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KYIV, UKRAINE - DECEMBER 9, 2024 - Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Andriy Yermak, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Deputy Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Ihor Zhovkva (L to R) attend a meeting with German Chancellor candidate, leader of the Christian Democratic Union Friedrich Merz, Kyiv, capital of Ukraine.
Zelensky preps for hard bargaining
President-elect Donald Trump has pledged to end Russia’s war with Ukraine. That would require Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin to open negotiations – and to find enough common ground to agree at least to a ceasefire. Putin and Zelensky are now trying to strengthen their respective bargaining positions before talks can begin.
On Monday, Zelenskysaid via social media that he’s open to the possibility of Western governments posting troops on Ukrainian territory to guarantee his country’s territorial integrity, an idea firstsuggested publicly by France’s President Emmanuel Macron in February. “But before that, we must have a clear understanding of when Ukraine will be in the European Union and when Ukraine will be in NATO,” Zelensky wrote.
The EU and NATO remain unlikely to commit to precise membership timetables until it becomes clear what Ukraine’s future borders will be, and many Western leaders remain opposed to deploying troops into a warzone that could involve them directly in a war with Russia. For now, Zelensky continues to work with the outgoing Joe Biden administration to bolster his weapons stockpiles and to win more freedom to use Western weapons against his targets inside Russia.
There’s another political transition that Zelensky is watching carefully: Germany will hold national elections in February, and current Chancellor Olaf Scholz will likely lose his job to Friedrich Merz, the head of the center-right Christian Democratic Union. Merz is more publicly hawkish on helping Ukraine repel Russian invaders. That prospect gives Zelensky some hope that European backing for Ukraine will remain even if Trump dials back US support.
Putin's strategy in Ukraine ahead of Trump's return
Putin has been warning them not to do that. They decided they were going to, the Russian response has been to formally change their nuclear doctrine so that they would be considered to be in a state of war legally against any country that allowed Ukraine to use their missiles against Russia. In other words, essentially, Russia is claiming that they're now at war with France, with the UK, with the United States. And also, the Russians used a medium range missile hypersonic nuclear capable directly against the Ukrainian target in Dnipro.
In other words, what we're seeing from Putin is, "I'm showing you what you're doing is moving towards World War III, and that's how I'm responding." Does that mean that Putin is actually escalating towards direct war with NATO allies? The answer to that is no. He wasn't doing that when he was losing the battle in Ukraine in the early months. He's certainly not doing it now that he's winning.
And he is winning. He has more troops on the front lines, including those from North Korea, those from Yemen, those that he's getting from other countries. Also, he's taking more territory on the ground in Ukraine at a faster pace now, more significant amounts of territory in Southeast Ukraine than at any point since the opening months of the war. Plus Trump is President-elect. Trump has said, "I want to end this war." And he is coming in just in a couple of months.
So what Putin is doing is not threatening World War III. He's instead showing off just how bad this Biden policy is, this existing NATO policy is. He's making it easier for Trump to pivot away and say, "I'm the peacemaker. We were heading towards World War III, this horrible escalation. I'm the guy that got the great deal done and look how brilliant I am." Putin is facilitating that.
Now, of course, to make that happen Trump still has to give Putin something that he wants. He has to give an outcome that is acceptable to Putin. And Putin's made clear, at least thus far, that he's not going to give up any territory that he has. That he's not prepared to accept that Ukraine would be able to join NATO. He's also said that Ukraine can't continue to have a functional armed forces which is something that would be completely unacceptable to Ukraine.
The devil's going to be in the details here. There clearly is an opportunity for Trump to end the war. He's promised he's going to end the war, and I think he can. I think he can create a ceasefire. The Ukrainian leadership has already made clear that they are supportive of ending the war, but they're not just going to listen. There has to be a back and forth conversation with the Americans. Seeing what it is that Trump is prepared to put forward, and whether or not the Russians are capable of accepting it, are willing to accept it. Even though it will look like a win for Russia compared to where they would've been under Biden, under Harris, or at any other point in the last couple of years.
Still, if you are Putin, there is an open question. You're taking land right now. The Ukrainians don't have the people to continue to put up a strong defense. Why wouldn't you delay this out for another three, another six months? Take more land. Try to get all the territory that you have formally annexed over the course of the war. Why not settle the war on your terms? A lot easier to do if you're winning than losing. And the question there will be to what extent Trump is willing to cause material punishment to Putin if he doesn't say yes.
