Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Hassan al-Shibani, accompanied by General Intelligence Service Director Hussein Al-Salama and Defence Minister Murhaf Abu Qasra, meets with his Turkish counterpart Hakan Fidan in Ankara, Turkey, August 13, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Turkey sends Syria weapons, US military heads to Southern Caribbean, Australia makes a pact in the South Pacific
Turkey looks to re-arm Syria
Turkey pledged to boost military cooperation with Syria on Wednesday, reinforcing its support for Damascus as interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa seeks to rebuild the country after nearly 14 years of civil war. The agreement – which provides new weapons systems, logistical support, and military training – comes as Syrian forces are under increasing scrutiny for abuses against the country’s Alawite and Druze minorities. Turkey has emerged as a key ally of the new administration since the fall of Assad’s regime, particularly as it appears focused onto undermininge the Kurdish forces in Turkey and Syria.
Australia attempts to counter Chinese influence in the South Pacific
Australia and Vanuatu – a small island in the South Pacific – have agreed to a $326.5 million agreement to boost economic, security, and climate change cooperation over the next decade. It follows years of Vanuatu deepening ties with China, its largest external creditor, through infrastructure loans. In response, Australia is seeking to strengthen its influence in the Pacific, as the West and China race for control over the chessboard of strategically vital Pacific Islands.
US to send military to Southern Caribbean Sea
The US is sending air and naval forces to the Southern Caribbean as part of Donald Trump’s stepped-up war on drug cartels, targeting Mexico’s Sinaloa Cartel and Venezuela’s Tren de Aragua. Since labeling these groups as global terrorist organizations, Washington has ramped up military involvement in anti-trafficking operations — from warship patrols to expanded drone surveillance across Mexico and Latin America. The stated goals: hit cartel networks harder, curb drug flows, and project US power deeper into the region.
An armed PKK fighter places a weapon to be burnt during a disarming ceremony in Sulaimaniya, Iraq, July 11, 2025, in this screengrab obtained from a handout video.
What We're Watching: Kurdish militants melt away the past, Trump to shift focus away from Congress, Germany gets a taste of US-style court battles
Kurdish militants burn their own guns
In a symbolic ending to more than 40 years of rebellion against the Turkish government, fighters from the PKK — a Kurdish militia — melted a cache of weapons in a gigantic cauldron on Friday. Earlier this year jailed PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan called for disarming as part of a process expected to deliver more cultural autonomy for Kurds, who make up 20% of Turkey’s population. The move shifts attention onto the future of affiliated Kurdish militias in Syria, as well as to Turkey’s parliament, where President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is courting support from Kurdish parties as he seeks to soften term limits.
Is the White House done with legislating?
A week after signing the One Big, Beautiful Bill into law, and just six months since taking office again, US President Donald Trump is reportedly done with pushing major legislation through Congress. As he goes into campaign mode ahead of the 2026 midterms, he will instead focus on key issues like trade and immigration via executive actions, which don’t require congressional approval but are susceptible to legal challenges. However, it seems not everyone is aligned: House Speaker Mike Johnson has said he still wants to pass two further budget reconciliation packages. Which is it? More bills or no more bills?
German constitutional court clash embarrasses Chancellor Merz
Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz's government had to shelve a vote on appointing three judges to the Constitutional Court after one of them was accused – spuriously, it turned out – of plagiarism, and criticized by conservative coalition members for supporting abortion rights. Critics are likening the drama to US-style culture wars over the judiciary, and have warned it undermines the legitimacy of Germany’s top court. The debacle also reflects the fragility of Merz’s three-month-old coalition, which holds just a slim, 12 seat majority in the Bundestag.
Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra (C) speaks to the media during a press conference after the Constitutional Court suspends her from duty at Government House.
