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Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy meets with U.S President Trump in the Hague during the NATO Summit on Wednesday June 25, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Ukraine to get key US weapons again, Trump makes fresh tariff threats, Afghan refugees under triple threat
Now Zelensky has a reason to say ‘thank you’
In a major White House U-turn, US President Donald Trump declared that his government would resume sending key defensive weapons – including Patriot missiles – to Ukraine. The move, which undoes a Pentagon order from last week to pause the shipments, is a big win for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, as Ukraine has recently been suffering Russia’s worst aerial attacks of the entire war. The decision also reflects Trump’s growing impatience with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has rebuffed White House calls for meaningful talks on a ceasefire.
Trump’s latest tariff extravaganza
The Trump administration has announced a new schedule of tariffs on 14 countries, which appears to replace some of the “reciprocal tariffs” that he announced on April 2. While the rates are similar to those earlier ones – standouts include 25% rates on close US allies Japan and South Korea – Trump has also extended the deadline for negotiations from July 9 until Aug. 1. A preliminary deal with the EU, a major trading partner which has played a bit of hardball with Trump, is reportedly close, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said further announcements are due in the next 48 hours.Afghan refugees face triple deportation threat
Iran plans to deport at least one million more people back to their home country of Afghanistan, adding to the 1.2 million already deported from both Iran and Pakistan this year. The move is part of a larger crackdown on the millions of migrants from Afghanistan, many of them undocumented, who have fled war to settle in both countries over the past two decades. Meanwhile, Germany has also pledged to increase deportations to Afghanistan amid rising anti-immigrant sentiment. Aid groups warn that Afghanistan is ill-prepared to cope with the arrivals.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is pictured at the Group of Seven summit venue in Kananaskis, Canada, on June 17, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Disappointing day for Zelensky, Tensions flare on Thailand’s border, Armenia and Turkey turn a new leaf
Bad day for Zelensky
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky left the G7 without getting a meeting with US President Donald Trump. To add insult to injury, the Trump administration has suspended a working group meant to pressure Russia into speeding up peace talks with Ukraine. This all comes as the US is planning to send Ukraine envoy Keith Kellogg to meet with Russian-aligned Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko – the highest ranking US official to meet with the authoritarian leader since 2020.
Border tensions flare between Thailand and Cambodia
Thousands of protestors gathered in Cambodia’s capital of Phnom Penh on Wednesday to show support for the government’s decision to deploy the armed forces to the country’s border with Thailand. Tensions between the two countries have escalated in recent weeks following a brief military clash in their disputed border zone late last month, which left one Cambodian soldier dead. This comes as Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s ruling coalition appears on the verge of collapse over perceptions that she has been too diplomatic in her approach to Cambodia.
Armenia’s PM to make rare visit to Turkey
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan will meet Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan Friday, in a bid to repair one of the world’s most antagonistic relationships. The bad blood originates from World War One, when the Ottoman empire killed masses of Armenians. More recently, it has revolved around Armenia’s post-Soviet wars with Azerbaijan, a Turkish ally. Russian-aligned Armenia – a tiny, isolated nation – lost the last round of conflict with Azerbaijan in 2023, and sees rapprochement with Turkey as a way to broaden its ties to the West.Crowds at a rally for Polish presidential candidate Karol Nawrocki, the Law and Justice candidate, on May 29, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Polling day for Poland, China courts Pacific Islanders, Russia readies more troops
Poles go to the polls
On Sunday, conservative Karol Nawrocki and liberal candidate Rafal Trzaskowski will face off in the second round of Poland’s presidential election. There isn’t a clear favorite. A Trzaskowski win would give Prime Minister Donald Tusk a key ally for both his domestic reform plans and stable relations with the EU, while victory for Nawrocki would saddle Tusk with a determined political enemy who can block his legislative agenda.
China courts Pacific Islanders
At a gathering in Xiamen, China, on Thursday, Foreign Minister Wang Yi told top diplomats from 11 Pacific Island nations that Beijing will provide $2 million to help them adapt to climate change and speed negotiation of trade deals that would open Chinese markets to more of their exports. A joint statement following the meeting did not mention US President Donald Trump by name, but it did stress there are “no political strings attached to China’s assistance, no imposing one’s will onto others, and no empty promises.” Who needs subtlety?
