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EU Summit focuses on migration crisis
What is the Russian stake in the EU referendum in Moldova? What was the main outcome of the EU Summit last week? Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from London.
What is the Russian stake in the EU referendum in Moldova?
Well, the Russians are intending quite clearly to try to secure a "no" in that particular referendum. They're throwing money at it. They are trying to bribe voters. They are having an information campaign. So it's fairly obvious that their enthusiasm for the European aspirations of Moldova are fairly limited. We'll see how that turns out. There's also presidential election, but their sitting President Maia Sandu is highly likely to be re-elected.
What was the main outcome of the EU Summit last week?
It was migration, migration, migration. That is the issue that is dominating the politics in quite a number of European countries. And fairly obviously, it requires European solution. There have been agreements on the migration pact, not yet implemented fully. But clearly there's urge for further measures to sort of have a higher fence if possible. That's easier said than done. But also measures to send back to different countries the people who have no right to stay in Europe. So, Europe needs a higher fence, yes, that was the conclusion. But Europe also needs, as a matter of fact, a door, a fairly big door, because we have a demographic situation, a declining working age force in the years and in the decades ahead. So it's a huge issue. It's one difficult to balance, but clearly dominated the EU Summit.
Is an EU-China trade war brewing?
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Vienna, Austria
Is there a risk of a full-scale trade war between the European Union and China?
Hopefully not. But it was a decision, somewhat controversial, the other day by the EU to impose tariffs, not too high but still substantial, on electric vehicles coming from China. The US, of course, has done something similar but much higher tariffs and without much of a theoretical justification. I mean, the EU tried to ground its different decisions in analysis of the subsidies generated or given to the different Chinese car manufacturers. China will retaliate in one way or the other. But talks are going on and there's no interest in a trade war either from the EU side or from the Chinese side. And we should not forget, by the way, that for the moment, there are 100 times more cars sold by European companies in China than Chinese vehicles or cars exported to Europe.
Why is the deal between Italy and Albania on refugee centers so controversial?
Well it's been criticized by human rights groups, whether that is justified or not, it's difficult for me to judge. But the idea is for roughly 3,000 asylum seekers to Italy to be roughly 3,000 of them every month to be processed in two centers in Italy that are going to be run by and financed by Italy. We'll see how this would work out. They would be coming from primarily what they call "safe countries," and that means that the expectation is, of course, that the majority of them, or the vast majority of them, will have to be repatriated to their respective countries. It's part of the effort by X numbers of European governments to deal with the migration issue that is in very many of the countries the number one domestic policy concern at the moment.
Europe's biggest concerns about Middle East, one year after Oct. 7
What's the situation of Europe one year after the October 7th attack against Israel? What's the main takeaway from the visit of the new NATO Secretary General to Kyiv? Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Lisbon, Portugal.
What's the situation of Europe one year after the October 7th attack against Israel?
Well, I think deep apprehension is the best way of summing it up. Fears that we will see a further escalation of the conflict. Could be further problems in Gaza, could be further problems in West Bank. But perhaps particular now the situation of Lebanon, where there's the risk that we will see a further meltdown by the way of Lebanon. And we already have a million people on the move inside Lebanon. We have perhaps 100,000 people who are trying to flee from Lebanon into Syria. Mind you, there was a million and a half fleeing from Syria into Lebanon a couple of years ago. And the fear that we will see any refugee flow coming out of that area into Europe with all of the problems that would entail. So, deep apprehension on that situation.
What's the main takeaway from the visit of the new NATO Secretary General to Kyiv?
I think it was important for Mark Rutte to go to Kiev as the first thing he did really as the new Secretary General of NATO in order to make very clear his personal commitment to Ukraine, and the fact that he would put that at the top of his list of priorities, much in the same way as outgoing Secretary Jens Stoltenberg has done during the last few years. So, that was an important signal in itself.
Putin's nuclear policy revision is a sign of weakness
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from the Security Forum in Warsaw, Poland.
What are the implications of the revisions to the nuclear doctrine that President Putin of Russia announced last week?
We don't really know, but I would rather see it as a sign of weakness. If President Putin had confidence in the ability of his conventional forces to achieve the aims that he has set for them in his aggression against Ukraine, he wouldn't need to do this. Does it mean that he's intending to use nuclear weapons? Not necessarily. But he wants to remind us of the fact that it's in his arsenal, and I think we know that already.
What are the implications of the victory of the far-right forces in the Austrian elections?
Well, it is quite worrying, I have to say. The far-right Freedom Party is really far-right and really pro-Russian. They got 29% of the vote, a record for them. And whether they will be able to form a government, I think the other parties will try to form a government against them. I think it's going to take a couple of months to see whether that succeeds or not. But the worrying thing is, of course, that there's a risk of the formation of a far-right, nationalist, more neutralistic, you could say, bloc in Central Europe. We already have the Hungarians under Viktor Orbán nearby. We have Bratislava with the government there. There's an election coming up in the Czech Republic next year. So I'm not entirely comfortable, to put it mildly, with what we have seen coming out of the Austrian election.
