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How will the summer of 2024 be remembered in US history?
We are living through history in the making, and it is stressful. On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer asks media journalist Brian Stelter and Vanderbilt historian Nicole Hemmer how future generations will view the current political moment in the United States.
They’ll learn, Stelter says, that “the struggle for a true multiracial democracy was incredibly volatile, was in times even scary." He points out that this tumultuous period is characterized by fierce battles between figures like Donald Trump, who offer simplistic solutions, and figures like Joe Biden, who resist such approaches. They’ll learn that “figures like Donald Trump came forward with easy solutions that actually weren't that easy at all” and that “figures like Joe Biden came forward to try to resist the Trumps of the world."
Nicole Hemmer echoes Stelter's sentiments, describing the current era as a testing ground for multiracial democracy. “This will either be a story of counter-majoritarian institutions stamping out public desires, or it will be a story of reforms that remade those institutions in order to make them reflect the will of the people.” We'll either be a more or less democratic United States after this moment, Hemmer adds, and what happens in the next months and years will decide that.'
Watch full episode: Trump, Biden & the US election: What could be next?
Season 7 of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, launches nationwide on public television stations (check local listings).
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Rwanda's incumbent President and presidential candidate for the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) Paul Kagame waves to his supporters as he arrives for his final campaign rally in Gahanga, Kicukiro district in Kigali, Rwanda, July 13, 2024.
Rwanda votes: Kagame looks set to secure fourth term
Rwandans are heading to the polls Monday for a presidential election, and while official results are not expected until next Saturday, President Paul Kagame – who won with a suspicious 98.8% of the vote in 2017 – looks set to secure a fourth term.
Kagame first came to power in 1994, when he led the rebel militia and overthrew the Hutu government responsible for the Rwandan genocide that killed over 800,000 people. He’s been in power for over three decades and oversaw the removal of term limits via referendum in 2015.
Praised for returning stability to the country, and for its emergence as a financial hub, Kagame has also come under increasing international scrutiny for alleged human rights violations and for backing rebel groups in the neighboring Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Voter turnout is expected to be high, but against a backdrop of crackdowns on the opposition and political dissent, there are valid questions as to how free and fair the election is. Only two opposition candidates – the same two allowed to face Kagame in 2017 – were cleared by the state-run electoral commission this time. Any candidate who stood even a chance of being competitive against Kagame was barred, imprisoned, or has reportedly since disappeared.
We’ll be watching to see the level of voter turnout and victory and to see how Kagame uses his next term to shape Rwanda’s foreign policy.
Ian Bremmer’s 2024 elections halftime report
2024 is fast becoming the most intense year of democracy the world has ever seen. Some 4 billion people, nearly half the global population, are casting ballots in at least 70 countries. With so many people voting around the world, 2024 has been dubbed “The Year of Elections.” And we’re now about halfway through, so how are things going?
Ian Bremmer is here to unpack the wins, losses, and big surprises in elections in Mexico, India, South Africa, and Taiwan. Do large mandates from voters mean big political changes on the horizon? Can shaky coalitions work together without crumbling into chaos? And, of course, the final showdown of 2024 will take place in the United States this November, an election that will have far-reaching consequences not only for the United States … but for democracy itself.
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week on US public television (check local listings) and online.
Hunter Biden's convictions won't derail his father's re-election bid
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60, live from the Toronto US-Canada Summit.
What are the implications of Hunter Biden's convictions for his father's presidential campaign?
You know, it's a little bit of tit for tat. You're going to see a lot of Republicans saying, “See the Biden crime family! Look at this guy. I mean, he's a convict.” It's ugly. It's embarrassing for the Biden family, of course. But at the same time, it's not very significant charges and it certainly doesn't link directly to President Biden. Five months away, are people going to be talking about this or Trump's 34 convictions, the weakest of the cases that he's actually facing? I suspect neither of them are going to matter very much, even though, on balance, Trump's is the one that should matter more.
Will recent EU elections bring a dramatic shift to Europe or more of the same?
Well, overall, the European Parliament looks a lot like the old European Parliament. A few more seats for the right wing, but the far-right is not very aligned, doesn't work cohesively. I still think Ursula von der Leyen is going to be, yet again, European Commission president. And in many countries the populist, the anti-establishment did a lot worse. In Sweden, for example, in Portugal and others. On balance, there's not much change here. Two things that matter one a little bit is that Schulz and his Social Democrats really underperformed. The German economy not doing well, he's not seen as much of a leader. A three-party coalition, Germany, largely centrist and pretty stable no matter what. Much bigger: France. Macron's party, historically, got pasted. That's why he's called for parliamentary elections in just a few weeks. And when they happen, if Le Pen's party, the National Rally, wins and they're able to put forward a prime minister, there's is a major, major problem for governance in France and for the need of anything that the EU has to have parliamentary approval in France to get done, and that includes the Ukraine problem going forward.
