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Israel's Iron Dome anti-missile system intercepts rockets launched from Lebanon towards Israel over the Israeli Lebanese border, as seen from northern Israel, April 12, 2024.
Iran strikes Israel. How will Netanyahu respond?
On Saturday, Iran launched roughly 300 drones and missiles at Israel in retaliation for Israel’s April 1 bombing of the Iranian consulate in Syria. Some 99% of Iranian projectiles were destroyed by a combination of Israel’s Iron Dome defense system, US firepower, and assistance from Britain, Germany, and reportedly Jordan and Saudi Arabia. Israel suffered minimal damage and no casualties.
The question now is what comes next, for the region, the Israel-Hamas war, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and the world’s great powers?
The region
The slow-motion nature of the attack, which gave Israel and its allies hours to prepare, led some analysts to call itmore symbolic than serious. However, it allowed Iran to gauge Israel’s capabilities, see who would come to the Jewish state’s aid, and learn how other regional powers and groups would respond to an Iranian barrage.
Both Jordan and Saudi Arabia came to Israel’s defense, according to Israeli military intelligence. The two monarchies both have close ties to the US, Jordan shares a border with Israel, and there is no love lost between Iran’s Shi’a fundamentalist government and the Saudi Sunni monarchy and religious authorities.
But according toMasoud Mostajabi, deputy director of the Middle East Programs at the Atlantic Council, “… if tonight's attacks escalate into a wider Israel-Iran conflict, regional actors perceived as defenders of Israel may find themselves targeted and dragged into the regional conflagration.”
What might Israel do?
US President Joe Biden wants Bibi to “take the win” and not retaliate, but Israel could use the attack as a reason to bomb Iran’s nuclear program or other Iranian military installations.
Netanyahu’s cabinet is divided. Hardliners are calling for a tough response, with National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir saying Israel should “go crazy.” Netanyahu rival Benny Gantzsaid Israel will “exact a price from Iran in a way and time that suits us.” And Defense Minister Yoav Gallant says Israel has the opportunityto form a strategic alliance with nations, including the United States and Germany.
According to Hebrew-language media reports, the security cabinet has authorized the war cabinet – whose only voting members are Gantz, Netanyahu, and Gallant – to ultimately make the decision. A possible clue to that response came Sunday as Gantz declared that Israel must strengthen the “strategic alliance and the regional cooperation” that allowed it to overcome Iran’s attack.
“Israel is currently weighing options. Strikes on Iran directly are possible, but it appears that the war cabinet is divided over how to respond,” says Eurasia Group analyst Greg Brew. “Bombing Iran in response to Saturday's attack would likely escalate the confrontation and compel Iran to attack again – this time with less warning and stage-managing.”
The Israel-Hamas War and Bibi’s future
Iran has warned that attacks by its allies won’t stop until the war in Gaza ends – but that ending is still nowhere in sight. On Sunday,Hamas rejected the latest proposal for a deal presented a week ago by mediators Qatar, Egypt, and the United States.
According to Eurasia Group and GZERO Media President Ian Bremmer, the Iranian attack is “going to be a big distraction away from the war in Gaza. [This] doesn't mean that Israel suddenly loses its isolation or wins the PR war globally,” he says, “And there's also less pressure for Netanyahu to be forced out domestically in the near future.”
Great powers unite
The US made it clear that it wants no further escalation. Bidenalso told Netanyahu that the US would not participate in any offensive operations against Iran.
The G7 issueda statement affirming their support for Israel and condemning Iran, saying that an uncontrollable regional escalation “must be avoided.” They demanded that Iran and its proxies cease their attacks and “stand ready to take further measures now and in response to further destabilizing initiatives.”
Iransaid a “new equation” in its adversarial relationship with Israel had been opened, and warned of a “much bigger” assault on the country should Netanyahu retaliate to Saturday’s assault.
WhileBremmer does not see this leading to World War III, he says the “potential that this war expands and eventually does drag in the United States and Iran more directly is also going up. ”Nigeriens gather in a street to protest against the U.S. military presence, in Niamey, Niger April 13, 2024.
