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Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky speaks during a press conference in Kyiv, Ukraine, on November 25, 2023.
Ukraine funding gets tied in knots
Ukraine has been warning for months that it won’t be able to continue resisting Putin’s aggression without further Western support. But that aid is starting to dry up, right as Kyiv’s fight against Russian invaders settles into a stalemate. What’s happening?
In the US: The US has given more aid to Ukraine than anyone else, but the White House this week warned Congress that it’s almost out of money for Ukraine, imploring lawmakers to earmark more funds fast. But growing opposition to Ukraine aid from the GOP right wingers is now tied up with partisan squabbles over border security, choking off additional aid for Kyiv. Things are so bad on Capitol Hill that Zelensky on Tuesday canceled a direct appeal to lawmakers.
In Europe: EU budget debates are tying up €50 billion that the bloc promised to Ukraine. And since all decisions require unanimous approval, even a few holdouts can spike things.
That’s what’s happening with Ukraine, as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who is famously friendly to Russia – the source of 85% of his country’s gas supply – opposes aiding Kyiv and doesn’t want Brussels to offer the Ukrainians a path to EU membership.
But ahead of an upcoming EU leaders’ summit, French President Emmanuel Macron will meet with Orbán in Paris on Thursday, in a bid to reach a compromise that secures Budapest’s blessing for more Ukraine support, Politico reports. There’s money on the table: the EU froze billions in funds to Hungary last December over rule-of-law concerns. Though some of that funding has since been released, it hasn’t been enough to shift Orban’s stance on Ukraine so far.
With friends like these: Poland has been one of Ukraine’s biggest military backers, but Polish truckers striking at the Ukrainian border are now holding up military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine. They’re protesting a 2022 decision by the EU to grant Ukrainian trucks permit-free access to the Union, in order to boost Ukraine’s wartime economy. The Polish truckers – who say the Ukrainians are abusing their privileges – aren’t happy about the resulting competition, and the Polish government wants the EU to reinstate the permit requirements.
The bottom line: On both sides of the Atlantic, Ukraine’s foreign lifelines are drying up fast. Will that change Kyiv’s calculations about continuing the fight versus seeking a settlement with Russia? As winter comes, that’s the story to watch.
President Joe Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky walk to the Oval Office of the White House, Thursday, September 21, 2023, in Washington, DC, USA.
White House: Money for Ukraine is running low
The Biden administration on Monday warned Congress that it’s on the verge of running out of money to support Ukraine in its fight against Russia, imploring lawmakers to act before the end of the year. In a letter to congressional leaders, Office of Management and Budget Director Shalanda Young emphasized that if US aid stopped flowing it would “kneecap Ukraine on the battlefield” and increase the “likelihood of Russian military victories.”
So far, Congress has allocated $111 billion to assist Ukraine. But Young said that by mid-November the Defense Department had used up 97% of the $62.3 billion it had received, while the State Department had already utilized 100% of the $4.7 billion in military assistance it received.
Republican opposition: President Joe Biden has pushed for Congress to pass a $106 billion aid package that includes $61 billion for Ukraine, but he’s faced stiff opposition from Republicans. With the 2024 election on the horizon and polling showing voters growing wary of continued US aid to Ukraine, many GOP lawmakers have taken a strong stance against signing off on more funding for Kyiv.
House Speaker Mike Johnson has tied the issue to immigration, signaling that the GOP won’t green-light additional aid to Ukraine unless Biden agrees to changes in border security policy.
The bottom line: The war in Ukraine is largely deadlocked, but if US support dries up it could spell serious trouble for Kyiv in the days ahead.
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky welcomes U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin before their meeting, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine November 20, 2023.
In Ukraine, winter is coming
Ukraine faces a tough winter, and its Western backers know it. That’s why US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin made a surprise visit to Kyiv on Monday to signal “unwavering US support” for the country’s defense. It’s also why EU leaders will gather next month to set Ukraine on the long and winding road toward eventual union membership.
Despite recent advances across the Dnipro River and some long-distance hits scored against Russian forces in Crimea and the Black Sea, Ukraine’s much-hyped counteroffensive has done little to persuade American and European backers that Ukraine can win an outright victory against Russian forces. Fatigue is reportedly high as temps drop along the frontlines. President Volodymyr Zelensky is rumored to face internal feuds about what to do next.
Meanwhile, in the United States, Ukraine’s most important arms and money supplier, continued support is under heavy political pressure. Some conservative Republicans, including GOP presidential candidates, have begun to publicly demand an end to all funding for Ukraine. GOP presidential favorite Donald Trump wants to condition military and financial help for Ukraine on any and all evidence the FBI, IRS, and Justice Department have on, as Trump puts it, “the Biden Crime Family’s corrupt business dealings.”