How Canadians viewing the impending Biden Trump rematch?
You know, in some ways a little more comfortably than they did the last time around because the US-Mexico-Canada agreement's already in place and Trump got it done with this Canadian government. So, I think that they feel a little like, “Hey, we dealt with them once, we can deal with them again.” There's much more strategy and strategic alignment in the importance of the US-Canada relationship today than there was five, 10 years ago, in part because on China they're much more aligned, on things like, major wars outside of this part of the world, they're much more aligned, on Haiti, they're much more aligned. But also keep in mind that Canada's also facing an election in a year. And right now, it looks like the Tories, the conservatives in Canada, would win big, ahead by over 20 points. In which case you'd have a Canadian government and a US government, if Trump were to win, that would be very aligned. Just on a very different part of the political spectrum. Either way, very friendly and very stable relationship, which is more than we can say for most of them around the world.
Hunter Biden's trial shows the US criminal justice system is working
Republican lawmakers are attacking the US criminal justice system as “rigged” and “shameful” after former president Donald Trump’s criminal convictions, calling the case a blatant example of political persecution. But in a twist of legal happenstance, Hunter Biden’s criminal trial began in Delaware just days after the Trump verdict was announced.
Bharara pointed out how unlikely it would be, if Trump won the presidency and somehow Don Jr. was indicted and put on trial, that the former president would stand idly by and not comment on it or try to get involved somehow, which Bremmer agreed was “inconceivable.” Not only that, but the timing of Hunter’s trial isn’t good for Biden, who wants the messaging right now to be squarely on Trump’s legal woes.
“You couldn’t even make this up,” Glasser argues, “That literally, while the Democrats finally get a couple days where they’re focusing the lens squarely on Donald Trump and his fitness for office, then boom, two days later, Hunter Biden is on trial. The timing is a reminder that Biden can’t seem to catch a break.”
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week on US public television (check local listings) and online.
Do Donald Trump’s criminal convictions put American democracy at risk?
“Having crossed the Rubicon [of January 6],” Glasser says, “I think that the idea that we’re just treating this as a normal election between two warring tribes with different ideologies is really what history is going to remember about this moment, unfortunately.”
“We’ve grown accustomed to the luxury of repeated, peaceful transfers of power,” Bharara adds, “There’s nothing that guarantees that just because the US has been a great democracy, it will persist in being democratic.”
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week on US public television (check local listings) and online.
Will Trump's criminal conviction cost him votes?
Just days after former President Donald Trump’s historic felony conviction, Ian Bremmer sits down with the New Yorker’s Susan Glasser and former US Attorney Preet Bharara to discuss the impact of the verdict conviction on the 2024 election and democracy itself.
What does Donald Trump’s historic criminal conviction mean for the 2024 election and for democracy itself? As the first US president to be convicted of a crime, Trump’s 34 felony counts have stirred significant political and legal turmoil, with many in his party faithful choosing the former president over the justice system. "The GOP's revisionist history on the trial has already begun," Glasser tells Bremmer. Bharara also underscores the trial’s legitimacy, stating, "It was an open and fair proceeding. There was a judge who ruled often for the prosecution, but often as well for Donald Trump's side."Bharara addresses the allegations of political motivation behind the trial, telling Ian, "The accusations that some folks on the Trump side are making about how this was a politicized witch hunt, it was preordained, all of that" is a dangerous game. Bharara also highlights the gravity of the situation, saying, "There are people on the progressive side, on the Biden side who think that democracy is in danger. I'm one of those people." Glasser echoes this concern, reflecting on Trump's impact on elections, "What Trump tried to do in 2020 as well as 2016 was to nullify the votes of an election and therefore of the people, the masses' votes, not the individuals."
Both guests underscore the critical crossroads at which American democracy stands and the profound consequences of Trump's conviction for the upcoming election. Whether or not Trump wins in November is an open question. So, too, is the fate of our democratic institutions.
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week on US public television (check local listings) and online.
GOP's response to Trump verdict: An "ominous sign" for the future?
It’s far too early to say how former President Trump’s 34 felony convictions in the New York hush money case will affect the 2024 US presidential election, but make no mistake, the verdict has far-reaching implications for the future of the Republican party.
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer was joined by New Yorker columnist Susan Glasser and former US attorney Preet Bharara for a frank look at what Trump’s conviction means for the GOP moving forward. As historic as Trump’s conviction is, the political response may be even more unprecedented and could have dangerous implications not just for Republicans or capital “D” Democrats but for our already fragile, lower-case “d” democracy.
“This is a marker of the escalation that we’re seeing in 2024,” Glasser says, pointing to the GOP attacks on the US justice system, “I think it’s a sign of where the Republican party is at, that they’ve essentially mortgaged the party so completely to the fate of one individual, that they’re willing to tear down what remains of faith in our institutions.”