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Ukraine and the future of Europe
As Russia’s invasion rages on with no end in sight, Ukraine’s future hangs in the balance. Continued US support is far from guaranteed, and future policy toward Ukraine won't be clear until after the dust settles from the US election. Amid this uncertainty, the European Union has emerged as Ukraine’s strongest ally. The war is being fought only miles from EU borders and European leaders are working overtime to make sure the bloc is able to stand on its own, militarily and economically.
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sat down with European Parliament President Roberta Metsola, one of Ukraine’s staunchest defenders, to ask about its path to EU membership and the future of Europe’s strategic autonomy. Despite Ukraine’s financial challenges, Metsola unequivocally believes European enlargement is a “win-win,” pointing to Poland’s successful trajectory after it joined the EU in 2004. There is still a lot of work to do to strengthen Europe’s voice on the global stage, Metsola admits, and the EU has a responsibility to show the world it can lead by example.
“We make it so difficult for countries to join the European Union, but then let the countries that are inside of Europe do whatever they like,” Metsola says, “We don't have rules to make sure that our basic tenets, fundamentals of democracy work.”
Watch the full episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer: Can Europe become a global superpower?
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy addresses lawmakers as he presents the so-called 'Victory Plan' during a parliament session, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine October 16, 2024.
Zelensky lays out his “victory plan” at home and in Europe
On Wednesday, President Volodymyr Zelensky presented his much-discussed “victory plan” to Ukraine’s parliament. On Thursday, he’ll discuss it at a European summit. This “peace through strength” plan has five central elements:
- Ukraine is invited to join NATO.
- Allies help strengthen Ukraine’s military, give it permission to use the long-range weapons they provide against targets inside Russia, and allow Ukrainian forces to continue their occupation of parts of Russian territory until Vladimir Putin agrees to negotiate.
- Ukraine and its allies use a non-nuclear strategic deterrent package to contain Russian aggression.
- The US and EU agree to protect Ukraine’s critical natural resources.
- After the war ends, Ukrainian troops replace some US troops stationed across Europe.
Zelensky said there are also secret parts of the plan to be shared only with key allies.
For now, much of this roadmap remains unrealistic. Most NATO leaders remain cautious about any action that might persuade Putin to expand the conflict beyond Ukraine’s borders.
By articulating what Zelensky believes it would take for Ukraine to earn “victory” – the complete withdrawal of all Russian forces from Ukrainian land – he’s again warning his country’s allies that Russia must be forced to the bargaining table.
By insisting this plan could lead to victory “by next year,” he hopes to increase Ukrainian public confidence that its forces can still win.
But Zelensky’s presentation also implies to Ukraine’s lawmakers and the country’s people that unless the country’s “partners” ensure these conditions are met, Ukraine will eventually have to offer concessions of its own – including a de facto recognition that Russia will keep at least some of the land its forces now occupy – if peace is to be achieved.
Ukraine war: What freedom looks like
In Ukraine, freedom is not some abstract concept studied by philosophers and poets.
Thousands of Ukrainians have fought and died to preserve their country's hard-earned freedoms, says historian and author Timothy Snyder. "There's this Ukrainian word “de-occupation,” which they tend to say instead of liberation. And that really gets you thinking about freedom as positive because, sure, you can de-occupy, and it's important that the torture stops, and the deportations stop, and the kidnapping of children stops. But the word de-occupation reminds you that that is still just the beginning. You have to clear the rubble and rebuild the playgrounds, and the buses and the trains have to start running again."
In a wide-ranging interview with Ian Bremmer for the latest episode of GZERO World, Snyder talks about how Ukrainians view freedom differently from many in the West. For them, it is a means to an end rather than the end itself. Sure, they need freedom from Russian aggression, Snyder says. But that's only step one. True freedom is about the liberties we can enjoy, like a train running on time and taking a child to a playground. That's the kind of freedom, Snyder says, that Ukrainians are fighting to protect.
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
Ukraine's tech use against Russia is revolutionizing warfare
The war in Ukraine is completely changing modern warfare. Armies increasingly rely on technology like drones and cyber intelligence instead of tanks and artillery to achieve military goals. On GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Admiral James Stavridis says warfare is “shapeshifting in front of our eyes” in Ukraine.
On the same battlefield, soldiers are digging WWI-style trenches while also using artificial intelligence and unmanned systems. These new technologies have allowed Ukraine, a country without an army, to take down Russia’s flagship missile-guided cruiser in the Black Sea. The US is learning battle-tested strategies from Ukraine’s army, and Stavridis predicts that in the next four years, we’ll see much less military spending on armies and personnel. Instead, the focus will shift to new technology and the experts who can deploy it.
“This is the new triad of warfare,” Stravridis says, “It’s unmanned systems, cyber and artificial intelligence, and special forces.”
Watch the full interview with Admiral Stavridis on this episode of GZERO World: The future of modern warfare
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don''t miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy delivers a speech during United Nations Security Council at the United Nations Headquarters in New York, United Sates of America on September 24, 2024.
Zelensky snubs China’s peace push, Trump vows to end war “very quickly”
Switzerland’s foreign ministry expressed support for the peace plan China and Brazil are pushing to end Russia’s war in Ukraine on Sunday, but it’s a non-starter for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who said he “cannot understand the logic of Switzerland’s decision.”The plan would require Ukraine and Russia to begin negotiations in an international peace conference without any guarantee of Ukraine retaining its territorial integrity.
After the plan was pitched at the UN General Assembly on Friday, Zelensky said that proposing “alternatives, half-hearted settlement plans, so-called sets of principles” would only allow Moscow to continue waging war. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken was equally dismissive of Beijing’s efforts,commenting that “China is allowing its companies to take actions that are actually helping Putin continue the aggression.”