For now, Ukraine has the weapons and money it needs to continue the fight. But Russian forces still occupy about 18% of Ukraine’s territory, and Western fears of a costly, long-term stalemate have Ukraine’s leaders hoping for warmer and brighter days ahead.
Why the Israel-Hamas war is so divisive
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Ian Bremmer here and a Quick Take to kick off your week. And more from the Middle East, the story that continues to dominate the headlines.The story that continues to dominate the headlines. And right now, foreign ministers from across the Middle East and the Muslim world, including the Palestinian foreign minister in Beijing and soon to be in Moscow and soon after that, to be in London and Paris to talk about efforts to contain and end the war in the Middle East. The Chinese foreign minister calling for an immediate ceasefire, also calling for a two-state solution, agreeing with the Americans on the latter, not agreeing with the Americans on the former. This is an environment where pretty much everybody involved is trying to get an end to the fighting except the United States, which is the most important ally, the critical ally of Israel.
And the Israelis intend to continue their military strikes until they feel like they have destroyed Hamas on the ground. And that means not just in Gaza City, but also it means in the south of Gaza. This is causing difficulties inside the United States with stronger opposition inside the Democratic Party, especially among young people where Biden is under water wanting a much more balanced, much less pro-Israel policy. And Republicans who on balance think that Biden has been too soft in his support for Israel. This means that Biden's at 40% approval right now, the lowest of his administration to date. And it's hard to see this getting any better any time soon. I think that the Israelis are clearly having military successes on the ground in Gaza. And when you talk to the generals, they feel like they're on the timeline they want to be. They are finding the tunnels, finding the militant leaders, able to go after with impunity, those that are there. Of course, the very fact that Hamas is fighting inside a civilian area, that they have tunnels underneath schools and hospitals, and that's where they're putting the hostages. And we've seen those videos now that are confirmed and where they're putting their military equipment makes Hamas responsible for a lot of the civilians that are getting killed, but also makes the Israelis responsible in the global environment for not being able to take out Hamas unless they put massive numbers of civilians at risk.
And so what you have is the Israelis winning, at least tactically, the military battles on the ground, whether one can destroy Hamas or extremist militarism against Israel through bombing and a ground war is another longer question. But losing the information war where around the world and including in the United States, there is just a lot more sympathy increasingly for the Palestinians. Only six weeks after the worst terrorist attacks, the worst violence against Jews anywhere in the world since the Holocaust. That is the reality.
And, you know, it's very different in this regard than covering the Russia-Ukraine invasion, where, first of all, the Ukrainians were winning the information war and also it was very clearly a black versus white struggle. I mean, these were, you know, not that the Ukrainians are Democrats and didn't have problems with corruption, but they were minding their own business. They wanted to join NATO. True. That's a decision that is made by a sovereign country. But they weren't threatening Russia. They weren't invading Russia. They were doing nothing to Russians in the Federation. And that was even true despite years of annexation illegally by the Russians of Ukrainian territory. So it was very clear when the Russians invaded Ukraine that the Russians were at fault and that the question is how can you respond to that? It was black and white.
In the case of Israel and Palestine, it is very clear that Hamas is responsible for October 7th. That's clear. But it's also clear that the Israelis have engaged in a lot of illegal actions in taking Palestinian territory on the ground in the West Bank and continue to occupy territory that is not theirs that nobody thinks is theirs and not prepared to do anything about it. It's also clear that the Israeli government had been supporting Hamas in undermining the Palestinian Authority and in refuse thing to consider a two-state solution under Netanyahu and his far right coalition. So, I mean, it's not black and white. There are different shades of gray. There are you know, it's very easy to say that Hamas is a terrorist organization and that means they should be destroyed and Netanyahu is a bad leader and that means he should be voted out. But there's no equivalence between these two leaders. But saying there's no equivalence doesn't mean that one is good and the other's bad. Here we are talking about different shades of illegal activity and we're also talking about different shades of behavior that is causing immense amounts of responsibility for human suffering.
And you can't simply say that Hamas is only responsible for all the people that are getting killed. You can't say that. You can say they're mostly responsible because they're the ones that have the hostages. They're the ones targeting the civilians. They're the ones putting civilians in harm's way. But certainly the Israeli Defense Forces deserve some culpability for their willingness to, you know, have a siege and not allow in humanitarian aid. And their willingness to engage in attacks that are going to take out some militants, but are going to risk the lives of far more civilians. And, you know, how do you balance that? Is it 90:10 Hamas responsible? Is it 70:30? Is it 80:20? I'm not sure I care, you know, doing a percentage as I am in recognizing that we have to describe the nuance. We have to be reasonable in not trying to play one side off as purely responsible and guilty and bad, that the only way this is going to lead to peace is if Hamas is removed, if they are destroyed as a terrorist organization. Number one. If there are prospects for peace for Palestinians to have livelihoods in Gaza and the West Bank going forward, and if Netanyahu and his far right coalition are removed from office, those things are all necessary antecedent conditions before we can have stability in the region.