Russia preparing its expected offensive?
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned on Thursday that Russia has massed 50,000 troops near Ukraine’s Sumy region, an area Moscow hasn’t threatened since the early days of the war. It is widely expected that Russia will launch a major offensive this summer to try to seize more territory and degrade Ukrainian defenses in advance of talks to end the war. It’s not yet clear whether Russia is simply creating a buffer zone to protect its Kursk region from future Ukrainian attack or it intends to expand the war into Sumy.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoǧan and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy attend a meeting at the Presidential Palace in Ankara, Turkey, on May 15, 2025.
So far, no steps toward peace in Ukraine
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky kept a low-level Russian delegation waiting in Istanbul on Thursday while he met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoǧan in Ankara.
Why is Zelensky in Turkey at all? It was in fact Vladimir Putin who proposed peace talks there in response to a recent European call for a 30-day ceasefire, but the Russian president is not attending personally. Putin’s decision to send junior officials is seen as an indication that he is not really interested in ending his invasion of Ukraine.
European leaders have warned that if Putin does not agree to stop the invasion, they will intensify sanctions on Russia and increase military aid to Ukraine.
But Donald Trump, who also called for peace talks in a social media post, seemed to reduce the pressure on Putin when he told reporters in Qatar that he was not expecting much from the meeting.
“Look, nothing is going to happen until Putin and I get together,” he said.
And while there was some speculation that Trump and Putin could yet show up in Turkey on Friday — a development that would substantially increase chances of a breakthrough — there was no sign of that by Thursday afternoon.
If that holds, the negotiations are unlikely to yield much of substance, and the basic deadlock will remain: Putin, keen to play for time while his army slowly advances, is demanding impossible conditions from Zelensky, while Trump, who pledged a swift end to the war, has grown increasingly frustrated with Putin but so far seems unwilling to apply more pressure on him.
Members of US and Russian delegations, led by US special envoy Steve Witkoff and Russian President Vladimir Putin, attend a meeting in Moscow, Russia, on April 25, 2025.
Putin and Zelensky’s diplomatic dance
Both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky have called for direct Russia-Ukraine talks in Istanbul this Thursday.
Behind these calls for talks, though, is a battle over whether the US will continue funding Zelensky’s army.
Here’s the bottom-line: Putin won’t stop the war. He hopes instead that US President Donald Trump will grow frustrated (or bored) with the quagmire and withdraw support for Kyiv. That, Putin believes, would allow Russia to seize more of Ukraine.
Zelensky will keep calling for a ceasefire to persuade Trump – who toyed with the idea of coming to Istanbul on Thursday – that Putin’s the problem, in hopes of keeping some US support in place.
In the Philippines, Duterte edges latest edition of family feud
The battle for power in the Philippines is fought between two families: the Marcoses and Dutertes. Monday’s midterm elections favored the latter.
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s partners look set to retain the Senate, but allies of Vice President Sara Duterte – who faces an impeachment trial – won more seats than expected. Duterte’s conviction is now less of a surefire bet.
In spite of the politics, House Republicans seek extra Medicaid requirements
When one House committee released its plan for adjusting Medicaid, it omitted the cuts that some ardent deficit hawks in the Republican Party sought. However, it still includes changes that could leave millions of recipients uncovered.
Politically, this is a risky move – polls show huge support for the welfare program. Fiscal conservatives in the GOP, though, will feel that the party must do it now, while they hold unified control of Congress.
Trump's weekend of geopolitical success
Lots of headline announcements from Trump himself, and the biggest one in terms of the markets is not necessarily something you'd call a success. It's more a backtrack, but a useful backtrack nonetheless and one that we're all glad to see. Trump, of course, kicked off this global trade war with pretty much everyone, but especially with the Chinese, where he was essentially talking about a decoupling between the two largest economies in the world, raising tariffs against China to 145%, meaning nobody's going to buy any goods from China. Chinese doing the same against the Americans, raising up to 125%.