What We’re Watching: Thailand’s PM ousted, Musk vs Trump on bill and midterms, Turkey arrests journalists for blasphemy
Thailand’s PM suspended over flattering phone call
Thailand’s constitutional court accepted a petition on Tuesday to suspend Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, as pressure mounts over the leader’s alleged mishandling of a border dispute with neighbouring Cambodia. The petition accuses Paetongtarn of violating ethical standards in a leaked phone call with influential Cambodian politician Hun Sen, during which she flattered Hun and disparaged her own country’s military. Paetongtarn now has 15 days to gather evidence pleading her case. If she is removed, her party will likely select a successor, but broader clashes with the opposition – and the streets – may just be beginning.
Elon Musk makes a huge threat versus Trump
World’s richest man Elon Musk has more thoughts to offer on US President Donald Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill.” If the bill passes Congress, Musk warns, a third American political party “will be formed the next day,” and every lawmaker who voted for it “will lose their primary next year if it is the last thing I do on this Earth.” The Senate passed its $3.3-trillion version of the bill on Tuesday, but it must go back through the House before it reaches the president’s desk. Musk’s warning won’t change the fate of Trump’s signature legislation – overwhelming pressure from the US president will far outweigh anything Musk can immediately apply – but his threats to spend mega-millions to swing next year’s midterm elections can’t be ignored.
Cartoon controversy in Turkey
Four employees of a satirical magazine in Turkey have been arrested for publishing a cartoon that authorities say depicts the Prophet Muhammad, which is forbidden in Islam. With disturbing echoes of the so-called “Charlie Hebdo” murders in Paris ten years ago, Istanbul riot police have had to contain protesters outside the magazine’s offices chanting for “blood” and “revenge.” The publishers emphatically deny their cartoon depicts the prophet, but prosecution of these journalists will offer an easy political win for the ever-controversial President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his government.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoǧan and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy attend a meeting at the Presidential Palace in Ankara, Turkey, on May 15, 2025.
So far, no steps toward peace in Ukraine
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky kept a low-level Russian delegation waiting in Istanbul on Thursday while he met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoǧan in Ankara.
Why is Zelensky in Turkey at all? It was in fact Vladimir Putin who proposed peace talks there in response to a recent European call for a 30-day ceasefire, but the Russian president is not attending personally. Putin’s decision to send junior officials is seen as an indication that he is not really interested in ending his invasion of Ukraine.
European leaders have warned that if Putin does not agree to stop the invasion, they will intensify sanctions on Russia and increase military aid to Ukraine.
But Donald Trump, who also called for peace talks in a social media post, seemed to reduce the pressure on Putin when he told reporters in Qatar that he was not expecting much from the meeting.
“Look, nothing is going to happen until Putin and I get together,” he said.
And while there was some speculation that Trump and Putin could yet show up in Turkey on Friday — a development that would substantially increase chances of a breakthrough — there was no sign of that by Thursday afternoon.
If that holds, the negotiations are unlikely to yield much of substance, and the basic deadlock will remain: Putin, keen to play for time while his army slowly advances, is demanding impossible conditions from Zelensky, while Trump, who pledged a swift end to the war, has grown increasingly frustrated with Putin but so far seems unwilling to apply more pressure on him.
Saudi Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman, and US President, Donald Trump, meet with the Syrian president Ahmad Al-Sharaa
Trump pledged to lift Syria sanctions, can Damascus seize the moment?
When US President Donald Trump promised to lift sanctions on Syria this week, the streets of Damascus erupted in celebration.
“It was a huge, huge day for Syrians,” says Ibrahim al-Assil, a Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, D.C., who is from the Syrian capital.
“Many people, my relatives and friends in Damascus, they are saying the same thing: ‘this is the second biggest day in my life after the fall of the regime!’”
For a country battered by more than a decade of war and mass emigration, Trump’s announcement has flung open a window of opportunity that few thought possible as recently as December. That was when current president Ahmed al-Sharaa, a one-time Al-Qaeda member, led a coalition of militias that overthrew the Assad dictatorship.