Niger Pivots from the Eagle to the Bear
Hundreds demonstrated in Niger's capital, Niamey, on Saturday to demand the removal of US troops, much as they called for the exit of French forces last year. Niger’s military coup in July 2023 has brought changes to the central African nation, including a shift in military alliances. The nation is deepening its relationship with Moscow, as evidenced bythe arrival last week of Russian military trainers tasked with bolstering Niger’s air defenses.
The junta has not yet expelled US forces after ordering them to leave last month. Until last year, the US had been a key ally in combating Islamic terrorists in the Sahel region, funding a $100 million drone base and training elite Nigerien counterterrorist units. But with Russia in the picture now, that cooperation looks moribund.
Unfortunately, some of those US-trained forcesparticipated in last summer's coup that deposed elected President Salem Bazoum. Things deteriorated further last month aftera US delegation visit led by envoy Molly Phee, when Niger's junta announced on state TV that flights from the American-built airbase were illegal and declared the US military presence as “unrecognized.”
Niger’s regime follows the pattern set by neighboring Mali and Burkina Faso, which have also distanced themselves from traditional Western allies, cultivated ties with Moscow, and shunned the ECOWAS bloc. We’ll be watching to see whether Niger’s new alliance with Russia emboldens the juntato further delay a return to civilian rule, which is supposed to happen by 2026.Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., U.S. President Joe Biden and Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida are pictured ahead of their trilateral summit at the White House in Washington on April 11, 2024.
Manila gets a big boost, but does it matter to Beijing?
Washington and Tokyo promised Manila they would help secure its seas and upgrade its infrastructure at their trilateral summit in Washington on Thursday — all big gestures, but what do they look like from Beijing?
Political winds have shifted against China in the Philippines since President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. came to power in June 2022. His predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte, allegedly sealed a secret deal with China that is now at the center of a dangerous conflict in the South China Sea.
Duterte allegedly agreed not to send reconstruction supplies to a beached ship that Manila uses to control the disputed South Thomas Shoal. Marcos said Wednesday he was “horrified” by any deal that tells Manila what it can do on its own territory, but his attempts to resupply the hulk in March were intercepted by Chinese ships, resulting in injuries. If an incident like this turns deadly, it could spark a war that brings in America and Japan, hence the show of unity in Washington.
Beijing also sees the South Thomas Shoal as a sovereignty issue, and nothing Joe Biden or Fumio Kishida promised today is likely to change China’s tune. China’s Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning on Thursday reiterated warnings against violating Beijing’s claims in the South China Sea.
FILE PHOTO - A Philippine flag flutters from BRP Sierra Madre, a dilapidated Philippine Navy ship that has been aground since 1999 and became a Philippine military detachment on the disputed Second Thomas Shoal, part of the Spratly Islands, in the South China Sea March 29, 2014.
Can the US and Philippines get Beijing to back off?
On Monday, 3,500 US and Filipino troops began what could become their largest-ever annual training exercises on the Philippine island of Luzon. This came a day after major multilateral naval drills in the South China Sea and just ahead of a trilateral US-Philippines-Japan summit in Washington on Thursday.
The message to China? Take the US-Philippines alliance seriously.
How we got here: China’s beef with the Philippines is over control of the South China Sea, which Beijing sees as its territory. Manila deliberately beached a ship on the disputed Second Thomas Shoal in 1999 and has based a small contingent of Marines in the hulk ever since.
But that shell is falling apart, and when Manila tried to send reconstruction supplies last month, Chinese Coast Guard ships blasted the supply vessel with water cannons, immobilizing it and injuring several aboard.
“China is going up to 9 out of 10 of what it can do short of an armed attack on a public vessel, which would likely trigger the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty obligations,” says Jeremy Chan, a senior analyst at the Eurasia Group.
Could it lead to war? Washington hopes displays of allied strength and unity will keep Beijing from crossing the line, but Beijing is equally determined to assert what it sees as sovereign rights.
“This is one of China’s absolute red lines,” says Chan. “The South China Sea is one of their core interests and part of party doctrine, just like Taiwan.”
Thursday’s trilateral will focus on joint efforts to deter China and will likely include announcements of upgraded US-Japan security ties.FILE PHOTO: Chinese President Xi Jinping waves as he walks with U.S. President Joe Biden at Filoli estate on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, in Woodside, California, U.S., November 15, 2023.