China was not going to pick up the phone to call Trump, and he was surprised that they hit back. He thought that this was going to lead to a negotiation and much more careful caution from the Chinese. As you saw from a lot of American allies around the world, not the case. And so, not only did he get his own administration to respond and talk with the Chinese and say, "We'd like to engage in person." But also sent Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Jamieson Greer, US Trade Rep, by far the most capable on the trade side that are senior and report to Trump.
And after a couple of days of meetings in Geneva, we've got 90 days off, and we have 125% off the American tariffs. So, we're at, what? 30% or 115% off, or 30% for the Americans, 10% for the Chinese. In other words, trade can happen again. And a joint statement from the US and Chinese governments, which is very rare under any government, frankly, with China, certainly with an adversary, to show that there is no daylight on the desire to pull back against decoupling, and also to engage directly between the two countries over the coming months to try to ensure that these trade gets to a mutually more respectful place.
Now, what's interesting is Trump had been trying to push so many allies around the world to align with the US on decoupling from China as part of the trade negotiations, that obviously, that piece of the negotiations isn't going to move anywhere. Japan pushed back, most countries aren't interested, certainly not the Europeans. Now, it's not really going to be credible, and I think Trump will quietly drop it, and the markets of course shoot up as a consequence of that.
So, two steps forward, two steps back. We're kind of where we were before Liberation Day on US-China. Yes, there are some additional sectoral tariffs, and this is going to be costly. But on the bilateral relationship, frankly, not an enormous amount has actually changed. Okay, so that's not a win.
What do I mean that he's had successful time on the global stage? Well, internationally, there've been a bunch of wins. India, Pakistan, significant escalation on the back of this Kashmiri terrorist incident, with lots of Indians getting killed, Indian civilians. The Indians respond by hitting Pakistani terrorist targets, according to India, but in civilian locations, so they don't mind that Pakistani civilians are getting killed. Then Pakistan responded, then India responded, and the Americans stepped in and facilitated a ceasefire.
Marco Rubio probably his single win on the global stage that we've seen so far, helps him with Trump. He also announced there would be trilateral engagement going forward between the countries. That's not going to happen. But we are, I would say again, at the status quo ante on Pakistan, India at this time, the Americans facilitated.
The Houthis had been threatening US and other shipping through the Red Sea. The Americans decided to blow up lots of Houthis military leadership capabilities. That was the Signal Gate leak that came out. And a few weeks after that, the Houthis said, "Okay, we won't attack the shipping lanes anymore, as long as you stop attacking us." That's a win for the United States. It was facilitated by Iran, who's engaged in direct bilateral negotiations with the United States right now, and Iran in a much worse position geopolitically, the Gulf states would love to see that happening. They're hosting Trump this week. That's likely to progress significantly. Maybe even Trump will meet with high-level Iranians. We'll see if we get a surprise there. But nonetheless, that's all in a much better position than it was before. And so too relations between the Gulf States and the US. Saudi US bilateral relations, including a willingness to allow for nuclear energy and development in Saudi Arabia.
Lots of new investments that are going to be announced with all three stops. Yes, there's this unfortunate announcement of a gift that shouldn't be accepted from Qatar of a 747. And then that's going to wrap up the first trip that Trump makes internationally, as well as the release of the sole remaining US hostage in Gaza. And that had been driven by the Israelis together with the US and the US angry with Netanyahu, who's continuing to engage in a war and taking over lots of territory in Gaza and not allowing humanitarian aid in. The Americans deciding they were going to negotiate directly for themselves, and with success before that trip.
So, all of those things, announcements that are frankly welcome. And the one big conflict where we're not seeing progress is Russia, Ukraine. It is plausible that there will be a bilateral meeting between Putin and Zelensky on Thursday. Zelensky is calling for it, the Europeans, the Americans are calling for it directly. Let's see if Putin actually shows up, or if he says, "I want to do a lower level meeting to start." Either way, it looks very unlikely that he's going to actually accept a ceasefire on terms that would be remotely acceptable by the Ukrainians, the Europeans, or even the United States, which means not much progress there.
