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Somalia signs defense pact with Turkey amid tensions with Ethiopia
Turkey confirmed Thursday that it has signed a defense agreement with Somalia. The deal commits Ankara to defending Somali waters and to helping Mogadishu build up its navy against “foreign interference” – a veiled reference to rising tensions with Ethiopia.
Last month, Addis Ababa signed a memorandum of understanding with the breakaway state of Somaliland allowing Ethiopia to utilize the port of Berbera in exchange for recognizing Somaliland’s independence. Ethiopia is the world’s most populous landlocked country, so securing sea access is vital, but Mogadishu says the deal is an unacceptable violation of its sovereignty.
Could it come to war? The United States is certainly concerned, with Washington’s top Africa diplomat, Assistant Secretary of State Molly Phee, shuttling between meetings with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and telling reporters “the region can ill-afford more conflict.” The European and African Unions, the Arab League, and Egypt are all echoing US and Turkish calls for Somali sovereignty to be respected.
But we’ve got our eye on the United Arab Emirates, which previously facilitated ties between Ethiopia and Somaliland and could lean on its growing military influence in the Horn of Africa to sway the course of events – particularly with African Union troops set to pull out of Somalia this year.US approves F-16s for Turkey, moving Sweden NATO membership closer
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics from Stockholm.
How are things proceeding with the ratification of the Swedish membership in NATO?
Well, it’s been some back and forth. But now Turkey has ratified and that is important. That has to do with also the agreement with the US on deliveries of F-16s and modification kits of F-16s and deliveries of F-35s to Greece. A major package has been negotiated, so that should be okay. Now, remaining with Hungary. Prime Minister Orban is a slightly unpredictable fellow, but I would guess that he can't hold off for very long. So I would hope, expect this process to be wrapped up within a couple of weeks.
What about British generals and others warning for the danger of a major war in Europe?
There have been a couple of such voices. I don’t think they signify anything that is imminent in terms of dangers, but they signify a concern. What might happen if the war between Russia, the aggression, if that continues? If we don't have sufficient support for Ukraine, if Ukraine doesn't succeed, then that could well be the beginning of a much more major war and a much more severe security challenge for all of Europe. So I think what you hear, from different generals, should be seen in that rather serious light.
Turkey gets F-16s, Greece gets F-35s, and Sweden gets one step closer to NATO
Alliances involve a delicate dance. Turkey’s parliament formally approved Sweden’s entry into NATO last week, finally removing the biggest impediment to Stockholm’s accession. In exchange, the US State Department has notified Congress it will now approve the sale of 40 F-16 fighter jets to Turkey, plus kits to modernize Ankara's existing “Vipers.” Not a bad deal, but Turkey really wants what its rivals/allies across the Aegean are getting: the F-35.
The Biden administration is moving forward with a $9 billion sale to Greece of 20 top-of-the-line Lockheed F-35 stealth fighter jets. Call it a perk of good relations. Turkey, on the other hand, lost its chance to buy the newest gear after purchasing Russian anti-air missiles in 2019, against strenuous American objections.
And there’s a lot at stake in the balance of air power between the two nominal NATO allies, as they dispute control over areas of the Aegean Sea. Starting in the 1990s, multiple dogfights between Greek and Turkish pilots have resulted in deaths, with the most recent in 2018. When the Greeks have been flying less capable French-made Mirage jets they have tended to get the worst of it, so leapfrogging over Turkey’s air power could shift the status quo in their favor.
Congress will have 15 days to review the deals. We’ll then have our eye on Hungary, the last remaining holdout against Sweden joining NATO. Considering Budapest has nowhere near the economic, military, or political heft of Ankara – and asked Stockholm for negotiations – we’re watching for a considerably smaller concession.
2023 game changers that weren’t
What we thought would stir up the political landscape in 2023… but didn’t.
1. Ron DeSantis
Earlier this year, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was widely viewed as perhaps the only Republican who could give former President Donald Trump a run for his money in the race for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination. He was seen as a younger, more polished version of Trump in many ways. But DeSantis’ heavy focus on fueling culture wars – his anti-woke crusade – fell flat with voters in 2023. His underwhelming and often awkward performances on the debate stage haven’t helped. Indeed, as the year comes to a close, there are few signs that DeSantis has any real shot of seizing the nomination over Trump – his approval has even fallen in Florida.