That's where we are. So it's not an easy conversation. It's a nuanced conversation. It's one that makes almost nobody satisfied and happy in a way that on Russia and Ukraine, it was very easy to be on team Ukraine, even though they frequently lied about stuff in terms of propaganda and support of the war. And their government wasn't 100% clean and isn't 100% clean. But it's still very easy to say the Ukrainians deserve their territory back. It's much harder in this environment on Israel-Palestine to put your thumb on one side of the scale, you have to have a broader conversation if you want to be accurate and if you want to have peace. And that's where we are, and that's part of the reason why it's been so damn difficult to get peace in the Middle East for decades and decades, why the Americans, like many others, have kind of given up on it in favor of just trying to create stability with everybody else. And that worked to a degree. But now we see it wasn't enough. And so we're going to have to go back yet again in one of the most challenging geopolitical missions that we face in the world today.
So that's it for me, but I'm sure we'll be back to this real soon.
- The debate over a “cease-fire” for Gaza ›
- US compared to Russia after tanking UN resolution on Gaza ›
- Biden seeks urgent aid package for Israel, Ukraine ›
- Israel-Hamas war: Biden's second foreign policy crisis ›
- How Netanyahu used Hamas to avoid talks of a two-state solution ›
- Is an Israel-Palestine two-state solution possible? ›
Tens of thousands of Israel supporters march on the National Mall in Washington, DC, on Tuesday, Nov. 14, 2023.
Hard Numbers: March shows solidarity for Israel, US Army overturns convictions of Black soldiers, US inflation cools, EU falls short on artillery shells for Ukraine, House passes funding bill
100,000: Tens of thousands flocked to the National Mall in Washington, DC, on Tuesday to show their solidarity with the Jewish state amid its push to eradicate Hamas in Gaza following the Oct. 7 terror attacks. Several Jewish groups helped organize the event to demand the release of Israeli hostages and to push back against a rising tide of antisemitism. Organizers anticipated a crowd of 100,000 demonstrators, but some estimates suggested the turnout may have been nearly triple that.
110: The US Army has overturned the convictions of 110 Black soldiers who were charged with murder, mutiny, and other crimes following a 1917 riot in Houston. Nineteen of the soldiers were executed, marking the largest mass execution of US soldiers by the Army. Secretary of the Army Christine Wormuth said it was determined that the soldiers “were wrongly treated because of their race and were not given fair trials.” The records of these soldiers will be corrected to characterize their service as honorable, the Army said.
3.2%: Inflation is chilling out, in welcome news to Americans and their wallets. The Consumer Price Index rose 3.2% in October compared to a year ago, according to new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, down from the 3.7% year-over-year increase in September. Polling from the past year has repeatedly shown that inflation is the top concern for Americans, with many voters giving President Joe Biden low marks for his handling of the economy.
1 million: Germany on Tuesday said the EU is unlikely to hit a goal of providing Ukraine with 1 million rounds of artillery ammunition by March 2024. The announcement comes amid Kyiv’s continued push for more military aid for its ongoing war against Russian invaders. Meanwhile, there is dwindling support in the US for providing further assistance to Ukraine, as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky feels the pressure from his military’s stalling counteroffensive.
336: The GOP-led House on Tuesday passed a stopgap funding bill that would prevent a shutdown and fund the government into 2024. The bill passed 336 to 95, with 209 Democrats and 127 Republicans voting in favor. The measure, which is expected to pass in the Senate and be signed by President Joe Biden before the Friday shutdown deadline, would provide funding for some agencies until mid-January and others until Feb. 2.
Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Valery Zaluzhny attends a meeting with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in July 2023.
Troubling accusations in Ukraine
Did Ukraine plunge Europe into the dark last year? That’s the charge from unnamed Ukrainian officials, who claim Col. Roman Chervinsky, of Ukraine’s special operations forces, coordinated a sabotage operation that caused three explosions at the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines on Sept. 26, 2022. The pipelines run from Russia to Germany under the Baltic Sea, and Nord Stream 1 (Nord Stream 2 wasn't in use yet) provided about 35% of the gas European Union states imported from Russia prior to the war.
Through his lawyer, Chervinsky – who’s awaiting trial on charges of abuse of power related to a different matter – denied any role in the attack, calling it “Russian propaganda.” But he isn’t the focus of the Nord Stream accusations: Observers say they are really directed at Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, Ukraine’s highest-ranking military officer, to whom Chervinsky’s bosses reported.