Biden and Xi catch up
US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke for nearly two hours on Tuesday, in a wide-ranging conversation meant, as one senior official put it, to serve as a “check-in.” Both men agreed to periodic phone calls when they met last year in San Francisco in a bid to boost dialogue and stabilize relations.
So far, Washington and Beijing have avoided any major flare-up, but Biden and Xi had no shortage of risks and gripes to discuss. Biden emphasized his commitment to the status quo over Taiwan and urged Xi to respect freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, where Chinese and Filipino vessels have had tense confrontations recently. He also expressed concern about China’s support for Russia’s military-industrial base. Xi, meanwhile, criticized “endless” US sanctions on the tech sector in an attempt to restrict Chinese access to militarily sensitive gear.
It wasn’t all complaints. The two leaders discussed recent progress on military-to-military communications, fentanyl trafficking, climate policy, and artificial intelligence, among other items. Cooperation on those less sensitive issues helps ease pressure on more intractable ones.
What’s next? The call comes just ahead of US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s expected visit to China. Given Xi’s complaints today, she might be in for a less-than-relaxing trip, as she’s expected to press Beijing harder on “unfair” trade practices.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will also travel to China in the coming weeks. And we have our eye on the inauguration of Taiwanese President William Lai next month, when a vigorous Chinese display of strength could test relations with Washington, which would face pressure to back up Taipei.British and American flags she takes part in a 'Here's to Meghan!' celebration ahead of her marriage to Prince Harry, as they celebrate at Immaculate Heart High School in Los Angeles, California, U.S., May 15, 2018.
The US, UK forge truce on AI
The US and UK have struck the world's first bilateral agreement on AI safety, agreeing to cooperate on testing and risk-assessing artificial intelligence.
Both countries will conduct their safety testing through new government bodies planned during last year's summit at Bletchley Park in the UK – which each country is calling the Artificial Intelligence Safety Institute. While the countries lag behind peers in the European Union on passing comprehensive legislation to govern the use of AI, they've introduced a series of lighter-touch measures to get the ball rolling
FILE PHOTO: September 17, 2023, by the North Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), the chairman of the North Korean State Affairs Committee is shown , Kim Jong-un, and his delegation, after their arrival in Vladivostok, in the middle of a tour of the Russian Far East, after holding a summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
East Asia’s rising tensions
Russia started supplying oil to North Korea this month in violation of UN sanctions on Pyongyang, according to a new report from a UK think tank and theFinancial Times. Satellite images have shown a number of North Korean tankers traveling to the Russian eastern port city of Vostochny in March.
In 2017, the UN Security Council voted, with Russian support, to sanction the DPRK following a series of nuclear weapons tests. Last August, North Korea began sending large quantities of munitions to Russia to support its invasion of Ukraine.
This is just the latest evidence of new security tensions in East Asia. Earlier this week, we noted the US and Japan will announce a major upgrade in their military relations next month. In response, Kim Yo Jong, the sister of North Korean leader Ki Jong Un, has rebuffed Japan’s call for a high-level bilateral meeting after initially indicating Pyongyang was open to it. “The DPRK side will pay no attention to and reject any contact and negotiations with the Japanese side,” she told North Korean state media.
Japan’s government is also becoming more militarily assertive. Tokyo pledged to double its defense spending by 2027 in response to perceived threats from China and North Korea, and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s cabinet announced this week that Japan will sell new fighter jets it’s developing with the UK and Italy to countries not directly involved in an ongoing conflict with which it has signed defense pacts.
Kishida will make a highly anticipated trip to Washington next month, and we’ll be watching to see how China, Russia, and North Korea react.
Graphic Truth: Which country ❤️s TikTok most?
TikTok has taken the world by storm over the past few years, growing its global audience to a whopping 900 million users and counting. You can find a wide array of video content on the app, ranging from people cooking, dancing, and pontificating to breaking news and political drama. It can be quite addictive.
Meanwhile, politicians in Washington continue to raise the alarm about the potential national security risks of the app, which is owned by the China-based company ByteDance. The US House of Representatives recently voted to ban TikTok if its Chinese owner doesn’t sell it, and we’re waiting to see whether the Senate votes on the measure. But many American users seem unfazed by the political discourse as the US boasts the most users – nearly 150 million – of any country in the world.
Should people be more concerned about the Chinese government spying on them through TikTok?