2. Yevgeny Prigozhin
Though he was 2023’s most colorful character, the exploits of this soldier of fortune, entrepreneur, media star, violent sociopath, and former hot dog vendor amounted to sound and fury signifying not much. He briefly led a mutiny that challenged the Kremlin’s power as bemused Russians and fascinated foreigners watched. Realizing too late he had too few friends in Moscow, he retreated, then later went down in a phony plane crash. Now, nothing is left but the noise.
3. The Earthquake in Turkey
In February, a massive earthquake rocked southeastern Turkey, killing 60,000 people, displacing 1.5 million, and exposing rampant corruption in the building safety bureaucracy. At the time, many thought President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s sluggish response would kill the strongman’s chances of reelection at a moment when the opposition was gaining momentum. Not so. Erdogan’s blend of Islamist populism and pugnacious foreign policy carried him comfortably back to the White Palace after all.
4. Nigeria’s youth voters
Since the country’s return to democracy in 1999, Nigeria’s politics have been dominated by two parties, the APC and PDP, and Nigerians were gearing up for another uninspiring choice in the 2023 elections — until dark horse candidate Peter Obi made his move. He broke with the PDP and threw in with the little-known Labour Party, launching an energetic campaign on social media that promised change. He captured the imagination of Nigeria’s booming youth cohort, and with the backing of ethnic Yoruba elders as well, Obi looked promising enough to make the powers that be sweat. But he came up short in an election he maintains was rigged against him, even after a court ruling upheld the results.
- How Turkey's earthquake may shape the future of its democracy ›
- DeSantis in a storm ›
- Nigeria elects political “Godfather" as president ›
- Prigozhin presumed dead ›
- GZERO End-of-the-Year lists: Top 5 political animals of 2023 ›
- 10 images that captured 2023 - GZERO Media ›
- GZERO 2023 political music playlist - GZERO Media ›
Hard Numbers: Imran Khan’s AI dub, Turkey's AI sector boost, Danish death forecasts, IBM’s big bet
$100 million: One of Turkey’s largest venture capital firms is preparing to pour money into the region’s AI sector. Revo Capital is raising $100 million, which will go to AI-related startups in Turkey and throughout central Asia. Revo has found international appeal with investments into the Turkey-based delivery startup Getir, lamenting to Bloomberg that Turkish firms are often ignored by foreign investors.
6 million: Danish researchers claim that their new AI model, trained on a massive data set of 6 million Danish individuals, can predict early death better than insurance company actuarial tables. The researchers, based at the Technical University of Denmark, want to keep their model far away from the hands of insurance companies, but it could be used to help people better understand health and environmental risk factors in their lives.
$2.33 billion: IBM is making a $2.33 billion purchase to boost its AI offerings. The technology giant just announced that it reached a cash deal to buy two divisions of the German company Software AG. The units, called StreamSets and webMethods, are data management tools that IBM plans to integrate with its Watsonx AI data platform that it sells to business clients.
Still no Swedish meatballs at the NATO cantina
Just days after the Swedish foreign minister said he was confident his country would join NATO “within weeks,” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has thrown up another roadblock.
If you’re counting, the process has now dragged on for more than 18 months, as Turkey and Hungary are the two NATO member holdouts blocking Sweden’s formal accession to the alliance.
Erdoğan says that while he’s “done his duty” by asking lawmakers to greenlight Sweden’s entry, he now expects Washington to reward him by approving his long-coveted purchase of US-made F-16 fighter jets. The Turkish president’s idea is that both processes should occur “simultaneously.”
But the US Congress doesn’t share that idea. Lawmakers in Washington won’t sign off on the F-16 sale “until Sweden is let into NATO,” according to Eurasia Group US Director Clayton Allen. And Erdoğan’s recent statements in support of Hamas and sanctions-busting trade with Russia will “make that even thornier,” he says.