Zaluzhny was recently involved in a public spat with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky over an interview and op-ed Zaluzhny gave to The Economist, where he described the state of the war as a “stalemate.”
Those remarks – amid fears they might prompt Western nations to push for a settlement between Moscow and Kyiv – earned a sharp rebuke from Zelensky. A few days later, Major Gen. Viktor Khorenko, head of special operations forces and one of Zaluzhny’s deputies, was dismissed in a surprise move.
Zaluzhny is a popular figure and is considered a potential political rival to Zelensky, even though he hasn’t shown an interest in politics. The leak of the Nord Stream story may be the latest sign of a growing rift between Zelensky and the military, as the conflict with Russia drags into its second year, the counteroffensive stalls, and next year’s planned elections loom.
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Commander in Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Valerii Zaluzhnyi visit an artillery training centre, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, at an undisclosed location in Ukraine November 3, 2023.
Are divisions emerging in Ukraine’s politics?
Ukraine has elections scheduled for 2024, but President Volodymyr Zelensky doesn’t believe they should take place. “This is a time for defense,” he warned, “a time for battle, upon which the fate of the state and its people depend.” Zelensky also rejected any suggestion that the failure of Kyiv’s five-month-old counteroffensive to score major gains against Russian invaders leaves Ukraine’s war at a stalemate.
With those convictions in mind, it’s easy to see why Zelensky might be upset with recent public comments from his top field commander, General Valery Zaluzhny, who told The Economist that “Just like in the first world war, we have reached the level of technology that puts us into a stalemate.” Success against Russia, Zaluzhny insists, depends on innovations in what is already state-of-art Western weaponry Ukraine has received or is expecting soon.
Zelensky knows that Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has no interest in talks or concessions, and he argues that Ukraine’s American and European backers shouldn’t push him to offer compromises with no hope of Russian reciprocity.
Zelensky may also fear that Zaluzhny could become a powerful political rival. The general’s reputation for modesty and frank talk makes him and the military popular– an October Gallup poll of Ukrainians put confidence in the armed forces at 95% – and he’s the man leading the war effort day to day. Zelensky, who also still polls above 80%, would prefer that Ukraine speak with one voice — and, of course, that the voice be his.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen take part in a ceremony honoring Railway Workers at the Central Railway Station in Kyiv on Nov. 4, 2023.
Is there support for a diplomatic settlement for Ukraine?
As the Israel-Hamas war intensifies, there’s talk that Ukraine is being pressured to seek a settlement in its war with Russia, now in its 20th month.
On Saturday, a current and a former U.S. official, both anonymous, claimed US and European officials have spoken to Kyiv about possible peace negotiations. The speculation follows an Economist interview with Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhny who said the conflict has hit a stalemate, and that unless Ukraine acquires more advanced weaponry and information technology, “(t)here will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough.”
That prompted an aggressive response from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. “Time has passed, people are tired … But this is not a stalemate,” Zelensky told a press conference at the EU on Saturday.
Zelensky also denied being pressured by the West to make concessions and on Sunday’s Meet the Press, Zelensky warned that: “If Russia will kill all of us, they will attack NATO countries and you will send your sons and daughters [to fight].”
He also addressed growing skepticism about aid for Ukraine among US Republicans and challenged Donald Trump – who’s asserted he could settle the conflict in 24 hours – to visit Kyiv. Zelensky promised to explain to the former US president “in 24 minutes” why Russia can’t be allowed to triumph.
How do Ukrainians and Russians feel? A Gallup poll last month found that while 60% of Ukrainians believe the country should continue to fight, that’s down from 70% in Sept. 2022, and nearly a third, 31%, now believe it’s time to negotiate, compared to 26% a year ago. Another survey last month by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology found that while 14% said Ukraine can make some territorial concessions, up from 8% in Sept. 2022, 80% still say no territorial concessions should be made under any circumstances.
The Levada Center asked two groups of Russians questions about the next steps in the conflict. The first was asked whether they would support a decision to halt military operations and open negotiations: 70% supported the measures, while 21% were against. The second group was asked whether Putin should not only negotiate but also return occupied territories: that solution garnered only 34% support, while 57% were opposed. In short, war fatigue is real and has started to boost nominal support for negotiations – but little support for territorial concession.
Going nuclear: Meanwhile, there is concern that Moscow might seek a way out of the current stalemate by going nuclear. Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a bill revoking his country’s ratification of a global nuclear test ban.
On Sunday, Russia's defense ministry announced that it had successfully tested a Bulava intercontinental ballistic missile from its strategic nuclear submarine, the Imperator Alexander III. We’ll be watching to see whether such saber-rattling adds pressure for a diplomatic resolution.