The reconstruction needs are huge. A recent UN report says Syria’s 14-year civil war cost the country at least $800 billion in lost GDP – the country’s annual output plunged from $67.5 billion in 2011 to just $23.62 billion in 2022. Estimates of the cost to rebuild the country’s infrastructure run into the hundreds of billions of dollars.
Trump’s move now opens the way for powerful foreign players like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey to help foot that bill, without fear of running afoul of US law.
Hold up, those sanctions didn’t vanish just yet. There are numerous restrictions on the books. The president can lift some, but others require Congress. US Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) has already questioned the wisdom of scrapping sanctions before it’s clear al-Sharaa and his allies have fully shed their jihadist pedigree.
Still, Trump’s personal commitment to sanctions relief, and the strong interest of US allies Saudi Arabia and Turkey in seeing it happen, means the measures are likely to come off sooner rather than later.
“There were some very strong dissenting voices within the administration,” says Firas Maksad, head of Eurasia Group’s Middle East practice. “But this was one of those times where the president just went over and above those differences.”
But even if the sanctions are scrapped, al-Sharaa still faces huge challenges if he wants to make good on the promise of Trump’s move.
For starters, he must tamp down long-standing sectarian tensions. Pro-government gunmen have recently clashed with both the Alawites – the Assad family’s own sect – and the Druze minority, which is backed by Israel. Christian and secular Syrians remain wary of a government still run almost entirely by Islamists close to al-Sharaa. At the same time, efforts to forge a new security force out of the country’s dozens of local militias have slowed.
What’s more, al-Sharaa has yet to follow through on a promise to appoint a new legislative council. The composition of that body will tell us a lot about whether he is willing, or able, to carefully balance the country’s various factions, but it will also serve a more basic function, says al-Assil.
“When we talk about investments and reviving the Syrian economy, that requires new laws to govern those investments, and a space to resolve conflicts so that they aren’t resolved through violence.” To date, that space seems to exist only among a small number of power-brokers close to al-Sharaa.
Lastly, Damascus will have to manage competition among the various outside powers jostling for influence in the new Syria.
The most immediate concern is Syria’s old foe Israel, which since December has moved aggressively to wreck Damascus’s military capabilities and establish its own sphere of influence in Southern Syria. The two sides are now speaking via backchannels, though, giving al-Sharaa the change to reach an understanding with the Israelis that gives him more breathing room.
But even among Syria’s friends there will be friction. The two likely giants on the scene, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, have in the past clashed over Istanbul’s support for Islamist political groups. Riyadh and Doha have had similar run-ins. Competing visions for Syria among its biggest patrons could prove destabilizing.
Despite this thicket of challenges, al-Assil is cautiously optimistic.
“Syrians want this to work,” he says, “they want to navigate a way to reconcile their differences, and they recognize how important this opportunity is. And that gives me hope.”
People shout slogans in front of the portrait of Sirri Sureyya Onder, a prominent pro-Kurdish party lawmaker and key figure in Turkey’s tentative process to end the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party’s (PKK) insurgency who died on Saturday at age 62, during his funeral in Istanbul, Turkey, on May 4, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Kurds in Turkey formally disband, Burkina Faso’s military murders civilians, White Afrikaners land in US, UK tries to curtail immigration, Top Argentina Court discovers Nazi docs
41: The revolution will not be finalized, as the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), a militant rebel group in Turkey, formally disbanded after a 41-year insurgency against the Turkish government. The original goal was to create an independent Kurdish state, but the group’s weakened position in Iraq and Syria forced it to declare a ceasefire in March, before ultimately dissolving. Turkey hasn’t fully secured peace, yet: it must now establish how to disarm the rebel group.
130: In March, the Burkina Faso military and its allied groups killed at least 130 ethnic Fulani civilians, per a Human Rights Watch report, as the government’s response to the Islamist insurgency turns vicious. Leaders of the Fulani, who are a Muslim community, deny any links with the Islamist militants. The massacre triggered reprisal killings, with insurgent groups – who control around 40% of the country – murdering at least 100 civilians in villages they believe are helping the government.