And that's an open question. Trump historically has been willing to take easy wins that don't necessarily play well over the long term. Look at Afghanistan. He wanted to get the Americans out. He cut a deal with the Taliban. It was a deal that was clearly very advantageous from a military and from a governance perspective for the Taliban than it was for the United States. He cut that despite the fact that the allies were not supportive or coordinating. That undermined the US deeply. Biden then continued with that plan. And it was one of the biggest losses that the US has experienced over the last four years.
Now, that of course, was a loss that ultimately fell on Biden. This would be a loss that would ultimately fall on Trump. And so does he want to risk that? That's a very interesting question. And of course, you also have to look at Trump's staff because he can make a phone call with Zelensky and with Putin, but ultimately, it is the secretary of state, the national security advisor and others that are going to have to work out the details of that agreement. And those people, at least thus far, are not people that are oriented towards giving away the store to Putin. They're people-oriented towards mistrust of Putin, towards a hard line against the Russians, towards support of Ukraine.
I am thinking here that number one, there's a reasonably high chance that Trump can get the win that he wants, but number two, this isn't likely to be a walk in the park for the Russian president. The Europeans need to play here as well. And what will be important, there's been a few formulated conversations thus far between President-elect Trump and some of the European leaders.
They haven't gone very far, but they've also not blown up the bilateral relationships. Their ability to work with Trump advisors on Trump, and on a greater coordination of what an ultimate solution or settlement of the Russian-Ukraine war would be, will make a dramatic difference as to what extent this is sustainable. To what extent this leads to not only Ukraine that can continue to defend itself and the territory that it is left with, but also can integrate into Europe, can be politically successful as a democracy over time. And that NATO will stay strong and stay together and stay aligned with the United States because they don't have another choice. There is no autonomous European military capacity. It's either NATO sticks together or it fragments.
Those are all things that we're going to watch very carefully over the course of the next couple months. But for now, an escalatory period. And it's all performative and it's all oriented towards what happens when Trump becomes president. That's it for me, and I'll talk to you all real soon.
How Trump forced Europe's hand on Ukraine
Trump’s return to power—amid global wars, strained alliances, and economic tensions—could radically reshape the world order. It threatens to deepen rifts with Europe, complicate Middle Eastern conflicts, and push US-China relations to a breaking point. That might not be a bad thing, according to Ian Bremmer. He breaks it down on Ian Explains.
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
Nobelist Oleksandra Matviichuk on Russia-Ukraine war reshaping world order
Matviichuk highlighted that Ukraine is confronting not just Russia but an entire authoritarian bloc, including Iran, China, North Korea, and Syria. "Ukraine is not a goal. Ukraine is a tool how to break international order," she stated, underscoring that the conflict represents a broader challenge to global democratic values.
When asked about the future of US support, particularly in light of Donald Trump's re-election, she expressed uncertainty but affirmed Ukraine's resolve: "We don't know what will be the policy of the next president's administration, but what we know for sure is that Ukrainians will continue our fight for freedom. We have no other choice."
This conversation was presented by GZERO in partnership with Microsoft at the 7th annual Paris Peace Forum. The Global Stage series convenes global leaders for critical debates on the geopolitical and technological trends shaping our world.
Follow GZERO coverage of the Paris Peace Forum here: https://www.gzeromedia.com/global-stage
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Russia's President Vladimir Putin and North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un attend a state reception in Pyongyang, North Korea, in June, 2024.
Can North Koreans help Russia push Ukrainians out of Russia?
North Korea's state-controlled news agency KCNA announced on Tuesday that the country has ratified a strategic partnership agreement that allows Russia to use North Korean troops to help push Ukrainians from Russia’s Kursk region.
Ukrainian, US, NATO, and South Korean officials have warned in recent days that Russia has amassed a force of about 50,000 troops to try to evict Ukrainian forces from Russia’s Kursk and Belgorod regions – and they say the force includes 10,000-12,000 North Koreans.
The presence of North Korean soldiers could help Russia push forward with its offensive in Ukraine’s East. But beyond the ability of the North Koreans to draw Ukrainian fire away from Russian forces, it’s not clear how effective they will be on the battlefield. None of them has significant combat experience, and the Ukrainians they will be deployed to attack have been fighting in their country’s Donbas region for a decade.
