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John Ivison
President Joe Biden speaks at a Holocaust remembrance ceremony at the US Capitol on May 7, 2024.
President Joe Biden has what appears to be a political mission impossible: finding a thread that unites the pearls of Democrat support over the war in Gaza.
The Israeli military has started pushing into Rafah, despite US warnings against ground operations. That will exacerbate political strains at home for Biden as he tries to hold together his coalition of forceful progressives, who are critical of Israel, and steadfast moderates, who support the Jewish state.
Eurasia Group US Director Clayton Allen said the decision to delay delivery of some offensive weapons, specifically systems that would be utilized in an expanded offensive in Rafah, while at the same time leaning into his public statements of support for Israel, reinforced the untenable nature of the U.S. position.
“Trying to leverage Netanyahu into moderating his military plans, while publicly embracing him, is challenging at the best of times,” he said.
These are not the best of times.
Biden’s claim that his commitment to Israel is “ironclad” has pitted the White House
against the progressive wing of the party. That commitment has sounded less and less rigid as the death toll in Gaza has risen. A Gallup poll in March suggested 75% of Democrats disapprove of the Israeli military action in Gaza. Biden has become critical of Israeli mistakes but without tangible consequences.
In fact, a CNN interview on Wednesday showed Biden acknowledging that US weapons shipments had been used to kill civilians in Gaza, and the president explained that he would stop some shipments moving forward.
Still, Allen thinks overall aid is unlikely to be meaningfully curtailed, despite this week’s decision to delay the delivery of some systems. “Biden's strategy is to hope for a deal that doesn’t force him to follow through on the threats he’s making to make it happen,” he said.
Biden had hoped the threats would be enough to force an Israeli rethink on Rafah, but that has not happened. Still, “Biden doesn't want to follow through on it: He’s getting hammered by the GOP, most US voters support Israel, and long-term US-Israeli alignment is a key part of US strategy,” Allen added.
But if the “counter-terrorism” operation in Rafah turns into a fully-fledged assault, the pressure to act could become irresistible. When three-quarters of your supporters don’t back your position on a pivotal issue, it tends to sap party unity. Biden can ill afford that kind of rift as November’s election creeps ever closer.
A US-Canada border crossing and monument.
Former Republican nominee hopeful Vivek Ramaswamy was mocked for his proposal during one GOP debate to build border walls with Mexico and Canada.
The problems at the southern border are well-documented. In January, US Border Patrol reported 124,200 encounters with migrants trying to enter the country illegally – and that is a 50% drop from previous months. It is an issue that may cost Joe Biden the election: A Pew Research poll suggested 80% of those surveyed think he is doing a bad job at handling the migrant influx.
Less well-known is that northern border states like Vermont, New York, and New Hampshire are reporting their highest rates of illegal migration in years. Canada is seen as a stepping stone to the US by human smuggling organizations – and it has the added benefit of no border walls or razor wire.
In 2023, roughly 7,000 migrants were arrested for illegally entering the US from Ontario, Quebec, and New Brunswick – a number higher than the last 12 years combined.
Chief Patrol Agent Robert Garcia, who patrols the Swanton sector, the 295-mile section of rough border terrain that separates New York, Vermont, and New Hampshire from Canada, tweeted that between April 28 and May 4 there were 492 apprehensions – the same as the whole of 2021.
Erik Lavallee, a US Border Patrol Agent, told CBS News that multiple organizations are using Canada to smuggle individuals to the U.S. Those arrested come from 66 different countries, including India, Haiti, Venezuela, and Mexico.
While less dangerous than the southern crossing – Biden is expected to tighten access to asylum there with new regulations as soon as today – the northern border is not without its perils. Ten migrants died from drowning and hypothermia coming through the Swanton sector.
Lawmakers seem to have been caught flat-footed by the explosion in numbers.
When Biden visited Ottawa in spring 2023, he signed a deal with Justin Trudeau to update the Safe Third Country Agreement that allowed either country to turn back asylum-seekers at unofficial border crossings, on the basis that Canada and the US are “safe” countries for refugees and they should apply where they land. However, this was designed to close a loophole that saw 40,000 migrants a year cross from the States into Canada at the infamous and unofficial Roxham Road crossing in Quebec and hand themselves over to the first border agent.
Policymakers do not yet appear to have woken up to this latest surge of illegal migrants heading in the other direction.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi addresses a public meeting, in Khargone, on Tuesday.
Without admitting that he sent agents to North America to kill his enemies, Narendra Modi has dropped heavy hints that his government did just that.
Amid his reelection campaign – voting is ongoing through June 1 – the Indian prime minister recently made comments in Hindi about his country’s ability to silence those abroad who challenge his country’s integrity.
“This is the new India. This New India comes into your home to kill you,” he said, according to a report in the Washington Post.