59: A group of 59 white Afrikaners landed in the United States from Johannesburg on Monday, after the Trump administration granted them refugee status in response to what they see as “racial discrimination” from South Africa’s government – the Rainbow Nation denies these claims. The move further escalates the rising tensions between Pretoria and Washington.
100,000: In the latest sign of rising anti-immigrant sentiment in the United Kingdom, Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced measures to reduce annual net immigration by 100,000 by 2029. The plan includes banning recruitment of care workers from abroad, cutting access to visas for skilled workers, and increasing English language requirements for all work visas. Net immigration reached a record 906,000 in the 12 months to June 2023.
4: Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama secured a fourth term in office after his party dominated Sunday’s parliamentary elections. With 94% of ballots counted, Rama’s Socialist Party won 52%, while opposition leader Sali Berisha’s Democratic Party sits on just 34%. It marks a setback for the MAGA message: Berisha had relied on the help of major Trump allies, to no avail.
83: As if replicating the plot of an Indiana Jones film, Argentina’s Supreme Court discovered Nazi documents among its archives that included propaganda material aimed at spreading the fascist ideology across the country. The material is believed to be part of the 83 packages that the German embassy in Tokyo sent to Buenos Aires on the “Nan-a-Maru” steamship in 1941. Argentina was a safe haven for the Nazis after World War II, though some – Adolf Eichmann, most infamously – were tracked down and brought to justice.
The Israeli Air Force launched an airstrike on Thursday, targeting a building in the Mashrou Dummar area of Damascus. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant confirmed Israel's responsibility for the attack, which resulted in one fatality.
Israel strikes Syria to warn Turkey
As we wrote in February, Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has big plans for Syria. Erdogan’s government was a crucial backer of the HTS militia, an Islamist rebel group that ousted longtime Syrian strongman Bashar Assad in December, and it now wants Turkey’s military to take over some air bases on Syrian territory in exchange for Turkish training of Syria’s new army.
This, Erdogan hopes, will allow Turkey to greatly expand its regional influence, return many of the millions of Syrian refugees still living inside Turkey back home, and clamp down on Kurdish militants who have used Syria as a base of operations against Turkey’s military.
That’s the backdrop for a wave of Israeli airstrikes on military targets inside Syria early Thursday. The Syrian government called the attacks a “deliberate attempt to destabilize Syria” and “a blatant violation of international law and Syrian sovereignty.”
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz quickly fired back at Syria’s president: “If you allow forces hostile to Israel to enter Syria and endanger Israeli security interests, you will pay a very heavy price.” Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar warned that Erdogan is doing his “utmost to have Syria as a Turkish protectorate.”
Syria’s fledgling military is no match for its neighbors, and its new government remains at the mercy of outside players. This dangerous competition to fill the vacuum in Syria created by the ouster of Assad is just beginning.
Turkey's protests & crackdowns complicate EU relations
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Stockholm, Sweden.
Do you think the Signal controversy in the US will have an impact on the transatlantic relationship?
Well, not in itself. It does betray an attitude to security issues that is somewhat too relaxed, to put it very mildly. But what does betray as well is the disdain, the resentment, the anger against Europeans that is there from the vice president, the secretary of defense, and others, and that is duly noted. And of course, something that is subject of what we have to note it. It's there. It's a fact.
What impact do you think the Turkish protest and instability will have on Turkish relationships with its European allies?
Well, it's certainly not going to be a good thing. We have an interest in good relationship and stable relationship with Turkey. It's a significant EU strategic actor. It's a significant economy. But of course, when we have these arrests of a prominent opposition, politicians, we have massive protests that are repressed, that we have massive violations of social media and arrests of journalists and things like that. It does complicate things to put it very mildly. We haven't seen the end of that story yet.