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Ukrainian service members attend a military exercises during drills at a training ground, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Chernihiv region, Ukraine, November 22, 2024.
Russia and Ukraine trade larger and larger blows
Russia has conducted as many as 1,500 strikes on targets in Ukraine in the past two days, according to Kyiv. Ukraine, meanwhile, reportedly launched a fresh volley of US-made long-range ATACMS missiles at Russia, while claiming also to have struck a Russian oil depot with drones.
The ATACMS strike was reportedly on an air base in the Russian border region of Kursk, parts of which have been occupied by Ukrainian troops since August. Since then, Moscow has invited North Korean troops to help it push back the Ukrainians.
Putin, whose forces have been slowly gaining ground in eastern Ukraine for months, had warned that ATACMS strikes would be a significant escalation of the conflict. Last week, in response to their use, he loosened Russia’s nuclear use doctrine and fired into Ukraine a new advanced missile capable of carrying nuclear payloads.
All of this comes as Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House. Trump has questioned American support for Ukraine and pledged to end the conflict within “24 hours.” No one is sure what that will entail, but both sides are now in a last-minute frenzy to gain as much territory – and deterrent capacity – as they can before Trump takes office.
North Korean soldiers conduct military training at a drill field of the 534 military unit as the Supreme Commander of the North Korean People's Army (not pictured) visits to the unit at an undisclosed location in North Korea, in this undated picture released by KCNA November 5, 2008.
Ukraine urges allies to lift arms restrictions as North Korean threat grows
North Korean state media indicated that Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui was in Moscow on Tuesday, the same day that the Pentagon more than tripled its estimate of the number of North Korean soldiers currently training in Russia to 10,000. The purpose of Choe’s visit was not publicized, but setting up a visit to Russia by Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un in the coming weeks is highly likely, according to Eurasia Group expert Jeremy Chan.
Chan also pointed out that Pyongyang is reportedly sending troops that report directly to Kim. “These are the equivalent of special forces — basically the best soldiers that Kim keeps in his inner circle. They're the best trained, the best fed, the best equipped, and they're like infantry too,” says Chan. “The fact that Kim has tapped these guys to go to Ukraine indicates that they are not cannon fodder, despite what you're hearing.”
What will Ukraine’s allies do? Not enough, according to Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha, who urged allies to lift restrictions on Western arms and allow strikes deep into Russia. The US Department of Defense did not grant his wish but said it would not impose additional restrictions due to the presence of North Koreans — small comfort for the troops girding up to fight them.
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol said he “won’t sit idle” as North Korea aids in the invasion of Ukraine and raised the possibility of arming Kyiv directly. South Korea has a long-standing policy against arming countries amid conflict, but Yoon — who is not seeking reelection — said Pyongyang’s provocations could force him to “review our stance more flexibly.” For now, Yoon is focused on expanding deals with Poland that allow Warsaw to then send materiel to Ukraine.
What is North Korea getting? Beyond the Kim visit, help with tech like spy satellites and nuclear submarines is another possible perk. We’re watching for signs of another launch (they tried and failed in May) and details of a state trip.
Ukraine pushes to stay top of mind at Davos 2024
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics from the World Economic Forum meeting in Davos, Switzerland.
What are the big geopolitical issues here in Davos?
Well, it's still a lot of Ukraine. As a matter of fact, we had President Zelensky here. There's a large contingent also, even fighters from the front, sharing their experience. But then of course, a deep, deep concern with what's happening in the Middle East. We had both Jake Sullivan and Tony Blinken here yesterday, and there was no disguising the deep worries they have about where developments are heading.
How are things developing with the European support for Ukraine?
I think we are on our way to a solution of that. The Hungarian objection is being diluted somewhat. I think there are good prospects for the Europeans delivering the €50 billion that have been promised for the next few years. There might even be more. We could add the UK money to that. And accordingly, a bright prospect.
Will Macron’s moves regain him popularity in France?
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics.
Will President Macron, with his new government, succeed in relaunching himself in terms of popularity? It remains to be seen, but I think the odds are there. He clearly faces an uphill battle against the more nationalist forces in Le Pen prior to the European Parliament elections in late May, early June. And that is critical for him. His opinion poll standing is fairly low right now. He really needs to do better in European Parliament elections. And I think, yep, he might do it, but it remains to be seen.How is European support for Ukraine coming along?
That was, of course, a problem with the summit in December where Hungary, Viktor Orban, blocked the expected decision to give 50 billion Euros to Ukraine over the next few years. There's now I wouldn't say white smoke as of yet, but white puffs of smoke at least coming out of the discussions and rather hard discussions in Brussels. And I would expect that at the next summit on February 1st there will be an okay, a green light, for the 50 billion Euros for Ukraine. That is very much needed. And now the question is, of course, what will happen with American money with the mess in the US House of Representatives?
