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Preventing conflicts before they start, with María Fernanda Espinosa
“It means building peace, having a very strong and well-equipped intellectually oversight machinery, to have a scenario-building machinery, to have early warning systems in place,” she tells GZERO Media’s Tony Maciulis on the sidelines of the Paris Peace Forum. Espinosa calls for a “refocus, not austerity,” to strengthen the UN’s early warning systems and invest in prevention. “One dollar in prevention saves a thousand in response,” she notes.
Turning to climate, she urges faster action ahead of COP30 in Brazil, warning that progress “is not matching the science.” Latin America, she says, must lead with resilience and unity despite political divides.
This conversation is part of GZERO Media’s Global Stage series, presented in partnership with Microsoft.
Ian Bremmer: “We’re Living in a Post-American Order”
At the 2025 GZERO Summit Japan in Tokyo, Ian Bremmer delivered his annual "State of the World" address, a stark assessment of our “post-American order.”
He warns that no power is willing or able to fill the global vacuum left behind, driving the world deeper into a G-Zero era: more conflict, more impunity, and more instability.
But his message isn’t just about governments, it’s about us: citizens, businesses, and communities who must build cooperation and trust where leadership has failed.
Watch this excerpt from his keynote to understand why Ian believes that the next global crisis will define the new world order, and how empathy and cooperation could still change our trajectory.
The unseen wounds of war
We’re living in a time of record-high conflict, a level of violence not seen since World War II. The past four years have been marred by deadly battles in Ukraine, Gaza, Sudan, Myanmar, and beyond, with approximately 14% of the planet’s population now impacted by war.
While the more than 120 million people displaced by conflict have acute needs of safety, shelter, food, and education, there are needs unseen that too frequently go untreated.
A mental health crisis
In an unprecedented assessment this summer, UNICEF reported that 100% of children in Gaza are in need of mental health and psychosocial support (MHPSS.) While the pending peace deal could put an end to the physical violence, the road to true wellness will be long and complicated for all those who have survived.
Globally, there are an estimated 66 million people in humanitarian crises living with mental health conditions. And of the less than 0.029% of global GDP that goes to humanitarian assistance, only 2% of that amount goes to mental health services.
If untreated, the impacts of this trauma can contribute to higher rates of depression and anxiety, learning loss and disrupted education, and even self harm. Suicide is the top cause of death globally for people ages 15-29.
A Greentree plan grows
Last November, United Nations Deputy Secretary-General Amina Mohammed urged a gathering of more than 50 mental health experts to focus on this issue.
“We need to put the head back on the body” in our approach to humanitarian aid, DSG Mohammed told us in her closing remarks. Treating the needs of the body is only one part of the equation—caring for the mind is a large part of keeping a person well.
Now, a year after that event, the United Nations has launched the Greentree Acceleration Plan, named for the venue where the retreat was convened. With $13.2 million in backing from the Wellcome Trust, the UN is embarking on two pilot programs, one in Chad where 40% of the population requires aid, and the other in Lebanon.
The goal is to find scalable solutions to bring better mental health care to more countries, communities, and conflict zones around the world.
A day for awareness
Today, on World Mental Health day, I wanted to share with you a conversation I recently had with actress Carey Mulligan and activist Jin Dawood on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, during an event where the Greentree Acceleration Plan was announced.
Mulligan is an ambassador for War Child, a UK-based charity that provides mental health care, education, and support to kids in conflict zones worldwide. Dawood, herself a former refugee and survivor of civil war in Syria, founded Peace Therapist to provide digital MHPSS services to children in Arabic, Kurdish, Turkish, and English.
Both shared personal stories of children in crisis they’ve met through their work, and the importance of raising awareness for mental health support long after a war has ended.
Over dozens of trips to troubled regions, Mulligan has seen first-hand the impact that MHPSS can have on a child’s life. “Part of that is giving children the right to a childhood,” she said. “But also, you cannot expect a country to rebuild itself if children are illiterate and traumatized.”
As Dawood explained, “That's why it's so important for people to be able to have therapy, to be able to rebuild themselves from inside and start the inner peace, and also contribute to building peace in the world.”
Watch my full conversation with Carey Mulligan and Jin Dawood above..
Citizens’ assemblies helped Ireland move from conflict to consensus
Citizens’ assemblies helped Northern Ireland transform a violent past into today’s deliberative politics.
Ambassador Fergal Mythen traces the arc from the New Ireland Forum (1983–84) through national roadshows and town halls to today’s independent citizens’ assemblies, processes that fed into parliament, broadened public understanding, and built “losers’ consent.”
Together, these forums helped reshape how Ireland confronted the Northern Ireland conflict, moving from the divisive politics of the 1970s–80s to a more consensus-driven approach today.
“Parliamentary politics alone couldn’t bring people together … Citizens’ assemblies and national dialogues helped us build awareness and understanding," said Mythen.