Meanwhile, at Trump Tower…
Zelensky also met with Republican presidential contender Donald Trump on Friday, hoping to shore up his support amid weakening resolve from key Republicans. Trump promised to settle the war "very quickly" if elected in November, claiming a good relationship with both Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin.Zelensky described the meeting as “very productive,” stating on X: “We share the common view that the war in Ukraine must be stopped. Putin cannot win. Ukrainians must prevail.”Democratic presidential nominee and U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris shakes hands with Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky, as they meet in the Vice President's Ceremonial Office in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building on the White House campus in Washington, on Sept. 26, 2024.
Hard Numbers: US sends billions to Ukraine, Poland’s PM takes aim at beavers, NYC adopts new tool to battle rats, Japan finds longtime death row inmate innocent
120,000: You’ve heard of the war on drugs, the war on poverty, the war on terror. But what about the war on beavers? Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk is publicly blaming the country’s 120,000 beavers for exacerbating the deadly floods that battered central Europe and killed at least 16. Tusk called on Poles to “do whatever” to protect dikes, after saying beaver dams can damage riverbanks and weaken levees. “Beaver experts” (yes, they’re a thing) say that only a small percentage are problematic and that their dams can actually help slow river flows.
12: Speaking of a war on rodents, New York City is getting a new tool for its war on rats (a war it’s always losing). The city council passed a bill introducing rat contraceptives in a 12-month pilot problem. The bill’s sponsor, Council Member Shaun Abreu, says, “We can’t poison our way out of the rat problem, but we can certainly do a lot of damage trying.”
46: The world’s longest-serving death row inmate — Japan’s Iwao Hakamada — was acquitted after decades in solitary confinement for the alleged murders of his boss, the man’s wife, and their children. After 46 years of living on death row, he was freed in 2014 and granted a retrial. That trial has now proven that investigators fabricated the original evidence used against him. Japan and the United States are the only members of the G7 who still use the death penalty.Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy addresses the 79th United Nations General Assembly at U.N. headquarters in New York, U.S., September 25, 2024.
Zelensky vies for the world’s attention at UN, as Russia resets its nuclear red line
UNITED NATIONS – When Volodymyr Zelensky addressed the sparsely populated United Nations General Assembly Hall on Wednesday, he cast Russia’s war in Ukraine as a threat to Europe and beyond – warning of the rising threat of nuclear disaster, and the potential for the war to spread into Eastern Europe. The GA’s empty chairs reflected the problem Zelensky’s speech sought to address: As the situation in the Middle East spirals out of control, much of the world’s attention has turned away from Ukraine.
The 46-year-old leader condemned Russia’s targeting of his country’s infrastructure grid, saying that “80% of its energy system [is] gone.” He said the attacks have not only exposed millions of Ukrainians to a brutal winter without electricity, but also put Ukraine’s nuclear power plants at risk. Zelensky accused Putin of trying to disconnect its Zaporizhzia nuclear plant from the power grid, putting Europe one drone strike away from “nuclear disaster” where “radiation will not respect state orders.”
Zelensky has used this week’s trip to outline a “victory plan” – a plan that includes more money and firing US-made long-range weapons deep inside Russia to strengthen Ukraine’s position enough to force Russia to the negotiating table. Aware that battlefield help won’t be enough to force Vladimir Putin to cut a deal over Ukraine’s future, Zelensky has also asked the West to use economic, political, and diplomatic pressure to force Russia to the bargaining table.
Biden and Zelensky will meet to discuss the plan on Thursday. In anticipation, Russia updated its nuclear doctrine on Wednesday to say it should be able to use nuclear weapons if attacked by a state backed by nuclear power, although this “red-line” rhetoric may just be meant to deter Biden from granting Ukraine use of the long-range weapons.
It’s tempting to ignore yet another Russian threat of retaliation. After all, Ukrainian troops have invaded and now occupy about 500 square miles of Russian land. If Ukraine’s surprise invasion of Russia and the inability of Russian forces so far to push them out hasn’t provoked a deadly escalation from Moscow, what Russian action should Western governments fear?
But the Kremlin spokesman stands on firmer ground in arguing that it’s “impossible to force Russia into peace.” Putin has staked all of his personal political credibility on the restoration of Russian control over Ukraine, and he has reason to believe Russia can still win the war.
Today, there’s no evidence that Putin faces any internal threat to his leadership. But negotiating away land he claims is part of Russia could expose the aging president to challenges from within Russia’s political and economic elite.
Can Zelensky's 'victory plan' bring peace to Ukraine?
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Stockholm, Sweden.
First question, is Zelensky's finalized 'victory plan' realistic to bring peace to Ukraine?
Well, the peace plan that he's talking about is a proposal that he's going to present to President Biden at the meeting in UN in the next few days. They are there for the UN General Assembly, and it consists essentially of beefing up Ukraine's military capabilities with the possibility to use more long-range weapons and other things in order to substantially increase the military difficulties that Russia already having. Thus, possibly, hopefully, making it certain, making it clear to the Kremlin that there's no way to victory and that they have to sit down and agree to something that is acceptable and that can be called peace of some sort. Will this work? Remains to be seen, to put it in the mildest possible way.
Second question, why is there backlash against EU's anti-deforestation law?
Well, it's not unique for that particular one. I mean, all of the legislation for the so-called Green Deal that was decided due to the last five years, a lot of it is fairly complicated and has significant burdens on industry in order to reporting requirements and all of those. That includes the deforestation law. So there is a push to say, "Well, well it's all good. But let's delay it somewhat so that business has the possibility of catching up with all of the requirements." You will see that debate about several aspects of the Green Deal. It doesn't endanger the deal itself, but it perhaps streamlines and perhaps delays it somewhat.