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Europe's big political stories to watch in 2024
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics.
What are the big political stories in Europe 2024?
Well, obviously the Russian aggression against Ukraine and the possibility of supporting Ukraine in its fight for its independence, freedom of sovereignty, is going to be the dominant story.
But apart from that, the election to the European Parliament happening in early summer, that's going to be enormously important, both because it will show the respective strengths of the different political forces in Europe. I would expect the center-right EPP to remain as the dominant force in the European Parliament, but that remains to be seen. And that is of course the beginning of the process of appointing all of the new personalities that will dominate the European Union in the coming five years. President of the European Council, president of the Commission, high representative for foreign and security affairs, president of the European Parliament, all of the commissioners, all will be decided during the month immediately after the election, based on that particular result.
Then, of course, an election in the United Kingdom, which is highly likely to produce a new government. And then perhaps the possibility, with a new commission and a new government in London, a more constructive relationship across the channel between Brussels and London. And I think that might be highly needed, as the country that I'm at the moment in is also having an election in November, and that might produce an outcome which might be highly problematic from several points of view. And Europe has to be ready
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President Joe Biden Welcomes President Zelensky Of Ukraine To The White House United States President Joe Biden and first lady Dr. Jill Biden welcome President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine to the White House in Washington, DC, Dec. 21, 2022
Zelensky coming to the White House
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will visit President Biden in Washington and meet with Congressional leaders next week. The visit will follow his in-person address to the United Nations in New York, and marks his second trip to D.C.
Will Zelensky’s visit help the impasse on Ukraine aid? Congress is in the midst of hashing out federal spending and Republicans are pushing for considerable cuts to the federal budget. That threatens the $13 billion in military aid and $8 billion in humanitarian funds Biden has requested for Ukraine.
During his previous address to Congress, Zelensky urged Americans to view their contributions to Ukraine’s fight as an “investment” in democracy and global security. But with election season heating up and Ukraine skepticism growing on the MAGA right, it may be a harder sell this time around.Vehicles are seen departing the Burning Man festival in Black Rock City, Nevada, U.S., on Sept. 4, 2023.
Hard Numbers: Muddy festival, climate credits, Ukrainian amputees, astronauts return, "Barbie" tops charts
70,000: An unexpected storm this weekend trapped 70,000 attendees of the annual counter-culture Burning Man festival in the Black Rock Desert of northern Nevada, as floods turned the sand to mud. One person reportedly died, but officials said the incident was “unrelated to the weather.” Many have now begun their trips home.
450,000,000: At the first-ever African Climate Summit in Kenya, the United Arab Emirates committed to buying 450,000,000 of carbon credits from the Africa Carbon Markets Initiative. The initiative seeks to boost Africa's carbon credit production 19-fold by 2030.
20,000: According to the Superhumans Center for rehabilitation in Ukraine, 20,000 Ukrainians have become amputees since the start of the war with Russia. These include soldiers and civilians, with most injuries being blast-related.
4:Four astronauts returned to Earth in a SpaceX capsule after spending six months in the International Space Station. The crew included two NASA and one Russian astronaut, as well as the first astronaut from the United Arab Emirates to spend an extended time in space.
1: This week, "Barbie" beat the "Super Mario Bros. Movie" for the title of number one film of the year. The dynamic doll pulled in $1.38 billion globally, overtaking the cartoon character’s $1.36 billion. Sparkle!
As Sudan war worsens, Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield says UN must help
On August 1, the United States will take over the presidency of the UN Security Council.
Ian Bremmer sat down with US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield at the UN headquarters in New York to find out what’s on the US agenda for the council presidency next month.
High on the list is addressing issues of food insecurity, human rights violations, and calling out Russia for their ongoing war in Ukraine. But Thomas-Greenfield is also concerned about another global conflict that isn’t getting nearly the same amount of attention: the war in Sudan.
On July 23, the Sudan conflict entered its 100th day. The war is waging a devastating human toll, reigniting ethnic violence and increasing concerns the country is descending into a “full-scale civil war.” On April 15, tensions between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces erupted into armed conflict, turning Khartoum and surrounding areas into a war zone. More than 3 million people have been displaced from their homes, including 700,000 refugees who’ve fled to nearby countries. The health ministry reports that some 1,136 people have been killed, though the true number is believed to be much higher.
Ambassador Thomas-Greenfield says that maintaining peace and security around the globe is a fundamental responsibility of the Security Council. While the war in Ukraine is certainly a priority, the war in Sudan must also be on the agenda.
“The people in Sudan want to hear from the Security Council that we have not forgotten them, that we care about the human rights violations that are being committed,” Thomas-Greenfield told Bremmer. “They need to hear the world has not turned their backs on what is happening in their country.”
Watch the upcoming full interview on GZERO World with Ian Bremmer on gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld and on US public television. Check local listings.