But at least Trump not willing to do a deal with Putin absent a ceasefire, which means the Americans, the Europeans, and even the Ukrainians are more aligned today than they were a week ago, two weeks ago. Certainly during that shambolic Zelensky visit to the Oval just a few weeks back. So, good news over the weekend, and some good news coming this week. And I'm personally delighted to be able to report some things that are positive about what's happening in Trump administration, as opposed to things that are breaking and things that are falling apart. Let's hope that continues. I'll talk to you all real soon.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer address the media after trade talks with China in Geneva, Switzerland, on May 11, 2025.
The US hits the reset button with China
Mother’s Day is a time to build bridges, apparently, as the United States and China both agreed to slash tariffs by 115 percentage points each for 90 days following talks in Geneva over the weekend. US tariffs on Chinese imports will plunge from 145% to 30%, while Chinese tariffs on US imports will sink from 125% to 10%.
What’s spurring a settlement? Both countries’ economies have taken a hit ever since the two countries started a trade war around a month ago.
Will businesses buy the truce? At the height of the US-China trade war last month, Apple said they will shift iPhone production to India. We’ll be watching to see if there’s any plans to reverse course.
Bloodbath or breakthrough? Ukraine demands truce before talks
Peace talks between Ukraine and Russia are tentatively scheduled for May 15 in Istanbul, where Ukrainian President Vlodymyr Zelensky says he’ll be waiting to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin.
But Kyiv insists that an unconditional 30-day ceasefire take effect as of Monday – a condition Moscow has so far rejected.
What’s the White House view? US President Donald Trump called on Ukraine to accept Russia’s offer to meet regardless of a truce, “to negotiate a possible end to the BLOODBATH.”
But does Russia really want peace? Iran is reportedly preparing to send Fath-360 missile launchers to Moscow, though Tehran denies this. If true, it casts doubt on Moscow's commitment to ending the conflict.
Speaking of the Middle East, Hamas said it would free Edan Alexander, the last living American hostage, ahead of Trump’s visit to the region this week. It’s unclear what Hamas is getting in return.
Doubts loom over Kashmir truce
India and Pakistan announced a ceasefire in Kashmir on Saturday after the worst fighting in the disputed region in over two decades. The US claimed to have brokered the deal; however, India downplayed its role while Pakistan lauded Washington’s involvement.
But can it hold? The current truce is fragile: leaders from each side said they were keeping the peace, yet explosions were reported in the area. There may be peace for now, but all parties have their work cut out to maintain it.
A photovoltaic power station with a capacity of 0.8 MW covers an area of more than 3,000 square metres at the industrial site of the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant, Kyiv region, Ukraine, on April 12, 2025.
The US-Ukraine minerals deal is finally done
Two months after their infamous White House fight, the US and Ukraine announced on Wednesday that they had finally struck a long-awaited minerals deal.
What’s in this deal? It creates a joint US-Ukraine investment fund to invest in the development of Ukraine’s rare earth minerals – which are used in electric vehicle batteries and other consumer and military technology – as well as oil and gas. Future US military support for Ukraine will be counted as part of Washington’s investment in the fund. Revenue from the natural resources extraction will be split 50/50 between the two countries. None of the proceeds of the fund will be used to reimburse the US for the roughly $120 billion in aid it has sent so far.
Will the deal help end the war? Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has argued the deal would give Washington a stake in Ukraine’s peaceful future, making it less likely that Trump would halt all US support for Ukraine’s defense against Russian invaders. Trump prides himself on his ability to cut big deals and will protect an agreement once signed. The president noted during a press event at the White House yesterday that the US presence in Ukraine “will keep a lot of bad actors out of the country.” That’s clearly what Kyiv is hoping for. The text of the deal recognizes a “free, sovereign, and secure Ukraine.
But this deal, however lucrative for the US and useful for a Ukraine desperate to keep Trump onside, doesn’t change the reality that Kyiv and Moscow’s visions for Ukraine’s future are fundamentally incompatible. That said, anything that keeps Washington invested in Ukraine’s defense will be greeted as good news in Kyiv.
One last step. Ukraine’s parliament must still ratify the framework for the deal before it becomes law.