ever, with 51% of Brazilians approving the conviction while 43% see it as political persecution – reflecting partisan opposition to and support for Bolsonaro.
And also no surprise: US President Donald Trump is pouring gasoline on the fire. Bolsonaro’s friend and ideological ally has called the trial a “witch hunt” and weaponized American leverage to bully Brazil into dropping the charges. Even before the verdict came down, the White House had slapped 50% tariffs on Brazilian goods, revoked travel visas for government officials and Supreme Court justices, and hit Alexandre de Moraes – the lead judge on the case – with Magnitsky sanctions typically reserved for the world’s worst human-rights abusers. Following the conviction, Secretary of State Marco Rubio promised America would "respond accordingly" to what he called an "unjust" ruling. More visa suspensions, expanded Magnitsky sanctions, and potential penalties against state-owned Banco do Brasil are on the way.
But Trump's attempts to help Bolsonaro will continue to do the exact opposite. The ex-president’s son Eduardo, a congressman close to Steve Bannon who moved to Texas and has been lobbying the White House for tougher measures against his own country, is now hugely unpopular at home and faces potential criminal charges. By contrast, President Lula has seized the moment to rally Brazilians around the flag, casting himself as the defender of national sovereignty against Trump and the Bolsonaro clan. His defiance has boosted his popularity and, together with easing inflation, makes him a narrow favorite heading into 2026.
Meanwhile, both countries will lose as US-Brazil relations sink further, especially if Lula’s retaliation leads to a tit-for-tat escalatory spiral. But Brasilia, like most other world capitals, is already hedging away from US leverage – deepening ties with Europe, China, the Middle East, Mexico, Canada, and potentially ASEAN to make sure Washington is less able to hurt it in the future (more on this here). The ultimate casualty may be the century-old partnership between the Western Hemisphere's two largest democracies.
What about a get-out-of-jail-free card? Bolsonaristas have been pushing for an amnesty bill that would pardon everyone involved in the January 8 coup attempt, including the former president. But the bill faces (very) long odds. Never mind that more than half of Brazilians oppose full clemency for Bolsonaro – so does most of the Senate leadership. Plus, the Supreme Court has already signaled that crimes against democracy aren’t pardonable, rendering any blanket amnesty law unconstitutional. Lawmakers might agree to reduce sentences for the 1,600 rank-and-file Jan. 8 rioters in order to break the current congressional deadlock. But, for now at least, Bolsonaro and his inner circle look set to do serious time.
And yet, even from behind bars, the ex-president will remain the undisputed leader of the opposition. He’s still competitive with Lula in hypothetical head-to-head polls, and his martyr status with his base guarantees he’ll be the kingmaker of the Brazilian right in 2026. Whoever he anoints to succeed him will almost certainly make it to the run-off. His goal will be to install someone who is likely to both beat Lula and secure his freedom.
But wait – didn’t I just say that Bolsonaro can’t be pardoned? Yes, but here’s the twist: Though the current Supreme Court says pardons for anti-democratic crimes are unconstitutional, the next president will have a chance to reshape the court’s composition, and Justice Fux's dissenting vote suggests that a different court might view the ex-president’s case more favorably. That means Bolsonaro’s path to freedom may depend less on today’s legal rulings than on the outcome of the next election.
So, who will get the nod to lead the right in 2026? Bolsonaro is torn between loyalty and electability. His first choice, a family member (whether one of his three sons or his wife, Michelle), guarantees the former but is a tougher sell to swing voters, especially given their associations with Trump's politically toxic penalties. The other option is São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas, who has real national appeal and polls better against Lula. Popular, pragmatic, and disciplined, Freitas has been making all the right noises for the convicted ex-President, criticizing the court, pushing Congress for amnesty, and vowing to pardon Bolsonaro on day one. Justice Fux’s dissent strengthens the case, however thin, for Freitas to argue that he’s better placed to negotiate a future pardon with a reconstituted Supreme Court and therefore that he’s Bolsonaro’s best shot at freedom.
Yet Bolsonaro also knows that if Freitas backtracks on his promise or his pardon hits a judicial wall, the former president could be left to rot in jail while his successor consolidates power. That’s why, even if Freitas looks like the logical choice today, Bolsonaro will likely keep his cards close to his chest right up to the filing deadline, when he could go either way.
Brazil’s democracy emerged from its coup attempt stronger than before. Institutions held firm, justice was served, and the rule of law carried the day. That’s more than the United States can say. But it’s only half the battle. Courts can send a former president to prison; they can’t send him into political oblivion or unite a country that’s split right down the middle. Bolsonaro may spend the rest of his life behind bars, but his influence – and the nation’s bitter divides – will continue to shape Brazilian politics for years to come.
Charlie Kirk's assassination will make things worse in the US
In the latest episode of Quick Take, Ian Bremmer denounces the assassination of Charlie Kirk, cautioning that it will deepen America’s political dysfunction rather than unite the country.
Ian says this is a stress test for an already fragile political system and that political violence is not a solution.
“If you think freedom of speech and the provision of justice is for you and not those you disagree with, you need to change,” says Ian. “Americans must learn from people we disagree with, not demonize them.”
Warning about the trend of violence for attention, Ian also explains the US can still learn about representative democracy, civil society, respect, compassion, and leadership from its counterparts. And the “only people who benefit are the ones that want to destroy the American system, those that want to use the violence to create a one-party system.”