In addition, throughout this war, Russian forces have faced command-and-control issues. It remains to be seen how Russian commanders can effectively coordinate real-time battlefield maneuvers with large numbers of non-Russian-speaking troops.
What does Russia give in exchange for North Korean troops?
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Stockholm, Sweden.
What are the global consequences of North Korean soldiers now appearing on the frontlines in Ukraine?
Well, I think first, it's a reflection of the fact that Russia President Putin, does have difficulties getting the manpower to man the front lines. He has difficulty recruiting in Russia itself. He's dependent upon soldiers, and evidently, he's now dependent upon North Korea to supply the front lines. I mean, that's a sign of at least long-term weakness in terms of Russia. Then the question is, of course, what has he given in return to the sort of dictator in Pyongyang? In all probability, high-tech and different sorts of military equipment. And that, of course, has serious implications or potential serious implications for stability on the Korean Peninsula. So there are consequences on the frontlines in Russia and on the Korean Peninsula.
What’s the nature of the agreements that German Chancellor Scholz concluded during his recent visit to Delhi?
Well, apart from bilateral German-Indian things, he was putting an amount of pressure on the Indians to move forward on the negotiations ongoing for a free trade agreement between the European Union and India. That's been negotiations that have been going on for quite some time. It's been a valley of tears because of slightly different approaches from the European and the Indian side. But it's clearly very much in the mutual interest to have such an agreement concluded, particularly since we don't know what's going to happen in the US. And more choppy waters when it comes to global trade. So let's see if there is any progress coming out of the visit. It remains to be seen.
Ukraine and the future of Europe
As Russia’s invasion rages on with no end in sight, Ukraine’s future hangs in the balance. Continued US support is far from guaranteed, and future policy toward Ukraine won't be clear until after the dust settles from the US election. Amid this uncertainty, the European Union has emerged as Ukraine’s strongest ally. The war is being fought only miles from EU borders and European leaders are working overtime to make sure the bloc is able to stand on its own, militarily and economically.
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sat down with European Parliament President Roberta Metsola, one of Ukraine’s staunchest defenders, to ask about its path to EU membership and the future of Europe’s strategic autonomy. Despite Ukraine’s financial challenges, Metsola unequivocally believes European enlargement is a “win-win,” pointing to Poland’s successful trajectory after it joined the EU in 2004. There is still a lot of work to do to strengthen Europe’s voice on the global stage, Metsola admits, and the EU has a responsibility to show the world it can lead by example.
“We make it so difficult for countries to join the European Union, but then let the countries that are inside of Europe do whatever they like,” Metsola says, “We don't have rules to make sure that our basic tenets, fundamentals of democracy work.”
Watch the full episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer: Can Europe become a global superpower?
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy addresses lawmakers as he presents the so-called 'Victory Plan' during a parliament session, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine October 16, 2024.
Zelensky lays out his “victory plan” at home and in Europe
On Wednesday, President Volodymyr Zelensky presented his much-discussed “victory plan” to Ukraine’s parliament. On Thursday, he’ll discuss it at a European summit. This “peace through strength” plan has five central elements:
- Ukraine is invited to join NATO.
- Allies help strengthen Ukraine’s military, give it permission to use the long-range weapons they provide against targets inside Russia, and allow Ukrainian forces to continue their occupation of parts of Russian territory until Vladimir Putin agrees to negotiate.
- Ukraine and its allies use a non-nuclear strategic deterrent package to contain Russian aggression.
- The US and EU agree to protect Ukraine’s critical natural resources.
- After the war ends, Ukrainian troops replace some US troops stationed across Europe.
Zelensky said there are also secret parts of the plan to be shared only with key allies.
For now, much of this roadmap remains unrealistic. Most NATO leaders remain cautious about any action that might persuade Putin to expand the conflict beyond Ukraine’s borders.
By articulating what Zelensky believes it would take for Ukraine to earn “victory” – the complete withdrawal of all Russian forces from Ukrainian land – he’s again warning his country’s allies that Russia must be forced to the bargaining table.
By insisting this plan could lead to victory “by next year,” he hopes to increase Ukrainian public confidence that its forces can still win.
But Zelensky’s presentation also implies to Ukraine’s lawmakers and the country’s people that unless the country’s “partners” ensure these conditions are met, Ukraine will eventually have to offer concessions of its own – including a de facto recognition that Russia will keep at least some of the land its forces now occupy – if peace is to be achieved.