Still, Erdoğan’s game isn’t to block Sweden indefinitely, but rather to engage in “diplomatic grandstanding and bazaar bargaining”, says Emre Peker, Europe analyst at Eurasia Group.
The inflection point, says Peker, will be Turkish local elections scheduled for next March. If Erdoğan detects political advantage in chastising the US and wagging his finger at NATO allies still, he can have his lawmakers withhold approval for Sweden until after that vote, if he likes.
Either way, that timeline would – in theory – make it possible to see Swedish meatballs on the menu at the NATO summit in Washington in July, commemorating the 75th anniversary of the alliance.
Sweden is confident it will finally become a NATO member
Sweden’s top diplomat is optimistic that the nearly year-long delay in his country’s NATO accession caused by Turkey and Hungary will soon be over. Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billstrom says that Turkey could approve Sweden’s NATO membership “within weeks,” and he expects Budapest to follow Ankara’s lead.
Billstrom met this week with his Turkish counterpart and spoke with Hungary’s foreign minister. “We expect white smoke from Budapest the moment there’s white smoke from Ankara,” he said, using the metaphor for conclaves signaling they’ve selected a pope.
Sweden and Finland broke long-standing policies of neutrality and moved to join NATO last year after Russia invaded Ukraine. Finland is now a member of the alliance, but Turkey and Hungary have obstructed Sweden’s bid. Expanding NATO requires the approval of all current members.
Turkey initially objected to Sweden’s application over allegations that Stockholm supported Kurdish groups that Ankara considers to be terrorists. Ankara also took issue with an arms embargo that Sweden imposed on Turkey, though that has since been lifted. At the NATO summit in July, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan reversed course and said he’d support Sweden’s bid after getting assurances that Stockholm would work to address Ankara’s security concerns.
Meanwhile, Hungary's governing Fidesz Party has accused Sweden of spreading “blatant lies” about the state of democracy in the Central European country and has stood in the way of a parliamentary vote on the matter. A senior Fidesz lawmaker recently said there’s “little chance” parliament will vote on Sweden’s NATO bid this year.
Similarly, Hungarian PM Viktor Orban in September said that his country is in “no rush” to ratify Swedish accession. Despite Sweden’s apparent confidence this issue will soon be resolved, it seems the Scandinavian country may have to wait until 2024. But we’ll be watching to see whether Billstrom is right – that Sweden could be added to the alliance in the more immediate future.
Turkish exports of military-tied goods to Russia skyrocket
Turkish exports of military-tied goods to Russia have spiked this year, sprinkling even more awkwardness atop the already tense state of relations between Ankara and NATO.
Amid the war in Ukraine, the US and its allies have imposed export controls to prevent dual-use items – goods that can be used in civilian and military applications – from reaching Russia. The goal is to throw a wrench in Russia’s war machine by limiting access to items that might aid its military, such as microchips, telescopic sights, and communications equipment.
Turkey, a NATO ally, exported $158 million worth of 45 categories of goods the US deems “high priority” to Russia and five other former Soviet countries between January and September 2023, according to a Financial Times report. That’s three times the level exported during the same period last year.
The number of sensitive goods exported from Turkey to the five ex-Soviet countries reportedly did not line up with their reported imports, raising the question of whether the goods actually went straight to Russia.
Washington’s response: The US has already sanctioned Turkish companies in relation to the war in Ukraine, and it’s conceivable that more private entities could be slapped with economic penalties over the exportation of military-linked goods to Russia. The Turkish government has not embraced Western sanctions against Russia, but its foreign ministry told FT that “strict monitoring and prevention of efforts to skirt sanctions through Turkey is an integral part of our … policy.”
James O’Brien, US assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian Affairs, on Monday told reporters that Turkey has taken steps to make it more difficult for certain items to transit its territory, but also conceded that “obviously there’s always more to do.”
Brian Nelson, US Treasury under-secretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, meanwhile, is set to visit Ankara and Istanbul this week. During the trip, Nelson will “discuss efforts to prevent, disrupt, and investigate trade and financial activity that benefit the Russian effort in its war against Ukraine,” Treasury said in a statement.