India is not in an apologetic mood, even after it was reported that officers in Indian foreign intelligence were linked to the assassination of Canadian citizen, Hardeep Singh Nijjar, and a plot to kill his New York-based associate, Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, which was foiled by US law enforcement.
The Biden administration, conscious of India’s indispensability as a counterweight to China, reportedly said it would refrain from a punitive response if India held those responsible to account. The approach was viewed as too accommodating by some US officials.
By contrast, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s response was to announce in the House of Commons that Canada had credible allegations of Indian involvement in Nijjar’s murder. Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly said this week that her government stands by the allegation that a Canadian was killed in Canada by Indian agents. The Royal Canadian Mounted Police last week arrested three Indian nationals for Nijjar’s murder and said it is still investigating whether the Indian government was involved.
Trudeau’s claim has put Canada in India’s crosshairs again. Its foreign minister, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, accused Canada of welcoming criminals into the country (Nijjar, who advocated the creation of a Sikh homeland called Khalistan, was subject to an arrest warrant in India but was not extradited because Canada said there was a lack of credible evidence).
Sikh separatism is “not so much a problem in the US; our biggest problem right now is Canada,” Jaishankar told an audience at an event in the eastern city of Bhubaneswar last weekend.
The Liberal government “has given these … advocates of violence a certain legitimacy, in the name of free speech,” he said.
Modi has made clear – and Biden has apparently accepted – that turning a blind eye to the practice of extrajudicial killing is the price of doing business with the new India.
Warren Buffett recently made positive comments about investing in Canada.
Comedian Jim Gaffigan recalls seeing the ubiquitous Canadian Tim Hortons coffee and donuts shops in America. “I always have the same thought: ‘Don’t force your culture on us’,” he quipped.
The joke gets a big laugh with Canadian audiences, wary about American influence seeping into their country. Lately, though, a bigger concern is that Canada is in danger of being ignored, particularly by US investors.
That is why comments made by Warren Buffett last weekend were welcomed so enthusiastically by Justin Trudeau’s unpopular Liberal government.
At the annual meeting of Berkshire Hathaway, the Oracle of Omaha said he was looking at new investments in Canada, adding that he has no hesitation about “putting big money” in the country.
“We do not feel uncomfortable in any way, shape or form, putting our money into Canada,” Buffett said, “... it’s terrific when you’ve got a major economy – not the size of the US, but a major economy that you absolutely, you feel confident about operating there.”
Greg Abel, CEO of Berkshire Hathaway Energy and vice-chair of the company’s non-insurance operations, is a Canadian and widely viewed as Buffett’s successor. He said the company is always looking to make incremental investments in Canada “because it’s an environment we’re very comfortable with.”
François-Philippe Champagne, Trudeau's industry minister, tweeted Buffett’s statement, calling it a “vote of confidence” – and the Liberals sure could use that.
Critics have accused Trudeau of lax fiscal and tight environmental policies, and of presiding over “the slow bleeding of Canada.” The worry is that jobs, capital, and head office functions have leaked south of the border for lower corporate and personal tax rates.
In recent years, investors have complained that Trudeau is more interested in taxing than generating wealth – that he’s a leader who believes the private sector is a golden goose that cannot be killed.
The chorus of criticism reached a crescendo in the aftermath of last month’s federal budget that increased spending and raised the capital gains tax on corporations and the wealthy.
David Dodge, a highly respected former Bank of Canada governor, said the tax rise would make Canada a less attractive place to invest, particularly for start-ups that rely on paying people in shares.
Another former Bank governor, Mark Carney (also an ex-Bank of England governor), said the budget did not focus enough on economic growth. “Governments that spend too much and invest too little will eventually pay a heavy price. The countries that nurture, welcome, and celebrate risk-takers will thrive,” said Carney, widely viewed as a potential and more centrist successor to the left-of-center Trudeau.
The prime minister reinforced his social activist credentials, telling VOX that when everything is going well “the wealthy will find lots of ways to make money off a prosperous and successful middle class.”
“I’m not worried about innovation and creativity. I’m worried about people being able to pay their rent and eventually buy a home,” Trudeau said.
Americans often don’t pay much attention to Canada. But if there is an impression after Trudeau’s eight and half years in charge, it is probably that the Great White North has veered toward quasi-socialism – or that its citizenry is even more reliant than ever on welfare.
That might be a bigger disincentive to investment were the Biden administration not even more addicted to taxing and spending. Canada has a slightly higher corporate tax rate at 26.21%, compared to America’s 25.77%, but President Joe Biden’s State of the Union address proposed to raise the US level to 28% and to increase the top individual income and capital gains tax rates. The Trudeau government has been criticized for a budgetary deficit that is 1.4% of GDP – small potatoes compared to the US’s 6.3% shortfall.