Excerpt from a Global Stage livestream at UN HQ on the International Day of Democracy.
Watch more of GZERO Media’s Global Stage series, sponsored by Microsoft, from the 80th Session of the United Nations General Assembly here: gzeromedia.com/globalstage.
The world is on fire and the UN is running out of money
Ian Bremmer sits down with UN Secretary-General António Guterres ahead of the 80th UN General Assembly to talk about war, diplomacy, and the existential pressure on global governance.
Guterres doesn’t mince words: “What’s happening today in Gaza is morally, politically, and legally intolerable.” With conflicts raging from Gaza to Ukraine to Sudan, and funding for life-saving aid programs evaporating, the Secretary-General says the international system is failing when it’s needed most.
In a wide-ranging conversation, Guterres addresses the West’s retreat from multilateralism, the need to reform outdated global institutions, and why mid-sized powers are increasingly driving conflict—often with total impunity. He also discusses the UN’s dramatic internal cost-cutting push (an initiative he dubbed “UN80”) and why, despite a 15% budget reduction, he believes the organization can still become more effective.
“We are more capable,” Guterres says. “When you make the system more slim and more unified, you gain in efficiency."
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations(check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube.Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔). GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
Israel strikes Iran: Could the US and Gulf States be pulled in?
Tensions in the Middle East escalate as Israel launches a surprise military strike against Iran, prompting international concern and speculation about broader conflict.
In his latest Quick Take, Ian Bremmer calls Israel’s strike on Iran “a huge success for the Israelis” and a significant blow to Iran’s regional influence. “A fair amount of Iran’s top military leadership has been decapitated by Israel,” he notes. While the US did not take part directly, Ian says President Donald Trump “gave at very least, a blinking yellow light, if not a direct green.” He warns of three high-risk responses Iran may pursue: a push for nuclear weapons, disruption of oil shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, or a harsh domestic crackdown. All are high-risk and carry the potential to draw the US and Gulf states into deeper conflict.
Ukrainian service members of the 43rd Hetman Taras Triasylo Separate Artillery Brigade fire towards Russian troops in a Panzerhaubitze 2000 self-propelled howitzer, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, at a position in Donetsk region, Ukraine October 26, 2024.
Ukrainians and North Koreans clash in Russia. Could NATO get involved?
Ukrainian officials said Monday their troops had fired upon North Koreans in the Kursk region, which Ukraine has partially occupied, in the first known contact between the two sides. Thus far, the action has been confined to Russian territory, where North Korea can point to its mutual defense pact with Russia for some legal cover (not that Pyongyang has admitted it deployed a single soldier yet), but what happens if the Korean People’s Army pushes into Ukraine proper?
It’s a possibility the US is eager to head off, according to Eurasia Group and GZERO President Ian Bremmer. “The United States sees North Korean combat troops entering Ukraine (as opposed to Kursk, on Russian territory) as a major escalation in the war — and has warned Russia that such a decision would risk NATO troops being sent into Ukraine,” Bremmer said after discussions with senior Biden administration officials. The National Security Administration and NATO did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
There are reasons for skepticism: Ukraine is not a NATO member and has expressed great frustration with its allies over how fear of escalation in Western capitals has clipped its military’s wings and resulted in preventable civilian and military deaths. How seriously Russian President Vladimir Putin takes it all depends heavily on the results of the US election tomorrow, as a second Trump administration would be much friendlier to Russian interests.
But Eurasia Group analyst Jeremy Chan says Moscow ought to be well aware of the risks. “As soon as North Korean troops cross into sovereign Ukrainian territory, it would make resolving the conflict far more complicated,” he says. “It would also engender a dramatic response from the West, and you could even see the Chinese come off their preferred position right on top of the fence because this would not be in Beijing's interests and would be a pretty flagrant violation of China’s five principles of peaceful coexistence.”
Graphic Truth: Biggest contributors to UN peacekeeping
UN Peacekeeping is all about helping countries navigate the often rocky transition out of violent conflict, with the hope of laying the groundwork for a lasting peace. For over 70 years, peacekeepers have been deployed around the world to help maintain security, protect civilians and human rights, and oversee peace processes. There are currently 11 active peacekeeping missions around the world.
Canada played a central role in the early development of UN Peacekeeping. In 1957, Canadian Secretary of State for External Affairs Lester B. Pearson was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for his vital role in establishing a UN Emergency Force that helped resolve the Suez Crisis of 1956 in Egypt.
UN Peacekeeping is financed by UN member states — and has a budget of roughly $6.4 billion — with countries like the US, China, and Japan among the top financial contributors. Meanwhile, the biggest contributors of personnel to UN Peacekeeping are Bangladesh, Nepal, and India. Do you think UN Peacekeeping is worth all that goes into it? We’d love to hear from you!