Can Zelensky's 'victory plan' bring peace to Ukraine?
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Stockholm, Sweden.
First question, is Zelensky's finalized 'victory plan' realistic to bring peace to Ukraine?
Well, the peace plan that he's talking about is a proposal that he's going to present to President Biden at the meeting in UN in the next few days. They are there for the UN General Assembly, and it consists essentially of beefing up Ukraine's military capabilities with the possibility to use more long-range weapons and other things in order to substantially increase the military difficulties that Russia already having. Thus, possibly, hopefully, making it certain, making it clear to the Kremlin that there's no way to victory and that they have to sit down and agree to something that is acceptable and that can be called peace of some sort. Will this work? Remains to be seen, to put it in the mildest possible way.
Second question, why is there backlash against EU's anti-deforestation law?
Well, it's not unique for that particular one. I mean, all of the legislation for the so-called Green Deal that was decided due to the last five years, a lot of it is fairly complicated and has significant burdens on industry in order to reporting requirements and all of those. That includes the deforestation law. So there is a push to say, "Well, well it's all good. But let's delay it somewhat so that business has the possibility of catching up with all of the requirements." You will see that debate about several aspects of the Green Deal. It doesn't endanger the deal itself, but it perhaps streamlines and perhaps delays it somewhat.
Ukraine frustrated by delay on long-range weapons
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Kyiv, Ukraine.
What's the reaction on the discussions ongoing considering the possibility of Ukrainians to use long-range strike weapons?
Well, a lot of dissatisfaction here in Kyiv. There was the visit by Secretary Blinken and Foreign Secretary Lammy here. There were discussions between President Biden and Prime Minister Starmer in Washington, but no decision. And the Ukrainians really want to be able to strike back at the air bases from which the Russians are launching attacks, trying to completely demolish the Ukrainian energy system. I understand discussions will continue and it will have an impact on the mood here and possibly the conduct of the war.
What's the reaction to Germany's decision to partly at least reimpose on their border controls?
The reaction has been rather negative to put it mildly, as an understanding for the domestic political circumstances leading to the decision by the German government. But here's to take one example, Polish Prime Minister Tusk was scheduled to go to Berlin on a working visit. He canceled that in order to make it clear to the Germans that reimposing controls on the German-Polish border he considered to be contrary to the spirit of cooperation. So expect more on that particular story.
Why Egypt and Turkey finally resumed relations
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Stockholm, Sweden.
What's going to be the division of responsibilities in the new European Commission of Ursula von der Leyen?
Well, I think we'll get a hint of that towards the end of the week, where she is supposed to present her proposal before it goes then to the European Parliament and then eventually for ratification, be that early November, or whenever. There's a significant battle, primarily over the key economic portfolios. The Italians are demanding that their nominee, Fitto, be a minister in the government, should be given a key economic role. That's somewhat controversial, because he also will be the representative of the extreme right part of the European political spectrum. The French, needless to say, want to have their present commissioner, Breton, who’s been key with the outgoing commission, as an even more important personality. So that's going to be one of the battles. Another battle is that the Hungarians want to retain control of enlargement that will, in all probability, be refused. And then trade, financial affairs, budgets are going to be heavily contested or the focus, as well.
What's the significance of the visit of Egypt's President el-Sisi to Turkey?
Well, it is really a reconciliation after what happened in 2013 when el-Sisi staged the military coup against President Morsi, the Muslim Brotherhood president, who had been elected, and was heavily supported by President Erdogan, who made a jubilant visit to Cairo at the time. So, the relationship between these two important countries in eastern Mediterranean soured very considerably after 2013. And it's been a long road back to a more normal relationship that is now being established between Turkey and Egypt.
Starmer pursues EU alliances to soften Brexit blow
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Tabiano Castello in Italy.
What is motivating the Starmer UK government from seeking new security treaties with Germany and with Paris?
Well, it has to do essentially with Brexit, trying to mitigate the consequences of that and reengaging with European countries. That has tended to focus more on security issues. We'll see what's going to be the content of it. But in economic terms, as long as one excludes what the UK government does, going back into the single market and going back into Customs Union, to mitigate the economic consequences, a damaging one of Brexit, has got to be very difficult. It's a small step, but a good one.
What is the effect of Italy's very restrictive policies on migration and what's happening in the Mediterranean on the migration flows across the Mediterranean?
Yep, it's true. The Meloni government is taking a very restrictive approach, confiscating or impounding humanitarian relief boats, which is very controversial and heavily criticized. But the effect has, of course, been a significant drop in the number of people arriving. While last year, at this particular time, up until this time, it was 112,000 people arrived on the shores of Italy. Now that figure is down to 40,000. But several thousands have disappeared into the Mediterranean.