So, despite criticisms and the perception that it is antagonistic toward business, the Canadian government has been remarkably successful at luring inward investment in recent years. Foreign direct investment is at healthy levels, and Canada has established itself as a key player in the global electric vehicle end-to-end battery supply chain, announcing multi-billion-dollar manufacturing and assembly plants by Honda, Stellantis/LG, and Volkswagen, among others, in recent months.
Thanks to Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, the effort has cost Canada dearly in terms of subsidies – the terms of the Stellantis and Volkswagen deals stipulated that Ottawa match incentives offered to battery makers in the US under the IRA.
Canada’s Parliamentary Budget Office has estimated that the federal government will take 20 years to break even.
But as Tyler Meredith, a former economic adviser to Trudeau, said, Canada’s auto industry is “an amazing story of industrial renaissance.”
During the financial crisis of 2009, it looked like Canada’s auto sector might go the way of Australia and lose domestic production altogether. It has not only maintained production, but it is building the next generation of electric vehicles. “It is super attractive because it has the natural resources, talent, and subsidies,” Meredith said.
The area that even the government’s strongest supporters like Meredith concede there is work to do is the decline in the capital investment base in the resource sector. In 2014, the year before Trudeau became prime minister, it was around $73 billion; today it is around half of that.
The collapse of commodity prices is largely responsible, but the price crash was
compounded by the new government introducing a more rigorous environmental assessment process that increased political risk and lengthened timelines for project reviews. Since then, the oil and gas sector has seen a 43% drop in investment value (in 2015 dollars). Critics contend that a Liberal government hostile to fossil fuels put hurdles in the way of future development and hoped the US shale revolution would price Canada out of the oil market.
But it is not only the oil and gas sector that has seen investment dip. The clean tech industry has also seen a 27% drop since 2017, and even the critical minerals sector, on which so many of the government’s EV hopes are resting, has atrophied, with nickel, cobalt, lithium, uranium, zinc, lead, and platinum all recording double-digit declines, according to a new report by the Macdonald Laurier Institute think-tank.
Contrary to the claims of the opposition Conservative leader, Pierre Poilievre, Canada is not “broken.” It continues to rank highly (though not as highly as it used to) in the World Competitive Index in the 15th spot. It has a well-educated workforce, modern infrastructure, an abundance of energy, and a strong banking sector – and it is relatively easy to start a business.
Meredith says that while people associate Trudeau with poverty and emissions reduction, “he also has an enviable economic investment record” – including the newly completed Trans Mountain pipeline expansion, EV plants, and AI clusters in Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver. “All those things happened because of intentional government decisions and will serve Canada well over the long term,” he said.
But if the business environment is not as bad as the opposition claims, neither is it an investment Babylon.
Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland admitted as much when she hired another former Bank of Canada governor, Stephen Poloz, to figure out ways to convince Canada’s pension funds to invest more locally, rather than transferring four-fifths of their wealth overseas.
But, as David Dodge pointed out, the job of a pension fund is to raise money to pay pensioners so they invest where they get the highest returns. They are making long-term bets in places privatizing airports and ports, and building toll roads, which suggests that Canada is not as attractive as an investment destination as the government, or even Warren Buffett, thinks.
Nashville Predators defenseman Ryan McDonagh (27) stick checks Vancouver Canucks forward Brock Boeser (6) during the third period in game two of the first round of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Rogers Arena.
For the past 31 years of hockey folly, Canadian fans have greeted the NHL playoffs by telling anyone who will listen that “this year is different.”
It was 1993 when the Stanley Cup was last brought north of the border – that time by the Montreal Canadiens. But there are genuine grounds for optimism this year, with four Canadian teams competing in the last 16 for the first time in seven years.
The Toronto Maple Leafs haven’t won the Cup since 1967 and are already behind 2-1 in their best-of-seven series with the Boston Bruins at the time of writing.
The Winnipeg Jets are tied with the Colorado Avalanche, but hopes are high at the Whiteout street party, where fans gather wearing white Jets jerseys in downtown Winnipeg, after their team finished the season with eight straight wins.
Vancouver Canucks are tied with the Nashville Predators, but the Canadian fans are quietly confident after winning their division.
Meanwhile, the Edmonton Oilers are tied in their series against the LA Kings after game one, in which the world’s best player, Connor McDavid, proved unstoppable, providing five assists in a 7-4 win. The bookmakers have the Oilers as the third favorite, behind the Carolina Hurricanes and Florida Panthers, both of whom are 2-0 up in their series against the New York Islanders and Tampa Bay Lightning respectively.
Despite the prospect of making history, there is no sense that the country is getting behind any one franchise as “Canada’s team.” This is for good reason: If Vancouver and Edmonton triumph, they will face off against each other in round two.
Tribal loyalties run deeper than national ones in a country like Canada, with more geography than history.
Workers assemble a vehicle as Honda announces plans to build electric vehicles and their parts in Ontario with financial support from the Canadian and provincial governments, at their automotive assembly plant in Alliston, Ontario, Canada, April 25, 2024.
Honda has announced an $11 billion plan to build electric vehicles in the Canadian province of Ontario, an investment Premier Doug Fordsays will be the largest ever for Canada.
The plan includes four separate plant as part of an electric vehicle supply chain, including Honda’s first EV assembly line at its existing Alliston, Ont., facility. The new investment will create 1,000 full-time jobs and produce 240,000 vehicles a year if all goes well.
That follows similar pledges by battery producers Northvolt, Volkswagen, and Stellantis-LGES that take Ontario’s EV investment to more than $30 billion in the past year or so.
Federal and provincial governments have injected billions in subsidies to compete with President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act. But the recent cooling of enthusiasm for EVs in North America has some wondering if Canada has bought a very expensive lemon.
Deliveries in the US are flat, and in Europe, they have fallen 11% year on year. Tesla has just reported poor quarterly results and has seen its stock fall in recent months.
Others are calling for calm. “Honda does not make speculative term bets,” said Flavio Volpe, head of Canada’s Automotive Parts Manufacturers’ Association.
Bullish analysts point out that the market witnessed a post-pandemic spending spree that will come back, particularly if manufacturers close the 40-60% price gap between gas-powered cars and EVs.
In China, electric vehicles are now cheaper options on average, and producing for the mass market is the game plan for companies like GM and Honda.
If the price differential drops, the car makers are betting “the feel of the wheel will seal the deal.”
A protester chants slogans in support of Palestinians in Gaza, outside of Columbia University in New York City, U.S., April 24, 2024.
The disruption at some of America’s most prestigious universities in recent days has been well-documented. Protesters have been arrested at New York University, Yale, and Columbia, where the administration has declared a hybrid (in-class and online) approach to the final week of classes.
Police have attempted to draw a line between free expression and maintaining safety on campuses. Jewish students claim that the intimidating chants and antisemitic incidents have crossed that line at times. Protesters at Columbia called for Hamas to blow away Tel Aviv and Israel, 19-year-old Nicholas Baumtold the Associated Press. “Jews are scared at Columbia. It’s as simple as that,” he said.
As usual, Canada has been a non-conductor of such radical currents.
Protests have occurred — there was a large anti-Israel rally on Parliament Hill in Ottawa last weekend at which chants of “Long live October 7th” were heard.
But it was not specifically a student protest and Canadian campuses have not seen the formation of encampments, such as the one that has taken over Columbia’s green.
McGill University in Montreal has witnessed a hunger strike by some students protesting the university’s investment in companies supporting the Israeli military. There was a brief sit-in at the main library.
But the tradition of radical student protest seems less ingrained in Canada.
Henry David Thoreau talked of disobedience being the true fountain of American liberty — sentiments that students took to heart during the civil rights and anti-Vietnam marches of the late 1960s and early 1970s.
Canadian student protests are preoccupied with less holistic concerns — in the ‘70s in Toronto, they were concerned about equal representation on the university senate; in Quebec in 2012, students reacted against increased tuition fees.
It is a circumstance that vindicates the observation that while Canada is a live country, unlike the US, it is not kicking.
TikTok logo displayed on a phone screen is seen through the broken glass with American flag displayed on a screen in the background in this illustration photo taken in Krakow, Poland on April 24, 2024.
We appear to be at a curious “hinge moment” in history where great powers are engaged in intense rivalries but at the same time are finding ways to cooperate.
Congress and President Joe Biden have just told China to sell TikTok, the social video-sharing app, or it will be banned in the US. It has also just voted to send $8 billion in military aid to Taiwan, a move the Chinese have described as a “dangerous provocation.”
At the same time, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in China attempting to thaw relations. He follows on the heels of Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and recent calls between US and Chinese defense chiefs to discuss their differences.
Similar dual-track diplomacy is happening in other Western countries. Germany is “derisking” its relations with China, yet Chancellor Olaf Scholz visited Beijing earlier this month. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese undertook a state visit to China in November, the first since 2016.
Canada’s government ordered a national security review of TikTok last September and has already banned the app on government devices. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Canada is watching the debate in the US, and observers have little doubt that Canada will follow Washington’s lead, if the app is banned – just as it did when it blocked Huawei from its 5G network in 2022.
Sino-Canadian relations are likely to get cooler before they warm up. Interim findings of a Canadian public inquiry into foreign interference in the 2019 and 2021 elections by China will be released later this spring – details that are unlikely to lead to calls for rapprochement.
At the same time, Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly is sending her senior diplomat, David Morrison, to China as a prelude to an official visit.
The general sense is that we all have to coexist in the same neighborhood, albeit, in the words of US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, “in small yards with high fences.”